Mini1147-Royal Mafia at the Round Table (Game Over!)

[Locke Lamora]

I'll get to that, hopefully I'll have something up in the next 24 hours. I think the fact that TS-me is incredibly unlikely is highly relevant to this discussion, though. I think the actions throughout the game bear that out and I think my actions yesterday alone are strong enough evidence that I'm not scum.

[Prosaurus]

Nevermind about the "LL is almost confirmed town" thing, I thought LL was L-1 when TS was voting him.

I'll be V/LA this weekend

Noted.

[farside22]

I can agree that it is possible that it was an attempted gambit however I do believe he is an awful scum player and therefore find the likelyhood of him pulling that gambit very low. The post prior to his vote and slip was made by Gorilla and essentially stated his disagreement with a TS scum-read, so what motivation does TS as scum have to confirm himself as scum when there's a reasonable chance he wouldn't get lynched throughout the game?

This ^

I was about to be lynched. There is no reason for scum to out themself.

What I meant by #3 point I made by the way (see this is why being tired is bad because I even had the days mixed up) is that LL didn't have much to say about TS on Day 3, but then pushes a case on day 4. Using comments I had already made on TS day 3.

In regards to LL. I asked him bluntly who he say scum with TS. This is what he stated

Farside: honestly, I suspect TS a lot more having reviewed NE's ISO, which is why I didn't really cover it at the time. I would have to say Duplicity's slot makes most sense as a buddy for me, particularly the Oso part. Read the post where he puts TS at effective L-1 (ISO 33). The tone is almost 'hey, you're not doing anything, I've got no choice but to call you scum'. I find Prosaurus' dearth of scumhunting to be scummier, but I'm having a hard time telling if he's just a newbie or he's playing the newbie card. Regardless, he seems like a less likely buddy.

Then suddenly it chances when I discuss my views on why I see Dup town he states:

I'm certainly not sold on a TS-Dup scumteam, but I think your reason for doubting Dup-scum is fairly weak.

Then finally

I have a townread on you; I think you've been more actively scumhunting and analysing than most players in the game and I find you more pro-town than Farside, and certainly than TS and Prosaurus, although the lack of input today (and yes, I know this is a hydra issue) diminishes that a little. I'm a little dubious about that post I stated from Oso but other than that, pretty town.

When I asked LL what changed and why the town read:

I have a townread on Duplicity based on their play. Being able to believe a TS/Dup team was based on Oso and not Duplicity. Can I see them as TS and NE's buddy? Yes. Do I want to lynch them before TS? No. I do not have a definitive answer as to who I think is the scumteam right now. Once I've reread everything and tried a few more combinations in detail then I might be able to give you a better answer.

This is from the same person who called my reasoning weak.


LL: You want to point to me the posts you made day 3 that should you were suspicious of TS.

[Locke Lamora]

So here's the thing. I've been rereading D1 and I really don't get the feeling either Farside or Oso is scum with TS. Prosaurus is awful, but there's just such a lack of scum intent. I'm going to pull up some quotes and see what I can make of it. I'll have loads of time tomorrow evening so I'll have something extensive up then, if not before.

To answer the question of why I think TS wouldn't want Farside lynched instead of him; because it was apparent that Farside and I weren't scum together. That would leave TS as massive favourite to be lynched because Quilford is confirmed town and Duplicity and Prosaurus were pretty much town leans from everyone at that stage. TS's lynch leaves more doubt in the minds of town.

Farside: you seem to be fixated with the fact that I thought Oso was the most likely TS-buddy based on interactions, which is a fair assessment, and separate from the one that Duplicity's play has been pretty pro-town, and continued to be pro-town throughout the events of yesterday. You know as well as I do that reads can change, and you're familiar enough with me to know that I don't spell everything out for everyone all the time. So yeah, my read changed. It's fairly obvious even from the first post that the TS-Oso/Dup theory is not based on reviewing who's had the scummiest play, as I indicate by calling Prosaurus scummier. I was not sure who could be scum with TS. I admitted I wasn't sure who could be scum with TS. I'm still not certain who's scum with TS even now we know he's scum. I responded to Duplicity's pro-town play by having a town read on them. It really is as simple as that.

As for posts where I exhibit doubt of TS, the quote in ISO 9 is the obvious one. There are also questions in ISO 4, 5, 6, 10 and 11 that indicate I'm dubious of how NE-TS played out and that I'm not at all convinced of the claim or the role given the setup. I didn't focus on it as much as Maxous because I thought Maxous was a pretty good bet for scum, and, as I've said before, I agreed with Rhinox that TS-scum was something we could deal with in LyLo if it got that far.

Answer me this: why would scum-Locke decide to go all-out bussing TS when the confirmed townie was convinced that TS was town?

[farside22]

LL: I know reads change, but I asked you who and your read went from Dup to dup town in the span of that day.
You also know that scum tend to kiss ass of the town and interact with them, not just to create the WIFOM for town to be paranoid by, but so that player thinks they are town.
It's also why I'm usually paranoid when a player starts to buddy me, which I got from TS/Oso interaction.

I'm sorry to one and all this may take me an extra day to put my points together. I will try and get online tomorrow, but my husband received some bad news and he needs me. There is a possibility I may not be able to get everything for the next 2 days.

[Duplicity]

Hope everything works out at home Farside. You can take your time putting it all together, we're no particular rush.

[Locke Lamora]

It's time for Locke's D1 quotefest! I'll spoiler this in a few sections to save you all the trouble of having to scroll down for several minutes. This contains quotes that I consider to be interesting interactions and things that gain town/scum points. This is not intended to be extensive, as I have already covered a lot of this, and I haven't bothered to quote some things when I know I've already brought them up previously. So, here goes:

Spoiler: D1 quotes, part 1

Rhinox post 38 I do this all the time no matter my alignment. How often do you see scum do this? What about players that are town?

Post 43 I get your reasoning on why it's scummy, I guess I just don't think about it in terms of covering my ass.
post 45
Funny enough when I do an RVS vote I don't roll a dice. I either pick a person who is a VI or someone I played with when I can't find a VI.
It's part seeing how they react to my comment and part just plain RVS with a purpose. I look at how they respond, if they respond, panic, non panic, casual, joking. It just gives me ideas that I put to the side and think about throughout the game.

Oso post 47 I don't see a contradiction. It looks a bit more jokey reading it. Ender's OMGUS reaction is a bit more odd.

juls post 48 Not a fan of following.

@twisted: Any scum reads from you? Anything standing out? Your post post 52 has people at null. I also don't see everything as RVS when 2 people are voting for serious reasons on Oso.

@Me=Weird: What do you see from EA that was scummy?

So far the person that I find scummy is TS. He didn't respond to what was going on the game. When things are going on he does a RVS instead of commenting on it.
Finally when asked about the reads it's null and nothing odd for Oso.

Next up. I don't like Jul's following of Rhinox in post 48.

unvote:
vote TwistedSpoon

Oso: how do you have a town read on TS? What is your view on the discussion between myself and Juls?

Farside makes an early push on TS for lack of contributions. Hard one to read, this; it's drawing attention to TS's failings, but at the same time it's an easy vote to make as scum to prod your buddy into contributing and then back off when he offers up something better.

..
@Oso: What is your read of TS so far?

Null for the moment. Mostly based on meta. The game I played with him was just before this one (Mini 1130 - A Fishbowl Invasion by Ninja Monkeys!) and he seems on track for the way he played there. He was town.

Newish, unsure, a bit directionless. Pretty much what I saw from him before. Your vote on him should wake him up though. Last game, votes and suspicions had a tendency to do that to him.

Similar from Oso here in a sense. There's more emphasis on excusing TS's behaviour, but the last couple of sentences are very much a push for him to contribute more. Oso gets more scumpoints for the fence-sitting and early effort to excuse TS's play.

