Mini 472 - Cartman Mafia - Game Over

[ZeekLTK]

Vote: Estes

Tattaglia Scum!!

[ZeekLTK]

Actually it was the third vote. Gatorguy voted first, Off the Mark voted second, and then earwig voted third.

[ZeekLTK]

However that's very shady to unvote just because it was the third vote and apologize...

unvote Estes

vote earwig

[ZeekLTK]

What bandwagon? He only had 3 votes total when you unvoted him...

[ZeekLTK]

People, including you, were pretty quick to jump on the "j-man" bandwagon but I guess those people aren't suspicious since they didn't vote for one of your mafia buddies?

[ZeekLTK]

vote: ZeekLTK

It's WAAAAY too early to start acting like you've confidently figured out scumbuddies. That was a ridiculous statement.

FoS: Off the Mark

You are WAAAAY too defensive for such an early stage of the game.

It was just an offhanded comment lol.

But it is odd that you:

a) Are constantly throwing your vote around to hope it sticks on a bandwagon (you've voted 4 times total so far)

b) Have been a vote on every person so far that has had more than 1 (j-man, earwig, me)

c) Your initial vote for earwig was a "random vote" but you tried to make a comment as if to put some reasoning behind it, which mafia tend to do

d) Are so defensive so early

e) Are mafia but won't admit to it


Exhibit c:

Random vote: Earwig

because... ewww

Why did you feel the need to include a "because"? If it's random there's no need to explain, unless you've got something to hide!



I am tempted to switch my vote, but earwig is not only "very shady", he is extremely shady for his vote on j-man and then the apology right after.

The reason scummy play gets lynched is because it's not very productive to the town.

If you think about it, the only thing I've done is not vote for someone because I didn't feel the evidence was strong enough in warranting a vote yet.

Is that something mafia would do?

Yet you voted for me for no apparent reason...

[ZeekLTK]

I am kinda wondering why NO ONE has looked at this. To me this is a HUGE event from the first day (*note that I didn't see that he originally agreed with me until Chaos pointed it out in his post):

After Earwig apologized and unvoted after being confronted by Off the Mark, ZeekLTK said:

However that's very shady to unvote just because it was the third vote and apologize...

unvote Estes

vote earwig

to which Off the Mark responded with:

Agreed, he backed off way too fast. Seems paranoid.

Alright. Let's look at your very next post:

FOS: DeanWinchester and ZeekLTK for being a little too eager to jump on the bandwagon. Zeek characterized Earwig's actions as "very shady" which I think is an overstatement. (I would call it a little odd, but totally understandable for a fairly new player) And Dean said "seems like a newb scum slip" which I think is jumping to conclusions a bit.

Uh...what? Now you don't agree with him. Pretty quick change of heart.

Okay let's look at this CAREFULLY.

First, I vote for the same person Off The Mark has (because let's face it, earwig's actions were extremely shady) and Off The Mark immediately posts to "agree" with me.

Then, as soon as one more person votes, he thinks to himself, "hey this kinda looks like a bandwagon, and it'll be easier (and put more suspicion out there, away from myself) if I get people to go after these guys as well."

Well, that could have worked if you hadn't already done what you'd done: agree with the reasoning behind earwig. So you basically just changed your stance for either no reason at all or to cause more confusion and get the town more preoccupied with chasing townies. Either way those are not pro-town reasons.

Your only defense for your unexplainable 180-degree change is that "the logic was weak", but you don't say WHY it is "weak"... and you clearly didn't think it was "weak" when you AGREED WITH IT.

Clearly the whole "FoS" on me and DW is just a mafia ploy to send the town off on a wild goose chase so that instead of just one person (earwig) being suspected, now you try to throw it on two people so that one might get lynched and then the cop wastes his investigation on the other, and not yourself.

Then this gem:

1. Zeek
2. Dean
3. Earwig

So two your top three suspects are people who "bandwagoned" against your other suspect? Great logic there.


It's so obvious; this guy has to be mafia.

unvote earwig; vote Off The Mark

[ZeekLTK]

What's IGMEOY mean?

My problem with it was that he is immediately making scum buddy connections in the early game, and

he accused us

with a confident attitude.

Let's look at what happened: there was bandwagon against j-man in which you and earwig took part in, and then you called people out for doing the same thing the two of you did against j-man.

I think that the only reason you voted earwig was because you saw the bandwagon on j-man was going nowhere and earwig had made a stupid move by following your vote and trying to claim it was random when it wasn't. Then you got scared that all of a sudden people were voting for earwig, and you didn't want your mafia buddy to get lynched, so you tried to attack the people voting for him.

It's clear that you are mafia.

[ZeekLTK]

To respond for my behavior, I have just been trying to be overaggressive to put pressure on OTM and see if he cracks. Apparently no one agrees with me though so I'll back off for now.


Since we have a cop claim, if you want to test your sanity you can investigate me. I am the safest to investigate because I won't lie about my role: if you get an innocent then you are insane. And then if you aren't the real cop, the real cop won't waste an investigation AND end up revealing himself thinking he got a mafia when he didn't. If you get guilty on me then obviously Gatorguy is mafia and we should lynch him (if we don't today).

I won't vote for Gatorguy yet since you seem to think you are an insane cop, so no point in killing a townie and giving the mafia an easy bandwagon kill to finish off day 1.

[ZeekLTK]

From above:

"And then if you aren't the real cop, the real cop won't waste an investigation AND end up revealing himself thinking he got a mafia when he didn't"


What I mean is, if he investigates *me* he won't blow his cover, because I'll give a guilty result but I am NOT mafia.

[ZeekLTK]

He didn't say he was sure:

ok fine you want my case? this is my case i am a Cop i investagated Gatorguy91 N1 because i had never played with him before ive been pressing for him to talk this whole game but he hasn't given me anything

im not sure if im allowed to quote which epi i come from but i think i may have sanity issues if the role is consistant with the epi :/ but as everyone knows the only way to find our sanity or not is to lynch the person that you got a guilty result on.

the reason i decided that it was time to lynch gatorguy is because he hasn't contributed anything to the game and likely isn't going to so even if he isn't mafia he won't be missed and either way we will know whether or not to trust my investagations in the days to come.

personally i think it is a fair trade and ill pm stewie and ask if i can quote the epi if i can i'll quote for you so you can see why i question my sanity.

again

CONFIRM VOTE:Gatorguy91

incase it wasn't clear enough i did investagate Gatorguy91 N1 and the result was guilty

To be specific: i think i may have sanity issues if the role is consistant with the epi


I notice ChaosOmega has been the only person to vote for Gatorguy since the claim though...

[ZeekLTK]

So, if he really is a cop and wants to find out his sanity, I suggested to investigate me since I am a miller - so if you are a sane cop you will get guilty on me and vice versa.


However, I could totally see this being a mafia move.

-Claim cop hoping the real cop shows himself.
-Claim that you might be insane so that if we lynch a townie you can just say "oh, well I guess I'm insane" and take no responsibility for killing a townie. Then, you can get another townie lynched later by saying you got an innocent on someone. After that you'll obviously be found out as a fraud and killed, but you would have killed two townies via lynching (and 2 more during those nights) and have thrown everyone off.

So we should be careful with this.

[ZeekLTK]

Also I'm glad he did this because even if he's not the cop, I wanted to role claim as soon as possible so, like I said, the cop doesn't reveal himself if he investigates me and then we end up losing a townie (me) and the cop is revealed with no mafia found yet.

[ZeekLTK]

I don't see how you can think I am lying about being a Miller. Of all the roles to claim why would someone pick that?

You seem like you are trying to say "Don't lynch Gatorguy, investigate me instead since I, of course, am innocent, then you'll know if your investigation on Gatorguy is correct." You know what this tells me? You would only say this if you KNOW that your own investigation will return the same result as Gatorguy's! If Gatorguy comes up as scum, you just confirmed yourself as scum, bub, nice job. So let's get lynching.

What? I said if he investigates me and gets a guilty then he knows Gatorguy is mafia. The only way Gatorguy won't be mafia is if j-man gets an INNOCENT when he investigates me.

This means that my result will be the OPPOSITE of Gatorguy's if he really is mafia.

Here is the simple equation:

Me as guilty + Gatorguy as guilty = Gatorguy is mafia and j-man is the real cop
Me as innocent + Gatorguy as guilty = Gatorguy is a town and j-man is an insane cop

There's a 50% chance that Gatorguy is a town, so I don't see why you would vote for him yet. Why not wait until we are 100% sure one way or the other? All it takes to confirm this is to have j-man investigate me during the next night. And then we not only know Gatorguy's role, but we know j-man's sanity.

Then, if Gatorguy isn't mafia, we saved a townie and can look at all the people who were trying to lynch him the first day (like Off The Mark) and find our mafia there. And if he is mafia, well, we can lynch him!

However, what do you guys think about a no lynch? We have a lot of evidence and we can PROVE two people's roles tomorrow if j-man investigates me and won't end up lynching a townie today.

