Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)


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Post Post #650 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2007 5:00 pm

Post by soupfly »

Post 587
Erg0 wrote:Notes on TBS, isolating his posts and focusing on his behaviour towards other players:

0. Random vote soupfly

1. Minor attack soupfly

2. Unvote in face of wagon on soupfly

3. Doesn't want to vote Langley (Jimmy), throw-in comment on Zakk (Haut Boy)

4. Thinks either Gator or soupfly is scum (prefers Gator)

6. Vote Langley (Jimmy) for lurking + lack of substance

7. IGMEOY Zakk (Haut Boy) for much the same reason

9. Distances from soupfly wagon

10. Puts Gator second on scum list, suspicion of Langley (Jimmy), Zakk (Haut Boy), ok with Oman, Jenter, soupfly

11. Again distancing from soupfly wagon. Vote Gator

14. Much the same as 11, not suspicious of Streeflo

16. IGMEOY Oman for townie claim

20. Pushes for Gator's mason buddy to claim

23. Withdraws plan due to flawed reasoning (caught in a gambit?)

25. IGMEOY Oman, mild suspicions

26. Unvote, FOS Oman

29. Vote Oman (4th vote on fast wagon)

Conclusions in a second.
Post 588
Erg0 wrote:Breakdown by player:

Erotomachia - barely mentioned by TBS, answered a question from him at one point but that's it.

Jimmy R (Langley) - catches a vote for lurking and posting little substance.

soupfly - initially looks like TBS is distancing from him, but later comments where TBS disowns the wagon seem to indicate that he didn't want to be implicated in wagoning a townie.

Streeflo - also barely mentioned.

Haut Boy - looks suspicious because TBS is soft on his lurking and lack of substance while voting Langley (Jimmy R) for the same.

Based on that I'm thinking that the suspect list is narrowed to Haut Boy, Erotomachia and Streeflo, with Haut Boy firmly in the top spot. I'm going to do another analysis of posts by other players regarding TBS, which I expect will be illuminating.
Post 594
Erg0 wrote:Having flicked through Haut Boy's posts I'm still putting him at the top of my list. Pretty much everyone he expressed suspicion of has turned out to be a townie, with the exception being soupfly, who I like as a townie for the reasons stated earlier. He hasn't posted on site since the 11th, so his stance on the Day 2 vote is more or less irrelevant since he appears not to have been here for it.

I agree that he needs to be replaced, so we can at least get a claim out of him. It would take something big to stop me from voting for him, though.
Post 605
Erg0 wrote:Interesting theory - so you're saying that if Haut Boy were scum then there'd be one person (his scumbuddy) defending him or at least trying to prevent him from being lynched.

Isn't that what
you're
doing?
Post 609
Erg0 wrote:
Erotomachia wrote:<snip>

All I'm trying to say is that people are overconfident in Haut Boy's scumminess. The only argument against him is that he's been inactive.
Erg0 wrote:All the signs point to Haut Boy
What signs?! He hasn't posted in 2 weeks!

I'm starting to wonder about the possibility of soupfly/Erg0 scumpair. Soupfly is still at the top of my scum list. For now, however, I'd like to hear more from Jimmy R (since he's the only confirmed innocent and someone we can trust) about what he thinks of the players besides Haut Boy.
Look at my posts 587, 588 and 594. I'm not voting on impulse, I genuinely think that Haut Boy's relationship with TBS was the most scummy. His inactivity is neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned.

Seriously, soupfly is the worst person you could try to pair me with besides maybe Jimmy. Haut Boy tried to distance himself massively from soupfly's wagon on day 1, I don't see him doing that if he was bussing his buddy.
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Post Post #651 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2007 5:37 pm

Post by soupfly »

Sorry for repost, I meant to click preview instead of submit...

