Mini 520 - Triumvirate Mafia - ABANDONED
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somestrangeflea Mafia Scum
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General thoughts on the setup...
Define "late game", please. I think that counterclaims are a fairly safe things once at least 3 Triums have been claimed but I'm not sure...YuanTi wrote:Yep, going to be hard.
No counterclaims until the late game will be a good policy here.
This game is going to be loaded with WIFOM:
1. If a Triumvirate truthfully claims. The scum could kill them, removing one ability, which puts the scum in a better position. The scum could also leave them alive, hoping to get them lynched under the "well, they must be scum, because if they weren't, they'd be dead" theory, and get rid of all the town's abilities.
2. The safest claim for scum is Triumvirate, as the town will naturally be hesitant to lynch a Trium claimer. However, surely that means that anyone who claims Vanilla Towniemustbe a Vanilla Townie. But then, the Mafia will claim Vanilla, won't they? And so on...
In other news, I'm pleased because the above things are actually meet the proper definition of WIFOM, rather than the fake one a lot of people seem to attach to any form of 2-choice situation...
We also must remember that the scum can get the Triumvirate abilities, which wastes them, or, in the case of the Roleblocker power, can actually hinder the town.
Also, we have to evaluate the risk of putting a player at -1...
If that player is Triumvirate, could the Mafia be willing to out one of themselves as scum to quicklynch them? Perhaps a -2 claim is safer?
Not too sure what the best way to play is, but I think that a consistent plan will work well, and I think that we need to spend some time trying to come up with one.-
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somestrangeflea Mafia Scum
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Did you not see my last post...?spurgistan wrote:If we lynch normal town today (which is the most likely result, as they should be the only ones not to claim trium)
No-lynch doesn't seem like a bad idea.
Unvote, Vote: No-Lynch
Investigation results should be claimedinstantlytomorrow. Anyone else who got powers should claim what they got, but not who they targetted. Thoughts..?-
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Your logic is flawed. By your logic, if all Mafia are going to claim Trium, then all Vanilla claimers are confirmed town. This is of course, false.spurgistan wrote:@Elmo: that's why I think a no-lynch might actually make sense here. Seeing as how the scum will automatically claim triumvirate, we're going to lynch a townie (who presumably wouldn't claim triumvirate,
Also, false. Townies, the Trium and the Mafia can all be given the powers.spurgistan wrote:and these townies are the town's potential power roles, so by lynching town, I feel like we're lynching power roles.
/agree.spurgistan wrote:And yes, we should claim investigations / protections tomorrow.
I will also say that I have been swayed enough by popular opinion toUnvote: No Lynch.-
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But if all the Mafia claim Trium, then none of the Mafia will claim Vanilla. If this is true, why would we ever want lynch Vanilla townies?spurgistan wrote:I'm just wondering why anybody would claim vanilla, given that they could conveniently claim an unlynchable role. Vanilla claimers are not confirmed town, but no WIFOM, I couldn't understand scum under duress claiming vanilla when those are the only players we can safely lynch.
I'm going to give aFomS: spurgistan, because I feel that he's playing this game from a "defend the Triums" perspective, rather than the "kill the scums" stance which we should have...
Care to explain how you're arriving at this conclusion? You seem to be assuming that players can only be given the Cop power once per game...Elmo wrote:If the mafia get a cop results and don't claim it, then we know someone has not claimed. This narrows the field down over time, because the number of people who have not claimed results decreases.-
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I assume that the Mafia will be more informed than we are in a given situation, but I can understand that a number of people would want to keep the "Ideal scum plan" secret from the scum.Elmo wrote:Should I post a full working out so far? It lets the scum know what the best moves are, but it also helps us understand what may be about to happen.
If I get consent from a large number of people, I shall post my thoughts on the massclaim and its possible effects, but until then, I shall remain tightlipped.-
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Let x=the number of people who claim Triumvirate.
3<=x<=6
The number of scum in this group is x-3.
Let y=the number of people who claim Vanilla.
6<=y<=9
The number of scum in this group is y-6.
And, of course, overall, x+y=12.
Essentially, once we massclaim, we will split the town into 2 groups, within which, we will know exactly how many scum there are, at the expense of immediately letting the scum know who the Trium are.
I'm not too good with the numbers, so someone else will have to tell me if this tradeoff is good for the town or not...
IIRC, earlier, someone asked (or at least, seemed to wonder) "Why would the Mafia want to claim Townie rather than Trium?"
The Mafia will want to kill off the Triumvirate as quickly as possible in order to get rid of the power which the town has. However, if Mafia members have claimed Triumvirate, then, as more and more Triumvirate are killed, the higher and the higher the percentage of scum in that group grows.
