Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[distad]

/confirm. Sorry for the delay, guys.

[distad]

Hmmm... regarding LML's theory...

what are the odds of having a mafia watcher?

I mean, if that's the case, proposing his theory makes complete sense. Town powers would waste the N1 picks on someone who certainly would NOT be scum-targeted, AND scum would know who the power roles are...

[distad]

Well, after Stoof modkills Glork for insubordinance, I guess we'll find out whether he's scum or not...

[distad]

Yeah, Flay... I have some thoughts.

I think that we're all just playing with ourselves here. I don't think that any of this is needed. The scum are going to come up with their lists, and a lot of that will probably be random. The doc will come up with a list, again, probably just random. The cop will come up with a list, again, more or less just random.

Further, I'd be willing to bet that we DO have a vig in here. Stoof made a point of clarifying the rule that all power roles have to send in a list *unless otherwise specified in the role PM*. There probably is that provision in the vig's pm.

At this point, I think that we should just crack open a beer, sit back, get to Night, and then get our game on.

[distad]

Well, I guess that we're not going to see eye-to-eye on it, then.

You guys can certainly feel free to deliberate all you want. I've sent my list in already and now I'm going to relax and follow along.

Smoke 'em if you've got 'em.

[distad]

The reason I feel that the vig would be the "if it states so in your role PM" person is that vigs can't (logically) randomly fire at will. I don't think I've ever seen a vig kill on Night 0 (and not regret it, at least). Forcing a vig to make a list that he would be bound to would be ultimately foolish, I think.

Stoof might have thrown that in there as a red herring, but we can't assume that he did. As for the non-methodical role being scum, it's a possibility. Although, I think that this game will be more centered on role claims and the disproving therein.

[distad]

Vote: VitaminR

[distad]

I read the "random" kill as non-methodical/non-planned, also.

VitaminR, why do you want to create a Flay wagon? You already said that you don't subscribe to the SK theory.

Unvote, Vote: Glork

I'm surprised that you're attacking Xdaamno for his comment. Weren't you surprised to see a "random" kill? I didn't expect to see that. It seemed to me that Xd was questioning the exact wording of the flavor.

[distad]

No, I wouldn't get any info from either...

However, his "Randomly Slain?" isn't NEARLY on the same level as "Good job, doc!" One is pro-town, the other is an overt expression of surprise with no bias toward either town or scum. It's just an observation.

That's why I think this is blown out of proportion.

[distad]

Perhaps, but with SOOO many pages full of that stuff already, I for one didn't make much of that one.

I mean, it's not an over-the-top townie post, and it's among the first few posts of the day. If it were a "nothing" post mid-day, I'd be suspicious. But an observant post at the top of a day that doesn't reek of "trying to be town" doesn't set off any of my alarms.

[distad]

I don't think 3 is a scum tell. The two quotes were taken out of context (I had to go back and look at them). Granted, we haven't heard from him yet on this, but in looking back, it looks like more of a response to myself and ojpower.

That said, the "That sucked! Vote..." fits into Glork's non-active early-day post scumtell category...

[distad]

Although, I think that this game will be more centered on role claims and the disproving therein.

Stoofer doesn't. And, um, he designed the game. Also, with presubmitted lists it's

harder

to prove claims.

I just read back through and saw this again. What an arrogant POS. Part of me wishes he were still around to "discuss" this, and the other part of me is glad that someone fragged him. I must be missing something, though. Could anyone point out to me where Stoofer doesn't believe that role claims will be more important in this game? I keep seeing this as just his opinion.

I still think that claims will be fairly large in this game. The variable is certainly that "random" kill, but I think it's more likely SK than mafia. I just don't envision the collective scum entity having more than one kill.

[distad]

Ah. Well, thanks Erg0. I must have missed that. Many apologies, Stoofer. I still think that it would have been nicer for Seol to do what you just did. I will remember to avoid him in games from here on out.

[distad]

distad, I'd say the chance of a mafia watcher in this game would be

smaller

than the average chance of having a watcher in any other game (Due to the list-orientated play, which a watcher can't have much foresight on); or atleast there's no evidence to suggest there would be one.

I mean, if that's the case, proposing his theory makes complete sense. Town powers would waste the N1 picks on someone who certainly would NOT be scum-targeted, AND scum would know who the power roles are...

If vanilla townies don't have any lists to make, then his theory can't make sense (And they don't).