Post 587
Erg0 wrote:Notes on TBS, isolating his posts and focusing on his behaviour towards other players:

0. Random vote soupfly

1. Minor attack soupfly

2. Unvote in face of wagon on soupfly

3. Doesn't want to vote Langley (Jimmy), throw-in comment on Zakk (Haut Boy)

4. Thinks either Gator or soupfly is scum (prefers Gator)

6. Vote Langley (Jimmy) for lurking + lack of substance

7. IGMEOY Zakk (Haut Boy) for much the same reason

9. Distances from soupfly wagon

10. Puts Gator second on scum list, suspicion of Langley (Jimmy), Zakk (Haut Boy), ok with Oman, Jenter, soupfly

11. Again distancing from soupfly wagon. Vote Gator

14. Much the same as 11, not suspicious of Streeflo

16. IGMEOY Oman for townie claim

20. Pushes for Gator's mason buddy to claim

23. Withdraws plan due to flawed reasoning (caught in a gambit?)

25. IGMEOY Oman, mild suspicions

26. Unvote, FOS Oman

29. Vote Oman (4th vote on fast wagon)

Conclusions in a second.
I must again admit that I didn't see the reasons for a TBS vote to start D2. I've done a reread of TBS's posts and still don't understand how it was such a slam dunk for Day 2. As I've mentioned numerous times, I voted for TBS once it was mathematically probable that he was scum. Imo, looking at TBS doesn't tell us much of anything really...at least not me. For this reason I'm tempted to believe eroto's "I think we lost post" because unless you look at the math of the situation, it looked like a quick lynch on a player who was not a slam dunk candidate for scum.

Post 588
Erg0 wrote:Breakdown by player:

Erotomachia - barely mentioned by TBS, answered a question from him at one point but that's it.

Jimmy R (Langley) - catches a vote for lurking and posting little substance.

soupfly - initially looks like TBS is distancing from him, but later comments where TBS disowns the wagon seem to indicate that he didn't want to be implicated in wagoning a townie.

Streeflo - also barely mentioned.

Haut Boy - looks suspicious because TBS is soft on his lurking and lack of substance while voting Langley (Jimmy R) for the same.

Based on that I'm thinking that the suspect list is narrowed to Haut Boy, Erotomachia and Streeflo, with Haut Boy firmly in the top spot. I'm going to do another analysis of posts by other players regarding TBS, which I expect will be illuminating.
To me, there is nothing in this analysis that would put Haut Boy (Shanba)
firmly
in the top spot.

Post 594
Erg0 wrote:Having flicked through Haut Boy's posts I'm still putting him at the top of my list. Pretty much everyone he expressed suspicion of has turned out to be a townie, with the exception being soupfly, who I like as a townie for the reasons stated earlier. He hasn't posted on site since the 11th, so his stance on the Day 2 vote is more or less irrelevant since he appears not to have been here for it.

I agree that he needs to be replaced, so we can at least get a claim out of him. It would take something big to stop me from voting for him, though.
Now Erg0's making the case that Haut Boy is clearly scum as he states that "it would take something big to stop me from voting him" but unfortunately I do not see a clear case against him.

Post 605
Erg0 wrote:Interesting theory - so you're saying that if Haut Boy were scum then there'd be one person (his scumbuddy) defending him or at least trying to prevent him from being lynched.

Isn't that what
you're
doing?
This refers to Eroto's theory about the counter wagon on Hautboy. Not really seeing much in this exchange unless we want to get into WIFOM.

Post 609
Erg0 wrote:
Erotomachia wrote:<snip>

All I'm trying to say is that people are overconfident in Haut Boy's scumminess. The only argument against him is that he's been inactive.
Erg0 wrote:All the signs point to Haut Boy
What signs?! He hasn't posted in 2 weeks!

I'm starting to wonder about the possibility of soupfly/Erg0 scumpair. Soupfly is still at the top of my scum list. For now, however, I'd like to hear more from Jimmy R (since he's the only confirmed innocent and someone we can trust) about what he thinks of the players besides Haut Boy.
Look at my posts 587, 588 and 594. I'm not voting on impulse, I genuinely think that Haut Boy's relationship with TBS was the most scummy. His inactivity is neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned.

Seriously, soupfly is the worst person you could try to pair me with besides maybe Jimmy. Haut Boy tried to distance himself massively from soupfly's wagon on day 1, I don't see him doing that if he was bussing his buddy.
Again, I don't see how all the signs are pointing to haut boy.

