Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[distad]

I'm not really sure where I stand on this one.

I'm relatively comfortable with BMQ as town.

I like Flay's description of Erg0 as mafia/tracker. I actually like that a lot.

I have NO idea what significance the "sleepwalker" might have, though.

As for an SK, I'm torn between CES and Flay. I can see both sides of the argument, especially how CES has been effectively AWOL the whole game.

I don't want to be left with a Flay/CES/myself endgame with 2 town/1 SK, either. I don't want that choice. Still, is that better than a 1 scum/1 town/ 1 SK -- I would welcome that dilemma, though.

Hmmm...

Smog check time. I'll be back.

[Erg0]

I don't recall anyone claiming doctor. Unless I'm having serious memory issues, we had no idea that Glork was the doc until he died.

I also thought it was most likely that the SK was sending in kills during the day, especially considering that we had a gap of several hours between the hammer and the night scene on day 2.

Or, the moderator wasn't around to post the nightscene.

I'm fairly sure that was the reason for the wait, my point was that there was time between the lynch and the night scene for the SK to send in a kill, hence the reason for night being so short.

Both groups targeting the same person last night was one thought I had (though I'd half-expect to see some reflection in the flavour to indicate that). We don't actually know what CES's ability is, so it's also possible that he had something to do with it.

Flay's vote for me is completely OMGUS. I've proved that I am a tracker, at worst I'm guilty of making a bad case on him. If Flay is sure he's not the SK then he should be voting for distad, since he's the only remaining SK suspect.

I tend to agree that the mafia probably have one or powers at their disposal. Given that all we got on Nocmen and Xdaamno was "Mafia" it's hard to know whether they had special abilities.

Flay: Why do you think I wasn't able to track you on night 2?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I should probably specify that, to my knowledge, I have nothing to do with the lack of result on Flay or the lack of nightkill last night. If you're looking for my ability to do something that would help explain what's going on, you're not gonna find it.

Also, I can pretty much guarantee distad is town.

I'm torn between Ergo and BMQ as final scum, but I think Flay's our SK. I'd still like to know who is after Flay on BMQ's list.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Mr. Flay: 1 (Erg0)
Erg0: 1 (Mr. Flay)

Not voting: Cogito Ergo Sum, BrianMcQueso, distad

Three

to lynch!

[distad]

I should probably specify that, to my knowledge, I have nothing to do with the lack of result on Flay or the lack of nightkill last night. If you're looking for my ability to do something that would help explain what's going on, you're not gonna find it.

Then what is your ability?

[Mr. Flay]

I should probably specify that, to my knowledge, I have nothing to do with the lack of result on Flay or the lack of nightkill last night. If you're looking for my ability to do something that would help explain what's going on, you're not gonna find it.

Well, hell.

I'm torn between Ergo and BMQ as final scum, but I think Flay's our SK. I'd still like to know who is after Flay on BMQ's list.

Huh? Ergo and BMQ are scum but I'm your vote? Or are you using 'scum' as Mafia?

I don't know. At this point, I'm tempted to go back to the lynch-someone-block-Flay-to-test theory. If I am the killer, at least we'll know it. The question is how will other night choices interfere...

[distad]

Well, my next choice is Erg0. So, if he survives, at least I'll know a little more about him.

And...

I'm torn between Ergo and BMQ as final scum, but I think Flay's our SK. I'd still like to know who is after Flay on BMQ's list.
Huh? Ergo and BMQ are scum but I'm your vote? Or are you using 'scum' as Mafia?

That's not exactly what he said, Flay. He said that he was split between the two for that last scum and that you are the SK.

What if we no-lynch, block-Flay? With potentially two killers, it would still leave us at worst at 3 players. If we mislynch today, with two killers, it could get down to 2 players and game-over.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm torn between Ergo and BMQ as final scum, but

I think Flay's our SK

. I'd still like to know who is after Flay on BMQ's list.

Huh? Ergo and BMQ are scum but I'm your vote? Or are you using 'scum' as Mafia?

Bolding mine.

I don't know. At this point, I'm tempted to go back to the lynch-someone-block-Flay-to-test theory. If I am the killer, at least we'll know it. The question is how will other night choices interfere...