I think it was IGMEOU = I got my eye on u. Having trouble entering the conversation twisted? How do you feel about the interactions between ender/erathos? me/farside? rhinox/oso?

yeah, thought it was IGMEOU
just seemed strange since I read EGMEOU twice
nevermind though

as for oso I see nothing particularly odd as of yet. I thought that He justified his reason and gave a counter-argument to support it. However I do realise that it isn't the strongest of finds from Oso, especially since it's so early in the game. It's a null tell for Oso, ender and erathos in my opinion

it's nice to see players like Rhinox and yourself are alert and reading carefully though. That's always a good sign. Like I say, the sooner RVS end the better

Only real post I see (Contains more than fluff). Don't find it scummy. BTW, what's IGMEOU? Can't find it on the wiki.

OMG, neil obviously gave himself the best role! SHENANIGANS!

Have no fear! Ender's here! VOTE: neil obvscum

Ender tells us to "have no fear". Having no fear in this game is tantamount to letting your guard down. Why do you want us to let our guard down, Ender?
VOTE: ender241

In the RVS, this is scummy how? I'm pretty new, please explain this.

Prosaurus with the first of many lacklustre posts that features no scumhunting and a couple of 'I don't see how this is scummy' comments. He doesn't consider TS's 'fluff' to be a scumtell, which suggests that he's simply not very good at reading the game critically, but this suggestion that he's too new to understand half of what's going on comes back to ping my scumdar later.

TS: What is your view of Oso compared to the other game you two were in?

in our last game Oso was town. He seemed town from day 1 and considered all eventualities and possibilities with many of his speculative posts and only when our town read on him began to falter, or when we ran out of viable players for the lynch did we end up lynching oso (we had a claimed watcher and a confirmed townie in myself, so oso became the lynch)

this is why it didn't surprise me that he included a counter-argument in his reasoning. Oso is just the player to counter the arguments of his critics before they state them I would guess. Of course it could be seen as scummy by some players, as Rhinox interpreted it as. But to me it's just reminiscent of town oso from our last game. As such, i have a town read on oso. But bear in mind it is a volatile read and is subject to change as we're only 4 pages in. The more pages we go through the more accurate our reads should get.

I hope that answers your question.

TS comes across as way too eager to please here and puts far too much effort in stating what is essentially a null-to-town tell with a caveat so that he can change his mind. Scum points to Oso for TS's cageyness towards his slot.

I don't mind being Day Killed,

why might this be?

vote: Twistedspoon

Farside's second vote on TS; unexplained, and immediately ditched in favour of an Ender vote. This is the second time that Farside pressures TS and then does not back it up with anything; it's more like a warning than substantive pressure to me, which is scummy. I would like Farside to explain why she didn't follow through on this at all as she doesn't give an insight into her mindset at all here.

@Rhinox

May main point is here: Basically boils down to what I see as slip. Several references, in my opinion, to him not believing Javert's claim but then acknowledging that he "..cant kill all off us."

My secondary reason: Javert posted here. Point #1 is close enough to what I was thinking of Ender's vote of Prosaurus that I didn't even try to put it into my own words really. Just quoted it and added agreement to it in my vote post.

EA has a post here worth looking at. Sheds a better light on Ender's actions.

At this point, I don't agree with EA's assessment though.

One other point of note. Ender may have made a soft claim here: Right before his NE vote

"I'll find out what he is tonight"

. For my part, I'm still processing that one. Could be awkward wording or an incomplete thought or a soft-claim. I haven't decided which one for myself yet.

It does look as if Ender is trying to draw Javert's kill right now though. I don't like that but until I think on it some, I have no opinion on it, not even a knee-jerk opinion of it.

Some spectacular fence-sitting from Oso here. I get cognitive dissonance from the last line; how can he not like Ender's play but not have an opinion on it at the same time? I'm just not buying that he has no opinion at all here. It's kind of weird phrasing in general; why be so explicit that he didn't even have a gut reaction?

I don't try to tie people together until at least one of them is already dead. Oso is less scummy than Twistedspoon, Prosaurus, and ender right now.

But you still think Oso is scummy right? That is what I read.
Why is what ender did scummier then Oso to switch your vote to ender?

It's the way he is presenting his cases thats off to me. When he attacks someone he presents it to the town instead of attacking the person outright and asking them questions. Am I completely off my rocker or does anyone else see what I see?

I don't see it

@Juls: It's not anti-town to agree with someone, I usually find scum using others views and buddying up in scum and I recall you doing that in our last game to another player (buddying up)
Nothing so far screams town reading you. Your case on Me=Weird doesn't make sense to me either.

I know some scum will gambit to look town. It's possible ender is scum with a gambit because he's at L-2 that he's hoping for someone to vote so as scum that he could hammer to neuter the claimed vig. But the first time doing it doesn't make sense as scum for there is no reason for the gambit.
hmmmmm,,,, I need to think on this a bit.


Maxous: You seemed like you had a theory on another player then dropped it and had a case on ender (that was already discussed) and EA. What is with the hmmm on TS then dropping it?

The last line from Farside is the first in the line of posts I spotted from her questioning people on a change of attitude towards TS. This becomes a recurring trend throughout D1 and I got the vibe that she was trying to make a point of people having inconsistent attitudes towards TS. Again, this is something that I consider a town-tell on the face of it, but more scummy given the lack of apparent connection between what I believe to be a scumread on TS and her opinion of these other players.

..
i can see a theme in this game, that everything is one-shot :/

Where did you get that idea from? I checked back back and unless I missed something Javert specifically declined to say if his role was normal or one shot.

Alright my role is.... One-shot cop.

I would say I don't know what to think of that except I do. I think it smells. If scum, he only has to sell one innocent that can easily be killed later. He doesn't get caught in the confirming more townies than scum can kill loop.

Have a considerable amount of work to do today but I'm not going to remove my vote yet. Seriously considering suspending my personal policy of leaving claimed PRs alone Day 1 in this case.

Pending a re-read to make sure I haven't gotten the wrong impression, my thoughts right now are that Ender has been playing in a way that would tend to point that he has placed a higher priority on his own survival that would be normal for just plain town. Points to scum or, oddly enough, town protecting a power role.

But the way he has been playing: Vote hopping. Very little reasoning or thinking at all, behind his votes. He's mainly been reacting rather than acting.....

If I can fit his play into his role, then I will unvote but that is going to take a re-read that I'll do during the day or after work.

First part from Oso is town points in my book. Several players skip over TS saying this, but Oso calls him out on this and it gives me an impression of genuine suspicion as to where he got this information. Granted, this could come from scum wondering what the hell TS is talking about, but I just find bringing it up alone to be pro-town.

Second part is not so good as we get a stack more fence-sitting. So Ender could be telling the truth or fake-claiming. Congratulations for stating the obvious and contributing absolutely nothing conclusive at all to the discussion in the same post, Oso. Yeah, maybe this is town just trying to make up their mind, but given that it's not the first or last time in which Oso provides relatively detailed comment with no conclusion, standing back and waiting as other people take stances wins quite a few scumpoints from me.

I suggest we park a noose around Twistedscum's neck.

Agreed.

---
@Maxous: PATIENCE! lets take care of obv scum twistedspoon first, then we can work out which one of {

Javert

, Oso, farside22, Me=Weird, Necessary Evil} were scum on the easy to wagon ender. EA and ender are both town btw.
---
Question for you - why do the actions you are accusing EA and ender of make them scummy? In my experience, those things are not really things I see scum partners do, like, ever.

1) Why? He's doing about as much as I am.
2) EA+Ender+Rhinox seem to be banding together. 3 people. Hmmmmm...
3) If they are both scum, maybe they'd do that because they know it's uncommon and won't be suspected.

