DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Untrod Tripod]

I swear mastina just sticks names in an rng and calls it a readslist

[Andrius]

Mod: if the aircraft carrier blocked the holder of a submarine, would the submarine still be able to launch the next day?

The ACC would prevent the Sub from launching, as it blocks all nuclear launches the following day.

[GreyICE]

I'm still not sold on Vax town. Number 2 I'd put as LLD.

Not sold on you being town either Mastina, recall or no recall.

[Cheetory6]

I think I need to stop playing mafia.

[mastina]

Not sold on you being town either Mastina, recall or no recall.

There's a nuke headed my way.
I just threw my chances of having that nuke cancelled away, because the CONDITION of the nuke headed my way being canceled was that if Cephrir failed to kill himself (he did), UT would come on and cancel the nuke heading my way, and allow my nuke to hit Cephrir.

I literally sealed my fate by canceling the Ceph nuke. I was going to live if I let it go, because UT was going to cancel the nuke if Ceph didn't kill himself. But now, I have breached my contract. I did not hold up MY end of the bargain. So now I am going to die, period, end of discussion. You know how I know this?

Because it was UT who nuked me. If SpyreX sabotaged UT's nuke, that quite literally would be called a scumclaim on SpyreX's part. Never in a MILLION years would SpyreX dare sabotage UT. So there's absolutely zero chance of a nuke sabotage on me, and I'm the ONLY player being nuked who has that. (SpyreX could have sabotaged me, hiplop, OR Cheetory last night, especially me or hiplop.) And we saw from yesterday that even when UT had EVERY DAMN REASON to recall his nuke on Reck, he did not.

So there's no talking my way out of this.
There is absolutely zero wiggle room. No way of holding sway over UT. No way to convince him to blow the nuke up. There's nobody in this town who COULD convince him. And even if there was! Let's say, for instance. Even if, saaaaay, LLD was able to successfully bargain with him such that if she told him to, he would.

There's no way to convince THAT PERSON I am WORTH saving.
Absolutely none.

So I am dead.
Period.
End. of. discussion.

I have a little over one day until I die, but that nuke is never getting recalled so make no mistake.
I am going to die.

And with that knowledge.
I tell you.
If I were scum the best thing I could possibly do is shut the fuck up and not be talking/helping right now, because as scum my job is to give as little information as humanly possible.

I'm not scum.

Fuck, the fact that I canceled the Cephrir nuke is evidence enough of that. Aside from the fact that I had a deal in which me nuking Cephrir meant UT might cancel his nuke on me (meaning, nuking Ceph = chance of me living, me canceling = no chance of me living), there's the fact that Cephrir isn't scum especially if you think I am scum so why the fuck, as scum being nuked, do I CANCEL the nuke headed towards the fucking town doctor?

I am town.
Period.

I will be flipping town.
Vaxkiller is also going to be flipping town, unless SpyreX sabotaged hiplop's nuke.
So yes. While I am still alive. I am demanding people answer for my inevitable townflip, who they think the scum are.
Wishing for a scumflip won't make one materialize. The SAD lynch should have taught you that.

[Untrod Tripod]

only way mastina cancels that nuke is if the remaining scum are Ceph/mastina

[Cheetory6]

Wishing for a scumflip won't make one materialize. The SAD lynch should have taught you that.

Man fuck right off.
-.-

[Cheetory6]

Like, seriously, fuck off with your shitty egotistical shit.

[mastina]

LLD and Spyrex are my kneejerk scumreads.

I really don't see why Nahdia/you/Vax are out of the pile though.

Like, sure? I flux between thinking there's townie moments from you and Nahdia and to some extent I struggle to imagine Vax being able to come up with all of this for so long.
But that's literally nothing that would make me pull all of you out of the sortpile entirely. That's fucking ridiculous.

To address the bolded: see also my reply to GreyICE. I signed my fate when I launched, then canceled, a nuke on Cephrir. I could have maybe lived if I pandered to people on who to nuke. I could have maybe lived if I chose to keep the nuke going on Cephrir without canceling it. But I made the choice to nuke him because I didn't care about my own life, I knew I was going to be dead sooner rather than later and frankly am surprised it's taken this LONG to get a nuke headed my way. And then I made the choice that I'd rather die and NOT nuke the doctor than live while nuking the fucking town doctor. With only the chance of SpyreX sabotaging me again to stop the missile past a certain point. So I'm out of contention because no fucking duh. I'm flipping town in less than 36 hours. No ifs. No ands. No buts. Just pure, simple, fact. No way to convince UT to call it off. Tell me I'm wrong there. Tell me that I, knowing what I know about UT, think he would EVER back down. Think he would ever back off. Think he would ever recall that nuke. He won't. So I'm dead. Period. And I am telling you, in advance, exactly what you know will happen: I am flipping town.