Even if I get killed at night, j-man will still have his investigation result from me. So all we need to do is:

-Doc protects j-man
-j-man investigates me

And then we're good to go for the next day and we have one more townie than we would have if we lynched one on day 1.


-----------

Also, I already pointed out that it's not a good idea to vote for someone who the "cop" says is guilty when the cop himself thinks he is likely to be insane.

To me people voting for him are saying: "the cop thinks he is insane, and got a guilty - which would really mean innocent, so I'm going to vote for the guy".

If you have any doubts about j-man's sanity then voting for Gatorguy right now is a major ANTI-town move because you are admitting that there is a decent chance Gatorguy might be town, but you're still voting against him anyways.

So this is just one more scummy move by Off The Mark.


-----------

I saw your next posts after I already typed that up (when I hit preview) so I'll respond here too so I don't have multiple posts in a row again.

Also, tell us more about your abilities. What can you do? I believe you should lynch all claimed millers on general principle. They're far more likely to be scum. Real millers often don't claim, or claim vanilla, because of this.

I'll go from the bottom up here. I don't see why you wouldn't claim if you were a miller. Like I've said a handful of times, only trouble can come (for the town) if a miller remains quiet. The cop investigates a miller, gets guilty, reveals himself as the cop, the town lynches the miller, and then what is the result? The town killed a townie and the cop is revealed and still no one knows who the mafia is! That doesn't seem like a good scenario so I wanted to claim as soon as possible.

This is my first game ever with a miller in it though, so I'm not aware of "other miller behavior". My immediate thought when I got the role was "shit, this is just going to screw the town over unless I let people know early".

For the first part... what can I do? I can give a guilty result to a sane cop and that screws the town over because he thinks he caught a mafia when he didn't. However, in this case, since we have a potential insane cop, I can help him determine his sanity if he investigates me.

[ZeekLTK]

err... I worded the first part wrong.

"This means that my result will be the OPPOSITE of Gatorguy's if he really is mafia."

I mean to say mine will be opposite if he is town, not mafia. And no, I do not "KNOW" whether or not we'll get the same result, which is why I think it's the best bet to investigate me and see. If it is opposite he's town. If not, he's mafia!

[ZeekLTK]

Ah fuck I ended up with multiple posts in a row anyways.

EBWOP - ok, when I posted I did not see Zeek's last two posts, so I didn't know he was claiming Miller. For this to make sense, you really should have said it when you first proposed that J-man investigate you.

So what episode is your "Miller" role from? Give us the Cartman flavor. You are lieing scum, d

I was going to wait on this to see if anyone tried to claim miller themselves to ask them what cartman they are. So... I dunno if I should reveal which one or not, because if you were pretending to be a miller, you probably wouldn't even think of this type of cartman. So I don't want to give the mafia any potential help to have them try to claim the role themselves.

However, if others besides OTM want me to state this then I will.

[ZeekLTK]

Wow, I miss one night and a lot of crap goes down.

So, to recap, J-man is cop, and Zeek is a Miller(what's a miller?).

Miller means I'm a town but if a sane cop investigates me he gets a "guilty" result.

[ZeekLTK]

I find it odd that Off The Mark seems to *know* that there are exactly 3 mafia...

[ZeekLTK]

How is that stupid? There is an unknown number of mafia, but Off The Mark made a whole post where his entire theory of how many "lynches we had left" was based on there being exactly 3 mafia.

No one knows how many mafia there are except the mod and the actual mafia...

[ZeekLTK]

Kill vs. Lynch - I still don't see how this can possibly seem suspicious. I've seen many many games where people say "kill" while referring to a lynch - that's what a lynch is, isn't it? This is grasping at straws to cast suspicion on a claimed cop.

That scares me, as it could be incredibly effective if that is J-man's plan.

Again, trying to make the town doubt the claimed cop. Appeal to emotion (fear) too.

Why are you defending the "claimed cop". It's pretty obvious he's not the real cop, so he is either insane or pretending to be a cop. Pretending to be a cop can be an effective mafia move, so it's not unreasonable to at least give a little consideration to that possibility and how dangerous to the town it is.

You yourself even said:

Yup, watched the whole episode, Cartman only fingers innocent people, so J-man is definitely either insane or paranoid.

So why are you trying to act like j-man might be the real cop now? Oh, because it's convenient and allows you to attack Sorin...

My vote remains.

[ZeekLTK]

Yeah, I'd be pretty suspicious of people wanting to lynch people who turned up guilty in an investigation too.

Just clarifying here -- this is sarcasm, right? You're really saying you think it was strange that Zeek was suspicious of people voting for Gatorguy?

Glad everyone in this game is not crazy.

Okay, normally if someone posts "I'm a cop and I got a guilty" then there isn't much to question (other than if they are lying). But as soon as he said he got a guilty, the next sentence he said "but I think I have sanity issues". So isn't it strange that people are voting to lynch a guy who a cop that thinks he is likely to be insane got a guilty result on?

Yeah it is, and who tried to do that? Off The Mark and ChaosOmega.



Do I need to quote j-man's role claim again??

ok fine you want my case? this is my case i am a Cop i investagated Gatorguy91 N1 because i had never played with him before ive been pressing for him to talk this whole game but he hasn't given me anything

im not sure if im allowed to quote which epi i come from but i think i may have sanity issues if the role is consistant with the epi :/ but as everyone knows the only way to find our sanity or not is to lynch the person that you got a guilty result on.

the reason i decided that it was time to lynch gatorguy is because he hasn't contributed anything to the game and likely isn't going to so even if he isn't mafia he won't be missed and either way we will know whether or not to trust my investagations in the days to come.

personally i think it is a fair trade and ill pm stewie and ask if i can quote the epi if i can i'll quote for you so you can see why i question my sanity.

again

CONFIRM VOTE:Gatorguy91

incase it wasn't clear enough i did investagate Gatorguy91 N1 and the result was guilty

He clearly says he is likely to have sanity issues, so there is no reason to vote for Gatorguy based on this post. In fact, it means Gatorguy is likely to be a town member since j-man is likely to be an insane cop.

So only the mafia would want to lynch a player who is likely to be town, and both ChaosOmega and Off The Mark still tried to jump on this.

The biggest tell to me is ChaosOmega's response to j-man's claim:

Well that's interesting. I think it's a little early to start claiming roles, though.

So J-man's a cop, and he investigated Gatorguy91 and got a guilty.

Well, Gatorguy91 never really pinged my scumdar, but he never really pinged any radar at all. Looking back through his posts, most of them are short and asking for people to respond, not really putting forward much analysis himself.

unvote, vote Gatorguy91

I'm not entirely sold on you being a cop. But I agree that Gatorguy91 needs to post more content.

Especially the bolded part - I love how you try to summarize the post but leave out one of the biggest, most important parts: questioning his own sanity. You're just trying to ignore it and get the bandwagon started. Big mafia move IMO.

I don't like to use "FoS", you should just vote for someone if you think they are mafia, but since I've got two people here and am already voting for Off The Mark,

FoS: ChaosOmega

[ZeekLTK]

I'm waiting for a pro-town player to ask for me to reveal it, because it seems only the mafia type want me to.

[ZeekLTK]

Okay, I'm a miller because I look different from the rest of the cartmans...




Episode 9-11

[ZeekLTK]

Well to me it seems that a serial killer would have an episode that cartman kills someone, like the Scot Tederman one.

I can't quote my PM, but the jist of it is that the cop would think I'm guilty because, as Ginger Cartman, I don't look like the rest of the town, even though I am.

[ZeekLTK]

It also could be seen as a miller, with Cartman hating ginger kids, and he's a ginger, but he's also Cartman. But you could be right as well.

But we want to keep ZeekLTK alive until tomorrow to check the sanity of J-man. Unless...you want him lynched to keep J-man's sanity a mystery?

unvote, vote Gatorguy91

So this is the 2nd time that ChaosOmega has tried to throw accusations at Gatorguy after j-man's reveal.

The first time, okay, maybe it was an innocent mistake and he overlooked the sanity part (that's unlikely though, he just saw "cop" and it said someone other than him or his mafia buddies was "guilty" so he jumped on it). But come on, we're not lynching Gatorguy because we can PROVE whether he is mafia or not tomorrow. Why would you want to lynch him before we have proof? Only the mafia would want to do that.

unvote Off The Mark; vote ChaosOmega

[ZeekLTK]

Okay so right now we've had 11 pages and still don't have a consensus on who could be mafia.

I realized I've pretty much only been going after Off The Mark and now ChaosOmega and kinda ignored other things going on. So I went back and made a recap of the game. I'll post it so others can see and maybe see any trends or behavior that sticks out that I might not notice.

I just went through and tried to be unbiased and just recorded what happened. I'll re-read it later and come to my conclusions from it. Hopefully this helps us catch someone who maybe would have slipped through unnoticed otherwise.


