Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[Xdaamno]

(Oh, it ended right here, I think XD)

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Simenon: 4 (BrianMcQueso, Erg0, Mr. Flay, distad)
Erg0: 3 (Glork, Simenon, Nocmen)
BrianMcQueso: 2 (CES, VitaminR)
VitaminR: 1 (Xdaammo)

Not voting: --

Six

votes to lynch -

three

votes to lynch at deadline!

26 minutes until deadline!

[Mr Stoofer]

While I wait 7 minutes for the deadline to hit, I'll respond to several questions about the alignment of the dead players, simply by repeating what I said in the font post:

Dead players are pro-town unless otherwise indicated

This means, therefore, that LoudmouthLee and Seol were both pro-town at the time of their deaths.

[Mr Stoofer]

Day 1 - Sunset

:

The last few hours of daylight instigate a most unmethodical flurry of votes and unvotes from the inhabitants of Metodico, as they desperately decide whom to lynch. As night falls, the vote leader is Simenon, and so he is the one strung up at last.

With that done, the residents leave the Town Square methodically, in the following order:

Cogito Ergo Sum
Xdaamno
distad
Mr. Flay
Glork
VitaminR
Erg0
Brian McQueso
Nocmen

***

Simenon - Townie - lynched day 1

Night 2: lists being processed.

[Mr Stoofer]

Day 2 - Sunrise

:

As morning comes to Metodico, the residents methodically arrive in the Town Square in the following order:

Nocmen
Cogito Ergo Sum
Erg0
distad
VitaminR
Mr. Flay
BrianMcQueso

A quick, but methodical search of the strip club where Xdaamno hangs out, and of Glork's consulting rooms, reveals that they have both been killed!

***

Glork - Doc - Methodically murdered night 2
Xdaamno -

Mafia

- Randomly slain night 2

It is Day 2: 7 alive means 4 votes to lynch!

[Nocmen]

Whoa whoa whoa WTF... I go to bed after Erg0 and wake up to find Simenon lynched? I have to reread this last page or two when I get back from school. And also, our doctor was the one who was making the randoml list...hmm. The best part of this though is that during the amazingly quick night (11 minutes), we got one of the scum. Now to look towards the Simenon wagon, as I'm pretty sure one of the scum had to be on there.

[Erg0]

Well that was... eventful. I really hate it when my first suspicion is right and my last suspicion is wrong. It's a damn good thing that the "random" killer hit scum last night, or we'd quite possibly be in LyLo today. I think Xdaamno's "oh noes, I missed the deadline" bit would have got him in some hot water anyway, though.

Speaking of the random killer, either he got his kill choice in really fast or there's more to the random tag than I'd originally thought. I suppose he could be sending them in prior to the night phase or something like that. Either way, I think there may be more to the random kill than meets the eye.

Of the remaining people, pretty much everyone I suspected is now dead, which isn't much help. I still don't like Nocmen's throw-in vote on me yesterday - it strikes me as either very opportunistic or very unimaginative, and could well have led to me being lynched if not for the later switches. CES was absent at the deadline, and I'd like some input from him. Everyone else is roughly level in my eyes at this moment except distad, whose claim I'll trust for today unless I have reason to change my mind.

I'm not sure that there's much to learn from the wagons from my perspective. I really wish that Glork hadn't chosen the last moment to divert attention away from the people that had been under fire all day, because it really devalues the information gained from the final two wagons (for me, at least).

I'm going to take at least a 24 hour break from this game to catch my breath and catch up elsewhere.

[Xdaamno]

Go scum

[Mr. Flay]

Interesting night result; Xdammno's assertions about random killers and Mafia Watchers are put in a slightly different light, now. Unfortunately I don't see any clear pairings for him and the other (two?) Mafioso - VitR would be suspect, except that he started the attempted bandwagon on VitR yesterday during the march to deadline. On the other hand, that bandwagon went precisely nowhere, but I'm revising down my estimate of his scumminess today, especially since I was wrong about Simenon.

