Newbie 1122 (Game Over|Scum Win)

[Packbat]

Hey, everyone! I will be your IC, or Inexperience-Challenged Player, for this game; it is my job to answer your questions about how to play Mafia on Mafiascum.net - both in the sense of "what are the site rules" and in the sense of "how do I win". I'll start with the former and move on to the latter in later posts - if nothing else, because some of our esteemed SE companions will probably have bones to pick about what I say there!

The first thing any new player should do, if they have not done so already, is read the site rules. This is mith's place, he is our benevolent overlord, and his word goes. I looked them over with the thought of summarizing the key ones in witty little phrases (e.g. "Don't be a dick"), but while a few will be familiar, you pretty much need to read through the whole list. Like I said, if you haven't done so already, read the site rules. It's short and it's important.

The second thing any new player - and the

first

thing any experienced player - should do is read the moderator's rules. A lot of them are common between games, but every moderator has their own way of doing things and following their rules makes that work better for everyone.

The third thing is to learn the general way these games go. A lot of it is described in the mod's rules, but like with any game, the rules are only a shadow of the

play

. Basically, the game will go something like this.

1. Confirmation stage. Some mods ask the players to send private messages - PMs - and others ask them to post in the game thread, but either way the moderator needs to know that everyone has received and read their role PMs and is ready to play. We've finished this stage (or nearly so).
   
2. Random voting or random question phase. Right now, we don't know who is in the Mafia and who is in the town, and the only way we can find out is to force everyone to start talking and voting, acting and reacting. The Mafia are
   not like
   the town, because the goals of the Mafia are not like the town, and this will be reflected in their behavior. But we have to force everyone to start participating so we can detect the players who are acting suspicious.
   
3. Serious voting and discussion. As the random stage extends, various players will decide that they see something real and move their votes and voices to reflect that. Not all players will do this simultaneously, but eventually you'll find that most of us are voting people we really think are guilty.
   
4. Lynching. As the discussion burns through the time alloted for the first "day", a loose consensus will eventually form on one or a few candidates. Sometimes it will dissipate, but as the deadline looms, we will likely see the town buckle down and pick one of these leading candidates to be the first lynch.
   
5. Twilight. After a majority of living players vote to hang one of their comrades, there is often a wait before the moderator gets back to report the result of the lynch and lock the thread. People will often continue to post ... but there's no undoing the lynch, it's already happened.
   
6. Night. The moderator tells us the role of the fellow we just killed, locks the thread, and we wait, with bated breath, for the dawn to come. This is when the Mafia chat in their secret quicktopic to pick someone to kill, and when any town power-roles - PRs, they are called; they include the doctor or the cop - decide what
   they
   are doing, and both Mafia and PRs send PMs to the moderator with instructions.
   
7. Dawn. The moderator tells us what happened during the night - both by sending PMs to investigator power roles and by posting in-thread with who died and what they were.
   
8. Loop back up to 3 - serious voting and discussion. From the basis of what they learned from the previous day and night, town no longer needs to
   force
   participation (usually) - they pick up where they dropped off and go for scum again.

Steps 3-8 will continue until one of two things happens: town wins by killing all the mafia; or mafia win by gaining parity or majority in the town.

[Packbat]

Right now we're in RVS, as Ellf said; one of the things I like to do in this stage is to start a

bandwagon

by voting for someone with one or more votes already on them. It's not often a good idea to put too many votes on one player early, just because it's important to get a feel for everyone in the player list before the end of the day, but votes tend not to have much effect if there isn't the threat of a lynch behind them.

VOTE: numberQ

For the record, another vocabulary term to learn if you haven't already is "L-

x

": when someone says that a certain player is at L-1, L-2, or whatever, they mean that this player is 1 vote or 2 votes or however many away from being lynched. So, to rephrase what I said before more specifically: it's a bad idea to put anyone at L-1 early in the first game day, because there's always the chance that someone doesn't read the game carefully and accidentally "hammers" (i.e. places the vote that causes the lynch) before we have a chance to get a feel for everyone in the game.

In this game, because 5 players is a majority, 3 votes is L-2 and 4 votes is L-1. It's a good idea to try to keep track of how many votes are on each player so you are ready when that point is approached. It's very common for players to see someone else place an L-1 vote and immediately remove their own vote, for example.

[Packbat]

Yeah... speaking of that L-X stuff... I made a really stupid decision last game. I wasn't paying attention and the bandwagon was at L-1, and I thought my vote was bringing him to L-1 and I was the hammer instead.

One suggestion I forgot to mention on that note:

if you place L-2 or L-1 votes - the third or fourth vote - announce that it is the L-2 or L-1 vote, respectively.

It's not any requirement in the rules, but it helps avoid mistakes.

(This goes for non-newbie games as well, I will note - I was in a 13-player Mini Theme game that just finished a week and a half ago where a player accidentally placed the lynching vote on Page 4, literally in under 48 hours from game start.)

[Packbat]

Now then, the other option to the RVS stage is the Random Question Stage. Though I like RVS for its entertainment value, a little bit of RQS is also good for kicking off a game and getting some basic information. So! Could you all try to answer a few for me, if you haven't already?

[ic]I highly recommend answering questions under all circumstances, even when the answer is "No comment".[/ic] I'm not actually convinced of the value of RQS, but some people have had a goodly bit of success with it.

1) This is the eleventh game of Mafia I have started playing on Mafiascum, and twelfth on the Internet; I have never played in RL.

2) I am in the US Eastern Time Zone - which is currently Eastern

Daylight

Time, not Eastern Standard Time, so...

3) Lean cake, despite some delicious attempts that have been made to sway me the other way.

4) The roles in newbie games are assigned completely at random; no-one

chooses

scum or town. That said, it shouldn't take long for it to become pretty obvious which one I am.

5) Honestly, I haven't been playing long enough to make a fair judgment.

VOTE: Packbat

First step to winning is killing off the IC.

This isn't actually true, obviously. The more useful criterion for deciding whether or not to lynch is the obvious one: is this person acting more like scum than like town? Which segues into my First Rule of Scumhunting:

Town players want to kill scum. Scum players want not to be killed. All tells are consequences of this difference in motivation.

More vocabulary terms:

scum

is any anti-town role - in this game, that being just the Mafia;

tells

are, like in poker, behavioral traits which reveal facts about the hidden knowledge of that player.

Now, that said: why this rule? Well, analyze the game, and you will find that all the scum need to do in order to win is

survive long enough

that their night-kills can wear down the town. While sometimes one scum will aid in the lynching of another (this is called

bussing

, from the phrase "throwing your partner under the bus"), as a rule scum will avoid actions likely to lead to their deaths. In contrast, there are

lots

of townies, and the survival of any one town player only affects the odds of town victory

if scum is killed instead

- and therefore townies don't need to care if they live or die, just if they can take down scum.

There are, of course, caveats and footnotes to this - for example, scum want to kill the town power-roles, and therefore find out who these power-roles are - but the single most valuable question you can ask is this: under what assumptions does this player's behavior make more sense: that they are town, or that they are scum? And the way to answer that question is to consider town's winning condition and contrast it with scum's.

[Packbat]

2) I am in the US Eastern Time Zone - which is currently Eastern

Daylight

Time, not Eastern Standard Time, so...

<sub>...I have no clue what you are talking about >.> *runs and changes it*

Actually I have a Votecount template setup and it says EST and I just plop the date and time in there. But I don't normally keep track of daylight savings time. In my mind, the sun goes up and the sun goes down and there is nothing we can do about it!

At least it tells me you read the votecount so thanks.</sub>

Err...

2) EST, US. Oh yeah, for all you other stalkers out there, I live in California

(Gentlefolk and ruffians: don't follow my example; read the votecounts. If nothing else, it'll tip you off if you miss someone's vote in your own records. And it won't be nothing else, because it will let you know how close to deadline we are.)

[Packbat]

Now, this senseless bandwagon against me is, quite frankly, senseless. Packbat's the IC, so he has more experience than us by definition, so I'm a little wary of him putting the second vote on my bandwagon. I don't want to get into a WIFOM thing (thank you for that term, wiki), but basically I'm thinking he's either pressuring me to see how I react to determine if I'm scum or not, or he knows I'm Townie since he's scum and is trying to get a bandwagon started so I get lynched. I think that's a healthy amount of suspicion to have for Mafia, and since this is RVS anyway, I'll put a vote on him.

VOTE: Packbat

That's L-2 on me.

Something else, though: I have a bad feeling about numberQ's post, for several reasons:

1. "senseless" is an awfully loaded term to use for a vote he

knows

is basically random - particularly when he goes on to explain why the vote makes sense from a town perspective...