Oh, Prosaurus. This post makes me realise that never have I given a player so much towncred despite the fact (or maybe because) they've done so many anti-town things. Let's break this down:

1. Prosaurus defends TS by

saying they've been about equally useless.

This is the kind of comment that makes me wonder why someone would play mafia. The only reason he gets townpoints for this is because he's basically saying he's as good a vig target as TS, and that's somewhat diminished with TS flipping RB.
2. So Prosaurus has no real scumhunting or scumreads for pages on end and now he's identified a whole scumteam? What I don't like about this is that instead of focusing on the point Rhinox makes (which is a good one about an easy wagon), he decides that Rhinox is now scummy with two other people.
3. Clinging onto his scumteam by providing a classic WIFOM defence. I think this is just null coming from Pro.

Spoiler: D1 quotes, part 2

Let's kick this part off with TS actually giving some thoughts (really, how did he not just get lynched or vigged? It's killing me reading back).

Right my thoughts from page 6 onwards; took me long enough :3

Javert's claim is easily provable. He already stated he would use this today.
Any doubts about this should be brought up if he "changes his mind".

When Javert first claimed I had assumed he would have used it by now. By the way he was swinging his claim around like a club I thought that he was going to use it soon. I guess it might just have been a ruse to stop lurkers lurking. Anyways, Javert, will you be vig'ing today still? If so, who are your scumreads?

Wow. I couldn't get on the site at all yesterday and now I'm greeted with a ton of new content. I'm getting caught up now.

then

UNVOTE: you're on now. As soon as your finished reading up, top scum please.

o rly? unvoting so soon? The slightest trace of NE and you unvoted, before any content of his too. Ah well, you've claimed cop, so i guess it doesn't matter too much.

ender241 voted Javert for not answering questions and Oso makes a compelling case for ender, but I don't think Oso is town and I'm not going to sheep his read whithout a strong town read on him.

What makes you think oso is not town (and therefore scum). You didn't really explain this and why you didn't include him in your contenders for your vote or top scum as Ender asked you to.

Oso, what i dislike is the fact that he says he is going to kill today. If you want to DayVig you should wait until we have pretty much confirmed scum.

I'll find out what he is tonight.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Necessary Evil stop lurking, start posting.

So are you a cop or scum?

And is there a reason why I should care about being Day Killed? I don't see one.

This post hit a bad note with me. If ender had accidently revealed his role prematurely, don't point it out for scum to find

claiming

now

means I get to actively enforce posting content.

Seems like a weak reason to claim vig so early; to stop a lurker lurking. :/
It's usually only millers that i see claiming as early as you did

Dayvig me then.

I don't understand why you posted this. to annoy javert, or do you not believe his claim?

4 strong reasons there why his claim is not false:

• No reason, that I can think of, for scum to claim just out of the blue like that, especially not a day role where we can see the result in-thread.
  
• He has committed himself in such a way that he can't really back out of it. So he's not bluffing about being able to kill. He can day kill.
  
• He has shut off his options. Rarely (I mean as in never) have I personally seen scum shut off their options as completely as that this early in the game.
• He never does mention vigging anyone who votes him.

From where I stand right now, Javert is exactly what he claims to be.

:goodposting:
It doesn't matter though really if his claim is false at this moment in time though, since he'll be making his kill before the end of the day

Hey Javert, you said you'd vig someone for 4 days without content?

Well Klazam has gone the entire game without content

, so you know what to do.

you want to vig klazam?
Wasn't he v/la

anyways, I don't like directing the vig. I can see scum doing that easily and with good reason to do so.

question: in theory might it be possible to have a daykill scum?

I've seen it in a theme game before.

so might it be possible to appear in a mini game? If so Javert might not be confirmed town even if he does vig kill today; especially if he doesn't get NK'd

Good game so far. Keep it up!

what the-
what is this supposed to mean?
We've had 2 PRs outed and no scum dead yet. We have no indication of how close we are to catching scum

Oh yeah, Twistedspoon is totally scum. Look at his posts between his Javert vote and his unvote. He doesn't attack Javert, he doesn't question Javert, he doesn't push the Javert wagon, he's doesn't do a single damn thing to Javert. He accomplished three things with his Javert vote, and those things were VOTE PARK, VOTE PARK, AND VOTE PARK. He was vote parking on Maxous earlier too, and he's already looking like he's vote parking on NE. I suggest we park a noose around Twistedscum's neck.

Why would I want to attack javert? Maxous was an RVs vote; better than voting for the mod like some of you guys thought it'd be clever to do
vote parking on NE? Sure, as long as someone doesn't outshine his scuminess in my eyes.

@ EA and ender are both town btw.

you know this how? Or does the unity my wagon provides confirm this for you?

anyways, I've run out of time for today :/
G'Night

Points to take from this: TS tosses some suspicion in Pro's direction for pointing out Ender's claim. +1 to Prosaurus. He also seems dubious about NE's 'good game' comment, but isn't really committal about whether he finds it scummy. Important distinction here, as his vote is parked on NE without any scumhunting, but he casts doubt on multiple other players (including Javert with the possibility of a scum dayvig!!). Calls Oso's points 'goodposting'. +1 to Oso. TS clearly thinks the best way to play scum is to bus your buddies, or at least appear mildly antagonistic to them throughout the game. I don't think he says one complimentary thing about NE's play the entire game. Complimenting Oso's play seems out of character if Oso is TS's buddy.

The other thing to take away from this is that TS still casts some doubt on

the other player who claimed 1-shot cop.

This does lend weight to the theory that TS is an awful scum player. Getting Ender lynched or killed was never going to make people view TS as townier, and he should have known it.

Pro - newb town - ugh so many things I want to say and put my IC hat on about.

First voting even anyone for any reason is good. It brings discussion and if someone hammers for no reason during the first few pages they are more likely scum.
Hence voting someone even during RVS is a good thing for info.
Pointing out a soft claim helps scum.
Seeing Javert respond to the same most makes me cringe if Javert is town as I see more scum motivation then town for pointing out the soft claim.
Also I have a question for you. Juls states you are in another game have you learned nothing on how to scum hunt or things that sound off/scummy or seen anything in this game that you see that feels or reads off?
Your 3rd point in your last point is a good start, it's more theory then anything but expand more.
Anyways reading Pro I read someone a bit lost.


Rhinox: The question you ask to TS about asking/specualing others roles. EA asked the same question as TS. Why point out TS and not EA?

- I think of Javert's comment about the questions in this game when reading Rhinox. He is very low under the radar, but when I see this and read TS I believe my first theory is wrong and I see more careful, planing and questioning from a town prospective

Actually, paying more attention to your iso, every post you've made from iso 11 to your current post iso 17, each and every one of those posts, the main topic of your post is speculating about someone's role.

Need to looks into this a bit

TS:
11. Ask why Javert claimed? I don't see this a problem with this question.
12. I pointed this out as well. I saw it as role fishing.
13. how is this role speculating?
14. is hypocritical, see iso post 12.
15. answering the question posed by ender
16. more role fishing exposer
17. and I see speculating.

unvote:
vote: TS

I still think EA is scummy. Klaz would be the person next on my list of scum. He's made some weak points in his read and view that do not add up to his past game behavior.
The points against TS far outweigh anything else. Role fishing, hypocrisy, more role fishing and floating by with no real case on anyone.