Argh, Simenon. Really irritating to have that come up as a Townie lynch, since the flurry of posting/voting meant that we probably dropped a scum lynch somewhere in there. I thought Simenon's sudden change of heart would tell us something once he "caught Glork's breadcrumb", but I still don't see it. The only case that springs to mind there is Erg0, who was ahead briefly and then dropped. BMQ still seems unlikely to be scum, especially in light of Xdaamno's general attitude toward that lynch possibility.

[Mr. Flay]

I very much want to hear from CES, BMQ, and distad (not necessarily in that order). I have a new theory but I need more information first.

[distad]

In middle of lenthy reread to examine Xdaamno...

Vote: BrianMcQueso

Glrok, this is not a particularly strong scum tell. Get off Xdaamno and onto BMQ, please.

Post 174 probably isn't going to included in CES's self-defense.

[VitaminR]

I'm not really surprised by Xdaamno turning up scum. I know CES has been really busy lately, but that should ease up in the next couple of days.

I reluctantly agree with Flay that BMQ probably is the player to look at right now.

[distad]

What do you want to hear from me, Flay? I already stated that Glork was my next investigation. He was methodically killed (so luckily stating that didn't impact the non-methodical kill).

Glork came back "not mafia or cult", little consequence or surprise to me at that point.

[BrianMcQueso]

Now to look towards the Simenon wagon, as I'm pretty sure one of the scum had to be on there.

The people on that wagon make up more than half of the remaining people in the game. Probability's on your side to say there was scum on that wagon.

I reluctantly agree with Flay that BMQ probably is the player to look at right now.

Where in Flay's post did you read something like that?

It is my opinion that the "reaction to nightkills" scum tell has become so widely known as a scum tell that it has lost its potency. I don't think that scum are stupid enough to make that blunder any more. You're welcome to disagree with how I see it, but it explains why I personally do not feel Xdammno was scum in that particular situation.

That's an "oops" on my part. I guess these scum tells are worth something after all.

---

Re-reading Xdaamno's posts, he's not too clear on his list of suspicions. Early on he's suspicious of Distad, but he later mentions VitaminR as his top suspect, which is peculiar as he had not mentioned suspecting Vitamin up until that point, which later turned into a vote. It looks like X was trying to slime VitaminR without good reason, and so I'm inclined to put Vitamin on the goodly side based on that. Usually when scum attack their partners, they're... well, pro-town about doing it.

What kind of information are you looking for, Flay? I've already shared my opinions on every player in the game in the post I made right before I expected to be lynched.

On a completely unrelated note, does anyone think there is a special significance to the order in which we leave the town square and arrive again (in the flavor text of ModStoofer's posts)? They're not alphabetical, and I can't seem to spot a pattern right now, but it seems like there should be something important there.

[VitaminR]

BMQ still seems unlikely to be scum, especially in light of Xdaamno's general attitude toward that lynch possibility.

This one.

Doing some re-reading tomorrow.

[distad]

On a completely unrelated note, does anyone think there is a special significance to the order in which we leave the town square and arrive again (in the flavor text of ModStoofer's posts)? They're not alphabetical, and I can't seem to spot a pattern right now, but it seems like there should be something important there.

I've been trying to figure something from them as well, most specifically the differences between leaving and returning each night. I'll keep on it.

[off-topic]Are you actually in the city or the general bay area? (I'm in Marin.)[/off-topic]

I will come up with a "brief" analysis of the remaining players sometime tomorrow when I'm at work.

Making off-topic comments will result in your replacement. Just ask VampanezeHunter - Stoofer

[BrianMcQueso]

Vitamin: Maybe you can help clear up some of my confusion. What do you mean by "the player to look at right now"?

[Mr. Flay]

Huh? I said BMQ was

unlikely

to be scum in post 483, based on Xdaamno's behavior. Where are you coming from, VitR?

distad: my apologies, I forget you'd already announced your N2 investigation target. I'm actually a little surprised Glork wasn't the random target, so that's weird (and possibly useful). Why kill Xdaamno at that point?? He wasn't particularly going after anyone useful...

