Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Mr. Flay]

I wanted to point it out because I thought it was odd. Others can correct me if they feel differently, but I thought Mr. Flay was rather low on the suspect list coming into this day. So he had almost no negative attention before today and now he is our top suspect - but it isn't for anything he did on previous days, it is for how he acted today.

Indeed, most if not all of the 'case' on me has come from today, so I want those reasons clear if the group does decide to lynch me.

I don't think your characterization of me "putting the spotlight on anyone else" is accurate. My suspicions have been all over the map, true, but I think I've given reasons every time I've switched. Right now I think the Adel/jerrubaal/Setael/Flay thing is distracting if allowed to continue, so one of us should probably be the lynch for today. I'm willing to have it be Adel (obviously I would prefer it not be me, but that would at least be instructive IF people have to state their reasons for lynching me beforehand). I honestly don't think my play has been so bad that it warrants the suspicion I've gotten today, so I naturally think there's scum gunning for my head.

[Jitsu]

I'd like to hear Oman's answer to AA's question in 1066.

As for the waffling, I think people are just hedging their bets. I don't think that's unreasonable, IMO. The case against Flay is decent enough, but it's not airtight by any means.

@Flay:
What is your opinion on Setael? I'd also like for you to respond to Adel's question to you about Setael in 1069. If you think Adel is scum, can you list your points against her?

[Mr. Flay]

I do think Adel is ballsy enough to do this as scum (drop Korlash like a bad habit, and peg onto me as "certain scum"), and I cannot continue to excuse her bad play as being purely based in her tendency to crystallize around a specific, misguided theory. Whether or not she's scum (and someone will likely leap on this statement), the unwillingness to ever consider moving her vote for the rest of today is anti-town, and I am willing to punish that. But at this point, I do think she's more than 50% likely to be scum. In that same category presently are jeruubaal and Abstract Actuary (barely). I can give my pro-town list too, but I think I'd rather wait on that until I'm closer to a lynch, to avoid signing anyone's death warrant tonight.

The fact that jerubbaal gives her a pass for this and leaps on the bandwagon is scummy as hell, but for right now Adel is the better wagon. I will gladly switch if that wagon grows larger than hers, but on the other hand that will not dispel the Adel-Flay feud, which will likely continue to be distracting tomorrow if we're still alive, and has continued since my arrival in this game, bizarrely. I have to wonder if Adel-scum thought she could run the table on the relatively new players here (something I said before mostly in jest).

Thanks for the prod about her question, though.

@Flay: What are the chances that Setael is scum, attacking your attackers as a subtle way of budding up to you? How scummy do you think she is?

Looking over some of the games Setael has played in, I think she's a good enough player to do that. However her defense of me has been awfully consistent and intense in the face of continued pressure not to pair up with me. I'm not sure she's naive enough to hitch her wagon to me so completely, since I'm damaged goods at this point. I'm more inclined to ascribe her motivations to defending against crappy wagons and poor logic at this point, though I'd revisit that later in the game if need be.

[Mr. Flay]

Agh, I reordered that post midway: in "the fact that jerubbaal gives her a pass on

this

", "this" refers to Adel's ceaseless and largely baseless attacks on me (remember, she started this crap before my so-called lousy ability to defend myself became so apparent).

[Sudo_Nym]

First of all, you get such a limited reaction after nine days is that I've been gone for nine days; my own Christmas plans didn't leave a lot of time to analyze in depth.

My main concern is tone. During the whole conversation with Adel, you seemed more frantic; like you were afraid of unraveling. The doubt comes because such things are hardly reliable through text. I also don't particularly like your interactions with Setael.

On the other side of the coin, I don't like the whole Adel/Jerubbeal thing either, but I believe that can be explained more easily than Flay/Setael.

What really gets me turned around is that I like Flay/Setael as a pair, but I don't especcially like Setael/Korlash or Flay/Korlash. There aren't any players I suspect that I believe match up particularly well with Korlash as a partner. Setael seems most likely under the bussing argument, but I still don't like it much.

I haven't voted for Flay because I don't believe he's the best lynch. Though I believe him more likely than Adel, I think a Setael lynch would tell us more about the game.

[Jitsu]

I haven't voted for Flay because I don't believe he's the best lynch. Though I believe him more likely than Adel, I think a Setael lynch would tell us more about the game.

Very interesting.

It sounds like you've already thought this through, at least in terms of who is the best lynch. So I'll ask the questions that're begging to be asked here: What does a Setael lynch tell us? Why is a Setael lynch better than Adel or Flay, in terms of information?

[Oman]

Oman, is your vote on Adel only because you think the likely scum group is Korlash, Adel and jerubbaal? Based on the fact that Adel pushed Korlash hard since he came in and then named jerubbaal as his likely partner and then has since backed off of that accusation?

Ya, mostly.

I think Adel has just done a lot of work and a lot of talking without saying anything. Also note that I feel that in Adel's character (huge meta here), she would gladly sac a scumbuddy straight up.

[Abstract Actuary]

Oman, is your vote on Adel only because you think the likely scum group is Korlash, Adel and jerubbaal? Based on the fact that Adel pushed Korlash hard since he came in and then named jerubbaal as his likely partner and then has since backed off of that accusation?

Ya, mostly.

I think this argument is extremely weak.

Assumption: Adel, Korlash and jerubbaal are the scum team.

This means that Adel came into the game and bussed Korlash as hard and as blindly as I've ever seen anyone be bussed. While doing so he named his other scum buddy as the likely scum partner - knowing that Korlash would come up scum and afterwards people would definitely come back to that statement. And then when Korlash is lynched and comes up scum and eventually people come back to that statement, now he decides to back off a little bit.

Why would he do this?