The only name in there that isn't surefire town is Nahdia. And Nahdia is basically the player I feel least likely to be scum, between a combination of the scum chatter (it doesn't seem to fit), Nahdia's open declaration of role, and Nahdia's content in the game, along with how players have been pushing for Nahdia's death. Nahdia's role is useless to the scum as of today. Additionally: with the radar out of play and down to only two scum members...why would the scum bother killing the cop with Nahdia's role in play? She could just tailor her scumbuddy and hope for an innocent. So it makes no sense that a scumteam with Nahdia's role would actually bother killing GiF, ESPECIALLY when the doctor is in the game.

[SpyreX]

Ok i need some logic spelled out nice and bullet pointed.

What in the christ all of a sudden with this discussion makes cephir town. Where is the night action that miraculously fixes what happened last night.

[Cheetory6]

1 NK N2. Lands on scum.
Only BP or doc could stop the other.

[SpyreX]

Thank you. Giant stupid walls i was missing it.

I need to sit down with an actual computer.

[SpyreX]

mod would a double kill reflect as such at night?

[Andrius]

mod would a double kill reflect as such at night?

Yes.

[SpyreX]

Hmm well i guess my total distaste in cep today is unwarranted.

God and that means mastin town probably too

[GreyICE]

Thank you. Giant stupid walls i was missing it.

I need to sit down with an actual computer.

Not only reason.

Nukebringer did not nuke GIF. If Cephrir is scum doctor than hitting the BP N3 means that Nukebringer would be keenly aware he could nuke GIF and give Cephrir an amazing out to the issue of being the scum doctor while needing to kill the cop. "Oh gee, well I stopped the first, but second nuke went through, too bad amright? Nothing you can do about that."

See therein lies the issue. Nukebringer didn't shoot GIF, so they figured he was still protected.

Battleship: Mobile, hidden in the wide open sea away from population centers, capable of withstanding even the most directed air strikes, and armed with an array of incredibly powerful weapons, a battleship is one of the safest places on the planet. {Each night, you may target a player. Until the next night phase,

the first time

that player would be eliminated, they survive instead. You cannot target yourself.}

[GreyICE]

Hmm well i guess my total distaste in cep today is unwarranted.

God and that means mastin town probably too

This I am much less certain of.

[SpyreX]

Right and the terrorist would have 0 reason at that juncture. And terrorist taking sub doc is drunk.

Pedit. So am i but the truth is thats guaranteed death on not recalling. So god in heaven.

Nadhia scum could be creating gfs.

God i need like two town so we can go mad

[SpyreX]

Ok I'll look at vca tonight hopefully. Can someone step up and help me look at the defenders of ss versus who is alive.

Actually hmm him claiming cop makes me think nad is town cause aim there worth gfmaker is better

[GreyICE]

Hi I'm town and I'm fairly certain Nahdia is town. I mean sure until we see the flip we can't 100% trust the... what, the mafia-clear on Hiplop? I just don't see scum bidding on a role that means they'll get POE nuked then begging to be POE nuked. I mean if the scum took it I'd imagine they'd stick it on a weak member and have them hide the claim as long as possible, not go "I have the godfather creator" right at the start of the first day.

[SpyreX]

Ps I'm fine i think with being nuked. Just after i get everything squared up.

Pedit yes. I think nad town running through it. Im leaking hard on you town and cheet town. I think ut town some too.

