Mini 539: Game over

[Shteven]

An interesting quadrangle for your consideration…

Xtoxm’s suspicion of me is not unexpected. Anyone who has been keeping track can see that he has exhibited tunnel vision, focusing his contrary posts on SSK and myself. I’m not saying this is scummy, my read on Xtoxm is still stuck @ MotR. However, his focus is obvious, especially to someone who has just read the thread in its entirety.

I have clearly been attacking North/Shteven. Shteven has clearly been attacking SSK and cheerleading Xtoxm while taking it pretty easy on me. This pattern is somewhat suspicious.

@ Xtoxm: If you are town, watch your back on this. Your intentions may be entirely innocent but I do not believe Shteven’s are. Either way, you could tarnish your reputation here if you’re not careful.

What's MotR? I also disagree (already eexplained just above) with attacking MafiaSSK (I was, but merely in a note-taking fashion, having to catch up). I entirely agree with cheerleading Xtoxm, though. As for taking it easy on you, I have been answering your questions and will get to attacking you soon

If only playing mafia would provide calories, I just can't seem to stop myself from making more posts!

[Ythill]

@ Shteven: MotR = Middle of the Road. I am certainly looking forward to your conclusions, but take your time. The holidays will slow down our games anyway.

The apparent about-face on SSK doesn’t really look any better than your attacks against him. I hate to meta-argue with you after what you said about the practice, so please answer honestly… do you tend to “think out loud” in the thread?

You're leaping to conclusions. My previous posts have been pointing out notable things in the thread; NOT who I think we should lynch.

To test that theory I'd only be willing to lynch MafiaSSK due to his other mistakes, and only if he turned out scum would I still support a Ho1dem lynch on day 2.

This plus 728201626128 comments about SSK’s scumminess. It is possible my assumption wasn’t correct, but it’s misleading to say I’m “leaping to conclusions.”

…there's 3 scum...

How do you know this?

Was his claimed play style wrong in all games or only wrong in this one? If it's wrong in all, it could be just that he wanted to have that play style but couldn't pull it off.

The claim matched his play in this game, but was belied by his play in the other two. Your suggestion is

possible

but, considering other tells, I consider it unlikely.

Regarding the “interesting quadrangle” it was more of an observation than an accusation. The suggestion of scumminess stems more from the fact that I already think you are scummy than from some conspiracy theory. I really do want to turn my attention elsewhere but (for Justin’s sake, LOL) I’ll make sure to give you the last word.

And, as always, I invite attacks and suspicions. I'm as likely to be scum as anyone. You may fire when ready.

[Shteven]

Some quotes from myself, over a few posts, magically chopped up together without a lot of words between:

Post 1:
hi I'm here.
Post 2:
For now I'm just going to highlight some things on my read through that struck me as interesting. I've read only the first four pages actually; this thread is a lot denser (information wise) than I was expecting. still, only 3 pages to go, so I should be caught up soon.

I apologize there's no overall "flow" to this post; it's more or less responses in the order of the posts in the thread. I'll do pages 5, 6, 7 and then try to do some wrapping up with a list of likely scum at the end.

<posts some game notes>

Post 3:
Continuing from page 5:

<stuff>

I'm going to seperate page 7 responses into another post.

Post 4:
Page 7 & general response to Ythill coming right up!

<more stuff>

My list of top people we should lynch and why will be coming soon.

The bold is new

I have ALWAYS been very clear about what I was doing. That you overlooked this to try to hang me with suggests tunnel vision. If a player like Discipline Slayer had missed it, I'd be fine with that. No offense to him; but he posts short things, answers direct questions (I hope) and doesn't go to great lengths in his posts. Players like you (Ythill) and Justin Playfair, however, tend to analyze -everything-. For you to go into such detailed arguments and not understand what I'm doing is wrong.

Aka: it's the perception argument about MafiaSSK all over again.