Directly after this whole quote, Flay had his outburst. I didn't read it to be a response to the last part of the quote as much as a response to my comment (included in the quote) and the first half of XD's quote.

[distad]

Vote: Simenon

I'm not partial to Simenon's strong effort to wagon Flay.

I don't see it.

[distad]

0 for 2, because you think so?

No, I think I'll leave my vote here.

[distad]

I can only vote for one person. Along those lines, you and Glork are right there, too.

I'm not at all convinced about Flay's wagon and I haven't seen anything to warrant a vote, let alone the wagon. Why are you convinced Glork/Sim are town?

Also, Glork's wasn't a good post. It's BS. I voted him, which he obviously would argue against. Then, when I vote what could certainly be his partner, he responds with "you're 0-2" and that's it. How is that POSSIBLY a constructive post?

[distad]

Of course it was defensive. I was *defending* myself. o.O

[distad]

You've told us that Simenon is town.

That's great.

Um... WHY?

[distad]

But if it is certainly not in our best interest to role claim, I'm inclined to believe that there are night choices that are "phoned in" each night.

[distad]

Unvote, Vote: BMQ

I did a quick re-read and page 6 is rife with anti-BMQ points that I agree with.

[distad]

Okay... you've made it abundantly clear that Flay is your choice for the day. I don't agree, but fine. I'm just asking if you'd be willing to entertain the thought of investigating others today for future looks. In particular, what do you think of Simenon's BMQ "wagon"?

[distad]

I pointed you to a page, which is better than a simple one-line-post...

BMQ, I'm agreeing with Simenon. Your post felt more than anything like you wanted to

appear

to be contributing (as opposed to actually contributing), which is backed up by:

In fact, had I not commented on LML's strategy, would I be targeted and persecuted for "ignoring" it and not contributing to the topic of discussion? Am I to be punished simply because others were able to speak on a subject before I was able to?

Basically you're saying you made that post because you thought you'd be attacked if you didn't. It's not that you didn't add anything, but that you're excessively concerned with your own appearance.

Also, discussing the doc strategy in-thread? No! Bad BMQ!

Bad

BMQ! That's wrong on

so many

levels.

There are two distinct thoughts there. Unfortunately he is dead and cannot clarify beyond this:

Also, discussing the doc strategy in-thread? No! Bad BMQ!

Bad

BMQ! That's wrong on

so many

levels.

Do you want the doctor to protect randomly? Or to make uneducated decisions? If we are not to discuss targeting strategy on the first day, then what are we to do? Sit around and talk about avatars?

Spend day 0 as if it's day 1, as I proposed earlier? Give people an opportunity to decide who is acting scummily in this game to give more material on which to base lists?

Also, if doing something is bad, we are better off doing nothing than doing that thing.

I'm against the doctor protecting randomly, but I would rather trust the doctor to make good decisions by themselves than discuss out in the open where the scum can both influence the decision and pick up hints about how best to minimise the impact of the doctor (

especially

if we reach a "conclusion" about the best strategy), or even get clues as to who may be the doctor. Yes, there's a risk that someone will make poor decisions that way, but that's a considerably lesser risk than talking about it.

pseudovote: BrianMcQueso

.

Continued discussion along these lines seems forced. It is as if you WANT us to think that you are the doctor fishing for suggestions. I think it's a red herring.

Is that more what you're looking for?

[distad]

There is more discussion between VitR, Simenon, and Erg0, but I didn't think any of their comments to be particularly quote worthy in that setting.

I comprised a little, so can you.

[distad]

A) I don't have a meta on Distad like I have on you
B) Distad isn't accomplishing much by name-calling without evidence (says the pot to the kettle)
C) His suspicions so far have pretty much sucked
D) I like the questions that BMQ asked -- they seem to be good ones for Distad to try to answer if his suspicion of BMQ is genuine
E) Have I mentioned that BMQ is a bad lynch today?
F) 'Cause I said so
....I think that covers it.

A) Gee... I guess you'll have to actually respond to the game content instead of relying on past assumptions... The extra couple of minutes you'll have to spend each day will probably be tough on you...
B) Again, I referenced a page that I felt was particularly damning -- as that wasn't enough, I pinpointed a couple of the posts that I had considered for my vote. (QFT)
C) In your *humble* opinion, I presume...
D) Which I actually accomplished, at least to the satisfaction of the asker.
E) Nope!
F) I hadn't counted on a Glorkinator in this game... That will alter my strategy a little.

[distad]

Since nobody else asked...

Glork:

why

is BMQ a bad lynch today?

