Mini 456: Ultimatum Mafia - Game Over!
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Battle Mage Jester
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if hes a con trying a gambit, he will be countered by the REAL liberal right?
hence i requested a counter-claim.Show2020 Stats - 31 completed games:
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%-
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The Fonz Jack of All Trades
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mneme emneme mneme mninie mno
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Agreed -- I'd basically dropped this idea by the end of the day yesterday. I just think the secondary votes (and putting more votes in the air) makes it easier for the top voted person to intelligently pick an opponent -- and produce more info, of course.Yosarian2 wrote:
Eh...nominating up to 2 isn't really harmful, but I don't think we should or can try to pick both sides;mneme wrote: To add a secondary thread to the !dylan topic -- anyone disagree with keeping the "nominate up to two" feel from yesterday? I think it does its job at generating extra info beyond the pure lynch.
Indeed.Yosarian2 wrote: That's basically what we did yesterday and I think it worked out well.
...and what was a somewhat irrelevant question suddently becomes very relevant, with Damien's claim (an interesting move. Damien -had- been fingered, since Sparks linked to him almost as much as to Dean, but still...). We now have a 100% probabilty scum lynch available -- which generates almost no information.Yosarian2 wrote:
So, you're thinking that it's more important to lynch someone who's high probability scum rather then someone we think is more likely to be a member of the conservative mafia?mneme wrote: That said, it's very important that we lynch in highprob->lowprob order, with enough info to be able to win the endgame
I think it's more important to avoid lynching town than to lynch the "right" mafia, and to pick our lynches so they give info as well as having a high probabilty of lynching scum. That said, yes, the conservative mafia is a much higher priority, and with our (probably; Damien could be a tory trying to misdirect the town for some reason, I just don't think it's likely) liberal mafia entirely exposed, we've got a few days we can mess around and try to get useful info before lynching our lone Liberal.
BM's reaction to Damien coming clean is very interesting. And possibly telling; Dan was pretty scummy, so this seems like a likely prospect.
Dean %liberal has dropped close to 0 (and his conservative cred depends a lot on whether Dylan is scum, which I'm inclined to think he is), and I'm not interested in sending Damien into the ring, so:
unnom: Dean
nom: BMDid I say too much?-
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Battle Mage Jester
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true. its this possibility that makes me even more certain that VD is the play. Not only is he CERTAIN scum, but also potentially Conservative, which is even better.The Fonz wrote:Nope. Because it's going to get him lynched anyway, and sooner rather than later. Why would the last liberal, if not VD, want to out himself to achieve something that's going to happen anyway?
My analysis is pending btw, though much of it may be less relevant now, in light of VD's claim.
BMShow2020 Stats - 31 completed games:
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%-
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The Fonz Jack of All Trades
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The Fonz Jack of All Trades
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He'sBattle Mage wrote:
true. its this possibility that makes me even more certain that VD is the play. Not only is he CERTAIN scum, but also potentially Conservative, which is even better.The Fonz wrote:Nope. Because it's going to get him lynched anyway, and sooner rather than later. Why would the last liberal, if not VD, want to out himself to achieve something that's going to happen anyway?
APlay. I really don't think he's today's, though.-
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mneme emneme mneme mninie mno
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True. I crossed with his last two posts or so (which backed off a lot from "ignored the conservatives in the corner"), and I'm wiling to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. But I'm still a bit suspicious of him.
Come to think of it, Dean's big scumtell is still around (ie, "no, we must not call the scum scum -- we must call them a 'group of three'" , and if dylan checks out as a tory, there's a case to be made that the stuff that lead to dylan's lying was him busing Dean and then getting caught at it.
unnom: BM
nom: DeanDid I say too much?-
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The Fonz Jack of All Trades
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Stewie Mafia Scum
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Can you explain that again, I'm having trouble understanding it. I think that the best thing at the moment would be lynching him. He might even be conservative mafia, but that doesn't matter since he's scum for sure.The Fonz wrote:That doesn't entirely make sense. The two scumgroups' winning condition states that the group needs to be alive (ie, at least one surviving member) and equal in number to all others surviving. If we agree to keep him alive until the first Con is found, that gives us three, rather than two, mislynches before we're at LyLo, in the scenario where our first two don't hit scum.-
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The Fonz Jack of All Trades
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Sure. The Conservative scumgroup needs to get to the position where they've got half the remaining players. If we lynch Van now, that leaves them with three of nine, requiring three mislynches in a row to win. If we save him until the first con is caught, that means we'd have to mislynch four times in a row to lose. (Unless he is a con pulling a gambit, but even then, that doesn't change the number of lynches- we'd still need to hit con scum in the next three). It's like leaving an SK alive to prevent mafia gaining the majority in a normal game.-
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mneme emneme mneme mninie mno
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And lurking. Don't forget lurking.The Fonz wrote:I think Dylan's big scumtells were lying about his 'random' vote, and refusing to explain his list of people he thought were townies, personally.
Yes, my point is that given that Dylan lying about his "random" vote was specficially lying about the random vote on Dean (after saying he though Dean wasn't suspicous when D was the only person he'd voted), that this does possibly produce a link.Did I say too much?-
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The Fonz Jack of All Trades
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mneme emneme mneme mninie mno
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Alternative possibility. If we let things get too close to the wire, we're opening up the possibility of Van changing his mind.The Fonz wrote:If we lynch Van now, that leaves them with three of nine, requiring three mislynches in a row to win. If we save him until the first con is caught, that means we'd have to mislynch four times in a row to lose.