Now, I'll grant you that I did mention a willingness to lynch him in the notes. I should have chosen my language more carefully, as it was simply based on his earlier mistakes. As I mentioned briefly before, The first few mistakes he made kept increasing his scumniess until eventually it became a null tell instead. However, I greatly dislike players who play scummy and avoid questions. If you're so eager to meta, I'm sure you can find a game where I pressed hard to lynch someone* on day 5 no less, because of this. They ended up thinking I was scum instead, and I went down that day (townie). Unfortunately the game is still running despite having started in May...[/grumble]

*reference to ongoing-game-that-really-should-be-done-by-now-I-mean-come-on made more subtle

In short, I tend to overreact to scummy play styles because I'm not eager to give out passes to certain players who take shall we say an "agressive" play style to make scum tells for free.

How do you know this?

How do you know there's 2 scum in a newbie game? These are balanced setups. This is not a theme game. The kind of people who are afraid to say the obvious for fear of implication are not pro-town. I consider this jab opportunistic, although it's minor.

Regarding a question about ChronX from Justin: The overall suspicion of Incognito for trying to offer 'wise' advice on game theory seems fine. I have absolutely no idea about this line:

Fortunately, this will come back to bite him when the inevitable rash of replacements occur and more vets filter into the blend.

Prophetic? I don't know why you'd say that so early. I guess I get to call myself a vet now? Anyways, seems like a stretch, but there's something there. It would be much easier to get a read on Incognito if his last 'real' post hadn't been December 13th. In his last post he just asks the mods for prods. Here's a good one:

Prod Incongito.

With this post I consider my responses are done for the moment: scum picks coming up now.

(original bold this time!)

[Shteven]

It was actually harder to come up with this than I thought it would be, due to many players not having all that many posts to go on. A lot of activity seems to have dropped off around mid December.

It's too early to consider a single scum team; these players are being weighed on individual merits.

Apyadg

- Abandoning the MafiaSSK wagon. Didn't want to be caught when it came up town. Stops voting for only person he's suspicious of, and fails to any other scum hunting. Last post Dec 11...hmmm. December 10th posting:

I'll start by apologising for the lack of involvement for the last two or three days, it was a work-intensive period at uni, fortunately I've now finished until after Christmas, so I expect no further inactive periods during this game.

So then he promises to hunt scum:

It seemed like a good idea to me at the time, I think easing off Mafia (I'm just going to refer to him as SSK for the rest of the game, I think), and looking at more people (I anticipate the point being repeated that I failed to do this, and it's a point that I concede, see my last post, regarding me planning to re-read), whilst keeping an eye on SSK was the best approach.

And then he hasn't posted since the 11th. I think this is the member of team mafia who's taking the lurking approach, letting their buddies try to get a mislynch. It wouldn't be so damning if he himself hadn't said he would be active during break.

Ythill

- Honestly I feel you're pushing way too hard. Meta attacks in games like this (of people who are newer, and more importantly people who are inactive) are counter productive. It lends you an air of authority that I don't think many, if any, other players will check. Put yourself in MafiaSSK, Discipline Slayer, or Apyadg's shoes. Do you think they've looked up NJH's other games? Even I haven't.

Know your audience.

You have tunnel vision. You vote MafiaSSK, then all NJH/Me. Yet you jumped on me for posting, in my notes, that MafiaSSK slipped up early on and I was making note of it. I clearly posted that I was writing notes to catch up on the thread but you must have missed that, while picking apart every other word in my posts. Apparently it's ok for you to suspect MafiaSSK, and you'll even explicitly mention it was ok for ChronX to also, but your designated lynch target isn't allowed.

You also have a disturbing trend of trying to get one people's good sides by pointing out how fair and noble you are. Now, I've done this once in a current game of mine, but after I did, and was rightly called for it, I admitted the mistake and I'm being more careful about doing it again. Let me quote some of yours:

I’m willing to take my turn in the hot seat if need be.

Anyone else want to take a stab at me before we move on to other matters?

This is my second game but I spent two months reading the site before I signed up. Also, my IQ is 146. Not yanking my own chain here, just explaining that I am a quick learner.

Not trying to distract from attacks against me, keep ‘em coming if you like.

I do have a rather tame question for you.

