Open 322: C9++ [Game Over - Scum Win]

[Honest Abel]

Above post is just one example in a sea of many in which you misquote and distort my statements to suit your purposes.

[Kcdaspot]

By the way, Amor, what are your feelings on other players? You've been tunneling me since the beginning of the game, why not take a break?

@kcdaspot -- Can you explain the sudden reversal in your reads?

First, LOL.

Second.. since AH DID point it out i decided to keep DCJ in the back of my head.

So When i voted him I STILL thought he had somewhat of a town feel for him. When he began to be cross with me THEN it went south. The cop claim was just nail in the coffin.

[Kcdaspot]

AH...

leaning town.

Back off AH, amor is town

[Honest Abel]

Like I didn't know that. That's why I find the tunneling confusing. He's trying too hard to see what he wants to see. But he's only doing it with me. Scum would probably be giving confusing reads all over the place. I just can't figure out what he's up to.

I'm AH, right? Should be HA, but you can just call me Abel.

[Kcdaspot]

Above post is just one example in a sea of many in which you misquote and distort my statements to suit your purposes.

You seem

REAL

sure about that town read, eh?

[Nobody Special]

AH...

leaning town.

Back off AH, amor is town

I don't really like the way you affix such absolute labels on people.

Why is Amor town?

[Kcdaspot]

Spoiler: A amor town post.

Would someone mind explaining the votes on me?

Josh's flip just further adds to my suspicion of Abel, or whoever ends up replacing him. Look at how he initially says he's suspicious of both Matt and Josh, then quickly pulls back on the Josh suspicion:

So it appears to me that the two scummiest (and indeed, only two scummy) of Day 1 are projectmatt and DonJosh (and not just because I can read the vote count). projectmatt being the far scummier of the two

Both players have exhibited scummy behavior, and are actually the only people I think have done so thus far in the thread. projectmatt much moreso than DonJosh, but still.

There's always that caveat there, that he suspects Matt more than Josh. I think this falls under the old tell about a vote and a FoS. Although Abel does neither in these posts, the intention is still there: "I suspect my buddy, but I suspect his counterwagon even more!"

In his next post he proceeds to soft-defending Josh by attacking Matt's case on him.

Based on that "wall," it seems like projectmatt finds DonJosh scummy for two reasons:

DonJosh forgot that there was a reroll (something NS also admitted)
DonJosh seemed overly defensive (something that projectmatt himself is more guilty of)

Based on what projectmatt has said and nothing else, I find a disparity between his weak suspicions of DonJosh and his confidence that DonJosh is scum. If we were to lynch DonJosh and he flips scum, projectmatt should definitely be the next move. My only concern is that DonJosh doesn't seem scummy enough to me to lynch at the moment.

This is a clear-cut case of defending someone while stating a token suspicion on them, which is clear scum-scum interaction. He's basically attacking the case against Josh and Matt is scummy for voting him, while hedging it in a language that tries to make it looks like he still suspects Josh. The last paragraph is extremely revealing. He sets up a chain lynch on Matt if Josh flips scum, despite saying that he doesn't really think Josh is scummy. Plan B is clearly taking shape here.

I'm assuming you're talking about DonJosh when you say "His reaction was panic"? Or Big Sleep? I can see that applying to DonJosh's reaction to the two-vote wagon. But since then, he hasn't been defending himself or panicking at all, it seems. Which is why I said earlier that it would be better to put more pressure on you guys.

At this point -- only one RL day since his post expressing suspicion of Josh -- he's full-on defending him. Buddylicious.

It's also worth noting that despite these suspicions Abel never voted for either one, instead eventually voting for DCJ (OMGUS, sort of) and bv310 (lurker vote).

tl;dr: Abel said he was suspicious of Josh but then proceeded to attack Matt a lot more and even defend Josh. This means they're scumbuddies.

Unvote
Vote HonestAbel

P. S.

Good job on lynching scum, everyone, will reread soon.

This looks fake as heck.

sup?

[Kcdaspot]

amor needs to back off of able too.

[Honest Abel]

Doing a quick rank of everyone before my meeting, I'll give a little more detail later. Top being most town, bottom being most scum. The line represents the break between town and scum.

izak, Kcdaspot
SGRaaize, Amor
don_johnson
———————
projectmatt
NS, DCJ

[GMan]

Vote Count 2.6

• Darkcoffeejazz (4): Nobody Special, Kcdaspot, don_johnson, Honest Abel
  [L-1]
  
  
• Honest Abel (1): Amor

Not voting: SGRaaize, izakthegoomba, projectmatt

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

• Day 2 Deadline is Thursday August 25th, 1:30PM EST.

