Mini 482: Shrek Mafia - Game Over

[Haschel Cedricson]

Hello. I'm here.

Mirth's same logic applies to Inhimshallibe, so

IGMEOY, inHim.

Sorry for taking so long to get here.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I believe Grek could have been putting out a trap for scum, albeit not necessarily the most well-thought-out trap.

I'm going to

vote: inHimshallibe

for placing the fourth vote on the bandwagon, effectively turning it from a pile of random votes to a bandwagon. I'm not sure what he meant by "Third vote = good enough". This could be a preemptive abdication of responsibility, i.e. "everyone else was voting for her; all I did was trust the town."

[Haschel Cedricson]

I would like to hear more from DeliciousGoldfish and benhalkum.

Also, Francisco D'Anconia was my favorite. His money speech is a thing of beauty.

[Haschel Cedricson]

If I counted correctly, that's two votes on Mr. Ben. Based on the second half of the last page, I am comfortable putting him at three.

Vote: benhalkum

Of course you're town. We all are. If we did a mass "Are you town or scum" claim, every single player would say they were town. In my experience, people who bring that up unprovoked usually are NOT town.

That's not to mention voting for Mirth for very weak reasons.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Here's a pbpa of Grek:

First Post:

Random vote on DG. Nothing suspicious here.

Second Post:

Unvotes DG and places the fifth vote on Nox. No explanation is given, which appears scummy but also has a town explanation that I will mention later.

Third Post:

Here he explains the vote on Nox:

f the scum quicklynch, we find 2 scum for 1 townie. If they don't, we lose nothing.

This is technically true, but how likely are scum to quicklynch on day one? I actually like the fact that he had an explanation ready that he did not explain when he made the vote; if he's telling the truth, then it would have been a bad idea for him to claim this from the beginning.

Fourth Post:

Is concerned mostly with the mechanics of a quicklynch, which is a null tell. He unvotes Nox, which is consistant with a townie who attempted a trap that did not spring.

Fifth Post:

Actually, the first thing I notice in this post is actually the second quote by Mirth, who claims that his unvote above is suspicious. I disagree; the unvote and the circumstances around it make sense from the standpoint of a town-Grek trying a failed gambit, and anything ELSE would have been wierd. I'm getting more town vibes here; his plan, albeit flawed, was concerned with a Nox QUICKLYNCH, not a Nox Lynch. There is a difference, and despite the fact that a quicklynch s unlikely, Grek's explanation has been consistant with itself so far.

Sixth Post:

More of the Grek/Mirth Show. His answers to Mirth's questions are less satisfatory here; his reason for unvoting in post 4 is now "To get [Mirth] to stop complaining about it". Grek is getting frustrated here, and it's showing.

I realize that this is unlikly to work, but it isn't going to hurt us either so it's worth a shot.

I agree. In fact, the discussion we're getting is arguably just as good as a quicklynch, and I hate the random voting stage anyway.

Seventh Post:

Mirth is questioning heavily, and Grek is flailing to come up with answers. To me it doesn't matter if Nox is town or scum for purposes of this argument, and I don't see why Mirth and Grek are spending so much time on it.

Eighth Post:

If I posted that I was voting to try to trap the scum, it wouldn't be a very good trap, would it?

Agreed.

Nineth Post:

Calls out benhalkum, and adds "Leaning heavily towards him being scum." Nothing inherently wrong here, although I would like SOME elaboration at this point. Remember, if you're Grek, the town is pressuring you pretty hard. You need to more than FoS ben, you have to convince the REST of us that ben is more suspicious than you. See my sig for elaboration.

Tenth Post:

I'm not a fan of the jester role in general, and I don't like it when suspicious people get labeled as jesters. I've been in games before where scum were playing scummily and then made it to endgame because the town gave them the Jester Free No-Lynch Pass. In fact, if Grek or ben got lynched right now and were scum, I would take a long look at if those two were partners based on the above comment. But that's just me, and not everyone shares my jester distaste.

Eleventh Post:

Nothing of note here, due to Jex's mistake.

Twelveth Post:

This has some good and some bad in it. For simplicity, I'm going to quote the whole thing. Underlined comments are mine:

Poor logic, arguing a lost point, and coming up with reasoning that was missing before the action; you are not following causality, good señor.