I've stated my reasons (metagaming argument) why I think Haut Boy was town. Both Erg0 and Streetflo dismissed this notion pretty quickly although Jimmy (confirmed townie) thought it was an interesting point. At this point I was willing to concede that maybe it wasn't a good argument but then came the rush to vote by Erg0 and Streetflo. I really can't understand why they would do this if they were town. This smells of opportunistic scum going after the easiest target: an absent lurker. This is where everything got turned around in my opinion. Going for a quick lynch of an inactive player in Lylo is not town play.

Then Shanba showed up and started to defend himself. This put Erg0 and Streetflow in the unfortunate position of having to defend their questionable actions vis-a-vis a now active player. I think what Shanba has been posting is pretty sound so there's nothing there to shift suspicion towards him.

I am going to push for an Erg0 lynch because the case he has made against Shanba is weak and smells of an opportunistic quick lynch. At this point I believe Shanba is town and Erg0 is scum. Streetflo and Eroto are unclear although I think that Eroto is most likely town in this case.

Jimmy, can you confirm if what I've written here makes sense? We could sure use your input right about now.
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Post Post #652 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2007 6:21 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Ok, maybe this is going to be harder than I thought.

The reason I
initially
voted for TBS yesterday was his speedy vote on Oman on day 1. I thought there was most likely at least one scum on the wagon at the point when I voted for Oman, and the other most likely suspect (Niv) was dead and town by day 2. When Gator and Jimmy piled on and he didn't get speedlynched I became fairly certain that he actually was scum, hence the reason that I was eventually happy to lynch him in his absence.

Post 588: Here's why Haut Boy/Shanba is firmly at the top of my list: process of elimination. Jimmy R is semi-confirmed, soupfly doesn't look like scum based on TBS distancing himself from his wagon. That leaves Streeflo, Eroto and Haut Boy - two of those three
must
be scum based on the evidence. I think Haut Boy was clearly the scummiest of those three - do you disagree?

Streeflo and Eroto hardly interact with TBS on day 1, whereas Haut Boy is mentioned by TBS in several places as a second scum candidate without any meaningful follow-up. This looks like classic scum distancing to me, and I thought it warranted a first vote, since I would need at least one townie to agree with me for Haut Boy to get lynched. I don't think this was strong enough evidence to lynch, but I certainly think it's good enough for a first vote
because there were no better suspects to put my vote on
.

My main motivation for my vote was to prompt some reactions, since we seemed to be at a standstill at that point. Post 594 just adds to the argument - it's circumstantial evidence, but the fact that Haut Boy's suspicions were all against townies does strengthen the case against him.

Post 605 is intended to expose the inherent problem with Eroto's argument. I don't necessarily think that what he said was scummy, but it was certainly WIFOM.

On post 609:
Erotomachia wrote:All I'm trying to say is that people are overconfident in Haut Boy's scumminess. The only argument against him is that he's been inactive.
This is a massive misrepresentation of my vote. I
never, ever
said that Haut Boy's inactivity was scummy. I clearly based my vote on the analysis of his day 1 play that I posted earlier, but Eroto (and others) chose to ignore that and construct a strawman to argue against instead.

If you're going to vote for me I'd like for you to come up with something better than me placing the first vote on an inactive player, thus placing him in no danger of being lynched without another townie. I'm curious why you're so unsure about Streeflo by comparison, considering he made the second vote and actually put Haut Boy in quicklynch territory?

Also, please stop sucking up to Jimmy. He may be the most confirmed townie, but he doesn't have any special information and his opinion isn't any more valid than anyone else's, except to the extent that you can be fairly sure that he's not being deliberately deceptive. He thought there was merit to your meta and he was wrong, so there's no guarantee he'll be right about this either.
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Post Post #653 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2007 6:54 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Also, just to clear something up:
Shanba wrote:Ok. I re-read through Erotomachia's posts.

