Mini 472 - Cartman Mafia - Game Over

[Estes]

Estes: Did you breadcrumb that you are a cop? Looking back through I don't really see anything showing me info you are a cop.

I was trying not to give myself away at all.

OtM: yeah man, I realize how it looks. I look scummy as crap. But, again if I was mafia why would I have jumped out then? I was just trying to save a guy my investigation said was innocent. Hopefully I'm not insane, or worse, random.

[Off the Mark]

Chaos, this part of your post:

It just so happens that one of the 2 people Sorin picked likely not to be scum happens to be the cop that investigated him night 1. It all just seems a little too conveinent.

conflicts with this part:

Suspicious? Yes. Obvious mafia move? No. From his join date, Estes is a fairly new player, he might have saw Sorin at L-1, and thought, "I know he's inncoent, I'll claim to save him." Hell, I made a mistake similar to that last game I played.

You seem quite wishy-washy here. Which do you believe is the truth?

[ryan]

Estes: Did you breadcrumb that you are a cop? Looking back through I don't really see anything showing me info you are a cop.

I was trying not to give myself away at all.

OtM: yeah man, I realize how it looks. I look scummy as crap. But, again if I was mafia why would I have jumped out then? I was just trying to save a guy my investigation said was innocent. Hopefully I'm not insane, or worse, random.

Sometimes (notice sometimes) players will breadcrumb in a game that they are cop (leave subtle hints that can be used later to prove you are who you say you are) I do like the point that if you WERE scum you would have been fine with a Sorin lynch and not tried to save him. I am starting to believe your claim but I'm not 100% sold (not calling you a liar it's just a weird time for you to jump in and try and save) Playing devil's advocate you could have done it to save a mafia partner as well. I'm keeping my vote right now and will wait to see what some of the other townies think.

[Off the Mark]

I do like the point that if you WERE scum you would have been fine with a Sorin lynch and not tried to save him.

I agree with this, if Sorin and Estes are both scum, it was foolish of Estes to try to do a last-ditch claim to save Sorin.

BUT it is also foolish for a cop to do a last-ditch claim to save an innocent townie. It is far more important for a cop (especially a 2nd cop who we probably can't protect) to stay hidden than to prevent a townie lynch. The correct move would have been to breadcrumb Sorin's innocence and then not claimed until Estes had a guilty investigation. Now he's exposed himself for very little gain. Even if he were successful in preventing Sorin's lynch, we still have a very good chance of lynching a townie on Day 1, so it's just not worth it for a cop to claim at this point, just to protect an innocent. And then you take sanity issues into account, and that's another reason for him to stay quiet.

So either way, Estes was foolish to claim. We need to go ahead and lynch Sorin to sort this out. If Sorin is innocent, and J-man does the sanity check on Zeek, we could have two confirmed cops on Day 2 and that would be well worth one townie's death.

[ZeekLTK]

I say investigate Chaos because I'm not sure about him.

This is what I think should happen:

j-man investigates me to check his sanity.

doctor protects j-man to make sure he's still alive on Day 2 so we get the result of this.

"real cop" (if there is one) investigates ChaosOmega to see if he is really tied in with this or if Sorin just threw his name in there to implicate him for some reason. I'm a little more certain that he is in with them after his last response - It's pretty clear I'm a miller and pro-town but he's still trying to make a case against me... that's similar to Sorin saying the claimed cop and claimed vanilla are his biggest suspects.



And also I want to point out, again, that this is an incredibly anti-town move to claim cop when we're fairly confident that j-man is a cop and we need to test his sanity by having him investigate me. So the ONLY person we need to make sure stays alive is him, and the only way to do that is to have the doctor protect him.

So when Estes comes in and says "the doctor better save me tonight"... that's a major anti-town move.

[ryan]

Zeek: Let me ask you this, would Estes be a better lynch than Sorin?

[Estes]

It's pretty clear I'm a miller and pro-town

Clear because you say so? Oh ok.

Wanting to kill a cop isn't very pro-town, either.

And, doctor protect whoever you want, me or J-man. If we're lucky the mafia will pick the same one you do.

[ryan]

Estes: Who should be lynched today IF Sorin is really town?

[Estes]

Dean.

[ryan]

Dean.

I could be pursuaded to do a Dean vote BUT what case do you have on him?

[Estes]

The fact that he was all over me for not wanting to vote Earwig; and as soon as we start calling him out on it(and asking him questions) he's suddenly "busy".

That's all the argument I'll make. I don't really care what y'all do(I don't wanna be replaced though, I like the game...just not the fact that nobody believes me). I hate being called a liar. And another thing, going back to my episode(1010) if I wasn't a cop why would I pick that one? That is easily gonna be on the short list of choices for cop(a lot more than 813(J-man's). I would have picked something I was 100% positive wasn't assigned.

My suspect list(because I'll probably die soon):

Zeek (how convenient he claimed miller)
Gatorguy (guilty so far...maybe Zeek is trying to save him)
Dean (already said my case above)

[ryan]

Gatorguy: Who is our best lynch today?

[ChaosOmega]

Off the Mark: The second part you quoted said that I found it suspicious, but it wasn't a 100% certainty that it was an obvious mafia move. The first part said that I found the whole thing suspicious. Where do you see a conflict?

[Off the Mark]

Chaos: OK, I guess that makes sense. It just seemed odd you said "the whole thing is suspicious" but then you went on to give a pretty extensive defense of Estes, saying "he could have mistakenly done this..." Seemed kinda like scum who was waiting to see which way the wind was going to blow, then you can look like you were always on board.

[ZeekLTK]

Zeek: Let me ask you this, would Estes be a better lynch than Sorin?

I guess I would say Sorin because there is a slim chance that Estes is a cop, so if we're wrong it's better to just lose a townie than a cop. But I'd say I'm fairly sure Estes is not a cop so it doesn't matter that much.

It's pretty clear I'm a miller and pro-town

Clear because you say so? Oh ok.

No, not because I "say so".... we already went over this.

By saying I'm going to give a guilty that means I'm either a miller or mafia. I wouldn't do this if I was a town who got innocent because there is no benefit to that, so I have to be miller or mafia. Me revealing as miller helps the town in several ways such as j-man can confirm his insanity, Gatorguy, a likely townie, is not lynched, etc. Even if Gatorguy is not town, me revealing will help us figure that out.

There is nothing anti-town about my reveal (if there is I'd like to hear it) so I don't see how anyone can suspect me as possibly being mafia any more. If anything, it just looks more suspicious on the parts of those who do try to make a case against me.


Also your role doesn't make sense. In the episode, looking at it as though Dawg Cartman is a cop, he gets guilty on innocent people (Butters) AND on guilty people (the teacher)*. So if anything, you would be a paranoid cop. However, you claim you got an innocent result. Dawg never got an innocent result in the episode, so that doesn't add up.

*This is opposed to j-man's where that Cartman gets guilty results on innocent people and does not get guilty when he actually comes up against the real guilty person, which is why I am inclined to believe he is an insane cop.

[ryan]

J-Man: Any thoughts? Who in your opinion is our best lynch today?

[Off the Mark]

There is nothing anti-town about my reveal (if there is I'd like to hear it) so I don't see how anyone can suspect me as possibly being mafia any more. If anything, it just looks more suspicious on the parts of those who do try to make a case against me.

Well, it's not so much that the reveal is anti-town, but "miller" is a convenient excuse for scum. Especially scum who has been investigated, or thinks they are likely to be investigated. That being said, I don't think that's what you are doing here, but it is possible.

[Estes]

It's pretty clear I'm a miller and pro-town

Clear because you say so? Oh ok.

No, not because I "say so".... we already went over this.

By saying I'm going to give a guilty that means I'm either a miller or mafia. I wouldn't do this if I was a town who got innocent because there is no benefit to that, so I have to be miller or mafia. Me revealing as miller helps the town in several ways such as j-man can confirm his insanity, Gatorguy, a likely townie, is not lynched, etc. Even if Gatorguy is not town, me revealing will help us figure that out.

There is nothing anti-town about my reveal

(if there is I'd like to hear it)

so I don't see how anyone can suspect me as possibly being mafia any more. If anything, it just looks more suspicious on the parts of those who do try to make a case against me.

Ok, here goes...

You claimed that "if anyone investigates me, I'll be guilty because I'm a miller." That can easily be translated into, "I'm mafia but I claimed miller so when you do finally investigate me I'll say I appeared guilty because of my 'miller' role.(and you'll also buy Gatorguy another day)" You also can say(when you do turn up guilty) "ok let's kill Gatorguy, J-man is sane"(or if it works out that you appear innocent, you can say don't kill Gator, J-man is insane - which would make Gator the Godfather). So, then after Gatorguy's death you'll appear to be pro-town(and if J-man actually is insane you'll both appear to be townies and can dictate the game). It's quite ingenious on your part...yes you lose one mafia member(unless Gator is the Godfather) but you're setting the scum up to always have at least one person the town thinks is with them...thus letting at least one mafia make it to the end for the win.

I cannot believe I'm the only one who sees this as a possibility.

However, you claim you got an innocent result. Dawg never got an innocent result in the episode, so that doesn't add up.

Blame Stewie there. I just report what I get.

[Gatorguy91]

Don't lynch Sorin...he's ok. I investigated him night one.

I'm the Dawg, episode 1010.

If there is a doctor...you better save me.

FoS: Estes

K, Lemme Get this straight. There are 2 mafias/mafia & sk, a miller, and 2 cops in A MINI. '

Really this just sounds like a way to possibly protect scumbuddies and get J-man killed tonight.

[Estes]

There's no reason to FOS me. I think that's a given at this point.

[ZeekLTK]

It's a given that you're mafia?

[Estes]

No, it's a given everyone is suspicious of me.

Also are you ignoring my other post? I would assume that means I'm correct and you're just hoping everyone forgets.

[ZeekLTK]

All you did was make a wild accusation that isn't true so I didn't feel a need to respond to it.

Okay I'll bite: that is a very remote possibility, but I am not affiliated with Gatorguy at all in this game. I would have done the same (reveal my role) as soon as j-man mentioned any sanity issues no matter who the guilty result came out on.

Given the recent "cop" claim... I kind of want to hear why ryan had Estes listed as "town" earlier in the game.

And I am still trying to figure out why he had me listed as well because I think that was before I claimed my role...

[SorintheSeeker]

Hmm. Well, I doubt anyone is going to listen to what I have to say though I appreciate one last post I guess. I don't really listen to anything my top mafia suspects say usually. It sucks that the game won't end for 2 months and by then if anyone even looks back at this they'll just think "stupid newbie he played terrible + ruined it for us" or something.


RE: whatever someone was saying with the claimed cop/miller whatever stuff... I was not aware that those two were the ones that had claimed that. Yes I read everything, but it's been over two weeks and there's so many new names and claims arguments going back and forth that some of this stuff goes over my head. It doesn't help that when people use all these terms I'm not familiar with and crazy logic and statements that just aren't concise and are hard to digest for me personally. Also I admit sometimes I skim over stuff like that.


I suppose I should have analyzed all the arguments and counter-arguments and stuff when coming up with a list but that's not what I did. How I got my suspicions was when I read through the posts I put a + by someone's name if they say something I agree with or I think is logical and intelligent and not suspicious, and I put a - by their name if they say something scummy that doesn't make sense or looks suspicious. Then I save it in notepad. Here's my list as of now:

ChaosOmega + -
DeanWinchester -
Earwig -
Estes +
Gatorguy91 - - -
J-man + - - -
Off the Mark - - - - -
ryan - + -
SorintheSeeker
ZeekLTK -


Which is where I got the "most" and "least" suspicious from. Next game I play I'll also write down who claimed what roles by their name lol. If I am still around, could someone summarize the claims and stuff? I know someone summarized the entire game post by post, and I really appreciate that, but it is a little long. Also I know that if I were to do something like that I would slightly slant my summaries with my own opinions and biases so I didn't want to read that in case it was. (Not saying it was or the person didn't do a great job summarizing, just saying it's a possibility.)


As for my vote, I'm going to simply vote for whoever has the second most # of votes in a vain effort to save myself. So I'm going to

unvote; vote DeanWinchester.

It's highly possible this round could go on for another week+, so if that's the case I'll change it to someone else should anything change, but since I'm so close to being lynched might as well put it there for now.

[Off the Mark]

Sorin - granted, you may just be playing badly instead of actually being scum. But when someone acts scummy, you gotta lynch them, or else everyone can use that excuse.

Your plus/minus system needs serious work. I haven't earned a single "+" despite all my Zeek/J-man analysis? I even watched the freakin' episode and determined that J-man is most likely insane and still, not a single "+". Obviously you have some bias issues. I am guessing your bias is that you are scum.