2. ...and does the exact thing he just criticized as scummy when he jumps on my wagon to apply pressure to me.

3. He's playing his vote both ways: he (a) gives justification for it and (b) calls it random. If other people don't feel suspicious of me, he can invoke his RVS remark to distance himself from the vote, and if other people

do

feel suspicious, he can invoke his reasoning to make himself look like a good scumhunter.

It's not the kind of play I would expect from a townie - it seems more like the kind of play I would expect

scum

to use to

pretend

to be town.

(Incidentally, the "WIFOM" article is the page that introduced me to Mafiascum.net in the first place - it's a good read.)

[Packbat]

Hi, Robin!

And thanks for explaining IIoA, zMuffinMan! I should actually provide a link to Commonly used abbreviations for people who haven't read it; and looking at it reminds me of

another

piece of information that some of the newbies might not have:

Isos

.

An Iso (or ISO, or iso - it's short for "isolation") is a reread of only the posts by a single user. We have a word for it on Mafiascum because this forum has dropdowns at the bottom of each thread for "Display posts by user" - making it easy to read just what (say) Panacea has been posting all game. There have been one or two times I've IDed scum that way, and it's a good way to find old posts upthread that you need to reference in an argument.

[Packbat]

Oh, and I forgot to say:

Now then, the other option to the RVS stage is the Random Question Stage. Though I like RVS for its entertainment value, a little bit of RQS is also good for kicking off a game and getting some basic information. So! Could you all try to answer a few for me, if you haven't already?

[ic]I highly recommend answering questions under all circumstances, even when the answer is "No comment".[/ic]

Heh, sorry, I'd

intended

there to be three questions, so "a few," was initially all. But then I drafted 8, which seemed too much to ask, then settled for 5 and forgot to change it, lol.

Please, don't worry: I wasn't criticizing your question list! This is advice in general. I've seen players muddy the waters in their games by ignoring questions unnecessarily.

[Packbat]

Ooh, triple forgot:

That's L-2 on me.

You think

that's

bad, how about this!

UNVOTE: smallpeoples343
VOTE: Packbat.

Okay! Now someone, quick, hammer! Let's lynch the most experienced player after a page and change, end the Day early halfway through the RVS and RQS stages and when some players have only gotten in one post at all!! Go, go, go! MUAHAHAHA!!

Eh... No.

UNVOTE: Packbat.

(SORRY, MOD!! <3)

Panacea, did you mean to remove your vote from smallpeoples343?

---

PEdit: I have just been reminded of another useful tidbit for new players: the Preview Edit, or PEdit for short. If, while you are composing a reply, someone else posts, the Mafiascum forum will - instead of immediately posting your remarks - show you the new post or posts that came between when you loaded the posting page and when you hit "Preview" or "Submit" and give you another chance to edit your post.

Quite frequently all you will need to do in response to this is add a footnote like I am doing, but if (for example) new votes have been thrown down, a vote in your own posts which would have been L-2 or L-1 could turn into a potential hammer vote. Make sure you read the new posts carefully to avoid accidents along these lines.

[Packbat]

Panacea: Well, I wouldn't say I've been posting information

instead of

analysis - until recently, there was nothing to analyze; we were in R(V/Q)S. I wouldn't be surprised if it was just bad wording - after all, the point of his post was that he didn't see why you had/appeared to have a townread on me - but ValiliaRei makes an interesting case. It'll be easier to draw out the implications later in the day, when we have more time to judge zMuffinMan's posting style.

[Packbat]

EBWOP: when we

have had

more time.

[Packbat]

IC version of my post, for newbie players:

It is pretty usual for people to put votes down for weak reasons during the tail end of the random voting stage - in fact, I think people

should

do so, if only so that scum are forced to imitate them and possibly reveal themselves.

While I'm thinking of it, though, I realized that my First Rule of scumhunting is incomplete without a Second Rule of Scumhunting:

Mafia players know who their partners are; Town players do not.

This shows up in play two different ways:

1. The Mafia have a hard time faking the appropriate kind of uncertainty about the roles of other players; they already know who is town and who is scum.

This shows up in the play in tells like those I argue numberQ is displaying: mimicking of the thought-processes of other players and elaborate justifications for every move. It can also turn up in the opposite way: plays which have

no

apparent justification. Either of these kinds of behavior can be scummy.

2. Mafia players behave differently when they interact with their partners than with the town.

This fact is most easily exploited after one of the Mafia dies. At that point, you have a specific player known to be scum, and can read through them in isolation to find which other players they treat differently - for example, by deferring to one person's analysis over all others, or (this combines both 1 and 2) voting for one player without reasoning when that player flips scum. The latter is common in bussing cases.

However, even without a proven scum player, sometimes one or two members of a team will make a revealing error and reveal the pair of them as scumpartners. My most shameful loss was on an occasion in which I replaced into a game, IDed

both scum

before I even finished rereading the thread ... and lost, because of a clever gambit with claims and counterclaims.

Which is a good segue into a discussion of claims ... or would be, if I didn't have to run in a minute.

---

Non-IC version for non-newbies:

numberQ really isn't reassuring me with his unvote - it looks like the same sort of faux-townie behavior, and makes me think his

real

reason for unvoting is "oh crap, they're all looking at me - abort mission, abort mission!" I'm leaving my vote where it is.

[Packbat]

Why so many links Packbat?

The links to the Wiki are there for anyone who wants further reading on the material I'm talking about. There really is a treasure trove of material there - pages like A Beginner's Guide to Being Awesome At Mafia, A View on Cops, and Numbers, Part 1 are good reads for anyone, for example - and it would be ridiculous not to direct people there.

In unrelated news: am I the only one having some difficulty parsing zMuffinMan's latest post?

[Packbat]

Higher than that, unless you self-vote in RVS.

[Packbat]

Oddly enough, I just saw a game finish where the last two lynches both involved self-votes. And both were mislynches and town lost. There

are

situations where self-voting makes sense, but they are rare and (I believe) they never arise in newbies.

[Packbat]

"What are the benefits do not 'immediately' lynching the IC?" I

think

you might mean, "What are the benefits of not 'immediately' lynching the IC?", but I would rather be sure.

[Packbat]

Well, I focused on that point specifically because that was the grammatical error I was hung up on - and, as ValiliaRei has said, the most obvious way to make sense of it ... makes no sense.

[Packbat]

@Packbat, please scratch my request for post-to-link; just figured it out.

Glad to be of service!

(I'll be less wall-of-text from now on - I've mostly been really enthusiastic about playing my first game as IC.)

[Packbat]

So... Robin. Seeing anything worth your commentary?

(Apropos of nothing: my RL name is Robin. This game is going to be mondo confusing to me.)

[Packbat]

Anyway, I wanted to point something out that I feel is going to be inherent in most, if not all Newbie Games. One (or more) of the more experienced players is likely going to be a mafia member. It makes no sense to have the blind lead the blind without any sort of direction, unless the mod wants to participate in the Mafia Quick Topic (which I think is disallowed). For now, I have put my field of suspicion on the three experienced players, Packbat, zMuffinMan, and Pancea.

I understand the reasoning, but Ellf and zMuffinMan are correct: that's not how the setups work. Roles are assigned

purely

at random. If it so happens that both scum are newbies ... well, they had better learn quickly.

As for why they would allow it: except in rare cases, that's how roles will be assigned in

all

Mafiascum games.

Back on the subject of scumhunting: I can see why zMuffinMan is drawing suspicion as well. In this latest post, for example, he seems to be rapidly explaining how everything he said that implied we should lynch me actually

doesn't

imply we should lynch me.

And misusing the term "IIoA" while he does it. IIoA is information

instead of

analysis, not just any information. If, under circumstances when a player should be offering analysis, they are avoiding doing so by posting loads of

information

instead,

then

IIoA applies. It's a scum tell because it's a form of active lurking - of being present (because you're posting) without saying anything that could draw suspicion (like, "let's lynch Packbat").

Oh, and also?

I already explained that I only voted for Packbat because it was mostly random, and I unvoted because I didn't look through the topic thoroughly enough to know that he was close to being hammered. A lynch this early, especially on an IC, especially on an IC that I can't read as either scum or town yet, seems like a bad idea to me.

Not what I was asking at all.

Why did you do nothing after unvoting?

Do you have anything to add to the game, or are you just going to sit around waiting for someone to claim scum or something?

I would have no trouble believing that this was one scum talking to his partner. That final question could be perfectly innocent, but it also looks a bit like one scum coaching his partner in how to play.

[Packbat]

To answer you monosyllables in order...

(1) The backing-away is illustrated by the following:

First step to winning is killing off the IC.

