Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Mr. Flay: 2 (Erg0, distad )

Not voting: Cogito Ergo Sum, BrianMcQueso, Mr. Flay

Three

to lynch!

[BrianMcQueso]

The next target's Erg0.

Distad: Why did you rule out your no-lynch idea? I think it merits discussion.

What if we no-lynch, block-Flay? With potentially two killers, it would still leave us at worst at 3 players. If we mislynch today, with two killers, it could get down to 2 players and game-over.

[Erg0]

That's kind of unfortunate, because my next target's distad.

From my perspective we should definitely lynch today. If we do still have two killers and there isn't a crosskill tonight then it'll be one townie, one SK and one mafia tomorrow. As CES said, a no lynch relinquishes control of the game.

I don't know why you didn't get a result on me N2. What did it say, exactly? Presumably you didn't get blocked unless it was by Mafia, so perhaps my lack of a choice is confounding things? Have you tracked a Townie yet?

Paraphrasing, my PM said I attempted to track you but got no result. My two other actions have been on BMQ and CES, both of whom gave me a result along the lines of "You tracked X to Y". The wording of the two results varies slightly between night 1 and night 3, which indicates to me that Stoof was not too concerned about the exact wording of those PMs. The Night 2 PM, however, states very precisely that I tried and failed. I would expect that tracking a townie would give me a result saying that they went nowhere, or did not target anyone.

I may be reading too much into the wording, but aside from this I have irrefutable proof that CES and BMQ did not kill the SK targets on the nights I tracked them. CES vouches for distad's claim, so you're number 1 on my list of suspects, with a big gap to number 2. The possible tracking immunity is just a flavour-related footnote to the main case.

[distad]

The next target's Erg0.

Distad: Why did you rule out your no-lynch idea? I think it merits discussion.

What if we no-lynch, block-Flay? With potentially two killers, it would still leave us at worst at 3 players. If we mislynch today, with two killers, it could get down to 2 players and game-over.

It's not a bad idea, but here's the thing. We have a 40% chance of hitting something today (assuming 1 more mafia & 1 SK). If we hit one of them, there will be a tomorrow.

If we miss, the odds are reasonably good that either both killers target the same person (1/9), or that one of them targets a killer (~5/9 -- the math on this one seems a bit fuzzy, though). The odds even go up a little that they target each other. And because everything is likely predetermined, it gets closer to actually random.

I will still entertain the thought, though.

Until then, all of the signs point to Flay being the right kill.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm here, I just really don't see any questions that I can answer. I'm going to have things to say regarding game mechanics after the game, but for now it's more interesting to see who is voting for me and who isn't.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think we're ready. I don't see us lynching anyone else and it's time to find out if we're right. And I don't want to rely on crosskills.

(I probably would've hammered sooner, but I thought I was already voting Flay.)

===========[]

Vote: Mr Flay

[distad]

So, according to everyone's posts:

Erg0 -> distad
BMQ -> Erg0
CES -> Erg0
distad -> Erg0

That's what we're doing tonight, right?

[Mr. Flay]

Bah; thanks, CEScum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That seems to be correct, yes.

[Erg0]

Wow, everybody loves me!

[distad]

I'm sure that's EXACTLY the case.

[distad]

I need to look back through at exactly why Erg0 believes that BMQ is clean.

I just realized something about his "plan" to no-lynch today and RB Flay to see if the SK has a kill.

If BMQ were mafia, it would all but *guarantee* his winning.

Get this:
5 people. No lynch.
If 1 NK --
4 people. Lynch Flay.
1 NK
2 people, scum win.

IGMEOY: BMQ

[Erg0]

Actually, you're right. My trust of BMQ only goes as far as him not being the SK because I saw him target Sim Night 1. I've only really been hunting the SK today, since we don't really know whether there are any mafia left.

[distad]

After Erg0 worked through the trackings (BMQ to Simenon and CES to me), I see one of three options:
1) Erg0 and CES are both scum.
2) BMQ is mafia/roleblocker.
3) Erg0 is mafia/tracker.

If:
1) We're screwed and only waiting for the closing credits.

I'm still working out the other iterations. Feel free to chime in, though.

[Erg0]

Another option is that one or more people are actually lying about their roles. I've shown that I'm actually tracking people, but for BMQ and CES I can only be sure of the people they targeted, not what their actual abilities are.