The reasoning was there, I just didn't share it the town until later as part of a stratigic move. Can you point out where I was not follow causality or had poor logic?

Grek is right here; his logic is consistant with itself, and he's not arguing a lost point, he's defending it, which you can't fault him for. As stated above, if he had just presented everything from the beginning, that would actually be MORE suspicious.

I believe that from the way you were wording your posts (which I don't really want to get into, because it's all those big posts in the argument w/ Mirth), that you are not telling the truth. I am a huge LAL fan, because it's very rare that townies should want to deceive the town.

I did not lie at all. What I did was more like a cop not posting the names of the innocents he has found so they aren't nightkilled for being a confirmed innocent. Would you lynch a cop for that?

Okay, I don't like Adam saying "You're lying and should be lynched on LAL, but I'm not going to prove any lies." I also don't like Grek's cop analogy. I don't even see how the analogy applies here. What you did is nothing like a cop withholding innocent results.

I don't know off the top of my head how many that is. I don't really care, because I think grek is scum and I want him lynched.

That would be the 5 vote. You should always check how many votes there are before voting. It is bad by at best and scummy at worst not to.

Grek is correct here.

ok, then re-wind.. pull out the place that says soemthing about a reason and replace with random.. my reason is randomness.

That is a very poor reason. Not to be rude, but you seem to have very poor grasp of logic or be realy not good at playing as scum or you are a very unstuble jester. I am leaning toward jester.

Ben is a horrible player. Grek brings up the jester again, which I don't like, but whatever.

[/quote]

Thirteenth Post:

An EBWOP.

Fourteenth Post:

Back to Mirth and Grek. I don't know how to read the part about the cop analogy, because it was such a crappy analogy in the first place. I didn't read it as breadcrumbing, but I don't know how to take it. I hope that Mirth is right about the jester.

Fifteenth Post.

Asks me to post. Hopefully this pbpa will do.

Overall Analysis:

Grek isn't lily-white, but I do believe that he is town. I'm sympathetic to gambit-play, and I don't see any major slip-ups that make me believe Grek has been doing anything other than what he claims to have been doing. We can look back at Grek later, but I do not believe that he is the lynch for today.

Later I will do a pbpa of Mirth and benhalkum. Not now, though. Food now.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Alright. Here's Mirth, post-by-post.

First Post:

A random vote. Nothing to analyze.

Second Post:

Blatant buddying-up to Jex. Nah, not really. It's a joke post, so it gets a joke analysis.

Third Post:

This is where it begins. Grek has placed the fifth vote on Nox, and Mirth votes him for it. I can't fault this vote at all, as Grek looks suspicious at this point.

Fourth Post:

Here Mirth makes an assumption that I disagree with, although the point has been debated elsewhere: by using Nox as the bait, Grek is assuming that Nox is town. I don't think this is necessarily true, because if Nox is scum, there will be no quicklynch, and nothing will be harmed. Now, not being QLed will reveal nothing about Nox's alignment, but if Grek's plan had worked (which admittedly is not very likely), a foiled QL could potentially confirm Nox as town. Of course, this is all hypothetically assuming that the scum are poor players, but it is within the realm of possibility.

I also disagree with Mirth's second statement: Grek is trying to push a lynch on Nox. Nox is bait in a trap. This is the post where Mirth goes from viewing Grek as a poor player to viewing Grek as a scummy player.

Fifth Post:

Tags messed up. See next post.

Sixth Post:

Mirth makes good points about the potential loss of a days information, explaining that scum won't be dumb enough to QL, and the point that scum sacrifice is pointless on Day One. The only thing I don't like about this post is that Mirth turned Grek's unvote into something scummy, when I feel anything OTHER than an unvote would have been scummy. Grek's trap failed, there was no logical reason to keep the vote on Nox.

Seventh Post:

Again, Mirth makes some strong points about why Grek's plan was flawed from the beginning: scum are not going to quicklynch. However, Mirth also says "quicklynch = bad". The entire premise of Grek's plan was to get TWO scum to reveal themselves. Almost all of the rebuttal to Grek's plan was not that a quicklynch hurts the town, but rather that a quicklynch

will not happen

. Again, Mirth brings up Nox's alignment which I still posit is not directly relevant to the discussion. Indirectly perhaps. But not directly.

