Open Countdown! Mini 487! GAME OVER!

[Mgm]

I can't stand it when people hack proper spelling:

Vote: d3sisted

I've got my eye on the Ninja. Those can kill ya.

[Mgm]

Fine, in that case I'll vote you for crap spelling

and

being 3rd on the player list.

[Mgm]

And let's not forget about the dangers of dogs. curiouskarmadog
could be a dangerous force to be recogned with.

[Mgm]

Vote: curiouskarmadog

[Mgm]

I clearly said why I chose curiouskarmadog. I'll quote the post below for your convenience. Since d3sisted is dead, I considered it useful to switch my vote and not let it sit on a dead body - especially since we're on a time table. If we lynch after the serial killer kills, he gets another kill; at least that is how I understood the rule.

And let's not forget about the dangers of dogs. curiouskarmadog
could be a dangerous force to be recogned with.

[Mgm]

I'm of the opinion that the SK has posted already.

How did you come to that conclusion?

[Mgm]

MGM you mentioned the dangers of dogs before the kill was announced. So do you have any after kill explanation for your vote?

I mentioned him as a possible suspect and since the first suspect I mentioned died, I had an unused vote lying around. I might as well place it somewhere and since my hunch on d3sisted was correct, I might as well continue to trust my hunches for the time being.

The SK only wins if he is the last person standing and neither team achieves their win condition. So if the SK kills a Mafia, there is only 3 left. If he keeps killing them, or if the town starts lynching them, the game could end quickly in a town victory and an SK loss.

Even with all the mafia killed, the SK can still pull off a win. Dead mafia doesn't necessarily equate to a town win.

I think it's in the SK's best interest to lynch mafia to avoid being the victim of some scum-guided lynch. It's in the mafia's best interest to get us to vote the SK. Because every week the SK is alive, they run the risk of being killed and getting one step further away from winning - as d3sisted's dead so nicely demonstrates.

Also, by killing townies, the SK brings the mafia closer to a win (with the whole outnumbering rule. In short: they should kill each other off and only worry about the townies at the last possible minute.

[Mgm]

I'm of the opinion that the SK has posted already.

How did you come to that conclusion?

Again, more of just a hunch. Pooky isn't able to check the thread very much which makes me believe that the SK sent in his kill a little while ago but he just got it. Just a hunch, I admit, but a good one I think.

I have another hunch. I think the SK didn't post and tries to look like they were away when the choice was made. I've already got my eyes on the late players.

[Mgm]

MGM you mentioned the dangers of dogs before the kill was announced. So do you have any after kill explanation for your vote?

I mentioned him as a possible suspect and since the first suspect I mentioned died, I had an unused vote lying around. I might as well place it somewhere and since my hunch on d3sisted was correct, I might as well continue to trust my hunches for the time being.

Unvote: Kinetic

Vote: MGM

We are on page two. None of us have said very much yet, and all the votes up to this point have been random. We are all possible suspects. Why does he merit special attention here? He had a whole two posts when you first mentioned him as a "possible suspect." Your vote on d3sisted seemed to be a joking random vote which just happened to get lucky, as he hadn't posted anything when you voted for him. Then he voted for you. I'm weary of "hunches" that are formed without anything to back them up.

It should be pretty clear that my vote was random/arbitrary too. I didn't say the vote was based on a hunch. My hunch was about whether the SK posted.

[Mgm]

Why did you feel the need to ask that question?

[Mgm]

which one?

This one: "Why did you pick Raffles over HazzelQ?"

[Mgm]

So what's your method for picking someone to pressure?

[Mgm]

I have noted that HazzelQ has been posting in other threads, not this one yet…so again a pressure vote to get you talking.

So did Raffles. He posted extensively in Carthage mafia on Saturday. He could've posted here.

[Mgm]

But it is the only answer he's gonna give you. Or did you expect him to admit to being a scumbag?

[Mgm]

Stewie correctly identified it as a dead end question. I don't see the problem.
There's no problem with answering someone else's questions when there's only one likely answer they'd give (regardless of what their intentions are).

Another example, if I ask you to claim, it would be perfectly all right for someone else to point out you'd claim townie. There's no other claim, unless the SK can convince us he wants to help kill the mafia, but I for one would lynch him on the spot if it doesn't make us lose instantly.

[Mgm]

Stewie correctly identified it as a dead end question. I don't see the problem.
There's no problem with answering someone else's questions when there's only one likely answer they'd give (regardless of what their intentions are).

Another example, if I ask you to claim, it would be perfectly all right for someone else to point out you'd claim townie. There's no other claim, unless the SK can convince us he wants to help kill the mafia, but I for one would lynch him on the spot if it doesn't make us lose instantly.

You are wrong, there are several answers he could have given...(as I have stated before)..I wanted to see what he had to say...but Stewie obligated to answer it for him.

Several answers? Name one then.

[Mgm]

I missed post 46 because it was a near simulpost. Yes, a grudge from a previous game would be a valid reason.

[Mgm]

We should start focussing. If we don't have a lynch target by the deadline, we're losing the town headstart the dead scum got us.

[Mgm]

In that case we should do more talking so we can analyze each other's posts.

[Mgm]

Could you also help us beat the deadline and put in a vote?