And, as always, I invite attacks and suspicions. I'm as likely to be scum as anyone. You may fire when ready. Very Happy

It's starting to get old. I find it odd that ChronX called Incognito for it, but no one's pointed out Ythill doing it to a far greater extent. Also, here's a contradiction which is probably minor, but bothers me:

Fair Warnings: This is my second game, though I’ve read a bunch. I’m playing the n00b card now, so I won’t be tempted to later. Also, I am of the belief that keeping some information secret can be strong town play, so don’t think of it as a scumtell if I tell you, “none of your business,” or some such thing.

This is my second game but I spent two months reading the site before I signed up. Also, my IQ is 146. Not yanking my own chain here, just explaining that I am a quick learner.

I'm new so I'll screw up, but don't worry guys I'm awesome and I'll do everything right.

ChronX

- Early jump from Xtoxm to MafiaSSK seems opportunistic, but it's way too early in the game to think the wagon would succeed. It got quite a bit farther than I expected it to. Early attacks on Ho1den/Incognito show some reaching, but it's early. I'd like some more recent things to go on.

However, since he's gone, well, I'm going to wait to build more here. I will point out it was interesting he was still going after MafiaSSK as late as page 6; but I'm under flak for sounding hostile to him in game notes. He voted him until the end, only unvoting because of his departure. This is both a mark against him, and Ythill was willing to give him a free pass for it, again, on page 6:

Question to the rest of the field: Is my vote on SSK still so out of the realm of realistic?

I never thought the vote was unrealistic.

Also, I'm going to throw in an IGMEOY @ Incongito. But this will be more for day two and beyond.
---------

As mentioned above; they're not in order. Why? Because of the posting length differences between them. I have a lot more case against Ythill, but I'm wondering if that's just because he's played more.

Still, I'm not going to post my analysis and not include a vote, so I have to pick someone.

Vote: Ythill

. Now, is this OMGUS? "Oh My God You Suck", not "Oh My God You Scum", means voting for someone because they made a mistake of voting for you. And you know you're town because of your role PM. It's poor play because others can't go on the information of your PM, and so reflexive voting doesn't give them anything to go on. But arguing a counter-case based on the thread is not OMGUS. So no, I don't consider this to be a problem. In fact, I take issue with Ythill's post here:

IMO, Incog’s interjection was less excusable than Xtoxm’s but me pointing it out aggressively would have seemed OMGUS, reducing the validity of the accusation. I figured I’d leave it for someone who wasn’t on the wagon to bring up, but I guess it’s too late for that now.

You can't attack someone if you're involved? They get a free pass? Well great, I guess you'd better unvote me now, because you wouldn't want to appear to be making an invalid accusation. I think this is a serious red flag. He's overlooking Incognito's behavior selectively. This is the reason for the IGMEOY.

[Disciple Slayer]

Okay,

now

I am back. Post those questions.

[Ythill]

Shteven, I am still convinced that you are scum and my vote will remain. However, I agree that going round and round with you is distracting from other legitimate hunting. I have been wanting to get away from this for some time now. Therefore I will let your current defenses stand, refrain from indicating what might be scummy in your newest posts, and abandon this line of argument for now.

For the record, I do not feel that your vote is OMGUS. It is somewhat unnecessary since you are really just confirming the vote left on me by your predecessor, but you have provided enough evidence (however contrived) to disprove an OMGUS claim.

On to my defenses…

For you to go into such detailed arguments and not understand what I'm doing is wrong.

Aka: it's the perception argument about MafiaSSK all over again.

Good point, except that I didn’t miss or misunderstand your statement. If I were to believe that saying “This is just notes,” excuses whatever is posted afterward, then I wouldn’t be very good at this game. Pointing out suspicious behavior in my PE#1 isn’t scummy. Arguing, after a replacement, to determine whether my PE#1 appeared scummy due to the player or the role is not “pushing way too hard.”

Meta attacks in games like this (of people who are newer, and more importantly people who are inactive) are counter productive.

Show me where I’ve made a meta-attack. I accused North of lurking, he made a

meta defense

, I shot it down. This has been explained. Unless you can disprove my explanation, drop it.

You have tunnel vision. You vote MafiaSSK, then all NJH/Me.