It is true that Grek is being hypocritical; assuming town to be smart and scum to be dumb, and Mirth does point that out.

Eighth Post:

I'm like a dog. Once I get my teeth into something, I don't let go of it.

So I see.

Again, the point about hypocracy is a good one. However, the following quote strikes me as off:

Why should we move on to something else? Your argument is clearly not satisfactory to at least a few other people besides myself.

If you read Grek's post, he's suggesting that IF the trap does not work THEN we try some other way to catch scum. I'm not sure how Mirth interpreted Grek as trying to defelct suspicion.

Mirth is absolutely right that we need discussion from more people.

Ninth Post:

This post has nothing scummy in it, but all of the points have been made before, so I'm not going to comment further.

Tenth Post:

This is the first post in which Mirth addresses something other than Grek. However, Mirth has no strong feelings about Nox, Jex, or inHim. Mirth's reason for voting Grek is justified, however, I disagree that inHim's vote is equal to Jex's or Nox's votes. I'm a fan of the school of thought that says "Third person on a bandwagon is possibly scum; fourth person on a bandwagon is probable scum." I would like to see Mirth take another look at inHim, although IIRC, he hasn't posted much. I guess I can wait.

Eleventh Post:

Not too much of note here. Newbie 431 is ongoing, so we probably shouldn't talk about it.

Twelveth Post:

Thanks to dial-up, I'm doing this pbpa offline. As such, I have no idea what Mirth is talking about here, but I will check later.

Thirteenth Post:

Mirth demands accountability from ben, which is consistant with her attitude towards Grek. No problems here.

Fourteenth Post:

Again, heavily questioning towards ben. I think it would be fair to classify Mirth as a seeker of intent rather than content.

Fifteenth Post:

Mirth's actions here are consistant with her playstyle. Incidentally, Adam the Amazing seems sure that there are three scum players out there instead of two or four. Guess... or insider knowledge?

Sixteenth Post:

A question to Jex. Nothing to analyze.

Seventeenth Post:

I would like to point out, in regards to Ben, that a day one vote does require an explanation, unless it's a random vote.

I disagree with this. I can think of several scenarios where one might want to vote with no explanation. One of those scenarios might have already happened in this thread.

Remember, votes can also be used for pressure, and pressure is often more effective if it is unaccompanied by explanation.

Eighteenth Post:

I didn't interpret Grek as breadcrumbing, but if everybody else did, then Mirth is absolutely correct here. There's another reference to Newbie 431, which as I've said should not be commented on here. Mafia in a vacuum and whatnot.

Nineteenth Post:

It's apparent how Mirth feels about Grek, and the first paragraph here matches up with that. I also like that Mirth is wanting more discussion before either a Grek or ben lynch.

As for the distancing: at least Mirth acknowledges that it's all WIFOM on everybody's parts.

Twentieth Post:

Ah, the raven analogy. I agree that Grek's premise (scum will quicklynch and give themselves away) is flawed. However, let's assume I honestly believed that I could use a raven to bake a potato. And then you went back through my posts and saw that everything I did was consistant with the actions of a person who believed that a raven could bake a potato. I think that does count for something.

I honestly don't think that's a very well thought out plan, and therefore wonder if he thought of it before he placed the vote, or hastily threw something together after the fact.

Nothing I've seen from Grek suggests to me that he's making this up as he goes along. Despite the flawed premise, he has shown no signs of being scum pulling a defense out of his ass.

I guess this is the crux of this analysis: yes, Grek has a poor premise. Yes, Grek's plan did not work, nor was it likely to. However, most of the signs point to poor town, not scum. The majority of Mirth's posts deal with Grek and Grek only. I think it is possible that Mirth is trying to keep attention on a suspicious-yet-ultimately-town Grek. I think that Mirth is more likely to be scum than Grek, but less likely to be scum than inHim or benhalkum.

I would like to see more from inHim and DeliciousGoldfish.

As for me, my vote is on ben right now, and that's where I will leave it for now.

[Haschel Cedricson]

[quote="MirthIf I ever get a signature, I am so quoting that (with your permission of course.) [/quote]

Go for it. You don't even need permission.

1. Why do you think InHim is scummy? I honestly don't see anything all that scummy coming from him (yet, anyways. He hasn't posted much.)