P1:
j-man questions Off The Mark as a replacement (since he could have been replaced too but wasn’t)
Dean questions OTM’s response with “WTF? Explain” even though there was nothing more to explain
j-man calls out Gatorguy with an IGMEOY
Estes posts but doesn’t vote
OTM explains to Dean anyways
OTM puts a 2nd vote on j-man and says OMGUS
j-man thinks that OTM is a replacement because mafia couldn’t talk until their last guy was in


P2:
Mod confirms that this is not the reason that OTM was a replacement
j-man - FOS: Dean and Estes
ryan questions the FOS saying it’s too early for that
earwig agrees with ryan and votes j-man (3rd vote against j-man)
Dean makes it known that he agrees as well, but no vote
OTM says j-man is trying too hard
Sorin’s first post – is upset that 2 people are already dead, tries to determine number of masons and doesn’t vote
j-man defends his antics saying he was just trying to get the game moving
OTM calls out earwig for his vote on j-man, also FOS: Sorin for “showing emotion”
Earwig apologizes for his vote and unvotes
j-man claims earwig’s vote wasn’t the third then calls out earwig for apologizing
I point out that it was the third and say it was shady to apologize – I vote for earwig
OTM agrees that earwig “Backed off too fast”


P3:
Sorin agrees with me about earwig and votes, also defends his “emotion” from before
Estes pulls his random vote and says no one other than earwig is suspicious, but won’t put his vote on him because he doesn’t want to “accidentally start a bandwagon”
Dean says “the earwig thing does seem really odd” and votes for earwig
Chaos calls out Estes and says a bandwagon has already started – he votes for Estes and says he would vote for earwig except “it’s way too early to put anyone at L-1” (I don’t think it was that close though)
Gatorguy unvotes j-man and votes for Dean questioning why he put earwig at “L-3”, then proceeds to FOS: earwig in the same post
OTM unvotes earwig and FOS: me and Dean for being “too eager to jump on the bandwagon”
I point out that OTM was quick to do the same thing against j-man earlier
Estes laughs off Chaos’ suspicion and says his style just confuses people
Chaos says he voted for Estes because Estes was overly cautious
OTM votes for me because I sounded confident when I suggested he was a mafia buddy with earwig
Dean responds to Gatorguy and says “L-2 on page 3 is fine” and suggests we can find mafia based on who is willing to hammer, also says he doesn’t like Estes’ posts
j-man defends Estes somewhat (says some players just look scummy all the time)
Dean suggests Estes should change his style and not play scummy
Estes defends himself saying he’s accused because he hasn’t voted and said that he hasn’t seen strong enough evidence yet
I respond to OTM and begin the “inquisition” against him, also point out that Estes had voted for me before with for reason at all
Dean continues to argue with Estes saying Estes ignored his comment about “always playing scummy”
Ryan defends Estes saying “hesitating to vote isn’t scummy”
OTM responds to my long post to defend himself
Estes continues to defend himself against Dean
j-man questions Estes’ defense
Dean keeps pressing Estes


P4:
Dean and Estes keep going back and forth
Earwig responds to an OTM comment from several pages ago to reassure him that his vote on j-man was “completely random bro”
Earwig responds to my vote against him for apologizing saying he didn’t check votes before voting and that was why he apologized
Gatorguy presses Dean to respond to his vote
j-man says enough with the earwig bandwagon and wants to pressure lurkers
j-man starts to make his case against Gatorguy and also makes cases against both Chaos and Dean; Dean for his attack on Estes for basically nothing and Chaos for low activity and the fact that all he’s done is, like Dean, attack Estes
OTM agrees with j-man that Dean looks fishy (trying too hard to make others look scummy)
ChaosOmega attacks OTM for changing his stance on earwig (originally agreed with me and then voted for me for bandwagoning), says he is not sure about Dean
OTM responds to Chaos’ attack, said he looked over it again and changed his mind
j-man says he didn’t consider Dean scummy so he is curious as to why Off the Mark “agreed with him” about Dean
ryan questions OTM, Estes, and Chaos
OTM responds with his list of top 3 suspects: me, Dean, and earwig but says we don’t know much yet
Ryan disagrees with this last comment and says we have plenty of information already
j-man puts and FOS: ryan for the questions he posted to others
ryan asks why j-man is quick to not answer his questions
OTM points out that ryan didn’t ask j-man any questions
Ryan tries to spin it off and continues to pressure j-man
OTM again tries to make his point to ryan about j-man
Ryan continues his defense of his Q&A
Estes answers the question posed to him, says j-man seems “ok so far” and Gatorguy hasn’t posted enough to form an opinion, says he is also suspicious of Dean for Dean’s attack against him and then the fact that Dean has been quiet ever since


P5:
Gatorguy says he is still waiting for Dean to respond and won’t do anything til he hears his defense
j-man responds to ryan’s previous comments and says why he has a problem with ryan asking questions but not answering any himself – says it’s a “quality scum tell” on ryan
Dean says he has been quiet because he was reading Harry Potter but he finished it. Asks “what is the argument against me?” and tries to point out that no one else has commented on Estes’ words “that’s just how I play, don’t lynch me”
Gatorguy shows Dean why he voted for him (by quoting a former post)
Ryan wonders why OTM is attacking Sorin for “showing emotion”, says he didn’t like earwig’s “apology”, says Dean was quick to jump on earwig, questions why Chaos wouldn’t vote for earwig, then makes his list of sum, not sure, and town… has OTM, Dean, and earwig in scum, me and Estes in town (doesn’t say why though) – ends post with a vote for Dean
OTM responds to ryan’s comment about Sorin and says that “showing emotion” is a common scum tell but says that he thinks Sorin is just a newbie now and not mafia – begins to become suspicious of ryan and questions why both he and Dean are on the scumlist even though he voted for Dean (//my note: hmmm… kinda like how OTM’s scum list had me, Dean, and earwig??)
Ryan defends why he has OTM and Dean on the list, says Dean is the “scummiest so far” because he keeps “posting then disappearing”
j-man questions why ryan put me on his town list and has other issues
ryan addresses all of j-mans concerns
Estes says he wants to think Dean is mafia, but then says he thinks Dean was just “hoping he had a lead, [rather] than actually being mafia”. Throws some suspicion about Gatorguy saying “he usually talks more”
Dean says his scumlist is me, ryan, and Estes – mainly because ryan put me in his town list “for no real reason”
I point out Chaos’ post where he attacked OTM and make a big argument against OTM concluding with changing my vote to him
Ryan questions Dean’s scum list
OTM again defends himself against my attacks, says he is feeling a stronger reason to vote for me and is beginning to agree with Dean that ryan might be scum
OTM also questions why ryan put me in his “town” category when he could have put me in “unsure”
OTM tries to defend his scumlist that he made (me, Dean, and earwig) and again brings up “emotion” as a way to attack me back
Ryan wonders why OTM is suddenly siding with Dean when Dean made a “poor argument”
OTM says he is just keeping an open mind and that he is less suspicious of Dean now
Ryan defends why he put me on his town list


P6:
OTM says ryan used my “most ridiculous” posts as reason to believe I’m town
OTM and ryan argue for a bit about the “ridiculousness” of my post
I come in and re-explain my point about earwig and j-man bandwagons and try to connect OTM and earwig as mafia partners
OTM says my “confidence” that he is mafia is making me look scummy
Chaos says he “believes” earwig that it was a random vote on j-man, then says I am acting “pretty suspicious”, posts why, and votes for me, goes back and questions why ryan has me as town
Estes, for some reason, is trying to justify why me and him voted for each other during the random stage – my guess is because ryan has him on the town list too so he is trying to distance himself from me, although I don’t know why because we didn’t appear to be working together anyways - and says it was because we were “messing around”, also says it is hard to tell who is mafia and analyzes the situation as: “Zeek & ryan vs OTM & Chaos” and says he is stalemated with Dean… still does not vote
j-man says Estes’ post cleared up some things for him
earwig still can’t figure out why voting and then apologizing for his vote is “shady”, he is still claiming it’s a random vote and that’s all. Also questions why ryan put me in his town list and FOS: ryan because of it
ryan responds to earwig the same way he did to everyone else who questioned his list
earwig wonders why ryan has ANYONE on a “town list” and why he seemed “a little steamed” that I was on other scum lists
Estes says he considers j-man a pro-town player
Ryan and earwig debate about ryan being concerned about me on people’s list – ryan says its because he thinks I am pro-town so is wondering why others thing I am not, earwig says “fair enough” and ceases the questioning


