Newbie 1138 - Game Over! Town Win!

[whilst]

I could detail my thoughts on the cavjj/DC connection as well, but I'm pooped for tonight. If anyone wants to hear more, let me know.

Yeah, do that when you get the chance.

[Honest Abel]

If anyone other than whilst wants to hear more, let me know. whilst is obviously looking to distract attention from himself.

[Bricktoes]

i'm interested, but feel free to summarize.

[Honest Abel]

I summarized at the end of #1049.

[Bricktoes]

fair enough, i assumed there was more.

[DarkClaymore]

Out of annoyance.

That's a very poor reason. Asking a question and not giving a proper answer yourself? Wow. How protown of you. Were you even asking that seriously or just to appear like you are doing something protown?
And it's interesting to hear. What about me annoyed you enough to kill me as scum? Assuming of course, your answer wasn't just a joke.

fair enough

, i assumed there was more.

I also have a question.

If you were the rolecop, who would you have investigated on N1 and why?

If your answer is the IC, like in my case, then a follow up question:

You found out the IC is the Jailer. Is there any reason that would make you to

not

go after the IC on N2 and target someone else instead?

For me: nope. I'd definitely go after the IC now that I know he's a protective role.

I just thought the whole thing is kind of hanging in the air at the moment and most players didn't really take a well defined stance regarding the matter. So I'd like to have clear and definite answers regarding the matter.

If most of you give the same answer I gave, then, whatever Cav's claim was

full

BS or not, NS should have been targeted on N2 and not Abel. Thus, it should be awfully hard to believe Abel was really targeted and got saved.

[singersigner]

Vote Count 3.6

DarkClaymore (0):
Honest Abel (2): Nobody Special, DarkClaymore
whilst (1): Honest Abel
dicknose (0):
I Am Innocent (0):
Nobody Special (0):

Not Voting (3): whilst, dicknose, I Am Innocent

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Mod Notes:

Deadline for Day Three is September 4th, 2011 at 5pm PST.

[I Am Innocent]

D1 reread:

Post 8, cavjj says the person posting after him will receive his vote, which ends up being me.

Post 14, despite voting RVS for me in 15, he already expresses his willingness to vote HA. HA has already received 2 RVS votes. Would cavjj being will to put this much heat on his partner by post 14? +1 HA

Post 45, leaves my wagon of 1 and seems willing to join the largest wagon "I think I'll be voting for Honest Abel.". Note HA just received his 3rd vote the post before...so is he ready to take his partner to L-1? +1 HA

Post 54, does a vote count check, so he knows HA has 3 votes (next largest wagon is 1)

Post 55, puts HA at L-1. That would be extremely gutsy for a newbie scum to take a rolecop partner to L-1 on D1 with a bunch of other newbies around. +1 HA

Post 59, removes his L-1 vote 55 minutes after casting it.

Post 64, scumhunter makes an interesting observation "I feel like you knew you weren't actually going to be hammered on page 3 here and that you are just trying to fake keep your cool here. Why is that?" scum HA would have known that teammate cavjj was probably not going to leave that vote on for long, did scumhunter catch this? Interesting that scumhunter died N1 too.

Post 65, from HA, felt very cordial with cavjj. This felt very different than how he reacted with me D2. Something to note.

Post 68, wicked states cavjj as one of the 3 he sees as town at the moment (along with HA and BBmolla).

Post 69, dicknose suspects whilst and cavjj.

Post 88, after being called out for a no vote, he votes cavjj. at this point HA has 3 votes, and the only other vote is for whilst, who in post 69 was dicknose's other suspect. interesting he decided to cast a single vote for cavjj when he could have built up the wagon on whilst. distancing for the win? (for the record, cavjj had one post between 69 and 88 and it said "Alright all, just got back and promised a post, will be with you shortly")

Post 90 DC votes BBmolla to L-1, 50 minutes later cavjj hammers without a chance to claim.