What baffles me is we have had no data collection and i don't get it. I want to make sure that's remedied

[Untrod Tripod]

God i need like two town so we can go mad

hi

[mastina]

Vaxkiller [9] -

Ser Arthur Dayne

, SpyreX,

Fate

,

Something_Smart

, Cheetory6, Cephrir,

Spiffeh

,

Accountant, Papa Zito

Ser Arthur Dayne

[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,

Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola

Something_Smart

[2] -

Ircher, GuyInFreezer

Untrod Tripod [1] -

xRECKONERx

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -

mastina

Not Voting [7] - Everyone Else

Vaxkiller [9] -

Ser Arthur Dayne

, SpyreX,

Fate

, Cheetory6, Cephrir,

Spiffeh

,

Papa Zito

, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion
Untrod Tripod [5] -

xRECKONERx, Ircher, Accountant, mastina

,

Something_Smart

Ser Arthur Dayne

[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,

Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola

Something_Smart

[1] -

GuyInFreezer

Not Voting [5] - Everyone Else

Vaxkiller [9] -

Ser Arthur Dayne

, SpyreX,

Fate

, Cheetory6, Cephrir,

Spiffeh

, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion,

Nukebringer

Untrod Tripod [6] -

xRECKONERx, Ircher, Accountant, mastina

,

Something_Smart

,

Papa Zito
Ser Arthur Dayne

[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,

Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola

Something_Smart

[1] -

GuyInFreezer
McMenno [1] - RedCoyote

Not Voting [3] - Untrod Tripod,

hiplop

, Nahdia

Vaxkiller [10] -

Ser Arthur Dayne

, SpyreX,

Fate

, Cephrir,

Spiffeh

, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion,

Nukebringer

,

Accountant, xRECKONERx

Untrod Tripod [5] -

Ircher, mastina

,

Something_Smart

,

Papa Zito

, Cheetory6

Ser Arthur Dayne

[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,

Vaxkiller
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola

Something_Smart

[2] -

GuyInFreezer

, Untrod Tripod

McMenno [1] - RedCoyote
Not Voting [2] - hiplop

, Nahdia

Vaxkiller [9] -

Ser Arthur Dayne

, SpyreX,

Fate

,

Spiffeh

, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion,

Nukebringer

,

Accountant, xRECKONERx

Untrod Tripod [4] -

mastina

,

Something_Smart

,

Papa Zito

, Cheetory6

Something_Smart

[4] -

GuyInFreezer

, Untrod Tripod,

RedCoyote

, Cephrir

Ser Arthur Dayne

[2] - Lady Lambdadelta, Vaxkiller

Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola
McMenno [1] - Ircher
Not Voting [2] - hiplop

, Nahdia

Vaxkiller [7] - SpyreX,

Fate

,

Spiffeh

, GreyICE, MagnaofIllusion,

Nukebringer

, Lady Lambdadelta
Untrod Tripod [5] -

mastina, Papa Zito

, Cheetory6,

Ser Arthur Dayne, xRECKONERx

Something_Smart

[5] -

GuyInFreezer

, Untrod Tripod,

RedCoyote

, Cephrir,

Accountant
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola
Ser Arthur Dayne

[1] - Vaxkiller

McMenno [1] - Ircher
GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

Not Voting [2] -

hiplop

, Nahdia

Untrod Tripod [7] -

mastina, Papa Zito

, Cheetory6,

Ser Arthur Dayne, xRECKONERx

,

Nukebringer

, SpyreX

Something_Smart

[7] -

GuyInFreezer

, Untrod Tripod,

RedCoyote

, Cephrir,

Accountant

, MagnaofIllusion,

Spiffeh

Vaxkiller [3] - GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta,

Fate
Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola
McMenno [1] - Ircher
GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [2] -