We might be able to rule you out, but it won't really tell us whether you're the killer. A strategic no-kill would be a fairly obvious move for an SK.

I do suppose, now that everyone else has claimed, it's time for me to do so as well.

*drumrolls*

But, wait!

Let's do my list first:

VitaminR
BrianMcQueso
Glrok
distad
Mr. Flay
Xdaamno
Erg0
Nocmen
Simenon
Seol
LoudmouthLee
Glrok
Mr. Flay
Seol
distad

And that makes my targets:
Night 1: VitaminR
Night 2: BrianMcQueso
Night 3: distad

So what am I?

Let's look through my posts to see whether I've dropped any hints:

Ok, I really believe distad's claim, especially the bit where he says "cult or mafia". That looks genuine. I certainly don't trust his results though. Once you know there are multiple cops in a game, it just doesn't mean that much.

Also, if I'm correct about Flay's theory, he should at this point have heard enough from me. (The specifics of his theory would logically lead to the possibility of me deducing what it is.)

That's totally not the theory I had come up with. I liked my theory. It was kinda awesome.

Mine was better as in more fun and more awesome. But, uh, it kinda relied on you(although I suppose it doesn't need to, it's just a lot less credible). Also, I'm not sharing it as that would require me to claim. It was more of a setup theory.

Also, I can pretty much guarantee distad is town.

At this point I should probably explain what my theory was.

Two words: Dethy cops. That's right. I'm a

third cop

. All innocent results. Distad's mention of mafia/cult type result immediately confirmed him, as that's what I get too, but it's hella confusing having three cops.

As such, when Flay mentioned a theory and noted he required input from me, the knowledge I had that there were at least 3 cops immediately sprang to mind. And certainly, if he had been a cop too, perhaps with some guilty results, then looking for a fourth cop to complete the ensemble is quite logical. I didn't see what else he could be needing me for.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, I'm kinda assuming at least one of us is naive if not both of us.

[Erg0]

Works for me (I tracked you to distad night 3). That really just leaves distad and Flay without alibis.

I still want to lynch Flay today. As I mentioned earlier, my lack of result on him night 2 makes me think that there's a possibility that a roleblock would fail. I think distad is going too far in trying to hedge his bets, which makes me wonder, but CES seems to think his claim works so I'll give him a pass. It has to be Flay today, I think.

[BrianMcQueso]

I'm hesitant to reveal my next target, as it could potentially catch a fake-claim in the bud when they pretend to have a result tomorrow.

I'll reveal if enough people are interested, but right now it just seems to be Cogito.

[Erg0]

I don't think it really helps or hinders us either way, since all of our choices are set in stone anyway (except for the SK, who I believe we've caught already).

[distad]

Well, a third cop, huh? That's certainly interesting.

I really don't have an answer for sanity, as (and I've said this before) I've only received "not mafia or cult" answers thus far. Granted, all but one have been confirmed as correct, so I don't know.

I'm still curious of what you guys think about a no-lynch. I would normally never suggest it, but the numbers do line up.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Nah, a no-lynch now would be relinquishing control of the game.

[Erg0]

Can anyone tell me why we haven't lynched Flay yet?

And this isn't one of those "Lynch that guy kthxbai" posts. I genuinely want to know.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm torn between Ergo and BMQ as final scum, but

I think Flay's our SK

. I'd still like to know who is after Flay on BMQ's list.

Huh? Ergo and BMQ are scum but I'm your vote? Or are you using 'scum' as Mafia?

Bolding mine.

Aha.

I don't know. At this point, I'm tempted to go back to the lynch-someone-block-Flay-to-test theory. If I am the killer, at least we'll know it. The question is how will other night choices interfere...

We might be able to rule you out, but it won't really tell us whether you're the killer. A strategic no-kill would be a fairly obvious move for an SK.

Right, you still think the SK has a nightly choice. How do you explain Xdaamno/Glork's deaths, then?

VitaminR
BrianMcQueso
Glrok
distad
Mr. Flay
(snip)

If I'm your next choice, and BMQ's next target, I fail to see what we lose by trying BMQ's plan. I still say Erg0 is likely lying scum.