IfanyMafia claim Triumvirate, they will be forced to either leave one legit Trium alive, or expose themselves as a scum.
That being said, ifnoscum claim Triumvirate, Triums will become confirmed innocent, and it will take the Mafia aminimumof three nights to eliminate them, which, with a Doc with 1 in 3 success odds, a Cop with 1 in 2 success odds, and an RB with 1 in 6 success odds, should be quite difficult...
Again, is this a good tradeoff for the Mafia? Do we as a Town want to risk it?
The simple answer is "I don't know", but I'm pretty sure someone will...-
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A ciphered massclaim is unethical as it essentially takes away the one possible way a scum can work around a massclaim - being able to workaroundthe other claims.
To be short, a ciphered massclaim is unethical as it can break almosteverysetup, and, to be honest, it's a pretty cheap way to get a town win.-
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Scum getting lynched = win, town getting lynched = lose, regardless of how long it takes.FaerieLord wrote:No it is different because we get instead of wasting weeks on them one by one we get them all together and we can focus on less people.
The path is irrelevant, only the destination.
Also, your use of word "different" rather than "better" seems out of place. Not sure what is means yet, but it's noted for now.-
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Well done.FaerieLord wrote:3/7 is approx 1/2.
You can't actually get a group of 7 with 3 scum in it, though, so that statistic doesn't actually matter.
You can have...
Without massclaim:
3/12 (25%)
With massclaim:
3/6 (50%) & 0/6 (0%)Best case scenario. 6 confirmed innocents. Triumvirate exposure virtually irrelevant (?)
2/5 (40%) & 1/7 (~14%)Worst case scenario. "Needle-in-a-haystack" situation.
1/4 (25%) & 2/8 (25%)Worse than without massclaim due to exposed Triumvirates.
0/3 (0%) & 3/9 (~33%)Good scenario. 3 confirmed innocents, but all Triumvirates.
The fact that the scum can control which of the above situations we end up with means that the massclaim is essentially useless, if not weakening for the town.-
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How?Elmo wrote:Mastermind of Sin wrote:He's just continually repeating the same words over and over, trying to browbeat us, through repetition, into agreeing. Can we please lynch him now?
Speaking of doing a 180...Mastermind of Sin wrote:I'm going to think on that one, because I need to figure out what I think a town player in that situation would have done
Not really a 180, since, in the second post, MoS hasn't actually stated any change in his own thoughts, only that he's thinking about how likely it is that a Townie reaction to the situation would ideally be.
That being said, MoS does seem awfully sure in his first post. Not really a 180 though, more of a 135, IMO...
You're being suspected for backpedalling, not through the act itself, but because of the time you chose to do it (ie, under the threat of a lynch).FaerieLord wrote:Look at it this way. If I pushed the case, I'd be lynch. I backpedaled. Will I still be lynched? Looks like a lose / lose situation :/-
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Elmo's big post starts off well in terms of analysis, but seems to drop off in the second half into the realms of general game theory.
From what I can see, these two paragraphs are essentially saying the same thing. It seems a bit "filler"-ish, TBH...Elmo wrote:Anyway: everyone's a little bored, the day is dragging on, and there's a wagon on someone who's not amazingly scummy, but no-one's going to complain if you lynch him, and no-one seems to be motivated to go and find anything else (I think two or three votes on FL are simply "it's the only wagon going") rather than making the easy vote. There's an element of groupthink, in that no-one seems prepared to stand out of the crowd when everyone's happy to lynch FL; we'd be in significantly better shape if more people did what Miztif is doing, throwing your vote onto something that you think looks scummy rather than shrugging your shoulders and voting the safe option that no-one will blame you for. (In that vein, it's no secret that I would love a MoS wagon, but I'll settle for any kind of pro-active behaviour out of this town at the moment.)
It's a fairly classic type of bad wagon; there's a great description I read somewhere in (I think) Mafia Discussion that I can't find, but in general, when people are bored, tired of arguing without results, approaching a deadline, whatever, a favourite mafia play is to have a nice, convenient, almost tempting bandwagon that anyone can hop onto without any fuss. On a townie, of course, but it's all too easy not to care deeply because everyone just wants something to happen and get the day over; I know I've been fairly bored with this game for a while now. But I really hate this kind of thing; everyone ends up looking dumbly at each other on day 2, wondering what to do next. This is not how games are won.-
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Not much. It's basically a combination of a semantics argument and OOT information, which isn't really relevant.Elmo wrote:Miztif, spurgistan, somestrangeflea, Cephrir: What do you think of the MoS - flyinghawk thing?