hiplop

, Nahdia

Untrod Tripod [5] -

mastina

, Cheetory6,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

Nukebringer

,

Fate
mastina

[5] - Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX,

Papa Zito, GuyInFreezer

, Untrod Tripod

Something_Smart

[5] -

RedCoyote

, Cephrir,

Accountant

, MagnaofIllusion,

Spiffeh

Ircher [2] - McMenno, ErrantParabola

Vaxkiller [1] - GreyICE

McMenno [1] - Ircher
GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [3] -

hiplop

, Nahdia,

xRECKONERx

Something_Smart

[8] -

RedCoyote

, Cephrir,

Accountant

, MagnaofIllusion,

Spiffeh

, Untrod Tripod,

GuyInFreezer

,

Nukebringer

Untrod Tripod [6] -

mastina

, Cheetory6,

Ser Arthur Dayne, Fate

, Nahdia,

McMenno
mastina

[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX,

Papa Zito
Ircher [1] - ErrantParabola

Vaxkiller [1] - GreyICE

McMenno [1] - Ircher
GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [2] -

hiplop, xRECKONERx

Untrod Tripod [10] -

mastina

, Cheetory6,

Ser Arthur Dayne, Fate

, Nahdia,

McMenno, hiplop, ErrantParabola, Accountant

,

Nukebringer
Something_Smart

[6] -

RedCoyote

, Cephrir, MagnaofIllusion,

Spiffeh

, Untrod Tripod,

GuyInFreezer
mastina

[4] - Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX,

Papa Zito

, GreyICE

McMenno [1] - Ircher
GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [1] -

xRECKONERx

Untrod Tripod [10] -

mastina, Ser Arthur Dayne

, Nahdia,

McMenno, hiplop, ErrantParabola, Accountant

,

Nukebringer

,

Ircher

, MagnaofIllusion

Something_Smart

[5] -

RedCoyote

, Cephrir,

Spiffeh

, Untrod Tripod,

GuyInFreezer, Fate
mastina

[4] - Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX,

Papa Zito

, GreyICE

GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [2] -

xRECKONERx

, Cheetory6

Something_Smart

[10] -

RedCoyote

, Cephrir,

Spiffeh

, Untrod Tripod,

GuyInFreezer, Fate

, SpyreX,

Accountant

, MagnaofIllusion, GreyICE
Untrod Tripod [8] -

mastina, Ser Arthur Dayne

, Nahdia,

McMenno, hiplop, ErrantParabola

,

Nukebringer

,

Ircher
mastina

[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,

Papa Zito
GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

Not Voting [3] -

xRECKONERx

, Cheetory6, Vaxkiller

Something_Smart

[10] -

RedCoyote

,

Spiffeh

, Untrod Tripod,

GuyInFreezer, Fate

, SpyreX,

Accountant

, MagnaofIllusion, GreyICE,

Nukebringer

Untrod Tripod [9] -

mastina, Ser Arthur Dayne

, Nahdia,

McMenno, hiplop, ErrantParabola, Ircher

,

Something_Smart

, Cephrir

mastina

[2] - Lady Lambdadelta,

Papa Zito
Not Voting [3] - xRECKONERx

, Cheetory6, Vaxkiller

Untrod Tripod [11] -

mastina, Ser Arthur Dayne

, Nahdia,

McMenno, hiplop, ErrantParabola, Ircher

,

Something_Smart

, Vaxkiller,

Fate

,

Spiffeh

Something_Smart

[7] -

RedCoyote

, Untrod Tripod,

GuyInFreezer, Accountant

, MagnaofIllusion,

Nukebringer

, Cephrir

mastina

[3] - Lady Lambdadelta,

Papa Zito

, SpyreX
Lady Lambdadelta [1] - GreyICE
Not Voting [2] -

xRECKONERx

, Cheetory6

Untrod Tripod [9] -

Ser Arthur Dayne

, Nahdia,

McMenno, ErrantParabola, Ircher

,

Something_Smart

, Vaxkiller,

Fate, RedCoyote

Something_Smart

[5] - Untrod Tripod,

GuyInFreezer, Accountant

, MagnaofIllusion,

Nukebringer

mastina

[4] - Lady Lambdadelta,

Papa Zito

, SpyreX, GreyICE
Lady Lambdadelta [1] -

mastina
ErrantParabola [1] - hiplop
RedCoyote

[1] - Cephrir
