The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[gandalf5166]

Wrong. Even if he is lying, he's going to be behaving as if he weren't, which means there's no reason not to leave him alive.

Gandalf ... you aren't changing my mind on a Game-play theory point. Especially with your ever convincing arguements

His kills are going to reflect the role he's pretending to be. So why would we lynch him?

[Furcolow]

unvote;
vote: Kanye

this is really simple to me
Feysal obviously had scum on his wagon
He will complete his task by killing certain people, which I believe will pull him out of the game, or win for town

I have two potential win conditions. I can either win by surviving, or win by Feysal killing the people he needs to kill. I would have rather adopted a town win condition, as I was obviously being protown, but whatever.

Our goal now is to find who Feysal needs to be killing. Perhaps the Seraphs could help me out.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Our goal now is to find who Feysal needs to be killing. Perhaps the Seraphs could help me out.

Well given that Feysal admits most of his list is probably Town I expect you might get some help from AGM / Thor.

[Gut]

MoI, does anyone other than you and the seraphs have QT access right now?

[Andrius]

He said someone else did but he didn't want to name them.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Like he said earlier what reason does he have to lie?

What reason does he have not to? There is no way we can confirm his information...even if he does have contact with the Seraphs, it's hella easy to just feed us some verifiable truths and then lie through his teeth about other things. I'm taking it with a grain of salt, especially since the existence of the Seraphs have absolutely no relevance to me right now. I can't kill them, so I don't really care which ones are on which side. Talking about Seraph alignment is just a really good way to avoid talking about something that truly matters, like which of the people we can actually lynch might be scum.

To conclude, I don't know if MoI is scum or not, but I'm certainly not going to sheep to whatever he's saying like it's the gospel.

[Andrius]

Like he said earlier what reason does he have to lie?

What reason does he have not to? There is no way we can confirm his information...even if he does have contact with the Seraphs, it's hella easy to just feed us some verifiable truths and then lie through his teeth about other things. I'm taking it with a grain of salt, especially since the existence of the Seraphs have absolutely no relevance to me right now. I can't kill them, so I don't really care which ones are on which side. Talking about Seraph alignment is just a really good way to avoid talking about something that truly matters, like which of the people we can actually lynch might be scum.

To conclude, I don't know if MoI is scum or not, but I'm certainly not going to sheep to whatever he's saying like it's the gospel.

If he was lying the other person in the seraph QT could CC him and ---> DEADZILLAAAAAA
But no.
I think we're good for now.

And luckily for YOU, we're a bloc not a follow-magnaocracy. (Though there might be those who would debate the latter being better.)

[Plum]

VOTE COUNT #2.2

Furcolow - 1 - Espeonage
Feysal -

4

- Mastermind of Sin, Dekes, Empking, Andrius
VitaminR - 2 - Herodotus, Gut
Dekes - 2 - MagnaofIllusion, SpyreX
kanyeknowsbest - 2 - Wraith, Furcolow

Not Voting (9): Magister Ludi, Sun and Moon, Ellibereth, mockingjaye, Feysal, kanyeknowsbest, VitaminR, Will-o-wisp, gandalf5166

With 18 alive it will take 9 votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 will be on October 13th; exact time will be determined soon but basically when I feel like it.

Currently searching for a replacement for Magister Ludi.

Prods will be attended to tomorrow!

[gandalf5166]

VOTE: kanye

[Herodotus]

According to data on past games, Serial Killers improve town win rates. Feysal is at worst a SK, and more likely is what he claims.
As long as Feysal will be killing scummy players, he's a bigger threat to groupscum than he is to town. Let them be the ones to worry about him. The town can use our lynches on the scum instead of spending two of them chainlynching Feysal and Furcolow.

But also, let's not neglect scumhunting while we consider that.

@Everyone: The only people Mastermind of Sin has supported lynching are Feysal and Furcolow, and his support on Furcolow was low.
@Mas: Is that correct? Do you think either of them is groupscum? Are there any people you believe to be groupscum?

@Everyone: VitaminR appears to want to lynch Feysal but isn't voting. Do you think he is waiting for support from others? Also, whom does he think is scum? Can anyone tell from his posts? Do you get the feeling that he doesn't want to argue for any scum lynches or find scum?

[Empking]

Unvote
Vote: S&M[/]

[SpyreX]

This princess just had a little princess of her own - so I'll be a bit out of commission for a few.

[Empking]

Unvote
Vote: S&M

[VitaminR]

You're concerned with their (there's two of them) overall ability to read you, but not their reasons for thinking you're scum?
I'm not sure that that is a scumtell or a towntell, but it's odd.

(I expect it's the type of oddity that passes for a scumtell in the MS community. I'm not sure whether it is one, but if it gets scum lynched...)