[Mgm]

I think the mafia is the bigger threat. They win sooner.
If we get rid of the mafia, we have more time to find the serial killer, so I think we should focus on finding mafia, but really - finding any scum is a step forward.

[Mgm]

What do you mean by that MGM?

I was assuming HazzelQ was jeep, but now it appears they share the account - or jeep did some testing to figure out why it wasn't working. I'm trying to get people to agree so we can have a lynch before the deadline hits. It's not working very well.

[Mgm]

Unvote:curiouskarmadog

[Mgm]

... no reason?

Of course there is a reason. But I'm quite happy to hold it under my hat right now.

[Mgm]

But then again, I recieved mine late as well so I'm inclined to believe it...

I find that hard to believe. It's quite unlikely the mod mistyped your name when he sent out roles. When did you receive your role PM?

[Mgm]

Is it metagaming to point out that HazzelQ is almost certainly not the SK?

Unless you think Jeep was collaberating with her, she has an alibi; she can't have sent the pm, since she didn't even know she was in the game. She could still be mafia, of course.

Yes, it's metagaming, but not necessarily

bad

metagaming.

[Mgm]

this seems very anti-town to me. Seems like he has information that he does not want to share with the town. Shouldn’t you provide the information to help the town?

If I explain myself I help the mafia/SK more than the town.

At any rate, I think he has had the scummiest plays and posts thus far.

That's easy, apart from perhaps yourself, I made the most posts in the game, it's easy to see something scummy in that.

[Mgm]

Second, MGM, quantity of posts does not necessarily mean that theres more of a chance to act scummy. Somebody could act very very very scummy with just one or two posts (like an early attempt at a hammer or the like). I don't see how this is a point in your favor.

You'd better read my post again, because that's not what I said. I said:

At any rate, I think he has had the scummiest plays and posts thus far.

That's easy, apart from perhaps yourself, I made the most posts in the game, it's easy to see something scummy in that.

More posts mean someone has more material to work with and naturally will see more things they consider scummy. That said, more posts DOES lead to more chances to act scummy which is why lurkers are so often pushed to contribute; if they don't say anything there's no chance of them slipping up. How that works in my favor? It probably doesn't, but it wasn't supposed to. It was supposed to make CKD think.

Suppose for a moment that I wasn't in the game. Would you have enough evidence to vote someone non-randomly by now? If not, that's clearly due to the lack of posts.

P.S. Yes Raffles, I can explain and I will in my next post.

[Mgm]

In CKD's post, I feel point 3 is the only valid one.
1) As you say, a weak argument. When was the last time you saw this distancing tactic (random vote each other day one) work? If it does anything it draws attention rather than create distance. For HazzelQ who considered me the SK: the first thing people do after someone dies is check who they voted and who voted them. How could that possibly work as a cover up if I'm top of both lists?

2)

he “random” voted someone who happened to be mafia on a hunch..what sort of hunch can someone get 3 posts into the game when his hunchie has not even posted yet?

A random hunch, which you obviously think can't exist.

So now he has a hunch about me? That is crap logic.

It's only crap logic if you try to make out it's more than luck.

I now think that he got lucky when the SK killed d3sisted with MGM’s vote on him. Now he is trying to convince us that his hunches find scum...that I think is scummy.

I only remember saying that since my first vote was right, I might as well go with my instinct for the next; the only one I'm trying to convince is myself. Trying to convince people I'm trying to convince them when I'm not is scummier.
3) Yes, I contradicted myself. That was due to the fact I didn't reread on what I said earlier before I posted. It proves I have the memory of a dodo.
4)CKD said that his reason to vote HQ was "I have noted that HazzelQ has been posting in other threads, not this one yet…so again a pressure vote to get you talking." I certainly did imply something there; you didn't vote Raffles for some reason even though the same rule applied to him. He too posted in another thread and not here. The fact he was on holiday to the 15th means HazzelQ was around more often and is more guilty of it, but that shouldn't give Raffles a free pass.
5) I'm antsy all right! We're on a deadline and if nothing happens and the SK doesn't stay on target in killing mafia, we're toast after a mere 4 death townies. Don't you think a townie would get restless with an impending deadline?
6) Already explained in post 101.

[Mgm]

I'm of the opinion that the SK has posted already.

How did you come to that conclusion?

Again, more of just a hunch. Pooky isn't able to check the thread very much which makes me believe that the SK sent in his kill a little while ago but he just got it. Just a hunch, I admit, but a good one I think.

In post 66 Mirth shows around half the people posted before and half the people posted after the kill. If you believe it took Pooky time to process the kill, it does nothing to improve the odds of the killer posting. Those odds remained the same.

[Mgm]

You can consider it a claim if you want - it's true. It was actually meant to show that restlessness wasn't as scummy as CKD implied.

I was hoping pushing forward would get us past the random voting stage quickly and get at least some info to base a lynch on. The quicker that happens the better. The longer we wait, the longer the SK can keep killing and the longer the mafia can guide us into faulty lynches. It's better to stop that sooner than later.

Not having a lynch actually starts to sound like a good option. We don't have enough information to make well thought out decision despite my efforts which has too much chance of resulting in a mislynch.

[Mgm]

So now you claim vanilla townie and decide to abandon your plan to come to a quick lynch? Why- because the focus is on you! please.

