Mafia 48: Himalayan Mafia - Game over!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Or we could just lynch cpescum? That would work too.

[Twomz]

I'd prefer if we checked all our options first. I'm pretty certain CPE is the last scum right now, but I might be wrong and he might just "be in the wrong place at the wrong time."

It's very important that we don't just assume someone is scum and let the others go off scot free. We need to look at all the candidates (although, this probably won't happen today... so I guess lynching CPE now, then either winning or figuring it out tomorrow, is our only real option.

Lets go over the votes for right now (from the last vote count + CPE's vote change)


creampuffeater- 3 (Twomz, Lloyd, Cogito Ergo Sum)
Cogito Ergo Sum- 1 (MrBuddyLee)
Lloyd- 3 (Yosarian2, Fritzler, creampuffeater)


CPE switches wagons to put Lloyd at 3, what would appear to be a bid to save himself. But, since CPE was the first to get to 3, then as long as no one on his wagon unvotes, he'll be lynched first (also, if MBL switches to Lloyd, he'll be lynched instead)

The thing that worries me most is that the two most confirmed players are on Lloyds wagon, and the 3 on CPE are myself, and the 2 other top candidates. I suppose there might be some vote changing later today and tomorrow, so we'll just have to wait and see eh?

[Lloyd]

There's CPE, now, if someone could do CES/broomhead and someone else could do Lloyd, then we'd be wired to win!

Since we have 3 lynches left:

If most of you are convinced that one of the remaining scums are among CPE, CES, and I...

Then, why not just lynch all 3 of us (whichever order) for the remainder of this game?

[MrBuddyLee]

If most of you are convinced that one of the remaining scums are among CPE, CES, and I...

Then, why not just lynch all 3 of us (whichever order) for the remainder of this game?

I'm not convinced, though I think it's more than likely the scum's one of those three. Yos has played well and game events have made Fritz look innocent to me. Twomz, less so, Lloyd also less so. creampuff it's tough to say--his contributions have been minimal but his voting record has been better than most. Based on my observations thus far, I'd say it's most likely the final scum is broomhead/CES.

[Lloyd]

Unvote

Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum

If you want to see me lynched, don't do anything.

Otherwise, vote for CES. We might as well put some pressure on him while we can risk to mislynch today and tomorrow.

Right now...I see this game ending with the CPE, CES, and I (whichever order) being lynched, regardless of the result.

[Norinel]

About 48 hours to deadline.

Vote Count:

Lloyd- 3 (Yosarian2, Fritzler, creampuffeater)
creampuffeater- 2 (Twomz, Cogito Ergo Sum)
Cogito Ergo Sum- 2 (MrBuddyLee, Lloyd)

Not voting (0): No one

4 to lynch, 3 at deadline.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Okay, MBL, assuming I'm scum, can you concretely state how I would benefit from killing Fuldu? Framing him would seem unnecessary, I mean, he's doing a fine job of framing himself. Would lynching creampuffeater, Lloyd and Fuldu not seem the easiest way to a win? Please answer this question taking into account that I was not seen as particularly suspicious at the time of the Fuldukill.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Framing him = creampuffeater

[MrBuddyLee]

Okay, MBL, assuming I'm scum, can you concretely state how I would benefit from killing Fuldu? Framing him(creampuff) would seem unnecessary, I mean, he's doing a fine job of framing himself.

I do think creampuff was a significantly likely lynch if lordy hadn't replaced JS and gotten weird. But it was far from a done deal, as evidenced by:

* The previous day's suspicions were somewhat even over three main suspects.
* People were willing to ditch the creampuffwagon the next day to go after lordy.
* People are currently voting to lynch someone other than creampuff.

The theory that makes the most sense about the Fuldu nightkill is that it made creampuff a more likely lynch. If you're scum, that would be the concrete benefit considering a few people were taking a serious look at you.

Would lynching creampuffeater, Lloyd and Fuldu not seem the easiest way to a win? Please answer this question taking into account that I was not seen as particularly suspicious at the time of the Fuldukill.

That's not entirely accurate. Yos, Twomz and I indicated concerns about broomhead, who you've replaced. Three people indicated a willingness to follow Fuldu the next day in going after creampuff. No one at that point had expressed significant suspicions of Fuldu, and only broomhead had voted Lloyd. So no, I don't see that pushing lynches of cpe, lloyd and Fuldu would have been a winning scum strategy.

[Norinel]

24 hours to deadline (Minus a few minutes), no vote changes. Lloyd will be lynched at deadline if nothing changes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I will point out that:

1. If Fuldu, a vocal opponent of creampuffeater, had lived, creampuffeater would have very highs odds of being one of the four final lynches.
2. If this had occured and cpe had come up as town, Fuldu would be seen in a very bad light, considering his push on cpe right before the deadline when Flay was lynched, despite having expressed suspicion of Flay previously.
3. Scum still had to survive 4 lynches at the time of the Fuldukill. Making creampuffeater look bad is not something I'd see as a priority taking that into account.

