Mini 419: Farkle Mafia (Game Over)

Dagger · Post Post #325 (ISO) » Sat May 19, 2007 4:59 pm

Unvote

I am inclined to trust that claim.

Now we go for CES, yes?

Also,

a3maniac

, your turn?

Thesp · Post Post #326 (ISO) » Sun May 20, 2007 3:45 am

Seol wrote:
Nocmen wrote:I wasn't paying attention when I read my role. After the crash, I went and reread everything I had to not get my roles in each game confused after a week hiatus or so. That's all I can really say to my past thought, poor reading comprehension made me take the chance that did pay out.
That does actually make sense, and if it's a lie, it's a
very
clever one. Furthermore, it only makes sense if you are a vig, not an SK.

unvote.

As uncomfortable as I am with claimed vigs who fire N1 being left alive, I do find your argument here very compelling.

Unvote: Nocmen

. I'd still like for Coron to swing.

Coron · Post Post #327 (ISO) » Sun May 20, 2007 4:47 am

...that is the most lame excuse in the world as far as I'm concerned, a SK who wanted to claim vig would claim that most likely. I don't really understand all the unvoting, heck I was about to place my vote there.

unvote Vote: nocmen

Seol · Post Post #328 (ISO) » Sun May 20, 2007 11:12 am

Thesp wrote:As uncomfortable as I am with claimed vigs who fire N1 being left alive, I do find your argument here very compelling.

Is that because they're likely to be SKs, or as a metagame pressure to stop vigs firing night 0 to weaken vig claims for SKs who fire night 0?

Coron wrote:...that is the most lame excuse in the world as far as I'm concerned, a SK who wanted to claim vig would claim that most likely. I don't really understand all the unvoting, heck I was about to place my vote there.

I'll explain my reasoning in a bit more detail then.

If he'd said he always fires on night 1 due to meta-strategy or whatever, then fine. If he had a beef with DeanWinchester for out-of-game reasons, then fine. If he said he was a compulsory vig, fine. Those are all reasons a townie vig might fire night 0, and those are all also common excuses from SKs claiming to be vigs.

He didn't say that. He said he fired because he

thought

it was compulsory, but later realised it wasn't. This gave me a problem, as the only time I can see re-reading a role PM in detail is when it's going to make a difference to your play, and the only time to do that is at night. But if he re-read it at night, then he'd have realised in time to take back the kill, so that doesn't add up. In fact, when I saw that argument, I thought "Gotcha!".

But there's an invalid assumption there - that being there

was

another time to re-read role PMs, ie recovering from the crash.

If he's the SK, the thought process "oooh, I don't have to kill if I don't want to, that didn't occur to me" doesn't fit, because SKs want to kill (yes, there are certain odd situations where they might not, but that mostly applies to night 0 and he didn't choose not to fire then). In other words, for him to have had this thought process is in itself evidence he is town. Of course, it's possible he didn't have that thought process, and it's just another excuse. I have problems with that, though.

If he's the SK, there are two possibilities. Either he had a pre-prepared explanation for his justification for the "vig kill" night 0, or he didn't. But, of course, he didn't know there was going to be the crash when he sent his kill in - so whatever his explanation was, it wasn't the "I re-read my role PM when the site recovered from the crash". If he did have a pre-prepared explanation, then he must have noticed the opportunity to drop that pre-prepared explanation when the crash happened and decided to switch to this one, and yet despite having come up with this justification as a cover plan,

not brought it up until directly questioned thereon

.

If he

didn't

have a pre-planned explanation, then he either came up with it after the crash - which means a) he didn't come up with a strategy at the beginning of the game when he was deciding his nightkill, but suddenly realised the need for a day 1 claim strategy midway through day 1 and b) came up with this intricate and clever lie at that point - or he came up with it when being pressured to justify his actions, at which point he didn't come up with any of the standard excuses but remembered the crash from over a month ago and came up with that as an excuse for realising he wasn't overeager.

Now, none of these are impossible. However, they're not, IMO, very plausible - they require a great deal of ingenuity and in most of situations where he's an SK it also requires a change of mindset. Thus,

if

his justification for the kill is a lie, it's a

very

clever one, and the two most likely scenarios for him coming up with it as a lie have additional problems. If his justification for the kill is the truth, that strongly indicates he is town.

There might be some flaws in that thought process, but it's good enough for me at the moment.

ThAdmiral · Post Post #329 (ISO) » Mon May 21, 2007 12:44 am

For the most part it seems we are for keeping nocmen alive. So now we have to decide who he is to kill tonight, or if indeed that is necessary.

Thesp · Post Post #330 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2007 11:39 am

Seol wrote:
Thesp wrote:As uncomfortable as I am with claimed vigs who fire N1 being left alive, I do find your argument here very compelling.
Is that because they're likely to be SKs, or as a metagame pressure to stop vigs firing night 0 to weaken vig claims for SKs who fire night 0?

The former. There seems to be an unnatural tendency among players to think that the surest way to pass by as a townie when SK is to claim to be a vig. Regardless, your argument on his claim is top-notch and very compelling.

ThAdmiral wrote:So now we have to decide who he is to kill tonight, or if indeed that is necessary.

Why?

FOS: ThAdmiral

.