P7:
j-man votes for Gatorguy with no explanation
OTM says he’d like to hear more from Gatorguy
Gatorguy asks j-man why the vote is on him
Ryan answers and says “we want to hear some content from you”
Earwig says he wants to hear more too
Gaotrguy deflects pressure to Dean saying he is waiting on Dean to respond
Estes agrees that Dean needs to post
Ryan points out that Dean just posted a few days ago and OTM agrees and pushes Gatorguy to talk about other people besides Dean.
j-man says he’s “ready to kill Gatorguy”
Ryan puts j-man on “FOS” for saying “kill”
j-man explains why he said “kill” – doesn’t think it’s any different from “lynch”
OTM asks j-man to make his case against Gatorguy and votes for ryan for pointing out the word, says I have been too aggressive, but thinks ryan is scummy and wants to put pressure on him
j-man claims cop, got a guilty on Gatorguy, and says because of the episode he thinks he has sanity issues
Chaos immediately votes for Gatorguy without questioning the claim
Gatorguy says that j-man is not the real cop and votes for him
Ryan defends his attack on j-man’s choice of words
Ryan sort of questions whether j-man is the cop or not
Gatorguy says j-man is either scum or the worst cop ever and claims to be vanilla town
j-man responds to ryan and also points out that he is not sure of his sanity (again)


P8:
Ryan says he is 50/50 on j-man being cop/scum
I admit I’ve been over aggressive against OTM and reveal that I am the miller so that j-man can test his sanity on me but I remind people he could also be mafia trying to get the real cop to claim
OTM says me and ryan seem really scummy due to our reactions about j-man claiming, he then votes for Gatorguy, says that his new scumlist is me, gatorguy, and ryan
Then realizes I claimed miller and asks me more about it
I respond and explain how I can help the town because of my guilty result – no townie would claim miller, especially in this case, if he was going to produce an innocent result because that would hurt the town
OTM realizes that now I am most likely to be town and now understands how this will help, so he unvotes Gatorguy
j-man says he is not sure about the miller thing but is open to try it and then unvotes Gatorguy as well. He reveals the episode he’s from here too.
Estes provides a recap that j-man is a cop and I’m a miller (still doesn’t vote)
Earwig says he doesn’t appriciate ANYONE trying to bully j-man (who was?)


P9:
OTM wonders what earwig’s comment means, tries to reason out what my claim means (I know this must have caught him off guard because he was sure I was mafia), still manages to throw blame at ryan
Ryan responds to OTM’s post and eventually votes for him
Estes finally votes… for Dean
OTM makes the post where he tries to figure out how many lynches we have to find a mafia and concludes that we have 2. FOS: Estes for voting a lurker
Ryan comments on OTM’s long post and defend’s Estes’ vote saying it’s good to pressure lurkers
OTM confirms that he was “reasoning it out” and says he watched the episode and thinks j-man is most likely to be an insane cop
Estes says OTM is “desperately searching for something to throw attention off of yourself” in response to the FOS against him
I point out that OTM seems to “*know*” that there are 3 mafia and how that is odd because no one knows for sure
j-man says my comment is stupid, Gatorguy responds to j-man with “likewise”
I ask how it’s stupid and explain my logic behind making it
Ryan asks why j-man is sticking up for OTM
Sorin makes a long post, thinks OTM is scum based on P4-6, and he agrees with one of my long posts (#115) as his reason, says I shouldn’t be jumping to conclusions though. Also says he is “scared” that j-man could really hurt the town if he’s mafia pretending to be an insane cop. Ends up voting for OTM.
OTM responds to Sorin’s post by saying that me and Sorin “are mafia”.
OTM points out that he said “assumed 3 mafia” – I missed that so I don’t push it anymore
OTM says he would “happily vote himself off…” and ryan points out that isn’t very pro-town.
OTM says he was just frustrated when he made that post but he is still “sure” about Sorin and votes for him.


P10:
Ryan still defending why he called out j-man several pages ago about using “kill” vs “lynch”
I ask why OTM is acting like j-man is the “real cop” when it’s clear he’s not
OTM points out that insane is still a “real cop” (which is true…)
Chaos unvotes for Gatorguy and says there is “too many sanity issues to be sure”. He goes on to make a long post about why he suspects me, but then says the town needs me to help determine j-man’s sanity so he seemingly randomly votes for Dean saying “you haven’t posted much”.
j-man posts FOS: Sorin and says ryan or Sorin is “our play for the day”
OTM agrees with Sorin’s accusations against me
I respond to OTM and Chaos’ accusations and then pretty much accuse them back
Chaos defends his vote against Gatorguy and tries to say that we aren’t sure that j-man has sanity problems (which is true, but it’s very likely he does)
OTM pushes for me to reveal my episode, I’m suspicious of him and Chaos so I say I will when pro-town players ask for it.
Ryan, Estes, and j-man ask for it, okay at least one of them has to be town so I reveal that I am Ginger cartman and explain why that makes me a miller (I look different from the others)
Gatorguy thinks I am the serial killer and votes for me
Chaos jumps on a chance to vote for Gatorguy again and does do
Gatorguy backs off and says he just wanted to see my response (doesn’t unvote though)
I respond – serial killer should have an episode that Cartman kills someone shouldn’t it? I re-explain why ginger cartman is miller
OTM reminds everyone we need to keep Gatorguy and me alive to determine j-man’s sanity
Ryan points out where OTM previously said we should lynch Gatorguy
OTM says he wasn’t sure why he wanted to lynch Gatorguy earlier, know says he thinks ryan is a misguided townie and doesn’t think he is mafia anymore. Says Sorin and Estes are his two main suspects now.
OTM tells the serial killer to try to target mafia at night (what brought this up??)
OTM goes back and has come up with an explanation for why he wanted to lynch Gatorguy before: says it was before he watched the episode to determine j-man was most likely insane


P11:
Ryan wonders why OTM has Estes as mafia
OTM says he shouldn’t have listed Estes yet because he wanted to get more evidence on him without tipping it off that he was suspicious of him
Ryan votes for Sorin saying he looked back through and didn’t like how Sorin appeared, made a vote, and left again – also wants to hear more from him
OTM explains why he thinks ryan is a townie now – ryan isn’t playing like he played in a previous game that he was scum
Ryan agrees that he is playing different
OTM points out that Gatorguy claimed Vanilla and asks for the episode
I see that Chaos has again voted for Gatorguy even though the town has made it clear we don’t want to lynch him until we determine j-man’s sanity, so I change my vote to Chaos
Ryan says Sorin was the same way, “too opportunistic”, and that’s why he voted for Sorin
Gatorguy reveals his episode
Ryan asks Gatorguy for opinions on Chaos, Dean, and Earwig
Gatorguy says Dean is bangwagon happy and isn’t sure about Chaos. Thinks earwig is a newbie.
Ryan wonders what Gatorguy means by “newbie”
This post is made

[ZeekLTK]

Under P10: I wrote:

OTM agrees with Sorin’s accusations against me

It should read:

OTM agrees with Chaos' accusations against me

[ZeekLTK]

[quote=SorintheSeeker]As for my top suspects, my #1 is still Off the Mark. My other guesses would be Gatorguy and J-man. The people who don't come off scummy to me are ChaosOmega and Estes, but that's just barely.[/quote]

That's odd because after I went through and did the recap Estes and ChaosOmega both stuck out as fairly suspicious and here you are saying they are the least suspicious to you.

Also I'd love to hear this - how does a claimed cop seem "scummy", let alone one of the most scummy people in the entire game? You could have said Dean, or ryan, or even me... but no, you pick the cop and Gatorguy, who most believe is likely to be town (if j-man is insane, which is likely given the episode).

So two of your "scummiest" suspects are the claimed cop and claimed vanilla townie. Interesting.

[ZeekLTK]

Why didn't my [quote] brackets work?

[ZeekLTK]

What's EBWOP mean?

I think I'm gonna change my vote to Sorin. I'm still suspicious of Chaos (and others), but that just seems too odd to say that the two claimed roles are his "biggest suspects". WTF?

unvote; vote SorintheSeeker

Plus, if he is mafia, then we can look a lot closer at Chaos and Estes (his two "least suspicious people").

[ZeekLTK]

How convenient that that you used the episode that aired tonight...

Doc, please save j-man tonight!!

[ZeekLTK]

Plus why would you reveal at this point? Especially without a guilty. We have one cop out. You know we have to protect him. You know we can only protect one (well, assuming there is only one doctor, I don't see why there would be more).

Not to mention that Sorin could have defended himself and avoided being lynched without you revealing if he really is town. If you are the cop you deserve to be killed by the mafia tonight anyways for revealing at such a bad time.

But I don't think you are, this is such an obvious mafia move.

[ZeekLTK]

One more thing (sorry again about multiple posts in a row):

Ugh, whatever. Fine kill him, but don't say I didn't warn you.

Oh okay... so you "reveal" your role in an attempt to stop us from lynching him and then you turn right around and say that you don't care if we kill him? Nice!! What was the point of revealing then?

And if you are telling the truth we have an insane cop and a real cop? I don't think so.

I don't see why you "don't think so". If there is an insane cop (which I'm pretty confident that j-man is at this point) then it would only make sense that there is a sane cop as well.

However, whoever the sane cop is, please do not bite on Estes' bait - stay quiet. Maybe do us a favor and investigate ChaosOmega during the night if Sorin does in fact turn out to be mafia (which I'm very sure he is going to be given Estes' desperate attempt to try to save him in #305 AND the fact that he listed Estes as "least suspicious" in his last post).