I’ve made 46 posts counting this one. The number of accusatory posts made by me referencing each player are as follows: Shteven 11, Incog 3, SSK 2, charter 2, Ho1den 2, Xtoxm 2, ChronX 0, Natude 0, DS 0, Justin 3, Apyadg 1. Some players have lower numbers because I haven’t gotten to them yet, or they haven’t been posting; others because I got a read on them right away. True, I have been caught up arguing with North and you, but this line of discussion has produced 13 reliable scumtells (3 of them major) stretched evenly over the role’s two players. It has also produced a whole lot of counter argument (your role’s accusations against me number 11 as well). In spite of all this, I have clearly tried to get away from this focus at least twice (Justin even called me scummy for it), and have inferred that I would like to move on to other things.

I

do

agree that my behavior could be seen as tunnel vision but insist that my reasons for it are clear. There are no ulterior motives here.

You also have a disturbing trend of trying to get one people's good sides by pointing out how fair and noble you are.

Absolutely WIFOM. I would simply end the argument there, except that you chose to blur the distinctions of something ChronX posted and twist my words in support of this ludicrous accusation. ChronX accused Incog of trying to set himself up as the voice of authority, yet you compare this to my “fair and noble” posts which clearly do not have the same effect, intended or otherwise. As for the word twisting, it sure helps a weak argument when you lump a bunch of quotes together out of context. Two of the “fair and noble” statements you quoted were posted in response to direct accusations, one was a friendly response to a friendly jab (both with smilies), another was rhetoric correctly describing a “rather tame question,” yet you attribute them all to some asinine proactive scum strategy on my part.

You can't attack someone if you're involved? They get a free pass? Well great, I guess you'd better unvote me now, because you wouldn't want to appear to be making an invalid accusation. I think this is a serious red flag. He's overlooking Incognito's behavior selectively.

You can attack someone if you’re involved but the attack lacks credibility, is easily defended against, and could be twisted into a reliable counter-attack by opportunistic scum. You infer these facts with the preemptive OMGUS defense that this part of your post supports, yet you forget them a few sentences later when such becomes convenient for your attack on me. I have not ignored Incog, I’ve made 3 accusatory posts directed at him, making him my most suspected player second to you, and… oh the irony… the “new angle” I’ve been foreshadowing focuses heavily on Incognito’s behavior.

I disagree with Justin’s attacks against me. He is wrong in his suspicions but he makes a much better case than you do. I don’t like your cases against Apyadg and ChronX either, but will let them defend themselves. It would greatly interest me to read Justin’s opinion of Shteven’s #177 & 178.

[Ythill]

@ DS: Reposted for your convenience…

DS - as long as you're around, what's your take on Apy after his arguement with me? More convinced he is scum? Has it alleviated your suspicions?

Actually, DS, I do have a question for you. Assuming you've had time for a readthrough, how about a brief summary of your views on each of the players. I like the unique perspective of a person who returns after hiatus.

Also, could you reply to these declaratory statements which reference your behavior?

There was no way MafiaSSK's initial vote could have been a serious one. Come on, who finds someone suspicious at the beginning of the random voting stage? That was obviously a joke vote.

I hope you've got two votes buddy, because that was not at all a joke vote!

A minor thing, but I’ve been rereading the thread a lot.

On the 11th Disciple Slayer posts:

I'm here if anyone wants to ask me any questions.

He is asked a few questions but does not respond. On the 13th Incognito posts this:

@Disciple Slayer: You've been asked a number of questions from different sources now that you have yet to respond to. I'd like for you to become more active in the thread now so that your posts aren't as retrospective as they have been, otherwise I'm tempted to call you out on lurking. It seems like you've been avoiding scrutiny because you haven't been around to garner it.

And just over 30 minutes later Disciple Slayer responds:

Posting will commence on the 18th. I've got a busy weekend and a flight immediately after.

It is now the 23rd and Disciple Slayer has not posted. With the time of the year it could be nothing, and the quick response to Incognito when Incognito called him on not answering questions as he’d said he would could certainly have been a coincidence. But I thought the timing was interesting enough that it was worth pointing out.