Nai · Post Post #331 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2007 2:42 pm

Folks, I'm going on vacation in two days for a period of around 9 days. I may or may not have internet. I'll post whenever I can to update things. Speaking of updates, I'll have one tomorrow. Today, I'm dog tired.

ThAdmiral · Post Post #332 (ISO) » Tue May 22, 2007 11:56 pm

Thesp wrote:
ThAdmiral wrote:So now we have to decide who he is to kill tonight, or if indeed that is necessary.
Why?
FOS: ThAdmiral
.

Two reasons:

1. the town can have two lynches

2. if he is a serial killer then he would be working for town anyway.

I would be happy if he didn't hit anyone tonight. We don't have any strong leads on anyone and should really only be looking to go for a kill if there's a cop investigation or something really suspicious in the next few days.

Thesp · Post Post #333 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 4:36 pm

ThAdmiral wrote:
Thesp wrote:
ThAdmiral wrote:So now we have to decide who he is to kill tonight, or if indeed that is necessary.
Why?
FOS: ThAdmiral
.
Two reasons:

1. the town can have two lynches

2. if he is a serial killer then he would be working for town anyway.

I would be happy if he didn't hit anyone tonight. We don't have any strong leads on anyone and should really only be looking to go for a kill if there's a cop investigation or something really suspicious in the next few days.

I disagree, I think he should kill as he sees fit, and I don't want him revealing who he will kill.

ThAdmiral · Post Post #334 (ISO) » Thu May 24, 2007 9:31 pm

I explained my standing. Your turn.

Dagger · Post Post #335 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2007 8:01 am

Thesp wrote:
ThAdmiral wrote:
Thesp wrote:
ThAdmiral wrote:So now we have to decide who he is to kill tonight, or if indeed that is necessary.
Why?
FOS: ThAdmiral
.
Two reasons:

1. the town can have two lynches

2. if he is a serial killer then he would be working for town anyway.

I would be happy if he didn't hit anyone tonight. We don't have any strong leads on anyone and should really only be looking to go for a kill if there's a cop investigation or something really suspicious in the next few days.
I disagree, I think he should kill as he sees fit, and I don't want him revealing who he will kill.

That is dangerous because there is still the remote possibility he's not a vig as was claimed.

ThAdmiral · Post Post #336 (ISO) » Tue May 29, 2007 1:06 am

Where the hell is everybody!!!!!

Cogito Ergo Scum · Post Post #337 (ISO) » Tue May 29, 2007 3:37 am

ThAdmiral wrote:Where the hell is everybody!!!!!

They're all speechless because they're amazed by the wonderful contribution you just made.

Nai · Post Post #338 (ISO) » Tue May 29, 2007 9:57 am

Setting unretractable deadline for Friday, June 1st. Vote count to come later today.

ThAdmiral · Post Post #339 (ISO) » Tue May 29, 2007 3:12 pm

I'm shattered that I got another go. I really could have won this thing if I got out at the right time last round. Anyway...

Original Roll String: 6d6

6 6-Sided Dice: (3, 2, 2, 1, 4, 3) = 15

ThAdmiral · Post Post #340 (ISO) » Tue May 29, 2007 3:13 pm

take out the three 5's for 500.
total score = 750.

I'll just stop there this time.

kilmenator · Post Post #341 (ISO) » Wed May 30, 2007 5:22 am

Daggers turn...need time to read and post... but with deadline looming, that is likely to happen very soon... if I have time

Dagger · Post Post #342 (ISO) » Wed May 30, 2007 5:43 am

Dagger is here.

I would suggest we just go for the other option, i.e. CES, but it seems unlikely right now.

Original Roll String: 6d6

6 6-Sided Dice: (6, 2, 3, 6, 5, 1) = 23

Dagger · Post Post #343 (ISO) » Wed May 30, 2007 5:44 am

Take 5 = 50 out.

Original Roll String: 5d6

5 6-Sided Dice: (1, 1, 4, 1, 4) = 11

Dagger · Post Post #344 (ISO) » Wed May 30, 2007 5:44 am

Take 5 = 50 out.

Original Roll String: 4d6

4 6-Sided Dice: (4, 3, 6, 6) = 19

Dagger · Post Post #345 (ISO) » Wed May 30, 2007 5:45 am

Take 5 = 50 out.

It's getting repetitive.

Original Roll String: 3d6

3 6-Sided Dice: (6, 4, 6) = 16

Dagger · Post Post #346 (ISO) » Wed May 30, 2007 5:46 am

Take 1 = 100 out.

*shrugs*

Might as well.

[*dice]2d6[/dice]

Dagger · Post Post #347 (ISO) » Wed May 30, 2007 5:46 am

Original Roll String: 2d6

2 6-Sided Dice: (2, 2) = 4

Dagger · Post Post #348 (ISO) » Wed May 30, 2007 5:47 am

Farkle.

It's now kilmenator's turn.

Thesp · Post Post #349 (ISO) » Wed May 30, 2007 4:27 pm

Dagger wrote:That is dangerous because there is still the remote possibility he's not a vig as was claimed.

How else will we find out if he's the Serial Killer or not? Also, why help out the mafia? I bet they'd love to know who he's going to kill. Also, won't the alignment of the lynched play some role in the decision?