I don't see how it's any different to lynching any other player under the same circumstances. ICs can draw scum PMs, you know.

It sounds like you have a town read on Packbat, Panacea. Which seems rather odd, because his posts have mostly been IIoA so far.

Which I guess is a good point to bring up now. IIoA is generally a bad thing. Not so much of a problem in newbie games, because it's a learning experience, but you want to focus more on actually scum hunting than talking about things unrelated to helping you find scum.

This is a newbie game, so it's a learning experience for newer players. I have no problem with IIoA being used here as long as there's actual scum hunting going on.

(2) Define "IIoA" in such a way that my posts qualify, please?

(3) It is

very stupid

for scum to sit around doing nothing, because it makes it obvious they don't care about finding scum to lynch; and, indeed, the only possible response to "Do you have anything to add to the game, or are you just going to sit around waiting for someone to claim scum or something?" is to

stop sitting around

. It's not a question which can be answered - it's either (A) instructions which must be followed or (B) an accusation of guilt. In case A - that's coaching. And I haven't seen you coaching anyone else (cf. my Second Rule of Scumhunting).

[Packbat]

Not only that, but you saw through me being 100% serious in the reasons for my RVS vote. I thought I could pass it off as a joke, but not with detective Packbat on the scene.

No, see, it

looked

like a joke ... until you spent three or four posts defending it.

(2) Define "IIoA" in such a way that my posts qualify, please?

Define IIoA in such a way that your early posts don't qualify.

Posting

only

information in circumstances when analysis is required. No analysis was required when I was posting my first few posts, because there was nothing to analyze. When there

was

material to analyze, I started analyzing. The key words in IIoA are

INSTEAD OF

.

Compare with ValiliaRei's posting. Her first analysis appears in #39. My first analysis appears in #27. I'm not

avoiding

analysis by posting information - I'm posting analysis when I see material that can be analyzed, just like everyone else. Therefore,

not instead of

. Q. E. D.

Are you completely ignoring the fact that I addressed two different people when I was talking about it? Or are you only seeing what's convenient for you?

Let me describe where this appears in the post.

First, you have two little dashes, representing a horizontal rule. (By the way, there

is

a horizontal-rule tag - you post bracket-hr-closebracket, a number representing percentage, and then bracket-/hr-closebracket.)

Then, you quote numberQ.

Then, you post three lines, the third of which is the one I referenced.

Then, you post two more little dashes.

Who on earth

else

could you have possibly have been addressing that question to?!

[Packbat]

I don't think Q's use of the term bandwagon or senseless was to loaded by any means, I find it interesting that you're trying to use it as a way to make Q come across as scummy.

"Interesting"?

(3) It is

very stupid

for scum to sit around doing nothing, because it makes it obvious they don't care about finding scum to lynch; and, indeed, the only possible response to "Do you have anything to add to the game, or are you just going to sit around waiting for someone to claim scum or something?" is to

stop sitting around

. It's not a question which can be answered - it's either (A) instructions which must be followed or (B) an accusation of guilt. In case A - that's coaching. And I haven't seen you coaching anyone else (cf. my Second Rule of Scumhunting).

So, scrums would never do that because...it's too scummy? Feels like a bit of WIFOM, to me.

Where did I say scum "would never do that"? What is the "that" which I say scum would never do? I'm having a hard time parsing your objection.

[Packbat]

Ouch - good luck with the thesis, Ellf.

[Packbat]

You're being awfully defensive over something that I don't even care about. The original point was that I didn't see how someone could have any sort of town read on you based on your play at that point in the game, and your point is what? That there was nothing to analyse, so it's OK for you to post lots of IC-information? How was this relevant to anything I was saying?

I don't have any argument with you about whether people should have had townreads on me at that point in the game - you were right, they shouldn't have. My only argument is about the definition of the term "IIoA", and at this point it's obvious that we're not going to agree.

Who on earth else could you have possibly have been addressing that question to?!

derp

ISO me, or just read what numberQ actually quoted. I was addressing numberQ and small; both unvoted you, and both added nothing else after unvoting you. It's in my ISO#3.

numberQ is the only one of those two that actually responded to me, so yeah, I responded back to him alone. You know, that's how the game goes. You say something, someone responds, you respond, etc etc. It's a miraculous cycle called 'communication' - maybe you've heard of it?

So ... you saw that two people were doing a thing they shouldn't have been doing, but, because only one of the two was speaking to you, you responded to that one alone ... but your response to only one of them was

actually

addressed to them both? Even though it was a response to only one of them?

*headdesk* *headdesk* *headdesk*

In the future, if you want to address more than one person,

indicate that you are doing so.

It's not difficult. In this case, all you needed to do was put "This goes for smallpeoples343 as well" at the end of the line.

[Packbat]

That's me screwing up, actually. I forgot about that post when I was reading the later one.

And, come to think of it, smallpeoples343 hasn't even posted since that post. He needs to get back in here - he's been missing for over a day.

[Packbat]

So, yeah.

Unvote

VOTE: numberQ

That's L-2, for the record.

[Packbat]

And happy birthday, Packbat!!

Thank you - I celebrated by running off to play D&D at a friend's house offline. I may aim for a repeat performance today.

In the meantime, however, I think Panacea may have the right of it - the stuff I was criticizing in zMuffinMan seems to have had mundane towny explanations (e.g. perfectly laudable RVS-silliness). I hesitate to declare him town, but the grounds for a scumread seem to be shaky at best. And both Robin the Boy Wonder and numberQ need to start contributing in a real way.

[Packbat]

Oversoul: That matches my records as well - there's been no other voting/unvoting since #102.

[Packbat]

Oversoul: That matches my records as well - there's been no other voting/unvoting since #102.

Actually, Oversoul unvoted in Post 105. Just saying.

Exactly - no

other

voting or unvoting - Oversoul mentioned that zMuffinMan had only one vote on him, and everything else in the votecount is unchanged.

That said: we have some real problems with lack of activity. Ellf and Robin the Boy Wonder are replacing out, but that doesn't mean the rest of us should be sitting on our hands. Just to give a few people fuel for conversation to maybe get the game rolling again:

numberQ:

What's your take on the interaction between zMuffinMan and myself?

zMuffinMan:

What is your take on the two players who are replacing out - Ellf and Robin the Boy Wonder?

Panacea:

Any thoughts on Robocopter87?

smallpeoples343:

Any thoughts on numberQ?

[Packbat]

A question to the three experienced folks - How many times has it happened where someone was just a very nervous person, but still not scum? That's an okay thing to ask, right?

You're right, it's a good question - and I don't know. The only times I can remember seeing a town player this unengaged in the game was when they were about to flake out and replace, and numberQ hasn't shown any sign of that. (He's still clearly caught up with the thread, for example.) I

have

seen town players as

defensive

as numberQ has been, but they were much more active than numberQ.

[Packbat]

Back in the saddle again! (H'Okay, no Rush fans, how about Aerosmith? ) Sorry about the length, but I haven't had time to post non-mobilly.

Panacea:

Any thoughts on Robocopter87?

Yes; that he is my Mod, and that

<1> [His] rule is Law, [he] settle

debates. If

reject [his] rules then it shall result in a Modkill.

That's kind of an odd question, though... What prompted it?

Desperation to get the game moving, the "Activity" button, and sleep deprivation.

Vote: ValiliaRei

Any particular reason?

[Packbat]

And a question for Packbat: Do you think Val's suspicions of zMuffin are sound?

I did so at the time they were made, but having reviewed the thread, I think they do not hold up - the principal accusation is that he attempted to foster a quicklynch on myself, and it seems reasonably evident that this was not his intention. His initial action was an RVS with an appropriately ridiculous 'explanation', and his subsequent remarks defended his RVS on the eminently rational grounds that any player may be scum, including the IC. If he is scummy, it is not for voting me.

Also, nQ is correct that he did not vote himself - that duplication of his name should be removed from the votecount.

[Packbat]

Minor quibble: L-1 is close to lynch in a

newbie

game, merely because of the higher probability of an accidental hammer.

[Packbat]

I don't think I said otherwise. I just said I think L-1 wagons are good.

Wow, I just never understand anything you say, do I?

And I agree - the purpose of a vote is to make it possible to lynch. In fact,

except

in newbie games, I like L-1 wagons as early as page 2 or 3 - it produces a situation where there is genuine pressure on a player

and

a significant event that everyone in the game is forced to react to.

[Packbat]

Greetings, Maruchan! I believe I've eaten some of your ramen.

[Packbat]

zMuffinMan is correct, Maruchan - we might not have a cop, and even if we do there's only a 1/3 chance we have a doctor to protect him. The general strategy of Follow the Cop applies in a

few

situations, but we can usually do better by following our eyes.