Interesting one to look at from Farside here. First of all, Farside continues that trend I stated earlier about pointing out things people have done in relation to TS; here, it's Rhinox singling out TS over EA. This is where I start to get the impression that Farside is trying to tie people to TS; the problem is, I can't tell whether she's doing it from a town or scum perspective. The subsequent vote on TS certainly suggests that it's from a town perspective; the problem is that TS is being truly awful. His contributions are repeatedly vote-worthy, and Farside states as much. If it was more of a marginal situation and Farside was picking out TS, I'd be leaning strong town here. The fact is that TS is scumming up the thread with most of his reactions and is not doing any scumhunting on his number one scumread, which diminishes the power of this vote to give me a townread. I'm still giving Farside some towncred for this, though; the fact is that she's pushing on the mafia roleblocker on D1 with a vig kill around, and she even advocates Oso to vote him in her next post.

EBWOP: Forgot. @Farside, I'll take at look at TS. I haven't paid any attention to him so far this game.

Mild townpoints for Oso. Not paying attention to TS is scummy. Admitting you haven't paid attention to TS draws other people's attention to the fact that you're ignoring a scummy player, and with a vig kill around that's a doubly risky thing to do.

@TA. You can consider yourself at L-1 if you wish. I'd vote if we didn't have the question of Javert right now.

(As an aside, I checked. Javert hasn't posted anywhere on site since his last in this thread which was just a hair under 2 1/2 days ago)

I don't have anything original in my reasoning for your vote. Players have pretty much picked over your play so far and caught everything. Some things that do stand out:

1)Your posting lacks coherence. You are all over the place. No follow ups, no prods, no real pokes at players.
2)Votes. Same as above. The only vote you placed where there was a tangible and defensible reason was the vote of Javert.
3)Your vote of NE. Bogus reason. NE maybe wasn't posting as much as others (he[NE] even indicates as much) but his posts generally have content in them. They aren't fluff posts and he isn't posting just to keep his name active in the thread.
4)We are 12 pages and 10 days into the game and you have done absolutely nothing other than just stay active. You haven't made an attack or case of your own. Hell, you haven't even tried to borrow a decent case and reword it. Pretty much active lurking and with your NE vote, I'll have to throw in with EA and add vote parking as well.

The above pretty much, at least in my mind, takes you(Twisted) out of the unsure/null/newish player category and into Scum.

This is a post I cited previously to Farside to indicate why I thought Oso was the most plausible scum with TS. He declares intent to put him at L-1 with a post that basically grudgingly admits that everyone has been right about all the terrible things in TS's play. I read it again and again and it just sounds more like a coaching post. All four of these things indicate what TS would need to do in order to move himself back out of the scum category, and frankly, when reading this, it's hard to imagine just why Oso would have missed all of this.

..
There is something off between Rhinox, Erratus and Ender. Having a CC for Ender means his period of grace is over.
Unvote
vote:Ender241
..

Not that I disagree completely, I had and have some reservations about Ender BUT, how do you figure that TS's role is a direct counter-claim to Ender? I mean, they are identical but if the post of TS's you pointed out is a correct assumption based on what TS already knew about the set-up(his role). Having 2:1-Shot Cops isn't a real stretch.

I'd like more input on how Ender is automatically more scummy than TS because if you disregard their claims, both don't look very good but TS wins in the "scummiest" category hands down.

Point being, if you give TS a pass based on role alone, then you pretty much have to do the same with ender. Their roles are automatically mutually exclusive.

Also:@Maxous.

"There is something off between Rhinox, Erratus and Ender."

Gut? Or do you have references you can use to at least give us an idea of why you think the interactions between the three are off.

I think I'm leaning town on this post because Oso basically points out to Maxous that if he's going to suspect either of the cop claims, it should be TS, not Ender, given that TS is far scummier. He does somewhat reduce his townpoints by leaving himself open to follow Maxous' reasoning on Ender if need be, although not by much.

..
b) TS is just dripping with scum, but his claim fits with his speculation about a one-shot themed game and it looks like we're going to give him at least a night anyway. I wouldn't loose any sleep if he was killed/lynched, but if the rest of you are moving on, I'm fine with that.
UNVOTE: Twistedspoon

Oddly enough, after going back after TS's claim, I feel better about Ender's claim and TS's claim.

TS's "1-Shot Theme" comment makes more sense now. TS knew his role (if you grant that he is true claiming) and saw Ender's claim and made the assumption that all roles are 1-shots, it even makes his comment that he thought Javert had claimed one shot as well more understandable.

I too will wait on Javert before doing much more of note. 3 claims on D1 is fairly unusual in my experience. That all 3 seem to be PRs...I don't think I have ever seen that happen in a game I have been in before.

Part of this is pro-town in mindset, in that he's obviously thinking in the same way about TS as Quilford was when he was trying to defend TS with the speediness of the 1-shot comment, and the same way EA did when he did that about-turn on TS. The last couple of lines ping my scumdar again, though. It's such a cop-out '1 of these 3 are scum' type comment that makes absolutely no commitment whatsoever to who might be lying, and I've seen these many times from scum as an excuse for a contribution that involves no analytical effort.

Javert: Fair enough.

Let me be on record saying that i believe all three claims (D-Vig, and cops) that has been made today.

Also:

unvote vote Prosaurus

I no longer feel sure that M=W is scum. PS is the next most scummiest in my eyes.

Reasons????

FoS: farside22. Experience cuts against you here. I find it hard to believe you are really propounding the whole “it is antitown to point out an obvious breadcrumb and force a clarification.”

I don't ever agree with outting a PR. If I see something in thread I'm not going to point it out as I feel that information helps the scum team more then town.
I've hid information on PR's many times seeing as scum most of the time miss underling hints or worry about a doctor in the game.
But each claim, if there is a doctor, helps narrow down the field for the scum.

EA: How is ender's play any better then TS? Would you put them under the same category with lack of context?

Honestly I can't see 2 one shot cops. I've never heard of it. Juls broken down the possibilities, but I wonder do you (Juls) have a view on any one of those possibilities between the two players?

The last lines get Farside some townpoints. If Farside is scum, she'd know TS was bluffing, and making statements like this would lead to the finger being pointed at TS as soon as Ender flipped.

EA: Why are you ignoring Klaz who is pretty much doing next to nothing when it comes his reasoning? I see you mentioned this with Pro.
I see Pro at least going thru what everyone is saying and replying the the case against him.
Klaz on the other hand I feel. His reason's for voting for Pro was for role fishing but he doesn't say anything about TS who was doing the same thing. I have to wonder when people leave out those who when you look at their post and doesn't comment on them.

Also when he looks into TS he states the following:

I'm ambivalent on TS. Null for now.

vote Me=Weird

I really don't get this at all.

Vote: Klazam

@Oso: I can ask you the same. How did you get null read from TS, what changed your mind on him when you were willing to put him at L-1?

Third and fourth time that Farside questions people about their interactions with TS, and there's a definite implication that Klazam is attacking Pro for something that TS is also doing but Klaz is ignoring. So now this is where I'm getting a bad vibe. The only reason that makes sense is if Farside thinks Klazam has a reason to treat those two players differently. Either she thinks he's over-focused on Pro because they're buddies, or he's ignoring TS because they're buddies. There's no exploration of either here. Then we move on to Oso, where again there's an implication that Oso's read on TS changed because he was getting wagoned. You can't downgrade TS to second suspect and then continue to push on people for their attitude towards him. That's the kind of thing you do after a flip, not before. The attitude reeks of knowing TS is scum already.

..
@Oso: I can ask you the same. How did you get null read from TS, what changed your mind on him when you were willing to put him at L-1?

Um, I don't have a null read on him. He's is still firmly in my suspect list along with ender. Except for their claims.

Willing to give them both a night to see what they do with them. I would refer to this post, Those are still valid reasons for suspecting Twistedspoon in spite of the claim.

Ender I touched on again here.

..
Ender, because of the claim itself. I can see it as a great way to both avoid inadvertently having to sell more innocents than scum can kill and to help avoid a counter sometime after today. I know you(Rhinox) disagree with that but since we both seem to agree that lynching Ender is not the thing to do today, I'm not sure that matters.
..

