Mini 456: Ultimatum Mafia - Game Over!

[Battle Mage]

if hes a con trying a gambit, he will be countered by the REAL liberal right?
hence i requested a counter-claim.

[The Fonz]

Nope. Because it's going to get him lynched anyway, and sooner rather than later. Why would the last liberal, if not VD, want to out himself to achieve something that's going to happen anyway?

[mneme]

To add a secondary thread to the !dylan topic -- anyone disagree with keeping the "nominate up to two" feel from yesterday? I think it does its job at generating extra info beyond the pure lynch.

Eh...nominating up to 2 isn't really harmful, but I don't think we should or can try to pick both sides;

Agreed -- I'd basically dropped this idea by the end of the day yesterday. I just think the secondary votes (and putting more votes in the air) makes it easier for the top voted person to intelligently pick an opponent -- and produce more info, of course.

That's basically what we did yesterday and I think it worked out well.

Indeed.

That said, it's very important that we lynch in highprob->lowprob order, with enough info to be able to win the endgame

So, you're thinking that it's more important to lynch someone who's high probability scum rather then someone we think is more likely to be a member of the conservative mafia?

...and what was a somewhat irrelevant question suddently becomes very relevant, with Damien's claim (an interesting move. Damien -had- been fingered, since Sparks linked to him almost as much as to Dean, but still...). We now have a 100% probabilty scum lynch available -- which generates almost no information.

I think it's more important to avoid lynching town than to lynch the "right" mafia, and to pick our lynches so they give info as well as having a high probabilty of lynching scum. That said, yes, the conservative mafia is a much higher priority, and with our (probably; Damien could be a tory trying to misdirect the town for some reason, I just don't think it's likely) liberal mafia entirely exposed, we've got a few days we can mess around and try to get useful info before lynching our lone Liberal.

BM's reaction to Damien coming clean is very interesting. And possibly telling; Dan was pretty scummy, so this seems like a likely prospect.

Dean %liberal has dropped close to 0 (and his conservative cred depends a lot on whether Dylan is scum, which I'm inclined to think he is), and I'm not interested in sending Damien into the ring, so:

unnom: Dean
nom: BM

[Battle Mage]

Nope. Because it's going to get him lynched anyway, and sooner rather than later. Why would the last liberal, if not VD, want to out himself to achieve something that's going to happen anyway?

true. its this possibility that makes me even more certain that VD is the play. Not only is he CERTAIN scum, but also potentially Conservative, which is even better.

My analysis is pending btw, though much of it may be less relevant now, in light of VD's claim.

BM

[The Fonz]

Hmmm I hate to admit to this, but although Dan was scummy, I'm getting a town vibe off of BM. (Yes, I know, first time for everything). Seems like he's genuinely trying to figure out what's going on, and what's best for town.

[The Fonz]

Nope. Because it's going to get him lynched anyway, and sooner rather than later. Why would the last liberal, if not VD, want to out himself to achieve something that's going to happen anyway?

true. its this possibility that makes me even more certain that VD is the play. Not only is he CERTAIN scum, but also potentially Conservative, which is even better.

He's

A

Play. I really don't think he's today's, though.

[mneme]

True. I crossed with his last two posts or so (which backed off a lot from "ignored the conservatives in the corner"), and I'm wiling to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. But I'm still a bit suspicious of him.

Come to think of it, Dean's big scumtell is still around (ie, "no, we must not call the scum scum -- we must call them a 'group of three'" , and if dylan checks out as a tory, there's a case to be made that the stuff that lead to dylan's lying was him busing Dean and then getting caught at it.

unnom: BM
nom: Dean

[The Fonz]

I think Dylan's big scumtells were lying about his 'random' vote, and refusing to explain his list of people he thought were townies, personally.

[Stewie]

That doesn't entirely make sense. The two scumgroups' winning condition states that the group needs to be alive (ie, at least one surviving member) and equal in number to all others surviving. If we agree to keep him alive until the first Con is found, that gives us three, rather than two, mislynches before we're at LyLo, in the scenario where our first two don't hit scum.

Can you explain that again, I'm having trouble understanding it. I think that the best thing at the moment would be lynching him. He might even be conservative mafia, but that doesn't matter since he's scum for sure.

[The Fonz]

Sure. The Conservative scumgroup needs to get to the position where they've got half the remaining players. If we lynch Van now, that leaves them with three of nine, requiring three mislynches in a row to win. If we save him until the first con is caught, that means we'd have to mislynch four times in a row to lose. (Unless he is a con pulling a gambit, but even then, that doesn't change the number of lynches- we'd still need to hit con scum in the next three). It's like leaving an SK alive to prevent mafia gaining the majority in a normal game.

[mneme]

I think Dylan's big scumtells were lying about his 'random' vote, and refusing to explain his list of people he thought were townies, personally.

And lurking. Don't forget lurking.

Yes, my point is that given that Dylan lying about his "random" vote was specficially lying about the random vote on Dean (after saying he though Dean wasn't suspicous when D was the only person he'd voted), that this does possibly produce a link.

[The Fonz]

EBWODP: If he's conservative, that doesn't change the number of lynches required for town to lose

in comparison with lynching him now and turning up liberal.

Of course, it by definition reduces the chances of us hitting scum.

[mneme]

If we lynch Van now, that leaves them with three of nine, requiring three mislynches in a row to win. If we save him until the first con is caught, that means we'd have to mislynch four times in a row to lose.

Alternative possibility. If we let things get too close to the wire, we're opening up the possibility of Van changing his mind.