Early on I get a bit of a "sit on the sidelines" vibe from him which made me feel that he might be scum. Then, however, I came across this post:
Erotomachia wrote:I think we lost.
This, to me, fairly heavily indicates townie. It reminds me of when sometimes a townie thinks he has been lynched then says "bah. go town." I've never yet seen a scum do that.
Shanba wrote:
Erg0 wrote:Ok, my problem with Shanba: all of those arguments are based on the assumption that you're town. You may know that, but nobody else does. Your reasons for Eroto being town are:

1. His "I think we lost" post (which I think is a scumtell, or at best a null tell - this is a massive reach on your part)
2. The fact that he's not your scumbuddy (which only you and he know for sure, so we can't be expected to just take your word for it)
What I explained were my reasons for thinking he was town. Obviously I can't expect you to take the fact that he didn't vote me as confirmation of his townieness it was one of the things that factored in my thought process as a townie on who to lynch.

However, with regards to point one, I believe you are completely and utterly wrong. Why would it be a scumtell? I've explained that it's the sort of behaviour I would expect from a townie and all you have stated is "no it's not, it's a scumtell". I'm speaking from personal experience here, so if you wish to refute my point you will ahve to provide me with something a little stronger.
You compare Eroto's post with a "bah" post by a lynched townie, but this is not a valid comparison. A "bah" post comes after the townie is dead and will have their alignment confirmed. They have no further stake in the game and no reason to be anything other than honest, since the facts will soon be revealed anyway. They are also fully aware of what just happened, because they know their own alignment.

None of these points is true of Eroto in this situation. If you want to speak about comparable situations, I have seen scum place a vote on another scum after they're lynched to try and make themselves look better. I've seen scum say "I think we just lynched a townie" after just that has happened because they want to look like they're dismayed.
That's
why I think this is a scumtell. Even if you disagree, you have to agree that it would be completely WIFOM to say it was a town tell.
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Post Post #654 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2007 9:21 pm

Post by Jimmy R »

I'm still not 100% about this but I'm feeling a little under pressure so here's what I'm thinking right now:

Erg0
I see what Soupfly is saying and it makes some sense. I'm still not convinced about his reasons for voting for Haut Boy/Shanba..he said he found him more scummy than Streeflo and Ero, which isn't a great reason as I don't think any of those 3 have been that scummy.

Erotomachia
Doesn't think Shanba is scum, which I'm leaning towards as well. If it wasn't lylo we'd get good info from lynching Ero based on his past posts, but we can't do that now obviously

soupfly
Pushing for an Ergo lynch pretty strongly now. I agree that Ergo's actions towards Shanba could be construed as going for an oppurtunistic lynch but I'm not totally convinced yet. He also seems really keen for my input as confirmed town, which I could understand but it could also be a scum ploy to seem innocent (a bit WIFOM, I know)

Streeflo
Im finding it difficult to take a stand on Streeflo, he's not done anything too controversial which makes me think town or scum flying under the radar...I really don't know here.

Shanba
I think he's done quite well since coming in. I have to admit I was getting swayed towards a Haut Boy lynch but I think that's probably the wrong thing to do now.
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Post Post #655 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2007 10:22 pm

Post by Shanba »

Erg0 wrote:Also, just to clear something up:
Shanba wrote:Ok. I re-read through Erotomachia's posts.

Early on I get a bit of a "sit on the sidelines" vibe from him which made me feel that he might be scum. Then, however, I came across this post:
Erotomachia wrote:I think we lost.
This, to me, fairly heavily indicates townie. It reminds me of when sometimes a townie thinks he has been lynched then says "bah. go town." I've never yet seen a scum do that.
Shanba wrote:
Erg0 wrote:Ok, my problem with Shanba: all of those arguments are based on the assumption that you're town. You may know that, but nobody else does. Your reasons for Eroto being town are:

1. His "I think we lost" post (which I think is a scumtell, or at best a null tell - this is a massive reach on your part)
2. The fact that he's not your scumbuddy (which only you and he know for sure, so we can't be expected to just take your word for it)
What I explained were my reasons for thinking he was town. Obviously I can't expect you to take the fact that he didn't vote me as confirmation of his townieness it was one of the things that factored in my thought process as a townie on who to lynch.

