Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[Erg0]

I'll talk about the SK thing in a bit, but I have another question first:

BMQ, am I right in saying that you blocked Simenon night 1?

[BrianMcQueso]

BMQ, am I right in saying that you blocked Simenon night 1?

You're good at this. Yes, I blocked Simenon night 1.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Not voting: Erg0, Cogito Ergo Sum, Mr. Flay, BrianMcQueso, distad

Three

to lynch!

[Erg0]

I'm not quite that good - I'm the tracker, I saw you do it.

One final question: did you block me night 2?

[distad]

Glrok, this is not a particularly strong scum tell. Get off Xdaamno and onto BMQ, please.

This might not be particularly strong scumtell, either. But why push away from XdaamnoScum so hard?

Ideally, we'll get a response prior to the next deadline.

[BrianMcQueso]

I'm not quite that good - I'm the tracker, I saw you do it.

One final question: did you block me night 2?

No, I didn't block you night 2.

Tracker, eh?

[Erg0]

Ok, in that case I'm about 90% sure that Flay is the SK. I have results on two living players that eliminate them from consideration, you on night 1 and someone else on night 3. On night 2 I attempted to track Flay - the mod PM said that I tried but got no result. At first I thought that either he didn't do anything or I was blocked, but looking at the PM again now I think it's more likely that my attempt actually failed.

In other words, I suspect that the SK's random nature renders him immune to methodical investigation. Unless somebody else did something on night 2 to screw with my result, I think Flay's our man.

Based on my suspicions, I think we need to revise the plan. If the SK is immune to methodical investigations, he may also be immune to methodical blocks, meaning that BMQ's idea wouldn't work. The other thought I had is that all of these town power roles make me question the idea that there are only two scum. The single NK last night seems to indicate that (along with the fact that BMQ blocked a dead guy), but if there is one scum left and something screwy happened to stop their kill last night then we're in LyLo. After the way Mini 470 ended I've become very wary of easing up the scumhunting on the second last day of the game.

In conclusion:

Vote: Mr. Flay

[distad]

If someone is immune, would they come back "not mafia or cult"? That's what is holding me back here.

Erg0 - At what point will it be prudent to mention whom you tracked on N3?

Also... both of the methodical kills happened on the first person to post after daybreak. Nocmen was the first to post yesterday, but was lynched -- no methodical kill? Not sure of that significance, though. (BMQ was first today, also.)

Still, I like the thought, Erg0.

[Erg0]

"Not mafia or cult" would be a correct result for an SK.

I probably won't say who I tracked last night unless I need to (or everyone wants me to), just in case I'm wrong about Flay. BMQ's block on Sim was harmless because he'd claimed and Sim was dead, but this is info on a living player.

Interesting observation regarding the methodical kill. That would be kind of a weird mechanic though, I'd think it would be more likely for the first poster to be killed by the random killer rather than the methodical one(s).

[distad]

We still have not heard from CES since he hammered Nocmen. Otherwise, we've heard from everybody.

I'm interested in BMQ's SK theory, also.

There was something about the hammer sequence that I didn't like. It seemed rehearsed.

CES (who had been gone for a full week from our game) follows three other people with a "we need a claim". 8 minutes later, Nocmen claims. CES hammers within TWO minutes. Then, in his very next post, immediately points out that it was a hammer, as if he didn't know it was a hammer beforehand. Then in another post, he clarifies that he is quicklynching so that no one else changes their mind about Nocmen. It seems obvious that he knows Nocmen is at -1, because he calls for a claim. But then he "forgets" that it was a hammer until afterwards. Then, he has a justification for the lynch immediately?

All of that in the span of 15 minutes!

I'm not certain that we're not in a quicklynch-lylo situation right now, so I'm not voting. But

HoS: CES

[BrianMcQueso]

On night 2 I attempted to track Flay - the mod PM said that I tried but got no result.

I think you're drawing the wrong conclusion here. We have two possibilities:

1) Flay did not target anyone that night.
2) Flay is the Serial Killer, did target someone last night, and is immune to tracking. This immunity to tracking also extends to an immunity to roleblocking, and my plan will not work.

#1 makes more sense to me. [/occam's razor]

Erg0, who is your target tonight? I would understand if you'd rather not say publicly, as I'm hesitant about revealing my next target (after Flay).

@ Distad (and anyone else): If you do not believe we are at 4x Pro-Town, 1x Serial Killer at this point, what do you suggest we're looking at? I'm very open to ideas at this point.

[Erg0]

If we go with option 1 then the SK is the other person that I haven't tracked yet, but I really think it's more likely to be Flay. I need to think through whether it's a good idea to divulge tonight's target, but you'll probably figure it out soon enough if we continue this discussion.

I think that CES's actions make it unlikely that he's the SK (his hammer would have meant certain death today if Nocmen was telling the truth), but if we do have a scum left alive then I wouldn't be surprised if it was him. I don't think he's today's lynch, though.

[distad]

Well, I'll buy the theory that we're done with the mafia. I don't see any other explanation for their not having a kill -- considering that BMQ blocked VitR (town).

I just have trouble figuring how we have only 2 scum/1 SK in a 12 player game, especially with so many pro-town roles. I don't know what other ratio we would have given the proceedings, though. My point was that I'm just not certain.

Since everything has been busted open already, any claim from Flay?

[distad]

If we go with option 1 then the SK is the other person that I haven't tracked yet, but I really think it's more likely to be Flay. I need to think through whether it's a good idea to divulge tonight's target, but you'll probably figure it out soon enough if we continue this discussion.