[Honest Abel]

Above post is just one example in a sea of many in which you misquote and distort my statements to suit your purposes.

You seem

REAL

sure about that town read, eh?

I've thought from the beginning that Amor was town because of the pressure he's trying to put on me. The relentless tunneling is weird, but the pressure is decent. However, he's been twisting a lot of my posts to make them seem scummier than they are, or just to make it look like I'm not being logical. It absolutely adds pressure and puts me on the defensive, but a lot of it is forced. I don't mean that his purposes are scummy. In fact, I'm quite confused about his purposes, but it's clear he has some if he's not backing off of me. I would have to do a closer analysis of Amor if I want to change my mind about his alignment. But right now I'm keeping him on my town list.

It would help to know why he's so certain I'm scum that he won't say more than a single line about any other player. He's absolutely acting as though he's a cop and got a scum result on me.

[Honest Abel]

This probably means nothing, but I just looked at the setup and figured out the odds of having two scum: 1/128. Seems small, but when you think about it, it's actually the highest odds out of any setup. There's a .5 chance of getting a T. There's a lot less chance of getting any other letter. So compare TTTTTTT (2 scum) to, say, TTTTTTD (3 scum and a doctor), and the comparison you're looking at is 1/128 to 1/640. Kcd's mathematics on the situation and the way everyone swallowed it was bugging me because it seemed like Ts are easier to get, and they are. I'm not particularly bothered to continue doing the math right now, but considering that only three of the remaining seven possibilities (T, TTT, TTTTT) allow for three scum, it's certain, and likely overwhelming, that the odds are in favor of us having two or four scum over having three scum.

[izakthegoomba]

Still reading, finished D1.

I really dislike SGRaaize's total lack of contribution. I will hold further judgement until I see how it develops.

Amor doesn't post much, but when he does I get town vibes.

I think Honest Abel is/was town.

NS is finding excuses not to participate, posts giving reads when prompted, does little else, picks on (fellow) lurkers. As highlighted by Kdca on p14. Scumpoints.

Yes, the cake CAN be a lie, but sometimes a cake is just that... a cake. With frosting. And sprinkles.

I love this post.

I would probably have been on the DonJosh wagon if I had been there. The downside of the flip is that, as far as I can tell, DonJosh's interactions don't yield much info.

I will read more tomorrow.

[Amor]

This probably means nothing, but I just looked at the setup and figured out the odds of having two scum: 1/128. Seems small, but when you think about it, it's actually the highest odds out of any setup. There's a .5 chance of getting a T. There's a lot less chance of getting any other letter. So compare TTTTTTT (2 scum) to, say, TTTTTTD (3 scum and a doctor), and the comparison you're looking at is 1/128 to 1/640. Kcd's mathematics on the situation and the way everyone swallowed it was bugging me because it seemed like Ts are easier to get, and they are. I'm not particularly bothered to continue doing the math right now, but considering that only three of the remaining seven possibilities (T, TTT, TTTTT) allow for three scum, it's certain, and likely overwhelming, that the odds are in favor of us having two or four scum over having three scum.

Yeah, that may be more likely than any other single set-up, but it's vastly less likely than the total group of set-ups that have more than 2 scum. You're doing statistics wrong. And the fact that there was only one kill last night means we probably don't have a serial killer, so that increases the odds of a 3-man scum team.

Even ignoring this particular set-ups, mini normals generally have 3 scum, so it would be completely normal for town to think that way automatically. When it comes to scumslips the question to ask is simply "Is it possible that this person would post this if they were town?" and here I think the answer is definitely "Yes", no matter your attempts to muddy the issue.

It would help to know why he's so certain I'm scum that he won't say more than a single line about any other player. He's absolutely acting as though he's a cop and got a scum result on me.

amor needs to back off of able too.

I've been "tunneling" you because I don't want you to escape out of the spotlight do to things like DCJ imploding or whatever. I'm sure you're scum (omg certainty this means we're buddies) so why focus on looking for other scum when I only have one vote?

With that said/quoted, I seem to be the only person left on the Abel wagon, so it might be more productive to drop it at least for today. I've been debating about whether or not to hammer DCJ. On the one hand, his premature claim was extremely suspicious, and the rest of his play doesn't do much to mitigate that. But I'm also wary of lynching a claimed cop. If we're wrong about him being scum, then leaving him alive for a few more days will give us information we need, and if we're right then he'll get himself tangled up in fake results soon enough. What do you guys think?