Distad, you've voted for four different people already today, and actually went from voting Simenon (for wagoning Flay) to jumping onto the next wagon he started. It looks like you just found a wagon that you thought might have legs, so you jumped on it without going through the intervening phase of concluding that Sim wasn't scum. I think you want to just get any lynch you can.

FoS: Distad

I haven't concluded that Sim isn't scum. After he posted/voted, he left the burden of research on us. So, I reread the game and saw several points (not his) that I felt were vote-worthy, so I acted on it.

Of course I want a lynch. It's still Day 1 and we're spinning in circles right now. I'm not TRYING to follow wagons. Sometimes it ends up looking like that, though.

[distad]

That was on D0 when we were all trying to figure out who the "non-methodical" person would be. It was promptly dismissed.

That's hardly even in the top 10 "more egregious" posts in the whole game.

I guess you're not here.

[distad]

Unvote, Vote: Distad

What? You're not going to bless us with more rhetoric?

[distad]

<sigh>

Fine.

I'm a cop. I know I'll get night-killed now because of it, but I'm a

second

cop. Flay was my Night 0 choice, and came back innocent/not cult. Conveniently, Glork was going to be my Night 1 choice.

There.

Looks like you missed *REALLY* big Erg0.

[distad]

Oh, and for the second part of your request, Flay--

It would seem prudent to look at Glork and Simenon because they have been awfully terse with their posts -- almost to the point where they're afriad to say even an additional word.

[distad]

yeah... i was just trying to figure out where you were going with that...

[distad]

I mean, I'm a cop and have been from the get-go. No other frills. I was very surprised, frankly, to see that Seol was a cop. This, too, doesn't mean that there isn't a third cop. I have no idea.

Of course, you're on my list of potential scum. I guess I'll find that out better tonight, though. Whether I get to share with anyone else will remain to be seen.

[distad]

The one thing that I have been worried about is if there is a Godfather/investigation immune figure and Flay is it. It is something to consider, as well, but until I have an actual reason to logically believe it, it will remain solely on a backburner.

[distad]

I still have a hunch of distad from what I've said on post 124. Scum really would be most likely to want to stifle the day and move into night.

I actually disagree with this. I think that scum would be MOST likely to want to keep D0 going with as much conversation as possible to get a read on how doctors/cops would make their lists and be able to plan their night kills accordingly.

I know that I certainly did not want to discuss how I put together my list.

[distad]

But I don't also see a reason for claiming Day 1, but I do alsot see how it would work.

I was asked to after I had received a plurality in votes under a deadline after a couple of fairly slow days, implying that there might not have been quite this much activity prior to the lynch. People were already getting antsy and I didn't want to die because 1) I'd rather play the game; and 2) My death would be particularly unfortunate for the town.

So, I begrudgingly claimed.

[distad]

I stand corrected... unfortunately my investigation result was given to me via AIM, so I'm not 100% sure of the verbiage of it, however based on the wording of my role pm, my results will be either mafia or cult

or

not mafia or cult.

I got a "Not" response.

[distad]

yeah, because unless a doctor SOMEHOW managed to protect me tonight, I anticipate being dead tomorrow, so why not a "poor me"?

And my concern with Flay being investigation immune is that despite my having defended him the WHOLE day (look back at it) there have been interesting suspicions brought against him.

[distad]

yeah, because unless a doctor SOMEHOW managed to protect me tonight, I anticipate being dead tomorrow, so why not a "poor me"?

Unless I'm mistaken, the Mafia can't specifically target you tonight. Didn't they have to set up all their nightkills just like we had to set up our choices?

You're half right. Supposedly, the mafia had to set up their night kills, but there is a "non-methodical" killer out there, hence the fear.

[distad]

As deadline looms closer, I got curious of the vote count:

(Unofficial, of course)
BMQ - 4 (distad, CES, Simenon, VitR)
Simenon - 2 (BMQ, Flay)
Erg0 - 1 (Glork)
VitR - 1 (Xdaamno)

Not voting: Erg0 and Nocmen

I could have missed a few, but I think that's right.

[distad]

Check that... hehe

BMQ is -1, I believe?

[distad]

Unvote

I'm not ready for this to end quite yet...

[distad]

BMQ - I'm sure your request would hold more water if you hadn't needed to be prodded a page and a half into today's posts.

I know it will seem scummy to many of you, but I like the deadline where it is, only because it CAUSED this whole discussion. If it were pushed back, I'm fairly sure we'd slow down considerably until the time of the new deadline when it would get back up to this rapid fire progression.