Not Voting [3] -

xRECKONERx

, Cheetory6,

Spiffeh

Untrod Tripod [9] -

Ser Arthur Dayne

, Nahdia,

McMenno, ErrantParabola, Ircher

,

Something_Smart

, Vaxkiller,

Fate

,

Nukebringer

mastina

[8] - Lady Lambdadelta,

Papa Zito

, SpyreX, GreyICE,

xRECKONERx, Accountant

, Untrod Tripod,

RedCoyote

Something_Smart

[2] -

GuyInFreezer

, MagnaofIllusion
Vaxkiller [2] - Cheetory6,

Spiffeh

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -

mastina
ErrantParabola [1] - hiplop
RedCoyote

[1] - Cephrir

Untrod Tripod [8] - Nahdia,

McMenno, ErrantParabola, Ircher

,

Something_Smart

, Vaxkiller,

Fate

,

Nukebringer

mastina

[6] - Lady Lambdadelta,

Papa Zito

, SpyreX,

xRECKONERx, Accountant, RedCoyote

Something_Smart

[3] -

GuyInFreezer

, MagnaofIllusion, Untrod Tripod
Lady Lambdadelta [3] -

mastina

, GreyICE,

Ser Arthur Dayne

Vaxkiller [2] - Cheetory6,

Spiffeh

ErrantParabola [1] - hiplop
RedCoyote

[1] - Cephrir

Ser Arthur Dayne

[12] - MagnaofIllusion,

RedCoyote

, Vaxkiller,

hiplop, GuyInFreezer

, Lady Lambdadelta,

xRECKONERx

, Cephrir, Nahdia,

Ircher

, GreyICE,

McMenno

Nukebringer

[3] - Cheetory6,

Spiffeh

, Untrod Tripod

RedCoyote [1] - mastina

Not Voting [6] - Everyone else

Errantparabola

[7] - GreyICE,

Nukebringer

, Lady Lambdadelta,

GuyInFreezer

, MagnaofIllusion, SpyreX, Untrod Tripod

Ircher [4] - McMenno, mastina

, Nahdia,

Accountant
McMenno [1] - Ircher

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -

xRECKONERx

Errantparabola

[7] - GreyICE,

Nukebringer

, Lady Lambdadelta,

GuyInFreezer

, SpyreX, Untrod Tripod, Cephrir

Ircher [4] - McMenno, mastina

, Nahdia,

Accountant
McMenno [1] - Ircher

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -

xRECKONERx
hiplop

[1] - MagnaofIllusion
Not Voting [6] - Everyone else

Errantparabola

[4] - GreyICE,

Nukebringer

,

GuyInFreezer

, Cephrir

Ircher [4] - McMenno, mastina

, Nahdia,

Accountant

Lady Lambdadelta [2] -

xRECKONERx, Ircher
hiplop

[1] - MagnaofIllusion

mastina

[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyrX
Not Voting [6] - Everyone else

Ircher [5] - McMenno, mastina

, Nahdia,

Accountant, RedCoyote
Errantparabola

[4] - GreyICE,

Nukebringer

,

GuyInFreezer

, Cephrir

mastina

[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX
Lady Lambdadelta [1] -

xRECKONERx
hiplop

[1] - MagnaofIllusion
Not Voting [6] - Everyone else

Ircher [5] - McMenno, mastina

, Nahdia,

Accountant, RedCoyote
mastina

[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX

McMenno [3] - Ircher

, Cephrir,

Nukebringer

Errantparabola

[2] - GreyICE,

GuyInFreezer

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -

xRECKONERx
hiplop

[1] - MagnaofIllusion
Not Voting [5] -

Papa Zito, hiplop

, Cheetory6,

Errantparabola

, Vaxkiller

Ircher [4] - McMenno, mastina, Accountant, RedCoyote
mastina

[4] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX,

xRECKONERx
McMenno [3] - Ircher

, Cephrir,

Nukebringer

Errantparabola

[2] - GreyICE,

GuyInFreezer
Accountant [1] - Papa Zito
hiplop

[1] - MagnaofIllusion
Not Voting [5] -

hiplop

, Cheetory6,

Errantparabola

, Vaxkiller, Nahdia

mastina

[5] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX,

xRECKONERx

, GreyICE

McMenno [4] - Ircher

, Cephrir,

Nukebringer

,

Accountant
Ircher [2] - McMenno, mastina
Errantparabola [1] - GuyInFreezer
Accountant [1] - Papa Zito
hiplop

