Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Abstract Actuary]

confirm

[Abstract Actuary]

Vote: Korlash

. His hilarious confirmatory message made mine look bad.

[Abstract Actuary]

Abstract, what happened to your torso?

It's actually really fat, but it's invisible. It's nice, I can eat what I want and no one even notices a change.

[Abstract Actuary]

My instinct is that Korlash is a townie. He is being pretty defensive and rambling quite a bit but he doesn't strike me as scum.

I don't know what "playing black" means. Does someone care to explain it to me? Thanks.

This line

Jitsu, decent scumhunting, putting out the facts of what's been going on without much distortion, very good. Clarity is always in the town's interest, and distortion of arguments and actions is always bad, so I'm happy so far.

in jerubbaal's post 57 sent off my scumdar. It just seems like he is trying hard to align himself with the one person who has been actively "scumhunting" so far. A couple others have done this since, I believe. I admit it's not much, but I just wanted to get it out there.

Part of the town's hurdle this game is the lack of information. We have no idea what we are up against or who could possibly be on our side. We don't even know how many mafia members there are or if there are any mafia-aligned roles helping them out. I think one thing that might be helpful is if everyone gave a guess as to how many mafia members there are likely to be and if there may be any mafia role players out there.

My guess is that there are 3 mafia members and possibly an additional mafia role player, based on the wording in the setup post.

[Abstract Actuary]

Oh, to Actuary, "playing black" refers to Magic: the Gathering. Korlash is actually a card from a new set, and he's a black card (there are five colors). A lot of people think he's the bee's knees, but I haven't been hugely impressed. Korlash is right though, he's big and wins games, so I can't complain too much. I just don't like black decks in general.

Thanks, this is what I was guessing it was.

Also, is there a reason that you considered my post regarding my approval of jitsu's scumhunting habits more sketchy than the others whom you suggest have done the same thing since?

I'm actually not sure why. It was the first one that struck me as "trying hard to look town". It may have been the first of it's kind, but I honestly don't remember. It's really nothing more than gut feeling at this point, nothing strong.

[Abstract Actuary]

I apologize for not being more active. I've been swamped at work lately and the length of the posts so far has made keeping up overwhelming. I'm almost completely caught up at this point, but won't finish until tomorrow morning. I've reached the end of page 7.

I want to comment on this post and the other posts addressing this issue.

Mexal insisted upon the point; whether he insisted directly towards you is irrelevant.

And since when does pointing out what should be obvious become anti-town? Knowledge is power, friend- and at this stage, the mafia has all the knowledge. Anything that increases the level of knowledge to the players increases the town's chance to win. Besides, the point I made should be readily available to anyone who cared to research the game before playing it. Though I do understand if others didn't do as much prereading as I did before my first game.

The mafia do not have all the knowledge. The knowledge that they still lack is any possible town power roles. The exact thing that you are endangering with your suggestion.

Jitsu brought up this point already, but the only thing that doesn't make this a blatant scum move is that a normal scum player could just tell his partners this at night. Unless there is some wrinkle where the scum can't talk to each other at night, this move doesn't make sense no matter whose side you are on.

[Abstract Actuary]

Vote Count as of Post 218

Sudo_Nym (2):

jerubbaal, GunglingerKB

Korlash (2):

Abstract Actuary, Miztef

Miztef (1):

curiouskarmadog

Mexal (1):

Sudo_Nym

Not Voting (6):

Jayalay, Anata112, Korlash, Jitsu, Mexal, oEJo

12 alive, 7 will lynch.


Prodding Jayalay

Note:

Please bold "Mod" in all future in-thread communcations. (or send a PM) Sometimes I only have time to skim the thread, and that makes things easier to spot.

NabakovNabakov

: Miztef unvoted, but he already pointed that out. I think you also missed Sudo_Nym's unvote for Mexal in post 145.

Also, I was assuming that the Korlash voters were red because you weren't counting Gunslinger's earlier vote for Korlash that wasn't bolded. Now that Gunslinger has a real vote, I'm curious. Are they red for some other reason? If this has already been explained, I apologize.

[Abstract Actuary]

I really don't like Gunslinger's analysis. It's been halfassed and mainly rooted on what he calls his feelings about things. Be particular. If you aren't pointed and specific about what you find wrong with people, everyone else here has no reason to believe anything that you say. I have absolutely no reason to trust your "feelings." If your only justification of an idea is a feeling, I'd rather you keep it to yourself than throw it out there to distract other people. Follow it up, if you want, and find something hard, but I'm not going to waste my time chasing down a feeling of someone I have no reason to trust.

I want to address the sentiment in this paragraph as well as in some other jerubbaal posts (and maybe some others). Maybe the game is played very differently on this site than I've played it before. If it is, I'm not sure I completely agree with the benefits to that (this mostly deals with my second point).

All we have is feelings. Gut instincts. There are no absolutes, unless you are on the mafia. To talk about absolutes in mafia, is absolutely foolish. If you need to absolutely believe that someone is mafia before you vote for them, I'm not sure how you will ever vote.

Sure there is some evidence out there, like inconsistent arguments and poor plays, but still all we have is a feeling about those plays. Those plays alone don't make a player guilty or innocent.

You made a comment like this after I said that I had a gut feeling about you based on your scumhunting praising of Jitsu. I even pointed to the exact sentence. That is what you would call "hard evidence". Just because I used the word "gut" in my post, don't assume the suspicion is any less worthwhile than when others do the same thing and not use the word "gut".

Addressing a second assertion that I disagree completely with: I would like to hear everyone's opinion and gut feelings on everything and everyone. In the first round, it has very little value. But as the game moves on and we begin to learn more and more about who people actually were, I would love to have a very rich history of every player commenting on multiple things that every other player did, even if those comments were just "gut feelings". When someone turns up mafia this is by far the best evidence we have.

I'm also a little disappointed in the lack of voting. I wish everyone had a long trail of voting history after they died. The way to gather the most information for later in the game is to put real pressure on people now and then look back later when we know more and analyze how they reacted. I don't necessarily mean the people getting the votes either. I mean their potential scumbuddies who are forced to make a decision about bussing them or trying to derail the wagon or try to start up a new wagon.

My point is that I think that everyone should have a bold vote down at all times. I'm not saying I want to string someone up, but let's force everyone to make a real decision, not just say whatever they want (without consequence).

[Abstract Actuary]

I would appreciate some comments on where you stand on people so far. Like, who do you find scummy and why? Who do you find town and why? I saw you commented on Sudo, but that was one little thing and you've been gone awhile.

I assume you're caught up now that you're questioning the vote count.

Sorry, I'm still pretty busy, I'm trying to put together some opinions.

I would like to comment on the second part of your suggestion. Is it a good idea for us to list people we think are town? In the games I've played we don't do that because it puts a big NK target on their backs.

[Abstract Actuary]

Honestly, you've missed pretty much all the discussion the past few days. I don't think you have any right to criticize us for our play in that time since you haven't participated in any of it. If you want us to vote, pressure us to vote. If you want us to post our thoughts, pressure us to do it. Just because you come out of nowhere expressing your disappointment that we're not adhering to principles of gameplay that you expect us to...the same principles you're not adhering to since you haven't even been here for days, hardly means we have to listen to it. I would agree with your sentiments had you been around. I like votes, I like lists...to an extent. But the fact that you've barely participated in this game, barely posted any suspicions yet you're still chastising us doesn't sit right with me. If you want to be taken seriously, start by helping the town find the scum.

I apologize that my post came off so harsh. I'm just trying to sort out the general strategy used here and compare and contrast it to what I'm used to.

[Abstract Actuary]

Sorry, I'm still pretty busy, I'm trying to put together some opinions.

I would like to comment on the second part of your suggestion. Is it a good idea for us to list people we think are town? In the games I've played we don't do that because it puts a big NK target on their backs.

They're a NK target anyway. The scum already know who is town and who isn't, so I don't think it matters all that much.