While I don't think it makes much sense to lynch him today, I think there comes a point when we're better off lynching him than lynching someone less likely to be scum.

Most of this is pie in the sky stuff that evaporates if Dylan's a con, though.

[Stewie]

Sure. The Conservative scumgroup needs to get to the position where they've got half the remaining players. If we lynch Van now, that leaves them with three of nine, requiring three mislynches in a row to win. If we save him until the first con is caught, that means we'd have to mislynch four times in a row to lose. (Unless he is a con pulling a gambit, but even then, that doesn't change the number of lynches- we'd still need to hit con scum in the next three). It's like leaving an SK alive to prevent mafia gaining the majority in a normal game.

Ah, makes sense now.

Right now I'll

nom: dylan

but I might change my mind if his activity goes up and dean and spinwizard don't start participating.

[The Fonz]

If we lynch Van now, that leaves them with three of nine, requiring three mislynches in a row to win. If we save him until the first con is caught, that means we'd have to mislynch four times in a row to lose.

Alternative possibility. If we let things get too close to the wire, we're opening up the possibility of Van changing his mind.

While I don't think it makes much sense to lynch him today, I think there comes a point when we're better off lynching him than lynching someone less likely to be scum.

Most of this is pie in the sky stuff that evaporates if Dylan's a con, though.

Less likely? As in, not certain!

At this point, killing VD is almost the no-lynch option- if the deadline's nearing and we don't have anything close to a consensus candidate, we can put him up without fear of mislynch.

[dylan41985]

VanDamien -
While I appreciate your offer to help us, I feel like your proposal is more for your own benefit to stay in the game. If we know you're a mafia, why shouldn't we lynch you?

[dylan41985]

nominate: Van Damien

[dylan41985]

wait sorry, I just reread Fonz's post. are you saying we shouldn't nominate VanDamien?

unnominate Van Damien

[VanDamien]

Alternative possibility. If we let things get too close to the wire, we're opening up the possibility of Van changing his mind.

Huh? You thnk anyone will believe me if I try to retract? I'm a safe lynch at any day in the future.

VanDamien -
While I appreciate your offer to help us, I feel like your proposal is more for your own benefit to stay in the game. If we know you're a mafia, why shouldn't we lynch you?

I have guaranteed my own lynch, and the complete removal of the liberal mafia. In doing so I have given the town the opportunity to never have to have two townies challenging each other, as well as given them the ability to focus on finding only three other people, who are connected.

Furthermore, I have solidified the nomination process, enabling the town to get out as much information as possible.

I never said I shouldn't be lynched. I'm saying I shouldn't be lynched as long as I'm useful, which I don't expect to last more than one to two days.

[Yosarian2]

Hmmm. I've got to say, I don't really trust VanDamien here. I'm not sure why the last member of the liberal mafia would claim, as he'd then have basically a 0% chance of winning, while it might make sense for a conservative mafia member to claim liberal so we don't lynch him for a few days.

[Stewie]

Hmmm. I've got to say, I don't really trust VanDamien here. I'm not sure why the last member of the liberal mafia would claim, as he'd then have basically a 0% chance of winning, while it might make sense for a conservative mafia member to claim liberal so we don't lynch him for a few days.

I thought about that too, but it seems like a really risky thing for conservative mafia to do, since he's so easy to lynch now that he claimed. The only reason I can come up for doing this is a theoretical win. By doing this, he can't actually win the game, but he can help us win, which you can consider winning. It's not as if we keep a record for each player, so that might be enough incentive for him.

[DeanWinchester]

The right move, whether or not Van Damien is lying, is to keep him around. In a game where everyone is vanilla killing Van would only help the other group. He can't win with the town, but keeping him around is the same as keeping a townie around. For now that is. At some point we will have to kill him. But right now his body can be helpful.

@mneme: I really don't get your stance. You say twice how you think there is a good chance Dylan is scum, but both times you nominate someone else. BM than Me. What?

I would Nom. Dylan, but I still don't really like this system even though it worked very well Day 1. Plus I think Dylan is almost certain to be in the debate today.

[dylan41985]

there's no way a conservative mafia would give himself up as liberal mafia, in my opinion...not when the three of them are still going strong.

and please, PLEASE think again before nominating me. Although this may sound meaningless because I could be lying, I am a townie candidate.

[Stewie]

Act like one. For example, earlier on we asked you to tell us who was suspicious and who wasn't. You did this, but never really explained it.

[dylan41985]

I'm trying to go back and study the voting habits of everyone. Don't listen too much to these comments---I'm still trying to figure it out!

My original assumption that Sparks was mafia was correct, but I have a few changes in my opinion about the rest.

VanDamien - liberal mafia (admitted)

It's still really hard to distinguish between conservatives and townies because they're both kind of in the same boat with voting. I wish I could put everyone who keeps accusing me in my mafia list, but I understand that other townies don't know my position.

I believe Spin Wizard, Battlemage and one other person (maybe DeanWinchester) comprise the conservative mafia. The first two I mentioned both voted to save me, which is at least one connection between them.

The Fonz has been the most vocal about finding the mafia and getting rid of them, and he is the one who suggested the valid and pro-town plan to keep Van Damien around...so I think he is a townie.

Mr. Stoofer, Yosarian2, and Stewie and mneme still appear to be pro-town to me - maybe that's because I don't see many similarities in the way they're voting. Also, The Fonz (who I believe is innocent) and some of those mentioned above were initially supportive of nominating DeanWinchester and were also quick to correctly suspect Sparks as mafia.