Oh this is interesting. Last game I said that to CES (Open 318 - in which we were both town), my most prominent attacker made EXACTLY that comment and he was scum. Not trying to spin this into a scumtell, but odd does not equal scummy and it worries me that you don't appear to be able to look at my behaviour without bias when you have only been suspecting me for a few pages.

Though for them I seem to be easier to read when I'm scum.

I'm not sure, but I think that technically speaking, readability has to be independent of alignment, almost by definition.

What I meant was that I think I'm pretty obvious to some people when I'm scum. I'm almost never obviously town to the same people (i.e. they never trust me).

He probably has a list of role names, so he doesn't know which players are "on his list", meaning any kill is equally good if it helps him survive, unless people start claiming role names.

Fair enough. I guess I'm just paranoid he might be hiding parts of his role.

[VitaminR]

Vote: Dekes

, btw. Could also go for a Herodotus wagon.

Btw, CES, tell chamber that I understand his suspicion of me, though it makes me sad, because I feel that he has a better impression of my townplay than warranted (I feel his suspicion of me here and in the Invitational is in part based on weak votes of mine - his impression that I don't do this face-to-face so much is correct, but my forum play is different since you're forced to vote quicker and it still takes me a while to develop decent suspicions). I'm usually a bit overwhelmed by large games, and I try to compensate for this by being too confident about weak suspicions. Also, tell him I swear that I'm not doing the hand-wavey thing.

[gandalf5166]

This princess just had a little princess of her own - so I'll be a bit out of commission for a few.

Congratulations!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Congrats Spyrex!

Little princesses enrich your life … trust me on this.

--

MoI, does anyone other than you and the seraphs have QT access right now?

I’m putting this up front so everyone who didn’t catch my multiple statements can do so.

At least 1 player other than me has access to the QT. Mina / Faraday requested they remain anonymous so that AGM / Thor would have to waste a move to discover said identity.

--

I bet this is happening right now:
Thor is MIA

How did you draw this particular conclusion?

--

(I expect it's the type of oddity that passes for a scumtell in the MS community. I'm not sure whether it is one, but if it gets scum lynched...)

This makes my scum-dar ding and I can’t quite put my finger on why.

@Manga: Are you guaranteed that the people posting in the QT are who they say they are? I know this is paranoid to ask, but can you confirm that it isn't possible that faraday/mina are faking AGM's posts?

All three are posting from Registered accounts (which Quicktopic differentiates from unregistered accounts with a star next to the account name). Furthermore AGM’s account is consistent with the registered account he uses in other QTs, including those he created himself.

So the only way it is being ‘forged’ is if Mina and / or Faraday have access to AGM’s registered QT account.

Regarding gandalf, it's not clear whether the seraphs have the ability to restore a character's memory... if they don't, then surely they wouldn't assume gandalf is lying, as there would have to be some such mechanism, and if they do, it seems like that would have been an early priority.

The question that Minaday seems to have so far is not related to their ability to restore but whether Gandalf’s claim was faked in the first place and he had his role all along.

@Magna: you want guaranteed scum?
Then vote for VitaminR.

You have a Cop guilty on him? If not then your case on him hasn’t compelled me so far. Could you restate it so that I can review it?

According to data on past games, Serial Killers improve town win rates. Feysal is at worst a SK, and more likely is what he claims.

Can you back up this statement with a link to said data?

--

What reason does he have not to? There is no way we can confirm his information...even if he does have contact with the Seraphs, it's hella easy to just feed us some verifiable truths and then lie through his teeth about other things. I'm taking it with a grain of salt, especially since the existence of the Seraphs have absolutely no relevance to me right now. I can't kill them, so I don't really care which ones are on which side. Talking about Seraph alignment is just a really good way to avoid talking about something that truly matters, like which of the people we can actually lynch might be scum.

Again … what reason do I have to make up anything. If I did either Seraph could easily invite someone else into the QT who could directly refute my statements. This is once again either stupid or scummy paranoia.

Are you scum again MoS? I know I don't think you are stupid.

Also – I don’t see much from you in the way of scum-reads. Why don’t you give us three or four suspects with reasoning for each.

[Herodotus]

@VitaminR:
I've suspected you since page 15, though I don't see the relevance of that.
And I wasn't using the point to evaluate your alignment - I have done and will do that separately - but to convince others to join the wagon on you.

Vote: Dekes

, btw. Could also go for a Herodotus wagon.

Why Dekes? And, I'm sure you could .

Regarding gandalf, it's not clear whether the seraphs have the ability to restore a character's memory... if they don't, then surely they wouldn't assume gandalf is lying, as there would have to be some such mechanism, and if they do, it seems like that would have been an early priority.

The question that Minaday seems to have so far is not related to their ability to restore but whether Gandalf’s claim was faked in the first place and he had his role all along.

What are your own thoughts on that?

According to data on past games, Serial Killers improve town win rates. Feysal is at worst a SK, and more likely is what he claims.