Preview Edit: Apparently the post-thing is working for me...

Also, Oman and Packbat where are you guys?

Wondering where smallpeoples343 and Oman were, actually.

EBWOP: i fucked up my post tags /facedesk

You have to have double-quotes around the usernames in the quote= tags.

In case anyone is wondering why I said 58% chance of cop rather than 50, there is a 25% chance 1 player gets cop (four roles to chose from) leaving one person with THREE roles in the "role bin", for a 33% chance of each. So, unless there can be two cops or two docs or two jailers, there is a 58% chance of any given role in that setup being in play. if there CAN be two, then there is a 50% chance there will be at least 1 of any given role.

There are six possible combinations of town roles:

1. One cop, one doc.
   
2. One cop, one jailer.
   
3. One cop, one VT.
   
4. One doc, one jailer.
   
5. One doc, one VT.
   
6. One jailer, one VT.

Three of the six contain a cop; hence, 50%.

EBWOP again: god I can;t believed I missed this! To answer MuffinMan asking why I was keeping my vote where I was, rather than just following in the footsteps, I rather agreed with the arguments for scum on numberQ back on pages 2-3. I don't think I saw any counter-arguments against his scum other than the "Scum or PR", which by saying this, means scum might target him tonight anyways, so he dies anyways, in which case, I would rather lynch a 50/50 scum/PR so that I get the 50% chance of the scum dying rather than the 0% chance of scum 100% chance of PR dying.

Actually, there is a third way: when someone is ready to lynch numberQ, we ask him to roleclaim rather than immediately lynch. If he claims a role that someone else in the game has, that person can announce their role and we can lynch him for lying; otherwise, we can decide whether or not we believe him based on his play thus far.

[Packbat]

Incidentally, pop quiz: what tell did I demonstrate in my last post?

Regarding numberQ, I still think he's scummy for roughly the same reasons, and I've not seen anything from another slot that compares. That said, I'm beginning to wonder about the people reiterating suspicions of zMuffinMan - it would not surprise me that scum would want to try to keep that option open.

[Packbat]

Incidentally, pop quiz: what tell did I demonstrate in my last post?

Regarding numberQ, I still think he's scummy for roughly the same reasons, and I've not seen anything from another slot that compares. That said, I'm beginning to wonder about the people reiterating suspicions of zMuffinMan - it would not surprise me that scum would want to try to keep that option open.

A town tell? O_o

Hold on in a marathon game. will reply to this in full later, although I feel like you are hinting at Maruchan and I.

I am - although it was really Maruchan's post which attracted my attention in the first place. His attitude toward zMuffinMan seemed inconsistent on casual reading.

[Packbat]

EBWOP: Not a town-tell - that post was

actually

IIoA.

[Packbat]

I am - although it was really Maruchan's post which attracted my attention in the first place. His attitude toward zMuffinMan seemed inconsistent on casual reading.

Anything in particular to point out, so I can see what I said that made you notice me? Just a general "help me get better" thing, or so I can explaign my reasoning.

Hm. Well, rereading the paragraph in question:

At first, reading through, I thought that zMuffinMan seemed rather scummy early on, then when he flipped the vote to the other player he was "arguing" with, I thought it seemed rather erratic. But I think that is just his Meta? as you guys call it. Meta here means your playstyle or something similar right? I think MuffinMan just has a confrontational, up "in-your-face" playstyle. Yes, he is still on my "to watch carefully" list, but I am less inclined to think without a doubt he is the scum. So if the goal of day 1 is to perform a lynch, rather than a no lynch, numberQ seems my likely suspect, after reading some of the debates for why people think he is scum.

...I would say that, if you are town, you might lay off on the stream-of-consciousness stuff in your posting. It is worth being aware in your own head of what is shaping your opinions, if only to be able to figure out how you ended up fooling yourself post-mortem, but it is much more profitable during the game to present your best conclusions at the time of writing, integrating everything you've seen. For one thing, it reduces the extraneous data.

That said - oh, and

this is the important part of the post

- I don't find you entirely convincing. On one level, your post is a story of being initially suspicious and then having those suspicions relieved (hence my stream-of-consciousness comment), but from a functional perspective it very nicely sets you up to nail zMuffinMan to the wall given the chance, and it reinforces the association between zMuffinMan and scumminess in people's minds by hiding the relief of your suspicions in the middle of the paragraph, where they are less prominent.

Also, you just did the "oh, people don't like it, so I'm unvoting" thing. I didn't like it when numberQ did it, and I don't like it from you.

[Packbat]

That said - oh, and this is the important part of the post - I don't find you entirely convincing. On one level, your post is a story of being initially suspicious and then having those suspicions relieved (hence my stream-of-consciousness comment), but from a functional perspective it very nicely sets you up to nail zMuffinMan to the wall given the chance, and it reinforces the association between zMuffinMan and scumminess in people's minds by

hiding the relief of your suspicions in the middle of the paragraph, where they are less prominent.

Also, you just did the "oh, people don't like it, so I'm unvoting" thing. I didn't like it when numberQ did it, and I don't like it from you.

The bolded sounds a little nitpicky to me. Is that common? Because if not I have trouble believing the plausibility in that. Then again, I can't see what you mean by zMuffin being set up to be nailed to the wall, so it could just be me.

And I would address the second paragraph in that quote, but I don't want to sound like a broken record. -_-

You're right - the bolded would be an awfully subtle play, more so than I would expect from a newbie player.

I would address your second paragraph, but you didn't address mine, so it would be unfair.

[Packbat]

I then went on to explain that it was pointed out to me that lynching the person I thought had to be either scum or PR was a bad idea, due to the no kill to "feint a doc" option. That strategy by a mafia player is really what made me realize that killing him was bad, he MIGHT not die tonight, due to A.) that strategy being used, B.) doc actually being in the setup and being on him.

So I realized since it wasn't guaranteed if he was town he would die tonight (from my take on the situation), it no longer made sense to lynch him of the chance he wasn't town.

That is why I actually unvoted. He still seems scummy to me, but I am no longer lynching him in the case of scum/PR either way he is. only if he is the first.

Does that make sense?

Not much. Anyone can be a PR.

Anyone

. Likewise, anyone can be scum. The former is no reason to ignore the latter. Vote your top scum suspects.

[Packbat]

Packbat is seeming almost... too Town (there is such a thing, lol. ) Just minor twinges, I guess. Something about his "Pop quiz!" pings my scumdar. On my phone, so I can't go back without losing this Post, but Packbat, is this your first IC game?

This is so completely my first IC game that it hurts.

I agree with Packbat on Maru's unvote. It seems too concerned with appearances. I also don't like the "Remember to apply your Elff tells to me," comment. (Mainly because I'm having flashbacks to when I used almost that exact line after replacing into my last scum game. We won. ) I can't look, but had anyone mentioned anything about having tells on Elff when that comment was made?
UNVOTE: Oman.

Giant Flaming Hand of Suspicion: Maruchan

.

I never said anything about him, but I was asking zMuffinMan to give his opinion on him for a reason - can't place it right now. zMM was probably right when he said that he didn't have enough data.

[Packbat]

UNVOTE: numberQ
VOTE: Maruchan

With every post he makes, his intentions look less and less towny.

[Packbat]

Packbat - Not posting as often anymore. Some IIoA continues even after the game started rolling. Sudden 180 on his thoughts on zMuffinMan. Sudden, little explained vote on Maruchan.

Okay, I'm awake now - let me try to explain my reasoning.

First, examine the reasons I had for going after zMuffinMan. They were twofold: first, his vote on me, and second, his interactions with numberQ. zMuffinMan's vote on me was an RVS vote. I could imagine making an entirely similar vote, with similar justification, and responding similarly ... as town. This part of my case was nothing but misreading the snark of another player. And numberQ? numberQ's been looking relatively towny lately. The way he's been gaining confidence doesn't look like scum trying to disguise their natural caution; it looks like newbie-town getting their feet under them.

In other words, I've no reason left to

suspect

zMuffinMan from my original case. And outside my original case he looks like a pro-town player.

As for my vote on Maruchan: right off the bat I disliked his zMuffinMan convo in #175 - it didn't read as genuine, it was too much imitation of what everyone else was saying. Follow that up with the "look at Elf!" bit in #207, and the "are you really a PR or just faking?" bit that wraps up at #230.

This third one is new to the thread, so I'll elaborate: if there is some fact which might protect a PR - such as, "if the mafia are killing someone anyways, its would be smart to softclaim a role as a blue, to attract suspicion from the mafia"; facts such as these create WIFOM in the minds of scum - then it's a good idea to

let scum wonder

, rather than eliminate the confusion as Maruchan apparently did.

