Mini 1243: Magician Mafia (Game Over)

[saulres]

The only "lie" I see is 4nxi3ty's #4. I'm not convinced on any of the others (but I haven't researched them yet). #5, though, is not how 4nxi3ty presents it. VP thinking GNR was clueless town early D1 was posted in this thread, and so is not indicative of vp and juls "talking about gnr early d1"

This is VP:

I get a clueless town vibe from Riggs honestly. Seems like a distraction more than anything.

[4nxi3ty]

#5:

Here is the order of things

from our QT:

Early D1 - both juls and VP are present. VP initially thinks GNR is bumbling idiot town, Juls thinks he's scummy.
Late D1 - VP is persuaded by the arguments Juls makes against GNR and agrees with her he is scummy. Juls has a change of heart and begins to think he's town. VP leaves to drive 3000 miles, juls takes over the hydra alone.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote Count 4.3

Crab Canon (L-1) - 4nxi3ty, saulres, Junpei
4nxi3ty (L-3) - Amrun
Amrun (L-3) - Crab Canon

Not Voting (2) - SnakePlissken, Luxury

Deadline: Wednesday November 2 @ 11:00 AM Eastern
Countdown: (expired on 2011-11-02 11:00:00)

[Crab Canon]

@Salures - if my memory of the timeline is slightly blurry, please forgive it because there was a ton going on at that time. It may have been N1 (which is still a part of the day 1 phase) that she backed off because of the SR flip. I was simply going from memory in that post I made. The point is that VP was the one who made the GNR vote on D2, Juls is the one who backed it off because she didn't feel as strongly. I'm sure I can go back and get a detailed timeline of every single post, but that seems quite unnecessary.

The case anxiety is making is not even clear. What is our scum motivation in all of this? His original point was that I was not pushing GNR or did not have a significant part in his lynch. My argument is that, yes we did. Look at the wall post I made and tell me if I wasn't clear. Don't get caught up in this he said/she said malarky. It's not real scumhunting and is obfuscating the issue.

I would ask to not be at L-1, lest a scum come in with a shitty reason to quick hammer. This game is already in a bad enough state, and lynching a VT over poor timeline reasoning is only going to make things worse.

[Junpei]

unvote

[Crab Canon]

Okay, wow. Uh, I don't know what to say, these are contradictory statements regarding the thought process of the hydra.

I guess the reason I'm so surprised is that Juls and VP are considered good players, and these are huge slips.

vote CC

This is L-1, so everyone now is aware of that.

It's not a slip of anything. Please explain to me what is happening that shows any kind of scum motivation here? Do you believe we didn't play a part in the GNR lynch?

[Junpei]

Okay, just remembered it could be MYLO and Crab Canon's post promises more explanation.

A few things:

1) Scum slips have no motivation, the idea is that you aren't really scumhunting, just faking it, and thus forgot.

2) Why do you have hydra dissonance at all when you promised having none? You guys also dont' always sign posts when you talk in 1st person, 3rd person, and it is very confusing.

3) Detailed timeline that you think will clear your name of this contradiction? Do it. This is why I unvoted.

pedit: I do believe you did, and I think that using that as a town tell is wifom, busses happen and what not.

[saulres]

Scum slips have no motivation, the idea is that you aren't really scumhunting, just faking it, and thus forgot.

Yes, this is how I caught 2 out of 3 scum in the only game I've won. That's why I was so anxious to jump on it again.

But, we have 11 days, and I'm not sure who to send the tiger after yet. I don't think we're at MyLo but I want to finish my own review of the game before a lynch, and I'm still way back on Day 1, having just completed the sotty vs. CC fight.

I also want to see more from Luxury and Snake. They're so quiet it's frustrating.

Must... not... rush... votes...

Unvote

[Crab Canon]

@ Junpei - scumslips are exceedingly rare. I think if you're talking about fake scumhunting, there would be a lack of our vote explanations in thread. Those are present in my wall post. It was hardly fake and definitely not opportunistic. That's my point

2) We've tried to have almost none. Part of the problem is that I was gone for many days. Juls was unable to discuss her reads with me, nor mine with her. I think you guys need to give a little understanding to the extraneous circumstances here. We honestly have tried not to have any huge disagreements in thread, but it's difficult to keep everything perfectly uniform when one person or the other is not present. The game has to continue and the person who is present has to keep posting, whether s/he has time to discuss it with the other hydra head or not.