Can you back up this statement with a link to said data?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p2646790
The most significant comparisons are 3:9 to 3:1:8 and 2:10 to 2:1:9. (Town roles were not necessarily constant.)
It's for Mini Normals, but there's no reason to think it won't help. But on the other hand, those comparisons are equivalent to the difference between lynching an SK and lynching a townie with no information gain. But if we do lynch a townie today, we will gain information. Also, as I said before, we have better things to do than lynch someone that the mafia will want to deal with themselves. Finally, based on their claims, if Feysal dies, Furcolow becomes a liability to the town over time if we don't immediately start lynching scum. Wasting two lynches/vigshots on them would hand the game to the mafia.

[VitaminR]

@VitaminR:
I've suspected you since page 15, though I don't see the relevance of that.
And I wasn't using the point to evaluate your alignment - I have done and will do that separately - but to convince others to join the wagon on you.

What I meant was that you haven't been suspecting me for long. I guess I'm just surprised at how you're picking at the things you say like everything I say is scummy. It seems opportunistic and doesn't really give me the feeling that you're continuously re-evaluating how valid your read is (which you should be doing if you're town, especially because you're wrong). You called me "guaranteed scum," which is just patently ridiculous, just on the basis of how little I've posted (something I always do in large games, btw, before you try to spin that into a scumtell) and how little you know of my playstyle.

Actually, here's a question for you. Are you usually this confident about reads that are wrong? This is a serious question, though it may sound condescending. Could you show me a game in which you were town and latched on to someone in a similar way even though you were wrong?

Why Dekes? And, I'm sure you could .

MoI made a valid point about him and his response (which I was waiting to see) wasn't very convincing.

[Ellibereth]

AND THE WEEKDAYS ARE HERE.

Temp
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... 0&sr=posts

Vote: Willowisp

Random arbitrary choice Moi.
Just isoed the name i didn't recognize.

I'll be skimming through now.
especially past the Feysal stuff. I don't really care whether we leash or not as long as he dies soooonish in some way.

[VitaminR]

What I meant was that you haven't been suspecting me for long. I guess I'm just surprised at how you're picking at the things

I

say like everything I say is scummy.

Corrected so it makes sense.

[Plum]

ooba replaces Magister Ludi, effective immediately.

[Mastermind of Sin]

@Mas: Is that correct? Do you think either of them is groupscum? Are there any people you believe to be groupscum?

I'm assuming that this is a typo and that you meant to direct these questions to me.

I'm honestly not sure what to think of their claims just yet. Claiming third party doesn't really make someone actually third party, there are plenty of gambits out there. However, claiming third party as town is retardedly bad, as evidenced by the recently concluded Mafiascum Fantasy Camp game (thanks, GreyICE). Most people have the common sense to avoid something that idiotic, so I'm left to conclude that they are either third party or scum. Given that conclusion and the fact that Feysal has a killing role, I'm more than content to see him hang.

No, I haven't seen any other tells jump out at me so far. Otherwise I would have mentioned it, obviously.

[Herodotus]

@VitaminR:
I've suspected you since page 15, though I don't see the relevance of that.
And I wasn't using the point to evaluate your alignment - I have done and will do that separately - but to convince others to join the wagon on you.

What I meant was that you haven't been suspecting me for long. I guess I'm just surprised at how you're picking at the things I say like everything I say is scummy. It seems opportunistic and doesn't really give me the feeling that you're continuously re-evaluating how valid your read is (which you should be doing if you're town, especially because you're wrong). You called me "guaranteed scum," which is just patently ridiculous, just on the basis of how little I've posted (something I always do in large games, btw, before you try to spin that into a scumtell) and how little you know of my playstyle.

Actually, here's a question for you. Are you usually this confident about reads that are wrong? This is a serious question, though it may sound condescending. Could you show me a game in which you were town and latched on to someone in a similar way even though you were wrong?

I haven't said that everything you say is scummy. Most of your posts don't give me any indication of your alignment and I haven't mentioned them. Please explain why you would claim this.

Where did I call you guaranteed scum

on the basis of how little you've posted

? You're putting words into my posts. I did comment on your lack of expressed reads, but that was after I voted you or used the phrase "guaranteed scum", and that's different from a lurking accusation. Sun and Moon is the only player I have considered for a lurkerlynch.

I'm not concerned about any condescension in your first question, but it's a misleading question because it asks me to assume I'm wrong. On the second question, I feel like you're trying to undermine my argument by attacking my scumhunting record. When I replace into games, I typically have accurate reads, so yes, I'm confident. Sometimes I develop inaccurate reads, but I'm open to changing them if there is a reason.

On what basis would I have reevaluated my read on you? Something pro-town that you have done? Continuous re-evaluation doesn't mean changing your mind and deciding someone is town just because they want you to.

[Herodotus]

No typo, Mastermind of Sin, I just left off some letters.

Finding a third party and having no suspects beyond that isn't a way to win as town. Suppose Feysal is the lynch; what next?