Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[distad]

Yeah... I feel dumb for switching from Erg0 right before deadline, but I'm glad we ended up finishing it off correctly.

[Erg0]

The initial draft of my first post on Day 4:

Ok, here's what I think happened.
...
...
(runs away)

Points of Mild Interest:

I basically took a gamble on BMQ blocking someone other than me after Flay (a 2 in 3 chance) last night, and I lost. There were a few other options, but they all relied too much on other people's choices for my taste.

In case nobody figured it out, the

real

reason that I was sure Flay was the SK was the fact that he didn't die from our NK on N3. The lack of tracking result on N2 contributed, but I didn't lock him in 'til D4.

I was also really surprised that I wasn't under more suspicion D2 after coming so close to being lynched D1. I did have a counter-argument (Glork's breadcrumb to nothing) but I actually got more pressure from Nocmen than anyone in the town.

Speaking of Nocmen, I was thinking that he suffered some rotten luck with CES's hammer, but given what the choices would have been that night it may not have been as much of a blow as I initially thought. I'm really glad that the scum got a fakeclaim, given that the game more or less turned into a claimfest on D4. I'm not sure if that's an inevitable result of this setup, but it's always going to be a danger if a lot of power roles are around at the end.

I majorly underestimated the impact of the scum not being able to night talk. Our original plan was for Xdaamno to use the tracker fakeclaim, and we didn't have much of a contingency in place if things went wrong. I was expecting Nocmen to use the full tracker claim D2 when he got to lynch-1, but I'm kind of glad he didn't because I probably would have been in trouble without it.

This was my first real game as scum (Open 33 doesn't count), so I was kind of feeling my way along, as Glork obviously saw. I'm not overly thrilled with my own play in this one, though I did feel that I was still in with a shot at the end if not for the roleblock. I've got a decent record of talking my way out of lynches when all other things are equal, so I'd like to think that with distad dead I could have swung BMQ or CES to my side.

Oh, and this is the first time I've been lynched since my first newbie game, back in March. Damn you all.

Good game town, I feel that if we'd won it would have been more on luck than skill.

I just looked through the lists and realised that Flay was methodical. And he would have killed distad N4. Ack.

[distad]

Yeah, if you had convinced town that I was the SK instead of Flay, that night, you would have killed Flay and Flay would have killed CES, and it would have been a scum win.

Like I said, the ultimate irony is that I was fully comfortable with CES because of you.

[Erg0]

I never thought I had a real chance of convincing the town that anyone other than Flay was the SK. With CES confirming your flavour I think it's more likely that I would have been lynched instead. Also, I thought that Flay actually was making kill choices on the fly and I figured I'd be looking like a juicy target by that stage since he'd want to kill scum.

[Mr. Flay]

This setup becomes very difficult in endgame, because choices for power roles always hit someone alive at the beginning of the night, so you don't even have to be that careful with who you stack toward the bottom of your list. Also, with three cops and a tracker, I'm not sure what Stoofer expected me to do. I had a safeclaim?? Sure, I could try to play Dethy with three cops, not knowing what sort of results they were all getting (sorta mod-confirmed there), and the fact that all of their results pointed to the fact that there was an SK by virtue of how they were worded. Plus a tracker who ended up fingering me by virtue of not getting a result...I think Stoof played "the Mod shall not lie to the players" a little too literally here.

I think town was overpowered, in this one. I disagree with disallowing scum talk (I've said that in two prior games, too); sure they had no reason to discuss kills, but a day or so for strategy wouldn't have hurt anything and would have lent a lot more credence to the "random/free will SK" theory. I don't believe this is a game I'd place an SK in again, though possibly two scum groups could work. Or if the SK

actually

could choose their kills each night, like was expected by everyone but me - I

told

you it made no sense for a freely-choosing SK to not kill Glork!