3) Alright. I will try to get you the timeline as I get a chance. I have a lot of work at the moment (I've already spent too much time on MS today), but I will lay it out with paraphrases from our QT and timestamps so you can better understand how it went down.

@saulres - I've been thinking about your vigging. I'm not 100 % sure you guys should vig tonight. We should crunch the numbers on it because it may have the potential to give the game to the scum if you miss.

[Crab Canon]

addendum to #2 - that being said, I do think we've been clear about our positions without having contradictions. Like I said, Anxiety is obfuscating his entire point. I don't know if he's just this bad at mafia or he's trying to distract from himself after he had his hissy fit. I lean toward the former given his wagon was counter to GNR, but his stupidity here is grating on my nerves.

[saulres]

I'm not 100 % sure you guys should vig tonight.

We don't have a choice. We have to.

Believe me, it's on my mind too. That's another reason I'm doing the full-thread read-through, and a large part of why I won't be posting all my thoughts.

And there's always the other issue which is, based on last night, we don't have full control over the tiger. And Junpei could be scum-controlling it too. People have said they don't want us doing setup speculation on the tiger works but I feel I have to do it, so we don't mis-vig. I'm thinking about it and turning over possible mechanics in my head a

lot

.

[4nxi3ty]

scummy evidence #6:

I think you guys need to give a little understanding to the extraneous circumstances here.

I don't know if he's just this bad at mafia or he's trying to distract from himself after he had his hissy fit. but his stupidity here is grating on my nerves.

AtE after being caught instead of pointing where i am wrong and moving on to scumhunt.

[VP Baltar]

I've pointed where you're wrong several times. You continue to derp about it. I'm not gonna waste my breath if you're being illogical. But please continue to post as you like. I'm not concerned.

@ saul - what concerns me is that you're claiming the kill was sent to Vi last night inadvertently. We don't know what happened and if the scum have the ability to send your kill where they please again tonight, that's gonna be game over most likely for the town. Why do you "have to" vig?

[Crab Canon]

I've pointed where you're wrong several times. You continue to derp about it. I'm not gonna waste my breath if you're being illogical. But please continue to post as you like. I'm not concerned.

@ saul - what concerns me is that you're claiming the kill was sent to Vi last night inadvertently. We don't know what happened and if the scum have the ability to send your kill where they please again tonight, that's gonna be game over most likely for the town. Why do you "have to" vig?

wrong account. sorry.

[Junpei]

Saulres, one thing that we could do is try to make it such that what happens like what happened Night 2 occurs, that is to say that our vig shot does not go through. Of course we'd have to understand the tiger mechanic. The fact that Vi died instead of Amrun or Anxiety makes me confused. But right now this is my best idea for not killing and is also the safest, since we don't know each others' alignments.

You target me, I target you.

We have supposedly seen the following:

Same target, kill
Different target, no kill
Different target, kill third person

So, our best shot at no kill is to target different people, and if you are scum, then you won't target yourself so that I kill you, you have no choice but to comply and shoot at me.

There may, however, be a piece of the puzzle which we have not deciphered yet. Furthermore I am considering the possibility that when we targeted different people n2, we actually hit Vi, not scum. If this is the case then I'm not sure how we can possibly stop the vig shot from going off.

Okay, I just did a complete circle, basically I'm concluding that there's no way we can know that we can stop the vig shot, so we should plan to lynch a scummy candidate, I think.

pedit: We're compulsive, if you'll recall. Also if I assume that Saulres is scum and is lying about everything, then I cannot theorize at all, besides, even implying truth I've come to the conclusion which basically says agree to shoot scummy player X.

[saulres]

It's a Compulsive ability.

If

the scum moved it, that doesn't mean it's game over yet. They may need to know who we send it after to redirect, which is why I don't want to discuss potential targets in the thread again.

Another possibility I consider is that we don't know it but we only have odd/even days on it. That would be consistent with scum-Junpei hitting Sotty on N1, Fishy blocking me on N2, and scum-Junpei hitting Vi on N3. That would mean it's my turn tonight -- yet another reason I'm not going to discuss my target choices in the thread.