[Disciple Slayer]

Thanks, Ythill.

Apyadg just seems confused. He doesn't seem like he knows what he's doing. I'm going to

UNVOTE

him for now, pending my reread.

Player summaries will be posted after my reread.

I still think MSSK's vote was a joke vote.

I was fairly busy then, and my schedule kept changing. I have enough time for a quick reread and player summaries, then I'm going to be away 'til after new year's.

[Disciple Slayer]

Those Living: (12)
1. Shteven

Ping

2. Incognito
3. Ythill
4. MafiaSSK
5. charter
6. Ho1den
7. Xtoxm
8. ChronX
9. Natude
10. Disciple Slayer
11. Justin Playfair
12. Apyadg

I think most of the vocal people here are just townies arguing with each other. Only Shteven/NJH has really pinged my scumdar. My bet is that he's scum, with his buddies hiding in the shadows.

UNVOTE

VOTE: SHTEVEN

[Shteven]

DS: Your player list was not ordered. I happen to be at the top because I'm player #1, but presenting the full list makes it look like it's a scum list. Could you please either order it by scumminess, include comments on the rest of the players (then order isn't that important, if you mention it's just player by player commentary) or just not list all players?

[Shteven]

I do agree that my behavior could be seen as tunnel vision but insist that my reasons for it are clear. There are no ulterior motives here.

I understand what you mean; I'm not swayed, but I think we've reached agreement on this aspect, for a very liberal meaning of the word agreement, and there isn't much left to say.

Show me where I’ve made a meta-attack. I accused North of lurking, he made a meta defense, I shot it down. This has been explained. Unless you can disprove my explanation, drop it.

This strikes me as exactly like the "accusations" that Justin Playfair made. As long as you don't explictly say "This is an attack" then it's not an attack? You are calling NJH scum in this game partially because it didn't match his other games, where he was presumably town. That's a meta attack. It's very black and white. Perhaps he brought it up first; I could go back and check, but I believe you wouldn't lie about that. But regardless of how it started, it's still an attack at this point. And I'd appreciate not being told what I can and can't talk about, Mr. I'm Controlling The Thread.

[Ythill]

...Mr. I'm Controlling The Thread.

I really hope this doesn't end up being my special title someday, lol... I stand by the fact that I didn't take it there (meta) originally, but will concede that a "counter-defense" is technically an attack.

DS, I understand your reads though agree that the way you posted them was a little vague. I also agree with what you said about the talkative = town + scum = quiet (in this game, not generally) except that I have Xtoxm and ChronX both firmly MotR. I'd love to get better reads on these two.

Could others share their thoughts on Xtoxm and ChronX? Or maybe some good questions for them? I'm going to start working on an Incog PBPA today.

[Justin Playfair]

Ythill,

Thank you for your response. I repeated my earlier points because you asked me to look at my early case against you again. I was pointing out those bits which still bother me the most. As for the “invisible evidence”, that was in the post I don’t intend to ask you anything about. Since you addressed that post to me I felt I needed to respond to it, but I don’t intend to refer to it again, and I stated my reasons why.

Now as to the meta. I have read Northjayhawk’s posts in his other two games. I will not comment on them because there are replacements coming into both those games as well. I will say that it is my belief that one might want to take into account the level of posting a player did during a specific time frame as opposed to a specific phase of the game, as their external situation may have a great deal to do with their level of posting. Another possible factor would be the level of involvement someone may have in a specific game at a specific time. I really do see this as an unfair attack, because from my reading I see a perfectly acceptable defense to this attack which Northjayhawk could have only mounted by being more specific than is possible. And to this end, I would strongly recommend that anyone who is interested read Northjayhawk’s posts in the other two games he was in, from the beginning to the end of his involvement. For content and for time frame.

Now onto your suspicions. I have some questions for Shteven right below but first I want to ask why Incognito makes your number two slot. I have a pretty benign reading of Incognito and would be interested in your reasons for seeing him in a different way.