[Kcdaspot]

FoS to amor.

Those last two sentences...

he already got fake results.

[Kcdaspot]

This probably means nothing, but I just looked at the setup and figured out the odds of having two scum: 1/128. Seems small, but when you think about it, it's actually the highest odds out of any setup. There's a .5 chance of getting a T. There's a lot less chance of getting any other letter. So compare TTTTTTT (2 scum) to, say, TTTTTTD (3 scum and a doctor), and the comparison you're looking at is 1/128 to 1/640. Kcd's mathematics on the situation and the way everyone swallowed it was bugging me because it seemed like Ts are easier to get, and they are. I'm not particularly bothered to continue doing the math right now, but considering that only three of the remaining seven possibilities (T, TTT, TTTTT) allow for three scum, it's certain, and likely overwhelming, that the odds are in favor of us having two or four scum over having three scum.

This is the most useless post all game.

guess who already said this?

[Honest Abel]

I prefaced it by saying it probably doesn't mean anything, so you didn't have to read it. And you didn't say all that. You said that the odds of having three scum are overwhelming, which is why you thought there were three scum. Whereas it's actually overwhelming that there aren't three scum. You said the opposite. Which might mean something to somebody at some point.

[Honest Abel]

It doesn't mean anything to me. You just don't understand statistics. That's not scummy.

[Amor]

This is the most useless post all game.

Sir, may I direct you to the post history of one Mr. Special?

[Honest Abel]

@Amor: I just realized I was doing the statistics wrong, but not for the reasons you pointed out. Real stats of three scum vs. two scum w/o SK: 3:1. But I guess we can talk in a thread about C9++ if we want to continue that conversation.

Even ignoring this particular set-ups, mini normals generally have 3 scum, so it would be completely normal for town to think that way automatically. When it comes to scumslips the question to ask is simply "Is it possible that this person would post this if they were town?" and here I think the answer is definitely "Yes", no matter your attempts to muddy the issue.

Attempts to muddy the issue? I believe it was either a town mistake or a scum slip, and I never said otherwise. What is unclear?

I've been debating about whether or not to hammer DCJ. On the one hand, his premature claim was extremely suspicious, and the rest of his play doesn't do much to mitigate that. But I'm also wary of lynching a claimed cop. If we're wrong about him being scum, then leaving him alive for a few more days will give us information we need, and if we're right then he'll get himself tangled up in fake results soon enough. What do you guys think?

That's a reasonable attitude, but if he's scum, how do you know he'll get tangled up in fake results soon enough? Imagine we lynch a townie today, and DCJ leads us to falsely lynch a townie tomorrow (we'd have to trust him to see if he's right, assuming he posts a guilty result). We'd then have to wait to lynch him the following day. So that's 1 townie lynched + 1 townie nightkilled + 1 townie lynched + 1 townie nightkilled + 1 townie nightkilled = 5 town killed before we can begin looking for the final scum, if there is one (odds are 3:1 there are three scum; knew that would come in handy). That would put us in a two-town-vs.-goon final day, right? Maybe that's actually the most logical thing to do.

UNVOTE: Darkcoffeejazz

Kcd, I don't see how DCJ already got fake results. Explain please?

[don_johnson]

unvote vote abel

Lynch abel. Dcj investigates amor? Better off with cop/fake cop in play for now.

[Kcdaspot]

Don.

No.

[Honest Abel]

While I obviously don't agree with the vote on me, what do you have against the plan, Kcd? Let this be a discussion. And tell me why DCJ has fake results.

[Honest Abel]

The only thing I can see right now that would make you against letting DCJ live is if he turns out to be scum, you might suffer a wounded ego for letting him lead you/us around.

[don_johnson]

Kcd, I don't see how DCJ already got fake results. Explain please?

this game is dying. are there any lurkers? kc, please answer this one so we can move forward. i am ok with the dcj wagon, but i don't see the harm in lynching our second scummiest and directing his investigation. if he's a fake cop, then there could be a real cop out there which gives us a counterclaim later and doubles our results(half of which would be fake, but still helpful). i guess there is a slim possibility of two cops? even still, then we get more results as well. he cleared me(which should have been obvious) so why not let him cough up another? amor's case on abel isn't terrible. i don't think either of those slots are obvtown. and i'm sure if we put in the effort we can find another worthy lynch today. let me know. i'm happy to put my vot back on dcj, but i don't see the harm in talking about options.