I think we can work through this, no matter who has to leave to sleep.

[distad]

Erg0... I had it all typed out... I was going to vote for you, ask you to claim... but in the off chance that it MIGHT end up helping town for you to not claim, I will not put you back in the sole lead to force the claim -- that said, if you choose to claim, more/less power to you.

I will check again in a couple of hours, but that will likely be the last time that I will have a chance before tomorrow.

I will make a vote at that point.

[distad]

Ahh... over 150 posts today. I can't wait to see Flay's post-graph for *THIS* one!

And Erg0... about Simenon using short and pointed posts (you said this in 450), I posted the exact same thing about him (and Glork) in 324.

[distad]

Yeah... I can still change that, though.

And right now, my pathos is hearing better than my logos. I'm more inclined to not vote you right now.

I just have to figure out in the next 20-30 minutes if I should do nothing or vote for Simenon.

I'll be back.

[distad]

Well, I had to make a decision, so...

Vote: Simenon

When I voted Simenon, Glork came out with his "now you're 0 for 2" line -- after voting Glork before. He's pushing me away from Simenon like I did Simenon with Flay, except he doesn't have a cop/investigation claim backing it up. I've been suspicious of the two of them, and Simenon is the only of the two where a vote would have any impact at this point.

There.

Goodnight.

[distad]

In middle of lenthy reread to examine Xdaamno...

Vote: BrianMcQueso

Glrok, this is not a particularly strong scum tell. Get off Xdaamno and onto BMQ, please.

Post 174 probably isn't going to included in CES's self-defense.

[distad]

What do you want to hear from me, Flay? I already stated that Glork was my next investigation. He was methodically killed (so luckily stating that didn't impact the non-methodical kill).

Glork came back "not mafia or cult", little consequence or surprise to me at that point.

[distad]

On a completely unrelated note, does anyone think there is a special significance to the order in which we leave the town square and arrive again (in the flavor text of ModStoofer's posts)? They're not alphabetical, and I can't seem to spot a pattern right now, but it seems like there should be something important there.

I've been trying to figure something from them as well, most specifically the differences between leaving and returning each night. I'll keep on it.

[off-topic]Are you actually in the city or the general bay area? (I'm in Marin.)[/off-topic]

I will come up with a "brief" analysis of the remaining players sometime tomorrow when I'm at work.

Making off-topic comments will result in your replacement. Just ask VampanezeHunter - Stoofer

[distad]

I've spent some time looking at the lists of coming vs going and I really can't see any significance there. (Of course, I think it helps that when the list of our leaving on D0 first was posted, I wasn't there, and then was thrown into the middle when it was caught.)

I find it hard to believe that Stoofer would allow a game to be broken like this, anyway. That said, XD (scum) re-entered the town last on D1, and BMQ (suspect) re-entered last on D2.

That's all I've got from the lists. There really doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason.

[distad]

Well, yes... but that's it?

[distad]

Here's an interesting thought. I doubt that it will stand up, either...

What if we have two mafias? Two cops... perhaps each only able to detect a particular family?

It wouldn't be TOO unreasonable with 12 people to have two sets of two. One of the groups could be methodical, the other could be chosen nightly.

I have nothing to back this up. I'm just brainstorming (read: brainfarting).

[distad]

Yeah, CES... I'm just trying to brainstorm during our brief "lull". I already said that I didn't expect it to stand up... I'm still trying, though!

Erg0 - I don't see how I look the 'worst' regarding XD's posts when there is a lot of questionable stuff out there, but I'll wait for the second installment to respond in full.

[distad]

My thought on it was that XD came up in "red". Maybe other scum would come up as "blue". The whole thing is pretty unlikely, though.

[distad]

Absolutely... Again, I'm just brainstorming.

[distad]

I know I still need to respond to Erg0. I will.

There are 3 others I would like to hear more from, as well. CES, Flay, and VitR, and preferably in that order.

VitR has said that he wants to hear Flay's theory before he adds more.

Flay has said that he wants to hear more from CES before he gives his theory.

CES has said that he needed time to look through the thread again before putting more out there (including a vote).

I'm not as concerned about CES's vote, yet. I want to hear something from him, for Flay, for VitR.

Oy vey!

And yes, I understand the irony of asking for their contributions while still pausing with mine, but I think my job is collapsing around me, so I'm going to get pissed. As long as there are no objections, I'll resume tomorrow morning...