[1] - MagnaofIllusion
Not Voting [5] -

hiplop

, Cheetory6,

Errantparabola

, Vaxkiller, Nahdia

McMenno [5] - Ircher

, Cephrir,

Nukebringer

,

Accountant

, GreyICE

mastina

[4] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX,

xRECKONERx
Ircher [3] - McMenno, mastina

, MagnaofIllusion

Accountant [1] - Papa Zito
Not Voting [5] - hiplop

, Cheetory6, Vaxkiller, Nahdia,

GuyInFreezer

McMenno [6] - Ircher

, Cephrir,

Accountant

, GreyICE,

xRECKONERx, McMenno
mastina

[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX

Ircher [1] - mastina
Not Voting [6] - hiplop

, Cheetory6, Vaxkiller, Nahdia,

GuyInFreezer

, MagnaofIllusion

McMenno

[4] - Cephrir,

Accountant, McMenno

, Lady Lambdadelta

mastina

[2] - Untrod Tripod, SpyreX

Ircher [1] - mastina

Lady Lambdadelta [1] -

xRECKONERx

MagnaofIllusion[1] - GreyICE
Not Voting [7] -

hiplop

, Cheetory6, Vaxkiller, Nahdia,

GuyInFreezer

, MagnaofIllusion,

Ircher

McMenno

[8] - Cephrir,

McMenno

, Lady Lambdadelta, Nahdia, Cheetory6,

xRECKONERx

, SpyreX,

GuyInFreezer

MagnaofIllusion[2] - GreyICE,

mastina
mastina

[1] - Untrod Tripod
Lady Lambdadelta [1] - Vaxkiller
Not Voting [2] -

hiplop

, MagnaofIllusion

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok I'll look at vca tonight hopefully. Can someone step up and help me look at the defenders of ss versus who is alive.

Actually hmm him claiming cop makes me think nad is town cause aim there worth gfmaker is better

Tonight or tomorrow I will get on this.

[mastina]

Things that immediately stick out:
-Vaxkiller is not a Russian.
That, or literally every fucking scumbuddy decided to bus him at some point. Something_smart, Spiffeh, and Nukebringer were all prominently on his wagon. Seriously. He is not flipping Russian. I almost greened his name out for this analysis, but I restrained because there's a significant chance SpyreX sabotaged hiplop's nuke so technically he won't be flipping if the nuke fails. Still, all the same: Vaxkiller is NOT a Russian.
-UT is also not a Russian. This is obvious from his voting history and also his persistent nature as a counterwagon to Something_smart, along with the fact that scum were evenly distributed between him and Vaxkiller.
-Another player who looks good by the VCA is Cephrir. While he was on the Vaxkiller wagon, he was among the first to push Something_smart, and among the last to hop off. He did hop off on 2227 to UT, and then to RedCoyote, so his record's not as good as UT's is, but it's more likely than not that he's town.

-SpyreX in contrast looks pretty bad: he chose the Vaxkiller wagon. In 2325, given the choice between UT and Something_smart, he chose UT. He also switched to me in 2516. He did eventually join--in 2753, during optimal bussing range. And at the first available opportunity (by 2889), he was back off of that wagon. (Which by the way marked Cephrir's return.)
-Nahdia is another name who doesn't look so great: didn't wagon many people, and when they have, it's been on town.
-LLD is another name to watch as not the best in appearance.

-MoI, GreyICE, and Cheetory all have so-so histories: nothing in their voting history is damning, but nothing in it is particularly promising, either.

-Unless you think all eight names listed in 3050 are town, there's probably at least one scum on my wagon. If we assume that UT is town (safe), the possibilities there are LLD, SpyreX, and GreyICE. I think we'll find at least one mafia there. Possibly two, though that's not strong. 3145, last useful votecount of the day, suggests it's between LLD/SpyreX, though GreyICE could be scum who switched off to start a counterwagon on LLD.

-Look at that SAD lynch. We can safely assume Vaxkiller and Cephrir are town on it. But that leaves MoI/LLD/Nahdia/GreyICE.
Unless the scum went out of their way to create an all-town lynch, it's a fairly safe bet there's at least one if not two scum in there.

-The Errant wagon in 3725 is also pretty terrible. Between GreyICE/LLD/Magna/SpyreX, there's no way that's all town.
Though, of note, if there were scum on Ircher Nahdia's the only possible candidate.
-3800 takes Magna off of Errant, though he's switched from one town to another.

-In 4025, with UT as town, I have a strong inclination once again to think both of LLD/SpyreX cannot be town.

-It's worth noting GreyICE did some switching around. he went from Errant, to me, and then to McMenno, the mislynch for that day.
Meanwhile, Magna moved to Ircher in 4407--that's actually a sign to me against Magna being scum, given that Nukebringer spent their last moment nuking Ircher. There's the chance he went there for the town credit, as in, "Look at me making this case on this player who I know is about to be nuked and therefore flip town!", but I'm doubtful of that.
-I'd like to point to the progression between 4554, 4650, and 4762. In the first, the only one not proven to be town on that L-2 wagon is GreyICE (assuming Cephrir town which is not at all a stretch).
Then, GreyICE switches off, and LLD on.
Then we get the pile-on: Nahdia, Cheetory, AND SpyreX all come on.

Given this, I'd say:
Figure of most interest, SpyreX.
VOTE: SpyreX.
Secondary figures of interest: LLD, Nahdia. (Maybe GreyICE?)
Tertiary interest: Cheetory. (Also, GreyICE if he's not a secondary.)