Blitz 16: Blitz Greatest Idea Mafia(GAME OVER)

[Persivul]

it would have been very easy to name a single person and I think most of us would have been happy with the clarity and lynched them.

Actually; that would've been a slip.

We know for a fact Smither/Fireball had the gravedigger modifier on them.

She could've fell back on "that goes without saying" though.

Oh fuck I forgot about that. That helps a lot! That means it's either Blackstar is scum who killed lane, or Ranger is scum who's framing Blackstar, and as I last thought the bus driving doesn't really matter.

[Almost50]

- we lynch Blackstar today
- I track RC and davesaz cops RC tonight. He can't kill both of us.

But the possibilty of both BS & RC being scum (either 2 mafia or 1 Ma + 1 WW) is null.

[Ranger]

RC + Ranger: This would be a classic. I need someone to refute this one analytically.

The only way I can be scum if Persivul isn't is if I'm a mafia coroner, as I was confirmed by Persivul to target lane.

So there's your analysis right there.

Same goes for the dave+me one.

BTW, my tracking ability tells me that Ranger targeted lane, not that she visited lane.

Tomato, tomato. What role in THIS SETUP can target a player already dead other than Coroner?

I also believe that the correct move is to lynch BlackStar, who looks in 1652 to have basically given up.

[Persivul]

Ranger, if there's a 2-person mafia team left, who do you think it is?

[Almost50]

@Ranger? So? Both cases DO assume you're a mafia Coroner with either of them.

However, I've come to the conclusion BS cannot be a "lone" mafioso. If he was, why would he protect me? The switch of my spot & Jackal's is proven by the fact Jackal did get attacked by WWs there. Protecting me to further mess up his targets makes no sense.

Actually the same applies ti him being scum partners with dave? WHY would they want to protect the double-action bus driver when they already have their own driver? My mere existence should confuse the hell of them, and while I can see them targeting the WW vig I don't see why they didn't just leave me in my spot & hope I would be one of the WW's kills.

BS is NOT scum.

[Almost50]

This leaves us with the following 3 options:

4- RC + Ranger are Mafia
6- Dave + Ranger are Mafia
7- Almost + Ranger are Mafia

VOTE: Ranger

[Almost50]

WAIT. How DO we know BS IS a bus driver to begin with? And if he is, how do we know his stated switches to be true?

UNVOTE: Ranger

[Almost50]

I need a break. My mind is burning up. I will come back in 30 minutes or so. I just need to stop thinking and stop staring on the screen.

[Persivul]

@ Almost: take a break dude. And remember - hindsight is 20/20, and scum make plenty of tactical mistakes. Maybe you should forget about night actions for awhile and focus on people's posting and interactions - regular old scum hunting. We have plenty of time.

[Almost50]

First & foremost: The ladies at the house wish to THANK YOU very much. In order for me to switch my brain off/on again I went to help them with the dishes, which is something I do not do very often.

Second: I've done another quick ISO of both Ranger & Dave which lead me to nothing new. I we could only clear one of them beyond reasonable doubt it would help us narrow down our options. If Ranger is town BS is the obvious lynch for today. If dave is town; Ranger is on 3 of the 4 remaining scenarios, with the 4th being BS is the LONELY scum left, hence lynching Ranger would be best.

The problem appears to be the their voting patterns:

Ranger: Started by voting Almost; then switched to Starbuck and ended the day on Jackal, who was also her vote target at the start of D2. Then she switched to Persy, then flubber. Not one of them is mafia.

On the other hand: Ranger relentlessly defended Wendnesday; which is something I don't see scum doing.

dave's voting pattern is no better: He only RSV's RC, then voted lane, then Almost then put Wednesday at L-1. On D2 he voted flubber, unvoted, then voted him again.

If I still can't decide on my vote target later on I might just sheep Persivul. He's the only one I know to be town beyond any shadow of doubt.

That's all for now.

[Almost50]

The only way I can be scum if Persivul isn't is if I'm a mafia coroner, as I was confirmed by Persivul to target lane.

So there's your analysis right there.

Same goes for the dave+me one.

So, Ranger; Please tell me this: Why can't you be a WW Coroner? And why did you consider being a Mafia Coroner an unlikely possibility, thus vindicating yourself?

[BlackStar]

RC + Ranger: This would be a classic. I need someone to refute this one analytically.