Still, this was my first game as SK, so I'd like feedback on my play. A lot of people had theories that I was the SK from the very start (for crap reasons, in my view), so I played to that a bit by being so WIFOM that you couldn't get a good read, but eventually I lost out to power roles (in my opinion). Also, I forgot about the one-shot NK immunity, but I don't think that would have affected my play any... Also, Lee sent me a couple of charming PMs when I killed him:

So, which killer ARE you?

I'm the SK, just like I said.

Looking at my list, I'm probably the one who killed you, but I did have to submit a list, so the 'randomly' part must be flavor...

Damn. You piece of shite. I had you pegged. PEGGED.

[Erg0]

Plus a tracker who ended up fingering me by virtue of not getting a result...I think Stoof played "the Mod shall not lie to the players" a little too literally here.

You may have missed it above, but it was really the no-kill on N3 that made me sure it was you. I initially took the lack of result as a sign that you were a townie or that Xdaamno was blocked.

I had you down next to CES on my list of possible SKs on day 2, but I honestly couldn't tell you why. I thought i had a point against you on day 1, but looking back I can't see it. I suspect that I just found you one of the least pro-town players of the group that I knew weren't mafia. Of course, I had eliminated BMQ as a suspect by that stage, so I didn't have too many people to choose from.

[Mr. Flay]

No, I saw that. I'm curious what Stoofer would have given you if you'd hit a Townie.

[Erg0]

There were Townies in this game?

[Mr Stoofer]

I agree with some of Mr. Flay's comments on the setup. I think in hindsight I should have allowed the Mafia to talk; I only said that they couldn't because the nights were non-existent. I should have let them talk during the day.

On the other hand, I thought I had given the SK plenty of advantages (1-shot nighkill immunity, safe-claim, cop-immune). Although having lots of cops made claiming cop harder, I did tell him there were lots of cops, which (if I had been the SK) would have led me to claim early, using the "Mafia or Cult" result to prove that I was indeed a cop. Later claimants could then argue amongst themselves, but I could say: "how did I know that the cop-result was (Not) Mafia or Cult if I am not a cop?".

[Mr. Flay]

One problem with this setup that may not have been anticipated is that scum have NO effective way to deal with claims, since all their nightkills are predestined. There's no way I would have logically chosen to kill Xdaamno and VitaminR, leaving Glork/Erg0/distad alive, but I didn't have a choice at that point.

Also, multiple cops is great, but distad's result threw me off, because it could have meant that distad got "Mafia or Cult", LML got "Cult or SK", and the other got "Townie/not Townie". Or whatever... I'm just not seeing that as a safe claim, because if I'd said the wrong thing, it would have pegged me later.

[Mr Stoofer]

One problem with this setup that may not have been anticipated is that scum have NO effective way to deal with claims

I agree that this is a problem in a Methodical game, which is why I took a number of steps to discourage/reduce the effectiveness of claims, including:

• Safeclaims for the Scum.
  
• Most of the Cops were in fact useless.
  
• Lots of hints about a possible Cult.
  
• Giving the impression that there was a non-Methodical killer
  
• Posting the Townie Role PM (as I always do).

Nevertheless, the claims did help the Town at the end. Whether it would have been even easier for the Town if I hadn't done the above, who knows...

Also, multiple cops is great, but distad's result threw me off, because it could have meant that distad got "Mafia or Cult", LML got "Cult or SK", and the other got "Townie/not Townie". Or whatever... I'm just not seeing that as a safe claim, because if I'd said the wrong thing, it would have pegged me later.

You are mistaken. Your Role PM said (emphasis added):

PS: It might help you to know that there are lots of Cops in this game, with varying sanities. They

all

have the following role PM:

[Mr. Flay]

True. I tend not to look at my role PM as scum after N0, so I'd forgotten that point. But I still think it was a tough game as SK. Trackers are nearly impossible to beat, AND three cops?

But maybe I'm just no good at arguing w/o teammates. How DO people defeat SK accusations? There's seems to be no good answer...