Shteven,

Accusing Ythill of tunnel vision seems odd. (By the way, I did not suggest Ythill had tunnel vision in respect to Northjayhawk. I suggested that he made an aggressive accusation that I believed was unfair and then tried to cut off discussion of it, leaving the implication that Northjayhawk was scum while trying to rob him of the chance to defend himself…this is not tunneling, and Ythill has attempted to shape his other exchanges in the same way, finishing them with a dialogue-ending ‘and that’s why you’re scummy, so let’s move on’).

In your discussion of Ythill tunneling you mention his behavior regarding MafiaSSK. I’m curious about this, because nothing Ythill did regarding MafiaSSK makes me believe he ever had even the least intention of pursuing MafiaSSK in any serious fashion. I mean Ythill not only took his vote off MafiaSSK early, he did it before MafiaSSK had even answered any questions involving his behavior. And Ythill has accused several players, including me, and not tried to push any of his cases to completion.

So could you give a little more form to your accusation of tunneling? Because I just don’t get that one.

And this:

You also have a disturbing trend of trying to get one people's good sides by pointing out how fair and noble you are. Now, I've done this once in a current game of mine, but after I did, and was rightly called for it, I admitted the mistake and I'm being more careful about doing it again. Let me quote some of yours:

Followed by:

It's starting to get old. I find it odd that ChronX called Incognito for it, but no one's pointed out Ythill doing it to a far greater extent.

The contradiction in Ythill’s behavior I found interesting was that he invited suspicion and then always included a counter punch back at the person expressing that suspicion, which seems to be a possible defensive scum tactic. And I did call him on this. It was nothing at all like what Incognito did, or what he was called out for doing.

I’m always curious about morphing attacks, so could you explain in more detail why you think what Ythill did equals what Incognito did?

Finally, this just bothers me, because it’s a point that there seems to be general agreement about, and I feel totally in the dark about it.

Also, I'm going to throw in an IGMEOY @ Incongito. But this will be more for day two and beyond.

Okay, I’ve reread all of Incognito’s posts in isolation, read them in thread, and I’m just not getting the high level of suspicion about him. So I’d like a bit more about Incognito, if you don’t mind. And more than anything I’d like an explanation of why “this will be more for day two and beyond”. We’re on day one, we don’t have a consensus, so why wait?

Anyway, any answers would be appreciated.

[Incognito]

All: In case you're wondering, I'm still around. I plan to do a reread and a read-through of Shteven's posts (btw hi, Shteven) before posting some content later tonight. Glad to see this game is still being kept alive.

[Shteven]

There's several things I need to touch on but I don't have much time right now. So I just thought I'd mention the easy one and put off the rest until tommorow.

The main reason I was suspicious of Incognito was just that Ythill ignored his behavior but went after ChronX for the same thing. Ythill explicitly stated that he was not going to question incog about it; which struck me as odd. The reason it's day 2 is that it's not something incog did himself; it's Ythill's behavior that was out of place. So I'm voting Ythill, and if he comes up scum, then we'll have a link between Incog and known scum. Until then, it's not much to go on. Incog himself hasn't given off any scumtells that I've caught.

[Ythill]

Thank you, Justin. I knew I could count on you being reasonable about Shteven's accusations even though your vote is on me. I hope that time will show you the truth about my alignment but I am growing more certain about yours. If you

are

scum, you are a far better player than I (and you can quote me on that later ).

I have read Northjayhawk’s posts in his other two games... I will say that it is my belief that one might want to take into account the level of posting a player did during a specific time frame as opposed to a specific phase of the game, as their external situation may have a great deal to do with their level of posting. Another possible factor would be the level of involvement someone may have in a specific game at a specific time.

I hadn't considered these points. On the one hand, you are right. On the other hand, he could have said as much, rather than making a general statement about his playstyle. Either way, I think it stands that the statement he made was untrue, though you bring more doubt as to whether he was lying or mistaken.

I want to ask why Incognito makes your number two slot.

You have misunderstood what I meant though I don't blame you. Rereading, my statement was easy to misinterpret. I did not mean to say that Incognito was in my #2 slot. In all honesty, I've been focusing a bit too much on Shteven and have not quantified the rest of my scum-list in a while. What I

was

saying was that, with 3 posts from me regarding suspicions of Incoginto, he was second to Shteven as the person I had posted the most suspicions of (a.k.a my second most suspected person).