The only way I can be scum if Persivul isn't is if I'm a mafia coroner, as I was confirmed by Persivul to target lane.

So there's your analysis right there.

Same goes for the dave+me one.

BTW, my tracking ability tells me that Ranger targeted lane, not that she visited lane.

Tomato, tomato. What role in THIS SETUP can target a player already dead other than Coroner?

I also believe that the correct move is to lynch BlackStar, who looks in 1652 to have basically given up.

That's not me giving up. You would know because I would literally say "whatever, I don't even care anymore".

WAIT. How DO we know BS IS a bus driver to begin with? And if he is, how do we know his stated switches to be true?

UNVOTE: Ranger

Don't you remember all the confusion when I first claimed bus driver? We got the mod to answer the question of who's actions go through first if there's a bus driver. If you look back at his posts he writes as if there definitely are 2 bus drivers not as if there might be 2 bus drivers.

[BlackStar]

it would have been very easy to name a single person and I think most of us would have been happy with the clarity and lynched them.

Actually; that would've been a slip.

We know for a fact Smither/Fireball had the gravedigger modifier on them.

She could've fell back on "that goes without saying" though.

Oh fuck I forgot about that. That helps a lot! That means it's either Blackstar is scum who killed lane, or Ranger is scum who's framing Blackstar, and as I last thought the bus driving doesn't really matter.

It's the latter of those two options, but I don't really know how to prove it. It looks like Ranger really did visit lane, but I never visited him so Ranger is just throwing me under the bus.

[Persivul]

@RC: ignoring night actions and just considering posts & votes, what's your read on Blackstar?

[Almost50]

@Everybody: What are the chances you would receive the same role in both draws? Cuz this 164looks a bit iffy. I know you did track her to lane, so she IS a coroner on this game, but do you think that was also her first draw??

Not only this, but she states she was extremely disappointed she had to settle for something weak this time around. Do you think Coroner is weak?

I don't know, but for some reason I'm not comfortable voting for BS. I could be wrong though, but this is how I feel. I had a remark from the N2 phase analysis (before the action/flips were posted) next to Ranger that reads: "Ranger is mafia = will set someone up today. Associate unknown.". I had really hoped she would try to frame you or me though, bc then I would've known 100% she was lying. Now I don't "know" that but I'm skeptical regarding her result on BS.

Feedback much appreciated.

[davesaz]

If I were scum, I could have claimed a guilty and used that mislynch to win.
What do you get if you remove me from the pool of possibles?
On top of that Mafia Cop is a useless role in a game with mafia + ww, it only makes sense for mafia+SK and 2mafia.

Mafia Coroner makes sense in a game with any other killing role. Mafia Busdriver is a thing, and so is Mafia Governor.

If Ranger is trying to set up BS, she picked the most believable suspect and/or was afraid to try to set up RC. I can believe both of those hypothesis.

[Almost50]

And finally: upon Ranger's flip we learn this:

1- She's a WW --> lynch BS. He's the remaining mafia.
2- She's mafia --> BS is clear. Possible partners are dave, RC or me (I know I"m not, but for you guys there may still be some doubt)
3- She's town --> There's still a chance BS is the lone mafia remaining, OR it's him and dave (in which case we lose).

[Almost50]

Mafia Cop is a useless role in a game with mafia + ww

Agreed, but how do we know you ARE a Cop? Mafia Seer/Tracker/Watcher are all possible roles for you to show up visiting Jackal on N1.

[BlackStar]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ranger
Let's vote for someone who's actually scummy. I voted for both the survivors on the previous days, I bus drove Persivul and Almost on the previous nights and saved them. I don't know what else I have to do to prove that I'm town.

[Almost50]

@dave: If you had only one hour left for deadline, who would you be voting?

[Almost50]

@BS: You do realize what I said about her flipping options, right? If she flips town OR WW you're the next lynch by default. ONLY if she's mafia will you be a confirmed townie.

[BlackStar]

That's fine. I'm pretty sure she is Mafia.

[Persivul]

Can we just not vote for now? There's plenty of time. I'm checking ISOs and some meta and will put up full thoughts and plans tonight or tomorrow morning. Let's just be cool for now.

[Almost50]

Can we just not vote for now?

I'm game. Let's wait for more feedback from all parties.

[RadiantCowbells]

Man, you guys are being incredibly obtuse.