D2 to come (probably in parts).

[Honest Abel]

fair enough, i assumed there was more.

There might end up being more if I take a closer look at it. But that's most of what I see with DC/cavjj.

DC, all you're talking about is possibilities and likelihoods. That's not enough to lynch someone on. You're basing a logical argument (which makes you appear smart) on an unsound premise (which means you're opportunistic and trying too hard).

[Honest Abel]

Get your notepad out. Here's how logic works:

1. Premise 1:
   If scum knew the jailkeeper, they would have killed him.
   
2. Premise 2:
   They didn't kill the jailkeeper.
   
3. Conclusion:
   They didn't know the jailkeeper.

[Honest Abel]

I would think this would be the popular argument:

1. Premise:
   cavjj claimed he was the cop and knew the jailkeeper.
   
2. Premise:
   cavjj is scum.
   
3. Inference:
   cavjj was lying about being the cop.
   
4. Conclusion:
   cavjj was lying about knowing the jailkeeper.

But DC's looks more like this:

1. Premise:
   cavjj claimed he was the cop and knew the jailkeeper.
   
2. Premise:
   cavjj is scum.
   
3. Inference:
   cavjj was lying about being the cop.
   
4. Inference:
   cavjj was telling the truth about knowing the jailkeeper.
   
5. Premise:
   If scum knew the jailkeeper, they would have killed the jailkeeper.
   
6. Premise:
   There is no doctor.
   
7. Premise:
   Scum didn't kill the jailkeeper.
   
8. Inference:
   Scum must have been blocked by the jailkeeper.
   
9. Premise:
   Abel was blocked by the jailkeeper.
   
10. Conclusion:
    : Abel is scum.

I doubt the soundness of IV and VI, and VIII is, by extension of VI, illogical.

[Honest Abel]

Another note on VI: if there's a doctor, who would he have protected? Probably the same person you would have killed, DC. The IC.

[DarkClaymore]

I would think this would be the popular argument:

1. Premise:
   cavjj claimed he was the cop and knew the jailkeeper.
   
2. Premise:
   cavjj is scum.
   
3. Inference:
   cavjj was lying about being the cop.
   
4. Conclusion:
   cavjj was lying about knowing the jailkeeper.

But DC's looks more like this:

1. Premise:
   cavjj claimed he was the cop and knew the jailkeeper.
   
2. Premise:
   cavjj is scum.
   
3. Inference:
   cavjj was lying about being the cop.
   
4. Inference:
   cavjj was telling the truth about knowing the jailkeeper.
   
5. Premise:
   If scum knew the jailkeeper, they would have killed the jailkeeper.
   
6. Premise:
   There is no doctor.
   
7. Premise:
   Scum didn't kill the jailkeeper.
   
8. Inference:
   Scum must have been blocked by the jailkeeper.
   
9. Premise:
   Abel was blocked by the jailkeeper.
   
10. Conclusion:
    : Abel is scum.

I doubt the soundness of IV and VI, and VIII is, by extension of VI, illogical.

I have no problem forgetting Cav's claim. Really. I'm using basic logic. Tell me, Abel. Wouldn't you investigate the IC on N1 if you were rolecop? Because I believe most players would (though I can change my mind if I see a variety of answers) and thus mafia should have known NS is the Jailer by N2. Is it so illogical to conclude NS were to be targeted on N2?

Now, you were blocked that night. Assuming NS is indeed the Jailer, there are only two logical options here I think:
1) Abel is scum and was blocked
2) There is a doc who protected the IC

I don't see any reason to favor the second conclusion over the first. The second assumes there's another protective role as well as that the target was the IC even though there were quite some other possible candidates. In short: the second option requires too much assumptions while the first is rather straightforward and simple.