In your last post, you stated you wanted people to post lists with opinions on everyone. Wouldn't that list include pro-town opinions as well? If so, then expressing who you think is town, or least suspicious isn't any different then what you were telling us we should do.

Besides, while it might put a target on their back (it's already there anyway as I'm sure the scum can figure out who looks town and who doesn't) it also helps the healer (if there is one) possibly heal a target or the cop (if there is one) investigate a target.

The mafia does know who is town and who isn't, but I would much rather they take someone out that I may have thought was on the mafia then someone I was pretty sure was town. I agree, in general, they will have a pretty good idea of who is a suspect and who people think is town, but I don't want to help them out.

I see why I seem hypocritical about this point. I said I wanted everyone to give an opinion on everyone and everything. I should have made some qualifying statements. I would rather avoid making lists that list everyone or saying someone who isn't on anyone's radar is probably town. These are unnecessary observations. If someone is taking considerable heat and you say you think they are town, that is perfectly fine and a good play, in my opinion, because you are defending someone in the spotlight. Something the mafia doesn't want to be forced to do.

So I would revise that to say that I would like it if everyone gave their opinion on all the hot button topics and people. I realize this is something I have not done yet in all cases.

To be honest, I haven't got much of a scum read on anyone at this point. Most of the fighting seems to be around theory and not actions and seems to be between two townies. That is mostly because there isn't a lot of action (voting, trying to derail bandwagons).

Ask me about a specific event or fight and I'll give my opinion.

I play on the ActuarialOutpost. It is in a small subforum where we play one large mafia game every few months. We use some pretty different rules in some regards. I'd be happy to discuss them further in PM (if that is allowed).

[Abstract Actuary]

Well, the current commonly regarded most scummies are Sudo, for irresponsible posting, and Miztef, primarily for inconsistency (at least in my book). I'm curious what you think about them.

I think some of the things Sudo_Nym has done have been strange. I agree with Mexal's original point, though, that we can dismiss them because they were asked for or qualified, that's great way to float an opinion and have an alibi if it is run with. This coupled with his relative experience makes this a decent possibility.

Miztef, at first I had pegged as a town player who wanted to turn up the heat on people silently (the first to put someone to 3 [ckd], the first to put someone to 4 [Korlash]). But with the relative caution shown by everyone else in voting, it is starting to seem as if he was too willing to push the wagons. And the change of heart he had midgame about this practice makes it seem like he was trying to cover for his earlier hastiness.

Currently, I am most suspicious of Miztef so I will

Unvote: Korlash
Vote: Miztef

[Abstract Actuary]

Edit: Should be can't dismiss them

[Abstract Actuary]

If a deadline were to hit immediately, the player highlited in red would be lynched. In that (false) VC, Korlash and Sudo_Nym were tied for the lead in votes, but Korlash had recieved his before Sudo_Nym.

Thanks for the explanation. Deadlines will never hit immediately, right. We'll always be given some sort of warning first?

[Abstract Actuary]

I'm also out of town this weekend, but there is a chance I'll have access to the internet.

At the moment, Miztef still tops my list. His latest post about the Anata112 triple vote reinforced my thoughts from earlier. I think the point he made was a very good one, I just also think that he is trying to distance himself from the strategy he was using earlier in the game since he started taking heat for it.

According to his earlier argument, that he is usually suspected of being scum in the first round when he is town, you have to believe that he doesn't really mind taking the heat, usually, and likes putting pressure on people. So if he was town again, I think he would just shrug it off like usual ("they always think I'm town the first day, no big deal"). The fact that he is trying hard to back off that strategy makes me suspicious.

[Abstract Actuary]

My opinion of the Anata situation is somewhat neutral. I found her summary post to be acceptable. I don't think she represented it as a comprehensive list of every issue. Of the stuff she said, much of it was a simple restatement of events but some of it was useful. In fact, I found myself agreeing with a few of her points about Jitsu.

Then Jitsu attacked the post for the subtle attacks on him. After some other debates died down, Jitsu brought it up again and then the bandwagon against Anata formed. Frankly, I'm surprised her post and Jitsu's attack resulted in a bandwagon. I do find her lack of a response to be suspicious, though.

My vote is currently on Miztef and I still think he is the scummiest player to date. I know I haven't participated much, but to be honest, I don't have much to say. At this point we are just running around in circles. I think we need to get a night under our belt and then go from there.

Is there some sort of penalty for requesting a replacement? Why is this accepted? I know that sometimes there are extreme circumstances, but it seems like there isn't a very high standard used by players who request a replacement. It is really annoying.

My preference would be to wait for the two replacements, have them catch up on the thread and give their thoughts, and then proceed with a lynch.

Of the people who have been mentioned as possible lynch candidates I would support lynching them in this order: Miztef, GunslingerKB, Sudo_Nym, Anata112, Korlash.

[Abstract Actuary]

Miztef and Gunslinger I understand. Sudo I do not understand very well. Please tell me why you support a Sudo_Nym lynch as your 3rd best choice. What do you hope to learn from it?

To be honest, I don't feel "great" about any of them at this point. But it's just day 1, and feeling strong about any candidate on day 1 is very foreign to me. After the first two, I just ranked the remaining three candidates, all of whom in my opinion may have done some strange town things, but all of whom haven't really stood out as scum, to me. Sudo_Nym's general play style and strategy (post for himself, suggest anti-town things) pushes him ahead of the other two in my list.

Let's assume that there are 3 mafia members out of 12. From my perspective everyone starts out with a ~28% chance of being scum. I'd put the last three on that list somewhere around that 28%, with the first two somewhere in the 30s or 40s.

I really can't believe there isn't any penalty for getting a replacement. So someone could sign up for every game and then just withdraw when they find out they didn't get a special role? Sucks.

I'll go dig up the original Anata112 post now and address this:

What did you think was useful? And which points did she make about me that you agree with?

[Abstract Actuary]

Jitsu asked me

What did you think was useful? And which points did she make about me that you agree with?

If I misinterpreted something, please let me know. I would welcome any replies to any concerns that I may have. What I have done was summarize the activity so far, since that helps me think and keep track on what has happened. Then I follow up each summary with my own thoughts. Hopefully this summary would help with the discussion

Ok, I guess she did represent it as a comprehensive summary. Hmmm.

Her post is mostly summary, but it contains commentary on some of the more subtle events. Like in this portion:

Abstract Actuary
Not much input so far, other than explaining his instincts, and putting up a random vote. However, his vote was a second one, so it seems to me like he’s trying to start a bandwagon initially in the game.

Jitsu
He first started off with a vote for Abstract, and then unvoted him. He stated that Jayalay seems townie-ish and that the initial voting stage was quite random. When Miztef started pushing for a fourth vote, he agreed. He also agrees with Miztef that random voting is good for checking for people’s reaction. He also seconds the guess that korlash is a townie. It’s interesting to me on how he’s sure that certain people have a townie-vibe. After checking for new posts, he agrees that sudo_nym shouldn’t have proposed the mass claim, but he was the one that asked sudo_nym what his ideas were. Am I wrong here?

Basically, what I agree with, is that while many others have gotten all pro-town vibes from you for your persistent scumhunting and long and detailed summary posts, I'm not yet convinced you are pro-town. I'm not saying I'm sure your scum, but you seem to be trying to "get on the good side" of a lot of the pro-town players. A subtle way to make people think you are honest and innocent is to tell them that you think that they are innocent. Subconsciously they won't want to vote you out, since you are an advocate. I've just seen this type of play done before by scum.

My basic point about this issue is that while her summary may not have been a perfect summary of the game to that point, it didn't seem scummy to me.

[Abstract Actuary]

Unvote

I'll remove my vote until the replacements get a chance to catch up and give their opinions.

Thanks for replacing Satael and Adel.

[Abstract Actuary]

There is no concrete evidence because we are still on day 1. From my experience there is never any concrete evidence on day 1. All we have are "scumtells" and gut feelings.

I still think Miztef is our best choice for the day. I'd still like to hear from the other replacement before finishing the day (and preferably get and here from the third replacement).