[Junpei]

Saulres, that explanation would be bastard though, wouldn't it? I mean, hiding a core mechanic of the role like that from the player?

[Junpei]

OH wait, crap, I forgot you claimed RB.

So then if you're telling the truth it likely goes

Same person: kill
Different person: kill 3rd party
One person is RB'd: no kill

So we could probably not discuss our kills in thread and still get a shot off, it's just less reliable. This explanation also doesn't require there to be a scum redirector. I don't know, this seems most likely, I mean wouldn't a driver basically switch actions on two people? So how would that align us onto Vi? Even if you're lying, and voted Vi, doesn't a redirector have to know where I'm going, which you didn't seem to know?

[saulres]

Different target, no kill
Different target, kill third person
So, our best shot at no kill is to target different people,

That's now how I read it. I read it as "any action which is applied to 1/2 of the vig team's vig action affects the whole team".

N2, I was blocked, therefore no matter what you did, the tiger was blocked.

If scum had a redirect last night, they applied it to one of our hits and so it overrode our individual choices.

I don't think we know for sure what happens if we target different people, so I suggest if you're town you also don't talk about who you might hit. Just go for someone you think is scum.

pEdit: I don't know. I think not knowing how it works, or splitting it between town and scum, is no different than applying even/odd. Someone with more experience might know if it's "bastard" or not.

pEdit2: The redirector could have hit either Amrun or 4nxi3ty in my theory.

I would hope that a redirector would be a one-shot. Otherwise, if we have to agree on the kill for it to work, and if we don't it hits a townie, I don't see how we'd ever be expected to make a successful hit on scum.

[saulres]

I forgot you claimed RB.

I didn't claim RB. Fishy did.

I blocked saulres last night

[4nxi3ty]

scummy evidence #7:

I clearly laid out the most logical explanation for why GNR needed to die more than anyone else, I articulated the clearest case against him.

no, it fucking had not shifted. everything shifted after my case and vote. you can post whatever snippets you like. look at the reactions after my vote.

No matter what you say here, you cannot refute I had the biggest case on him apart from Vi and my vote lead to the domino effect that resulted in his lynch. You can argue semantics about it all day, not gonna change those facts.

Honestly, I don't even get what you're trying to argue. my case was perfectly clear on GNR. you're acting like it wasn't. Reads can waver, but I couldn't have been more clear from my lynching vote about my feelings on everyone in the game and why GNR was the best choice.

Please explain to me what is happening that shows any kind of scum motivation here? Do you believe we didn't play a part in the GNR lynch?

i never said his case was wrong or unclear, i only showed that it was scummy because he chose to push gnr's lynch after luxury, vi, and ace had already said they would rather lynch gnr than me.

All of this was made clear throughout the thread, but I understand you're slow and probably can't keep up with the timeline. I hope this clarifies your "lies" for you, so you can stop making idiotic accusations that make zero sense. kthx

p.edit - I really got to stop playing with noobs. I'm sorry, I like you guys, but you're not making any effort to actually follow this game and it's quite irritating.

@Salures - if my memory of the timeline is slightly blurry, please forgive it because there was a ton going on at that time.

and lynching a VT over poor timeline reasoning is only going to make things worse.

-saying i can't keep up with the timeline and than wanting forgiveness for his own blurry vision of the timeline

[Junpei]

Yeah, this speculation is pretty ridiculous to me, lets keep it to ourselves again unless we have a break through, and I'll keep my choice on who to vig when the time comes a secret.

Saulres; I meant RB as in roleblocked.

[Crab Canon]

Blah, right, compulsion. Well I think you guys should try to target different people without talking about it in thread then.

@Anxiety - no, you're not keeping up with the timeline or even your own argument. The timeline is entirely unrelated to the argument you made, but you wouldn't know that. Secondly, the minor error I made in the time line was the difference between "late D1" and "first thing N1." You're deliberately trying to make it about that now, as if that is a real issue here.

[4nxi3ty]

scummy evidence #8:

refusing to provide specific examples and continually trying to discredit me by implying that i am dumb

confirm vote: cc

[saulres]

refusing to provide specific examples

Specific examples of what?