I didn't plan to come to a "quick lynch" - that's usually a synonym for rush job. I wanted the town to come to a lynch before the deadline hit. As CKD said, we don't have enough active players and I don't see that improving in the next two days, that's why I'm abandoning the idea. Unless something major happens (like someone claiming scum), we're not going to get a well-informed lynch.

As for the claim, someone asked me if it was a claim. So I just agreed to spill the beans. It's not likely someone is going to claim something else, so it has absolutely no weight at all - one way or the other.

[Mgm]

It was random. I voted him because someone with a name like that had to be scum. He didn't post yet so there was nothing else to base it on.

By the way, his name is HazzelQ, not HazzelIQ.

[Mgm]

HazzleIQ - as I understand it, we are not under pressure for any deadline at all. As I understand it, nightless means mafia gets no nightkills. Then the only person that has an ability to 100% control who to kill is a SK. This gives rise to an importance of swift and accurate lynching of SK, because this increases town's survival by a lot.

The rules state that the SK can perform a kill after a lynch occurs or if at least a week passed since the last lynch. We can basically consider the period this kill occurs to be night, so we're actually on a week-long deadline from the moment a kill happens.

[Mgm]

we are more likely to hit non-SK, and to give SK a free kill on top of it, which seems to be what you are trying to advocate.

No, I'm not. I changed my mind due to the lack of activity. HazzelQ even found my change of heart scummy.

So now you claim vanilla townie and decide to abandon your plan to come to a quick lynch? Why- because the focus is on you! please.

I didn't plan to come to a "quick lynch" - that's usually a synonym for rush job. I wanted the town to come to a lynch before the deadline hit. As CKD said, we don't have enough active players and I don't see that improving in the next two days, that's why I'm abandoning the idea. Unless something major happens (like someone claiming scum), we're not going to get a well-informed lynch.

[Mgm]

That's correct.

[Mgm]

I just don't understand the sudden change in heart. I know Mirth mentioned her reasons for a no-lynch, were they that convincing to you?

Have you been reading my posts? I explained why I had a change of heart. Once, maybe even twice.

[Mgm]

At the moment, I find MGM more suspicious as possible scum rather than serial killer

'Scum' is the collective noun that describes all evil non-town roles. So I think you meant to say that "you found me [Mgm] suspicious as possible mafia, rather than serial killer."

[Mgm]

im sorry i have not posted ill have something by tommorrow i promise

That was the Ninja's first and only post in the game and I didn't see any post yesterday that showed he kept that promise.

Here's a vote that hopefully discourages him from lurking:

Vote:The Deepfried Ninja

FOS: deepsouth

With 2 posts you're not much better, I didn't even remember you were playing until I perused the opening post.

[Mgm]

I also don't realy understeand your vote on DeepFriedNinja. Sure, he hasn't posted, but it was the weekend, so that might be a reason for it.

The game started on the 11th - that is 9 days ago. Not being able to post doesn't explain why he has just one post in over a week.

[Mgm]

EBWOP: I meant to say:
"Not being able to post

in the weekend

doesn't explain why he has just one post in over a week."

[Mgm]

How does killing M4yham speed up the MGM lynch?

Try reading post 154 by Mirth. He explained it quite a lot of detail.

[Mgm]

Well, this is inaccurate or an out and out lie. Please post where MGM jokingly targeted M4yham. He jokingly target d3sisted and me.

I voted d3sisted for crappy spelling. It's not too much of a jump to think I'd have similar ideas about M4yhem.

[Mgm]

CKD. Stop harrassing Kinetic. If I do indeed end up dead, you'll find out I'm not scum with him.

to me, it looks like he is defending MGM...by stating that the SK is framing MGM is a ploy to either get votes off of his scumbuddy or stop more votes compliing. I do not trust anybody enough in this game to defend anyone yet. Looks like Kinetic is sticking his neck out there for MGM by posting this comment. Why?

You conveniently forget all the other combinations that could explain his actions:
1. He could be scum latching on to a townie he knows to be innocent.
2. I could be scum with him defending me incorrectly. (I know it happens because I did it with at least 2 of the 3 scum in Mafia 60)
3. We could both be innocent.
You already decided I'm guilty, so you immediately find Kinetic scummy even though you don't have any evidence to back it up.

Think for a moment. How would defending me help either of us? If we're really scum, it ensures the death of not one but two members, leaving just one to do the job. Besides, it's not my style to have someone else bail me out. Read some of my earlier games.

[Mgm]

The switch had to be sudden. With only a single week between kills, it doesn't leave us with the amount of time you'd normally associate with a non-scummy change of heart.

[Mgm]

MGM: What is wrong with harrassing ANYONE (note: maybe apart from a confirmed innocent) in a mafia game? It's a way to get them talk, and I sure gained a lot more insight on kinetic than I had before.

You may want to look up the meaning of the word. Harrassing anyone is a bad thing. There's no point in making him talk, because Kinetic is one of the few people actually talking already.

I'm opposing it especially because your attack on him is based on a faulty premise. I'm not scum, so he can't be my scum buddy and you'll see that when I'm dead. If you'd like to push that idea and you're really convinced I'm scum, wait till I'm actually dead before you proceed with the accusations.