However, with regards to point one, I believe you are completely and utterly wrong. Why would it be a scumtell? I've explained that it's the sort of behaviour I would expect from a townie and all you have stated is "no it's not, it's a scumtell". I'm speaking from personal experience here, so if you wish to refute my point you will ahve to provide me with something a little stronger.
You compare Eroto's post with a "bah" post by a lynched townie, but this is not a valid comparison. A "bah" post comes after the townie is dead and will have their alignment confirmed. They have no further stake in the game and no reason to be anything other than honest, since the facts will soon be revealed anyway. They are also fully aware of what just happened, because they know their own alignment.

None of these points is true of Eroto in this situation. If you want to speak about comparable situations, I have seen scum place a vote on another scum after they're lynched to try and make themselves look better. I've seen scum say "I think we just lynched a townie" after just that has happened because they want to look like they're dismayed.
That's
why I think this is a scumtell. Even if you disagree, you have to agree that it would be completely WIFOM to say it was a town tell.
No, I disagree. It is analogous to the original situation because it was Lylo, therefore any mislynch would mean the game is over and the remaining players would have no stake in the game.

Also, your two last situations are not comparable. The second one is a scumtell because it indicates the scum has more information than the town, not because he is trying to look dismayed. The first one is a scumtell because is bussing a scumbuddy late (in this case, very late), indicating an unwillingness to lynch scum until the deed is done, which makes it different to the Erotomachia post.

Erotomachia's post could have been written by scum, yes. But it screams to me a town mindset. Scum in that situation would already be planning the next day, and I would take a "ok, let's lynch so-and-so tomorrow" post in that situation to be a scumtell. That type of remark wouldn't even occur to most scum, as it's completely outside of their mindset. Some people might pull it off, but it indicates town pretty heavily to me.
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Post Post #656 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2007 10:46 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Those two examples aren't meant to be comparable to each other, they're meant to be comparable to this game. My point is that scum will often do or say things after the lynch to try and appear pro-town, and that these things can take many forms. If every scum did the same thing after a lynch then it would be pretty easy to spot.

And you're missing (or ignoring) the other point of difference that I mentioned between your example and what happened here - the lynched townie in your example knows for a fact that a townie has just been lynched, and that the game is over for them. Eroto did not know this (unless he's scum), so there was no basis for a "bah" post. Any speculation on his state of mind is just that - speculation. I could equally say that it reads to me like scum who is trying to come off as a dismayed townie, and you can't prove me wrong. Hence, null tell (though I still find posts like that scummy based on experience).
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Post Post #657 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2007 11:53 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Jimmy R wrote:
Erg0
I see what Soupfly is saying and it makes some sense. I'm still not convinced about his reasons for voting for Haut Boy/Shanba..he said he found him more scummy than Streeflo and Ero, which isn't a great reason as I don't think any of those 3 have been that scummy.
Ok, let me put it like this: I know almost certainly that at least one of those three is scum. The only other options are you and soupfly, and I've dismissed both of you as suspects for now based on reasons I've outlined above. I'm not saying that Haut Boy, Streeflo and Eroto are scummy, I'm just saying that they're the three possibilities that I'm left with. From there it's just a matter of deciding which of them is
most
scummy.

In other words, whether you or I find them scummy in and of themselves is irrelevant. By process of elimination I know that one of them is scum. I don't see what better reason I could come up with.

Continuing on from that, I'm noticing that very little attention is currently being paid to any posts prior to today. The first two days are full of valuable material, and focusing on today only will lead you astray. In my experience, the best scumtells are always found before the first scum is lynched.
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Post Post #658 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:17 am

Post by Jimmy R »

Ok I had another little re-read and I think I'm marking Streeflo down as town now.

TBS ony ever voted for 4 people:

Jenter: Town
Oman: Town
Gator: Town
Streeflo: ???

Seems like he was playing a pretty simple game and just trying to lynch townies. Add this to Streeflo's general play and I'm marking him down as town for now along with myself.

This reduces my suspect list to:

Ergo
Ero
Soupfly
Shanba

In no particular order...I'm going to have a think and do a little more reading over the weekend and hopefully come back with a vote that I'm confident with on Monday.
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Post Post #659 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 9:30 am

Post by Erotomachia »

I'm traveling and will be gone till Sunday.