I may have misjudged the amount of suspicion me(broomhead) was under due to me replacing.

[Yosarian2]

There's CPE, now, if someone could do CES/broomhead and someone else could do Lloyd, then we'd be wired to win!

Well, I won't do a full PBPA of Lloyd, but I'll do a summery of his posts.


First, he replaced Thoth. Thoth only made 1 post, but it seems somewhat suspicious to me, as it looks like an attempt to defend DG without really defending her

Which player was recruited is really difficult to guess. Even if the mafia decided to take the best player available opinions could vary between several. The only thing that is somewhat likely is that it's unlikely they recruited a new/inexperienced player as he has the chance to out multiple scum by bad play.

The DG wagon is going a bit fast. Not that surprising as DG's post seemed suspicious and little else happened.

I'll try a different approach though:
vote:Random Acts
Voting for players not in the game always seems rather suspicious to me.

(Bah...I just got interupted, and don't have time to finish this now...will finish this Lloyd analysis later.)

[Yosarian2]

-On the day we lynched Dripping Goofball, Lloyd was pushing the LML bandwagon very hard, who was very nearly lynched instead of her. It's interesting to note that in the process, he defended Dripping Goofball.

The relevent part of the post:

[quote="Lloyd]-4) After tidus confessed...You continue to waver between MoS and DG in your accusations, without considering timing of their votes for tidus

- You neglected to point out that MoS casted vote #2 for tidus in post 178, and DG casted vote #4 for tidus in post 180.

- When they casted their votes (#2 and #4) for tidus, MoS was leading with 6 votes.

* Unless either MoS, DG, or both are scum, and wanted to sacrifice tidus...

a) If MoS is scum, it seems unlikely that he would direct attention away from himself, and onto another scum (tidus) on Day 1 when it may implicate him (via HezLucky's theory earlier in post 129)

b) If DG is scum, it seems unlikely that she would pass on an existing wagon of MoS, onto another scum (tidus) on Day 1

c) If MoS and DG are both scums, it seems unlikely that they would direct attention onto another scum (tidus) on Day 1 when it may implicate MoS (via HezLucky's theory earlier in post 129)
[/quote]

He also defended MOS in the process, which would be a point in his favor, except that as MOS had absolutly no chance of getting lynched that day anyway.

Later on in the day, he changed his stance on DG, but in an interesting way.

I still think Lee is the play today, for reasons that I mentioned earlier. Plus, his recent bet on DG seems bold for a townie.

I await Lee's response to post 479.

In the meantime, I thought about what Lee could have meant by "mafia life".

a) If Lee meant mafiascum.net life, then I don't think it's a promise that he could keep

b) If Lee meant life in this game as a townie, then he is doing our town a disservice to trade his life on sole basis of what DG wrote in post 9 of this game

c) If Lee meant life in this game as a mafia, then he made a slip up

Until then...

- If Lee is town, then I think he's doing our town a disservice to trade his life in this game like that.

- If Lee is scum, then he could make such a bet without worries. In addition, if Lee is scum and views DG's Day 1 post as a slip up...By implicating her, Lee could try to ride this game until the end.

As Mr. Flay said in post 385, Lee tends to be careful as scum. Between Lee and DG, I'd rather leave DG around for another day because she posts more (thus more chances of possibly slipping up).

- As for DG, her timing of her recent unvote on Lee (to drop him to 3 votes) seems scummy to me. If DG is scum, then she might tip us off on who the third man might be.

I would like a Lee lynch today, and a DG lynch tomorrow.

I think that either Lee or DG (and possibly both) are scum. If neither Lee nor DG turns up scum, then I am confused as to who the scums might be.

He continued to attack Lee. He started to act suspicious of DG, but primarally as a link to Lee; he was still pushing for a Lee lynch, and if Lee was lynched and turned out to be townie, he seems to have been leaving himself room to not go after DG the next day.

This series of attacks on Fritzer also seems suspicious to me., especally as this was after Fritzer helped lynched DG and thus looked rather innocent to me.

Vote: Fritzler

No reason given, which seems unusual for him.

[quote="Lloyd]broomhead,

It's funny that you now have an opinion about voting, considering that you didn't have much of an opinion the past several days.

Anyhow, Fritzler's the lynch for today. Are you purposely not voting for Fritzler? [/quote]

Still no reason given.

Fritzler plays mafia games to kill people (bandwagon'ing, day kills, night kills, etc.).

If there's scum who would vote for his / her fellow scums, it would be Fritzler doing the voting.

In a vanilla townie game without cops, helping lynch a fellow scum may re-direct suspicions away him / herself.

Finally a sort of reason, but the only reason he's giving now is that he would expect scum Fritzer to help lynch a fellow scum. That's fine, but do you really think that Fritzer lynching a scum is actually a scum tell from Fritzer?

My vote on Fritzler stays.

But after all that, this is what he said today.

