Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Not voting: Nocmen, Cogito Ergo Sum, Erg0, distad, VitaminR, Mr. Flay, BrianMcQueso

Four

votes to lynch!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Oh snap! I needed that prod.

[distad]

Well, yes... but that's it?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

distad, no, of course not, but there's a lot to read.

Ok, I really believe distad's claim, especially the bit where he says "cult or mafia". That looks genuine. I certainly don't trust his results though. Once you know there are multiple cops in a game, it just doesn't mean that much.

I'm unsure as to who to vote for. I'm not completely well, so I'm going to take my time to order my thoughts and re-read. I should get myself a vote tomorrow.

[distad]

Here's an interesting thought. I doubt that it will stand up, either...

What if we have two mafias? Two cops... perhaps each only able to detect a particular family?

It wouldn't be TOO unreasonable with 12 people to have two sets of two. One of the groups could be methodical, the other could be chosen nightly.

I have nothing to back this up. I'm just brainstorming (read: brainfarting).

[Nocmen]

While its possible...I really don't think the point of this game was to have a normal killing group mafia.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think I know Flay's theory. Sweet.

Also, *agrees with Nocmen*. Random SK + Methodical Mafia is the option that makes most sense.

[Erg0]

Just wanted to pop in and say that I'm still doing my re-read on Xdaamno - just haven't had enough spare time over the last few days to finish it. I'll have a second post, and probably a vote, tomorrow.

[distad]

Yeah, CES... I'm just trying to brainstorm during our brief "lull". I already said that I didn't expect it to stand up... I'm still trying, though!

Erg0 - I don't see how I look the 'worst' regarding XD's posts when there is a lot of questionable stuff out there, but I'll wait for the second installment to respond in full.

[Erg0]

distad: "worst" is a relative term - Xdaamno talked about you specifically as being scummy a lot (relative to others), and then made a sudden backdown, based on what I see as an iffy reason, when you claimed. I'm only looking at a subset of the evidence here, and I'm not sure if it's really that useful in the end (see below).

Here's a catalogue of mentions of Xdaamno by others in their posts.

BrianMcQueso
222: Doesn't see Xdaamno's day-starting comment as a scumtell, bit of a summary (some of which misses the point, IMO). Points out that distad was also surprised.
412: Puts Xdaamno as "basic townie" in roundup post.

Cogito Ergo Sum
175: Asks Glork to get off Xdaamno and onto BMQ (early day 1 wagons)
177: In response to Glork's comment that he'd lynch CES "a dozen times over" before BMQ: "Now why do you want to lynch me all of a sudden? Or do you mean Xdaamno?" (I don't really see how he could think that Glork was talking to Xdaamno here).
203: Says again he thought Glork was referring to Xdaamno. Says Xdaamno's "burden of proof" comment re: CES not jumping on the Flay wagon is wrong (I never quite got what Xdaamno meant by this).

distad
192: Votes Glork for voting Xdaamno, thinks Xdaamno's surprise was genuine.
233: Raises a D0 post by Xdaamno re: Mafia watchers as a possible reason for Flay's "stop claiming" post.

Mr. Flay
240: More or less confirms distad's theory in 233 that he was responding to Xdaamno D0.

Nocmen
Nothing I can see.

VitaminR (replaced ojpower)
113: Calls Xdaamno's cautious suspicion of LML scummy.
195: Passing mention of Xdaamno in relation to Flay's D0 comment on claims.
248: Lists Xdaamno as "mildly scummy" (with distad & BMQ) in a roundup post.
351: Doesn't like Xdaamno vote on him without reasoning.
357: Accepts Xdaamno's reasoning based on ojpower's posting.