[ZeekLTK]

I say investigate Chaos because I'm not sure about him.

This is what I think should happen:

j-man investigates me to check his sanity.

doctor protects j-man to make sure he's still alive on Day 2 so we get the result of this.

"real cop" (if there is one) investigates ChaosOmega to see if he is really tied in with this or if Sorin just threw his name in there to implicate him for some reason. I'm a little more certain that he is in with them after his last response - It's pretty clear I'm a miller and pro-town but he's still trying to make a case against me... that's similar to Sorin saying the claimed cop and claimed vanilla are his biggest suspects.



And also I want to point out, again, that this is an incredibly anti-town move to claim cop when we're fairly confident that j-man is a cop and we need to test his sanity by having him investigate me. So the ONLY person we need to make sure stays alive is him, and the only way to do that is to have the doctor protect him.

So when Estes comes in and says "the doctor better save me tonight"... that's a major anti-town move.

[ZeekLTK]

Zeek: Let me ask you this, would Estes be a better lynch than Sorin?

I guess I would say Sorin because there is a slim chance that Estes is a cop, so if we're wrong it's better to just lose a townie than a cop. But I'd say I'm fairly sure Estes is not a cop so it doesn't matter that much.

It's pretty clear I'm a miller and pro-town

Clear because you say so? Oh ok.

No, not because I "say so".... we already went over this.

By saying I'm going to give a guilty that means I'm either a miller or mafia. I wouldn't do this if I was a town who got innocent because there is no benefit to that, so I have to be miller or mafia. Me revealing as miller helps the town in several ways such as j-man can confirm his insanity, Gatorguy, a likely townie, is not lynched, etc. Even if Gatorguy is not town, me revealing will help us figure that out.

There is nothing anti-town about my reveal (if there is I'd like to hear it) so I don't see how anyone can suspect me as possibly being mafia any more. If anything, it just looks more suspicious on the parts of those who do try to make a case against me.


Also your role doesn't make sense. In the episode, looking at it as though Dawg Cartman is a cop, he gets guilty on innocent people (Butters) AND on guilty people (the teacher)*. So if anything, you would be a paranoid cop. However, you claim you got an innocent result. Dawg never got an innocent result in the episode, so that doesn't add up.

*This is opposed to j-man's where that Cartman gets guilty results on innocent people and does not get guilty when he actually comes up against the real guilty person, which is why I am inclined to believe he is an insane cop.

[ZeekLTK]

It's a given that you're mafia?

[ZeekLTK]

All you did was make a wild accusation that isn't true so I didn't feel a need to respond to it.

Okay I'll bite: that is a very remote possibility, but I am not affiliated with Gatorguy at all in this game. I would have done the same (reveal my role) as soon as j-man mentioned any sanity issues no matter who the guilty result came out on.

Given the recent "cop" claim... I kind of want to hear why ryan had Estes listed as "town" earlier in the game.

And I am still trying to figure out why he had me listed as well because I think that was before I claimed my role...

[ZeekLTK]

RE: whatever someone was saying with the claimed cop/miller whatever stuff... I was not aware that those two were the ones that had claimed that. Yes I read everything, but it's been over two weeks and there's so many new names and claims

What new names? No one has been replaced.

Claims aren't that hard, especially if you read through the thread like you claim you did.

j-man claimed cop, said he was likely to be insane
I claimed miller to help determine his sanity
Gatorguy claimed vanilla townie because of j-man's result
Estes claimed cop to try to save you from being lynched

That's pretty much it.

Honestly, after I typed Gatorguy's claim... I'm kinda more suspicious of Gatorguy because he was acting surprised that there were "mafia and SK, a miller, and 2 cops in a MINI". To me, it seems like everyone in this game has some kind of role with some kind of ability (even if it sucks - like mine), so vanilla townie might not even be a real role in this game!

I guess we'll see on Day 2. But I mean, there is most likely a doctor. There were 2 masons. That's 9 people with a role (at least 2 mafia, a SK, a miller [me], 2 cops [even if Estes isn't the cop, given that there is an insane cop I'd be there is most likely another cop who is sane in this game], at least 2 masons, and a doctor) so why wouldn't the other 3 people have a role too? My guess is there is another mafia (makes 10/12 with roles) and maybe another mason (11/12) so that seems like really bad luck to get screwed and be a "vanilla townie" when everyone else has a role... and again, I don't think there is a vanilla townie here.

[ZeekLTK]

ryan... only two people have changed their vote since the last one. j-man unvoted and Sorin voted Dean...

So it looks like this:

SorintheSeeker - 4 (OfftheMark, ryan, ChaosOmega, ZeekLTK)
DeanWinchester - 3 (Estes, Gatorguy91, SorintheSeeker)
Earwig- 1 (DeanWinchester)
Off the Mark- 1 (SorintheSeeker)

Not Voting: j-man, earwig

[ZeekLTK]

oops I forgot to take Sorin's vote off OTM and obviously I can't edit it.

[ZeekLTK]

ryan maybe you missed this from the last page, but you never answered it...

Given the recent "cop" claim... I kind of want to hear why ryan had Estes listed as "town" earlier in the game.

And I am still trying to figure out why he had me listed as well because I think that was before I claimed my role...

[ZeekLTK]

Gatorguy why are you more suspicious of Dean right now than Sorin?

[ZeekLTK]

Actually we won't know for certain about Estes unless Sorin is mafia.

Otherwise, it's not hard to be mafia and say "hey, I got an innocent" on someone you already know is town.

Estes could have seen that Sorin was about to be lynched and just threw that out there so that after we did lynch Sorin and it came up "town" everyone would believe he was the cop. And then he'd go after j-man at night hoping to doctor protected him instead of j-man.

So Sorin's lynch can help us, but mostly if he's mafia. If he's not there are still questions about Estes.

But we can learn more about Sorin's lynch than we can Dean's, so I'm sticking with that vote... just reminding everyone that Estes could still be mafia even if Sorin is town though, but at this point I will be surprised if Sorin is town.

[ZeekLTK]

They've been sitting on the sidelines since before I claimed miller...

[ZeekLTK]

We've already heard from him... he thinks the claimed cop (j-man) and someone likely to be town (you) are the most "suspicious" people, and one of the guys he said was "least suspicious" (Estes) then claimed cop and said he got an "innocent" result on Sorin... the + and - post...

What more do you need?

[ZeekLTK]

So, I'm kinda more suspicious of you because of that post. Either your not paying attention or you are trying to delay the hammer saying "wait until we hear from him"... even though we've already heard from him, and he did nothing to make anyone who already had a vote for him change their mind.

j-man, finish Sorin off!

[ZeekLTK]

We won't know his role, we'll just know if he's protown- or anti-town.

What do you mean?

[ZeekLTK]

Well that was a bit suspicious. j-man hasn't posted in days and then comes in within minutes of the 5th vote to lynch Sorin....

[ZeekLTK]

Rules

:

• A special rule for this game is that for lynches, the role is not revealed until the next morning. The alignment is know immediately, however.

Yeah so we will know his role... just not until morning. That won't matter.

If he is "anti town" then we know Estes is likely to be mafia and the doc should definitely protect j-man. If he was "pro-town" the doc needs to make a random choice I guess.

[ZeekLTK]

[quote="ryan"So any ideas for Day 2 we should talk about right now?[/quote]

Day 2 will depend on if j-man is insane or not (pending my investigation). If he is sane, it'll be a quick day... lynch Gatorguy and identify someone to investigate the next night.

If not, and Sorin was town, probably lynch Estes if the SK doesn't kill him for us tonight.

[ZeekLTK]

err if Sorin was mafia*

[ZeekLTK]

Here, disregard #399 and #401, I'll just post it over again:

So any ideas for Day 2 we should talk about right now?

Day 2 will depend on if j-man is insane or not (pending my investigation). If he is sane, it'll be a quick day... lynch Gatorguy and identify someone to investigate the next night.

If not, and Sorin was mafia, probably lynch Estes if the SK doesn't kill him for us tonight.


--

If Sorin was town AND j-man is insane then I think Dean and ChaosOmega are the two people to really look into. Maybe the sane cop (Estes or otherwise) could investigate them to be sure. If Estes is the sane cop, I'm sure he was already planning on investigating Dean anyways...

[ZeekLTK]

The people are listed as "dead" in the first post, so no, they aren't coming back.

I think "arrested" is a type of Cartman who abuses his "authoratay" and locks people up for no reason, either as mafia or SK. I remember there was an episode where a lot of people got locked in jail for no reason, but I don't remember if Cartman had anything to do with it. If he did, that's probably the episode for one of the anti-town guys and would explain why people are getting "arrested".

Dawg, IMO, could be one of those Cartmen, so that's why I am suspicious of Estes.

"Disappeared" though... no idea which episode(s) this could come from.