I still don't have an answer from anyone how questioning my wagon makes Kinetic scum and how me killing d3sisted would qualify as a cover up. [post 174]

[Mgm]

Ok, I have two things to add:

After that I'm even more convinced that the SK is trying to frame MGM. HazzleQ seems like the best suspect imo.

Kinetics post (...)
I'd like to know exactly why he thinks Hazzel is the best suspect.

At this point I'm most suspicious of HazzleQ, but there are other people on my radar.

One thing to remember is that there are two scum groups and both of them have information that the town would like to have.

Wow, the way you put those quotes, almost seemed like that was an exchange between me and Mirth. However those "two" posts by me were from the same post, and the one from Mirth was from a little while back.

I'm going to check on this to make sure Kinetic is right, but that's definitely worth a

FOS: HazzelQ

.

[Mgm]

Mod:

Can you prod some players and - if needed - get in replacements?

[Mgm]

he discuss meaningless things (IMO to stall),

I'm discussing meaningless things? Now you're just being silly. It's fine you find my ideas weird, it's okay to disagree with me, but claiming I'm stalling is plain wrong. I'm doing everything I can to get meaningful discussion started.

Are you talking about my idea the mafia is more dangerous than the SK?

[Mgm]

Why should he, MGM? Yes your areguements are valid, but harrassing = more information = good.

There's a thread about this in the mafia discussion forum. Pressure tactics often get responses, but they're not always how the player would usually respond (town or scum). Pressure of that kind can get people in a defensive mode. A defensive attitude can be a sign of scumminess, but it's useless when it's the action to procure info that brought it on in the first place.

Compare it to a situation where you ask someone to claim then vote them for claiming early.

I think there are more subtle and better ways to get information.

[Mgm]

(MGM are you willing to share yet?)

No, not yet. It would still help the scum more than it would help the town.

[Mgm]

That's not entirely true. There are several things I know and the rest of you don't and if you don't have an idea about what those things could possibly I'm not going to enlighten you. Your cluelessness is exactly what I want the scum to be stuck with.

[Mgm]

Come on people! Step up the pace. We're heading for the SK's killing day again.

[Mgm]

An extension would be nice anyway since we need those replacements to make headway.

[Mgm]

With 2 more days to go, I don't see anyone else qualify as lynch target and I'm obviously not going to vote myself.

Vote: HazzelQ

If by some miracle things start happening before the next SK target falls. I'd be happy to lynch the present-but-not-posting players who are keeping us from reaching a lynch.

[Mgm]

Stewie made 12 posts in this game (only slightly less than you) and he's been actively sharing his thoughts and questioning people. I don't see how that qualifies as lurking.

What does SiS stand for?

[Mgm]

I've been repeatedly asking him to contribute (without expressing this on purpose)

If you want something you should express it, so things are abundantly clear.

I still don't see it. Post 212, 194, etc... None of these say lurking or any kind of non-contribution to me.

[Mgm]

Vote count please

[Mgm]

It sorta defies the point of catching him lurking if I make it abundantly clear...

So you weren't trying to make him contribute, you were just trying to make an accusation of lurking stick.

FOS: Raffles

[Mgm]

After the first failure to lynch, in a large part down to a complete lack of discussion from some people, I expected the next week would be better. I was wrong.

Heather called me scummy for changing my opinion, but she never helped to get us a lynch in the first place when we still had plenty of time to get one. The last vote I saw of Heather was August 14, that's right about the first day (circa 2 days in) - no votes since.

Not lynching 'yesterday' was not all that bad. After all we were lacking information to make an informed decision, but that is no excuse not to lynch 'today'. We know what slowness leads to, so we should know better than to get into the same situation again. The only way to beat the SK (and the mafia) is decide on a lynch. If we don't, we're sitting ducks, and we'll get picked off one by one.

[Mgm]

... while I think we do need to figure out who the SK is and quickly, I'd rather have something solid to go on before we kill anyone. My premise is that anybody who is completely sure or seems completely sure of a lynch suspect seems to be more suspicious since only 4 people here know something the rest of us dont.

I disagree. With someone getting killed every week, we can't afford to wait to hit something 'solid' before we lynch. We'd be dead long before it happens. A reasonable suspicion should be enough to lynch like it is in any other game.

Besides what kind of solid thing are you hoping for? There are no cop investigations and no useful roleclaims (everyone would claim townie).

[Mgm]

178. MGM says the switch had to be sudden and that with 1 week between kills there isnt enough time for a "nonscummy change of heart."
(Doesn't address the lack of reasoning for switch though.)

It's all in the timing. If we don't get close to a lynch by Friday/Saturday anything after that would be a rush job. That's when not lynching became a good idea.

180. MGM says no point in making Kinetic talk since he's already talking, says the premise of harassing Kinetic is faulty as he (MGM) is not scum. Asks for an answer about how questioning wagon makes Kinetic scum and how MGM killing d3sisted would be a coverup.

Why didn't you comment on this? I'm still waiting for an answer and no one gave it.

204. MGM says he's still not willing to share the reason for his unvote of CKD back in the beginning of the game, because it would help the scum more.
(Would you care to explain why it would help the scum more, at least?)

No, I don't.

215. MGM points out that Stewie posted almost as much as Raffles and has been sharing his opinions.
(Which is note entriely true. Stewie, while sharing, hasn't ben substantiating.)