[Honest Abel]

Going back on what I said earlier, thinking more about IAI/cavjj makes it seem more plausible that cavjj was instructed to do what he did by IAI. It definitely wasn't something cavjj would have done on his own. The sudden switch from DC to IAI is strange. Kind of looks like cavjj was instructed to go after IAI hard but cavjj needed to tie up loose ends with his DC suspicion first. I'm going to reread their ISOs for interaction.

Any thoughts from anyone on this would be appreciated.

[Honest Abel]

I have no problem forgetting Cav's claim. Really. I'm using basic logic. Tell me, Abel. Wouldn't you investigate the IC on N1 if you were rolecop? Because I believe most players would (though I can change my mind if I see a variety of answers) and thus mafia should have known NS is the Jailer by N2. Is it so illogical to conclude NS were to be targeted on N2?

Now, you were blocked that night. Assuming NS is indeed the Jailer, there are only two logical options here I think:
1) Abel is scum and was blocked
2) There is a doc who protected the IC

I don't see any reason to favor the second conclusion over the first. The second assumes there's another protective role as well as that the target was the IC even though there were quite some other possible candidates. In short: the second option requires too much assumptions while the first is rather straightforward and simple.

You're not using basic logic, you're working off of assumptions and making illogical inferences.

If I were rolecop, no, I wouldn't default to the IC. I would pick the best target given what happened in D1. Who would care about such an inactive IC as Wickedestjr was on D1?

You're also assuming that the mafia would definitely kill the jailkeeper on N2, which isn't 100% positive. I personally think the jailkeeper has the capacity to screw things up for town. Just look at this game.

Assuming NS is jailkeeper, which also is an assumption, not a fact, you're forgetting two other possibilities in your list:
3) Abel was targeted N2 and protected by jail
4) Scum chose not to kill anyone

Interesting thing about #4: IF scum did indeed know that a jailkeeper existed, as you insist, wouldn't choosing not to kill cast a lot of suspicion on the jailkeeper's target? That makes #4 kind of likely.

Really, your argument is FULL of holes and assumptions. Trying to use it to base a game-winning strategy on is laughable. It's hardly even worth discussing anymore.

[DarkClaymore]

If I were rolecop, no, I wouldn't default to the IC. I would pick the best target given what happened in D1. Who would care about such an inactive IC as Wickedestjr was on D1?

Then who would you have picked on N1?
And if I already have to, I'd say that PRs tend to lurk or being not as active quite often (as much as I think this is a bad strategy). So if anything, the IC being not too active would only motivate me more to investigate him.

You're also assuming that the mafia would definitely kill the jailkeeper on N2, which isn't 100% positive. I personally think the jailkeeper has the capacity to screw things up for town. Just look at this game.

Nothing is ever 100% in mafia. But okay. You say perhaps you wouldn't have targeted him, as strange as it is in my eyes. If there are others here who think the same, then I'll reconsider the whole thing. Because I'd definitely target the Jailer as I personally consider it the strongest PR out of the trio.

Interesting thing about #4: IF scum did indeed know that a jailkeeper existed, as you insist, wouldn't choosing not to kill cast a lot of suspicion on the jailkeeper's target? That makes #4 kind of likely.

No, #4 isn't all that likely. Because scum couldn't know who would be jailed. It could easily be

him

and then he is the one who'll be under great suspicion. I don't see much point betting like this. Especially since every player ended D2 as quite suspicious.

And I'll consider #3 only in case I hear others saying they might have not killed the Jailer for some reason. Otherwise, even #2 is much more likely then #3 IMO.

[Honest Abel]

Good point on 4, I thought that after I posted it.

If I were rolecop and knew whilst wasn't scum, I probably would have investigated whilst for seeming townish D1 but trying to get on everyone's good side. Seems like survival tactics.

The problem with your line of reasoning is that you're using assumptions and likelihood in place of factual premises. That's not how you make a deduction, sorry.

[Bricktoes]

This is the third fucking time I'm making this post.