[ZeekLTK]

Night took so long I stopped checking the thread that often, so I didn't notice Day 2 started...

Boo yah. I called it: Chaos as mafia.

But okay... so Sorin was a vigilante? And we lynched him... so who killed a mafia during the night?

I guess there is a serial killer then?

Sorin is back, as earwig, correct? I'm going to refer to that as "earwig" for the remainder of the post to not confuse anyone with what Sorin did with his old role. Speaking of which, is he allowed to tell us anything about his previous role?

Also, I don't understand why role blocking one person would make the mafia not be able to kill. If ryan is mafia and is blocked, then couldn't the other mafia still kill whoever? Or was there only 2 mafia?

To me, I think the most likely thing is that the mafia tried to kill one of the cops and picked the same one that the doctor picked.


Let's see... we have:

For Sure:
2 masons (both died first night)
1 vig (Sorin)
1 mafia (Chaos)

Claimed:
1 miller (me)
2 "cops" (j-man and Estes)
1 "roleblocker" (Off The Mark)

Not Claimed:
1 doctor (???)
1 serial killer (???)
1 mafia (???)
1 unknown (???)

So that leaves earwig, Gatorguy, Dean, and ryan with unknown (or at least unclaimed) roles.

There has to be at least one more mafia, there is most likely a serial killer, and there is most likely a doctor. So that leaves 1 role we don't know. Is it a third mafia? A third mason? A tracker? Something else I'm not thinking of?

Dean's thing about music... Estes can you elaborate? Maybe if we can figure out that role it'll help tremendously.

And I'd really like to hear from j-man about what he got when he investigated me...

[ZeekLTK]

We should look back at Chaos throughout the first day and try to pick up his scumbuddies. Here are a few things that immediately stick out to me when looking over my *long* post on page 11...

When j-man claimed, with sanity issues, Chaos was quick to vote for Gatorguy. The ONLY other person who voted for Gatorguy during that time was Off The Mark...

Also, on page 6 Estes summarized the game so far as "Zeek & ryan vs OTM & Chaos”

Well, Chaos was mafia...

----------

After that post:

Sorin said Chaos and Estes were "least likely to be scum" (turns out Chaos WAS scum... but we know Sorin wasn't so this probably doesn't help us much)

I said to investigate Chaos and ryan, on post #321, tried to spin that and said "investigate Estes instead"...

Two posts later ryan says he doesn't have a read on Chaos.

OTM puts Chaos in the spot light for contradicting himself previously (post #326, read it yourselves, hard to explain).

I again call for Chaos to be investigated in #329

OTM points out that Chaos was defending Estes in a post (OTM's post is #338)

Sorin posts his "list" where Chaos has "+-" (#348)

I again call for Chaos to be "looked into" (#402)

Chaos somewhat defends my "attack" on Estes (#409)

Chaos helped lynch Sorin... others on that bandwagon: me, j-man, ryan, Off the Mark, and Gatorguy


So anyone want to add to that about what they noticed from Chaos on Day 1?

[ZeekLTK]

I know, I was just pointing it out.

And from my experience in past games, usually the mafia do NOT all vote for the same person. So, only 3 people that are still alive did not vote for Sorin: Estes, Dean, and earwig...

earwig is still suspicious to me from his vote on j-man and then he basically went AWOL so everyone stopped talking about him. Maybe we should lynch Sorin again and we'll get it right this time?

[ZeekLTK]

Okay what do you guys think is the 12th role? We've identified 11 roles in the game, what's the last role? a third mafia/mason? or something else?

[ZeekLTK]

So you think it's 3 mafia then?

Right after I posted that I was thinking "hmmm... the town has a vigilante and there is a SK, so there has to be more than 2 mafia because there is a high chance of one of them dieing at night."

So I'm also thinking 3 mafia... and this is the set up:

3 mafia
1 serial killer
-
2 masons
2 cops (1 sane, 1 insane)
1 doctor
1 vigilante
1 roleblocker
1 miller

If this is the case (and no one has lied about their claims) then the doctor has a huge advantage here because he knows who the remaining mafia/SK is. The only problem is a) do we believe the people who have claimed? and b) how does the doctor let the rest of us know who to go after without revealing himself?

[ZeekLTK]

Also why was ChaosOmega "Stan"? Does that mean the mafia are NOT Cartmen? That the other two are Kyle and Kenny?

[ZeekLTK]

There have to be at least 3 mafia, because of the vig and SK. With that many nightkills, a 2-person mafia could be wiped out way too quick.

So we have:

Mafia - ChaosOmega (too bad his role wasn't Butters/Professor Chaos)
Mafia - ?
Mafia - ?
SK - ?
Vig - Sorin (dead)
Mason - Vendagoat (dead)
Mason - DeliciousGoldfish (dead)
Miller - Zeek
Insane Cop - Jman
Sane Cop - Estes
Roleblocker - OTM
Vanilla - Gatorguy

Unclaimed - Ryan, Earwig/Sorin2, Dean

Now Dean is innocent according to Estes's investigation, so somebody is lying about their claim. We have only 2 unclaimed/uninvestigated players left and 3 scum spots to fill. (perhaps Dean is an investigation-immune SK?)

Not really sure where to go from here, but I am still pretty confident Ryan is scum. It fits with this analysis and it fits with my roleblocking, so I'm sticking with it.

I think it's clear that Dean is a mason. I'd like to hear from Estes what the result was when he investigated Sorin (I).

Someone is lying about their role... Gatorguy.

There is no vanilla townie. He's the SK.

ryan and earwig are mafia.

Let's do this!

vote earwig/SorintheSeer II

I'm voting earwig because in the slight chance I'm wrong, I'd rather keep ryan around because he at least partakes in the discussion. Hopefully ryan kills Gatorguy and vice versa at night and then bam, game over we win. :p

[ZeekLTK]

That was kind of hasty, so let me explain:

What I meant for Estes was that I want to know what it said Sorin was doing... since he said for Dean there was something with music (which connects him to the mason).

Same thing for j-man, what did it say about Gatorguy (and me)? Other than just innocent or guilty.


For Gatorguy, he's clearly the serial killer because... why would he claim vanilla when you could claim any role? Well, if he is SK he'll get an innocent investigation (or guilty to an insane cop). So he claims a "safe role" of vanilla townie so that when we prove his innocence then no one thinks anything of it. However, since EVERYONE has a role, there is NO WAY he is a vanilla townie. So if we have cop and miller claims, why would you not claim your real role? You wouldn't if your role was a role that was trying to beat the town.

pending j-man's investigation, we can determine if Gatorguy is mafia or not. If he's not (and I don't think he is) that means he has to be the serial killer.

earwig and ryan as mafia because, well... process of elimination. They are the only ones left without roles... so they have to be mafia.

I notice ryan still hasn't claimed anything... (and earwig hasn't been around to claim).

[ZeekLTK]

Zeek: We haven't even heard from Sorin, how can you be so sure? What if J-Man lied? Dean? You already said that somebody lied about their role, why is it inconceivable that one of those two did? Your logic confuses me.

Dean couldn't have lied because he never claimed anything, but I think it's clear from Estes that he is a mason.

The only way he's not a mason is if Estes is lying, and that means the two of them are mafia, but given the way this game has played out I think it's highly unlikely that those two are working together.

j-man... if you look at j-man's actions from the beginning of the game, he was going after Gatorguy the WHOLE time (because of the guilty result he got). He finally "snapped" (that we weren't paying attention to him) and told us why he was going after him - by claiming his role and sharing his result.

The only claim I really doubt is Off The Mark, but we'll see. To me that makes sense though, if it's you and earwig as mafia... earwig would not have been able to send in the kill since he is M.I.A, and if you were roleblocked you couldn't send it in either.

[ZeekLTK]

Also, didn't Estes claim cop? Why would he lie and say he was a mason if he was a sane cop?

Yes...

Estes basically claimed mason for dean, not for himself... well, Estes posted what his investigation was and it seems extremely likely that Dean is the third mason given what the other 2 mason's roles were AND what Estes got with his investigation.

That is true that Chaos could have sent in the kill too.

Hmmm... maybe the mafia decided not to kill anyone and their plan was for Off The Mark to claim a bogus role and get us to lynch ryan and win (remember his post where he "figured out" that "if we mislynched twice we'd lose")... but he didn't count on Gatorguy killing Chaos during the night!

[ZeekLTK]

We have 10 alive right now. If we lynch, it's:

(I removed the other killing role from this analysis, as it is essentially random whether they kill scum or town and the other role may die at some point and that extra kill will go away - also I assumed 3 scum)

Day 1 - lynch, Night 1 - NK (8 alive)
Day 2 - lynch, Night 2 - NK (6 alive) <-- if no scum have been caught, game over

All the mafia knew going into the night was that the vig was dead, and there was still a serial killer on the loose.

It's perfectly reasonable to assume they said "let's not kill anyone and let the SK kill a townie, then we'll blame the non-kill on a townie and get him lynched, then we'll kill someone on night 2 and win."