There's been a lot of non-substantiating going on (see 180), but not doing so is a far cry from lurking.
231+232: Mirth actually gets it. Still no idea why, Raffles?

239. MGM says after the first no lynch he expected a lynch the second week, but was wrong, says that Heather called him scummy but hasn't been helpful. Says we need a lynch now.
(MGM, you're currently voting Hazzel, how sure are you of that?)

Sure enough to vote.

[Mgm]

xyzzy replaces Ninja

That was 6 days ago. Can we have a prod on him, Pooky?

[Mgm]

Non-voters:

heatherlou
Mirth
xyzzy (replaces The Deepfried Ninja)

Mirth posted a lot, but apparently feels no need to take control and have a go at lynching scum. heatherlou is just plain lurking and xyzzyy didn't do much more than the Ninja.

MEGAFOS to all of them. If they don't post in the next 36 hours, I implore you all to consider voting them to get em talking.

[Mgm]

Actually, make that 24 hours. I don't want to see a no lynch on sunday again.

[Mgm]

Does that mean we can finally have a lynch?

[Mgm]

Lynching on Sunday morning is cutting it too close. With time zones and all that it is easy to be late. I'd much rather have a lynch occur on Saturday night or Saturday afternoon.

[Mgm]

Anything is better than another no lynch.

[Mgm]

when we lynch, that Daykilled is really sped up isnt it?

If we continually derail lynches the only person who wins is the Serial Killer. Lynching is the only way the town gets concrete information.

This together with post 299 -->

Unvote: HazzelQ; Vote: curiouskarmadog

You don't actively discourage lynching if you're town. Especially not when the mafia is such a threat compared to the SK.

[Mgm]

I agree, both those situations look dire; that's why we should've taken control and started lynching ages ago when this scenario could've been avoided to begin with.

The thing is not lynching is even worse than lynching wrong. If we want any chance of hitting the SK, we need to do it ourselves, because the SK is not going to do it himself. And if we don't do it before the mafia gains majority, we will need to keep him alive, despite the kills because we'd instantly lose to the mafia otherwise.

Hence my earlier claim that the mafia is more dangerous than the SK. If they successfully lynch the SK in the next day or 2 without being hit themselves, they win. While the SK still has a long way to go before they can even think of the win.

[Mgm]

CKD, you know as well as anyone else that the SK has no intention of helping anyone by taking your dare.

[Mgm]

THIS...IS...A...LIE.

That quote reminds me of Professor Umbridge from the Harry Potter books. You really don't want me to make such connections by saying stuff like that.

And if you still believe we should go after the SK with the mafia standing ready to overpower us, I don't see how it is possible to win...

[Mgm]

It sounds like a ploy to come across as town and I care because I know that goading has the opposite effect: the SK won't do it. He doesn't care much who dies, but he can cause both me and Kinetic a lot of grief if he doesn't do it.

[Mgm]

MGM: so you're saying we should keep the SK alive for now? Why exactly?

9 people alive: 3 mafia, 1 SK and 5 townies. If the SK dies, there's a significant chance of the town losing to the mafia because all it takes is two wrong lynches. Allowing the SK to stay alive means he can (willingly or not) kill off mafia.

If he leaves too much mafia alive, the mafia can gang up on the SK with their collected votes and kill him for the win. (Especially, if they can convince a few townies to join in).

[Mgm]

Yes, I understand that, but, as he should theoretically have an easier time avoiding a lynch (there is only one of him, after all, and he's not aiming for a majority), he should be able to hide better, so leaving him alive isn't something I want to aim for.

If the alternative is losing to the mafia, I DO want to aim for it.

[Mgm]

Why wait an entire day if you still have at least 12 hours to do it today?
We can't afford to wait.

[Mgm]

MGM: That's a nasty gamble you are taking. What if SK hits town instead of mafia? Then town are put into a worse position.

Right now, the mafia is on the brink of winning. If the SK dies we can afford one (or 2?) mislynch(es) before we lose. If the SK remains alive, 7 people can die before we lose to the SK. Yes, we run the risk of losing, but I'd rather take my chances with the second scenario than the first.

[Mgm]

Hello? Anyone? We can't afford to go silent.
Talk. Vote. Lynch!

[Mgm]

Just Sunday. Thinking about a time is cutting it too close.

[Mgm]

MGM: Right now I'm really not sure what to make of you with you keeping the SK alive strategy.

I think I explained it clearly enough. What's there not to get?

If we lynch the SK now, we can afford two mislynches (non-mafia) before it's over. If we leave him alive, we can afford the death of 6 people (3 kills, 3 lynches) before we're toast. The SK can't doublecross us, because leaving mafia alive would threaten his own win.

Do I have to tell you which scenario has the better chances?

[Mgm]

VC:
4 HazzelQ(Kinetic, MGM, Stewie HeatherLou)
1 MGM ( HazzelQ)
1 Kinetic(CuriousKarmaDog)

There's your vote count, post 298. Since then Mirth voted Kinetic and Kinetic and I voted CKD.

[Mgm]

On you. But I fail to see how that is relevant.
You asked when the deadline was, so I told you.
Let's talk about the people who are stalling by not voting AT ALL.

[Mgm]

I'd prefer a CKD lynch, but if that doesn't happen, I'll drop a vote on HazzelQ.

pretty much someone needs to put forth a case..