Unfortunately a majority of the talk about Xdaamno on Day 1 was from Glork, Sim and me, and there's nothing particularly dynamite here as far as I can see. I don't really like BMQ's 222, which offers a slightly off-point defence of Xdaamno's early "surprised" post and drags distad into the picture for doing the same thing. VitR kind of vaguely mentions him as scummy without follow-up, but it's pretty circumstantial. distad defends the "surprise" scumtell, but that seems too obvious a link to be significant. All in all it's a bit of a muddle. I'm starting to think that this form of analysis works better when the scum dies Night 2 instead of Night 1 (or at least when the people with the most interactions aren't dead or me). Nocmen and CES barely had any crossover with Xdaamno at all, probably due to the fact that both were missing for sizeable chunks of Day 1.

If I were to vote as I usually would, based solely on these criteria, I'd probably vote for distad right now. I don't think that's a good idea at this point based on his claim, though I'm definitely more sceptical of that than I originally was.

One thing that's sticking in my head is Xdaamno's vote on VitR at the end of the day. I don't like the way he made his only vote at deadline without immediate justification, but then when Nocmen followed Xdaamno asked when he started suspecting VitR. I suspect that he was either trying to discourage others from jumping on the wagon, or cautioning his buddy against an obviously wagony vote. I believe that either Nocmen or VitR is likely to be scum, and I generally like Nocmen less than VitR so far.

Vote: Nocmen

[Nocmen]

So you think it could be either me or VitR, and I guess the vote is just because I voted for you right near the end yesterday? And thats after you said you would want to vote for distad based on the info from your reread.

Vote: Erg0

, half of this being an OMGUS, half of this being for what problems were pointed out against you near the end of yesterday, and half being for voting me for what I feel is you just trying to get a vote on me in any way possible.

[Nocmen]

EBWOP: Another thing I noticed just now is what Flay said last week...we really could be in a ly-lo right now, if there is an SK and Scum. If we mislynch today, going into night we have 2 Scum (I'm assuming there is 3 scum total, if theres 4 then we are probably really screwed), 1 SK, and 3 town. If SK kills town and scum kills SK, then its 2-2 in morning, and the scum win. We need to be really careful about this all. I am still very confident towards an Erg0 lynch, and i'm still not sure about CES - he hasn't given much content since he came back.

Also, regarding distad's possible suggestion of 2 scum groups of 2...I would think that if there were two groups, Xdammno would come back as _____ Mafia when he was killed, not just Mafia.

[distad]

My thought on it was that XD came up in "red". Maybe other scum would come up as "blue". The whole thing is pretty unlikely, though.

[Erg0]

So you think it could be either me or VitR, and I guess the vote is just because I voted for you right near the end yesterday? And thats after you said you would want to vote for distad based on the info from your reread.

Vote: Erg0

, half of this being an OMGUS, half of this being for what problems were pointed out against you near the end of yesterday, and half being for voting me for what I feel is you just trying to get a vote on me in any way possible.

Well, I had it down to two people and I liked your play yesterday less than VitR's overall. I did say that the evidence pointed towards distad as the likeliest suspect in my eyes, but I've well and truly explained my reasons for not voting him today. I doubt that you're disagreeing with me on that point, you just seem to want something to argue about.

As for my "problems" at the end of yesterday, it seems to me that the wagon on me came about in no small part due to Glork's "breadcrumb" on BMQ, which proved to be utter BS as I suspected. I didn't even get a second vote placed on me until after that exchange, at which point I believe a number of people thought that Glork was dropping hints towards some sort of special knowledge. As has now been proven, he did not possess any such knowledge. The fact that you're persisting with this case today, despite the main pillar having crumbled, just gives me more cause to doubt your motives.

[Nocmen]

My thought on it was that XD came up in "red". Maybe other scum would come up as "blue". The whole thing is pretty unlikely, though.

You know its quite normal for dead scum to come up as red...right?

[distad]

Absolutely... Again, I'm just brainstorming.

[BrianMcQueso]

Four anti-town players in a game this small seems a bit too much, especially since it could result in a two-day game. As I've said before, the town is already at a disadvantage because of the hampered nightchoices, I don't think we need even more to worry about. I'm still a supporter of the "random" SK that isn't really random theory.