I'm not getting anything useful out of the entrance/exit scenes. I suspect they're either flavor, or we'll not get it until much later in the game. Then again, with seven left alive, we COULD be at lynch-or-lose today (two scum kills + lynch = 4 alive tomorrow). That's disconcerting...

[VitaminR]

Huh? I said BMQ was

unlikely

to be scum in post 483, based on Xdaamno's behavior. Where are you coming from, VitR?

I meant to say "isn't the player to look at right now." D'oh.

[VitaminR]

I think CES has a strong chance of being scum. His Glork vote yesterday wasn't particularly well-motivated and his BMQ vote wasn't particularly well-motivated.

Also, I want to hear Flay's new theory.

[Erg0]

Ok, time to start the analysis. I introduced this same post in Calvin & Hobbes with "let's get methodical" so I suppose it fits here.

My favourite thing to do after the first scum dies is to go back and catalogue all of their interactions with other players over the course of the game. I've done this in 3 or 4 games previously and it's been reasonably reliable in my experience. This is what I found for Xdaamno:

BrianMcQueso
37: Minor criticism
149: Vague semi-criticism for being "rather unhinged"
151: Agrees with Seol's case on BMQ
299: Disagrees with BMQ wagon (after being prompted for comment)
309: Prefers BMQ lynch to Flay lynch, but says both are shaky/iffy

Cogito Ergo Sum
erm... nope.

distad
89: Criticises for mafia watcher suggestion
149: Calls vig speculation "flat-out wrong". "Not sure what scum would benifet from pointing this out in the first place, however, so IGMEOY."
248: Agrees with VitR's FoS on distad, but says he's more interested in Glork
299: Says distad is "going up on my scumdar a little". Quotes my case on him (distad).
333: "As much as distad is hovering near the top of my scum list, I'm inclined to believe his claim; based on the fact he said 'He'd probably be nightkilled' (Any scum would probably be much more careful when they say things like that, due to the implications of non-methodical scum)."

Mr. Flay
92: Minor criticism
201: Kinda random mention of Flay wagon in a post where he's responding to me (not sure what to make of this)

Nocmen
354: Asks for results of re-read and when he started to look at VitR

VitaminR (replaced ojpower)
86: Rules correction (to ojpower)
149: responds to VitR calling him over-cautious (mea culpa defence)
349: Vote: VitR just before deadline (1st and only vote for Day 1)
354: Doesn't feel need to respond to VitR's defence

There are a couple of trends I see here. Xdaamno never so much as mentions CES in the whole game, and only talks to Nocmen once, which makes it difficult to get any read on them. distad probably looks worst out of this because Xdaamno repeatedly talks about being suspicious of him, he ends up coming off as an apologist. His VitR vote was also kind of odd because he never really mentions him previously, and there was little chance in it resulting in a lynch (in my opinion) - this may have been an attempt to distract people from another wagon, though.

Not ready to draw conclusions yet, the second instalment will be other people's posts on Xdaamno.

[Nocmen]

From what I see, I stay with my list of most suspicious from before deadline yesterday. CES has moved up a bit from his dissappearance, as if he is trying to avoid something. Behind him would be Erg0, for what was pointed out right before deadline. I could suspect more if you want me to, but why suspect 4-5 of the 6 people I am playing this game with?

[Mr. Flay]

Mod

, could we get a prod on CES please? I'd really like to hear from him before I say more...

[Mr Stoofer]

CES has been prodded.

[distad]

I've spent some time looking at the lists of coming vs going and I really can't see any significance there. (Of course, I think it helps that when the list of our leaving on D0 first was posted, I wasn't there, and then was thrown into the middle when it was caught.)

I find it hard to believe that Stoofer would allow a game to be broken like this, anyway. That said, XD (scum) re-entered the town last on D1, and BMQ (suspect) re-entered last on D2.

That's all I've got from the lists. There really doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason.