Mini 380: Artifacts- Game over

[Nai]

Well, it's either that, or we have a scum group which go the ability to make a second kill. We have already stated you had a vig ability which only kills scum, and we know an SK is dead. So there's very few choices in the matter. Personally, I think the scum had a second kill, or got an artifact that did such. The amount of NK abilities flying around amazes me.

Which is one of the reasons your ability confuses me. There are so many NK abilities flying about, I don't think a 'safety kill' would be another one.

And we'd have a good target today if you confirmed me. We'd have Kelly Chen, who you found suspicious, who could be looked at. We'd also have a confirmed townie, me, so we'd have 1/6 people confirmed and a good target for today's lynch.

The way I figure it, we have 2 mafia today. We also have at least one NK ability flying around. In other words, we are currently sitting one day away from Lynch or Lose.

[Coron]

Well, it's either that, or we have a scum group which go the ability to make a second kill. We have already stated you had a vig ability which only kills scum, and we know an SK is dead. So there's very few choices in the matter.

One of the kills couldn't have been a vig(or vig-like artifact)? Again you're acting like you have inside info on what's going on by seeming to miss or rule out plausible scenarios.

Personally, I think the scum had a second kill, or got an artifact that did such. The amount of NK abilities flying around amazes me.
Which is one of the reasons your ability confuses me. There are so many NK abilities flying about, I don't think a 'safety kill' would be another one.

and it makes more sense for there to be another sk instead? I agree, it seems obvious to me we have at least 4 killing abilities. I think it is likely that there is an artifact out there that is basically a true vig. This does not seem unreasonable to me in terms of killing abilities: Vig, Sk, Mafia, 1 shot kills only scum.

And we'd have a good target today if you confirmed me. We'd have Kelly Chen, who you found suspicious, who could be looked at. We'd also have a confirmed townie, me, so we'd have 1/6 people confirmed and a good target for today's lynch.

right now I feel we have a better target and I feel there was actually a greater chance if I targeted Kelly would would have ended up with a confirmed rather than targeting you.

The way I figure it, we have 2 mafia today. We also have at least one NK ability flying around. In other words, we are currently sitting one day away from Lynch or Lose.

With those assuptions, unless town controls the 2nd NK ability WE ARE AT LYNCH OR LOSE.

[Nai]

If you are town, I consider your ability to be a vig-like ability, so no, I don't think there's another pro-town killing role. That doesn't seem particularly feasable. I think that the mafia had a second kill last night, which would explain why there WAS a kill. Somehow, I don't think the town would be that risky.

... But if you killed Kelly, since you said you thought she was scum, we don't have anyone confirmed. Yes, we have one less scum, but why wouldn't you target the guy you said is scum the entire game? Why would you go after someone completely different, and without saying anything to the town?

And yes, you're right. IF the mafia controls the second NK ability (which I think is true), we ARE at LoL.

So, damnit, post people!

[Coron]

If you are town, I consider your ability to be a vig-like ability, so no, I don't think there's another pro-town killing role.

artifacts are neither pro-town nor pro-mafia :teach:

... But if you killed Kelly, since you said you thought she was scum, we don't have anyone confirmed. Yes, we have one less scum, but why wouldn't you target the guy you said is scum the entire game? Why would you go after someone completely different, and without saying anything to the town?

I've explained this.

And yes, you're right. IF the mafia controls the second NK ability (which I think is true), we ARE at LoL.

So, damnit, post people!

agreed.

[Nai]

True, artifacts are neither pro-town nor pro-mafia. However, I think they fit the alignment that they start with. I doubt the mafia would have started with my artifact, and I doubt they'd have started with a doc ability.

And yes, you explained it, but it still seems really scummy.

[Coron]

True, artifacts are neither pro-town nor pro-mafia. However, I think they fit the alignment that they start with. I doubt the mafia would have started with my artifact, and I doubt they'd have started with a doc ability.

I dont doubt that they could start with either of those.

And yes, you explained it, but it still seems really scummy.

care to explain how it's wrong?

[Norinel]

Poking GreenLiquid, ShadowLurker, and Zindaras.

Vote Count:

Coron- 1 (Apeiron)

Not voting (5): Everyone else

[Nai]

I already explained how it's wrong. You decided to go off on a whim instead of testing someone you already clearly think is scum. You didn't bother to let the town know anything, just striking off on your own.

[Coron]

I already explained how it's wrong. You decided to go off on a whim instead of testing someone you already clearly think is scum. You didn't bother to let the town know anything, just striking off on your own.

You haven't explained how I made the wrong move still, you have not refuted my reasons in any way shape or form. I have explained why it was best to go after my 2nd best canidate to be scum not the first.

Also, I see no reason I needed to claim my power before hand, if the scum DID get a hold of a doctor artifact it would let them become clear if I had claimed it early. Does not seem like a good thing.

[Nai]

But now there's no way to prove you are town, or that you did what you said you did.

And yes, I have explained, several times, why you made the wrong move. It means that you did not clear anyone. Because you did not announce, or even hint, at what you were doing, that means that there's no way to clear YOU. If you are scum, which I'm still in favor of, it's a decent plan to pin the lynch today on me. It'd be a good way to make sure that you, one of the last two (or so I believe) scum are cleared for a Lynch or Lose situation.

[Coron]

And yes, I have explained, several times, why you made the wrong move. It means that you did not clear anyone. Because you did not announce, or even hint, at what you were doing, that means that there's no way to clear YOU.

how would it have cleared me anyway? Also, didn't I explain the whole potential for a scum with a doctor artifact thing already?

If you are scum, which I'm still in favor of, it's a decent plan to pin the lynch today on me. It'd be a good way to make sure that you, one of the last two (or so I believe) scum are cleared for a Lynch or Lose situation.

So you're saying we have 2 SKs and 2 mafia, or are you saying I'm part of the mafia that killed my own or what?

[ShadowLurker]

From the current posts, it seems obvious to me that Nai/Apeiron are scum. However, GreenLiquid's lack of contribution even though he clearly picked up a prod in the night concerns me greatly.

I am eliminating Zindaras solely by his actions related to his artifact and his artifact. While I would probably not normally do this, I just don't see Zindaras being scum as three other people are so much more scummy than him.

Coron seems obv town IMO, his reasoning is logical and solid basing it on the fact that I feel like his suspicions are real. I could still see a Coron/Nai scumgroup but it's below Nai/Apeiron.

Nai seems like he is trying to obfuscate things by throwing out wild things like scum has two kills, two SKs, or things that seem like a complete stretch and I really feel that he is scum right now.

I am ready to vote Nai although with Apeiron's vote on Coron, I think a vote on Apeiron might be wiser. Still not sure and I'd really like some input from Zindaras and especially GL.

[Nai]

Okay, what about three kills last night did you not understand? One would have been mafia, one would have been Coron, and there's a final kill not accounted for. I'm not willing to let Coron off the hook just yet. I'm not liking his answers to the questions I'm providing.

And Coron, your bit about the Doctor artifact is nuts. We had already LOST the doctor day 2. There's no reason to believe there was another doctor. So there's no reason to believe the mafia could stop you. Try again.

[Nai]

EBWODP: Right now, I'm really tempted to say Coron/Shadowlurker as the scum group. Shadowlurker is going after the two people against Coron, and I find that suspicious.

[Coron]

Nai, I targeted night 2, before I would have known about those kills.

[Coron]

Rather, that was day 2 not night 2, point stands though.

[Coron]

Wait, ok I think I might have been confusing there. I targeted night 2. He(the guy with the doc artifact) died the next day, day 2, thus I did not know of his death at the time I targeted, or in fact any point before today.

[Nai]

If I'm understanding this correctly, you targetted Kelly Chen TWO nights ago, not this just passed night?

[Coron]

Why did you attempt to kill her? I don't remember you saying she was your main target.

Ok, I will try to fully explain now. I started with The Feather of Pegamel.
It summons a flying camel that shoots lasers out it's ass to pass judgement on the person that it targets.

The night after I target the person they will die if they are scum.

[Nai]

I don't know, that sounds a bit too convenient for me. That you don't use it on me because you feel that I'd die before it resolves, and that you use it BEFORE the Doc dies, and that it's one use ever so you can't pass it so we can confirm. Lots of ways to cover your ass.

[Coron]

I don't know, that sounds a bit too convenient for me. That you don't use it on me because you feel that I'd die before it resolves, and that you use it BEFORE the Doc dies, and that it's one use ever so you can't pass it so we can confirm. Lots of ways to cover your ass.

It turns out I'm not covering my ass, it's just that my answers are actually *gasp* consistant.

[Nai]

They're also all answers given AFTER the fact, and none of them are confirmable.

[Zindaras]

Those numbers are completely made up, as far as I can tell. They're also numbers biased in your view that I'm scum. Yes, town wasting a lynch is bad.

But the numbers are correct from his perspective, and that's the most important thing here.

Let's compare the choices, statistically:

Lynch Kelly, kill Nai: (changing numbers to 0.75, 0.8 to make calculating easier)

Two dead scum: 0.75*0.8=0.6
One dead scum: 0.75*0.2+0.25*0.8=0.15+0.2=0.35
Zero dead scum: 0.25*0.2=0.05

One town dead: 0.25
Zero town dead: 0.75

Lynch Nai, kill Kelly:

Two dead scum: 0.8*0.75=0.6
One dead scum: 0.8*0.25+0.75*0.2=0.35
Zero dead scum: 0.25*0.2=0.05

One town dead: 0.2
Zero town dead: 0.8

As Coron himself said, the statistical better choice is clearly to kill Kelly, because that gives a smaller chance of killing a townie. Add to that the fact that Nai's lynch is probably easier than Kelly's (something not taken into the statistical analysis), and killing Kelly is clearly the superior choice.

I'm really starting to like a Nai/Apeiron lynch/scumteam, looking at their interactions.

[Nai]

Erm... Where, exactly, are you getting these numbers, exactly? Coron admitted all of his were made up. You're doing baseless calculations here.

And how, exactly, are we interacting? He thinks Coron is scum. I think Coron is scum. Does that mean you and Coron are a team because you both thing me and Apeiron are scum?

[Apeiron]

Let me just clarify that I am not scum