No?

Good

[distad]

Before I respond to Erg0, I'd like some input about something. To what extent would it be good/helpful for me to mention whom I'm investigating prior to nightfall?

[distad]

It's more than just that. Only my investigative 'target' from yesterday died, and he was killed methodically (not me, nor my 'target' from D1).

And that's part of why I'm leaning toward stating my 'target' today, to help show you that i'm not blowing smoke. It's still WIFOM, but at least it lends a *little* more credibility.

[distad]

distad: "worst" is a relative term - Xdaamno talked about you specifically as being scummy a lot (relative to others), and then made a sudden backdown, based on what I see as an iffy reason, when you claimed. I'm only looking at a subset of the evidence here, and I'm not sure if it's really that useful in the end (see below).

Here's a catalogue of mentions of Xdaamno by others in their posts.

BrianMcQueso
222: Doesn't see Xdaamno's day-starting comment as a scumtell, bit of a summary (some of which misses the point, IMO). Points out that distad was also surprised.
412: Puts Xdaamno as "basic townie" in roundup post.

Cogito Ergo Sum
175: Asks Glork to get off Xdaamno and onto BMQ (early day 1 wagons)
177: In response to Glork's comment that he'd lynch CES "a dozen times over" before BMQ: "Now why do you want to lynch me all of a sudden? Or do you mean Xdaamno?" (I don't really see how he could think that Glork was talking to Xdaamno here).
203: Says again he thought Glork was referring to Xdaamno. Says Xdaamno's "burden of proof" comment re: CES not jumping on the Flay wagon is wrong (I never quite got what Xdaamno meant by this).

distad
192: Votes Glork for voting Xdaamno, thinks Xdaamno's surprise was genuine.
233: Raises a D0 post by Xdaamno re: Mafia watchers as a possible reason for Flay's "stop claiming" post.

Mr. Flay
240: More or less confirms distad's theory in 233 that he was responding to Xdaamno D0.

Nocmen
Nothing I can see.

VitaminR (replaced ojpower)
113: Calls Xdaamno's cautious suspicion of LML scummy.
195: Passing mention of Xdaamno in relation to Flay's D0 comment on claims.
248: Lists Xdaamno as "mildly scummy" (with distad & BMQ) in a roundup post.
351: Doesn't like Xdaamno vote on him without reasoning.
357: Accepts Xdaamno's reasoning based on ojpower's posting.

Unfortunately a majority of the talk about Xdaamno on Day 1 was from Glork, Sim and me, and there's nothing particularly dynamite here as far as I can see. I don't really like BMQ's 222, which offers a slightly off-point defence of Xdaamno's early "surprised" post and drags distad into the picture for doing the same thing. VitR kind of vaguely mentions him as scummy without follow-up, but it's pretty circumstantial. distad defends the "surprise" scumtell, but that seems too obvious a link to be significant. All in all it's a bit of a muddle. I'm starting to think that this form of analysis works better when the scum dies Night 2 instead of Night 1 (or at least when the people with the most interactions aren't dead or me). Nocmen and CES barely had any crossover with Xdaamno at all, probably due to the fact that both were missing for sizeable chunks of Day 1.

If I were to vote as I usually would, based solely on these criteria, I'd probably vote for distad right now. I don't think that's a good idea at this point based on his claim, though I'm definitely more sceptical of that than I originally was.

One thing that's sticking in my head is Xdaamno's vote on VitR at the end of the day. I don't like the way he made his only vote at deadline without immediate justification, but then when Nocmen followed Xdaamno asked when he started suspecting VitR. I suspect that he was either trying to discourage others from jumping on the wagon, or cautioning his buddy against an obviously wagony vote. I believe that either Nocmen or VitR is likely to be scum, and I generally like Nocmen less than VitR so far.

Vote: Nocmen

I agree with a Nocmen vote at this point, frankly. I will get into that more in my next post -- this one is for responding. As you saw at the end of D1, I play with a combination of logos and pathos. His surprise fit more on that pathos side. Frankly, it could have been legitimate, in that he was scum not expecting a second, "random" kill. As I said before, I didn't expect to see that, either.

As for my claim, I certainly expect you to be skeptical of it, because I don't know how to prove it--or at least prove it without getting modkilled. Regarding my sanity, at this point, I know that I am not an insane cop, as I got "Not mafia or cult" on the Glork investigation. I could still be a naive cop, though. Hopefully, I will find out for sure tonight.