Adel, I can completely buy into patterns you can pick up from post count, post length and most, most, most importantly the trail of voting record and FoS's etc., but all of those things don't become significant (in my mind) until at least day 2 when we begin to learn some allegiances. And I still don't think they become great, hard evidence until we've lynched a mafia member. So, especially without an explanation I can't follow your lead at this point. I admit that Korlash has posted a lot, and a lot of crap, but he seems to readily admit that that is how he always plays. In my experience mafia members tend not to play that way on day 1.

Most importantly, I know you don't want to reveal the secrets to your methods, but "no comment" is not an acceptable answer to people's questions. If someone asked me a question (or Korlash or a number of other players) and they responded "no comment" the rest of the town would jump all over them.

[Abstract Actuary]

Vote Count as of Post 593

Korlash (3):

GunglingerKB, Adel, Sudo_Nym

Miztef (2):

curiouskarmadog, jerubbaal

Anata112 (2):

Jitsu, Miztef

Adel (1):

Korlash

Not Voting (4):

Satael, Abstract Actuary, oEJo, Miztef

12 alive, 7 will lynch.

(Korlash remains red despite Miztef's unvote)

I think you removed Mexal's vote instead of Miztef's for his unvote. Or you had Miztef listed twice instead of Mexal. I think Mexal still has an active vote on Miztef.

[Abstract Actuary]

I believe the vote count should be:

Korlash (3): GunglingerKB, Adel, Sudo_Nym
Miztef (3): curiouskarmadog, jerubbaal, Mexal
Anata112 (2): Jitsu, Miztef
Adel (1): Korlash

Not Voting (3): Satael, Abstract Actuary, oEJo

with Miztef in red (he was at three votes first)

Miztef unvoted, otherwise I agree. Also Anata112 is now Satael.

[Abstract Actuary]

Most importantly, I know you don't want to reveal the secrets to your methods, but "no comment" is not an acceptable answer to people's questions. If someone asked me a question (or Korlash or a number of other players) and they responded "no comment" the rest of the town would jump all over them.

I could choose to ignore a question, evade it, or answer it in bad faith- instead I reply with "no comment". I admot it isn't the perfect solution, but I consider it superior to the alternatives.

I agree that "no comment" is better than the alternatives you listed. It still seems to me that anything from that list would be deemed scummy if Korlash did it.

[Abstract Actuary]

Thanks for replacing Mr. Flay. Very . . . brave of you. Ha.

And, seriously, Korlash, just stop posting crap. You don't need to make a googly-eyed response to every single comment, I promise. Please continue posting anything you have to say that is game related.

[Abstract Actuary]

@Adel/everyone, I feel that I've given an opinion on anything substantial that has happened. If after this post, you know that isn't the case for a specific issue, please ask me a question and I will answer it.

As I've stated before, I find it hard to have any strong opinions one way or another on day 1. Most of the analysis I have done in previous games (on a different site, already discussed) has been based on voting history and analyzing cases/defenses after we learn some people's allegiances.

That said, I'll try to give my thoughts on some of the more debated players.

At this point, I still find Miztef to be the scummiest player. His recent wishy/washy voting with Korlash enhances my suspicions. He's just trying to throw a bunch of stuff against the wall and hoping something sticks to get the attention away from himself (which has happened, even though he still has quite a few votes).

I never liked the case against Anata112, but I do think her asking for a replacement and then playing actively in another game is somewhat suspect. I could still see her as just an annoyed townie, though.

I'm not sold either way on Korlash. Before I thought he was just a townie who posted a lot and confused himself and others in the process. Now, he has claimed a role, but it seemed very early to do so and I'm not sure why he did it. Also, the fact that there has been no counterclaim means almost nothing to me. Since the roles aren't clearly stated and the existence of the role he claimed was probably unlikely in the first place. A scum could pick a role like that and have pretty good confidence that the role didn't actually exist, so no counterclaim would come.

Sudo_Nym has done some very strange things but also given me a town impression.

oEJo didn't really do much in the thread before being replaced. Since he has come in Mr. Flay has seemed pretty neutral to me. He seemed to be saying some pro-town things, but I'm surprised at how much he has gone on the offensive with Adel.

Jayalay didn't do much either before being replace. Adel has played strangely, to say the least, but I have no reason to believe that her play is any more likely scum than town. Some of her insights have been pretty solid (when actually provided).

[Abstract Actuary]

I unvoted him earlier to give the replacements a chance to talk. We've heard from them now. My suspicion of him has actually grown stronger with all the wishy/washy Korlash voting. I am ready to move on to day 2.

Vote: Miztef

[Abstract Actuary]

During a reread, I came across this quote. It followed the Sudo_Nym mass claim event.

The problem with that is if we let two days go by there is a chance of... 6 townies dead. Leaving us at a probable 3-3 situation which is game over. Overall I do not see the term "mass claim" coming into effect. I can see a cop or tracker claim day 2 followed up by doc protection that night, but I don't see the point in a mass claim ever unless we only have 1 mafia left to deal with. Doing it too early could result in a claimed cop v. claimed cop situation resulting in either real cop being lynched or Nked. and a claim to late results in no more info then we would already have. Overall I am fully against any claim unless your life depends on it.

Or thats my opinion. As the game progresses and the situation turns one way or the other I may be inclined to change my mind. But I doubt it.

Korlash, did you feel as though your life depended on you claiming at the time you subtly claimed?

[Abstract Actuary]

Also this is another reason I hate the Roleblocker role. It is so uncommon the player who gets it (In this case me) is screwed over cause he doesn't get the benefit of begin able to claim a role and get out of a lynch... .

but didnt your claim save your ass day 1 from a lynch?

I would hardly say that it saved him. At the time of the claim he was only in a small amount of danger.

[Abstract Actuary]

Korlash, did you feel as though your life depended on you claiming at the time you subtly claimed?

Yes I did.

If I'm rereading correctly, you had 3 votes at the time. It takes 7 to lynch! Adel was leading an attack on you, but most of us were on record as not completely buying into it or at the least, not prepared to lynch you.

[Abstract Actuary]

I can't decide what I think about Korlash. His roleblocker claim is an easy one to fake as scum, since no one would likely counterclaim. The meta-work appears to be somewhat incriminating but it's fuzzy. He posts a lot of crap and as of late has even confirmed that he does this to be purposefully hard to read. That is definitely not pro-town. Are we okay lynching someone who has claimed a town power role and hasn't been counterclaimed. At what point is it okay to lynch someone who has claimed?

GunslingerKB has posted very little substance and his continued absence is dangerous for the town if we allow him to live while leaving very little trail.

I would be willing to lynch either of them today. I think there is more evidence for a Korlash lynch but I could be persuaded to make it GunslingerKB, since he is giving us so much less to work with.

[Abstract Actuary]

This is one of my first mafia games on this site so you guys will have to help me out with typical next day activities after a mafia lynch. But here goes.

so the question is: who bussed Korlash?

Is that the best question to ask? I know at the very least it isn't the only question. What about the players who didn't vote for Korlash (I know I am on this list)? I do understand that oftentimes mafia will put a vote in for their scumbuddy, especially late when it seems that the lynching is inevitable.

Nominate

: Sudo_Nym to take the point position in asking questions, and lead the town for the next few pages.

I'm willing to apply heavy pressure to any player that evades or ignores his questions.

Is this typical? Why single someone out for this role? If, like Mr. Flay suggests, you feel strongly about their innocence, making that apparent is very bad, isn't it? Also, I'd prefer that everyone actively discusses everything that happened, instead of one person leading the charge.


My top suspects:

jerubbaal: Placed the hammer vote on Korlash. A big scumtell on my other site. Also, this quote screams, "I know he is scum." Only 2 other people "knew".

The case against Korlash is very strong and based on very little speculation, so I see little reason to drag the day out any longer. Kudos to all those who caught the contradictions. I hope the cases continue to be this clear.

I also still think his original praising of Jitsu was scummy.