Speaking of which: Maruchan seems way more on top of things than his "oh, I've only played chat, I don't know how to play forum" stance suggests. I don't think anyone even suggested the

idea

of softclaiming in this thread before Maruchan brought it up, for example.

[Packbat]

Also, As I stated earlier, I still agree with the original stance of "One of the experienced players is likely to be scum"

So I think Panacea, PackBat, or MuffinMan is part of the scum team.

That's not how the setup works. In

every

newbie game (and most non-newbies) the moderator assigns roles completely randomly - they make a list of players, a list of roles, randomize one list and assign it to the other. The scum team could end up being two complete novices who proceed to make a hash of the entire thing -

and often is.

In fact, by the numbers, with one IC and two SE's, exactly

half the time

both scum will be newbies.

This is a subject we discussed on page three of

this game

- I can see no reason for you to be this obtuse about it.

[Packbat]

read one of my earlier posts. I explained why I think his assumption is correct, and it has nothing to do with their experience levels. it has to do with the fact there are 3 experienced players out of 9, and 2 mafia roles. so there is a 1:3 ratio of experienced members to non-experienced, meaning 1 in every 3 players is an SE or IC. therefor there is like somewhere between a 33 and 49 percent chance at least ONE of them is mafia.

add that to playing from my PoV, and it means 3/8 of the other players is experiences, and 2/8 are mafia. so if you play from each players' PoV, rather than from the overall town PoV, there is an even greater chance that an experienced player is mafia. Just due to odds, nothing to do with their experience.

There are three players in the game whose username starts with a letter after R in the alphabet. There are three players who typed locations within the USA into their Location fields in their profiles. There are three players who put their win-loss statistics in their forum signatures. There are three players who don't have 100x100 pixel avatars. There are three players with the title "Townsperson" underneath their username. Every one of these groups has a 58.33% chance of containing scum. Assuming you're town, every one of these groups that you aren't in has a

64.28%

chance of containing scum.

And these facts are completely useless for scumhunting. Why? Because, in this game, you lynch

one

player per day. Not "the scum player in this group of three players, if there is a scum player in this group of three players",

one

player. And as far as identifying players for the lynch goes, these groups are exactly as informative as "players whose slots were either SE or IC at the beginning of the game" - which is to say, zilch. Usernames, user profiles, avatars, and join dates are

completely uncorrelated

with scumminess.

And you didn't say, "Guys, we shouldn't take the experienced players as automatically pro-town - there's a good chance there's scum in there", you said:

Also, As I stated earlier, I still agree with the original stance of "One of the experienced players is likely to be scum"

So I think Panacea, PackBat, or MuffinMan is part of the scum team.

[emphasis added]

In other words, you said, "Look at

these three players

when you are choosing a lynch" - even though you offered exactly

zero

reason for singling out those three players.

[Packbat]

And, I might add, even though the player you're currently voting

isn't on that list

.

[Packbat]

yes, there are two mafia. I haven't seen scum from you guys yet. I saw tunneling from Val.

Then why did you say it? If there are other players who look scummy and we don't, then the probability is actually

less

than 64.28% that one of us is scum by process of elimination! Such a claim becomes worse than useless under those circumstances.

[Packbat]

"Tells" are overrated. You don't find scum by looking for "tells", there are far better ways to find scum, and "tells" are unreliable.

For example, right now, I'm working off PoE and town reads. To that end, I think at least one of you and Oversoul is scum.

town reads/town tells are the same thing pretty much...?

They're ... related.

In my opinion, the biggest problem with tells is summarized by something which my IC told me in my first game, about "wikitells". Basically, there are a lot of things on the Wiki - IIoA, Wishy Washy, Appeal to Emotion, etc. and so forth - which

might

be indicative of alignment ... but which are often completely meaningless even when correctly identified. As a result, they get used by scum to create mislynches (the "wikitell" page is about this) and they get used by newbies to confuse themselves, but they show up rarely if at all in non-newbie games.

In my first game or two, I put a fair bit of stock in them. Nowadays, essentially zip. There

are

tells, but the place I go to find them is first principles: scum know their partners and don't care for lynching correctly, while town don't and do.

Preview Edit: I see zMuffinMan is thinking along similar lines.

[Packbat]

Hey, smalls - got reads?

[Packbat]

Completely off topic aside, but AHHHHH!!!! 2.5 days!!!!!!!!!!

Not off topic - 2.5 days means we need to decide on a lynch

today

, so we have time to ask for a claim from the target. Anyone whose vote is not placed on their top scum suspect should be moving it now.

[Packbat]

Ah, right - July 19 deadline. That gives us more slack, although identifying real lynch candidates is still good. (Oman, where are you?)

Panacea, I Copy pasted my Browser History, Packbat was just smart and overly-scrutinized my history log.

Uh, that was ValiliaRei reading your browser history, not me. You can tell we're different because my avatar has a hat in it.

RQS:

What is everyone's opinions on Harry Potter? Books/Movies/Games/Any combination of the three

Some of the fanfic is good; never got into the books. [ic]I don't find that kind of question useful in an RQS way, anyway - it's usually better to go for something game-related, I think. Besides, we don't need RQS on page 13.[/ic]

Oh, that may have been scum hunting, I guess, but that was what... two weeks ago? What have you done since then?

I'm not asking you to vote every person you find scummy, but you've been doing nothing with your vote for a loooooooooong time and you're not even showing any intention of doing anything with your vote this close to the deadline.

I'm ISOing Oversoul, and ... yeah, I think zMuffinMan has a bit of a point. As Samuel Johnson is purported to have said about a certain manuscript, Oversoul's posting is both good and original, but that which is good is not original, and that which is original is not good. I remember noticing that #166 was a fairly evident mischaracterization at the time, for example.

I want to keep a sharp eye on Maruchan - everything I said before about his play still goes - but I don't think it's a good idea to let Oversoul fly under the radar, either.

[Packbat]

zMuffinMan was right - L-2 (which you are at, if I'm counting correctly) is not a huge deal. L-1 is significant, and L-1 with a player threatening to hammer is

very

significant, but L-2 not so much.

[Packbat]

PEdit: MuffinMan was right about what? and L2 COULD be bad, if both maf hadn't voted yet and played their votes well.

Besides, L-2 isn't really dangerous. Maybe L-1, but not L-2.

As for your second concern, it

can

happen - but if two people vote in close succession to lynch a townsperson, they're going to be scrutinized out the

wazoo

. It's just too obvious a play.

[Packbat]

EBWOP: I EVEN HIT THE HR TAGS AND THEY DIDN'T WORK!! >:(

EBWOP: You have to put a percentage width between the tags. Yeah, didn't make sense to me, either.

[Packbat]

Hey, Vader2401! Any thoughts?

[Packbat]

EBWOP:
I looked back and me voting would only put hMaruchan at L-2. Is this a mistake on your part or a ploy to save your fellow scum? Just throwing out possibilities

It would only put Maruchan at L-2 because your slot's vote was already on Maruchan from #281. numberQ put down the L-2 at #302.

..."Just throwing out possibilities"? Really? Why don't I believe you?

[Packbat]

@Vader2401: That would be a valid scum motive for her post, but there's a townie motive as well - many scum have been caught when they bussed their partners, often because the reasons given by the bussing player just aren't sufficient to justify their vote.

[Packbat]

@Packbat I only voted because I read earlier in the thread somewhere that someone said that you should get your vote out now on your most suspicious player. That might have been when people thought the deadline was in 2.5 days though.

That was me, and that was indeed the reason - and your vote was already out, as I mentioned. I gather also from your posting that you had checked the count to make sure you weren't accidentally hammering, which is also good - the vote to lynch should be on purpose.

Given that you have confused Maruchan and zMuffinMan, however, if you are town I think I would recommend rereading the game more carefully before placing your vote.

[Packbat]

@Packbat Thanks for the advice! BTW, at the beginning the stuff you posted really helped me try to figure this game out. Thank you so much!

Just doin' my job.

Speaking of which, it's about time I took some of my own advice and took a careful look over past events myself. Reading the game piecemeal as each new post comes in is not conducive to acquiring a clear understanding of what has transpired.

[Packbat]

Maruchan's code is correct. Try not to go overboard on using images, though - a degree of levity can make the game more enjoyable, but I haven't found it helpful to scumhunting.

(Sorry about the silence - I decided to jump back to Page 9 and catch up to the present, and it's turning out to be pretty interesting!)

[Packbat]

Oh, forgot to mention: if you want to play with forum tags, the Help! forum always has a stickied test post thread. Here's the latest one.