I think that CES's actions make it unlikely that he's the SK (his hammer would have meant certain death today if Nocmen was telling the truth), but if we do have a scum left alive then I wouldn't be surprised if it was him. I don't think he's today's lynch, though.

If we do have a scum left, what happened to yesterday's kill? Certainly THEY are not the random kill, otherwise XD would have woken up.

As for last night's tracking, I'm assuming it's CES. You said that he's alive. You're tracking Flay tonight. You already tracked BMQ. If you had tracked me, you would have seen that I investigated VitR and called me out for targeting the person who died. Where did he go?

[Erg0]

I thought you'd work that out before long - yes, I targeted CES. He didn't target VitR, so that just leaves you and Flay as the possible SKs.

I won't tell you whether he went anywhere unless he wants me to do so (or I have reason to believe it's necessary). I tracked Flay on night 2, btw - I haven't said who I'm tracking tonight.

I have a theory on how we could still have mafia alive despite the lack of methodical kill last night. In fact, I have two theories but I'm not sure if either holds water. I think that hunting the SK is the way to go for now, because we're at least certain that he exists.

[distad]

Actually... it's probably a good idea that you don't mention where he went. Not until he does, at least. And this appears to rule him out as a vanilla townie, as well.

[Erg0]

I won't tell you

whether he went anywhere

unless he wants me to do so (or I have reason to believe it's necessary).

Bolded for emphasis.

[distad]

After seeing that he didn't target VitR, I read it as whether he went anywhere *else*.

Fair enough.

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry, had a meeting tonight, just got home a bit ago.

Unfortunately I have reason to need to know if CES has a Night Action before I claim/answer Erg0's supposition, but I may have an explanation. Sorry to be so opaque, but I think distad's continued survival and the short nights put paid to the idea of a freely-controlled kill.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Distad's continued survival isn't particularly strange if the non-methodical kill belongs to the SK, as distad can't find SKs. I still tend to think the kill is controlled but the SK probably sends in his kill during the day as opposed to the night(so that the nights don't last so long).

In addition, I don't mind sharing that I do have a night action considering that pretty much everyone seems too.

I don't think we should be too quick to rule out a final mafia member. The lack of kill can also have resulted from having to use his ability. Considering the amount of power the town seems to have, I would be surprised if the mafia doesn't have any.

[Erg0]

I agree with pretty much all of that, particularly the part about the SK. I also thought it was most likely that the SK was sending in kills during the day, especially considering that we had a gap of several hours between the hammer and the night scene on day 2. I mentioned on Day 1 that I didn't think distad was an SK target, and I still believe that.

Eagerly awaiting Flay's theory.

[Mr. Flay]

Alright then. If I'm understanding correctly, Erg0's theory is that I'm an SK who is Cop-immune (distad), Tracker-immune (Erg0), AND possibly Roleblocker immune? Furthermore, I can make my choices on the fly, but opted to kill

Xdaamno

over the claimed Doctor, and LML despite his claimed role and the possibility of a Doctor?? Occam's Razor says bullshit.

Unfortunately, the truth in this situation is almost as bizarre.

I don't know what I do.

I'm a

Sleepwalker

, and I didn't get to submit a list. Each Night I wake up in front of a different house; Stoofer's been sending me that information each dawn. I can't really see a pattern, but maybe you can:
N1: Seol
N2: distad
N3: CES

There's some flavor about it affecting my health (doesn't specify what kind), so if CES is a Psychiatrist or something, it's possible I can become useful. Otherwise, that either died with Glork, or I'm just an Improbable Role... but I'm not, so far as I know, a killer.

Seriously, though. Erg0's case is practically predicated on me being a super-powered yet totally inept Serial Killer. He's taking absence of evidence (no result) as evidence of guilt.

Vote: Erg0

[Mr. Flay]

Also, since damn-near-everyone has an ability, the idea of two Mafia vs. an SK and Super-Town seems laughable. So I'm guessing if Erg0 is a Tracker, he might still be Mafia. Or CES might be the final scum...

Another possibility is that there was one kill last night because both scum groups targeted the same kill.

[BrianMcQueso]

Another possibility is that there was one kill last night because both scum groups targeted the same kill.

Damn you and your reasonable explanations.

I also thought it was most likely that the SK was sending in kills during the day, especially considering that we had a gap of several hours between the hammer and the night scene on day 2.

Or, the moderator wasn't around to post the nightscene.

With Flay's sleepwalking targets, and the order that players are leaving and arriving, there's got to be something there we're not seeing. I'm not sure I'd be able to crack it (especially since I'm hesitant to spend time on it if it's a red herring), but I'm curious as to Stoofer's explanation once the game is over.

The lack of kill can also have resulted from having to use his ability.

I was unaware that mafia would have to give up their nightkill to use an ability (that's not typical, is it?), and if so, that any ability would be more beneficial than a nightkill.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Cop-immune (distad)

Silly Flay, distad can't find the SK.

Furthermore, I can make my choices on the fly, but opted to kill Xdaamno over the claimed Doctor, and LML despite his claimed role and the possibility of a Doctor??

This has absolutely nothing to do with you, Mr Flay. How does this relate to the notion that you're the SK, Flay?

I think Flay's our SK here. I don't really buy his claim. Brian, who are you targetting if we lynch Flay?

I was unaware that mafia would have to give up their nightkill to use an ability (that's not typical, is it?), and if so, that any ability would be more beneficial than a nightkill.

It really depends on the mod whether special mafia roles can do both. And using the ability might be important claimwise.