The game thread is the game. Other stuff isn't.
Then explain the reasoning behind your suspicions.Thin_Man wrote:I don't explain the reasons behind my votes, sorry.
LOLLOOPHOLE.
Kinda. It seems as though he's laying a foundation so that, if he falls under suspicion later, he can say "Look howMiztef wrote:@SSF: What are you trying to get at with elmo's post? Do you find putting that filler in scummy?muchI helped the town here!" It's kind of a stretch, but you have to evaluate all the evidence...
Welcome Mizzy! You've made a possible suggestion for a nickname for Miztef completely pointless, just by existing! Congratulations!-
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Mainly the massclaim fiasco, but I didn't feel that was enough to warrant a vote alone.Elmo wrote:somestrangeflea: Explain your FaerieLord vote?
Then the game died, so I placed a vote to get it moving.
Now the game is less dead,unvote.
Too Townie is when a player attributes a number of pro-town actions to player, before using this as "evidence" of that players scumminess.Elmo wrote:
Also, please explain how this is not a variant of Too Townie?somestrangeflea wrote:
Kinda. It seems as though he's laying a foundation so that, if he falls under suspicion later, he can say "Look howMiztef wrote:@SSF: What are you trying to get at with elmo's post? Do you find putting that filler in scummy?muchI helped the town here!" It's kind of a stretch, but you have to evaluate all the evidence...
What I said isn't a variant of Too Townie because I don't think that laying a fallback for yourself is a pro-town action.
YESMoS wrote:Phate, the topic of your rant is also known as "extreme paranoia".
I agree with MoS simply because I've played a game with someone who was, quite frankly, an ass, and didn't enjoy it. Whilst we are, indeed, a blood thirsty lynch mob, there's no need to be in characterall the time.-
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a) Continuing to support a massclaim beyond a point where I felt it was universally proven to be a bad idea.Elmo wrote:
a) More detail. "the massclaim fiasco" is not an explanation.somestrangeflea wrote:Mainly the massclaim fiasco, but I didn't feel that was enough to warrant a vote alone.
Then the game died, so I placed a vote to get it moving.
b) Placing a vote on someone merely "to get the game moving" that takes them to -1 is unacceptable, yaus?
b) Not when my idea of "getting the game moving" consists mainly of getting it out of Day 1.21 PAGES.
I did. That was the start of this argument. I said that I thought that a post of yours had far too many words in comparison to what you were actually saying. I felt that this action wasElmo wrote:somestrangeflea wrote:Kinda. It seems as though he's laying a foundation so that, if he falls under suspicion later, he can say "Look howmuchI helped the town here!"
Last time I checked, helping the town was a pro-town action. So either I'm deliberately trying to look like I'm helping while actually not, or I'm helping the town. If I'm not helping the town, point it out.somestrangeflea wrote:Too Townie is when a player attributes a number of pro-town actions to player, before using this as "evidence" of that players scumminess. What I said isn't a variant of Too Townie because I don't think that laying a fallback for yourself is a pro-town action.nothelpful for the town.
However, because of the high amount of words you'd written, I felt that you could attempt to pass this off as a large, content-loaded post. That is, you could try to make it look like you were helping while actually not.
BecauseRishi wrote:I'm curious for those of you who are still voting for me, why?21 PAGES.-
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I dislike it when games get over 20 pages... 10 pages seems fair for a Mini day. 15 pages is a bit dragging. My views aren't related to this game, it's justMizzy wrote:SSF:Patience is obviously not one of your virtues. Why the overwhelming need for night, hmm? Mafia games take a long time on these forums. 21 pages never hurt anyone, cripes..21 PAGES-
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Oh no, I don't want it to be too short either, I want it to beMizzy wrote:
And this is one of the hardest plots for a mini theme that I have seen. We have to be extremely careful, and we still don't have a plan for what happens when a mafia we find inevitably screams power role. This is not going to be a fast or an easy or a short game.somestrangeflea wrote:
I dislike it when games get over 20 pages... 10 pages seems fair for a Mini day. 15 pages is a bit dragging. My views aren't related to this game, it's justMizzy wrote:SSF:Patience is obviously not one of your virtues. Why the overwhelming need for night, hmm? Mafia games take a long time on these forums. 21 pages never hurt anyone, cripes..21 PAGESjust right!
Mod: Can we get prods on everyone who isn't me, Mizzy or Rishi?-
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Two months ago, Day 1 was running longer than I would like. Now, it's length actually irritates me.TrustGossip wrote:Then there is your anxiety to finish Day One because it's running longer than you would like.
