Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[Xdaamno]

If I see what he is saying, he will be dividing the group into two sections: The power-roles and the killing scum, and the townies and the non-killing scum? I don't see how that actually benifets the town to an extent.

[Xdaamno]

Are

people

role claiming this early?

Where did you get the idea multiple people are roleclaiming?

[Xdaamno]

EBWOP: Also, /confirm, since I realise I haven't literally said it yet.

[Xdaamno]

okay i reckon we can turn this night start into a day start by using the vig's kill as the d0 lynch. i am of the opinion that this would be a good thing - although there are downsides the benefit is i think well worth it. thoughts?

Personally, I seriously doubt there's a vig in this game at all, due to the methodical way of actions... Though I guess it can't hurt to decide upon a vig 'lynch', and if there isn't one then we've hardly done ourselves any harm.

[Xdaamno]

I've finished 2 games, I have also been lynched in another but it not at game over, but am playing 3 others including this! But I don't know any other Mafia site! I'm getting the feeling that the experienced players don't like me because I'm kind of new!

The correct play would probably be to call appeal to emotion (?), but I don't see people of his experience performing things like that very often...

And I

seriously

doubt anyone would hate you because you're new XD

[Xdaamno]

You've basically just repeated what everyone else has said, IMO...

[Xdaamno]

You think I read what other people post?

Oh, in that case, well done!

[Xdaamno]

Personally, I wasn't ready to cast much suspiscion on LmL after the flawed course of action presented near the start (I could imagine a town player doing this), but after statements like:

You're defense of Flay is noted, Seol.

, I'm not so sure. I didn't take it exactly that way, so this could be twisting words.

Speak English or Die, Lee.

Hm. I've not heard that one before

[Xdaamno]

I'm assuming you're proposing this because someone (the scum) might predict the lists (probably of the doctor)? I feel if the doctor thinks he's up for the WIFOM, he should go for it.

[Xdaamno]

EBWOP: Hmm, bad wording there. I meant if there was a way he could be sure it would be better than randomization...

Though how would randomization of the doctor help? He's a hit or miss guy. I assume I'm reading what you're saying wrong.

[Xdaamno]

Xdaamno: I'm not sure why you've chosen to focus on the case of a

Doctor

randomizing choices. Anyway, to answer your question -- the Doctor's job would be to predict the scums' targets each night, and to try to protect against their kills. There's a pretty massive WIFOM game going on, so I fail to see how carefully choosing a list D0 would really be all that beneficial for a Doctor anyway. As far as other roles go, they fall into a similar situation, especially with roles that involve information. Of the most "typical" roles, the Roleblocker is probably the one that I think matters the least. I have no idea how I would go about choosing my list if I were a Roleblocker. I donno... it seems to me that all of the town's lists are going to be underinformed, whereas the scums will have at least a decent idea of how to lay out their gameplan. I'd like to try to throw a wrench into that potential gameplan, if possible.

I assumed the randomization was some form of counter to the scum outguessing you? The doctor is the only role that directly counters the scum (Or atleast I didn't take into account the RB at the time), so I just assumed that'd be what would be randomized.

[Xdaamno]

(And what's wrong with Flay's avatar?)

[Xdaamno]

Hm, sorry.

Targeted people die, right?

Why wouldn't you reveal who you want to target?

Think about this. The mafia and SK are anti-town. They do not wish for the town to have much info, they'd rather keep it to themselves, tie everyone in knots, and win.

What possible gain could they achieve from letting everyone else know their plan?

With so many possible kills, wouldn't having all the townies target the same person work the best? Also, having a doctor protect that person would really limit the kills...

... The townie's don't target anyone, this isn't texas justice.

[Xdaamno]

distad, I'd say the chance of a mafia watcher in this game would be

smaller

than the average chance of having a watcher in any other game (Due to the list-orientated play, which a watcher can't have much foresight on); or atleast there's no evidence to suggest there would be one.

I mean, if that's the case, proposing his theory makes complete sense. Town powers would waste the N1 picks on someone who certainly would NOT be scum-targeted, AND scum would know who the power roles are...

If vanilla townies don't have any lists to make, then his theory can't make sense (And they don't).

[Xdaamno]

Argh! Could we STOP with the claims please???

...

Overreaction, but I guess it won't help to talk about it anymore.

[Xdaamno]

Back from a mini-vacation, progress isn't as bad as it could be. Signal/Noise is doing well, but on page 5 I obviously attracted some attention.

VitaminR notes my apparent over-cautious play in 112. There's no logical defence I can provide against that, so I'll just say fair enough. I'll make a point not to rely on everyone else's suspiscions rather than going with my own gut (That might be a character fault of mine, I'm thinking).

In 120, Simenon mentioned my reply. The truth is there wasn't much of a way I

could

respond to that post, so I went with a shitty sarcastic remark.

distad's 123 seems to be flat-out wrong, IMO. His speculation on the vig:

Further, I'd be willing to bet that we DO have a vig in here. Stoof made a point of clarifying the rule that all power roles have to send in a list *unless otherwise specified in the role PM*. There probably is that provision in the vig's pm.

seems to be grasping, and judging by Stoof's tweaking and perfecting the rules I'd bet he had that base covered from the off. Not sure what scum would benifet from pointing this out in the first place, however, so IGMEOY.