GG
Fritzler

BG
lordy
creampuffeater

No Read
Twomz
Yosarian2
Dead Rikimaru
MrBuddyLee
Cogito Ergo Sum

Which seems very odd to me. Yes, between the attacks on Fritzer and the time when he was the only one who Lloyd trusted, Fritzer did help the Flay wagon, but he's hardly the only one who did. I would argue that I pushed harder on the Flay wagon then anyone else did, basically starting it that day and keeping my vote there all day.

So why does he trust Fritzer and no one else, not even me who arguably did even more on the Flay bandwagon, after being so suspicious of Fritzer earlier and after making such a big point of saying that Fritzer would throw fellow scum to the wolves? Again, I think that he's scum, and that he acnolaged Fritzer as a good guy because everyone else thought he was a good guy and he wasn't going to change anyone's mind on that, and that he planned to kill Fritzer tonight anyway, so admitting it was no loss at that point.

[Lloyd]

he planned to kill Fritzer tonight

Yes, you are absolutely correct, and I already sent the following kill to Norinel:

Kill: Fritzler

By the way, my GG-BG-No_Read list from yesterday, and *NOT* today.

Just because I categorize Fritzler as a GG, it doesn't mean I trust him.

GG = less likely to be scum, but still potentially a scum

Come to think of it, I'll switch my vote for Twomz instead.

I don't understand why he would be worried about Fritzler and Yosarian2 voting for me.

At the time, creampuffeater reached 3 votes first, Twomz was pushing for a creampuffeater lynch, so what was it that he was worried about regarding the bandwagon for me?

Unvote

Vote: Twomz

[Twomz]

???? The reason I was worried that Yos and Fritz were voting you was because they are the 2 most confirmed players right now. They've been on your wagon the whole time instead of the CPE wagon, and that makes me feel like there's something wrong w/ it. But, I still think that CPE is the last scum, although Llyod's last post gives me third thoughts about it. (fritz and yos on his wagon is the 2nd thought)

[Fritzler]

???? The reason I was worried that Yos and Fritz were voting you was because they are the 2 most confirmed players right now. They've been on your wagon the whole time instead of the CPE wagon, and that makes me feel like there's something wrong w/ it. But, I still think that CPE is the last scum, although Llyod's last post gives me third thoughts about it. (fritz and yos on his wagon is the 2nd thought)

that doesn't make us anymore likely to be right or anything

[Lloyd]

???? The reason I was worried that Yos and Fritz were voting you was because they are the 2 most confirmed players right now. They've been on your wagon the whole time instead of the CPE wagon, and that makes me feel like there's something wrong w/ it. But, I still think that CPE is the last scum, although Llyod's last post gives me third thoughts about it. (fritz and yos on his wagon is the 2nd thought)

I'd recommend a closer look at Twomz

24 hours to deadline (Minus a few minutes), no vote changes. Lloyd will be lynched at deadline if nothing changes.

go scum

[Fritzler]

uggh, i want this game to be over

im gone this wed-sat, and i don't want the game to be held up while im gone, and me be confirmed while i was gone at night

if im scum, i'd know lloyd was town and would send my night kill now

so i could kill you all faster

see you on sat

[Twomz]

*cough cough* You ok Norinel?

[Norinel]

Apologies; I was only available for a little bit last night, when Scum was inaccessible.

End of Day Vote Count:

Lloyd- 3 (Yosarian2, Fritzler, creampuffeater)
creampuffeater- 2 (Twomz, Cogito Ergo Sum)
Cogito Ergo Sum- 1 (MrBuddyLee)
Twomz- 1 (Lloyd)

Not voting (0): No one

4 to lynch, 3 at deadline.[/quote]

Day 8

I don't have anything to pun on Lloyd, so, um, the travellers are tired of throwing people off cliffs, so they leave him out to freeze instead while they search his tent and don't find any sign of guilt.

Lloyd (Townie) - lynched Day 8.

It is now Night 8, send choice by this time Friday.

[Norinel]

Night 8:

In a striking departure from horrible username puns, Fritzler has been shot dead in his tent. Time seems to be running out.

Townies alive: 4
Mafia alive: 1

Mafia lynches to town win: 1
Town lynches to mafia win: 2
Chance of town win given random lynch: 46.6%

Fritzler (Townie) - killed Night 8

It is now Day 9, 5 alive means 3 to lynch. Deadline 7 days, 7/28.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: Creampuffeater

, it's time to lynch us some scum.

[Twomz]

*sigh* CPE should have been the lynch yesterday

From what i've heard from everyone this is the remaining player list (in order of most likely to be scum to most likely to be town)

CPE
CES
Twomz
MBL
Yos2

I'll wait for everyone to check in and voice their opinion before I vote CPE (which I will be doing anyway saturday night, so you have just under 24hours to post in thread).

[creampuffeater]

FRITZ IS DEAD NOES.... personally I think scum is CES, but it could be twomz.

[Twomz]

vote: creampuffeater