Mini 1198 - Marketplace Mafia - Game Over

[PeregrineV]

/confirm

[PeregrineV]

@Magua- So if I bid on #1 and no one else does and win it, I get 2 cop investigations for $50.

And there may or may not be another auction similar to #1 tomorrow?

[PeregrineV]

NK IS MINE MUHAHAHA

really who the heck is bidding for setup information?

It can be used to determine the mafia funds, more or less.

You could ask "Does a mafia goon start out with more than 2 times the starting money of a vanilla townie?", "Does a mafia goon start out with more than 3 times the starting money of a vanilla townie?", "Does a mafia goon start out with more than 5 times the starting money of a vanilla townie?" so you can get an idea of mafia funds.

My first thought would be town and mafia starting funds be about equal, so 9 x $100= 3 x $300.
But the setup questions would help.

[PeregrineV]

Maybe they do, but they know alignment, we don't. They pay for NK, we don't pay for lynches. All other "roles" are for sale.

What would mafia want to know?

Maybe existence of an SK, but we'd want to know that too.

[PeregrineV]

Almost forgot my random vote.

Vote: ChaosOmega

Name is too cool. It's got Chaos. And Omega.

[PeregrineV]

For the sake of summarization I'll attempt to restate all of my thoughts in this post. I want

everyones

thoughts on these.

A 10 day lynch target should be set to attain a reasonable efficency bonus. Transfers should be publically announced before completion however the amount transfered can stay secret. Investment should be last resort and a player should bid all their funds on night-kill before investing. Advertising should be avoided for the early day phases of the game. Growing your business is overrated and shouldn't really be aimed at doing for any role in particular the exception being a cop who believes they're likely to be alive near the end game. Players should attempt to avoid openely claiming which bids are theirs this early on in the day as it gives mafia information to help amend their plans and plan their night kills however since Seacore has already claimed no one else should place a bid on Setup Information without openely stating suspicion towards Seacore.

Players shouldn't attempt to spread their bidding too thin and should set themselves a maxinum of two items to bid for. Cop, doctor, neighbourzier, setup information and night-kill should be what we ultimately aim for as they all provide the greatest benefit whereas Governor, Investigation Immunity, Extra vote and Vote nullifer should be considered aiming for soley to prevent mafia attaining them. Last will and oracle should not be aimed for as neither provide any real benefit for us or the scum. Whoever recieves nightkill should publically claim it and then a decision of whether we're vig-votting or not shall be made. Governor, Investigation Immunity, Setup Information, Extra Vote and Vote Nullifer should also consider open claiming when recieving the item.

If we were smartest about it, one person would bid on the cop, and no one else would bid on anything else. Then, the cop can investigate each night, since there is no NK.
However, that is out the window now with all the bids up.

We can still do a modified version. Whoever gets NK holds it and doesn't use it, while the cop can investigate each night. There are still flaws with this as scum could get cop and fake results, but additional cops and cross examination may fix this.

Of course, scum will deny bidding, but if town gets the NK, then we NL and let the cop(s) investigate. Doc can grow business that night.

Advertising is crucial for town. Town needs to advertise "cop" ability so that it is available for auction tomorrow (and every day).

Any of the abilities which can't be independently verified are harder to put controls on. Someone could claim setup info, we can determine the questions, but if they are scum they can either ask different questions entirely and/or lie about the answers. Some stuff, like Extra Vote, will become apparent, and don't really determine alignment.

Also, even though I like the Marketplace mechanic, we also need to use normal scumhunting methods, like questions, votes, etc.
With that being said:

Unvote.
Vote:malpascp

I mentioned the SK because it was in another Mini I played in. However, it shouldn't really affect how we play this game, as they would be vying for the Nk against the mafia. However, you seem keenly interested in the subject- unnaturally so. Can you please explain why?

[PeregrineV]

Advertising is bad due to the fact that someone can spend great amounts of funds advertising to assure that a particular item is up for grabs the following day only to have mafia outbid us for it wasting the money spent on advertising. A possible suggestion I was toying with earlier is asking our leading suspects to spend their funds on advertising potentially draining money from the scums fund pool however I haven't worked out if it's optimal yet or not.