GunslingerKB: He and Korlash voted for each other in the random vote stage. He voted for Korlash at the end of day 1, too. He stayed silent last round. He was acting suspicious and not answering questions. He asked to be replaced after a scumbuddy was lynched. Note: the last three points may be related to a real life event, and not a scumtell at all.

What about the idea that GunslingerKB was mafia, didn't respond "overnight" and that is the reason he is being replaced and also the reason no one was killed overnight? Is this type of speculation typical/allowed?

Setael: She cast the L-1 vote for Korlash, in a scummy way. Korlash defended her (Anata112). Korlash cast his dying vote for her. If Korlash is clever then he did a good job setting Setael up to go down with him by leaving this trail. If that is the case, I especially suspect Mr. Flay for being the first to point it out. Also, all the Anata112 arguments about being replaced and then participating in another game.

Related sidenote: If you get replaced in a game, does it still go on your "record"?

[Abstract Actuary]

Setael: She cast the L-1 vote for Korlash, in a scummy way.

Please expound. How was it scummy? I found a post no one else had mentioned that imo proved korlash had lied. Everything else being used was from ongoing games and could only be hinted at but the one I found was in this game so I quoted it.

The post in question was not much evidence at all. In past games I've noticed that the late voting scumbuddies like to echo the existing arguments and try to throw something new in there to make it look like they have a reason to vote for the person in question "now" instead of "before" when the existing arguments were already in place. In other words, "this is why I'm voting now, so late, instead of earlier."

There was actual evidence found that korlash lied. I was more confident about my vote for him than I usually am because of the contradiction I found in his posts. I was not surprised he was hammered fast because there was just no other way to explain his contradictions other than that he was lying about his role claim. I am much more suspicious of those who read the thread and then didn't vote korlash (or didn't at least bother to check the meta that was being hinted at).

I have a question for everyone who didn't vote for Korlash. Did you check the thread, read the posts pointing out his contradictions and lies and then not vote? If so, why? What reasons did you have for still thinking he wasn't scum after those posts? (I recognize that not everyone will have read the thread since the hammer came so quickly but I'd like to hear from those that did and decided not to vote).

I disagree. I did read the posts in question. I read the arguments by those who thought they were especially damning. I thought it made him look bad, but it wasn't as cut and dry as some people have maintained.

There were three posts in question. The first post in this game that he mentions not knowing about the role, a much later post in this game where he defends his ignorance about the role and the post/events from the other game. The post/events from the other game came

after

the first post in question. If it came before then the case would be as cut and dry as many were saying. The fact that it game before his defensive post was bad, but not damning, in my opinion.

You say,

What reasons did you have for thinking he wasn't scum after those posts?

You can read my post following this debate. I thought he was possibly scum. I wasn't totally sold. I stated I was willing to lynch him and even thought he was probably our best choice. But I wasn't ready to lynch him at the time. Frankly, even though we got a mafia member on day 2, it left something to be desired. We didn't gain much other information (apart from his allegiance and evidence surrounding his demise). I would have rather we examined some other people who haven't taken any heat yet a little more closely before the day was out. A quick hammer, even on scum, is beneficial to scum.

[Abstract Actuary]

AA: Why did you think Gunslinger asked for replacement after his scumbuddy was lynched? I don't see where NabakovNabakov said that. NN said that Gunslinger had not responded to his prod and was in danger of being replaced. And that was well before the Korlash wagon got up to full speed.

I forgot about the prenight replacement comments by NabokovNabokov. In light of that, the replacement is less suspicious. He may have thought, "Wow, my partner just got caught, the rest of us are in trouble, this is hopeless." There is still a pretty solid case against him, in my opinion. I would prefer we waited for a replacement, though.

You seem to find Setael scummy, but then you turn it around in the next sentence and explore the possibility of her being innocent (the scum setting her up) pointing the finger at Mr. Flay. Then in the final sentence, you seem to go back to referring to the arguments against Anata and her dropping out. So what do you really think about her?

I do find Setael scummy. I have her as my third suspect in my post and that stands. I think the evidence against is very real, however, if Korlash was clever enough most of it could have been set up by him to paint her as scummy once he went down. That was my only point. The evidence exists; a clever Korlash may have planted it.

If that is the case, I especially suspect Mr. Flay for being the first to point it out.

Please share with us the quote that led you to this conclusion, and expand on why you think it would be a scumtell on Mr. Flay.

For this argument, lets assume that we lynch Setael today based on the connection to Korlash and she turns up innocent.

As I say above, Korlash may have cleverly (or inadvertently) set up Setael to be lynched after his demise. Mr. Flay was the first to introduce the concept of a Korlash-Setael connection on day 3 in this post.

Setael was 5th on Korlash's wagon, and Korlash went down with Setael as his vote-target. Interesting...

It isn't much, but Mr. Flay, as scum, may have realized that Setael could be an easy post-Korlash sell and tried to plant the seed early on. I admit, the Setael-Korlash connection is very real.

I know there are a couple big ifs. I'm not advocating a Mr. Flay at this point. There are much better choices for Day 3 in my opinion. I just wanted to get that idea out there now, while it was fresh in my mind.

[Abstract Actuary]

AA, how the hell does that post "scream scum?" The case was completely clear, and I think Setael's point made it even clearer. You would have to be a donkey not to see the lie after so many people pointed it out.

The case was not that cut and dry. I saw all the evidence but I have never found a case in any mafia game where you can be absolutely positive that someone is scum (barring some role player's influence).

Short days benefit scum.

[Abstract Actuary]

Vote: jerubbaal

I would be willing to vote for Setael and GunslingerKB (after we've heard from his replacement) as well.

[Abstract Actuary]

I bolded that part to emphasize since it WAS "as cut and dry as many were saying" if you take post 521 into account, which for some reason you aren't. You are saying that post 585 was the first of your "three posts in question" where he says he doesn't know about the role. I'll repost mine here for you, since you seem to be unaware of his post 521 which was long before 585 (the one you're stating was the first post made). Anyone who read my post and compared korlash's posts 521 and 585 would have seen that he had obviously lied.

When the argument was first being discussed 521 hadn't been found yet. I agree that 585 was definitely a lie in light of 521. Most people didn't vote for Korlash with that fact in hand (only you and possibly jerubbaal did). I did miss the significance of post 521 when I first read your post since I realized that a hammer had just fallen. In my first read, I just read the strange way he explains how he plays as scum.

That post doesn't clear you as town, but it justifies your vote, in my opinion.

[Abstract Actuary]

Well, thank you for that concession. Care to tell me what you think of everyone else who thinks my vote WASN'T justified? Do you think they missed the significance of post 521 like you did, or are they intentionally ignoring it?

I don't think your guilt rested solely upon your late switch to Korlash.

Anata112 was suspicious on day 1. This can be mostly ignored if you give a replacement a clean slate.

Korlash was the biggest advocate of slowing down an Anata112 lynch on day 1. I also resisted an Anata112 lynch, but that is neither here nor there.

Korlash cast his dieing vote on you.

You did switch to Korlash when the bandwagon seemed inevitable. Even though I concede you found good reason to do so, that doesn't mean you aren't scum. You may have had this piece of information in your back pocket all along and been waiting to use it until you saw that a Korlash lynch was inevitable. Or you may have decided, "Korlash is going down, I need to get a vote in for him, but I don't want it to seem like I'm switching late for no new reason", and you went out and found something new to justify your vote.

[Abstract Actuary]

I appreciate you unvoting to avoid a quicklynch, even though I agree that is unlikely. If I get to -1, I will expect to be allowed to claim, though I will not do so before -1.

Wow. Korlash version 2? What a scummy, terrible town play. You're basically claiming at L-3.

[Abstract Actuary]

L-2 (Sudo_Nym, 788): Sudo votes for Korlash because he doesn't believe his claim and doesn't care for his playstyle. Korlash's response is to joke about how he predicted that Sudo would vote him.

[clipped]

Korlash's strongest reactions were to CKD (presumably for finding the meta), and to Flay (probably due to Flay blasting him for his anti-town playstyle).

He barely reacted to Sudo at all at L-2.