Haven't finished reading the last few posts yet, but I would like to ask soupfly something. You think that Erg0 and Streeflo are scum. Do you think it likely that both scum voted for Haut Boy, one right after the other?
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Post Post #660 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 1:45 pm

Post by Streeflo »

Can we stop arguing over Erotomachia's twilight comment and get on with the game?
It's generating a lot of white noise, and that itself is enough to convince me that it is
still
a null tell.
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Post Post #661 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:47 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Feel free to ignore that discussion, then. I'm not going to let craplogic stand, especially when it's the main pillar of Shanba's belief in Eroto's innocence.
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Post Post #662 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 7:00 pm

Post by Shanba »

Erg0 wrote:Those two examples aren't meant to be comparable to each other, they're meant to be comparable to this game. My point is that scum will often do or say things after the lynch to try and appear pro-town, and that these things can take many forms. If every scum did the same thing after a lynch then it would be pretty easy to spot.
I was comparing them to the game, i.e the erotomachia thing. I am aware that scum will often do the sort of things you mentioned, but they are not the same as what Eroto did and not really comparable.
And you're missing (or ignoring) the other point of difference that I mentioned between your example and what happened here - the lynched townie in your example knows for a fact that a townie has just been lynched, and that the game is over for them. Eroto did not know this (unless he's scum), so there was no basis for a "bah" post. Any speculation on his state of mind is just that - speculation. I could equally say that it reads to me like scum who is trying to come off as a dismayed townie, and you can't prove me wrong. Hence, null tell (though I still find posts like that scummy based on experience).
OK, well I did address it, but wrongly, because I didn't quite understand what you are getting at.
A townie would have had no incentive to lie about that anyway. Whether a townie made a post like Erotomachia made or like whether a townie made a "bah" post when he wasn't lynched, he's not lying about it. It is, therefore, irrelevant whether or not the townie
knows
the game is over for him, because his motives are the same either way. Which means your argument boil down to "well a scum could do it too". Yes, I accept that. But I find it unlikely, because it is completely unintuitive to a scum mindset.

You find such posts scummy based on experience. OK. Show me. I'm working mostly on theory here, so if you've seen something that counteracts my theory, I would like to know.
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Post Post #663 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 7:01 pm

Post by Shanba »

Streeflo wrote:Can we stop arguing over Erotomachia's twilight comment and get on with the game?
It's generating a lot of white noise, and that itself is enough to convince me that it is
still
a null tell.
Erg0, if you want craplogic, here is a fine example. Why would whether or not it generates white noise make it a null tell?
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Post Post #664 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 7:14 pm

Post by Erg0 »

I don't really know what Streeflo meant there, so he'll need to explain it further before I could comment. I'll admit that I can't really follow what he's saying right now. He did comment earlier that he thought it was a null tell, so I doubt this is the basis of his belief.

I won't argue for Eroto's post as a scum tell, since that's really down to where you've seen it used in the past and a judgement call on the person's mindset. It is certainly a null tell though, because it could just as easily be done by a genuine townie or deceptive scum. You say you think it fits a townie's mindset, but what if Eroto (as scum) expected you to think that, and deliberately made a statement that he thought would look pro-town? Hence, we descend into WIFOM and that argument becomes invalid.

Ultimately, it was a post that had no direct impact on the game (i.e. no votes or FoSes), and did not give an opinion on anything specific that might have had an impact on the future direction of the game. This is the perfect kind of pro-town post for scum to fake, because it can't come back to bite them in any way.
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Post Post #665 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:23 pm

Post by Streeflo »

Of course that's not the reason I think it's a null tell. As I've said before, it gets too WIFOM and I don't want to get into that guessing game. Note that I said this even before the discussion came about full-blown.

I'm just saying I'm getting tired of the arguing over a single point like that. Even if it was a scum or town tell, I doubt that one small post would make much of a difference in anyone's mindset.
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Post Post #666 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:15 am

Post by soupfly »

Erotomachia wrote:I'm traveling and will be gone till Sunday.