Seacore has the leading bid on Setup Info for $41 and Hiphop has the leading bid on Investigation Immunity for $25. No one should attempt to outbid either of them on these items unless they openly state suspicion of these playesr in thread, any outbid of these items right now will be considered to be from scum.

Without advertising, we have no way of knowing what will be up for auction. Unless the Oracle person shares their results with us.

@Magua- Can Oracle winners share their results without it being considered quote a mod PM?

If they can't, then we can probably work around it, but let's see what Magua says.

[PeregrineV]

Why MS?

Because Ms thinks that me wanting the investigation immunity, is scum motivated. When it is far more likely that they would take the cop instead, since nobody could possibly outbid them. Essentially making investigation immunity null. All ms is doing is digging for something that is not there.

Don't be so naive.

Your basically saying scum have absolutely no motivation to acquire Investigation Immunity- when they are the the only roles it that it would even remotely be useful to. Townies, and even the proverbial TP, would have no use for it, other then to keep it from the mafia- because Cop Results come back, "Mafia" or "Not Mafia".

Also, don't be so presumptuous.

Mafia will be far more concerned with getting the NK, then any other ability.

======================================================

Regfan

- I don't understand why you continue to feel like Advertising is not to the Town's best interest.

Do you not understand that only the NK ability is guaranteed everyday?

We have every reason to use it- especially with Doctor and Cop abilities, simply because the ones today won't last forever, and then where will we be?

That said I agree with most of what you said, with the exception of Advertising and stating of transfers.

@Midnight- I would like to know where in the OP you read this, or failing that, how you came by this information (the bolded part). Thanks.

[PeregrineV]

@Midnight- I would like to know where in the OP you read this, or failing that, how you came by this information (the bolded part). Thanks.

I'm not Midnight, but III.1 (Auctions first point) basically says only NKx1 is the only guaranteed auction each day.

No that works, thanks. Was hoping to advertise it so it can never be advertised again, but if it's guaranteed than that's pointless.

[PeregrineV]

Thoughts on current auction:
12 Auction Detective- good if you suspect someone of purchasing an auction but aren't sure. Not so good now, probably better near endgame.
13 Commuter- could act as BP for town. Not so useful now with us able to track the NK through auction. More useful for scum, as could block investigation role.
15 Love Potion- very specifc like auction detective. Best for scum, or if you suspect someone strongly as scum.
16 Medium-

@Mod- Does this use a "usage" if your target player does not die?

This is hit or miss for town, but scum would know who they are targeting.
17 Night-kill- Town needs this.
18 Ninja-Town needs to keep this form scum. Can't think of any town uses, except if scum uses investigative roles.
19 Roleblocker- Good if town gets and gets lucky with RBing scum.
20 Tracker-Good for following suspicious players
21 Watcher-best of the two.

Yesterday's auction:
Not sure why cop went for $95. Either scum won it, or they tried to artificially inflate the price like we did for NK.
Kudos to Newman for accurate depiction of the day2 auction. Doesn't full indicate alignment, but gives a good example of something that's confirmable.

@Malpascp- Watcher is better because a target could have multiple visitors while a tracker only follows one person, who can usually only target one person. Watcher provides more information, which is reflected in the number of uses and the cost.

[PeregrineV]

Okay, let me lay all my cards out on the table for you. I lied when I said that I bid on Cop/NK on Day 1. I, for the life of me, can't remember where the $2 went. So, rather than rack my brain any further and try to figure it out, I claimed something that was not true. To be perfectly honest, I was sick and tired of defending the same fucking point over and over and over again today, so I got lazy. It happens. I'll be lynched for it. Thats fine.

Allow me to reiterate one point -

EVERYTHING

I have said/done (save the cop/NK D1 bid) has been 100% accurate and truthful. Not that I expect that to matter at this point.

FYI, I PM'd the mod for the Oracle for tomorrow, so if you want it, don't hammer me until he responds.

Why the hell would you lie about it? And this is not a rhetorical question.

[PeregrineV]

Starting cash = $100.
Win of bid on oracle = $20 + $1 transaction fee. Remaining funds = $79.

Penalty for not having highest bid = $2. Remaining funds = $77.