He did not react to the L-1 vote (Setael) either, presumably because it was only 75 minutes before he was hammered, and the death scene was posted a mere 9 minutes after the hammer.

I would interpret this in a slightly different way. In the last two rounds Korlash kept going on about how Sudo_Nym and GunslingerKB were prepared to vote for him on a whim at any time. Then he basically predicts it again a few posts before Sudo_Nym's vote, here.

Huh.. I was half expecting to come home today and find meat L-1 or even lynched... I guess that is cause Sudo and Gun haven't posted in huh XD

The point is, I could see this being 1 of 2 things, that both lead to Sudo_Nym and GunslingerKB being potential scumbuddies. First, Korlash may have wanted to hammer home the fact that Sudo_Nym and GunslingerKB have been voting for Korlash all game long. Second, he may have been saying, "it's ok, guys, I am fine with you bussing me, go ahead and vote."

[Abstract Actuary]

I appreciate you unvoting to avoid a quicklynch, even though I agree that is unlikely. If I get to -1, I will expect to be allowed to claim, though I will not do so before -1.

Wow. Korlash version 2? What a scummy, terrible town play. You're basically claiming at L-3.

How am I claiming at -3? In case you got confused, I haven't claimed. It's ironic you'd say this since the whole point of my statement is to say I WILL NOT claim before -1.

Wow. I know you weren't officially claiming, that was the point of your post. I said you were "basically" claiming. Because by making it a point not to officially claim, but threatening or warning us that you will do so when you get to L-1 is the same thing as saying, "Hey guys, I have something to claim, so don't quicklynch me."

Saying, "Hey guys, I have something to claim," is basically claiming. Do you need me to explain it further?

[Abstract Actuary]

I've been prodded . . . I thought we were waiting on a complete reread and analysis from Oman. It now appears as if that may not be coming.

My thoughts coming out of night 2 haven't changed much. I'm going to try to do a complete reread at some point this week or weekend.

Vote: Abstract Actuary

- multiple insinuations that Korlash is just a townie D1, even deflecting suspicion on him in post 79 while attacking jerubbaal AND speculating on the number/composition of the Mafia!?! Post 239 shows AA finally unvoting Korlash and jumping to... Miztef. Furthermore, even as late as 614 he is still defending Korlash, and lobbying to lynch Miztef (now known to be town) despite the fact that he himself unvoted once the replacement parade arrived. 815 has an incredibly sketchy suspicion on me for helping frame Setael... Post 824 is tricky, because he was probably already posting it when NabNab mentioned Oman's imminent arrival 3 minutes earlier, in 823. The only other player to 'miss' Oman's arrival is CKD in 826, but he practically bankrolled the Korlash wagon, so that doesn't seem relevant.

My initial impressions of Korlash was that he was a very talkative and annoying townie. In day 1 especially, I got a lot of townie vibes from him. They were wrong, obviously. Even in day 2, I didn't think there was a strong case against him until he was caught in a lie, which I never fully realized the conclusiveness of until day 3. Other than that I thought the cases against him as mafia were extremely weak. For that reason I defended him on both days to some degree. There isn't much more I can say. He seemed town to me, I was wrong.

There isn't anything substantial in the remaining accusations. They seem pretty . . . forced.

[Abstract Actuary]

AA, who do you think might be Setael/Korlash' third? Why do you think there are exactly three scum?

My only reason to think that there are 3 scum is from what I've seen, with 12 players, 3 scum is pretty typical. It is a poorly informed guess, I admit and I wish that the more experienced players would give their impression. I also wish everyone would have answered the question when I posed it. If you think that is a curious thing to ask, think about the piece of information we would have if Korlash had given an answer. Granted, we would know he could be trying to purposely mislead us.

Right now my vote is on jerubbaal. I am also planning on doing a thorough reread sometime this week or weekend. But if you want, I can take a guess now on who I think would be Korlash/Setael's 3rd.

Assumption: Setael is scum. If this is true, I am pretty sure Mr. Flay is innocent, because I don't think he would have brought up the Setael/Korlash link first on Day 3. Adel is probably innocent. I'm innocent.

This leaves, Sudo_Nym, curiouskarmadog, Jitsu, jerubbaal and Oman (GunslingerKB).

If Setael is guilty, I would think that jerubbaal is innocent, since I don't think scum would place the second to last and last vote on their scum buddy.

I would guess that Oman or curiouskarmadog are the third.

[Abstract Actuary]

I would guess that Oman or curiouskarmadog are the third.

based on what?

Not much, really. As I've said, my vote isn't even on Setael right now, I plan to do a big reread this weekend, and I was forced to "make a guess" based on an assumption I don't necessarily agree with.

Oman, because GinslingerKB was suspicious in the past and Setael may have decided that it was time to push Korlash's wagon over the edge once GunslingerKB began taking more heat.

curiouskarmadog, because Setael made a point to come out with new meta information, perhaps not wanting to simply fall in line with curiouskarmadog's meta research and provide a link there.

[Abstract Actuary]

To avoid any confusion:
I believe the second quote from Jitsu's previous post should be attributed to me.

[Abstract Actuary]

As I've said, my vote isn't even on Setael right now, I plan to do a big reread this weekend, and I was forced to "make a guess" based on an assumption I don't necessarily agree with.

Wait, so you're disavowing #831 now? What happened to your suspicions on Setael/Korlash??

Also, I apologize for the null-edit at the bottom of the last page, I hit the wrong button, and unfortunately have global edit power so I didn't realize it was going to show that message. I'm not cheating, honest.

My current vote is on jerubbaal. Setael is probably second on my list. I'm not sure what disavowal you are talking about.

[Abstract Actuary]

Jitsu's last post is interesting.

I will not be making a case against him for his partner to hide behind

That pretty much sums it up. If you want to read someone else's case against Flay, I'd suggest pressuring Jerubbaal for one. I'm going to be pretty damn stubborn about this.

I guess I just don't fully understand the logic behind this. Do you have a case against his partner? Or do you still need to catch his partner?

If you already have a case, then you can just post who his partner is and the case against each of them and then they won't be able to "hide behind" your case against Mr. Flay, since we will all be watching for that.

If you are still waiting to catch his partner wouldn't the perfect way to do it be to present your solid case and then see who "hides behind it"? Of course this option is no longer available . . .


I spent a lot of time rereading this weekend, but haven't gotten through it all yet. Based on what I've read so far I think that Jitsu, curiouskarmadog and jerubbaal are looking more town.

Thus,

Unvote: jerubbaal

I'll continue my reread this week and post some more analysis when I finish, while keeping up with current conversation.

[Abstract Actuary]

Setael's reason for voting AA was weak

Does that mean that you think this:

You may have had this piece of information in your back pocket all along and been waiting to use it until you saw that a Korlash lynch was inevitable.

is an argument likely to be made by a townie? Cuz I don't. I obviously didn't notice this until Flay pointed it out, but what Abstract accused me of makes no sense for either town OR scum. It's contrived to make me look scummy, which makes it a good argument against Abstract. He hasn't acknowledged it, which makes it look increasingly like a good argument.

re: Adel's refusal to present a case on Flay - I'm not seeing FlayScum and I think it's ridiculous to think you can successfully get the town to lynch someone without ever presenting a case on them. I won't be joining the Flay wagon.

I didn't think it needed addressing. This whole issue arose after I admitted that you presented a good reason to vote for Korlash. You asserted that that made you innocent and asked me to question the other people voting you. I said that, just because you had good reason, does not mean you are innocent. There are two scenarios in which you, as scum, could have presented this legitimate case against Korlash. (1) You had that information for awhile and were waiting until Korlash was definitely going down to present it or (2) you decided it was time to bus your partner and you went looking for a good, new reason to do it so you wouldn't look suspicious for switching without your own reason.

You think that (1) is not possible and therefore makes me scummy.

First of all, even if you think that the explanation is not valid, the conclusion that I am scummy for presenting it is ridiculous. I didn't present it as fact. I didn't even present it as the only option.