I have plenty of times against Kinetic...I feel like this is the smartest lynch right now.

I already put forth a case, otherwise I wouldn't have moved my vote.

[Mgm]

Ah heck.

Unvote; Vote: HQ

[Mgm]

Why the heck should be wait? We can use the extra time to discuss.
What if the mod turns up tomorrow afternoon. That would be at least 12 hours wasted.

[Mgm]

While it may help I think it isnt very reasonable to rely on the benevelance of the SK and then hope to catch him.

It would be in the SK's best interest to kill the mafia, because if the mafia gains a majority, the SK's chances of winning, or even surviving will be very slim indeed.

[Mgm]

Where my vote goes tomorrow depends on what Hazzel turns up as. If Hazzel is town, then I think Kinetic is most likely scum.

So HazzelQ turned up scum and you still find a reason to find him suspicious. That's scummy in my book.

FOS: Mirth

Why would Kinetic vote CKD? If he's really the SK that's suicide. No matter what his alignment turned out to be, it would've lead to Kinetic being voted.

Vote: Raffles

[Mgm]

Why I disagree with the comment on Mirth: Mirth wrote that Kinetic is most likely scum if HazQ turns up town. Does that mean opposite is true when HQ turns up scum? I think not. Some craplogic there.

I was trying to point out how that was "damned if you do, damned if you don't"-reasoning. If HazzelQ was town, he'd consider Kinetic scum. HazzelQ turns up scum? No problem, he can still produce a reason to vote him. I'm getting the feeling, he just wants Kinetic dead no matter what else happens.

[Mgm]

AmIright? AmIright?

No, it has nothing to do with Kinetic. Have another guess.

[Mgm]

Mirth, I'm not sure Kinetic isn't scum, I just feel there are better candidates to pursue.
If he really is the SK, killing CKD didn't help him one bit, so I don't see him doing it.

Raffles, I find your attitude towards lynching worrying. Yes, lynching can put us in a dire situation, but if we don't, we merely push forward the inevitable. At least lynching means we have a shot at killing scum.

[Mgm]

MGM: please read my analysis again regarding lynching. As long as nothing pops up that screams "I'm a scum!", it would help us to not to lynch this week.

Let's assume for a moment we don't lynch this week. How exactly is that going to help us next week?

[Mgm]

What I am wondering about is why he is so keen on no lynch when he believes it is imperative to get rid of the SK. If he really wanted to do that, he should be taking a more pro-active stance.

[Mgm]

I'm not believing Kinetic is town and I already told you earlier.
I just don't believe the attacks on him are valid and there are plenty of scummy people around.

I've done the maths, and statistically, there's not much difference between lynching and no lynching, but that doesn't take into account and important thing.
We now have 4 townies, 2 mafia and an SK. With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch and that's a number the townies could achieve on their own - with a bit of luck, agreement and no more lurking.

Mod, please get in some replacements and/or prods.

If we no lynch and the SK kills mafia (33%) there's no problem, but if he kills a townie (66%) we get 3 townies, 2 mafia and an SK. That is 6 alive, but still 4 to lynch. In that case, the town needs help from the scum and since the mafia will win with a townie lynch and have great chances with an SK lynch that means all we can hope for is help from the SK.

Also, if we lynch immediately, instead of no lynching first, there is an approximate chance of 14% that we lynch the SK and no longer have to deal with any kills. That chance doesn't improve if we no lynch first.

[Mgm]

Code: Select all

count    |lynch-skkill|nolynch-lynch|nolynchx2|
2T/2M/1SK|      20%   |      25%    |   30%   |
-----------------------------------------------
3T/1M/1SK|      40%   |      50%    |   60%   |
-----------------------------------------------
4T/0M/1SK|       7%   |     8.3%    |   10%   |
-----------------------------------------------
4T/2M/0SK|      33%   |       0%    |    0%   |
3T/2M/0SK|       0%   |     8.3%    |    0%   |
4T/1M/0SK|       0%   |     8.3%    |    0%   |

I see the 2T/2M/1SK as a losing situation for the town, so I don't want to go there. If we no lynch, the chance of it happening increases with 5%. It raises again when we run into a second no lynch either planned or due ot lack of activity - which admittedly, is quite possible.

If we lynch there's a 33% chance of ending up with a dead SK, as opposed to a 16-17% chance with a no lynch first and a 0% chance with two successive no lynches.

With a lynch there's a 40% chance of eradicating a scum group with the second kill. That chances tumbles to 25% with a no lynch first, and to just 10% with two no lynches in a row.

I would prefer no lynch scenario to townie death. Don't you think?

Yes, I'd rather have a no lynch instead of a dead townie, but I prefer lynching scum to both of those options. You're giving two bad options while ignoring a third, more profitable option.

Together with the fact we're having a hard enough time in getting enough active people together for a lynch now -let alone tomorrow- I think lynching sooner rather than later is the better option.

[Mgm]

You are the one who quoted the answer to Kinetic's question when I asked you how no lynch would help. That tells me the answer to that question was your personal opinion plus you maintain that nolynching is a good idea.

I see no evidence that that answer is different from your opinion.