[Packbat]

Rereading the game, I'm feeling like changing my mind yet again - Maruchan's play hasn't been good, but too much of it makes too much sense from town to ignore. That's my third scum suspect I've abandoned.

Ah, macht nichts. At least I have a new one to serve in their place.

UNVOTE: Maruchan
VOTE: Vader2401 (L-2)

This time I'm forced to admit it - this vote's just a gut reaction to posts like #281 and #361. I could probably vote Oversoul with roughly equal logic; the only factor tilting me away from him is the way he's reacted to oddities like Maruchan's QT question, which doesn't feel like scum to me. Va(liliaRei/der2401) doesn't have that virtue.

[Packbat]

@Packbat If you think I should go back and talk about things that already happened, I will. I thought people would get a little peeved if I did that because someone brought something back up earlier and NumberQ got a little testy. I assumed that once it was talked about, it was done, or maybe I got a wrong impression.

I don't understand the motive behind this question (did I say something about your being supposed to do that?), but the primary rule is

if it helps catch scum, do it

. If you have discovered a case against a player based on their early play, don't let the fact that it happened on Page Single-Digits stop you.

Totally off topic, danke schoen to Packbat for putting L-2 next to his vote. Helps me a lot there. Maybe we should all do it?

I like to do it - it makes other players pay attention to the vote count and it gives them (and the mod) a chance to warn me if I'm counting wrong. Plus it prevents 'accidental' hammers (and accidental hammers, for that matter).

[Packbat]

Thats like I think I mentioned earlier, that this entire day is pretty much random, all over the place FoSes, due to no confirmed roles or reports or anything.

"Pretty much random" is overstating the case - yes, we'll have more info tomorrow, but my understanding is that scum are lynched D1 at a rate better than chance, nonetheless. (I haven't done any surveys myself, mind.)

[Packbat]

The question is less "are scum lynched more often than town, D1?" than "are scum lynched

more often than chance

, D1?"

PEdit: Hold off for a day, Oversoul - if Robocopter87 can find a replacement for Vader2401, we should ask him to claim.

[Packbat]

The question is less "are scum lynched more often than town, D1?" than "are scum lynched

more often than chance

, D1?"

PEdit: Hold off for a day, Oversoul - if Robocopter87 can find a replacement for Vader2401, we should ask him to claim.

Fine although I feel like I should do it tonight.

We have at least 48 hours - we can wait 24. And speaking of "at least"...

Mod: is the deadline midnight

before

July 19th or midnight

after

July 19th - that is, (expired on 2011-07-19 00:00:00) or (expired on 2011-07-20 00:00:00)?

[Packbat]

Wait, even if we do get a replacement who falsely claims a PR, wouldn't it be wiser for the real PR to stay hidden? It's only N1, after all.

In a larger game, possibly, but it's extremely unlikely that this game would last past Day 4. No role in this game is worth more than a guaranteed scum lynch, which (barring lying) counterclaiming gives us.

If you're questioning the wisdom of asking for a claim - well, that's a judgment call. I think if we have a replacement within 23 hours we'll have enough time to vote another wagon if they give us a claim we can believe

[Packbat]

A PR should

always

counterclaim in a newbie game - the only question is whether you ask the suspect to claim in the first place.

[Packbat]

imo, a PR shouldn't counter-claim if there's a way to get the claimer lynched without doing so. But that's not all too easy to do, considering a lot of people have a fear of lynching claimed PRs with no CC. Personally, I could care less if someone claims PR, unless it's verifiable, if I think they're scum, I'll try to get them lynched.

Right - it might be more accurate to say, "A PR should never let a fakeclaim live". Of course, this close to deadline we have less flexibility.

[Packbat]

I said "wait 24 hours" 23.9 hours ago - if you want to hammer, go ahead.

[Packbat]

If you measure from the post where I said "one day", it's seven minutes ago...

[Packbat]

According to my count, indeed!

[Packbat]

Okay, first question we have to ask after seeing the night-kill: why zMuffinMan?

In my estimation, there are only three factors the Mafia will use for picking who to kill each night: either they will pick someone who is a confirmed town player (e.g. a claimed PR), they will pick someone who is pushing for their own lynch, or they will pick a WIFOM candidate - someone whose death will deceive the town.

WIFOM NKs are uncommon on Night 1, in my experience.

zMuffinMan was not confirmed town - he was not even universally

considered

town.

Therefore:

So, yeah. Love when games stall.

Still thinking Oversoul>vader>small as my suspects.

That's mostly due to town reads of varying strength on every other player.

VOTE: Oversoul

[Packbat]

...wow, Oversoul/Maruchan scumteam, anyone?

Maruchan: I can't rule out a WIFOM kill, obviously, but I think it's kinda uncommon early in the game because there are so many players and so many things to look at. Newbie scum in particular are inclined to aim at people going after themselves - I know I was.

[Packbat]

Here's the sequence of events I'm seeing.

1. A nightkill on an odd target.

2. A very strange post arguing against drawing any conclusions from the nightkill.

3. Two players expressing suspicion of each other,

not voting

each other ... and then chatting merrily and amiably without any sign of their mutual suspicion.

I need to go back and check against D1, but the N1/D2 behavior makes a whole lot of sense if you hypothesize that scumteam.

PreviewEdit: Panacea has pointed out one thing I found particularly strange in the very strange post - the focus on the poster's own appearance.

[Packbat]

^^^

and

...wow, Oversoul/Maruchan scumteam, anyone?

Not right now. NumberQ/Maruchan, maybe. But we really shouldn't look for scumteams until we have a confirmed scummie, right? At this point I wouldn't be too objected to a NumberQ lynch closer to deadline, but not until after a claim. This living PR business needs to be resolved.

@Packbat: We know scum can be deceitful. Do you think deceit can be pro-Town?

The sort-of-default position on town deceit is Lynch All Liars ... but yes, it can. The classic example of pro-town deceit is softclaiming a role you don't have, but there are more complicated moves such as Kokusho's Gambit which can also benefit town if the circumstances are right. The first question to answer when contemplating a pro-town gambits is, "could scum get away with it?", I think.

---

Maruchan's play makes me think of a corollary of my NK trichotomy: even better than killing the party who suspects you or making a WIFOM kill is killing the party who suspects you

and

convincing town it is a WIFOM kill. Voting to "quell[ my] fears" and immediately unvoting? Declaring "I'm too smart to do that" (which is

the textbook definition of

WIFOM)? No sense, it makes.

Also, trading a PR for a scum becomes a

better

deal as you approach endgame, not worse. PRs are more valuable the more time they have to do their work.

Also,

one vote

does not force the town to lynch hastily.

[Packbat]

Maruchan is correct (although the probabilities aren't): the set of possible PRs pre-game was:

1. Cop/Doctor
2. Cop/Jailkeeper
3. Cop/VT
4. Doctor/Jailkeeper
5. Doctor/VT
6. Jailkeeper/VT

4, 5, and 6 are ruled out, so we have a 1/3 chance of no other PR at all.

[Packbat]

I'd wait for Monday before we declare them "lost", but they're certainly missing.

[Packbat]

However, I'm wondering why Packbat thinks WIFOM nightkills Night 1 are uncommon. Wouldn't keeping the town confused for as long as possible be beneficial for the scum?

I'm not giving a reason for it - I'm just telling you what I've seen. Considering it briefly, however, I would point out that a successful WIFOM kill N1 would be revealed to be a WIFOM kill by the lynch before the game was over, so there wouldn't be as much multiplication as you might think.

As for this whole "PR or scum" thing, I've always thought that claims were serious. If I'm asked to I will, but it's my understanding that they change the game, so I don't want to claim spontaneously.

+protown. That is exactly the correct attitude. In my one non-marathon scum game, I wanted to strangle my partner because he claimed D1 with almost zero provocation.

Packbat: Again, how do you feel about an Oversoul lynch?
[...]
Packbat, did you every reread D1 after MuffinMan's flip?

I don't have a strong case on Oversoul - Vader2401's flip threw my confidence, though, and going off of zMuffinMan's death was better than nothing. I don't regret the vote, though, because it seems to have resulted in Maruchan going off the rails in what might be an extremely revealing way (previewedit: and, apparently, dragging Oversoul with him).

Right now I think it better than even odds that Oversoul and Maruchan are the scumteam, and that they've placed their votes as a way of distancing themselves from each other. I won't bother shifting my vote right now, although I think Mar's scummier on his own merits, because both players are at L-2 and we're waiting for some AWOLs to return, but right this second I'm down with either lynch.

[Packbat]

Mod: Maruchan's vote is on Oversoul, I believe.