Well, I guess I have time to add my thoughts on Nocmen on this post...

1) He's very vote-happy today; especially tough after two mislynches.
2) Erg0 mentioned this already, but it warrants mentioning again: Just because two confirmed townies suspected someone does not necessarily mean that the person is scum. I am suspicious of him also, but, again after two mislynches (out of two lynches, total), I would rather be more careful right out of the gate...
3) He came up with 150% worth of reasons for his vote on Erg0. (??)

Mainly, your aggressiveness is offputting and probably not the best plan of attack, when we likely have 3 anti-town roles out of 7 remaining.

[distad]

I always play agressive, but I only vote when I have a very good hunch on someone.

Really?

Because on p21, you voted for Erg0, then for BMQ, then back for Erg0...

[distad]

I don't like Flay's play today, it looks to me like he maybe had a gambit in mind, but realised as everyone else posted that the town wasn't going to buy it and thus dropped the whole thing. Even if distad proves to be a sane cop, his investigation result doesn't preclude Flay from being an SK.

QFT

The part that I don't understand is why he needed to hear from CES before he could discuss his plan. From what he divulged about said plan, nothing hinged remotely on CES's participation -- hell, he doesn't even

mention

CES.

Further, I buy the Flay as SK theory. His irritated tone from parts of D0, with his pushing me for claim on D1 and this follow-up to a theory actually make sense. And, as Erg0 pointed out, my finding him as "not mafia or cult" has no bearing on him being a serial killer or not.

I still think Nocmen is scum as well, but I'm not sure which is a better strategic target for us today.

[distad]

I'm leaning toward town for VitR. Xd had no reason to suspect that he would get killed during the evening and it seems like he was trying to create some suspicion for today on VitR.

Vote: Nocmen

I've previously stated my beliefs re: Nocmen and am now committing to them.

[distad]

I never like to vote based on who will or will not be around to discuss the game... CES clearly has not done this. I acknowledge your case on CES and will keep it under consideration as we get to the wire.

[distad]

Shit. Thats what happens when you write a post in the morning, expecting you will be wanted to claim, and not expecting the lurker to return and hammer.

Yeah... he hammered you within 2 minutes.

I was going to investigate you tonight anyway.

[distad]

Glrok, this is not a particularly strong scum tell. Get off Xdaamno and onto BMQ, please.

This might not be particularly strong scumtell, either. But why push away from XdaamnoScum so hard?

Ideally, we'll get a response prior to the next deadline.

[distad]

If someone is immune, would they come back "not mafia or cult"? That's what is holding me back here.

Erg0 - At what point will it be prudent to mention whom you tracked on N3?

Also... both of the methodical kills happened on the first person to post after daybreak. Nocmen was the first to post yesterday, but was lynched -- no methodical kill? Not sure of that significance, though. (BMQ was first today, also.)

Still, I like the thought, Erg0.

[distad]

We still have not heard from CES since he hammered Nocmen. Otherwise, we've heard from everybody.

I'm interested in BMQ's SK theory, also.

There was something about the hammer sequence that I didn't like. It seemed rehearsed.

CES (who had been gone for a full week from our game) follows three other people with a "we need a claim". 8 minutes later, Nocmen claims. CES hammers within TWO minutes. Then, in his very next post, immediately points out that it was a hammer, as if he didn't know it was a hammer beforehand. Then in another post, he clarifies that he is quicklynching so that no one else changes their mind about Nocmen. It seems obvious that he knows Nocmen is at -1, because he calls for a claim. But then he "forgets" that it was a hammer until afterwards. Then, he has a justification for the lynch immediately?

All of that in the span of 15 minutes!

I'm not certain that we're not in a quicklynch-lylo situation right now, so I'm not voting. But

HoS: CES

[distad]

Well, I'll buy the theory that we're done with the mafia. I don't see any other explanation for their not having a kill -- considering that BMQ blocked VitR (town).

I just have trouble figuring how we have only 2 scum/1 SK in a 12 player game, especially with so many pro-town roles. I don't know what other ratio we would have given the proceedings, though. My point was that I'm just not certain.

Since everything has been busted open already, any claim from Flay?

[distad]

If we go with option 1 then the SK is the other person that I haven't tracked yet, but I really think it's more likely to be Flay. I need to think through whether it's a good idea to divulge tonight's target, but you'll probably figure it out soon enough if we continue this discussion.