As such, when Flay mentioned a theory and noted he required input from me, the knowledge I had that there were at least 3 cops immediately sprang to mind. And certainly, if he had been a cop too, perhaps with some guilty results, then looking for a fourth cop to complete the ensemble is quite logical. I didn't see what else he could be needing me for.

Ahh, I totally see what you were bitching about my theory's suckiness for now. Unfortunately, all I've got in this game is the truth, weird as it is. Dethy cop would have been a much more interesting claim... care to tell us what type of results you get? If you detect SK, we could be golden...

Can anyone tell me why we haven't lynched Flay yet?

[Erg0]

Seriously, everyone else has an alibi. Either it's you or it's distad. It's possible that the sleepwalker thing is some kind of bizarre cover for your real role and that you're genuinely unaware that you're killing, but the fact is that there's nobody else that it could be, unless it's distad. His lack of vote is particularly confusing to me.

Also, specifically what are you accusing me of? You seem to be saying that I'm tracker mafia, but that wouldn't clear you as the SK in the least. If there are mafia remaining they're going to be just as interested in getting rid of the SK at this point.

[distad]

Vote: Flay

I didn't get to do too much on here this past weekend.

After begrudgingly ruling out the no-lynch and between CES's claim and your confirming it, I feel comfortable with this vote.

[BrianMcQueso]

If we were to let Flay live and get roleblocked, I don't see the harm, as his role doesn't seem to be doing anything helpful for the town. By that same token, we don't stand to lose much by lynching him. And in related fashion, that means Cogito is a safe lynch, as he appears to be naive and we stand to lose little from offing him.

Before we move on, I'd like everyone still alive to give me a straight answer: Should I reveal my next non-Flay target? This is important, as I may not be alive tomorrow, and could leave you guys with a confirmed innocent in my place.

[Erg0]

What makes you think that CES in particular is naive? He and distad have both had all innocent results haven't they?

Given that most of our actions are pre-determined, there's probably very little danger in stating your next target. Even if we don't get the SK today, I can't think of anything that he could do with the information to turn it to his advantage.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Mr. Flay: 2 (Erg0, distad )
Erg0: 1 (Mr. Flay)

Not voting: Cogito Ergo Sum, BrianMcQueso

Three

to lynch!

[Mr. Flay]

What makes you think that CES in particular is naive? He and distad have both had all innocent results haven't they?

Shit, I am completely lost in this game.

Unvote, Vote: distad

- CES I'd

really

like to hear what sort of results you get. I just realized all this "Flay is the SK" stuff is partially predicated on distad's result not clearing me, which would be a fair scum tactic. I'm also not liking the idea of

three

Cops...

I don't know why you didn't get a result on me N2. What did it say, exactly? Presumably you didn't get blocked unless it was by Mafia, so perhaps my lack of a choice is confounding things? Have you tracked a Townie yet?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I get "Mafia or Cult" results, just like distad. That's why I'm certain he's telling the truth.

Brian, yes, you should reveal it.

[Mr. Flay]

Unvote

[distad]

What makes you think that CES in particular is naive? He and distad have both had all innocent results haven't they?

Shit, I am completely lost in this game.

Unvote, Vote: distad

- CES I'd

really

like to hear what sort of results you get. I just realized all this "Flay is the SK" stuff is partially predicated on distad's result not clearing me, which would be a fair scum tactic. I'm also not liking the idea of

three

Cops...

I don't know why you didn't get a result on me N2. What did it say, exactly? Presumably you didn't get blocked unless it was by Mafia, so perhaps my lack of a choice is confounding things? Have you tracked a Townie yet?

Yeah, I saw this one coming. The problem is that I can't figure any end-result in your role. It seems like a false-claim and your being an SK makes sense with my investigation results. I have posted everything in advance, and three of my four have been confirmed as accurate. I am, of course, suspicious of CES, but Erg0 is confirming it. I can't imagine two independent killers (mafia/SK) confirming each other. I do buy your mafia/tracker as a possibility for Erg0, but I am more comfortable with your lynch than rooting out a possibility with Erg0. Like I said, after I know your role, I'll be able to confirm my sanity, and I'm investigating Erg0 tonight.