Between those 2 posts, I mention 4 players:TS, Ender, M=W and Javert that I had some sort of read on. It was the rest of the player's that I put into the 'neutral/null' category because those are the only 4 players I have really looked at in depth. Something I plan on remedying later tonight, have plans for the rest of the day after I get my morning chores and such done. (Actually, the entire weekend has been busier than planned.)

Oso's position on Ender and TS is very difficult to discern alignment from. This attitude makes sense as town; if you're going to give one a chance to prove themselves, you do it for both. The problem is, it's a really easy out as scum. Oso-scum knows that Ender is a legit cop, so he can safely adopt the same attitude towards both players, excuse himself from having to put pressure on TS for the rest of the day and take things from there.

Oso: The last time you mentioned TS you stated you had a null read here

Now there was a case you switch over I was wondering why it wasn't brought up and how it went from null to scum

Ok, I get what you are asking now.

A lot had happened in the game since I gave that read. When asked about it, that was the read I had on him. Basically null since he seemed to be acting pretty much the way I had seen him act before and he was town in that game.

The reasons I gave for him being scum later in the game, didn't happen in the game I played with him before. He was willing to make votes and cases (or at least try to, even if it was just glomming to something someone else said he could legitimately agree with). He wasn't exactly what I would call decisive in his play in that game but compared to his play in this game, he was.

Quick ISO him in the game that is in the post you linked above, you will see what I mean.

This seems fair and balanced, using meta to justify his TS-read, it looks like well-reasoned pro-town play. If he'd come up with it earlier rather than when TS was already getting wagoned, I'd give him a whole lot more towncred for this.

Alright, sorry everyone for being away.

Top 3 scum from everyone.

Sure, You first. I'll help with your list by putting the first one in there.

1)ender241
2)..
3)..

You can put the other two in there at your convenience.

For me;

Me=Weird
ender241
Twistedspoon

in roughly that order. <actual vote still pending though as stated in my last>

This I really dislike. The vote should not be pending. The vote should be on M=W. Oso has stated why he's giving Ender and TS a chance. Just because he's declared he's running out of suspects doesn't mean he should be contemplating lynching one of the players that he was happy to give the chance to prove themselves. He should be voting M=W, or he should be working harder to scumhunt and push another wagon. This is fence-sitting again in a situation where his vote is a no-brainer.

Spoiler: D1 quotes, part 3

So your basic point there is that I advocated a no-lynch after a vig? Why didn't you bring this up when I made the suggestion if it was so all fired scummy.

The first part, I leave it to the folks in the game to iso me in relation to both Ender's and TS's claim. You will see it basically boils down to leaving the claimed roles alone to give them a chance to give us something but when asked directly about my reads, neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list. The just got put into a wait and see list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

This is after Ender has been vigged, and maintains why I feel bad about the previous post where he isn't committing to a M=W vote. If this is his attitude towards TS, a 'pending' vote should not have been necessary. The M=W vote should have been instant, and the fact that he still doesn't want to lynch TS, even knowing that Ender was a cop, suggests to me that he was stalling when he was failing to vote M=W, not genuinely considering any of the others.

well I appreciate the case on oso, but i think his play in this game matches up with his town play in our last mini normal.

We'll see though. He's probably clever enough to appear the same despite alignment.

@Suarus: You don't actually need to unvote, btw :/

Preveiw Edit: 3 claimed, 1 Confirmed.

What do you mean by this?
1 confirmed?
do you mean dead ender or Javert? I wouldn't say javert was a confirmed townie. That would be a very dangerous position for d1. Although it's much more likely that he's a town vig, he could always be a one shot scum daykill or summthin.

also 3 claimed? Enders dead, so it's as good as 2 with me and Jav

-1 to Oso again here. TS leaves himself open to do a complete 180 on Oso because he's 'clever enough' to trick TS into thinking he's town.

@ Erratus

Why is it a lie? Or even bad play?

D1, two claimed, 1-shot PRs. Being willing to believe the claims for the remainder of the day, hoping both are true, while still being highly suspicious of the players making the claims.

I don't see the problem here.

But you said in the quote that you believed TS's claim. If you believe the claim then why is he part of your top 3?

Farside continuing the theme of doubting the interactions with TS. This actually reads to me like town thinking the same thing that I'm thinking now looking back at it; something about Oso's attitude to TS doesn't seem right.

*Sigh*
He thinks they're scummy. But they claimed PRs, and if they're truthful like Ender, it's better to lynch someone else. Therefore, he's

willing

to believe their claims, incase they're truthful like Ender. But they still seem scummy. Get it?

Oso, this is what you meant, right? Or should I be agreeing with EA?

Yes, that is exactly what I meant.

Quid pro quo

This for that.

Action did change, I did stop voting or attacking either one of them, based on the implied promised made in their claim: usable results that will help town.

Attitude did not and will not change, at least in TS's case now, until something tangible has been given to justify the conditional trust given based on his claim of 1-Shot Cop.

So now Oso is not going to budge on his (actually very non-committal) position on TS until there is a result, essentially. All this is doing is setting himself up to stall on TS for the rest of the day.

Bah!
Juls it wasn't a lurker hunt for me. It was his lack of reads and scum hunting. Plus I didn't like that when he posted those that were rolefishing he ignored TS.
God I feel like I need to burn my notes and start from fresh again.

Unvote

While I reread a few things.

This one cuts both ways, I think. Klazam was a relatively easy lynch to push, but I can also see town getting frustrated that a pretty anti-town player had just been confirmed town.

Well, I looked at the breadcrumbs Juls pointed out and they are there:

{1}

M

y (hopefully triumphant) return to mafia has arrived! {2}See

a

few familiar faces: Rhinox, Erratus Apathos, farside22, ender24.

{3}Let's get

s

tarted! {4}Hmmm...after reading

o

ver the first few posts, there is no one better to vote than....Vote: Rhinox.

{5}I know, right, not

v

ery surprising?

Except I think Juls was off by a word in the fifth sentence of her crumb.

Vote Twisted
{1}

M

ostly a random vote, if you know what I mean. ;D

{2}Hey

a

ll, how much experience do you have? {3}I’m really

s

hitty on D1, because I haven’t figured out how to play well on D1. {4}I’m hoping that

o

n this game, I’ll do much better.

{5}We can all hope,

n

ow, can’t we?

No reason from my end to disbelieve Juls. Neither have set off any bells with me since the game started.

My vote remains on M=W.

As to NE, generally positive about his play. As in low probability of being scum. He hasn't posted enough for me to have it be a really solid read. His posts don't contain a whole lot of fluff though. Did a quick ISO of him and all I can see is a lack of posting from him. He does make cases and place votes, his posts have thought put into them.

+1 to Oso for checking the breadcrumbs. Kind of a risky post for scum to make about NE too, so leaning slight town on that.

I am convinced by the breadcrumb
Oso is still a null read to me though

NE is already my vote, so I'm cool with keeping it on him (for now at least)

I was slightly surprised when you claimed masons though. I had (wrongly)assumed all PRs were 1-shot by now :/

Just a little thing here; TS feels the need to respond to EA's insistence that Oso is scum. This gives Oso a scumpoint because TS doesn't have a claimed null read on Oso. He has a claimed town read on Oso. It's the little inconsistency that makes me wonder if TS is playing it safe with Oso.

May I point out there

is

infact a mason role which is scum.
May I also popint out that scum can talk to each other, and put in a fake breadcrumb incase of a situation like this.

This casting doubt on the masons is something I brought up multiple times in my Prosaurus ISO, so I won't go over it all again. Needless to say I think it's pretty scummy, and it does not match at all with the attitude Pro gave off earlier in the game, which was essentially that he didn't understand what was going on and he was pretty inexperienced. You don't go from that to aggressively saying 'hey, the claimed masons are definitely NOT confirmed town'.