If he wouldn't want to bus both partners he would have never said jerubbaal was the likely partner the day he came in. If he did want to bus both partners he would have bussed jerubbaal just as hard as Korlash, saying "see, I know what I'm talking about." The situation that you propose requires Adel to want to bus both partners at the start and then for some reason change his mind, which he would know would call him into question - despite the fact that nothing changed for him (he knew Korlash would come up scum). I just don't see this scenario as likely at all.

I'm not saying Adel isn't scum and I'm not saying jerubbaal isn't scum, but I don't think they're both scum.

Also, I don't think Adel is scum. He came in and did his best to bus Korlash - and he eventually got his wish. Now, after that happens he probably has a pretty good opportunity to combine that with a jerubbaal lynch. If jerubbaal is town he can lead to this townie lynch and still say, "well I was right on Korlash, I guess the link to jerubbaal was off, but still 1/2 is pretty good." and come out still looking pretty clean. If jerubbaal is scum, and he decided to double bus day 1, he would have went through with it and come out looking incredibly clean after leading to two straight scum lynches.

Instead, Adel looked elsewhere. I think Adel is town.

I think Adel has just done a lot of work and a lot of talking without saying anything. Also note that I feel that in Adel's character (huge meta here), she would gladly sac a scumbuddy straight up.

Independent of this game, I agree 100%.

[Oman]

This is the part of it I don't like.

You say Adel is town because she wouldn't bussed Korlash and names Jerrubaal and doesn't actually go after Jer. Whereas I say she is scum for those very reasons.

How ironic.

[Abstract Actuary]

This is the part of it I don't like.

You say Adel is town because she wouldn't bussed Korlash and names Jerrubaal and doesn't actually go after Jer. Whereas I say she is scum for those very reasons.

How ironic.

I think if the three of them were all scum, he would have either never named jerubbaal or else named him and then went after him just as hard. Nothing in between.

Do you think he would have planned to name the other scum partner and then back off of that? Or do you think that he changed his mind?

[Oman]

I think she felt she could get away with it. Naming the other partner helps to cemet the "townie scumhunting skills".

Do you think he would have planned to name the other scum partner and then back off of that? Or do you think that he changed his mind?

I think she thought she could name D2 and avoid it D3 with noncomittal references.

[NabakovNabakov]

Vote Count as of Post 1085

Vote Count as of Post 1063

Vote Count as of Post 1047

Abstract Actuary (1):

Setael

Mr. Flay(3):

Adel, Jitsu, jerubbaal

Adel(2):

Oman, Mr. Flay

Not Voting (3):

Sudo_Nym, Abstract Actuary, curiouskarmadog

9 alive, 5 will lynch.

Let's get lynchin' people. The spectators are becoming bored.

[Setael]

I hear and will obey.

I'm bothered by Adel's bullheadedness and agree with this:

the unwillingness to ever consider moving her vote for the rest of today is anti-town

I'm not willing to vote Flay for reasons I've already stated, so my vote goes to Adel.

unvote; vote: Adel

[curiouskarmadog]

I have not voted because I am not certian...or really even leaning one way or the other on the two vote leaders.

I truly sit upon this fence as will my vote for now.

[Jitsu]

So, it comes down to this. Flay and Adel are both at three votes, though Flay got there first, so he is the potential deadline lynch at the moment.

Another vote either way will put one of them at L-1 and force a claim.

Flay has been at L-2 for a long time now. That's very interesting.

I think I need to think through the scenarios some more.


@Sudo: I still want to hear why you think Setael is a better lynch than Adel or Flay and what you expect to learn from it compared to an Adel or Flay lynch.

[Adel]

This has been a wonderful day. I am eager for it to end.

I little bit of hard reading during the night phase, and we should have an easy win. No lurkers here, anymore. The rest of the days should go pretty quick after this one.

[Sudo_Nym]

I still want to hear why you think Setael is a better lynch than Adel or Flay and what you expect to learn from it compared to an Adel or Flay lynch.

Mainly, I think Flay and Adel will be more useful than Setael on the next day. If Setael comes up scum, we can proceed from there with Flay. If he's town, I'd rather have Flay alive for tomorrow.

However, I'm not too eager to vote for him, mainly because I don't want to screw up the deadline. Should it come to that, I'd rather lynch Flay than Adel.

[NabakovNabakov]

Vote Count as of Post 1091

Mr. Flay(3):

Adel, Jitsu, jerubbaal

Adel(3):

Oman, Mr. Flay, Setael

Not Voting (3):

Sudo_Nym, Abstract Actuary, curiouskarmadog

9 alive, 5 will lynch.

[Oman]

Sudo, is there any reason you are not voting for Setael?

[Sudo_Nym]

Mainly, I don't want to screw up the deadline lynch. I'm not sure if that's possible, since it would require a fairly construed series of events. However, I'll formalize it, if you want.

Vote: Setael

[Adel]

I love how me being right about Korlash is the cornerstone of every case against me.

There is some saying about buildings with weak foundations that applies here.

[Oman]

Glass houses Adel.

[curiouskarmadog]

Mainly, I don't want to screw up the deadline lynch. I'm not sure if that's possible, since it would require a fairly construed series of events. However, I'll formalize it, if you want.

Vote: Setael

how does you voting for Setael screw up the dead line lynch when you werent voting anyone to begin with?

[Oman]

Science?

[Sudo_Nym]

how does you voting for Setael screw up the dead line lynch when you werent voting anyone to begin with?

Well, it's silly, really; so much so that I hesitate to talk about it. However, it lets Setael get up to three votes, which, if given the right series of unvotes and other events on the part of other players, could drop us below the threshold for a deadline lynch. Like I said, it is incredibly unlikely, but it becomes possible. Probably wasn't even worth mentioning, now that I've actually analyzed the thing.