People have to stop assuming that the run up to a scum lynch will result in:Mizzy wrote:The only thing that bothers me about the difficulty of the set-up is the inevitable power claims the scum will make when we do find one, which means we won't be able to lynch them confidently by any stretch of the imagination.
Lynch-1 => Triumvirate Claim => Instant vote removal.
The point is this. If we want to make progress in this game, we're going to have to take the big risk eventually.
Weigh up the likelihood of the lynchee being scum against the likelihood of him telling the truth, and either lynch them or not according to the results. Simple.Mizzy wrote:What do YOU propose we do if a lynchee screams power role?
In other words:
this.TrustGossip wrote:Overthinking the "what if" scenario and wringing your hands over it is obsfucating the matter at hand.
No, I'm voting for him because Condorcet results don't generate their own votes. In taking part in the vote, I agreed that I would support the resulting lynch. I call it honour.TrustGossip wrote:There is also the matter of your vote against MoS supported by a sense of consensus logic "I'm going to vote for him because the general sentiment is that he's scum."-
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There's a very big difference between proxying and what's going on here.MoS wrote:I came upon this problem in another game, where people tried to give their votes to other people because they were protown.
You were top of the list. You just happened to be there along with 8 other people.MoS wrote:I come up town you can say you were just going along with the majority and point out that you had me somewhere in the middle of your list.
It had been two days since anyone voted. I found it difficult to imagine that anyone else would. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.Mizzy wrote:Voting for someone before all the vote strings were in, and voting without discussion really bothers me. It also bothers me that he makes his actions out to be honorable. Voting an unconfirmed "winner" without talk first and giving the impression he thought we would all do the same...grr. I don't like it.
Is it just me, or is there something inherently flawed with wanting the lynch of your #2 lynch candidate?Mizzy wrote:Well, we DO need a lynch, and he IS my #2.-
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Oh, you were referring to #2 on your vote list. I thought you meant just #2 in general...Mizzy wrote:
No, I think that's just you, especially since my number one candidate was, if you look at my old vote chain, not someone I thought was scum. There's more than one scum in the game, you know, so why should having a second choice be a bad thing?somestrangeflea wrote:
Is it just me, or is there something inherently flawed with wanting the lynch of your #2 lynch candidate?Mizzy wrote:Well, we DO need a lynch, and he IS my #2.
If I proxy my vote onto someone else, I think that person is town. Going along with the condorcet results is essentially me proxying my vote to the entire town, which is guaranteed to have three scum manipulating it and is therefore... worse.Mastermind of Sin wrote:No, there isn't, and you know it. The fundamental problem with both situations is divestment of responsibility. They're a lot more similar than you're making them out to be.
Ohkay I think you win.
Unafraid?Mastermind of Sin wrote:So why does your suspicion list have 8 people tied for first? Unafraid to single anyone out on your own?
Unable.-
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Chapter 1 - How Not to Roll a Dice
The MoS-SirT argument isn't showing any tells either way, just a lot of anger...
Something that did stand out though:
I've personally never liked "someone else can do it" posts. They're *ahem* a divestment of responsiblity... I feel compelled to agree with Phate regarding it.Mastermind of Sin wrote:Yuan, if you want some discussion, look at the people who massively unvoted, saying "the random stage is over". What a load of bullshit. I'd pursue it, but I'm lazy and have been arguing with SirT. Someone else can do it.
Chapter 2 - LOLWTFn00b
Correct me if I'm wrong, but are we not looking to see ifPhate wrote:I'm saying that because you're new, there is a possibility that you'll let something slip if you are scum, and I'm noting what I find slightly odd behaviour in the attempt to find a connection.allplayers let stuff slip? Surely that's why we're all here? To yell at each other and get progressively more violent until someone says something which lots of people think means "I'm probably scum", or means that in the context of the rest of the game.
Chapter 3 - Vote: No Lynch
So, Too Townie then?Miztef wrote:If Phate = mafia, then spur and/or SSF could be trying to get heat off of him, in a townie looking way.
"I do not believe that Elmo's argument is a good one against me. Moving on..."Miztef wrote:For someone that just made a massive speech, that seems very odd. I will accept it for now and continue playing as normal though.
Chapter 4 - I Don't Know What to Title This
[s]Spurgistan[/s] TrustGossip wrote:Seeing as how the scum will automatically claim triumvirate, we're going to lynch a townie (who presumably wouldn't claim triumvirate, and these townies are the town's potential power roles, so by lynching town, I feel like we're lynching power roles. And yes, we should claim investigations / protections tomorrow.