Investment = $50. Remaining funds = $27.
Day two started and wage recievement = $90. Remaining funds = $117.
Bid on nightkill = $116 + $1 penatly fee. Remaning funds = $116
Recievement of investment = $75. Remaining funds = $191
Bid on nightkill = $190 + $1 fee.

It all adds up.

@Ethos- You did the math and it seems to add up. However, I don't understand this line item. And it amounts to $2.

Also, you're claiming 2 power roles and requesting 2 more. While I'm pretty sure your town at this point, you can only use one ability at a time, and I am somewhat uneasy with putting it all on one player, as I'm sure you'll understand.

Would like to hear from the rest of town on the above, or I will be putting in for Watcher.

[PeregrineV]

Since I read of no town activity on auction 13, commuter, and I have no targeted abilities to use anyway, I have placed a bid for it. I'm OK with Ethos having Watcher, and I can't afford the NK to keep it from scum.

I'm assuming (probably wrong, but what can you do?) that scum won't bother with Doc, since they are buying NK, so am hoping Doc is being bought by town. Other auctions are either ended or discussed by players I think are town or I have no interest in.

[PeregrineV]

Okay, I've read the rules more, and I see a 99+1 bid would only spend 95 if there was a 94. Which still doesn't beat my 97, so mafia needs to die.

Who won the doctor on day 1? It was the ONLY protective role, and the NK didn't go to town, so your target is confirmed town. Rather want to know this since we know the night kill holder for today and if the CONFIRMED TOWN dies overnight we can speed lynch scum tomorrow too.

Also I have a neat plan once we have our confirmed town.

Instead of the doctor declaring, there is the possibility that WLC bought NK and then was lynched and so it was unused.

[PeregrineV]

Last notice was Ethos was outbid for it. I asked if he was going to raise bid, with intent to do so if he did not, but didn't receive an answer, so did not bid on it.

[PeregrineV]

My strongest scum read is Icey by far, his actions throughout today have included obvious contradictions, changing of reads with minimal reasoning and insistence that Newman is scum when he was very quick to drop suspicion of Newman earlier in the day when the wagon seemed like it might die down.

Other scum reads I have include Midnight (Floating between weak scum and null), Mal (Floating between weak town, null and weak scum) and at the moment Pere actually (Bidding related reasons which I'll go into later).

Sure Town: (Seacore, Hiphop, RedCoyote)
Likely Town: (GreyICE, LLD)
Leaning Town: (Chaos, Mal)
Null: (Newman)
Scum: (Icey, Pere, Ghostlin)

Vote Ghostlin

-Ghostlin was most likely bus on the WNC wagon (Basically Reg and I thought that wagon happened too smoothly for it to likely be all town: RedCoyote pushed the lynch and is obvtown now, LLD is likely-town, Hiphop+Seacore are obvtown. Only other possible bus on there is Newman.)
-GreyICE's initial willingness to lock votes in between him and his pseudo-CC
-Ghostlin's overall reaction to the situation has been relatively more scummier than GreyIce's
-Ghost's failure to grasp GI's reason for voting him (GI asserts that Ghostlin isn't looking into what caused the confusion, but rather Ghostlin is just pushing on GI)

Indeed it is.

Hip, I know newman lied, but I still think Ice/Pere are better targets. His actions prior to that fiasco just scream town.

@Ethos- interesting transition on me with no explanation. Also since you didn't get around to it, I hope to hear why not.This should help.


And while explaining, would also be interested in what Malp said that increased your Malp=town read after Post 400. I couldn't find anything ultra-townie, but you did.

[PeregrineV]

I currently have $97, and a "paycheck" balance of $65 I can take a "payday loan" from.

In case you're not here tomorrow, it looks like you are a non-standard role. If you did not win, it also looks like you did not receive a wage. If that is the case, what is the source of your payday loan if you don't get a wage? Also, was that ability available day1?

[PeregrineV]

@Seacore- with 2 scum teams (which I am unfortunately leaning towards), it doesn't necessarily have to be a gambit.

[PeregrineV]

First off, good job hiphop.