It does all add up at the moment though, so I'd actually be mildly surprised if we need another day now that Flay's lynched. Nothing in the claims explains the lack of kill from the mafia last night, and the setup all but rules out the possibility that they chose not to make a kill. Unless there's something "unconventional" in the setup, I really don't think that we have any mafia left.

[distad]

Of course... but, you nailed BMQ on where he went (Nocmen and XD were still alive and could have executed the NK) and then you discovered that CES investigated me. If CES were any killing role last night, I wouldn't be here. Because the two of you confirm that he came to me, you either both have to be scum, or he is 99% innocent -- barring a 'no kill' choice last night.

If BMQ were mafia/RB, it would fit that he RB'd VitR and NK'd him also. There would not be anyone to refute the claim.

And what is the benefit of more than one person lying about the role? There would be a benefit for one person, but unless both are scum, why lie about it? LAL.

What I'm curious about is the lie-by-omission. Assuming that we progress to tomorrow, I fully believe that you are a tracker. I also believe that CES is a cop. Since we've had some blocks, I believe that BMQ is a RB. I know that I am a cop. So, either you held something back or BMQ did.

Time for another assumption... I'm going to assume that scum pre-submitted NKs. Based on that, CES and I will investigate you, and if you are scum, there is no reason for BMQ to lie about targetting you. You get RBd, and CES and I can debate your innocence (with our potentially differing results).

The plot thickens a little if someone dies tonight.

[Erg0]

Have

we had some blocks? I believe BMQ's only revealed that he blocked Sim and VitR, both of whom were townies.

I had assumed that the mafia had to send in a list of kills at the start of the game. I think the big question is: if there are still scum about, what happened to their kill last night?

Yes, the "one or more" is intended to cover the scenario where we have two scum left (though that seems incredibly unlikely to me).

Also, be wary of assuming to much about CES. All we know for sure is that he targeted you last night and you didn't die. Then again, nobody else did either (except the SK's target) and there's no obvious explanation as to why.

[Erg0]

Actually, I just twigged to what you were saying about BMQ. You think the mafia may not have killed because they targeted VitR along with the SK?

[distad]

Yeah. It's certainly reasonable.

My faith in CES comes from you, actually -- which would be the ultimate of ironies if you are the last scum. You confirmed that you tracked him to me last night. Assuming that we don't have a doc and there is but 1 scum, the fact that I did not die coupled with the previous confirmation prove that CES is not scum.

I guess that we might not have had any blocks. I was forgetting that he claims to not have targeted you when you claim your tracking failed.

Still, I'm down to one of the two of you. I don't see a practical reason why a pro-town player would lie about their role. Therefore, based on who (if anyone) dies tonight, we'll be able to pinpoint this down much better.

Of course, if scum do not have to pre-submit NKs, I'd wager a sawbuck that either CES or myself die tonight, and all other bets are off.

[BrianMcQueso]

I find it peculiar we don't bring up suspicion of me until after the lynch has been confirmed. Trying to sling some mud, there?

Also, I have a sneaking suspicion the killer used the same method for creating their targeting list that I did. But that's just pointless speculation at this point.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Mr. Flay: 3 (Erg0, distad, Cogito Ergo Sum)

Not voting: BrianMcQueso, Mr. Flay

[Mr Stoofer]

Day 3 - Sunset

:

"I'm a sleepwalker!" says Mr. Flay, to quizzical looks from the rest of the inhabitants of Metodico.

"That doesn't sound very methodical," someone calls out, "are you sure that you are really from around here?"

After some discussion, the conclusion is that Mr. Flay probably isn't from around here -- and he is lynched accordingly. With that done, the residents leave the Town Square methodically, in the following order:

Cogito Ergo Sum
distad
Erg0
Brian McQueso

***

Mr. Flay -

Serial Killer

- lynched day 3

Night 4: lists being processed.

[Mr Stoofer]

Day 4 - Sunrise

:

As morning comes to Metodico, the residents methodically arrive in the Town Square in the following order:

Erg0
BrianMcQueso
Cogito Ergo Sum
distad

***

It is Day 4: 4 alive means 3 votes to lynch!

[Erg0]

I cannot

believe

I fell for that.

Despite BMQ's "block" I got a result for distad last night, tracking him to me. Thanks to BMQ teasing all of the night choices out of everyone yesterday, I now have no way of proving that I'm telling the truth.

We've almost certainly got a single (non-killing?) mafiate left, or we wouldn't be having this conversation.

2+2=

Vote: Brian McQueso

[distad]

That's really interesting.

Because I found a guilty in my inbox this morning. It was addressed to you.