Because that's what would have happened if the SK killed a townie and not a mafia, we WOULD be in lynch or lose right now. You guys just didn't count on the SK hitting one of you.

unvote; Vote: Off The Mark

Good strategy though...

[ZeekLTK]

If you aren't a mason then what are you?

[ZeekLTK]

Also, Zeek, If I'm so Obviously the serial killer, why aren't you voting for me?

Because it's better to kill mafia than the SK. The SK can kill mafia at night (like Chaos) so why would we want to lynch him when there are still mafia around?

[ZeekLTK]

It's 5 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 SK at the moment.

I think we've narrowed it down to anti-town roles being 3 out of these 4 people: earwig (Sorin II), ryan, Off The Mark, and Gatorguy.

So that means, out of those four, 2 are mafia, 1 is SK, 1 is town.

Personally I think it's OTM and earwig as mafia and Gatorguy as SK, but regardless...


Here are the scenarios:

We lynch the townie, that leaves 4 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 serial killer heading into night;

Scenarios:
2 town killed = 2 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 SK (Lynch or Lose for BOTH town and sk)
1 town & 1 mafia killed = 3 town vs 1 mafia vs 1 SK
1 town & SK killed = 3 town vs 2 mafia (lynch or lose)
1 mafia & SK killed = 4 town vs 1 mafia
1 town killed = 3 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 SK
1 mafia killed = 4 town vs 1 mafia vs 1 SK
SK killed = 4 town vs 2 mafia (lynch or lose)
no one killed = 4 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 SK

But, no matter who gets killed at night, it should be easy to identify the anti-town players and take the necessary steps to win.



If we lynch a mafia: it's 5 town vs 1 mafia vs 1 serial killer heading into night;

Scenarios:
2 town killed = 3 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 SK (Lynch or Lose for BOTH town and sk)
1 town & 1 mafia killed = 4 town vs 1 SK
1 mafia & SK killed = 5 town *WIN*
1 town & SK killed = 4 town vs 1 mafia
1 town killed = 4 town vs 1 mafia vs 1 SK
1 mafia killed = 4 town vs 1 SK
SK killed = 4 town vs 1 mafia
no one killed = 5 town vs 1 mafia vs 1 SK



If we lynch the SK: it's 5 town vs 2 mafia heading into night;

Scenarios:
1 town killed = 4 town vs 2 mafia (lynch or lose)
no one killed = 5 town vs 2 mafia

At this point we'll still have some doubt as to who exactly are the mafia and who is the townie out of our suspects and we have a good chance of being in lynch or lose.


So it's actually better to lynch a townie today rather than lynch the serial killer. Like I said, I'm still pretty sure it's OTM & earwig, but since there is some doubt about ryan, and OTM has claimed a somewhat believable role... I think the town (and SK's) best bet is to lynch the safest bet to be mafia: earwig.

unvote; vote earwig/SorintheSeeker (II)

[ZeekLTK]

Well, I've had OTM and earwig pegged as mafia ever since early on when OTM voted for earwig to try to distance the two from each other and then as soon as that "bandwagon" got support he suddenly jumped off and threw accusations at me and Dean.

He and earwig were both in on the j-man "bandwagon" as well.

IMO, this is what I think happened. At the beginning of the game OTM just threw his vote on j-man as the 2nd vote and made it appear random. That was fine. But then his mafia buddy earwig threw his vote on j-man as well for no reason. This raised suspicion, so OTM immediately switched his vote to earwig to make it seem like they weren't working together (and to appear to be pro-town for catching "scummy behavior").

earwig realized that he had been too hasty to follow a fellow mafia so he apologized for the vote. This threw up red flags on him so both me and Dean (now vampy) voted for him. Only needing 6 votes to lynch, earwig was half way there, so OTM panicked and withdrew his vote... and then he tried to cast suspicion on the people who had gone after his mafia partner to completely derail the bandwagon (which he did).

Now... a [game] day, and several pages, later after all the claims, we have over half of the people in the game as "very likely" to be town (me, Estes, j-man, Dean/vampy)... but neither OTM nor earwig are in this group.

I also felt like Chaos and OTM were working together a few pages back. I pinned Chaos as mafia for this, and low and behold... he was mafia.

So I'm sticking with my initial suspicion that those two (earwig and OTM) are mafia!

And let's just look at earwig independently:

His third vote on j-man was clearly a bandwagon vote to get him closer to lynching. This is generally a mafia tactic because once you get someone close to a lynch (3 votes needing 6 is fairly close) then, after the day wears on, townies on the fence are more likely to vote for the person with a lot of votes just to get the day over with.

Earwig could have defended his choice as being random and stuck with it, but instead when he was called out on it he did a complete 180 and not only withdrew his vote, but apologized for it. By doing this, it is basically an admission that the vote was not random. If it was random there would be no need to apologize or even unvote.

So if it wasn't random, that means he specifically voted for j-man for a reason... why? Well, it's not hard to figure out... j-man, a pro-town, had the most votes and earwig, anti-town, wanted to push him just a little closer to being hung.

So that's my case. Vote earwig on Day 2!

[ZeekLTK]

ryan, you better hope Earwig/Sorin isn't mafia. You practically just defended him.

Also, I won't be here most of the day. Good luck in whatever happens(if anything does) town.

I don't understand why we were so gun ho earlier to let people speak and than the argument is brought up that somebody hasn't talked much so they should be lynched, that makes no sense to me whatesoever.

We're not targeting earwig because he's not talking, we're (or at least I am) targeting him because he acted like scum on day 1 with him j-man vote.

[ZeekLTK]

*him = his

[ZeekLTK]

Sorin did say some things since replacing which also indicated that even if he is town he's not going to be very helpful anyways.

He asked someone to post what roles had been claimed because he "couldn't keep track". It's not that hard... 2 cops, a miller, a roleblocker, and vanilla townie have been claimed...

He said he read through and added to his "+-" system... okay that was real helpful. [sarcasm]

He talked about his old role but he didn't say anything about his new one. He got lynched before, so you'd figure if he was a townie he'd come out and say 'hey, I'm still not mafia' or something but he just kinda avoided talking about his new role.

IMO the few posts Sorin has made since "coming back" have done nothing to help his cause. What makes you think any further posts will?

[ZeekLTK]

Okay I thought he had made a few posts but all I found was this one:

Everything I said before I was lynched was 100% true and none of my feelings have changed. The exact same people I thought were scum I think are now [maybe I'll add a few more +'s and -'s to my list later =)].


I was a vigilante, though I believe I could only activate it once total, not every night as Stewie claimed. Then again I had to ask what the role actually did (all I got at first was something about making people into chili) so maybe I was wrong. Anyway I had to do at night so I couldn't publicly confirm myself either way so I didn't see any point in claiming. Especially since it didn't really help one side of the other unless we had a confirmed scum (that somehow survived that day's lynch).


Could someone make up a list of claimed roles? Once the first two people started claiming and I knew I had a role, I figured either everyone or a large number of people had roles.


More later.

Okay... so let's take the first sentence. None of his feelings have changed? Didn't he have Chaos listed as "least likely to be mafia"??? So that's kinda odd...

Everything else I summarized from memory (in my previous post) is pretty much correct. I guess he was poking fun at himself with the "+-" thing, but I did remember him mentioning it. :p

[ZeekLTK]

The only thing is... we should wait to lynch him until j-man (or a replacement) can come in and tell us their result...

[ZeekLTK]

Is there anyone else from Utopia on this site? Get them to replace.

[ZeekLTK]

j-man is really slowing this game down...

[ZeekLTK]

I got around to watching ryan's episiode and that really has nothing at all do to with protecting people... in fact Cartman reverts to his "evil ways" at the end...

[ZeekLTK]

You're still complaining about my "freaking logic"? Unbelievable.

You had no case against me OtM, you haven't presented one thing that would sway a town and without me claiming my role, you wouldn't have gotten me lynched. Sorry buddy, you didn't out me, you just through out suspicion that nobody jumped on. Way to lead.

Actually we had it narrowed down to either you or OTM... if we had lynched OTM and he was town then we would have lynched you next.

J-man's replacement, what was the result of the investigation?!?!?!?!

[ZeekLTK]

If earwig is scum then you don't need to "figure out" who to block, you can just block the last mafia member...

[ZeekLTK]

Don't worry about me, let me do my job. I can't discuss it here because it could affect night choices.

There is no need to keep secrets now that we basically know everyone's role. In fact, if we set a plan for night for what everyone is suppose to do (cops investigate X & Y, someone blocks Z, etc.), then if someone doesn't do what they were suppose to it's easy to figure out who didn't hold up their end of the deal, and then we can try to figure out why they didn't (are they anti-town or what?)

[ZeekLTK]

So if you don't want to block a *confirmed mafia* then who do you want to block, and why?

[ZeekLTK]

We sack our groceries in Michigan. :p

[ZeekLTK]

YOU!

