Open 322: C9++ [Game Over - Scum Win]
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Honest Abel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: January 5, 2010
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Kcdaspot He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5275
- Joined: November 17, 2010
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Yes Im Here Still
Amor wrote:
HonestAbel wrote:By the way, Amor, what are your feelings on other players? You've been tunneling me since the beginning of the game, why not take a break?
@kcdaspot -- Can you explain the sudden reversal in your reads?
First, LOL.
Second.. since AH DID point it out i decided to keep DCJ in the back of my head.
So When i voted him I STILL thought he had somewhat of a town feel for him. When he began to be cross with me THEN it went south. The cop claim was just nail in the coffin.A question that sometimes drives me hazy: am I or are the others crazy?-
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Kcdaspot He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
- Jack of All Trades
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- Joined: November 17, 2010
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Yes Im Here Still
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Honest Abel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Joined: January 5, 2010
Like I didn't know that. That's why I find the tunneling confusing. He's trying too hard to see what he wants to see. But he's only doing it with me. Scum would probably be giving confusing reads all over the place. I just can't figure out what he's up to.
I'm AH, right? Should be HA, but you can just call me Abel."He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt."ÔÇöJoseph Heller,Catch-22-
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Kcdaspot He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5275
- Joined: November 17, 2010
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Yes Im Here Still
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Nobody Special Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 14479
- Joined: January 6, 2010
- Location: Not here
I don't really like the way you affix such absolute labels on people.Kcdaspot wrote:AH...
leaning town.
Back off AH, amor is town
Why is Amor town?-
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Kcdaspot He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5275
- Joined: November 17, 2010
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Yes Im Here Still
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Kcdaspot He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5275
- Joined: November 17, 2010
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Yes Im Here Still
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Honest Abel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: January 5, 2010
Doing a quick rank of everyone before my meeting, I'll give a little more detail later. Top being most town, bottom being most scum. The line represents the break between town and scum.
izak, Kcdaspot
SGRaaize, Amor
don_johnson
———————
projectmatt
NS, DCJ"He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt."ÔÇöJoseph Heller,Catch-22-
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GMan Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 394
- Joined: January 19, 2011
- Location: UK
Vote Count 2.6
- Darkcoffeejazz (4): Nobody Special, Kcdaspot, don_johnson, Honest Abel [L-1]
- Honest Abel (1): Amor
Not voting: SGRaaize, izakthegoomba, projectmatt
With9alive, it takes5to lynch.
- Day 2 Deadline is Thursday August 25th, 1:30PM EST.
Last edited by GMan on Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total."The right man in the wrong place can make all the difference in the world."-
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Honest Abel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: January 5, 2010
I've thought from the beginning that Amor was town because of the pressure he's trying to put on me. The relentless tunneling is weird, but the pressure is decent. However, he's been twisting a lot of my posts to make them seem scummier than they are, or just to make it look like I'm not being logical. It absolutely adds pressure and puts me on the defensive, but a lot of it is forced. I don't mean that his purposes are scummy. In fact, I'm quite confused about his purposes, but it's clear he has some if he's not backing off of me. I would have to do a closer analysis of Amor if I want to change my mind about his alignment. But right now I'm keeping him on my town list.Kcdaspot wrote:Honest Abel wrote:Above post is just one example in a sea of many in which you misquote and distort my statements to suit your purposes.
You seemREALsure about that town read, eh?
It would help to know why he's so certain I'm scum that he won't say more than a single line about any other player. He's absolutely acting as though he's a cop and got a scum result on me."He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt."ÔÇöJoseph Heller,Catch-22-
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Honest Abel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Joined: January 5, 2010
This probably means nothing, but I just looked at the setup and figured out the odds of having two scum: 1/128. Seems small, but when you think about it, it's actually the highest odds out of any setup. There's a .5 chance of getting a T. There's a lot less chance of getting any other letter. So compare TTTTTTT (2 scum) to, say, TTTTTTD (3 scum and a doctor), and the comparison you're looking at is 1/128 to 1/640. Kcd's mathematics on the situation and the way everyone swallowed it was bugging me because it seemed like Ts are easier to get, and they are. I'm not particularly bothered to continue doing the math right now, but considering that only three of the remaining seven possibilities (T, TTT, TTTTT) allow for three scum, it's certain, and likely overwhelming, that the odds are in favor of us having two or four scum over having three scum."He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt."ÔÇöJoseph Heller,Catch-22-
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izakthegoomba Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2641
- Joined: April 11, 2011
- Location: World 1-1
Still reading, finished D1.