Second, it is a reasonable explanation. If you were scum and you found this damning piece of evidence against your partner, you wouldn't have presented it immediately. You probably would have sat on it until he was going down anyway. I don't see what is so unreasonable about that.

[Abstract Actuary]

I came into this day with no reason to suspect Mr. Flay. Since then some decent cases have been brought up against him. The thing troubling me the most has been his general weak defense.

I'd still like to hear more from Adel regarding Mr. Flay and who he thinks Mr. Flay's partner is (once whatever trap he is waiting for is sprung).

Are we waiting for more from Oman? Or has his entry into the game been satisfactory?

[Abstract Actuary]

I would like to hear what you mean by clumsily made, but I'd appreciate you waiting for AA to respond before doing so.

Really? I didn't think there was anything new to respond to. You keep saying that I am ignoring your case but I think you are just ignoring my responses.

Well, here goes anyways.

It seems like a weak reason for to vote him when you would have had stronger reasons to vote someone else. In 965 you say that you don't think that was an argument that a townie would make, but then you went on to agree with Flay and say that such a move would be weird both for town and for scum. So why then did you assume AA was guilty because of it? Shouldn't it have been a null tell if you couldn't make sense of it?

This also is inaccurate and shows that you never did understand the argument. The point was that what AA accused me of is very unlikely to be done by

both

town

and

scum and yet he's trying to paint me as scummy for it. To bring it up in the first place was a real stretch and not an argument a townie would come up with imo.

Really? Still? Again you are either misremembering or purposely misrepresenting this situation.

I didn't actually vote for you. I listed you as third on my list of suspects in 806 for putting Korlash to L-1 in a scummy way. You did. You put Korlash to L-1 in a scummy way. You made sure to have new information in order to justify your vote for Korlash. Scum is much more likely to feel the need to find a new reason to vote for a scumbuddy near the end of a wagon.

Then you helped me understand that Korlash had a true contradiction within this thread and I admitted that your reasons for voting for him were legitimate.

Then you basically claim that this makes you innocent and ask me to question everyone still voting for you. Note: this is exactly what a scumbuddy is expecting when he makes his "groundbreaking" case to bus his scumbuddy close to a lynch. It added to the possibility that you are scum bussing with new evidence.

I respond to this by saying that I don't think it completely exonerates you. This is the post that you continue to question. The first thing to note is that this whole time I have never voted for you. I had you as third on my suspect list the whole time and never say that you have moved up that list at all. Also, and most importantly, I was responding to a bogus point that you made (the fact that it was new evidence and your vote was justified clears you).

Multiple times you've said something along these lines

The point was that what AA accused me of is very unlikely to be done by

both

town

and

scum and yet he's trying to paint me as scummy for it. To bring it up in the first place was a real stretch and not an argument a townie would come up with imo.

It is not unlikely to be done by town or scum. Also, I wasn't trying to paint you as scummy for it. I was telling you that it didn't clear you as town. That is very different.

I will add that you said I've ignored some things you've said. Here is an example of you ignoring me.

This is post 965 embedded in my post 966 where I immediately responded to a similar accusation from you.

Setael's reason for voting AA was weak

Does that mean that you think this:

You may have had this piece of information in your back pocket all along and been waiting to use it until you saw that a Korlash lynch was inevitable.

is an argument likely to be made by a townie? Cuz I don't. I obviously didn't notice this until Flay pointed it out, but what Abstract accused me of makes no sense for either town OR scum. It's contrived to make me look scummy, which makes it a good argument against Abstract. He hasn't acknowledged it, which makes it look increasingly like a good argument.

re: Adel's refusal to present a case on Flay - I'm not seeing FlayScum and I think it's ridiculous to think you can successfully get the town to lynch someone without ever presenting a case on them. I won't be joining the Flay wagon.

I didn't think it needed addressing. This whole issue arose after I admitted that you presented a good reason to vote for Korlash. You asserted that that made you innocent and asked me to question the other people voting you. I said that, just because you had good reason, does not mean you are innocent. There are two scenarios in which you, as scum, could have presented this legitimate case against Korlash. (1) You had that information for awhile and were waiting until Korlash was definitely going down to present it or (2) you decided it was time to bus your partner and you went looking for a good, new reason to do it so you wouldn't look suspicious for switching without your own reason.

You think that (1) is not possible and therefore makes me scummy.

First of all, even if you think that the explanation is not valid, the conclusion that I am scummy for presenting it is ridiculous. I didn't present it as fact. I didn't even present it as the only option.

Second, it is a reasonable explanation. If you were scum and you found this damning piece of evidence against your partner, you wouldn't have presented it immediately. You probably would have sat on it until he was going down anyway. I don't see what is so unreasonable about that.

I was first suspicious of AA when he said "Setael: She cast the L-1 vote for Korlash, in a scummy way" which I thought was ridiculous. See my post 807.

AA then said this:

As I say above, Korlash may have cleverly (or inadvertently) set up Setael to be lynched after his demise. Mr. Flay was the first to introduce the concept of a Korlash-Setael connection on day 3 in this post.

Setael was 5th on Korlash's wagon, and Korlash went down with Setael as his vote-target. Interesting...

It isn't much, but Mr. Flay, as scum, may have realized that Setael could be an easy post-Korlash sell and tried to plant the seed early on. I admit, the Setael-Korlash connection is very real.

I know there are a couple big ifs. I'm not advocating a Mr. Flay at this point. There are much better choices for Day 3 in my opinion. I just wanted to get that idea out there now, while it was fresh in my mind.

Coming into this post I had no suspicion of Mr. Flay. You were third on my list that had already been posted. I admitted there was no case against Mr. Flay for it and it even depended on you coming up town after a lynch today. I just wanted to get it in writing when it happened in case that situation ever materialized.

In this post, AA casts suspicion on both Flay and myself while distancing himself from the whole argument and being careful to not actually accuse Flay, even specifically stating he is not "advocating a Mr. Flay" lynch. He then does not say who all these better choices for Day 3 are.

See above, I already stated my top three suspects for the day well before this post.

Right after this, Flay votes me not long after Adel votes him and says "Post or perish". The reason he gives for the vote is "because the idea of a "clever" Korlash framing her makes me giggle." I wondered at the time if this was to see what AA would do after his post 815. AA doesn't respond; instead I got 2 quick votes from Adel and Jitsu. AA then votes jerubbaal without commenting on my wagon other than to say he'd be willing to vote me. At this point it's very much looking like he knows I would come up town and wouldn't want to look like he'd been too involved. I originally voted him because of his crap argument against me, but upon rereading I'm starting to think that if some pressure was put on him and he was forced to talk a little more, he'd reveal himself as obvscum pretty quickly.

I had you as third on my list and jerubbaal as first. I didn't see any reason to add my vote to you at the time or comment on the wagon.

[Abstract Actuary]

It is not unlikely to be done by town or scum. Also, I wasn't trying to paint you as scummy for it. I was telling you that it didn't clear you as town. That is very different.

You listed it as one of the ways in which you thought I was bussing. How is that not painting someone as scummy?

Again, I was responding to your claim that it cleared you completely and showing scenarios where you as scum could have still made that post/vote. It wasn't an attack it was a rebuttal to your claim that you were cleared. Regardless, it is not unreasonably and if it paints you as scummy then it paints you as scummy.

You say, I list it as one of the ways in which I thought you were bussing. Again, reread that post, it isn't under the pretense that I think you were definitely bussing, it is under the pretense that you may still have been bussing, despite having a reason for the vote.

A lot of your post was regarding my reaction to this post:

When the argument was first being discussed 521 hadn't been found yet. I agree that 585 was definitely a lie in light of 521. Most people didn't vote for Korlash with that fact in hand (only you and possibly jerubbaal did). I did miss the significance of post 521 when I first read your post since I realized that a hammer had just fallen. In my first read, I just read the strange way he explains how he plays as scum.

That post doesn't clear you as town, but it justifies your vote, in my opinion.