There's something about these posts which seems to say "I'm scum, and have already thought about my strategy."[s]Spurgistan[/s] TrustGossip wrote:I'm just wondering why anybody would claim vanilla, given that they could conveniently claim an unlynchable role. Vanilla claimers are not confirmed town, but no WIFOM, I couldn't understand scum under duress claiming vanilla when those are the only players we can safely lynch.
Chapter 5 - Claims for the Masses
Basically, out of the whole thing:
I agree with MoS.MoS wrote:Because only scum could possibly think this was a good plan at this point. The logic has been proven that the town has a better chance of winning if we do NOT mass claim. You are trying to brush past these proven statistics and play towards some retarded sense of pride about the game. You're presumptuous and likey scum as well.
I find it interesting that a fair proportion of the town was willing to lynch FL (now Rishi) based on the massclaim fiasco (he got to -1), but we're still on Day 1... Why is this?
MoS managed to get us off FL, and onto Elmo, that's why. And once the Elmo wagon died, the FL wagon never picked up again...
Phate, I'd like to introduce you to the head of a nail. He's been going around saying he slept with your mum, but you've clearly dealt with that problem.Phate wrote:Why the new wagon, MoS?
In conclusion, a summary of my thoughts of the first 20 pages:
Very long.
Spurgistan and Miztef stand out as potentially scummy, as does Phate to a lesser extent.
If Rishi is scum, so's MoS, and vice-versa.-
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Less than when you don't.TrustGossip wrote:Exactly how relevant is your analysis of Spurgistan if you triangulate it with my play so far, flea?
No.MoS wrote:Flea: so you think I'm scum because the FL wagon died when I went after Elmo? You do realize that I also started the FL wagon, right?
Although it really depends on your definition of the term "started", I would say that Phate or spurgistan started the wagon.-
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somestrangeflea Mafia Scum
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somestrangeflea Mafia Scum
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*smacksTrustGossip wrote:
Are you absolutely sure of this? I seem to recall Miztef being the progenitor of the idea. I'm pretty wiped from Chinese New Years so I don't really have the energy to file through and find the exact post, but I seem to recall that he was the one who suggested it.Elmo wrote:He didn't strongly advocate the mass claim, he just agreed with it when it was brought up
If I'm wrong smack me with a rolled up newspaper.
The first post which related to massclaiming.FaerieLord wrote:Actually now that I'm looking at it, I support a mass claim.
Look at it this way, people that claim vanilla won't be scared of being lynched, which decreases the possibility that mafia claim vanilla. If during the night we see triumvates being killed, we'll find it easier to deduct. Mean while during the day we lynch those that claim vanilla. We will lose townies, but for the mafia its a lose / lose scenario.
Intriguing that he said "I agree with..." when nobody had actually initially suggested it.
Miztef was the last person (other than FL) to be convinced that it was abadidea, so maybe that's where your confusion is.
Explain why this change happened.Miztef wrote: Also, I realize I said claims were irrelevant, but that only applied to my opinion, which is actually nowchanged a biton that subject.
Keffed.Mizzy wrote:I told you guys...however, I don't believe him either because that was the most insincere claim I have ever seen. "Anyway, since I'm near lynch, I'm gonna claim triumvirate."? What the hell.-
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somestrangeflea Mafia Scum
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somestrangeflea Mafia Scum
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Miztef blocked Cephrir.
Cephrir investigated Miztef.
MoS protected Miztef.
Scums killed Mizzy.
Today's massclaim stats:
Compared to yesterday's numbers:Without massclaim:
3/10 (30%)
With massclaim:
3/6 (50%) & 0/4 (0%)
2/5 (40%) & 1/5 (20%)
1/4 (25%) & 2/6 (~33%)
0/3 (0%) & 3/7 (~43%)
Simply due to their being less people alive, the groups have become smaller, and thus massclaiming becomes more viable. The worst case scenario when massclaiming (the second) is 10% easier one direction, and 10% harder the other than not massclaiming. Thus, massclaiming now will likely cause a game situation, which is, in terms of expected return for the town, exactly the same, but more swingy.Without massclaim:
3/12 (25%)
With massclaim:
3/6 (50%) & 0/6 (0%)
2/5 (40%) & 1/7 (~14%)
1/4 (25%) & 2/8 (25%)
0/3 (0%) & 3/9 (~33%)
I personally like stability, so, currently, I don't want a massclaim, but wanted to throw the idea back out there, since it's no longer a completely bad thing.-
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somestrangeflea Mafia Scum
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