[Mgm]

It appears xyzzy is lurking on purpose. He must've received a role PM, but he's posting everywhere but here.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... thor=xyzzy

He's one of the people I'd like to see replaced. We can't afford to have an inactive player around, no matter what his alignment is.

Anyway, since he replaced an inactive Deepfried Ninja, I think we can cross him of the SK suspect list.

[Mgm]

Okay.

Confirm vote: Raffles

[Mgm]

His last post anywhere was in this thread on August 18. (Xyzzy replaced on August 22). It was perfectly possible for Ninja to send in a kill before disapearing completely. Hence I'm not ruling Xyzzy out as the SK just yet. I very highly doubt he's mafia, as lurking isn't really helping the mafia, but I'm not writing of SK.

In that case both of them seem to be following the strategy of lurking themselves to a win in this particular thread. Since lurking gets them noticed, I'd argue that it wouldn't help them much as SK either, so if they're posting elsewhere, I wouldn't write off either role.

If xyzzy doesn't post or gets replaced, I'm going to vote him. I don't want a player around in end game whom I know nothing about.

[Mgm]

I believe the case against me presented by Kinetic is clearly to get some pressure off of him.

How exactly is that scummy? If I'm attacked I defend myself and, like Kinetic, try to get another wagon going. I do that when I'm scum, but I do it when I'm town too and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kinetic did the same.

[Mgm]

I attributed my suspicion of you mistakenly to you and CKD distancing, but your argument with him was genuine and thus even more disturbing.

A whole bunch of people found CKD suspicious. How is a genuine argument with a suspicious person scummy?

[Mgm]

What was it? The argument can't have been genuine and suspicious at the same time.

[Mgm]

Have a look in a dictionary under the entry 'genuine'.

[Mgm]

As 3. shows. Genuine means sincere, which by my book also means honest. If you are being honest about your philosophy, then by definition you don't have any ulterior motives.

[Mgm]

Yesterday, we had just 8 posts, half of them from me.
At this rate, we're gonna lose guaranteed.

[Mgm]

Well to be fair I couldn't be bothered to get into an heated argument of mutual exclucivity of genuine and suspicious... reading long posts.

There's plenty of other stuff to comment on. It's not a good reason to disappear for over 2 days.

Let's see if I can drum up some activity.

Unvote; vote: xyzzy

He clearly hasn't got the V/LA excuse Stewie mentioned, so I want to hear it from his own mouth why he isn't posting.

[Mgm]

I prodded Stewie and Xzyyz at the same time a while ago.

I pretty confident xyzzy isn't posting on purpose.

[Mgm]

Because he doesn't seem to have any activity problems in other threads.

I see no other reason why he'd be avoiding this thread in particular even after being prodded. It can't be that hard to do at least a partial reread, then post some opinions.

Sorry about not getting an actual first post in yet; I've had some issues with my computer. I'm on page 6; so far, no one seems extremely scummy. CKD is acting... strange.

This is his only post from August 29, almost 8 days ago. He was up until page 6 but didn't find anyone particularly scummy only called CKD strange. Mentions computer problems he doesn't have any more. We don't want someone with this amount of posts in the end game. If we don't lynch him, there's nothing to base a read on other than that single post.

[Mgm]

If you're so sure of Heather being scum, then Raffles and I can't possibly be partners.

That's clearly not true. You could be mafia together with heather as the SK. Whether that is a likely combo is another question, but it is possible and invalidates the point I quoted.

[Mgm]

Why say that now instead of making it the first response when you got voted? Now it just seems a last ditch effort to avoid suspicion.

[Mgm]

And yet you have time to be active in all your other games. Would you care to explain this?

A single outage yesterday doesn't explain why you were able to post elsewhere on the site and doesn't explain why it took you half a month to actually start posting.

[Mgm]

Your own participation hasn't been much better, Stewie.
I would've very much preferred if you shared your thoughts before locking in that vote.

[Mgm]

About what? Giving the SK ideas who to kill?

[Mgm]

About what? Giving the SK ideas who to kill?

...

does this mean you know xyzzy isn't a sk?

I was assuming the worst case scenario.

[Mgm]

No I brought up that vote count because Sk could have easily hammered at that point, but he didn't. It was mid-week, HQ was very scummy, so ideal condition. That's why I smell a definite SK in those 4.

That just sounds like a setup. Why would the SK hammer early? They have the time to wait, contrary to the town.

[Mgm]

And to speak in Dr. Phil terms. The best indicator of future behavior is past behavior. Up until a few pages ago, discussion was severely lacking. If the SK is scared of the additional discussion a 3-4 could cause, they're a wimp.

[Mgm]

Based on the posts I read from around that time, I think it was because HazzelQ was becoming scummier. I didn't want to put Hazzel on edge and make him more careful about what he said.

But then again, I recieved mine late as well so I'm inclined to believe it...

I find that hard to believe. It's quite unlikely the mod mistyped your name when he sent out roles. When did you receive your role PM?

I think Raffles tried to come across as unlikely SK here, by slipping this in.

[Mgm]

Mirth, the bit before the quote IS the answer to your question.

[Mgm]

Stewie, now would be a good time, why you were willing to lynch xyzzy after going silent for two days when you weren't really convinced he was scum. I missed substance.

[Mgm]

I want heatherlou and Stewie to tell me why I shouldn't lynch them. Kinetic has posted enough to analyse. You two haven't.