Because your suspicion of me was based on my vote being unjustified,

Wrong. Maybe this is where there is a disconnect. My suspicions of you never had anything to do with your vote being unjustified. In fact, the fact that you went out of the way to have a justified vote is where part of the suspicions come from.

I did read too much into this by asking for your thoughts on all those who refused to see that my vote WAS justified. I was thinking "Someone finally sees the light! I'd like to know what he thinks of those who DID realize the significance of post 521 and yet still think I was bussing."

I realize that I should not have been assuming you'd see things as I was seeing them, especially now that I realize you're probably scum.

I didn't actually vote for you. I listed you as third on my list of suspects in 806 for putting Korlash to L-1 in a scummy way. You did. You put Korlash to L-1 in a scummy way. You made sure to have new information in order to justify your vote for Korlash. Scum is much more likely to feel the need to find a new reason to vote for a scumbuddy near the end of a wagon.

When did I say you voted for me? You cast suspicion on both Flay and I but didn't vote at all. Like I said, "In this post, AA casts suspicion on both Flay and myself while distancing himself from the whole argument and being careful to not actually accuse Flay, even specifically stating he is not "advocating a Mr. Flay" lynch. He then does not say who all these better choices for Day 3 are." You were being overly careful, distancing yourself from your own arguments and not taking a firm stand.

This situation got blown way out of proportion. At the time I made the post because I could see the scenario where Flayscum sparked the fire on day 3 to lynch Setaeltown based on the connection to Korlash. It was a big hypothetical with a lot of ifs and I've said that all along. At the time I didn't have any reason to believe that Mr. Flay was actually guilty and I thought that you were more likely guilty than innocent. So it involved 2 big ifs that I personally didn't believe at the time. I just wanted to get the scenario out there for use later in the game if certain things came to fruition. This is why you perceive me "distancing" from it. I was. I didn't think it was that solid. I didn't vote for Mr. Flay for it and he didn't get into my top three suspects even.

[Abstract Actuary]

I'm here. I keep thinking I'm waiting for more arguments and defenses from Mr. Flay, Adel and Oman, but I don't think any are coming. As it stands despite not suspecting him at all coming into the day, Mr. Flay is my top suspect, followed by Setael.

Adel, have you revealed everything you have to reveal? If there is more information coming before the end of the day, when is it coming?

Oman, is your vote on Adel only because you think the likely scum group is Korlash, Adel and jerubbaal? Based on the fact that Adel pushed Korlash hard since he came in and then named jerubbaal as his likely partner and then has since backed off of that accusation?

[Abstract Actuary]

I'm here. I keep thinking I'm waiting for more arguments and defenses from Mr. Flay, Adel and Oman, but I don't think any are coming. As it stands despite not suspecting him at all coming into the day, Mr. Flay is my top suspect, followed by Setael.

please provide 2-3 reasons why Flay is now your top suspect.

Also, why did feel it was important to let us know, going into today, you didnt suspect fflay at all.

The main reason I am suspicious of Mr. Flay has been his play today. First he somewhat led the charge against Setael and then unvoted because the wagon was moving too fast. Since then he has thrown out a couple of weak arguments for other players and then backed off of those arguments when no one joins his wagon. It seems like he is just trying to get the spotlight on anyone else. And then most importantly is his rather lazy and weak attempts to defend himself.

I wanted to point it out because I thought it was odd. Others can correct me if they feel differently, but I thought Mr. Flay was rather low on the suspect list coming into this day. So he had almost no negative attention before today and now he is our top suspect - but it isn't for anything he did on previous days, it is for how he acted today.

[Abstract Actuary]

Oman, is your vote on Adel only because you think the likely scum group is Korlash, Adel and jerubbaal? Based on the fact that Adel pushed Korlash hard since he came in and then named jerubbaal as his likely partner and then has since backed off of that accusation?

Ya, mostly.

I think this argument is extremely weak.

Assumption: Adel, Korlash and jerubbaal are the scum team.

This means that Adel came into the game and bussed Korlash as hard and as blindly as I've ever seen anyone be bussed. While doing so he named his other scum buddy as the likely scum partner - knowing that Korlash would come up scum and afterwards people would definitely come back to that statement. And then when Korlash is lynched and comes up scum and eventually people come back to that statement, now he decides to back off a little bit.

Why would he do this?

If he wouldn't want to bus both partners he would have never said jerubbaal was the likely partner the day he came in. If he did want to bus both partners he would have bussed jerubbaal just as hard as Korlash, saying "see, I know what I'm talking about." The situation that you propose requires Adel to want to bus both partners at the start and then for some reason change his mind, which he would know would call him into question - despite the fact that nothing changed for him (he knew Korlash would come up scum). I just don't see this scenario as likely at all.

I'm not saying Adel isn't scum and I'm not saying jerubbaal isn't scum, but I don't think they're both scum.

Also, I don't think Adel is scum. He came in and did his best to bus Korlash - and he eventually got his wish. Now, after that happens he probably has a pretty good opportunity to combine that with a jerubbaal lynch. If jerubbaal is town he can lead to this townie lynch and still say, "well I was right on Korlash, I guess the link to jerubbaal was off, but still 1/2 is pretty good." and come out still looking pretty clean. If jerubbaal is scum, and he decided to double bus day 1, he would have went through with it and come out looking incredibly clean after leading to two straight scum lynches.

Instead, Adel looked elsewhere. I think Adel is town.

I think Adel has just done a lot of work and a lot of talking without saying anything. Also note that I feel that in Adel's character (huge meta here), she would gladly sac a scumbuddy straight up.

Independent of this game, I agree 100%.

[Abstract Actuary]

This is the part of it I don't like.

You say Adel is town because she wouldn't bussed Korlash and names Jerrubaal and doesn't actually go after Jer. Whereas I say she is scum for those very reasons.

How ironic.

I think if the three of them were all scum, he would have either never named jerubbaal or else named him and then went after him just as hard. Nothing in between.

Do you think he would have planned to name the other scum partner and then back off of that? Or do you think that he changed his mind?

[Abstract Actuary]

My top choices for scum are Mr. Flay and Setael. I don't like Adel's playstyle, but I don't think he is scum. I especially think Mr. Flay is a much better lynch than Adel.

I will

vote: Mr. Flay

.

[Abstract Actuary]

Yes. Is there a reason we should hold off on doing so at this point?

[Abstract Actuary]

curiouskarmadog, it isn't in the town's best interest to force people to claim. For instance, if we are going to lynch Mr. Flay anyway, we would not want Adel to have to claim (vanilla or power) as that would help the mafia overnight.

So, I'm fine with a vote on Adel if you think he is a better lynch than Mr. Flay, but putting him at L-1 for the purpose of getting a claim is not a good play, in my opinion.

[Abstract Actuary]

what makes you think that I put adel at -1 JUST to make her claim? Seems like a jump in logic.

I didn't say you put her at L-1 just to make her claim. I just said that if that was your motivation then it isn't a good one. If you think Adel is a better lynch then I am fine with you voting for her. But I don't think you should vote for her "just to make things interesting" or especially if you are trying to get her to claim.

I think claims are good...how do you think we caught Korlash in his lie

Additional claims aren't good - if you need me to explain why, let me know, but the rest of the posts on this page saying so should be enough evidence if you are still skeptical. We caught Korlash in a lie because he made a bunch of mistakes. He wasn't even in any position to claim a role and he did.

...now settle down AA and quit pushing crap.

LOL. I'm not "riled up" or "pushing crap". If your vote on Adel is for the sole purpose of forcing her to claim you should unvote her. I also think that you should only vote for her if you would like to see her lynched, because your vote makes it a real possibility.

Adel is still female, folks.

Ha. Every time I write something about her I always write it with female pronouns and then go in and change them to male pronouns because for some reason I thought I remembered someone correcting me the other way before.

While I agree with AA that we shouldn't have more people claim than is necessary, it's by no means a sure thing that I'm going to be the lynch for today. Right now just one vote (or unvote) would change that. I will claim or give my final scumlist, or both, if people want. It does not appear that there's a will to quicklynch me, which is a good thing.

