Ok, maybe this is going to be harder than I thought.
The reason I
initially
voted for TBS yesterday was his speedy vote on Oman on day 1. I thought there was most likely at least one scum on the wagon at the point when I voted for Oman, and the other most likely suspect (Niv) was dead and town by day 2. When Gator and Jimmy piled on and he didn't get speedlynched I became fairly certain that he actually was scum, hence the reason that I was eventually happy to lynch him in his absence.
Post 588: Here's why Haut Boy/Shanba is firmly at the top of my list: process of elimination. Jimmy R is semi-confirmed, soupfly doesn't look like scum based on TBS distancing himself from his wagon. That leaves Streeflo, Eroto and Haut Boy - two of those three
must
be scum based on the evidence. I think Haut Boy was clearly the scummiest of those three - do you disagree?
Streeflo and Eroto hardly interact with TBS on day 1, whereas Haut Boy is mentioned by TBS in several places as a second scum candidate without any meaningful follow-up. This looks like classic scum distancing to me, and I thought it warranted a first vote, since I would need at least one townie to agree with me for Haut Boy to get lynched. I don't think this was strong enough evidence to lynch, but I certainly think it's good enough for a first vote
because there were no better suspects to put my vote on
.
My main motivation for my vote was to prompt some reactions, since we seemed to be at a standstill at that point. Post 594 just adds to the argument - it's circumstantial evidence, but the fact that Haut Boy's suspicions were all against townies does strengthen the case against him.
Post 605 is intended to expose the inherent problem with Eroto's argument. I don't necessarily think that what he said was scummy, but it was certainly WIFOM.
On post 609:
Erotomachia wrote:All I'm trying to say is that people are overconfident in Haut Boy's scumminess. The only argument against him is that he's been inactive.
This is a massive misrepresentation of my vote. I
never, ever
said that Haut Boy's inactivity was scummy. I clearly based my vote on the analysis of his day 1 play that I posted earlier, but Eroto (and others) chose to ignore that and construct a strawman to argue against instead.
If you're going to vote for me I'd like for you to come up with something better than me placing the first vote on an inactive player, thus placing him in no danger of being lynched without another townie. I'm curious why you're so unsure about Streeflo by comparison, considering he made the second vote and actually put Haut Boy in quicklynch territory?
Also, please stop sucking up to Jimmy. He may be the most confirmed townie, but he doesn't have any special information and his opinion isn't any more valid than anyone else's, except to the extent that you can be fairly sure that he's not being deliberately deceptive. He thought there was merit to your meta and he was wrong, so there's no guarantee he'll be right about this either.