I think that CES's actions make it unlikely that he's the SK (his hammer would have meant certain death today if Nocmen was telling the truth), but if we do have a scum left alive then I wouldn't be surprised if it was him. I don't think he's today's lynch, though.

If we do have a scum left, what happened to yesterday's kill? Certainly THEY are not the random kill, otherwise XD would have woken up.

As for last night's tracking, I'm assuming it's CES. You said that he's alive. You're tracking Flay tonight. You already tracked BMQ. If you had tracked me, you would have seen that I investigated VitR and called me out for targeting the person who died. Where did he go?

[distad]

Actually... it's probably a good idea that you don't mention where he went. Not until he does, at least. And this appears to rule him out as a vanilla townie, as well.

[distad]

After seeing that he didn't target VitR, I read it as whether he went anywhere *else*.

Fair enough.

[distad]

I'm not really sure where I stand on this one.

I'm relatively comfortable with BMQ as town.

I like Flay's description of Erg0 as mafia/tracker. I actually like that a lot.

I have NO idea what significance the "sleepwalker" might have, though.

As for an SK, I'm torn between CES and Flay. I can see both sides of the argument, especially how CES has been effectively AWOL the whole game.

I don't want to be left with a Flay/CES/myself endgame with 2 town/1 SK, either. I don't want that choice. Still, is that better than a 1 scum/1 town/ 1 SK -- I would welcome that dilemma, though.

Hmmm...

Smog check time. I'll be back.

[distad]

I should probably specify that, to my knowledge, I have nothing to do with the lack of result on Flay or the lack of nightkill last night. If you're looking for my ability to do something that would help explain what's going on, you're not gonna find it.

Then what is your ability?

[distad]

Well, my next choice is Erg0. So, if he survives, at least I'll know a little more about him.

And...

I'm torn between Ergo and BMQ as final scum, but I think Flay's our SK. I'd still like to know who is after Flay on BMQ's list.
Huh? Ergo and BMQ are scum but I'm your vote? Or are you using 'scum' as Mafia?

That's not exactly what he said, Flay. He said that he was split between the two for that last scum and that you are the SK.

What if we no-lynch, block-Flay? With potentially two killers, it would still leave us at worst at 3 players. If we mislynch today, with two killers, it could get down to 2 players and game-over.

[distad]

Well, a third cop, huh? That's certainly interesting.

I really don't have an answer for sanity, as (and I've said this before) I've only received "not mafia or cult" answers thus far. Granted, all but one have been confirmed as correct, so I don't know.

I'm still curious of what you guys think about a no-lynch. I would normally never suggest it, but the numbers do line up.

[distad]

Vote: Flay

I didn't get to do too much on here this past weekend.

After begrudgingly ruling out the no-lynch and between CES's claim and your confirming it, I feel comfortable with this vote.

[distad]

What makes you think that CES in particular is naive? He and distad have both had all innocent results haven't they?

Shit, I am completely lost in this game.

Unvote, Vote: distad

- CES I'd

really

like to hear what sort of results you get. I just realized all this "Flay is the SK" stuff is partially predicated on distad's result not clearing me, which would be a fair scum tactic. I'm also not liking the idea of

three

Cops...

I don't know why you didn't get a result on me N2. What did it say, exactly? Presumably you didn't get blocked unless it was by Mafia, so perhaps my lack of a choice is confounding things? Have you tracked a Townie yet?

Yeah, I saw this one coming. The problem is that I can't figure any end-result in your role. It seems like a false-claim and your being an SK makes sense with my investigation results. I have posted everything in advance, and three of my four have been confirmed as accurate. I am, of course, suspicious of CES, but Erg0 is confirming it. I can't imagine two independent killers (mafia/SK) confirming each other. I do buy your mafia/tracker as a possibility for Erg0, but I am more comfortable with your lynch than rooting out a possibility with Erg0. Like I said, after I know your role, I'll be able to confirm my sanity, and I'm investigating Erg0 tonight.

[distad]

The next target's Erg0.

Distad: Why did you rule out your no-lynch idea? I think it merits discussion.

What if we no-lynch, block-Flay? With potentially two killers, it would still leave us at worst at 3 players. If we mislynch today, with two killers, it could get down to 2 players and game-over.

It's not a bad idea, but here's the thing. We have a 40% chance of hitting something today (assuming 1 more mafia & 1 SK). If we hit one of them, there will be a tomorrow.