@Ethos, you've managed to list that I need to be lynched 5 times today, but never managed to say why exactly. Since the rest of us left RVS a long time ago, those tactics don't fly anymore.

Also, it's obvious in one case who you neighbored, as you're posting their answers before they do. Since we are full disclosing, there is no reason not to.
Is there?

@Seacore-
start $100
NK bid $99 (outbid by scum)
day1 end $99+$50wage+$40efficiency=$189

day2 start $189
bid $189 on commuter (won for $51)
day2 end $137+$50wage+$25efficiency=$212

@Voided- Not really sure why you're suddenly a better choice for the NK than hiphop. He did fine with it last night. And to top it off, why would you need the hitman skill in addition to the NK. Those two abilities have a synergy that town doesn't need.

As a matter of fact, until I hear a better explanation about why you want to have the ability to NK and bypass RB, BP and doc protection,

Vote: Voidedmafia

Also Since post 674 and 675 confuse me even after I make your correction, can you re-post the totally corrected post of what and how much you bid on what days?

[PeregrineV]

I think it is pretty obvious why he wants it. Its so if scum have roleblocker, he can still make the kill. If scum have BP, he can still make the kill. His night kill will be 100% AND confirmable. Do you really think he is going to go off and shoot other people when we KNOW he has the night kill? Have you even thought that through? We have quite a few mislynches after 3 antitown people in a row have been lynched, there is no way he would try that sort of shit yet.

Up until now your entire ISO has been setup speculation with the exception of your defensive interactions with us and your light pressure on Newman. Your reaction to us wanting to kill you or ice because we had a town read on mal was suspicious because you jumped all over the mal town read but totally ignored anything that had to do with Ice. You saying at the end of yesterday you were leaning towards two-scum setup instead of 2/1/10 is also bad now that we have a second mafia faction flipped.

If scum has RB then why didn't they RB hiphop who had the Nk last night and had Icey as a possible target?

And as watcher knowing this might happen, you should be watching hiphop, so if he was RB we would know who.

If town has RB than they can claim, since there's one scum left. If dead scum has RB, then it doesn't matter.

There is no BP. GreyIce is bidding now, when there is absolutely no reason, as town should get the NK. Why be afraid of mafia NK when they don't have one?
I have the next thing, commuter, from yesterday. I announced my bidding in thread, and no one called me out, so I got it.

Do you really think he is going to go off and shoot other people when we KNOW he has the night kill?

What? What other people? Are you planning on directing the NK? And why mislynch of we can lynch scum?

Your reaction to us wanting to kill you or ice because we had a town read on mal was suspicious because you jumped all over the mal town read but totally ignored anything that had to do with Ice.

Yes, because you have yet to point out where that town read on mal came from. Then it became "gut".

You saying at the end of yesterday you were leaning towards two-scum setup instead of 2/1/10 is also bad now that we have a second mafia faction flipped.

What? My idea of a two scumteam setup is bad now that we have two proven scum teams? Are you even reading the thread (either one of you, I guess)?

And aside from Malp becoming town, you never answered my queestion about this post:

My strongest scum read is Icey by far, his actions throughout today have included obvious contradictions, changing of reads with minimal reasoning and insistence that Newman is scum when he was very quick to drop suspicion of Newman earlier in the day when the wagon seemed like it might die down.

Other scum reads I have include Midnight (Floating between weak scum and null), Mal (Floating between weak town, null and weak scum) and at the moment Pere actually (Bidding related reasons which I'll go into later).

Link to the question is in the quote.

P-edit: Voided- I'll address your post separately.

[PeregrineV]

@Voided- I explained why in my post to Ethos. Explain why you need NK instead of hiphop, and why you need to punch through town-controlled abilities when all countering abilites are either accounted for or would lead us to find scum.

[PeregrineV]

So you really meant this:

I started out with $100. Lost a buck in bidding for Last Will (bid for $29), then invested $99. The wage and efficiency bring me to $90 at D1's close.

Next day, failed $50 bid for Watcher (-$1). investment matures so I get 147.

Successfully big $99 on Last Will

, then we get my wage, efficiency, and Ghostlin's Last Will for $99 extra bucks and Tracker.

And today I got Grey's transfer, and then bid on Hitman, NK, and invested.