Haven't finished reading the last few posts yet, but I would like to ask soupfly something. You think that Erg0 and Streeflo are scum. Do you think it likely that both scum voted for Haut Boy, one right after the other?
I don't think I can answer that yet and I'm hoping that we don't have to deal with it till end game. It does seem unlikely but then again we can WIFOM it to death either way.

Rereading it I noticed that Streetflo actually placed the second vote which is far more scummy than Erg0's first vote. However, I find Erg0's insistence on shanba's guilt very scummy. In my experience, when somebody insists on the guilt of a player and I don't see it, there's usually something wrong there. Out of curiosity, is anybody else as sure of Shanba's scuminess as Erg0 is? I've read it a couple of times and personally, I don't really buy the argument.

So returning to your question, eroto, I think they could both be scum but I'm not sure. If we get through today (and no lynch tomorrow) N4 will tell us alot.

@Jimmy: I wouldn't be so quick to agree with your assessment of streetflo. I now realize that he is the one who placed the second vote on shanba. There is no reason for a townie to risk a second vote at that stage of the game because if Erg0 was also a townie then there would have been an easy lynch.
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Post Post #667 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:16 am

Post by soupfly »

EBWOP: regarding streetflo's second vote, that refers to the vote on shanba.
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Post Post #668 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:39 am

Post by Erg0 »

A number of people have said they don't buy my case, but I'm definitely not seeing anything more convincing. I've also yet to find a better scumfinding method than looking at dead scum's relationship with the remaining players.

Having said that, the developments after my initial vote have given me some food for thought on the other two players in my list. I'm starting to wonder whether Streeflo was actually trying to get Shanba lynched based on the expectation that one of the town would jump on the wagon once there were a couple of votes, then jumped off quickly when he realised it wasn't going to happen. I don't see any other reason to unvote at the point he did - if a quicklynch was going to occur then it would have already happened. I also found his attempt to stifle discussion of Shanba's main town tell on Eroto in 660 a bit out of place.
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Post Post #669 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2007 10:27 am

Post by Streeflo »

I never voted shanba, you guys must be talking about HautBoy right?
As for jumping off quickly, I find it reasonable to unvote if someone got replaced.

As for stifling discussion, I don't know where you're getting at. It contributes little in my point of view, and if that is shanba's main town tell on Eroto, then he has no case at all.
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Post Post #670 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2007 11:27 am

Post by Erg0 »

Shanba/Haut Boy are interchangeable for the purposes of this discussion. Stop arguing semantics.
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Post Post #671 (ISO) » Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:54 pm

Post by Streeflo »

Hautboy was lurky and contributed little. shanba is not.
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Post Post #672 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:36 am

Post by Erg0 »

Whenever I say Shanba, you can substitute HautBoy if I'm talking about a period of the game pre-replacement. I just got tired of typing Haur Boy/Shanba every time. You're focusing on the wording and avoiding addressing the crux of the argument, which is that your second vote potentially put Haut Boy in a position to be quicklynched in absentia.
Streeflo wrote:As for stifling discussion, I don't know where you're getting at. It contributes little in my point of view, and
if that is shanba's main town tell on Eroto, then he has no case at all.
(Bolding mine)

That's exactly why I stayed on the case.
If I disagree with a tell that someone is using to define a player's alignment then I will keep on it until I feel that the disagreement has been resolved. I wouldn't be much of a scumhunter if I wasn't persistent in my pursuit - I know you already agreed it was a null tell, but yours is not the only opinion that matters here.
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Post Post #673 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:58 am

Post by Erotomachia »

I've been looking over the thread and I noticed that Erg0 was the first to vote for TBS, which I guess is a point in his favour. What's also interesting is that Streeflo was the second. This is exactly the same thing that happened with Haut Boy.

Streeflo, who do you think is scum? I'm just trying to clarify where everyone's suspicions lie.
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Post Post #674 (ISO) » Sun Sep 02, 2007 9:03 am

Post by Streeflo »

you and shanba (as a scumpair), followed by soupfly. Erg0 as played a solid game, and I see no reason to suspect him at the moment.

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