If we miss, the odds are reasonably good that either both killers target the same person (1/9), or that one of them targets a killer (~5/9 -- the math on this one seems a bit fuzzy, though). The odds even go up a little that they target each other. And because everything is likely predetermined, it gets closer to actually random.

I will still entertain the thought, though.

Until then, all of the signs point to Flay being the right kill.

[distad]

So, according to everyone's posts:

Erg0 -> distad
BMQ -> Erg0
CES -> Erg0
distad -> Erg0

That's what we're doing tonight, right?

[distad]

I'm sure that's EXACTLY the case.

[distad]

I need to look back through at exactly why Erg0 believes that BMQ is clean.

I just realized something about his "plan" to no-lynch today and RB Flay to see if the SK has a kill.

If BMQ were mafia, it would all but *guarantee* his winning.

Get this:
5 people. No lynch.
If 1 NK --
4 people. Lynch Flay.
1 NK
2 people, scum win.

IGMEOY: BMQ

[distad]

After Erg0 worked through the trackings (BMQ to Simenon and CES to me), I see one of three options:
1) Erg0 and CES are both scum.
2) BMQ is mafia/roleblocker.
3) Erg0 is mafia/tracker.

If:
1) We're screwed and only waiting for the closing credits.

I'm still working out the other iterations. Feel free to chime in, though.

[distad]

Of course... but, you nailed BMQ on where he went (Nocmen and XD were still alive and could have executed the NK) and then you discovered that CES investigated me. If CES were any killing role last night, I wouldn't be here. Because the two of you confirm that he came to me, you either both have to be scum, or he is 99% innocent -- barring a 'no kill' choice last night.

If BMQ were mafia/RB, it would fit that he RB'd VitR and NK'd him also. There would not be anyone to refute the claim.

And what is the benefit of more than one person lying about the role? There would be a benefit for one person, but unless both are scum, why lie about it? LAL.

What I'm curious about is the lie-by-omission. Assuming that we progress to tomorrow, I fully believe that you are a tracker. I also believe that CES is a cop. Since we've had some blocks, I believe that BMQ is a RB. I know that I am a cop. So, either you held something back or BMQ did.

Time for another assumption... I'm going to assume that scum pre-submitted NKs. Based on that, CES and I will investigate you, and if you are scum, there is no reason for BMQ to lie about targetting you. You get RBd, and CES and I can debate your innocence (with our potentially differing results).

The plot thickens a little if someone dies tonight.

[distad]

Yeah. It's certainly reasonable.

My faith in CES comes from you, actually -- which would be the ultimate of ironies if you are the last scum. You confirmed that you tracked him to me last night. Assuming that we don't have a doc and there is but 1 scum, the fact that I did not die coupled with the previous confirmation prove that CES is not scum.

I guess that we might not have had any blocks. I was forgetting that he claims to not have targeted you when you claim your tracking failed.

Still, I'm down to one of the two of you. I don't see a practical reason why a pro-town player would lie about their role. Therefore, based on who (if anyone) dies tonight, we'll be able to pinpoint this down much better.

Of course, if scum do not have to pre-submit NKs, I'd wager a sawbuck that either CES or myself die tonight, and all other bets are off.

[distad]

That's really interesting.

Because I found a guilty in my inbox this morning. It was addressed to you.

[distad]

EBWOP:

Vote: Erg0

[distad]

I'm assuming you got innocent, CES?

[distad]

It just occurred to me... Lots of confusion is possible in a game feating Erg0 and Cogito

Ergo

Sum...

[distad]

EBWOP: featuring. <guh>

[distad]

Well, if we need the extra day, we're probably FUBAR. Still, you're next on my list, also.

[distad]

I was *WAY* more than comfortable with my guilty result on you.

[distad]

Yeah... I feel dumb for switching from Erg0 right before deadline, but I'm glad we ended up finishing it off correctly.

[distad]

Yeah, if you had convinced town that I was the SK instead of Flay, that night, you would have killed Flay and Flay would have killed CES, and it would have been a scum win.

Like I said, the ultimate irony is that I was fully comfortable with CES because of you.

[distad]

I would have tried the no NK/1-shot vig (to fit into the 'no pre-ordered list') and that you didn't want to use the 1-shot until you were more certain about whom to kill.

It would have been a stretch, certainly, but it would totally have fit with the cop's results and the non-NK.

[distad]

If I hadn't received the guilty, I would have taken things *considerably* slower that last day.

I kept catching myself thinking "But BMQ could have set the WIFOM!" but then I remembered the guilty and all concern washed away.