So to clarify, I didn't get Last Will from Ghost. Rather, the way the summary was worded made me assume that last Will came from Ghostlin (I know, I suck for not double-checking the transcript itself, I know).

VoidedMafia (Redcoyote):

Start $100- lost Last Will bid, invested $99
Day2 start =$50wag+$40efficiency=$90

Day2 bid watcher (why, btw, when Ethos requested and no one countered?), lose $1, investment comes in at $147, total of $147+$90-$1=$236
$236+$50wage+$25efficiency=$311

Day3 start= $311+$99 (last will from Ghostlin)= $400
current bids on NK ($151+) & Hitman ($50+), remainder invested.

Is this right?

[PeregrineV]

Scum could have the NK this night, but thought hiphop would NK town, so they didn't use it.

So are you saying that day2 scum could have gotten NK but let hiphop win it anyway in the hope that he would kill town instead of them?

I guess it's possible, but it seems like leaving something to chance when you don't have to.

But also another good reason for hiphop to get it again, IMO.

[PeregrineV]

Voided isn't bloody scum WHAT THE FUCK YOU MORONS.

HEY I'M NOT SCUM EITHER WHAT THE FUCK YOU MORONS!

WHO NEEDS FUCKING CASES ANYMORE WHEN WE GOT CAPSLOCK AND HEADS UP OUR ASSES?!?!

IF I'M STILL AT L-1 WHEN I LOG BACK IN THE MORNING I'LL PROBABLY SELF-HAMMER OUT OF FUCKING DISGUST!!!

[PeregrineV]

If town has RB than they can claim, since there's one scum left. If dead scum has RB, then it doesn't matter.

This. This. This. This. This. If town has RB they need to claim it ASAP because there was a roleblocking that occured last night.

What? What other people? Are you planning on directing the NK? And why mislynch of we can lynch scum?

The nightkill is directed, it has been agreed upon that the nightkill will be on either Chaos and Newman, do you have any qualms with either of these dying and apart from Void do you beleive anyone else is scum or likely scum?

I'll let Slaxx discuss his mal-town read but from what I can gather it's decreased and he has some slight feelings that Mal is the SK in the game however neither of us are comfortable lynching Mal for the time being. Our suspicions against you really stem from your interaction with Ice, your lack of scumhunting that has occured in the game. You seem to be focusing soley on the auctions which don't get me wrong is highly beneficial and I've spend time focusing on it myself however that alone doesn't help us nor does it make it seem like you're attempting to nail the remaining scum.

IT'D BE NICE TO HAVE SOME TIME TO LOOK BACK OVER THE THREAD AND ANSWER THE QUESTIONS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE I'M BEING FUCKING LYNCHED FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER.

WHY IS HALF THE THREAD CLAIMING TO BE SCUMHUNTING WUNDERKINDS AND YET FLINGING VOTES LIKE MONKEYS FLING SHIT????

I DON'T GET IT!!

[PeregrineV]

GI, I hate your attitude. I play this game for fun and I'll play it however I please. I have won games doing stuff like this in the past. Analysing games and PR results. I scum hunt far better this way than by reading motivations. I also enjoy it. So you're not going to stop me from doing it.

I dislike the way you call people morons, I dislike the way you use Caps for no good reason. And I'm asking to stop.

HE

[PeregrineV]

GI, I hate your attitude. I play this game for fun and I'll play it however I please. I have won games doing stuff like this in the past. Analysing games and PR results. I scum hunt far better this way than by reading motivations. I also enjoy it. So you're not going to stop me from doing it.

I dislike the way you call people morons, I dislike the way you use Caps for no good reason. And I'm asking to stop.

NOW YOU CAN ASK ME TO STOP TOO!! YOU CAN'T CLAIM ANALSYSIS AND THEN DO SHIT LIKE THIS:

Anyway, with that done

Vote Pere

HERPDERP LET'S LYNCH HIM SINCE HE WJKW3OEFGIO;WRFGI;WEIL AND WEFOJWEF;'IW4FKWEFL;L;KL
HUHUHUHUHUH

[PeregrineV]

Unvote.
Vote: PeregrineV