I really dislike SGRaaize's total lack of contribution. I will hold further judgement until I see how it develops.
Amor doesn't post much, but when he does I get town vibes.
I think Honest Abel is/was town.
NS is finding excuses not to participate, posts giving reads when prompted, does little else, picks on (fellow) lurkers. As highlighted by Kdca on p14. Scumpoints.
Darkcoffeejazz wrote:Yes, the cake CAN be a lie, but sometimes a cake is just that... a cake. With frosting. And sprinkles.
I love this post.
I would probably have been on the DonJosh wagon if I had been there. The downside of the flip is that, as far as I can tell, DonJosh's interactions don't yield much info.
I will read more tomorrow.(Mostly) on hiatus until further notice. Planet MafiaScum 2 will be modded by Inspi and JDGA - go check it out!-
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Amor Goon
- Goon
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- Posts: 531
- Joined: March 14, 2008
- Location: Toronto, ON, Canada
Honest Abel wrote:This probably means nothing, but I just looked at the setup and figured out the odds of having two scum: 1/128. Seems small, but when you think about it, it's actually the highest odds out of any setup. There's a .5 chance of getting a T. There's a lot less chance of getting any other letter. So compare TTTTTTT (2 scum) to, say, TTTTTTD (3 scum and a doctor), and the comparison you're looking at is 1/128 to 1/640. Kcd's mathematics on the situation and the way everyone swallowed it was bugging me because it seemed like Ts are easier to get, and they are. I'm not particularly bothered to continue doing the math right now, but considering that only three of the remaining seven possibilities (T, TTT, TTTTT) allow for three scum, it's certain, and likely overwhelming, that the odds are in favor of us having two or four scum over having three scum.
Yeah, that may be more likely than any other single set-up, but it's vastly less likely than the total group of set-ups that have more than 2 scum. You're doing statistics wrong. And the fact that there was only one kill last night means we probably don't have a serial killer, so that increases the odds of a 3-man scum team.
Even ignoring this particular set-ups, mini normals generally have 3 scum, so it would be completely normal for town to think that way automatically. When it comes to scumslips the question to ask is simply "Is it possible that this person would post this if they were town?" and here I think the answer is definitely "Yes", no matter your attempts to muddy the issue.
HonestAbel wrote:It would help to know why he's so certain I'm scum that he won't say more than a single line about any other player. He's absolutely acting as though he's a cop and got a scum result on me.
Kcdaspot wrote:amor needs to back off of able too.
I wrote:I've been "tunneling" you because I don't want you to escape out of the spotlight do to things like DCJ imploding or whatever. I'm sure you're scum (omg certainty this means we're buddies) so why focus on looking for other scum when I only have one vote?
With that said/quoted, I seem to be the only person left on the Abel wagon, so it might be more productive to drop it at least for today. I've been debating about whether or not to hammer DCJ. On the one hand, his premature claim was extremely suspicious, and the rest of his play doesn't do much to mitigate that. But I'm also wary of lynching a claimed cop. If we're wrong about him being scum, then leaving him alive for a few more days will give us information we need, and if we're right then he'll get himself tangled up in fake results soon enough. What do you guys think?ShowCurrent Record (wins-losses-abandoned)
Town: 3-5
Scum: 2-3-1
For my thoughts on non-scum-related things, see my Twitter or my blog The Eternal Couch Potato.-
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Kcdaspot He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5275
- Joined: November 17, 2010
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Yes Im Here Still
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Kcdaspot He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5275
- Joined: November 17, 2010
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Yes Im Here Still
Honest Abel wrote:This probably means nothing, but I just looked at the setup and figured out the odds of having two scum: 1/128. Seems small, but when you think about it, it's actually the highest odds out of any setup. There's a .5 chance of getting a T. There's a lot less chance of getting any other letter. So compare TTTTTTT (2 scum) to, say, TTTTTTD (3 scum and a doctor), and the comparison you're looking at is 1/128 to 1/640. Kcd's mathematics on the situation and the way everyone swallowed it was bugging me because it seemed like Ts are easier to get, and they are. I'm not particularly bothered to continue doing the math right now, but considering that only three of the remaining seven possibilities (T, TTT, TTTTT) allow for three scum, it's certain, and likely overwhelming, that the odds are in favor of us having two or four scum over having three scum.