You say perhaps you wouldn't have targeted him, as strange as it is in my eyes. If there are others here who think the same, then I'll reconsider the whole thing.
...
And I'll consider #3 only in case I hear others saying they might have not killed the Jailer for some reason. Otherwise, even #2 is much more likely then #3 IMO.

Did you not read the last page? Out of five people who've declared who they would have nk'd, you're the only one who chose the IC. At most, only one of them is lying. Way to tunnel.

In response to your question: I was honest about nk'ing you. I would then make the argument that scum was trying to make me look suspicious for having tunneled you.

[Bricktoes]

If I were the rolecop, N1 would have been Cav and N2 would have been NS.

[Bricktoes]

Er, jailkeeper.

[DarkClaymore]

This is the third fucking time I'm making this post.

You say perhaps you wouldn't have targeted him, as strange as it is in my eyes. If there are others here who think the same, then I'll reconsider the whole thing.
...
And I'll consider #3 only in case I hear others saying they might have not killed the Jailer for some reason. Otherwise, even #2 is much more likely then #3 IMO.

Did you not read the last page? Out of five people who've declared who they would have nk'd, you're the only one who chose the IC. At most, only one of them is lying. Way to tunnel.

In response to your question: I was honest about nk'ing you. I would then make the argument that scum was trying to make me look suspicious for having tunneled you.

I would have chosen the IC only assuming I know he is the Jailer. No one aside of me really gave an answer which takes this into account. Yet, I'd really hear how many here would have +80% killed the Jailer if they knew who it is. Because it's the only way I see to either prove or disprove that my assumptions are logical or not.

You still haven't said what about me annoyed you enough to go this far. There are surely quite big disadvantages to killing me as scum.

[Honest Abel]

If I were the rolecop, N1 would have been Cav and N2 would have been NS.

Er, jailkeeper.

SCUM SLIP! SCUM SLIP!

UNVOTE: whilst
VOTE: dicknose

[Honest Abel]

DC, now you're trying to "prove your assumptions are logical" based on opinion. Man, you know nothing about logic.

Also, why are you trying to prove that your assumptions are logical in the first place? Is it of any importance other than making you look smart? You're slipping into focus of your own scumminess/towniness. That is not something town do.

[Bricktoes]

Yet, I'd really hear how many here would have +80% killed the Jailer if they knew who it is. Because it's the only way I see to either prove or disprove that my assumptions are logical or not.

logic =/= true

Logic is a method of reasoning. It can be false.

Other than that, I'm not spending another day on you. VOTE: Darky. Anyone who wants to lose this sucker, join me.

[DarkClaymore]

DC, now you're trying to "prove your assumptions are logical" based on opinion. Man, you know nothing about logic.

I'm trying to prove it's logical based on whatever others agree it's logical. Because if it's only me who thinks it's logical, then it's obviously helping no one if I keep trying finding scum with this logic. I want to check how "general" that logic is. If I'm one of very few who think in this direction, then it'd mean I was wrong to apply this way of thinking on the mafia's action.

Yet, if many think like me then chances are high mafia thought the same thing. This would mean there is no reason to stop pursuing this theory.

Also, why are you trying to prove that your assumptions are logical in the first place? Is it of any importance other than making you look smart? You're slipping into focus of your own scumminess/towniness. That is not something town do.

Of course it's important. If it appears logical to many, then it means that it's very likely to be correct. And if it's correct, then we found our last scum. Isn't that important?

Yet, I'd really hear how many here would have +80% killed the Jailer if they knew who it is. Because it's the only way I see to either prove or disprove that my assumptions are logical or not.

logic =/= true

Logic is a method of reasoning. It can be false.

Other than that, I'm not spending another day on you. VOTE: Darky. Anyone who wants to lose this sucker, join me.

Two things:
1) Okay. Fine. You say that we aren't going to use logic and reasoning because it might be false. What we gonna use to find scum then?
2) Wow... voting someone right after being voted + not answering my question. Just great.