I'm reevaluating the main 3 that people are talking about.

Oso - I would not lynch Oso. Although I found EA's point interesting it does not outway the scum hunting, questioning and POV's that oso has displayed today. He's evulated many people in the game and brought up cases that ring town to me.

NE: I don't care much for NE's reason's for finding MW scummy. Their weak tells (on is a stregth at best). He has found TS scummy most of the game and he defended his reasoning for his vote on ender well. However I see no strong scum reads coming from him.
MW - I have many issues with MW recently. He has called Oso town most of the day but when EA brings up a point he states the follow:

Maxous, can you please consolidate why you think I'm scum into one post. Thanks.
I can see Oso as an alternate lynch, seeing as how EA made a good point about believing the claims and still suspecting them.

He also barely mentions Klaz all day but has no problem jumping on the BW here:

Hm. I don't entirely approve of the ender kill.
Post #244: Klazam attacked me and prosaurus for "role-fishing". Scum often look for townies doing common "scumtells" that are so widely known, scum don't actually do anymore. And thus useless as scum-tells.
This, combined with not providing much reasoning for his votes, lots of short, content sparse posts and scum vibes, makes me think he's scum. He seems like the most likely of my scumspects to get lynched, and I don't like wasting my vote, so

Unvote, Vote: Klazam

Also he made a case on NE here but NE never stated it was rediculous and when he had stated something about Ender it was during the RVS discussion.
Finally he is attack on Pro looks scummy as I feel Pro is newb asking question and trying to figure things out but he spins it more into something scummy.

vote: Me=Weird

In short I find MW and NE scummy for different reasons. I find MW's post more scummy as I see him pushing on easy lynches and following BW without much reason.

Farside's choice of vote at the end of the day. You can see my thoughts on this in a previous ISO; the quick version is that Farside overplays the NE suspicion in the summary, which doesn't match the content of the post.

prosaurus and Oso are wildcards for me today. I'll give them a pass
The masons are forever unlynchable until proven otherwise
Javert gets a pass for the unlikelihood of a scum day vig in a mini normal. However I want to see him post again
NE and MW are the only remainders that i don't have town reads on. I'll live with one of their lynches today. I might later switch to him if his lynch becomes more feasible, but I'll stick with NE for the timebeing

Not sure what TS means by 'wildcards' here, but it sure as hell pings my scumdar that he decides to excuse both of them based on nothing at all. -1 to both.

I don't expect everybody to understand why I suspect MW. It's based mainly on the way he questioned Maxous. It's something I've done as scum before and I can see MW doing it in the situation he is in. It surprises me that you express this reservation and are still comfortable enough with the MW wagon to vote him in the same post.

This is based on the 3 main suspects for today. Your post, reaction and comments on ender rang truthful. I find your lack of push on anyone not already mentioned disturbing and would like a full view on everyone in the game from you.
MW however has done is follow BW's at least twice I have seen. He never mentions Klaz or Oso (expect to call Oso town) but has no issue voting him. That doesn't match up under any circumstance.

Reads a little like a prod to NE to contribute again. Very mild scumread.

Vote: Twistedspoon

.

Still doubt we would happen to wagon two 2-Shot Cops one after the other, and Twistedspoon has spent his last several posts (as well as posts before I used my shot) to try to undermine me as opposed to hunting scum.

Uhhh, wut?

Let's see. Javert claims, let Javert prove his claim as it is easily provable.

Ender claims PR, give him a chance to show us he's not lying.

TS claims PR and it's the same as Ender's but both are one shots so not a direct counter claim as there could be two one shots of the same type in a game, give him a chance to show us he's not lying.

Juls claims for herself and Klazam, so unusual a claim that no direct proof is really needed by players but like Javert's, easily provable if one of them shows up dead at some point.

Take this up again tomorrow Javert, after a night to at least give TS a chance to prove his claim.

Now Oso is firmly on the side of saying that TS is NOT getting lynched. Hey, where was this when he was 'pending' his vote? Scumpoints.

Take this up again tomorrow Javert, after a night to at least give TS a chance to prove his claim.

what do you mean prove? say, what if i was roleblocked etc.

and Twistedspoon has spent his last several posts (as well as posts before I used my shot) to try to undermine me as opposed to hunting scum.

how?
when have i tried to undermine you? I asked where you'd gone etc.

[/quote]

And finally, TS gets an excuse in just in case he can't come up with a result. The fact that this response is to Oso gives him mild townpoints, just because I can see scum-TS worrying that Oso is going to change his mind if there's no result.

Conclusions:

Prosaurus: does not review TS's play. At all. It's quite astounding how he manages to repeatedly ignore TS scumming up the thread, actually, and he's pretty much the same with NE. I don't really know what to make of this extreme avoidance, but the fact that Pro's scumhunting is generally way off base does muddy the waters somewhat.

Farside: I'm kind of going back and forwards on this one. There are multiple pushes on TS, which give me an overall townread, but I perceive a lack of follow-up on the slot at times which makes me a little more worried. Overall I get a stronger townread than the other two do based on interactions, but the repeated questions based on TS with a lack of connections being drawn almost look as though Farside wants people to think that other players are being inconsistent towards TS without drawing that conclusion herself, and that I don't like.

Oso: not feeling good about this slot at all now. It's the hesitation over the vote followed by the sudden adamance that TS is not getting lynched that does it for me. It doesn't make sense for Ender to flip 1-shot cop and for Oso to suddenly want to believe TS more than he did before. His timing of TS suspicion is pretty inconclusive and TS' interactions with him are almost entirely based on meta and suggest a desire to change his opinion at the drop of a hat. The NE interactions are not big, and Oso comes out pretty firmly with a townread, which does seem more honest (if misplaced) and reassures me more than his TS interactions do.

To come when I get more time: D2!

[neil1113]

Vote Count #1.0
Day Five

Locke Lamora

(0):

Duplicity

(0):

farside22

(0):

Prosaurus

(0):

No Lynch

(0):

Not Voting

(4): Prosaurus, farside22, Locke Lamora, Duplicity

V/LA

(1): Prosaurus for the weekend.

Prodding:

(0):

With

4

alive, it takes

3

to lynch.

Deadline

for Day 5 is

4:00 PM EST 06/21/11

[farside22]

dup and pro: Is there any reason either of you have not put for a case on anyone?
I'm looking a pro more on this.

Dup I still have a town read on you but your lack of effort today and just waiting in the wings is very off setting for me.

I did look into NE just to see if he had anything to say or comment and the only person he really said anything about was Oso and it was really just one of many BW he followed along with. I see now how he just took on what ever wagon or I should say wherever the wind blew looking in retrospect.

[farside22]

Looking at a few things in the game that I find myself question.

TS comments about Pro on day 4 looks horribly WIFOM. I believe he was trying to create a mislynch.
It doesn't make sense for scum to push on their scum buddy in MLLO.

My biggest problem with Pro is how he ignores TS. Nor does he say anything about NE on day 1.

However day 2 I try to say this nicely, if Pro was scum then why did he debate wether NE was scum with the claim from TS.
That makes no sense. Obviously with TS claim and flipping scum it looks in my view that the scum team had a plan and that scum would have road that wave. Pro didn't do that and discussed the problems.
God he doesn't even really take too much of a stand except to say

Ok. I think NE is scum. He's too aggressive and stuff. Er... Your role makes sense with the other roles (2 1-Shot cops instead of 1 normal cop) and with your posts. I'm not voting because that'd be a hammer, and Dupicity has requested for no one to hammer yet.

Why he didn't vote NE at this point.

Reading PRO I would swear he has done nothing that screams town. He doesn't mention TS or NE and then votes for me saying it's PoE without saying why he had the reads he did on Dup.