[ZeekLTK]

unvote; vote j-man/remussaidow

until he reveals what his investigation was.

[ZeekLTK]

where the hell is everyone else? Even if the 4 of us decide to lynch someone, especially if it's ryan, we can't...

[ZeekLTK]

Great, another replacement.

Better red than dead!

[ZeekLTK]

This new guy is retarded.

You have to investigate me or your investigation result is worthless to us!!

I'm keeping my vote on him for now...

[ZeekLTK]

Also who are you going to roleblock OTM if we kill ryan? Gatorguy?

I think maybe it's safer to keep ryan alive and roleblock him so the mafia don't kill anyone again.

[ZeekLTK]

Listen, people. Ryan is NOT a jester. Look at his behavior on Day 1 and through the beginning of Day 2. He only became jester-like when Gatorguy suggested that he COULD be a jester.

I didn't realize anyone really thought he really was...

[ZeekLTK]

Since one of the deaths is "being arrested" maybe that's j-man...

[ZeekLTK]

Vote count?

[ZeekLTK]

Zeek please vote for Ryan so we can move on.

Fine...

unvote; vote ryan

Can night please not take an entire week this time? People, send your stuff in quickly, that sucked waiting so long.

[ZeekLTK]

Well I was going to ask what Hall Monitor meant, but I figured it was probably on the first post, and it is... but that raises another question:

Alive: 6/12

DeanWinchester

vampyrusddg

Earwig

SorintheSeeker II
Gatorguy91

J-man

remussaidow

Roach

Korran

Off the Mark
ZeekLTK

Dead: 6

DeliciousGoldfish, Talent Agent (Mason, Episode 903), Disappeared night 1
Vendagoat, Christian Rock Band Member (Mason, Episode 709), Arrested night 1.
SorintheSeeker, Town, lynched day 1
ChaosOmega, Stan (Mafia), Arrested night 2
ryan, Evil Cartman (Mafia Godfather), lynched day 2
Estes, Hall Monitor (Cop, Episode 1010), Disappeared night 3

Why is Sorin just listed as "town" now? Wasn't he a vig?


Oh,

vote: roach

[ZeekLTK]

Because of that ^

[ZeekLTK]

Okay so Roach says "OTM is guilty".

Roach is obviously playing anti-town, so unless anyone has a good reason to lynch anyone else, I think we should lynch him for being an idiot.

[ZeekLTK]

Because the only way that you will be useful to the town (via j-man's role claim) is if you investigate me.

But instead you chose to NOT be useful to the town and you did not investigate me...


So it's a very "dumb" move because:

a) if you are town, you're not helping us... AT ALL

b) if you're not town, you blew your chance to make us think you were pro-town


Okay maybe I could have bought j-man being inactive and missing the Night 2 deadline so that could explain the "no investigation from that", but someone pointed it out earlier: roach didn't seem to know that he had an investigation when he came into the game.

And why would he be confused that we were asking him for an investigation result unless he wasn't a cop? Because he's not a cop at all! And why would his role claim cop? Well, probably because it's an anti-town role.


But even if no one buys that, look at what he did: Basically he purposefully investigated the wrong player so that we still do not know whether or not he is insane... and because of him a confirmed sane cop is dead.

Personally, I cannot think of one good reason why a pro-town player would do that, so he has to be the last mafia. Let's lynch him.


*Plus, before anyone even brings it up, him being a replacement cannot even be an excuse for not investigating me, because we spelled it out for him before the last day ended as to WHY he HAD to investigate me, and he STILL didn't do it.

[ZeekLTK]

Also, it looks like OtM blocked the SK last night.

Only one kill and it was different from Night 2's.

So night 2 he blocked ryan (mafia) and someone was arrested.

Night 3 he blocked the arrest but the cop disappeared (mafia killed him).

So OTM, who's our SK?

[ZeekLTK]

I already knew Gatorguy was the serial killer - I said it back on Day 2 - I was hoping you were trying to find the other scum to block.

I think the mafia would kill the cop regardless of whether he was going to investigate their guy or not (it doesn't help them for him to confirm someone is a townie either).

But... I guess you can block Sorin the next night and see if he's the last mafia (I'm hoping he isn't and that Roach is, because I really want to lynch him for not investigating me).

unvote; vote Gatorguy

[ZeekLTK]

We all had strong suspicions of Gatorguy, but we didn't "know" it. I blocked a kill and confirmed him as SK. Win-win. Quit complainin'.

I know... that's probably the best move from you... but I'm just pissed that Roach *DELIBERATELY* made an anti-town move, even though he is likely to be town (which is why it pisses me off so much).

I really hope Sorin/earwig comes up town and we get to lynch roach to win the game.

[ZeekLTK]

A pretty shitty cop.

[ZeekLTK]

Where is everybody? Do we need some prods?

I'm pretty sure Gatorguy is gone for good.

He was in a game we had on another forum and had to get replaced... and he has been gone even longer from here.

But I don't think there is any reason to replace him here since he should be lynched today anyways.

Where is vampy though?

[ZeekLTK]

Roach why aren't you voting?

[ZeekLTK]

Gatorguy, it was a good try, but we found you out (well, I found you out a long time ago, but now we have some proof :p).

Thanks for killing Chaos though.



Oh, are you going to sign up for my game on Utopia? Do it! Starts soon.

[ZeekLTK]

I mean, there is nothing to argue, no one else alive could possibly be the SK.

The problem is: vampy is MIA, Sorin is mafia so he's not going to help us, and Benedict Roach isn't going to help either. So want to do us a huge favor and vote for yourself to help speed the game up so we can get it over with? All this is doing right now is taking up the quota for us (you included) on how many games we can be in.

Even if you vote Sorin and we lynch him instead, you know that OTM is just going to block you again at night, so what's the point? It's over, help us speed up to get to the end game!

Please.

[ZeekLTK]

stewie

, since Sorin came "back" as another role, let Estes come back and replace vampy so we can keep this moving.

[ZeekLTK]

<snip>

Yeah, I can tell Roach isn't very good at this without any "proof". :p

[ZeekLTK]

Okay Roach will you please vote for Gatorguy so we can move on and win this?

[ZeekLTK]

Does this game win an award for possibly worst ever?

This is ridiculous if you look at the scenerio:

6 people alive; 4 townies, 1 mafia, 1 sk...

Everyone knows everyone else's role.

Yet we are stuck on 3 votes for a townie and 3 votes for an SK.

WTF?

[ZeekLTK]

Well, seeing as I'm considered 'insane', I'll just have to trust my gut.

My N2 investigation gave me what I needed, and, for some odd reason, I believe I am NOT 'insane', 'paranoid', or 'quack'. Therefore, with previous plays from OtM, I believe that I'm forcing the scum to act NOW, since I might as well be putting one of their own in danger.

I'm wondering if maybe besides being an insane cop, you are just insane in general.

Not that you listen to logic, but I present:

#1: That post doesn't even make sense. "Trust your gut"? Why? How about trust the logic and evidence that has been presented that you are 100% NOT a sane cop and therefore your investigation is most likely incorrect.

#2: You didn't investigate on "N2" (but for your sake I'll assume you are talking about N3). But what did it "give you"? It gave you a guilty result on OTM. Okay fine, let's pretend for a second that there could be some way you are sane (there isn't, but we'll just pretend for a second)... you also got a guilty on Gatorguy - so why do you refuse to vote for him? You can't say "I got a guilty on OTM so I am going to vote for him" and also completely ignore a guilty result on another player at the same time.

#3: There is only one mafia left, so you are not forcing "them" to do anything. In fact, at this moment you are protecting them by stalling the game. Once we kill the SK (Gatorguy) then we can block the last mafia's kill at night and then lynch him tomorrow.

[ZeekLTK]

What would be proof is that you give me the RESULTS of your 'roleblock', then I'll reconsider.

OTM has already said the results.

Night 2 he blocked ryan, the mafia did not kill on night 2, ryan was GODFATHER.

Night 3 he blocked Gatorguy, serial killer did not kill on night 3, Gatorguy will most likely be SK when we lynch him.


OTM I was about to ask the same thing, if maybe we should just lynch Sorin instead.

[ZeekLTK]

Hmm...but how do we KNOW Gatorguy is the SK and not the Miller?

Because I'm the miller and there is no way there are more than 1 millers in this game.

[ZeekLTK]

Whew

[ZeekLTK]

Can night please not last so long? I don't even know what the metagaming thing is (the reason for making the last night take so long) but there is no reason to make it take a week. Sorin is going to send in a kill, OTM is going to block it, and Roach will probably investigate vampy (since there is no reason to investigate him). That's it...

Shouldn't take that long!

[ZeekLTK]

Dang I didn't even realize the game was back on and you guys already ended it.

Vote: Roach

:p

[ZeekLTK]

So I'm kinda curious why Estes, as a cop who had already revealed all this investigations, couldn't replace in. Was he PMed the result of the investigation during the night he died?