While I don't think it makes much sense to lynch him today, I think there comes a point when we're better off lynching him than lynching someone less likely to be scum.
Most of this is pie in the sky stuff that evaporates if Dylan's a con, though.Did I say too much?-
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Stewie Mafia Scum
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Ah, makes sense now.The Fonz wrote:Sure. The Conservative scumgroup needs to get to the position where they've got half the remaining players. If we lynch Van now, that leaves them with three of nine, requiring three mislynches in a row to win. If we save him until the first con is caught, that means we'd have to mislynch four times in a row to lose. (Unless he is a con pulling a gambit, but even then, that doesn't change the number of lynches- we'd still need to hit con scum in the next three). It's like leaving an SK alive to prevent mafia gaining the majority in a normal game.
Right now I'llnom: dylanbut I might change my mind if his activity goes up and dean and spinwizard don't start participating.-
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The Fonz Jack of All Trades
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Less likely? As in, not certain!mneme wrote:
Alternative possibility. If we let things get too close to the wire, we're opening up the possibility of Van changing his mind.The Fonz wrote:If we lynch Van now, that leaves them with three of nine, requiring three mislynches in a row to win. If we save him until the first con is caught, that means we'd have to mislynch four times in a row to lose.
While I don't think it makes much sense to lynch him today, I think there comes a point when we're better off lynching him than lynching someone less likely to be scum.
Most of this is pie in the sky stuff that evaporates if Dylan's a con, though.
At this point, killing VD is almost the no-lynch option- if the deadline's nearing and we don't have anything close to a consensus candidate, we can put him up without fear of mislynch.-
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dylan41985 Goon
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dylan41985
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dylan41985 Goon
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VanDamien Goon
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Huh? You thnk anyone will believe me if I try to retract? I'm a safe lynch at any day in the future.mneme wrote:Alternative possibility. If we let things get too close to the wire, we're opening up the possibility of Van changing his mind.
I have guaranteed my own lynch, and the complete removal of the liberal mafia. In doing so I have given the town the opportunity to never have to have two townies challenging each other, as well as given them the ability to focus on finding only three other people, who are connected.Dylan wrote:VanDamien -
While I appreciate your offer to help us, I feel like your proposal is more for your own benefit to stay in the game. If we know you're a mafia, why shouldn't we lynch you?
Furthermore, I have solidified the nomination process, enabling the town to get out as much information as possible.
I never said I shouldn't be lynched. I'm saying I shouldn't be lynched as long as I'm useful, which I don't expect to last more than one to two days.Fnord is the whole donut.-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Hmmm. I've got to say, I don't really trust VanDamien here. I'm not sure why the last member of the liberal mafia would claim, as he'd then have basically a 0% chance of winning, while it might make sense for a conservative mafia member to claim liberal so we don't lynch him for a few days.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Stewie Mafia Scum
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I thought about that too, but it seems like a really risky thing for conservative mafia to do, since he's so easy to lynch now that he claimed. The only reason I can come up for doing this is a theoretical win. By doing this, he can't actually win the game, but he can help us win, which you can consider winning. It's not as if we keep a record for each player, so that might be enough incentive for him.Yosarian2 wrote:Hmmm. I've got to say, I don't really trust VanDamien here. I'm not sure why the last member of the liberal mafia would claim, as he'd then have basically a 0% chance of winning, while it might make sense for a conservative mafia member to claim liberal so we don't lynch him for a few days.-
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DeanWinchester Goon
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The right move, whether or not Van Damien is lying, is to keep him around. In a game where everyone is vanilla killing Van would only help the other group. He can't win with the town, but keeping him around is the same as keeping a townie around. For now that is. At some point we will have to kill him. But right now his body can be helpful.
@mneme: I really don't get your stance. You say twice how you think there is a good chance Dylan is scum, but both times you nominate someone else. BM than Me. What?
I would Nom. Dylan, but I still don't really like this system even though it worked very well Day 1. Plus I think Dylan is almost certain to be in the debate today.-
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dylan41985 Goon
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Stewie Mafia Scum
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dylan41985 Goon
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I'm trying to go back and study the voting habits of everyone. Don't listen too much to these comments---I'm still trying to figure it out!
My original assumption that Sparks was mafia was correct, but I have a few changes in my opinion about the rest.
VanDamien - liberal mafia (admitted)
It's still really hard to distinguish between conservatives and townies because they're both kind of in the same boat with voting. I wish I could put everyone who keeps accusing me in my mafia list, but I understand that other townies don't know my position.
I believe Spin Wizard, Battlemage and one other person (maybe DeanWinchester) comprise the conservative mafia. The first two I mentioned both voted to save me, which is at least one connection between them.
The Fonz has been the most vocal about finding the mafia and getting rid of them, and he is the one who suggested the valid and pro-town plan to keep Van Damien around...so I think he is a townie.
Mr. Stoofer, Yosarian2, and Stewie and mneme still appear to be pro-town to me - maybe that's because I don't see many similarities in the way they're voting. Also, The Fonz (who I believe is innocent) and some of those mentioned above were initially supportive of nominating DeanWinchester and were also quick to correctly suspect Sparks as mafia.
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