[Mr Stoofer]

But I still think it was a tough game as SK.

I don't disagree, but that's true for any game of Mafia...

[distad]

I would have tried the no NK/1-shot vig (to fit into the 'no pre-ordered list') and that you didn't want to use the 1-shot until you were more certain about whom to kill.

It would have been a stretch, certainly, but it would totally have fit with the cop's results and the non-NK.

[BrianMcQueso]

BMQ scum, calling it here. Feel free to embarrass me once the game ends.

^_^

I'm very surprised at how things turned around for me this game. I went from being the likely lynch candidate on Day 1 to seemingly the townliest player on Day 2. I'm glad I waited on my claim, too, else the scum try to get me lynched (which might have been easy, if they had just carried the Day 1 momentum). Roleblocker has always been my favorite role, especially when it comes down to sealing up endgames.

Also, I knew I should have blindly trusted Glork and lynched Erg0. Glork is ALWAYS right!

It turns out I was completely wrong about having my targeting list like up with the Serial Killer's. I started with the one person I had a strong opinion on, then worked reverse alphabetically. I guess I was just overly paranoid when two of my roleblocker targets died on consecutive nights.

All in all, my kudos go to Flay. SK is always an extremely difficult role to play. I think that with an early cop claim (with "Mafia or Cult" flavor text to back it up) instead of a befuddling sleepwalker claim, you could have pulled it off. I had you as pro-town; there's a reason my plan was designed to keep you alive. I had considered that it didn't matter who we lynched, as I would still get a roleblocking in, but I wanted to set up the endgame with you in it because I trusted you. Which is why I'm bad at this game.

[Mr. Flay]

Heh, I meant to ask.

Stoofer, were we befuddling ourselves trying to figure out the order in which we arrived and left?

I was actually able to use that to throw confusion/sense behind my Sleepwalker claim, since it didn't have to do with anything else (I worked out logically whose house I might have ended up at, if I WAS a sleepwalker, based on those lists).

I guess I was just overly paranoid when two of my roleblocker targets died on consecutive nights.

Wait, so you thought YOU might be an unaware Serial Killer??

Honestly, I thought the Mafia

were

both dead (not sure why I thought there could be only two of them, and you a roleblocker), so I was trying to figure out how I could talk my way out of there being no kill once you'd blocked me. If that'd been true, you'd have rethought your trust of me in the endgame, I'm sure. But if Erg0 had killed...*checks back* distad, it'd have been a whole different ball of wax.

C'est la vie...c'est la morte!

But I've just recently had two of the hardest roles I can think of (SK & Jester), so I'm mostly just bitching to no purpose...

[BrianMcQueso]

Wait, so you thought YOU might be an unaware Serial Killer??

Quiet you.

[Simenon]

WTF FLAY I HAD FLAY WTF

[Simenon]

edit: and instead they lynched me. ):

[Simenon]

^_^

Yeah, that hurts a bit, although I still had *something* to be proud of leaving this game.

[Mr. Flay]

Vote Mr Flay

I think I see what you're doing here.

Hi Simenon.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mr Flay, I'm not sure why, but I did have you pegged as the SK even before you made that claim, so you probably did something wrong.

The claim made things a hell of a lot easier though.

Ergo, do you realize that even if distad had been naive too, we could've no-lynched to discover that BMQ really was a roleblocker? A better idea would've been accusing BMQ of being a mafia blocker, most likely. I know I was still suspicious of BMQ after the latest lack of kill.

[distad]

If I hadn't received the guilty, I would have taken things *considerably* slower that last day.

I kept catching myself thinking "But BMQ could have set the WIFOM!" but then I remembered the guilty and all concern washed away.

[VitaminR]

I knew Flay was scum from the first time I read the game! Erg0 had me completely fooled, though.

Very enjoyable game. Well-designed and executed, Mr. Stoofer.

[Nocmen]

Flay wasn't scum though. He was the SK