However, I

am

about to look heavily into Incog's behavior to check out some unspoken suspicions I've had. In fact, I logged in to reread him when I noticed your questions so... I'll be sure to include where he stands on my scum-list at the end of my PBPA on him.

[Incognito]

@Shteven:

Could you just clarify what you mean by what you mentioned below - namely what I have bolded?

You also have a disturbing trend of trying to get one people's good sides by pointing out how fair and noble you are. Now, I've done this once in a current game of mine, but after I did, and was rightly called for it, I admitted the mistake and I'm being more careful about doing it again. Let me quote some of yours:

I’m willing to take my turn in the hot seat if need be.

Anyone else want to take a stab at me before we move on to other matters?

This is my second game but I spent two months reading the site before I signed up. Also, my IQ is 146. Not yanking my own chain here, just explaining that I am a quick learner.

Not trying to distract from attacks against me, keep ‘em coming if you like.

I do have a rather tame question for you.

And, as always, I invite attacks and suspicions. I'm as likely to be scum as anyone. You may fire when ready. Very Happy

It's starting to get old. I find it odd that ChronX called Incognito for it, but no one's pointed out Ythill doing it to a far greater extent.

I'm having a hard time understanding how the Ythill statements you've quoted are anything like what ChronX was calling me out for. ChronX was accusing me of taking on some sort of an experienced Mafia player role that becomes the "voice of wisdom" and guides the town to mislynches. How is that related to all of the statements you've quoted from Ythill?

My vote will remain on Apyadg as I still believe his actions are most suspicious, and I feel his exchanges with Ho1den and Ythill did nothing to clear my suspicion of him.

Also, I'm extremely leery of Disciple Slayer. Justin Playfair brings up information that's at least noteworthy about him with regard to how he was able to rapidly appear in the thread after I called him out for non-posting. I think more noteworthy though is how Disciple Slayer promised player summaries following his reread but instead, only followed that statement up with a player list and a vote on Shteven. That's twice now where Disciple Slayer has been able to look at things retrospectively, gather information from the evidence provided, and place a vote on the player feeling the most pressure at said time. Shteven still only has two votes (I believe) on himself but Ythill's posts against Shteven haven't seemed to die down or lessen in intensity.

[Ythill]

My first niggling suspicions of Incognito came as a result of what I considered a clear town read on Apyadg sometime after he was pressured with three votes. I started thinking about the things that both charter and Incognito have done in this thread. Consideration of Incog’s actions and possible motives got me interested enough to do a reread. This topic, IMO, has tarnished charter a bit as well, but not enough to pick apart here.

I’ve now reread Incog both in isolation and in context, studied my notes on him, and have some points for everyone’s consideration.

Basic Stats

Posts: 17, On Topic: 11, Check ins: 4, Digressions: 2.
Sig:Noise = 11:6
Votes (1/11): Apyadg (not counting the random on Justin)
FoSes (0/11): nobody
Accuses (6/11): Shteven (1), Ythill (2), charter (2), ChronX (2), DS (2), Apyadg (2)
Defends (3/11): Ythill (1), SSK (1), Xtoxm (1)

Incognito has the fourth highest post count in the game, yet the second worst sig:noise after ChronX. He’s lead the most digressions. So he is active, yet posts less content than some players who are less active than he. Meanwhile, he directly references others’ inactivity nine times, including sending a prod to the mod. This game is slow and many of us have referenced inactivity a bit, but Incognito, who posts a lot of fluff, is establishing himself as the “lurker police.” Why? To establish that post count equals content? To draw suspicion away from his disinterested scumhunting?

There are two players whom Incog has defended but not attacked. A lot of his “attacks” are not what Justin (or Miriam-Webster) would call “accusations,” they are more like jabs, are spread around evenly, and are often backhanded.

PBPA

• In #28 Incog defends Xtoxm under the guise of attacking Ho1den. This is his first serious post and we see his first incidence of fence sitting. This post can be played later as an attack or a defense (he ends up calling it an attack in #88, after Justin challenges him on it being a defense).
  