I feel like the 2 plus's on Pro is how he didn't ride the NE wave. I don't see why scum who had a plan would dance around and not vote NE. And TS pushing a very weak WIFOM case on Pro.

The worse part of pro is that he hasn't really put a case forth and seems to be floating by, which is driving me crazy.

I go back and forth on Pro because he action don't = town, but they don't = scum partners with TS/NE either. His play day 2 with the claim makes no sense as scum.

[Duplicity]

dup and pro: Is there any reason either of you have not put for a case on anyone?
I'm looking a pro more on this.

Dup I still have a town read on you but your lack of effort today and just waiting in the wings is very off setting for me.

I don't particulary understand your doubting or suspicion towards. Putting aside his interactions with Twisted which make him near-obvious town his insistance that Locke isn't scum at the start of the day doesn't exactly make sense as scum. He would know that his only way at winning would be by us msylnching and ruling out Locke leaves his only msylnch option to be us someone that he and the rest of the room had stated a town-read on and unwillingness to lynch.

Our minds over who we're likely to vote was made up a long time ago. We've mentioned multiple times that we see no realistic way for Pros to be scum with Twisted and I don't believe that Twisted was attempting to gambit with his actions yesterday making you town. All up we're near certain that Locke is scum however out of respect I always like to hear everyone out completely incase I've missed something and am indeed incorrect. His recent actions haven't shown us that at all, I've typed up a response to his previous post but kept it in our quick topic as I was considering waiting until his anaylsis was complete before posting however I may as well post it now.

Prosaurus: does not review TS's play. At all. It's quite astounding how he manages to repeatedly ignore TS scumming up the thread, actually, and he's pretty much the same with NE. I don't really know what to make of this extreme avoidance, but the fact that Pro's scumhunting is generally way off base does muddy the waters somewhat.

Earlier you mentioned that their avoidance or interactions makes it almost certain that they're not partners, how has this changed in your anaylsis now. You're attempting to say their avoidance reads as awkward and likely to be as partners without openely stating if you believe it's the case or not.

Farside: I'm kind of going back and forwards on this one. There are multiple pushes on TS, which give me an overall townread, but I perceive a lack of follow-up on the slot at times which makes me a little more worried. Overall I get a stronger townread than the other two do based on interactions, but the repeated questions based on TS with a lack of connections being drawn almost look as though Farside wants people to think that other players are being inconsistent towards TS without drawing that conclusion herself, and that I don't like.

You've completly changed your stance here. You stated previously that the conclusion of yesterday only makes sense as a gambit attempt by TS and that therefore Farside was mafia however this entire paragraph leads to the conclusion that you don't believe she's mafia at all.

Oso: not feeling good about this slot at all now. It's the hesitation over the vote followed by the sudden adamance that TS is not getting lynched that does it for me. It doesn't make sense for Ender to flip 1-shot cop and for Oso to suddenly want to believe TS more than he did before. His timing of TS suspicion is pretty inconclusive and TS' interactions with him are almost entirely based on meta and suggest a desire to change his opinion at the drop of a hat. The NE interactions are not big, and Oso comes out pretty firmly with a townread, which does seem more honest (if misplaced) and reassures me more than his TS interactions do.

1. If you believe it doesn't make sense for Oso to believe TS more due to Enders flip does that mean you believe that TS and Enders roles should have directly contradicted and therefore led TS to be highly suspected? Becuase that's the angle you're pushing with this however not once throughout the entirety of this game have you discussed Ender and TS's role relations.

2. You're refraining from taking a stance here, you state Oso's interactions are likely to be paired with TS but unlikely to be paired with NE which means essentiall you're saying you've gained and drawn nothing from your anaylsis.

[farside22]

I don't particulary understand your doubting or suspicion towards. Putting aside his interactions with Twisted which make him near-obvious town his insistance that Locke isn't scum at the start of the day doesn't exactly make sense as scum. He would know that his only way at winning would be by us msylnching and ruling out Locke leaves his only msylnch option to be us someone that he and the rest of the room had stated a town-read on and unwillingness to lynch.

I understand the TS connection. The rest of what you saying here is a bit confusing to me.
Also I get paranoid and feel the need to reevaluate things. I never feel things are clear cut.

[Duplicity]

I understand the TS connection. The rest of what you saying here is a bit confusing to me.
Also I get paranoid and feel the need to reevaluate things. I never feel things are clear cut.

I'll attempt to explain it again. Scum-Pros would KNOW that the only way he could win if one of You/Locke/Me were lynched. Pros came into today stating that he believed you and Locke were town, therefore Scum-Pros came into the day believing the most likely way he could win was getting us lynched. He hasn't attempted to do so at all. In other words, what does Scum-Pros gain from defending Locke earlier if he doesn't attempt to push elsewhere?

[farside22]

Ah.
I can't say i agree with you. He is very much calling you town yesterday. He even stated today

Yeah, I just thought of a problem.
FS is almost confirmed town from what TS did, but so is LL.
So who's scum? This almost makes me think TS did it on purpose.

This. Big problem. Does it mean Dup is scum? Cos I have a town read on him...
Looking forward to your guy's cases.

If he changed his mind today, that would be more scummy and would garner suspicion towards him.

Also he stated he was confused and thought LL was at L-1. I pretty much sense his confusion and getting things mixed up like that would be null for me. I have seen scum fake confusion so call me ubber paranoid.
The only thing that makes me lean town on Pro is the comments from TS yesterday about Pro and his weak push on him with the WIFOM.

[Prosaurus]

I've got alot of homework, that's what you get for having a weekend away. So once I've done enough for today (Should that happen) I'll catch up and post.

[Duplicity]

Reasoning for Pros being town is as follows: I don't think NE was double-bussing. I know I was wrong about him once before (ugh) but if you take a look at all of day 1, he votes TS over Pros - and TS was scum power. Also further proof of pros-town is this votecount:

Final Vote Count:
Day Three

Maxous

(5): Locke Lamora, Duplicity, farside22,

Rhinox

,

Quilford

farside22 (3)

Maxous

,

Twistedspoon

, Prosaurus

pros wouldn't double up with TS here, especially since the maxous wagon would have to be all town. If that's a town wagon, I'm an anime princess.

Regfan is busy so I'm probably going to be posting a case on LL in the next few days.

[Prosaurus]

Still busy, but pretty much all my work is due tomorrow, done or not, so I'll catch up then. Bear with me, we still have plenty of time till the deadline anyway.

[Locke Lamora]

Sorry guys, not been able to get on and give this any time for a while. Will respond to points and get to my D2 review tonight, hopefully.

[farside22]

Sorry guys, not been able to get on and give this any time for a while. Will respond to points and get to my D2 review tonight, hopefully.

Same here. I hope I can get some time in the next 2 days.

[Locke Lamora]

Right, some responses to Duplicity:

First of all, that post was D1 analysis. It was quite obviously D1 analysis and the conclusions are based on what I saw from D1. I believe that was clear, and I believe it answers a lot of your queries in itself. I'd rather not rehash the whole issue of changing my mind, so I'll just say this: if I see something in my rereads that makes me change my opinion of a slot, I'm going to be honest about it. Now, the more specific points:

On Prosaurus: I did not realise just how much Prosaurus completely avoided TS until I read back. You can see even from the posts I quoted that while there's plenty of focus on TS from other members of the town, Pro is not addressing him in the slightest. If you read it in its entirety it's even more stark. One of the main purposes of reading back is to review posts in the light of flips. So yeah, it makes me more uncertain about Pro's slot, because TS was really scumming up the thread and Pro was just ignoring it. I also don't remember saying that their avoidance made them almost certainly not partners, so I'm not sure why this is your starting point anyway.

