Open 12 - Masons & Monks (ABANDONED) - before 405

[ac1983fan]

no, i'm just saying the truth, town is screwed if we lynch town today and mafia/werewolves both kill town tonight. Not guilttrip, just truth. You seem like scum, jumping on the bandwagon for no particular reason.

vote:nightfall

[Nightfall]

IF you really are town
If mafia and wolves both kill townies tonight (which is Pretty unlikely)
Then we'll be down to 3 town.
Which still isn't "screwed"

[ac1983fan]

3 town vs. 4 scum is almost screwed.
and I am town. you can lynch me if you want, and the mod will tell you im a townie. of course, then that would be

your

the town's

loss.

[Nightfall]

You know that the mafia and the wolves arent alligned together right?
At that stage they would be more likely wantiing to target each other.

[scotmany12]

thank god, i wasn't killed night one. Alright, so now that we have one of the masons eliminated, that leaves us with 3 two-person groups. If one person claims to be monk and the person they say is there partner vouches for them, then we know that they either are the monks, werewolves, or mafia.

Um, how did you know that a mason was eliminated. The mod never stated that VitaminR was a mason, or I am not seeing where it was stated.

[Patrick]

First post:

VitaminR - Mason - Killed Night 0

[scotmany12]

My fault, didn't see that.

[Simenon]

Vote scotmany

, obviously

[Simenon]

Unvote, Vote Scotmany12

[mole]

Obvious, why? We already covered "claiming mason wasn't a good move and it doesn't confirm your innocence" last page.

[ac1983fan]

You know that the mafia and the wolves arent alligned together right?
At that stage they would be more likely wantiing to target each other.

Well, yes, i knew that, but the first crosskill both ways will fail (that'swhat the mod said, at least). So, if the mafia tries to kill werewolves and the werewolves kill a townie, will still be in a trouble spot.

[BrizzyBoi]

The "I am not a Mafia Mod" Votecount

ac1983 - 3 (IH, Pever, Nightfall)
Nightfall - 3 (ac1983fan, Patrick, mole)
IH - 1 (Twito)
Scotmany12 - 1 (Simenon)

Still 6 to Lynch

[IH]

You guys do realize that Ac pretty much was wanting a mass claim? There's a mason claim out, if the monks claim, the remainder have to be vanilla's/Scum/wolves.
That's not even counting possibly clearing a wolf/scum from there claims that could be true.
= (

[pevergreen]

So, what do we do?

Nightfall isnt looking scum to me, so i am leaving my vote on ac1983.

Still hasnt convinced me he is pro-town

[Simenon]

Obvious, why? We already covered "claiming mason wasn't a good move and it doesn't confirm your innocence" last page.

Ugh, I wasn't thinking. I thought "wow, if he didn't know his mason partner died, he must not be a mason!" But now I remember that he is uncountered, making that completely silly.

Unvote, Vote ac1983

[Twito]

Well, how do we know he is really a mason? he could be mafia or werewolf just pretending to be mason in order to protect himself. of course, since there's no cops in this game, it will be harder to figure out who's scum and who's town.

Then again no one has counterclaim. If someone would we could trade one townie to one scum.

I don't believe claims this early in the game. Any1 who does is suspicous to me.

vote:mole

You are a moron. Why not vote the one making the claim then btw?

whatever, i still don't believe him/her

unvote

You are a moron. Oops.. Just remembered the topic about being nice to noobs. You might have to re-think that using brain?
Better?

thank god, i wasn't killed night one. Alright, so now that we have one of the masons eliminated, that leaves us with 3 two-person groups. If one person claims to be monk and the person they say is there partner vouches for them, then we know that they either are the monks, werewolves, or mafia.

Um, how did you know that a mason was eliminated. The mod never stated that VitaminR was a mason, or I am not seeing where it was stated.

You just gained the moron award againts all odds.

I'm still waiting for support to lynch IH. We failed on lynching him page one which is a shame but if we try hard enough now maybe just maybe..

[mole]

So we've got ac two votes from a lynch, and Nightfall three votes from a lynch. It's only page 3 -- should we slow down and figure out just

how

unlikely the event of the town being screwed by a bad lynch is?

I'll assume both scum groups kill randomly.

Innocent lynched today:

Both groups crosskill: 2/7 * 2/7 = 4/49

8.2%

One group crosskills, the other hits a townie: 2 * 2/7 * 5/7 = 20/49

40.8%

Both groups kill a townie: 5/7 * 4/7 = 20/49

40.8%

Both groups kill the same townie: 5/7 * 1/7 = 5/49

10.2%

Mafia lynched today:

Both groups crosskill: 1/7 * 2/8 = 2/56

3.6%

Mafia hits werewolf, werewolves hit townie: 6/7 * 2/8 = 12/56

21.4%

Werewolf hits mafia, mafia hits townie: 1/7 * 6/8 = 6/56

10.7%

Both groups kill a townie: 6/7 * 5/8 = 30/56

53.6%

Both groups kill the same townie: 6/7 * 1/8 = 6/56

10.7%

If we lynch a werewolf the odds are the same as above with mafia and werewolves reversed.

[mole]

Please correct me if there are any errors in my maths. If we want to continue with it from here it'll get a lot more complicated.

[IH]

There's a same chance for both scum hitting townie and no crosskill? I think you did your math wrong Mole. There's also a higher chance of both groups killing the same townie than a cross kill? That should be wrong, because for a scum group they have two targets, right? For both to hit one they should only have one hit.

So it shouldn't be 6/7*1/8 shouldn't be 1/7*2?

[mole]

I'm not sure which lines you are talking about in your first query, sorry.

For the second, about the mafia and werewolves killing the same player, there are

six

townie targets, and each of them has a 1/7 * 1/8 chance of being hit twice.

[Twito]

Unvote
Vote: Mole

It's always the scum doing those calculation posts. No guestion about it.

[mole]

So you aren't interested in how we're going to get a town win from two powerful mafia groups. Noted.

[Twito]

So you aren't interested in how we're going to get a town win from two powerful mafia groups. Noted.

Providing % in attempt to look useful is a scumtell. And your % are wrong. I don't give a fuck about those %. We can't affect who scum will nightkill all I'm here to do is lynch scum every day and that's it. You are the scum of the day kthxbai.

[ac1983fan]

You guys do realize that Ac pretty much was wanting a mass claim? There's a mason claim out, if the monks claim, the remainder have to be vanilla's/Scum/wolves.
That's not even counting possibly clearing a wolf/scum from there claims that could be true.
= (

I wasn't trying to make a mass claim, just trying to think strategically. Of course, i realized afterwards I made a stupid mistake there, so...

[pevergreen]

Im still waiting for someone to counterclaim mason.

Of course he could be a Werewolf as well, and tell his partner whats going on.