Opinion: Last night was a WIFOM Kill. It was either scum (including Oversoul) killing Oversoul's main aggressor and thinking they could say it was too obvious, or scum (excluding Oversoul) killing MuffinMan in hopes of framing MuffinMan's main suspect. I personally am leaning toward the latter.

Opinion: Packbat is Town setting Townie-Traps with his Oversoul vote (remember the underestimating scum or clever town comment? I didn't want to give it away.)

Opinion: Packbat's townie trap busted Smallpeoples.

VOTE: Smallpeoples

Protip: just because it works out as if it was planned doesn't mean it was.

UNVOTE: Oversoul

I voted Oversoul sincerely and honestly for the reason I gave - because he was zMuffinMan's top suspect - but in the subsequent play (and prior play, for that matter) Oversoul hasn't done anything legitimately scummy, while the reactions to my pointing at him have been terrible. Particularly smallpeoples343, who placed a vote on a purported

null

read just now.

And, after reading your post, Panacea, I realized that I made a minor error interpreting zMuffinMan's death. The suspicion does not necessarily fall on the player who zMuffinMan rated highest; it falls on the player

for whom zMuffinMan is the greatest threat

. And, in fact, small has exactly as much cause as Oversoul to kill zMuffinMan:

both

of them are players in Muffin's top three who drew little suspicion from the rest of the field. This gives smalls extra incentive to fire at Oversoul, being as this would tend to distract from the rest of zMuffinMan's list.

Plus, smalls has been playing a textbook scum game: lurk a lot, provide lots of IIoA, and let the town self-destruct without ever looking at you. I'm willing to place an

L-2

vote on him for that.

VOTE: smallpeoples343

[Packbat]

@Packbat, would you mind linking me to the list you mentioned by MuffinMan on who he suspected? I don't remember smallpeoples being one of MuffinMan's suspicions, I just remember the initial push on YOU (hmmmm. adds in to my above mentioned theory), then him changing his push to oversoul after their confrontation.

#445

So, yeah. Love when games stall.

Still thinking Oversoul>vader>small as my suspects.

That's mostly due to town reads of varying strength on every other player.

Check his ISO, too - he spends a moderate amount of time interrogating smallpeoples343 about actions the latter takes, notably the "numberQ is PR or scum" bit.

[Packbat]

Now he does, yes. He didn't when you placed your vote, and he didn't before Maruchan removed his vote.

[Packbat]

I didn't realize he was already at L-2, I was on Page 21, so I didn't see the new votecount.

Nnnno. Not kosher. [ic]

Always

check the votecount before you place a vote.[/ic] I go one step further and keep track myself of the votes placed.

Besides, if you had seen the new votecount before you voted, it would have said that there was one vote on Oversoul, so that doesn't fly either.

[Packbat]

Mod: Maruchan's vote is on Oversoul, I believe.

Fixed. Thank you.

Finding Oman replacement.

There was an error in the votecount.

Anyway, why are you bringing this up? This is yet another irrelevancy, as far as I can tell.

[Packbat]

along with my own reading of the tread, i would like a short summary from everyone describing the game.

...

interesting!

Let me see if I can come up with something.

[Packbat]

smallpeoples343, if you don't care about the game, it's better to replace out than to play it but devote no effort - being lazy does your team's win condition no good, and it doesn't make for a good game for anyone else, either.

(Doing some writing for school - I'll probably be in a position to give my summary in three hours or thereabouts.)

[Packbat]

No, it's not that I don't care about the game, I'm rather busy in some places, and lazy in others.

As was I in There Goes the Neighborhood. And the town vigilante (a one-shot restricted to shooting his neighbors) shot me instead of the mafia on his other side, and town went on to lose the game. Bad play is bad play - it doesn't help your team and it doesn't help you.

---

Stuntman, I would summarize the game as follows: After RVS, there was a period of time during the first several pages of the game when two players were major suspects, but much of the town was unwilling to place a vote: numberQ and zMuffinMan. After quite a bit of discussion, it was concluded by major drivers of the two wagons (or, at least, me) that the former was a newbie player who was making scumtells because he hadn't got his feet under him, and that the latter was unfairly attacked over a bog-standard RVS vote. The next wagon to develop momentum was on Maruchan - amusingly, for reasons highly similar to those which attracted suspicion to numberQ. The wagon stalled for a while at L-2 before Vader2401 replaced ValiliaRei, voted Maruchan despite having his vote there already thanks to ValiliaRei, and then almost immediately unvoted. Maruchan and Oman had votes sitting on Val previously; at this point I jumped in as well, citing Vader2401's sketchy writing style, and was followed a bit later by Panacea. As we approached deadline, zMuffinMan decided to hammer as a compromise, being as his top target, Oversoul, was not at that moment a viable lynch.

Day 2, I started off by attacking zMuffinMan's top candidate, Oversoul. Maruchan at this point when full dissociative-identity-disorder on it and started alternating between declaring that the grounds for voting Oversoul were weak and voting Oversoul himself. Due to this behavior, I expressed suspicion of him, and both numberQ and Oversoul voted him. Shortly afterwards, smallpeoples343 returned from who-knows-where to start playing again, declared that he was null on Oversoul ... then voted Oversoul for no adequately-explained reason. Panacea proposed at this point that my NK analysis was a trap designed to provoke just this kind of reaction from scum - which I denied, although I agreed with the conclusion about smalls, and both of us placed votes on him. Moments later, Maruchan unvoted from the now-dying Oversoul wagon.

And, shortly after that, Stuntman replaced Oman, which brings us up to date.

[Packbat]

quick question

dissociative-identity-disorder

wutdis?

If one were using it correctly: a mental illness previously known as "multiple personality disorder".

What I meant: a deviant style of play in which one acts according to two completely incompatible ideas of what one should be doing. In this case: both protesting that a purported fact was not true, and acting on said purported fact as if it were.

[Packbat]

I think you'd have had a hard time pinning responsibility for the mislynch on zMuffinMan, actually - it was a fairly reasonable we're-approaching-the-deadline compromise hammer in my book. The scumteam might not have agreed with me, of course.

[Packbat]

Mechanical engineer, actually - the closest I've come to law is playing Nomic.

Also, there's no requirement that we wait around for Stuntman - we could talk about smallpeoples343. In fact, I'll throw a question to the audience:

what is your read on smallpeoples343 and why?

Cite specifics where possible.

[Packbat]

My judgment is based on the following:

1. Chronic sheeping - his first vote out of RVS was to follow zMuffinMan onto a wagon on me, which he abandoned literally

one post

after numberQ left and weakened its momentum; then, after vanishing completely for the rest of D1, he reappears to drop a vote on Oversoul, the largest wagon of the moment.

2. Lurking - remember what I said about "vanishing completely for the rest of D1"? smallpeoples343 is barely present in the game, posting just enough to avoid getting replaced while allowing the town to self-destruct in his absence.

3. smallpeoples343 logical nightkill is zMuffinMan. Who died?

zMuffinMan.

[Packbat]

Nomic tends to be more confusing on the abstract level than in practice, at least in my experience. Any thoughts on smallpeoples343?

[Packbat]

is there a website for this Nomic game? if so can someone send me a link?

Best Nomic site I found is nomic.net - the Nomic Wiki is acting up at the moment, but that was where the database of all Nomic games resided. Here's archive.org's crawl of the Wiki circa 2009.

Stuntman, whereabouts are you reading up on the game?

[Packbat]

numberQ, did you see the new V/LA tab in the User Control Panel?

[Packbat]

See you Sunday!

[Packbat]

I don't know if scum slots see more replacements than town slots, though - without some data backing that up, I don't think we can draw real conclusions based on triply-replacing.

And yes, the quoted bit suggests that smallpeoples343/Stuntman is a possible pair - if we lynch smalls and he flips scum, Stuntman goes next.

[Packbat]

There are "marathon" games played here, on occasion, but in the normal course of events players frequently only log on once a day. Conversations in real time do occur, but one must be prepared for cases in which they do not.

Although I find Maruchan's behavior curious as well - his vote is idle, there was nothing to prevent him placing it.

Preview Edit: Speak of the devil! Maruchan, if I am your strongest read, why have you withheld your vote?

[Packbat]

pac? is that all you have to say about me voting you? your not even going to demonstrate the flaws if any in my logic?

Your argument is that I'm scum because I'm an IC who survived to see Day 2, and because there is an urban legend that sprouted up from who-knows-where that town-ICs are usually killed early in the game. That's not been my experience. Heck, in my very first game, that idea was proposed - and in that same game, the IC wasn't killed until Night 3.