The "third vote = good enough" comment sounds like a willingness to follow bandwagons, which I don't like. It also was the fourth vote, which is a position I hold to be important. I also don't believe it's that easy to confuse Nox and Jex, and he's mentioned it twice. To me that sounds like a near-abdication of responsibility.

2. Why do you think Ben is scummier than Grek? (I'm not saying that I don't, I have made no choice in regards to that, regardless of the fact that my vote is on Grek at the moment, but I would like to hear your opinion here.)

Aside from the fact that I believe Grek to be town right now, ben has flat-out told us that he will vote for whatever seems popular. His vote on you makes no sense given the reasons he gave, and he gave a weak sort-of-claim that he was town that I felt was both unwarranted and unconvincing.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Can someone tell me how to get into the view that lets you see 1 person's posts in the thread so I can understand Haschel Cedricson's post?

At the bottom of the page, right under the Quick Reply, you can select individual people. Choose a name, and then click "Go." The first post will be labeled as "Post 0", so add one to each number.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Just a side note.. I don't want anyone thinking I called anything like being a jester, or am trying to act in a jesterly manner. I'm not the jester, but I appreciate the attention guys.

I don't think you are the jester either, which is why I and several other people in this game are voting for you. Either defend yourself or point out somebody scummier than you for us to move our votes on to.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Mod: Can we get a prod on inHim and DG? Neither has posted in this thread for a week.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I'm checking in, but I'm holding off analysis until AKA Apokalypsekid9 comments. Also, from now on, I will be referring to him as Apo.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I was gone this weekend because I was at PAX. It looks like a lot has gone down since then, so I'm gonna get caught up now. Don't replace me!

[Haschel Cedricson]

Gah. My post got eaten.

Anyhoo, I think I've made it clear where I stand on the Grek/Mirth show: Grek may be misguided, but is ultimately town.

I think I'm currently voting for you.

Unvote.

I'm not going to hang you for the actions of your predecessor. However, I'm not giving you a free pass, either. ben was scummy, so I'm going to be watching you to see if it was the player or the role that was in the wrong.

For now, I will

vote: Mirth

.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Here's a pbpa on Adam the Amazing.

First Post:

A random vote on a player he knows in real life. Nothing to see here.

Second Post:

Another joke post. Again, no substance unless we hold that Mafia are more likely to joke around, which I don't. Especially not that early in the game.

Third Post:

Finally, some game-related content. However, Adam sees nothing scummy about L-2 at this stage, commenting that a quicklynch is "shaky at best for scum". I'm not sure why he he references C9 games, but I'm not particularly worried about this post.

Be aware of the pirate.

I assume that's me. Hopefully everybody is aware of everybody else in the game.

Fourth Post:

Alright, here's something I don't like. Adam suggests that either Grek and Mirth are distancing, or have at least one townie among them. This statement is, of course, necessarily true, but I get a small feeling that Adam is trying to bind Grek and Mirth to each other, possibly for later use. I'm not sure what the gain would be, although if hypothetically we lynch Grek AND Mirth and both are scum, I'm going to be looking at Mr. Adam very closely.

Fifth Post:

Repeats how hard the "distancing" appears to be. Again, Adam suggests that because of the intensity of debate, one of those two must be town. This post and the one before it are designed to convince the rest of us that the debate is NOT distancing. Either he really believes this or has some ulterior motive in mind.

Sixth Post:

Most of this post is pretty pro-town, considering the actions of benhalkum. I do note the irony of the sentence

This sounds like you're trying to hitch yourself up with Mirth's alignment.

when he himself has a tendency to link people's alignments together. Nevertheless, FoSing instead of voting is a pro-town tell.

Seventh Post:

A quarter of the town is trying to kill us, you say? Not, say, a third of the town, or a sixth of the town? Wow. I didn't know that. How did you know that?

Eighth Post:

I have no problem with him unvoting ben. I'm not crazy about his vote on Grek, although, admittedly I'm a bit biased on the Mirth/Grek debate. However, this part sticks out to me:

I believe that from the way you were wording your posts (which I don't really want to get into, because it's all those big posts in the argument w/ Mirth), that you are not telling the truth. I am a huge LAL fan, because it's very rare that townies should want to deceive the town.

If you're going to hint that we should lynch Grek under LAL, you should at least point out the supposed lies.

Nineth Post:

Nothing to analyze.