Looking onto page 6, most of this stuff seems to already have been pointed out regarding distad; but of the views given, it's more mixed than I expected.

BMQ's rather unhinged on his attention of the game atm. Does this mean he's scum? I see more town players playing loose than scum players, TBH.

[Xdaamno]

BMQ's rather unhinged on his attention of the game atm. Does this mean he's scum? I see more town players playing loose than scum players, TBH.

My concerns with BMQ aren't that he's playing loose, but that he's promoting discussion which actively helps the scum and hurts the town - and in a manner which looked like he'd given it plenty of thought.

When you put it that way, it makes more sense, I guess.

[Xdaamno]

I thought the flaws were fairly obvious, to be honest.

[Xdaamno]

Randomly Slain

?

[Xdaamno]

What, are you implying I 'randomly slew' someone and then newbishlsy went 'Oh No!', after it?

You are? Oh -_-'

[Xdaamno]

That's what I meant, really.

[Xdaamno]

I thought you FOSed me for my comment, as in I was doing the 'well done doc' thing. That's not what you meant?

[Xdaamno]

From the off when you FOSed me, I thought the only reason could of been because you were implying I could of been some sort of randomkiller. I didn't consider otherwise.

[Xdaamno]

Way to dig yourself a hole...

I'll give you a run-down of my thought process...

You FOS'd me. Obviously, it was relating to the fact I questioned the random killing out loud. The only explanation I could think of was that you thought of the possibility I was the randomkiller and did the 'well done doc' newb play. At the time atleast, I didn't think you could be accusing me of anything

but

that.

My next post didn't consider any other option, so I acknowledged it out loud.

From then I get a little lost in what you're suggesting. I don't see any other reason for your FOS, so my comments are justified, are they not?

[Xdaamno]

EBWOP: Oh, is blue font reserved for the mod? >.<

It was meant to be a PW-style thought thingy.

[Xdaamno]

I often use the tell that Glork refers to as a basis for an early vote, but it rarely carries through to a lynch without further evidence. Of course, evidence comes through pressure...

Vote: Xdaamno

FoS: Mr Flay

, pending his response to VitR's response to him.

Elaborate on why you think what I said is a scum tell

at all

, because I still have no clue.

No.

I don't feel it has merit.

Okay. Why?

Burden of Proof?

Hmm, I thought I remembered another Erg0 tell I was going to add to this, but I can't find it.

[Xdaamno]

I often use the tell that Glork refers to as a basis for an early vote, but it rarely carries through to a lynch without further evidence. Of course, evidence comes through pressure...

Vote: Xdaamno

FoS: Mr Flay

, pending his response to VitR's response to him.

Elaborate on why you think what I said is a scum tell

at all

, because I still have no clue.

The reason that it's a tell is that really served no purpose other than to visibly demonstrate how surprised you were at the night's results. If you'd gone on to express a theory or do pretty much anything else that would be fine, but as it stands the sole purpose of your post appears to have been to say, "Look everyone! I'm surprised!" I can't think of why you would think that you'd need to tell us that, unless you wanted to visibly distance yourself from the kill(s).

Why, would the town have been better of if I had

not

said it? It was merely almost-out-of-game speculation. You're a little paranoid if you feel someone has sinister intent whenever they express emotion, of all things.

Hmm, I thought I remembered another Erg0 tell I was going to add to this, but I can't find it.

Thanks, that's ever so helpful.

OK, so you're suggesting my post would of had more helpful information if I left that out? It's not going to do anyone any harm.

I find it strange that you chose to answer me rather than Glork, considering he was the one that raised the point in the first place.

Well, I apologize. Your post just caught my eye, that's all.

[Xdaamno]

I think I've come from the wrong direction when explaining this. A long time ago (2005ish) JEEP did some statistical analysis on completed games and found that people expressing disappointment/surprise/elation at the results from the previous night are more likely to be scum. The explanation that I gave above worked backwards from this result to provide my interpretation of why scum do this. The fact that scum do this is statistically proven, and is not open to reasonable argument. The prevalence of this has diminished since the tell was published, since people have obviously eliminated this from their play. However, it does still happen.

Fair enough, that is most likely true. While I feel this case differs in that the 'results from the previous night' were very unusual and thus I was hoping to spark some speculation, I can't defend against that. I can only say, as a scum tell, this time it was wrong (But obviously I can't prove it).

[Xdaamno]

1. I don't see how Xdaamno being surprised at the flavour (rather than the fact that there were two kills) makes any difference. I certainly don't remember ever drawing that distinction myself.

If anybody isn't clear, the only reason I was surprised was because of the flavour, hence the '

randomly slain

'? If you interpret it otherwise, I could see how it could be a scum tell, but I can assure you it was about the flavour.

[Xdaamno]

Simenon, is that completely based on your SK reasoning?

[Xdaamno]

Right now, I think Sim is probably town... for the record.

You've been 0 for 2 so far, Distad. Wanna try again?