In Post #530, Packbat completely changes his D2 line of attack, after pushing for the majority of the first part of the day on someone else, all because another townie-player points out easy to defend reasons why this new person is scum.

There is a lexicographical ambiguity here: are her reasons for suspecting him easy for

her

to defend,

me

to defend, or

him

to defend against?

He has completely changed his vote to someone opposite of what he said in Post #516 Where he said he thought me and Oversoul are a scumteam, he hasn't stated he no longer believes that yet now he is leading on Smallpeoples, not one of the previously mentioned suspects of his scumteam.

I am happy to exaggerate my confidence early in the day if I have nothing I consider definite to work from; a town that does nothing is near certain to lose, while a town that is active has a fair chance of victory. Sometimes this indeterminate read will prove prescient; in this case it attracted reactions from other players that were informative.

In Post #461 He states three possibilities for a night kill, then eliminates one which by a general consensus of the death, we all agreed was an unlikely reason for his death, but then goes on to eliminate a second purely on a hypothetical "WIFOMs n1 are uncommon", which honestly if it WERE a WIFOM, that would be a perfect double-WIFOM. Picture scum as thinking this: "WIFOMs n1 are uncommon, so we should totally do a WIFOM kill, just because NOBODY WOULD SEE IT COMING" Based off of this post, I know if I ever play with Packbat again, and I am scum, I am 100% more likely now to do a WIFOM n1 kill than a non-WIFOM n1 kill.

I wish you the greatest of luck in pulling this off.

PEDIT, speak of the devil Packbat, as I stated earlier I didn't want to vote until I had heard from Oman or his replacement. I was waiting. Stuntman has finally come in and said a little, so now I am more comfortable with voting, although I WOULD prefer to wait until he finishes catching up on D2, and then get some input from him.

I see.

I would also like from everyone a list of how they place everyone on a scale from scum-town like I did a few posts ago. I find these are very helpful, and will explain WHY I find them helpful after I see one from everyone.

Top three are smallpeoples343, Stuntman, and Maruchan. I haven't bothered to sort the rest - there's nothing I'd call compelling to distinguish between them for scumminess, except Oversoul's being zMuffinMan's top suspect. That would be relevant if Oversoul seemed scummy to me otherwise, but I'm just not feeling it.

[Packbat]

and yet you WERE feeling it for the past 4 pages, until you voted smallpeoples? What super-town action did he do to sway your reads on him?

Why, nothing. But I hadn't considered smallpeoples343 until Panacea suggested him, and between the two I found the choice moderately obvious.

[Packbat]

Yes.

[Packbat]

so if you didnt understand, i was bullshitting the whole time while i was rereading the thread. i probably wouldn't of done it if you hadn't asked for "substance".

I don't know why you were doing it in the first place - how was that supposed to help the town?

[Packbat]

its supposed to help me, and thats helping town. did you not read the big wall of text i wrote?

Yes, although not carefully until just now - I think I understand the gambit. I agree about not hammering right away, too - we have him at L-1, the next poster who thinks him scummy should be asking for a claim, first.

(By the way, it's "elicit" when you are seeking a response - "illicit" means illegal.)

[Packbat]

*headdesk* *headdesk* *headdesk*

[Packbat]

I think Maruchan/smallpeoples343 is unlikely if smalls flips scum.

I think Maruchan/Stuntman is unlikely if smalls flips town.

Otherwise I got nothing. I'll be here in the morning unless I'm not.

[Packbat]

Oh, one other thing: if smalls is town and we have a nightkill tonight, we will have 2 scum versus 5 town, which is LyLo. If any townie places a vote on any other townie at LyLo, scum can force a victory if they're online.

[Packbat]

I am here.

I think Stuntman's "let scum hammar!" is suspicious and a set up that he would want to use later in the day as the basis to vote someone.

Anyway, I am curious as to who will die tonight more than anything, although I fear they will go after an inactive in order to get the town down without indicating any connections. :\

If they did, they would be leaving the active-and-therefore-more-likely-to-scumhunt players alive - I would be surprised to see it, but it's possible.

Weird thing: instinctively, I'm inclined to believe Stuntman. If he goes back to BSing tomorrow, yeah, make him hang ... but voting as a trap is a towny thing to do.

[Packbat]

But all of the weak cases, bad logic, backtracking and excessive AtE are not. Let's say he is telling the truth about all of this "ruse" business. You don't think there's anything suspicious about the

timing

of his vote change?

It's consistent with his purported reasons. I'll look over your response to his wall again, though.

my vote was not a ploy. putting him at L1 was never a ploy. i truly beleived he was scum and voted him BECAUSE HE DIDNT RESPOND. not because i was trying to get more out of him. that would of been used against his REPLACEMENT, which you decided was best to not let someone else speak.

!

i was cheated too. my whole "gambit", the "ploy", was all to get more stuff out of smallpeople so i could use that information against him and others.

you're contradicting yourself here

His vote on

smalllpeopes343

was serious; his vote on

me

was a ploy.

[Packbat]

Bah!

*edits Wiki page*

Townies, avenge me!

[Packbat]

Thank you all for making my first IC game a fun experience, even if it did my batting average no good. It was grand watching you all get your feet under yourselves and start playing seriously.

Comments for specific players:

numberQ

Well I feel like I learned something this game: Be a lot more careful during LyLo. >_< Oh well, it was fun.

Heck, be careful if you even

smell

LyLo. You in particular I would say learned a lot this game - but there's two parts to the game, and the second part is the game theory and mathematics. One basic result of the math is simply that at LyLo, don't ever vote early and don't vote at all until you are certain, because scum have enough power to turn one vote into scum victory.

Panacea

:

You magnificent bastard, you had me fooled to the end. Superb scum play - and the kills were perfect from a WIFOM perspective, too. You played straight to the "kill experienced players first" meme, despite being the

most

experienced.

Stuntman

I knew you were town as soon as you finished your reread and posted that wall - but, as you saw, a lot of town players wouldn't. Think about it for a moment: scum's

job

is to BS, they can't do anything else ... and you were town, and BSing. Your strongest tool as town is being genuine. (And, as Jean Giraudoux is purported to have said and Panacea proved: "The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that you've got it made.").

Maruchan

I think Stuntman's advice is sound, but I agree with the mod - well done. The strongest criticism I can make is that you were hasty at the end - if you hadn't shot me N2, you'd be near the top of my scumlist for being the guy who quickhammered town, and if Panacea hadn't come back....

Preview Edit: As Stuntman reminds me:

never

talk about a game outside the game until the mod declares it over.

Never

. Not ever, not tangentially, not by implication, not even if you know the result,

never

. Mods will

sometimes

cut you slack, but you can't and

shouldn't

count on that.

[Packbat]

Curse you mafia scum! But no I really thought Stuntman was scum. Good game.

Also /in for next game.

no, you let maruchan and panacea sway you. perfect for them, especially with me being gone and all.

Not entirely sure how what you said isn't the same as what I said, but whatever.

You seemed like you were barely constraining rage throughout those entire posts. : P But yeah, it was a learning experience and my first real game of mafia. I'll definitely keep what you said and everything else I learned in mind for my next game.

PEdit: Sorry about talking about it in the queue. Hey, I'm still learning!

As they say: you win or you learn. Keep it up.

[Packbat]

The Oman replace was BRILLIANT. I was impressed.

It's a cool idea, but I don't think it won it for you; I know I didn't pay much attention to it.

[Packbat]

Packbat: You were awesome. You were excellent at moving the game forward and keeping everyone motivated. When I'm Town, that's what's most important to me. I honestly learned a few things from your constant supply of good tips and tricks. I'm trying to learn to mod: you should do a mod help tutorial.

Thank you! I only wish that just one more of those had been obeyed...

(I'm afraid my bank of moderator tricks is a lot thinner - the only real things I can think of are "be very active" and "make the game immune to flakes", and the MS community is very good about the latter already.)

Packbat, I look forward to playing with you in Crazy's campaign mafia.

I find it immensely entertaining just how many players I have met before are joining that game.

[Packbat]

Just started reading the QT.

I'm not sure. I was thinking maybe MuffinMan, and then we could say that Oversoul stood to gain the most, but part of me thinks that might be too obvious. Plus MuffinMan seems to think you're Town, which is bueno.

we can kill muffinman, then NOT plant the he oversoul had the most to gain ourselves, but let someone else say it.

Da-a-a-ang.

[Packbat]

could you clarify your dang for me please? I THINK its a "dang good play there" kind of dang, but I want to be sure

You are correct - that was me realizing that I was completely fooled.

(That's another thing I'm beating myself up about over this game - I shoulda smelled something was off when you were so ambivalent about the whole thing!)