I agree that it isn't a sure thing, I just didn't want curiouskarmadog to vote for Adel for the purpose of getting her to claim if he ultimately thought that you would be lynched or thought you were a better or equal candidate.

So, I'm fine with a vote on Adel if you think he is a better lynch than Mr. Flay

@AA - did you really just say you'd vote Adel if CKD thinks you should?

Ok nvm I think I misread your post. What you're saying is you're "fine with" CKD's vote on Adel. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Yes, I meant that I was ok with curiouskarmadog voting for Adel if he thought she was a better lynch. I didn't mean to imply anything about my own vote.


I think the issue of full disclosure has already been addressed, although being a relatively new player I'm not exactly positive what you guys are asking or what his answer means.

Mod: does this game have a fully open reveal?

If Korlash was a Mafia Roleblocker, would that have been posted?

Additionally, if Mexal or Miztef had a role, would that have been revealed with their death?

My policy on revealing reveal policy is decidedly closed. Better luck next time.

[Abstract Actuary]

First, I think people should remove their votes. Oman, specifically, do you always believe every claim you hear immediately? There is no need to rush this lynch and it is possible we are in a lynch or lose situation (although unlikely).

I'm innocent, therefore Setael is either lying scum or an insane cop. I'm very tempted to believe curiouskarmadog, especially since a final two of jerubbaal-Setael seems very reasonable, although I'm slightly nervous that they are both scum and both lying. Although, this really doesn't seem likely because fooling us (we lynch Setael, find scum, believe curiouskarmadog and lynch jerubbaal, find town) isn't a win for the mafia unless they have three members remaining.

FoS: Setael, jerubbaal

[Abstract Actuary]

ok my meeting was pushed back an hour.

Oman, I dont agree with you. All things constant, I can understand a jer., then Set lynch, but why dont we wait to see what Night actions (tonight) information develop. Also I count 7 people, not 6 (Oman, CKD, Set, AA, Jerb, Sudo, and Jitsu.)

AA, Set can not be an insane cop, she said she got an innocent on Mex, and we all know Mex was a town. Furthermore, I cant be insane either, because I got a guilty on Korlash.

Jerb, if I am lying..then Set must be telling the truth and AA is scum. Why arent you voting AA with Set?..why are you voting me instead?

That is good to know and I hadn't considered that. With that knowledge, I know that Setael is scum. I believe that curiouskarmadog is the cop and jerubbaal is guilty, although I do admit there is a chance that it is a double false claim.

At this point then it seems there will be a divide of curiouskarmadog and myself against Setael and jerubbaal with Oman, Jitsu and Sudo_Nym in the position of making the decision.

I would prefer to lynch Setael first and jerrubbaal second.

Setael's last post really sounded desperate. I just don't understand the motivation behind the fake claim today by Setael unless there are 3 mafia members remaining.

[Abstract Actuary]

@AA: Why is it better to lynch Setael first?

For me, I prefer to lynch Setael first because I know that he is lying and therefore must be scum. I think it is highly likely, because of that that curiouskarmadog is telling the truth, but it isn't a certainty. There is a small possibility of a double claim.

In the end I would be willing to lynch jerubbaal over anyone other than Setael.

@Jitsu (or anyone else) in a situation like this wouldn't we want to lynch a false claimer before we lynched the person they claimed against - or do I just think that way because I am a target and not a claimant?

[Abstract Actuary]

If Cop A is guilty, we lynch the suspect Cop A had a guilty on. If that suspect is guilty, the game should be over (but if not, we can try to guess who the 4th scum is). If that suspect is innocent, we lynch Cop B.

Do you mean we lynch the suspect Cop B had a guilty on?

[Abstract Actuary]

If Cop A is guilty, we lynch the suspect Cop A had a guilty on. If that suspect is guilty, the game should be over (but if not, we can try to guess who the 4th scum is). If that suspect is innocent, we lynch Cop B.

Do you mean we lynch the suspect Cop B had a guilty on?

Let me give a more specific example -- it should help.

Let's say we lynch Setael first. If she is guilty, then I think there are one of two cases:

(1) CKD is innocent, so Jerub is guilty
(2) CKD is guilty too (double false claim)

In either of these two cases, we should be able to lynch Jerub and CKD in either order to win (assuming we do not have a 4-person mafia group). It is a little safer to lynch Jerub first, since I think the case that both Setael and CKD are scum is less likely.

I think either I am misunderstanding you or else you didn't understand my question.

I think you mean we lynch Cop A. If we get a guilty we lynch the target of Cop

--B--

.

In your original post you said the target of Cop A, which makes slightly less sense to me.

I am on board with the plan and obviously I prefer a Setael lynch, since I know she is lying.

[Abstract Actuary]

If we have a 4-person mafia team, it is possible we have 3 scum in the set, but it would mean that both cops are guilty, and one of them has a "guilty" on the third scum. This is an incredibly ingenious plan, and if the scum have pulled this off, they are extremely likely to win.

I disagree, there could be 3 scum in the set with 1 guilty cop (who has a guilty on his scumbuddy, to save him in the long run) and an innocent cop with a real guilty. I'm not exactly sure why I'm pointing it out, since this theory would require me to be guilty, which I know is not true.

The bottom line is that if we have a two person mafia remaining we basically can't lose. If we have a 3 person mafia remaining it will be hard to win, but I like your plan to try to combat it as I know if there are 3 guilty people in the list then your plan will get them (if we start with a Setael lynch).


I think to proceed we just need to hear from Sudo_Nym and Oman. It should be pretty obvious who the 4 of us in question want to vote for.

[Abstract Actuary]

Good point, AA.

About the 4 person mafia theory:

AA, Jerub, CKD, and Setael cannot all be mafia, or the game would be over now. Therefore, at least one of them is not.

Plus, I know that I am innocent, so AA, Jerub, CKD, and Setael cannot all be innocent.

AA, Jerub, and CKD all have votes on them now (Setael is voting AA, Jerub is voting CKD, and CKD is voting Jerub), and those votes have been there for at least 24 hours.

If we have a 4 person mafia team and AA, Jerub, or CKD are townie, the game should probably be over by now (unless Sudo is the third mafia and hasn't checked the thread -- I doubt this, as if the mafia knew we were in LYLO and they were setting up a fakeclaim, then Sudo should have been put on notice to be ready to pounce if anyone bit on the mafia fakeclaim).

If Sudo posts and the scum don't immediately pile on, the only way there can be a 4 person mafia team is if Setael is innocent. Hmmm.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see why there can't be 3 mafia remaining, yet not all included in the big 4. For instance, why can't it be Setael, jerubbaal and Oman? Not that I think this is the case, simply trying to show that not all the possibilities are contained in what you are considering.

Also, I like trying to decipher things based on if people got hammered or not in a LYLO situation, but I don't think you can draw any conclusion from the votes that are on the table. If we do have 3 scum remaining, in order for them to be able to hammer we need to have a vote from 1 innocent person to another innocent person. None of the three votes in question can be of that type, so there is no mafia hammer possible at this point - so no conclusions could be drawn.

[Abstract Actuary]

I agree that we should go with Jitsu's original plan with maybe a slight twist (I think this is curiouskarmadog's alternate plan)

Lynch a cop (call him cop A).

If guilty, lynch target B

If innocent, lynch target A followed by cop B.

We are really making this way more complicated than we need to be. We all agree there are almost for sure only 2 more scum, which means we know that they are either Setael+jerubbaal or curiouskarmadog+Abstract Actuary. We need two mislynches to lose and that can't happen with any of these plans.

We are running around in circles. And we are still waiting to here from Oman and Sudo_Nym.

Mod, can we get prods?

[Abstract Actuary]

Vote: Setael

[Abstract Actuary]

I hate the idea that individual players will try to appear less pro-town in order to try to survive longer. It's just selfish bad town strategy. Everyone should try to play every game (that they are vanilla) as pro-town as possible. The only argument I can see to the contrary is to hide the town power roles better, but the town power roles could follow suit and they wouldn't be at any additional risk.