*goodposting*

Also, why Simenon over me? I've been on Flay all day. I'm getting a strong "scum defending scum"-vibe here.

FOS: distad

Glork and Sim are probably town. I thought was pretty sure CES was town earlier, but his Glork vote is bothering me. Nocmen I want to hear more of, though I had a good impression of him earlier. I'm neutral on Erg0, he hasn't really done anything to worry me. distad, Xdaamno and BMQ all seem mildly scummy to me (I order them that way in terms of scumminess).

I agree with you regarding distad for the most part, but I'm actually interested in Glork at this point. It could be playstyle, but he's been rather vague.

[Xdaamno]

Simenon's post woke me up a bit; I don't think I've commented on the BMQ wagon much.

Too be honest, I'm not seeing the vibes here. Some of the 'scumtells' he's performed I don't see why a scum player would do them more often than a town player (Apart from the Day 0 idea, IIRC). Despite the fact Glork shares my views, I think, Glork's still being pretty vague and I have my eye on him.

distad's going up on my scumdar a little. I've been watching him for most of this game and while I didn't get many vibes, there were some bad judgement calls or wrong feeling, IIRC. Lately I've been liking his posts even less, and Erg0 put it in black-and-white with:

Distad, you've voted for four different people already today, and actually went from voting Simenon (for wagoning Flay) to jumping onto the next wagon he started. It looks like you just found a wagon that you thought might have legs, so you jumped on it without going through the intervening phase of concluding that Sim wasn't scum. I think you want to just get any lynch you can.

[Xdaamno]

The deadline is in 2 days. The flay wagon looks very shaky/circumstantial compared to the BMQ wagon (As I said, the BMQ wagon already looks iffy so it's relative), so BMQ would be a more solid lynch IMO. No deadline at all would be preferrable, since I wouldn't place a bet on any player being scum at the moment.

[Xdaamno]

EBWOP: Also, erg0, what makes you comfortable with my lynch? I haven't heard anything about that before

[Xdaamno]

I think now is the time to say what person looks scummy, xd.

...?

[Xdaamno]

As much as distad is hovering near the top of my scum list, I'm inclined to believe his claim; based on the fact he said 'He'd probably be nightkilled' (Any scum would probably be much more careful when they say things like that, due to the implications of non-methodical scum).

I want to hear more from Xdaamno, Nocmen, BMQ, and VitR. I have a feeling that at least a couple of our scums are in that group. Erg0 could be scum, too -- more likely Methodical scum than "Random" scum, if so.

Hm. 'Atleast a couple' makes it sound like you have the whole game figured out, Glork; anything in particular you want me to comment on?

[Xdaamno]

EBWOP: Obvobv I think there's probably non-methodical scum/SK, but stating it would be unusual for the scum themselves, IMO.

[Xdaamno]

Well, it works in his favor if

he

is the non-methodical scum, which is exactly why he was being strung up in the first place.

Xdaamno, I don't have the whole game figured out. Saying "at least a couple" in a group of 4-5 isn't really

that

strong a statement. But if I accept Distad's claim as true, accept Flay as an innocent, and know that I'm protown, then I'm looking at a group of about seven players. I'm just naming my top remaining suspects and positing that the scums are probably in that group. Do you have a problem with this?

Hm. I was half-joking, so don't take the statement too seriously (It was just idle speculation).

Who are your top suspects, Xd, and why?

Always a hard one when it's presented up-front. If I had to, I'd go with:

#1: VitaminR
#2: Glork
#3: Not sure... Brian/distad/CES

Off the top of my head, that is.

Why haven't you placed a vote on anyone if the deadline is this near? Will you be around later to place a vote?

I have no lynch-worthy suspects at the moment; just favourites for a forced deadline lynch.

The deadline should be at 8 in the morning for me, and I won't be on till around 4 or 5, so I'll make a vote tonight, thanks for reminding me (Admittedly I would of forgotten otherwise -_-).

[Xdaamno]

EBWOP: GMT, like Stoof ^.^

[Xdaamno]

I'm pretty content we'll be able to get 3 or more votes on someone before the deadline, therefore I'll go with the most logical option, and head off.

Vote: VitaminR

[Xdaamno]

Way to respond to what I was saying.

Eh, I couldn't see much that was relevant to your defence, or particularly worth commenting on. Did you expect a response to a particular thing?

I think the main problem is with VitR is that now, with his response and vote to BMQ, it is very suspicious, something like "Well, I can't get on the first bandwagon I want, so I'll join the second one".

VitR, another reason for your suspect is what your previous person said. I pointed this out in my last post, ojpower's posts seemed as if he slipped up to saying the people he would target would die.

What's the results of this re-read, and at what point did you start to get onto Vit in the first place?

And now I'm

really

going... in that irritating cliche way.

[Xdaamno]

I'm here for like 5 minutes, hasn't the deadline passed?

[Xdaamno]

(Oh, it ended right here, I think XD)

[Xdaamno]

Go scum

[Xdaamno]

Not too happy with the result, but good game, guys ^.^

Loved the setup, and I'm not complaining about balance. No-one on our team played perfectly.