Tenth Post:

He's been reading, and he's been waiting for Apo. No surprises here.

Eleventh AND Twelveth Posts:

Gah. There's a reason I don't get into WIFOM arguments with people: they can go on forever, and we have no way of knowing which glass is poisoned. If anybody else did this, I would vote them on the spot for bringing in this amount of unwarranted confusion. Unfortunately, I know that you do this all the goddamn time, so it's a null tell.

Thirteenth Post:

I'm not sure what he's hooraying, because I'm looking at only his posts. I'm sure it's exciting, though.

Fourteenth Post:

Adam states that although Mirth is right in the argument, the debate means nothing about either of their alignments. That's a pretty noncommittal conclusion for a debate that took up half the game so far. I agree with his conclusion about how to treat DR, though. A replacement should be judged primarily on THEIR play, not their predecessor.

Final Conclusion:

For the most part, Adam the Amazing has done a fairly good job of appearing to be town. Nevertheless, on the reread I found several things that I did not like. I'm not going to vote him this early when I think there are better suspects out there, but Adam has been flying under the radar for the most part, and I think we would all do well to remember he is here.

Later today: inHimshallibe, Zindaras.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Here's a pbpa on Zindaras.

First Post:

Zindy comes right out of the gate with analysis; no random voting for him. The question raised to Grek is a valid one, and his comment about inHim is spot-on. The fourth vote is an important one in a 12-player game. Lastly, he chooses to start with pressuring benhalkum, which based on his play, is a perfectly reasonable place to start. No red flags here.

Second Post:

A comment about an ongoing game being referenced by other players. He is correct again.

Third Post:

Rationale for the ben vote. Again, everything is on the up-and-up so far.

Fourth Post:

Here Zindaras starts applying the thumbscrews to ben. ben's playstyle up to this point was warranted pressuring, and Zindaras steps up to the plate.

Fifth Post:

In this post, Zindaras unvotes to slow the speed of the wagon. This is consistant with a player who originally voted for pressure reasons: Zindy's goal with his first vote was to get information, not end the day with a lynch. I think this is a pro-town move.

Sixth Post:

Here I have a slight disagreement on Mafia doctrine with Zindy: I'm not convinced that all first-day votes need an explanation. In fact, particularly on Day One, explaining a vote can defeat the purpose of pressuring. As for the jester, I'm not convinced we have one, but if what Zindaras says about our mod is true, then I suppose we can consider it. Briefly.

Seventh Post:

The thumbscrews are off of ben and are now subtlely being applied to Mirth. However, he states that

Your Grek case is nice.

even though he has been pasking Mirth about it. If he already understands the case, I'm not sure what the point of his questions were. I agree with his conclusion about Grek, but, we already knew that.

Eighth Post:

Nothing pro-or-anti-town in this post.

Nineth Post:

But I do not see how it was clear and/or obvious that you did not want others to vote Grek, as making a case and subsequently voting usually does, in fact, mean just that.

This is true.

Tenth And Eleventh Posts:

This is an aside on whether stating arguments stifles independant debate or not. There is nothing to analyze here, so I'm moving on.

Twelveth Post:

Back to ben. Zindaras is right about the jester discussion. Other than that, there is nothing here except for a question posed to benhalkum.

Thirteenth Post:

Hooray for not eliminating possibilities! He comments on how wagons form faster than usual in this game. He also says he will have to "see if [he] likes [inHim's] explanation. Well, what do you think?

Fifteenth Post:

Oh. Well, get caught up soon, then.

Final Conclusion:

Based on his play and scumhunting tactics, I am prepared to say that I think Zindaras is the second-towniest person here. I can't wait for him to make up for lost time, because I didn't really find any scumtells at all.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Due to delays, I will not finish my pbpa's on inHim or Jex until tomorrow. Please don't LAL.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Why exactly are you voting for Mirth? I just skimmed through your post really quickly so I might of missed something, but I didn't see anything indicating why you voted for Mirth.

There really was no reason, other than to see how Mirth and everyone else reacted. Of course, nobody reacted at all until now, and I forgot that I had indeed shifted to her.

Unvote

for now, as my pressure vote did nothing of the sort.

I'll be on the road for most of today, so don't expect me to post until late PDT.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I'm back on dial-up Internet, so I will not be checking quite as frequently until I get moved back to college. Sorry.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Alright. from towniest to scummiest:

Haschel Cedricson: That's me.