On Farside: yep, I believed that TS was not so bad at mafia that he would fail to hammer even after being directly told earlier in the day how many votes it was to lynch, and with a votecount on the same page. My instinct when I came back and saw the hammer was that it was for show because it was so unnecessarily clunky and stupid in a situation where he had no need to do it. The logical progression of that is a TS-FS team, and that's what I was thinking when I started the day. Reading D1 again, I found Farside's approach to TS to be more pro-town than either of the other slots, a view which was reflected in my analysis.

On Oso:

1. I'm saying that Oso acted like he would still be willing to lynch one of the claimed 1-shot cops when he was stalling his M=W vote. Then one of them was killed and he came out vehemently against the idea of lynching TS. He gave no indication that he strongly believed both were town; I think the closest he got was saying he 'hoped' that both were telling the truth. So why did this change with Ender's flip? I've made the point once, but I'll say it again: Oso should have voted M=W when his vote was 'pending'. His reaction to the kill of insisting that TS should not be lynched doesn't match with his attitude prior to the kill. Therefore I think he was stalling for time when he was 'pending' his vote and he never genuinely believed that the cop claims should be left alive; he just wanted to wait and see how it panned out so that he wasn't seen to be coming out too strongly in TS's favour if TS got vigged. To put it briefly; Oso pretends that his attitude after the kill is consistent with his attitude before, and it's not. That's scummy.

2. My stance is that your slot is a lot more likely to be scum than I thought at the start of the day. The NE interactions redeem it somewhat, but the TS interactions are all kinds of scummy. That clear enough for you?

Will work on D2 tonight and tomorrow, if I don't get it done tonight.

[Prosaurus]

#1158
Well I haven't been here for a while, and cos I'm lazy really (So tired at the moment). I can't even remember what I would have said as a case anyways.

It seems that you guys think LL keeps changing his mind.

Any more questions for me? Any specific posts I should analyse?

[farside22]

I started an ISO just on LL today.
I never realized how badly things can look if you copy and paste from MS to a note pad. A few things I had to go back and check so this is not finished yet.

Post #4 » Thu May 05, 2011 5:52 am

Duplicity: what is it that makes you think NE/TS weren't bussing D1?

Prosaurus: have you read a scum QT from any of your previous games?

If people are still considering massclaim I say we definitely shouldn't do it. I don't see how it could help town more than scum at this stage.

During this post, LL was going after Max. I find this question to Dup odd as before this LL never stated any suspicion towards TS. Why ask the question? Did you think TS/Max scum team? If so why didn't you say as much?



LL: What was the point to ISO post #9?


LL: bring up TS role claim

I guess it's plausible. TS's flip would then confirm NE as scum, though, so the scum would effectively be conceding that they'd lose a member one way or another. My other issue with that is 2 1-shot cops and a mason pair is pretty powerful (if I remember rightly the stats indicate that vigs don't actually increase town's win chances, but I might be wrong). Either way, you've got to be thinking that any scumteam would have at least a couple of PRs to counteract those. I'd expect a Godfather with the two cops, so what else is there if not a blocker? If there was a Framer they just would have made NE show up as innocent. The only other thing I could see to plausibly counteract town's power is a rolecop so that the scum could find the PRs, and that makes me feel a whole lot worse about TS.

What I don't understand about LL if he truly feels this way, why didn't he push the point on TS further?



LL: vote on TS day 4 is horrible weak:

Yeah, you're just plain lying about your thought process now. You wouldn't 'vaguely remember' that Farside claimed VT if you KNEW she had already claimed and were deliberately waiting for massclaim to see if she claimed something else. I think that's enough for me to:

Vote: Twistedspoon

All the analysis he stated he was looking into and questioning and that is the best reason to vote for TS?

1. NE was BY FAR your most plausible investigation target. Had I been in the game at that stage, I would have been all over you for not investigating NE because it would have been totally inconsistent with your suspicions D1.



2. You needed a result to make your ability convincing, and a guilty result was by far the most likely to convince the town that your role was legit. An innocent or a roleblock result would have done little to convince your doubters that you were town. A guilty had a far better chance of doing that.



3. Whichever one of you/NE got lynched, the other would have a huge boost in surviving to endgame, for precisely the reason that you, and other players, have repeatedly stated: why would you bus?



4. Getting an innocent on your buddy would be incredibly dangerous, especially with both Javert and Quilford still alive at that stage. Unless you successfully talked town into a couple more mislynches with a limited suspect pool as it was, chances are that PoE would have led people into looking at you or your buddy, and once one is suspected, you're both suspected. I don't know that I've ever seen scum claim innocent on other scum; the risk of two guaranteed scum lynches if one of you gets caught far outweighs the reward.



Plus you still haven't explained your contradictory attitude towards Farside's claim. When I asked the question about Quilford's list, did you already know that Farside had claimed or not?

None of which was brought to attention the day before.

several points from NE's ISO stand out to me as the actions of a buddy, particularly that quote about Klazam

Again LL did an ISO and never stated anything of those actions about TS.



Then when LL think hey maybe I can mislynch, he states the following:

I'm going to:

Unvote while I think about some stuff.

Quilford: if you think Farside is the common denominator, vote for Farside.

I don't like the push on me. After seeing TS thinking he hammered this does indeed feel like a deliberate attempt to mislynch.

So at this point of the ISO I didn't like the weak reasoning from LL, then bringing up points already stated from others. I also did not like the unvote from TS to a slight push and easy vote later on me.

Still need to finish ISO and read of EA.

[Duplicity]

Locke, I completely understand that it was your D1 anaylsis I'm just failing to understand the lack of conclusions you attempted to draw at the end of the D1 anaylsis. Instead of outright saying; I believe the D1 anaylsis leads the last mafia to be X you've said that it increases the likelyhood of Y and X both being mafia. In other words you've attempted to leave yourself open to attack multiple avenues while pointing back to this anaylsis for reasoning.

In regards to your changed read on Farside, I'm finding it difficult to believe that you hadn't reached this conclusion much earlier. Surely you would have checked this thread at some time post-hammer when you see people ruling out the Farside/TS theory and suggesting that you're mafia; what made you hesitant to read through their ISO's at this point to see if it was indeed unlikely for them to be partners or not.

If you find Osos shift in opinion about TS to be scummy I would question why you never mentioned it earlier in the game, lack of reasoning behind his change of opinion would be a scum-tell regardess of TS's allignment. The answer is that Osos shift of opinion are very deeply explained and you're attempting to create some form of linkage between his actions and TS that isn't there.

Oso strongly believed TS was mafia due to the nature of his play and explained so in Post #282, this was changed via an explanation over the '1-shot theme' elaborated on in Post #300 by Juls and rementioned in Post #304 by Oso. Furthermore if you believe the shift of opinion from believeing Twistedspoon to elsewhere to be scummy I find it odd that you've completly ignored the fact that EA your predecessor moved from stating that TS should be vigged to attempting to push a lynch towards Oso while ignoring TS completly.

Cut: I don't have time to read through your post just yet Farside however I'll make time to later.

[farside22]

Basically Dup what you are saying about LL I pointed out and noticed when he regards TS. He changed his reads on you, saying he found you to be scum with TS do to Oso interaction, then changes to slowly but surely not seeing it. I feel like he did this weak push on you at the beginning, but when he saw no one agreed he switched to calling you town.
I also see a big push on TS day 4, which throws me off. I ask myself a dozen times would scum push for a lynch, but then he unvotes after all that pushing, it no sense as town. I know I feel strongly about someone I ask others their view, but still call the person scum. I found the case on TS really weak and I didn't see anything in the beginning using the ISO's he claimed to have read. Then he uses the same comments already made by others.

[Prosaurus]

Nothin' to say except that everyone seems to be ganging up on LL.