I'm not sure what good speculating about whether or not we're Lynch or Lose would help anyway. I'd think we should try to lynch scum; if we end up lynching town, it's not like we have any control over if we have another day or not.

I'm more in favor of an Erg0 lynch today. I'm not absolutely convinced he's scum, but he did have two players convinced he was scum yesterday, and both have been confirmed pro-town, which has to count for something.

[Nocmen]

Four anti-town players in a game this small seems a bit too much, especially since it could result in a two-day game. As I've said before, the town is already at a disadvantage because of the hampered nightchoices, I don't think we need even more to worry about. I'm still a supporter of the "random" SK that isn't really random theory.

I'm not sure what good speculating about whether or not we're Lynch or Lose would help anyway. I'd think we should try to lynch scum; if we end up lynching town, it's not like we have any control over if we have another day or not.

I'm more in favor of an Erg0 lynch today. I'm not absolutely convinced he's scum, but he did have two players convinced he was scum yesterday, and both have been confirmed pro-town, which has to count for something.

Is that referring to me? I was against Erg0 yesterday, but I don't recall being confirmed as Pro-Town. I think you are scum that just slipped and said that I'm town due to the fact I am not your scum partner. And pushing Erg0, why would you push your scum buddy that far, especially because his chances of getting lunced today are pretty high...

Unvote, Vote: BMQ

[BrianMcQueso]

Glork and Simenon suspected Ergo. They are both dead, and therefore confirmed as pro-town.

Settle down there.

[Nocmen]

Glork and Simenon suspected Ergo. They are both dead, and therefore confirmed as pro-town.

Settle down there.

Unvote, Vote Erg0

Thats what I get for being hasty and not looking back before posting. I knew Glork suspected Erg0, and I knew I did, and I thought it was only referring to us two, not Simenon and Glork.

I'm such a dumbass at times

[Erg0]

Being dead doesn't make them right. As I said before, Glork effectively lied to gain the support of Simenon. If you read the sequence of posts again, it seems (to me, at least) that Glork's "breadcrumbing" was what persuaded Simenon to vote for me. Personally, I thought that was pretty weak reasoning.

BMQ, I don't like the way you're riding Sim and Glork's coattails here rather than constructing your own case. By the same logic, if I'd been lynched yesterday then you probably would have hanged Sim today and been equally wrong.

[BrianMcQueso]

Erg0, you're overreacting a bit to what I said. If I was adamant about getting you lynched, I would have done it yesterday instead of defending you. And I'm not just "riding coattails". Who would you trust more, a player who you know is pro-town, or a player who you can't be sure about? If I sure you were scum, I would have voted you. As it stands now, I'm saying that we should talk about you.

And I don't appreciate the way you're throwing the Simenon thing back in my face. I didn't lynch him by myself, and the way he was playing was extremely suspect. Just because I'm wrong about him doesn't mean I'm wrong about everything.

[Erg0]

I wasn't accusing you of anything regarding Simenon, I was voting for him yesterday too. I'm just saying that if I was lynched then the same logic would have applied to Sim today (i.e. he was suspected by a dead townie), and it would have been wrong for him as it is for me.

[BrianMcQueso]

I wasn't accusing you of anything regarding Simenon, I was voting for him yesterday too. I'm just saying that if I was lynched then the same logic would have applied to Sim today (i.e. he was suspected by a dead townie), and it would have been wrong for him as it is for me.

I see what you're saying.

[distad]

I know I still need to respond to Erg0. I will.

There are 3 others I would like to hear more from, as well. CES, Flay, and VitR, and preferably in that order.

VitR has said that he wants to hear Flay's theory before he adds more.

Flay has said that he wants to hear more from CES before he gives his theory.

CES has said that he needed time to look through the thread again before putting more out there (including a vote).

I'm not as concerned about CES's vote, yet. I want to hear something from him, for Flay, for VitR.

Oy vey!

And yes, I understand the irony of asking for their contributions while still pausing with mine, but I think my job is collapsing around me, so I'm going to get pissed. As long as there are no objections, I'll resume tomorrow morning...

No?

Good