Jex: Her play has been very pro-town, and I haven't noticed anything
even remotely suspicious in her posts. I've also played with her a
lot, and everything I see is consistant with pro-town Jex. I'm aware
part of this is metagame stuff, but I'm confident placing her here.

Zindaras: I covered him in a pbpa, and I still believe that he is very town.

Mexal: No red flags in Mexal's posts. I like his playstyle, and the fact that he brought up Pug's sketchiness gets points from me. His rereads seem designed to spur discussion and actually analyze things, whereas I don't get the feeling of scum trying to look town from his posts.

Grek: Hasn't been playing optimally, but has been consistant with a
misguided townie. I understand why everyone else is suspicious, but I
don't agree.

Oman: No read yet. I disagree with several points he's made, but that's not necessarily scummy.

Riki: Riki has played okay, but not great. His predecessor was horrendous. I'm not too keen on his explanation for ben's play, but I can't really justify moving him down the list.

Adam the Amazing: Nothing too glaring, but I don't like how he starts
the WIFOM arguments when there's no reason to bring anything up.

Mirth: Mirth might be town; most of you think she is. I'm not quite
buying it, though. I think she's been TOO focused on Grek, and I was
surprised that she didn't acknowledge my vote on her at all; it gave
me feelings of ignoring-pressure-in-hopes-it-goes-away. If somebody
could explain why the rest of you are convinced she's town, I would
appreciate that.

Pug: Has almost been a non-factor in this game. Mexal made an
excellent point that Pug has tended to just parrot the arguments of
others.* Also, and admittedly this is a bit OMGUS, I don't like how
he implied that my pro-Grek stance is suspicious, since I feel I
logically explained everything I felt about Grek. I think Pug may be
trying to deflect the topic of the conversation.

DeliciousGoldfish: Again, the most OMGUSy player I've ever seen.
Until you try actually reading the arguments and contributing your
own, I have no problem applying pressure to you.

inHim: I still think he's the best choice as I didn't like his vote
or any of his subsequent explanations. I see he may have to be
replaced, but I feel confident enough that I may vote for his
replacement anyways.

Vote: inHimshallibe

[Haschel Cedricson]

Alright, I don't quite understand where the debate about the SK/Vig came from, but I would like some clarification on the following quote:

Mafia group (obvobv) - Misses NK for some reason(?)
Vig (pro town) - Doesn't NK N1 due to it being a stupid thing to do.
SK (anti-town) - Doesn't NK N1 due to the possibility of claiming vig later.

I'd doubt all three,

so I'm going to say there is a scumgroup and a vig/SK. We should know by tomorrow (in that SK will kill more pro-town players and vig will kill scummier (WIFOM!))

If you doubt all three possibilities, then why do you say that we have a SK/Vig?

[Haschel Cedricson]

....I doubt all three AT ONCE.

We can have a mafia group and an SK/Vig (read: SK OR Vig).

Gotcha.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Alright, after a reread of Pug, I noticed the only thing he's said about inHim was an attempt to answer a question that was intended for inHim and then a general "I'd like to hear more from him". Then Pug never pursued his desire to hear more from inHim; in fact, Pug never mentions his name again.

I already think that inHim is scum, but Pug looks like a likely partner. I have no problem right now placing a

Vote: Pug89

.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Unvote.

I'm not going to lynch a claimed doctor on the first day.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Vote: Pug89

I do not believe his doctor claim right now.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Now then, I really would like to hear from Haschel. On top of a question I threw out to him earlier, I'd like to ask him why he thinks I'm voting him.

Why am I voting for Pug? Simple; I do not believe that he protected Mirth. I believe that he targeted Jex last night.

As for why you are voting for me, I can't claim to follow your thought processes, but I'll try. Perhaps you believe that since I was pro-Grek yesterday when everyone was not, I must have had certain knowledge because I was mafia and would therefore know that Grek would come up town if lynched.

It's a decent argument, but it leads to a false conclusion. I think I explained exactly why I felt Grek was town very well.

I'm about to reread the last page. The Mexal/Zindy interaction is getting interesting.

[Haschel Cedricson]

This is s pretty heavy accusation. You seem pretty sure too? Any reason?

Yes.

Delicious Goldfish is a vig

It looks like we have two scum caught right here, barring an explanation from Glork.

As for the Mexal/Zindaras debate, I actually think that both of them are town.

If I had to bet right now, I would say that the scum team consists of Pug89, Glork, and either FaerieLord or Mirth.

[Haschel Cedricson]

For all we know, Jex could have been the roleblocker/protector/switcher. Don't forget, this appears to be a limited-reveal game.

More around 3:00 PDT.

[Haschel Cedricson]

There are at least three actions here, and three targets:

Somebody targeted Jex, killing her.
PBug (supposedly) targeted Mirth, saving her.
DG (supposedly) targeted Glork, killing him (but not really).

If there WAS a bus driver, let's see who could have been switched.

1) Perhaps Glork was switched with Mirth. This would cause Mirth to die, as the doc protection on her would have actually protected Glork, leaving her defenseless to DG. This did not happen, so Glork and Mirth were not switched.

2) Perhaps Jex was switched with Mirth. This would cause Glork to die, and possibly cause Mirth to die. At any rate, Jex would have lived, due to the protection intended towards Mirth.

3) Perhaps Jex was switched with Glork. This would cause Jex to die at the hands of DG. Then the Mafia could have targeted Mirth and been foiled by Pug saving her. This could have logistically happened. But it did not happen, because Pug is a liar.

Based on the above, I do not believe that there was a switch. However, I am not sure as to why Glork was not killed. The only thing that would make sense is a NK-immunity. However, the claim of mason makes things difficult. If Glork is lying about being a mason, then Riki will either refute the claim or is the last member of the Mafia.

If Glork is innocent, then who is scum? Not Delicious Goldfish, I say. The fact that she sought out mod confirmation about the roleblocking indicates to me that she is not pulling a vig claim out of her ass. You've all seen how OMGUSy she is; subtle is not the game DG plays.
The claimed doc-protects suggest to me that at least one of Nox/Oman or Mirth is town. Probability suggests Nox/Oman, but it's iffy. If Pug was falsely claiming doctor, then he most likely chose somebody he knew was town as his first target. Then, either he continues to get into town good graces by claiming to have protected another townie, or he feels bold and thinks that he can make his partner look good. Based on the events of yesterday and how skeptical everyone has been of Pug's claim, I think that it is the former.

So, I want to hear from Riki to confirm or deny this Masonry. Also, if anyone else has another explanation about why Glork is alive, I'd love to hear it.

[Haschel Cedricson]

EBWODP: I'm not sure if the real doctor should come out yet.

[Haschel Cedricson]

C'mon Glork, you're smarter than this. Am I the only one that can pick the real doc?

Nope.

[Haschel Cedricson]

So of your potential docs, the only people it could be would be Faerielord or Haschel. It's not hard to narrow it down some.

Yeah, with this quote, FaerieLord now knows that I'm the other doc, so I'm just going to claim to the rest of you.

I am Prince Shrek, doctor. I protected Jex on Night 1 and Oman on Night 2.

Now we're in a tricky situation here; Pug, Mirth, Zindy, and myself have all claimed doc. Out of these four, I think that Pug is the most suspicious because simply because he claimed first, and doctor is a common role for scum to claim.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Oh, and my last question that I forgot: Haschel, how were you so sure of Grek's innocence yesterday?

Basically, everything he said pointed to misguided town instead of scum. His plan, although inherently flawed, was consistant with itself, and I felt that scum under as much pressure as he was would have cracked at some point, which Grek never did.

Even after the trap-debate, Grek's posts made sense from a town standpoint.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Updated Claim List, in order:

Pug -- Merlin -- Doctor
Goldfish -- Fiona -- Vigilante
Glork -- Puss in Boots -- Mason
DR -- Donkey -- Mason
Me -- King Harold -- Doctor
Zindaras -- Queen Lillian -- Doctor
Haschel -- Shrek -- Doctor
Mexal -- Pinocchio -- Cop
Oman -- Dragon -- Anti-doc
FaerieLord -- (Not given, but I have a guess) -- Tracker

The point about Oman that Zindy makes above is a good one. As for Faerie, I don't know if I believe him to be a tracker, but I DO believe that he targeted Jex Night 1 for metagame reasons.

Here are the people supposedly protected Night One. The doctor in each case is in parentheses.