[Mgm]

Raffles is killed!

He was a Member of the Mafia!

Since he couldn't be mafia together with Mirth, I had him down as SK. Imagine my surprise. I guess it does explain why he didn't join the wagon on his buddy xyzzy.

[Mgm]

Vote: heatherlou

[Mgm]

As much as I didn't post much, I did contribute. I was the one who started the bandwagon on HazzelQ which eventually led to a lynch. A sk would more likely sit back and jump on someone else's suspicions or make several accusations, because the sk doesn't want to create links between him and other players.

Which is pretty much what you have done. Starting one bandwagon is not enough to say you contributed. You have been gone for days on end and together with heather you have the least posts.

[Mgm]

I don't feel that kinetic is the SK, cause I am almost positive he would have killed me any way he could have. <snip>
Mirth, I don't agree. Kinetic was pretty hard on me as mafia and I didn't die at night.

Why would Kinetic have killed you? It's far more fruitful to kill an active player and if he thought you were mafia, strategically, it was better to keep you alive to help get rid of one more townie to strengthen his odds.

Mgm, are you basically convinced the SK is someone who wouldn't contribute? Or are you just voting for me to get rid of a player who isn't as talkative?

I think it's a serious possibility that the SK lurked, after all, the more you say, the easier you can slip up and an SK has no buddies to back him up. If they're not in danger of lynching, shutting up might well have been a good strategy. I do however, think that after the Raffles kill, he knew that lurking was dangerous now, so I expect the SK -if they lurked to be chattier than before. Hence my suspicions of you.

To me, the SK could be any and everyone. At this point I'm only sure of my own innocence--but, because of how much power the SK has with kills, I don't feel they would be a lurker. They would have a vested interest in the game because it's a fun role for them.

You said it. The SK has a vested interest in the game: the nights. His one vote is barely gonna make a difference during the day, but the SK is going to be interested in the power of his nightkills.

I think they could stick their necks out the easiest without having to worry about getting a finger pointed at them, because their kills don't have to be systematic.

As I said, the SK has no backup, sticking their neck out can get them killed if a few too many people find it suspicious. I doubt the SK would risk their life to take a gamble.

[Mgm]

Stewie, now would be a good time, why you were willing to lynch xyzzy after going silent for two days when you weren't really convinced he was scum. I missed substance.

I asked that to see if you were connected to that scumbucket, with all the mafia dead, the point has become moot.

For a lynch, I'd probably go after mgm, because thought about this a bit and I think that killing D3ssited would have been a good way to divert attention away from himself (I believe it worked, since everyone said "oh, the sk is trying to frame him") but I realize it's not a strong argument.

I don't see how "he voted him to cover up the kill" could be a stronger argument. If someone dies their suspects and the people voting them are the first to be scrutinized -- not a position the SK wants to be in.

[Mgm]

Wow, almost 24 hours silence. Is anyone gonna talk?

[Mgm]

I ran some more numbers and came to the conclusion that today lynching is the better option.
1) If we lynch, there will be 4 people left, the SK kills one - 3 left. When discounting yourself, a 50% chance at finding scum.
2) If we don't lynch, the SK kills, 4 left (33%). (If we lynch wrong then, the SK wins)

I much prefer our chances with 3 people left. Anyone not voting by tomorrow is liable to feel my wrath and subsequent vote if it ensures a lynch.

[Mgm]

On Kinetic's arguments against Stewie: I agree with Stewie that the SK doesn't in fact know who the mafia were until they died. The only privilidged information he has is that he must kill everyone else. No more. Scum lynches should only be looked at as lynches at this moment since we now lack mafia.

I'm not liking Stewie's posts very much. Lynching mafia is something both the town and the SK want, so they don't have any bearing on someone's alignment despite what he's claiming.

[Mgm]

He tried to use being on the right lynches as a defense when it doesn't say a bloody thing. I don't think what Kinetic said was CrapLogic, but even if it was, he should defend against CrapLogic with more CrapLogic.

[Mgm]

Ah, I see, we're refering to two different parts of that post. You're mor concerned with the second part, where Stewie says that the SK would have wanted to lynch a townie, and the fact the he was on scum bandwagons makes him more likely to be town, right?

Yep, that's what sparked post 565.

[Mgm]

We're nearing the deadline...

Unvote: heatherlou; Vote: Stewie

[Mgm]

What's LA?

[Mgm]

Come on, people! We need votes right now!

[Mgm]

Even when you don't think he's scum, lynching him is better than a no lynch because of the resulting 1 in 3 chance of lynching the SK if we do actually lynch. The fact Stewie isn't voting himself is just icing on the cake. The SK wants the final day to be as hard as it can possibly be. He's contributing to that outcome.

[Mgm]

If you want votes, you should probably be addressing Stewie and Heather.

I was. I would like you to jump onto Stewie, but at least you are voting. Those two need a wakeup call.

[Mgm]

Wow! I was sure heather would come in too late. Congrats for being there with that deciding vote.

my "big" read was that Kinetic was buddying up with MGM, for it really seemed like they were..why was that?..also, I didnt really think the SK would Day kill me.,,at least not when I was goading him.

I think it was simply because we both were on the same line. I'm quite happy with my scum hit ratio in this one...