This is the most useless post all game.
guess who already said this?
A question that sometimes drives me hazy: am I or are the others crazy?-
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Honest Abel Mafia Scum
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- Joined: January 5, 2010
I prefaced it by saying it probably doesn't mean anything, so you didn't have to read it. And you didn't say all that. You said that the odds of having three scum are overwhelming, which is why you thought there were three scum. Whereas it's actually overwhelming that there aren't three scum. You said the opposite. Which might mean something to somebody at some point."He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt."ÔÇöJoseph Heller,Catch-22-
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Honest Abel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 1041
- Joined: January 5, 2010
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Amor Goon
- Goon
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- Posts: 531
- Joined: March 14, 2008
- Location: Toronto, ON, Canada
Kcdaspot wrote:This is the most useless post all game.
Sir, may I direct you to the post history of one Mr. Special?ShowCurrent Record (wins-losses-abandoned)
Town: 3-5
Scum: 2-3-1
For my thoughts on non-scum-related things, see my Twitter or my blog The Eternal Couch Potato.-
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Honest Abel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: January 5, 2010
@Amor: I just realized I was doing the statistics wrong, but not for the reasons you pointed out. Real stats of three scum vs. two scum w/o SK: 3:1. But I guess we can talk in a thread about C9++ if we want to continue that conversation.
Attempts to muddy the issue? I believe it was either a town mistake or a scum slip, and I never said otherwise. What is unclear?Amor wrote:Even ignoring this particular set-ups, mini normals generally have 3 scum, so it would be completely normal for town to think that way automatically. When it comes to scumslips the question to ask is simply "Is it possible that this person would post this if they were town?" and here I think the answer is definitely "Yes", no matter your attempts to muddy the issue.
That's a reasonable attitude, but if he's scum, how do you know he'll get tangled up in fake results soon enough? Imagine we lynch a townie today, and DCJ leads us to falsely lynch a townie tomorrow (we'd have to trust him to see if he's right, assuming he posts a guilty result). We'd then have to wait to lynch him the following day. So that's 1 townie lynched + 1 townie nightkilled + 1 townie lynched + 1 townie nightkilled + 1 townie nightkilled = 5 town killed before we can begin looking for the final scum, if there is one (odds are 3:1 there are three scum; knew that would come in handy). That would put us in a two-town-vs.-goon final day, right? Maybe that's actually the most logical thing to do.Amor wrote:I've been debating about whether or not to hammer DCJ. On the one hand, his premature claim was extremely suspicious, and the rest of his play doesn't do much to mitigate that. But I'm also wary of lynching a claimed cop. If we're wrong about him being scum, then leaving him alive for a few more days will give us information we need, and if we're right then he'll get himself tangled up in fake results soon enough. What do you guys think?
UNVOTE: Darkcoffeejazz
Kcd, I don't see how DCJ already got fake results. Explain please?"He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt."ÔÇöJoseph Heller,Catch-22-
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don_johnson Jack of All Trades
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Kcdaspot He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5275
- Joined: November 17, 2010
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Yes Im Here Still
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Honest Abel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 1041
- Joined: January 5, 2010
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Honest Abel Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: January 5, 2010
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don_johnson Jack of All Trades
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Kcd, I don't see how DCJ already got fake results. Explain please?
this game is dying. are there any lurkers? kc, please answer this one so we can move forward. i am ok with the dcj wagon, but i don't see the harm in lynching our second scummiest and directing his investigation. if he's a fake cop, then there could be a real cop out there which gives us a counterclaim later and doubles our results(half of which would be fake, but still helpful). i guess there is a slim possibility of two cops? even still, then we get more results as well. he cleared me(which should have been obvious) so why not let him cough up another? amor's case on abel isn't terrible. i don't think either of those slots are obvtown. and i'm sure if we put in the effort we can find another worthy lynch today. let me know. i'm happy to put my vot back on dcj, but i don't see the harm in talking about options.town 39-32
mafia 17-9
sk 0-6
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