Nox/Oman (Pug89)
inHim (Mirth)
Jex (Haschel)

Zindaras protected nobody, which makes sense, since he replaced in for Flash007.

We now know that inHim is town. Looking back at the previous day, I believe that Mirth is a doctor, 100%. Her interactions with inHim are consistant with a doctor knowing his innocence.

We also know that Jex is town. I think it's obvious in retrospect that I protected as I claimed I did, but you will have to do your own analysis on me.

We do not know if Nox/Oman is town. My gut tells me that Pug is not actually a doctor, which would mean that either he was trying to buddy-up to town-Oman or trying to protect scumpartner-Oman.

Glork, Riki, Mirth, and myself are definite town. Mexal and DG are probable town. Oman and Faerie are possible scum, and Pug is probable scum. I'm not quite sure what to make of Zindaras right now.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Followin question to Zindaras and Haschel (since I already gave my logic): what were your thoughts when Pug claimed?

Sorry, just noticed this question. I thought that he was 100% scum trying to get me to counterclaim. I responded by unvoting so that it would not appear that I was the real doctor, and played the start of Day 2 accordingly. I voted him right away, and when pressed for why, I said

Simple; I do not believe that he protected Mirth. I believe that he targeted Jex last night.

The purpose of this was to imply that I had some sort of night action reason to suspect him while at the same time hoping to convince the scum that there was still a doctor out there who could protect me.

Anyhoo, why did FaerieLord track DG on Night 2?

As for our strategy tonight, Mirth should protect Mexal, I should protect Mirth, Zindaras should protect me. Pug, if he is not the lynch today, should protect Zindaras. If any doctor other than Pug is NKed, then the doctor that was supposed to be protecting them is likely scum. Is this viable strategy?

[Haschel Cedricson]

That's why I prefer the plan I outlined a few pages ago. Yes, it leaves people open, but if a doctor dies, it proves the doctor supposedly protecting them is scum. We get FL to track Mexal, and have him tell us who Mexal targeted before Mexal reveals his investigation result.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Sorry, I don't find this plan. Can you explain it again, and also give your suggestions for nightactions in case you disagree with any of them.

Sure.

Mirth should protect Mexal, I should protect Mirth, Zindaras should protect me. Pug, if he is not the lynch today, should protect Zindaras.

Players that are protected under this plan: Mexal, Mirth, Haschel, Zindaras.

Mexal investigates his choice of Faerie, DG, or Pug. Faerie tracks Mexal, and when day breaks, Faerie must correctly name who Mexal investigated before Mexal announces the results.

If a doctor other than Pug dies, then we can lynch the doctor that was supposed to be protecting them.

Basically, if we lynch Oman and he's town, then the scum would have to be between Faerie, Pug, Zindy, or DG. With Mirth and myself most likely to be doctors, we can play follow-the-cop. Mirth can't die until I die, and in order for that to happen the scum would have to either kill Zindy first or out Zindy as scum, giving us a 1-for-1.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Look, we can play for the ideal night game or the ideal day game. If we try to force a kill on a player, then we still have a 50% chance of losing a doctor.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Alright, fine. Do we use Glork's chart from earlier?

[Haschel Cedricson]

I will protect either Mirth or Delicious.

[Haschel Cedricson]

What about the other stuff I asked, Haschel? (so you're for weighted?)

No, I'm not, but I understand the reasoning behind, so I can roll with it.

[Haschel Cedricson]

I'm down with that.

Vote: Oman

[Haschel Cedricson]

Oh, and before I we do anything, I want a promise from Goldfish that she will not kill anyone, a definite investigation target from Mexal, and a promise from Haschel to actually use a random coin flip.

Cross my heart and hope to die.

Er, not to die. Cross my heart and hope to be unsuccessfully targeted?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Dammit, DG, did you even bother to check why we were waiting?

[Haschel Cedricson]

That is indeed the plan.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Yay!

No, don't "Yay" us now! What were your results?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Welp.

Vote: Zindaras

[Haschel Cedricson]

Wow. I can't believe that there was no NK on night one, and yet Mirth, Pug, and myself all acted accordingly on Day 1.

That balance was crazy. My only worry near the end was that Mexal wasn't town, but once he claimed a scum investigation I figured he had to be legit.

Good game, town! And good game docs, for not targeting the same person.