  Incog also makes his first “voice of authority” post here, which I saw as not scummy in itself, as he simply answers Apyadg’s question. But the post thereby establishes Incog realizing that Apyadg is a true n00b (and therefore a good target?) because he doesn’t know about the closed setup.
  
  
• In #36 Incog poses as the IC again, this time bringing a digression to the thread, possibly attempting to distract from the attention on Xtoxm or SSK. If so, it doesn’t work. There is something else very scummy about this post but I want to let it play out before drawing attention to it. If allowed to progress naturally, it will either confirm or disprove itself.
  
  
• In #44 Incog clearly defends SSK. It would have been entirely possible for him to question the wagon without that defense but he posts it anyway. In fact, the defense takes up the majority of the post and the attack seems like more of a deflection of suspicion. It is very vague.
  
  

• Chron, this is a strange statement especially since I wouldn't even consider myself to be an "experienced player". I've only been on the site for a month and have only completed one Newbie game while this current game is my first mini-game ever.

  This is Incog’s defense to the “voice of authority” accusation (which came in #49). I thought the accusation was well thought out even if it was a bit of a stretch. The defense, however, makes me wonder about Incog. It amounts to
  I am not a duck, therefore I could not have been pretending to be a duck
  and is left to stand unsupported.
  
  He goes on to justify his defense of SSK (see #44, above) as not being a defense, but being a wise move, thereby invoking the “voice of authority” he
  wasn’t
  setting up earlier. He smokescreens by increasing his suspicion of the wagon, posting the names of two players who “jumped on.” What gets me here is, why not post those players’ names the first time he suspected the wagon? Why deepen it once he comes under attack? Neither player had done anything else “scummy” in the interim. And why lump the two players together? This is another fence-sitting post, looks like he’s accusing both to see which attack gets support. The accusation regarding Apyadg was clearly not valid, a fact that Apyadg points out two posts later (in #60).
  
  
• But ChronX has posted a weaker defense in #59 and Incognito comes back in #62 to argue with him; ChronX’s #64 and Incog’s #68 continue this spat. Neither player makes very good points. My gut says that this exchange feels contrived, but I can’t back that up with facts. Suffice to say, Incog never challenges the stronger of the two defenses. This choice of arguments infers that he has identified ChronX as the scummier of the twins from #58.
  
  
• Except charter takes Incog’s bait in #69, attacking Apyadg. Two posts later, in #71, Incog follows and cheerleads charter, voting Apyadg. So we have the
  reality
  in which Incog quietly initiates suspicion on Apyadg (the n00b) but the
  illusion
  that charter lead the attack, both factors set up by Incog’s posts. Also with his vote, Incog suggests that it is Apyadg (not ChronX) whom he finds the scummiest of those original twins. He never returns to the ChronX argument, or to suspecting him at all.
  
  In fact, his only other mention of ChronX is a tidbit in #129: “I've already explained this pretty thoroughly in a bunch of posts where I've responded to ChronX and Justin Playfair... why charter still feels the need to make an inaccurate statement like this, I have no clue.” This suggests that ChronX initiated their spat when, in fact, Incog did.
  
  
• In #88, Incog is on defense. He deflects suspicion back on Apyadg, reiterating his use of the word “bad” to vaguely say “scummy.” My main problem with this is that, in context, Apyadg’s meaning was clear. Incog has heavily decried me questioning SSK’s grammar, yet does the same thing here without the depth of my “failed premise”. Also Incog chronically commits the same sin he accuses Apyadg of, using phrases like “a little odd” and “a bit odd.” Even in context, these statements of his are less clear than Apyadg’s and could actually be construed as intentionally placing suspicion without coming out and saying it.
  
  
• By the time Incog posts #109, DS has come out of lurking to quick-vote Apyadg, making the wagon seem scummier. Incog doesn’t address Apyadg’s defenses or his own vote, just questions DS and promises to post content “later today” (Tuesday, December 11).
  
  
• On Decenmber 13, Incog finally posts content in #129, but only to address a direct question. His read on charter is on the fence, leaning town, which makes sense considering the public reads on charter and Incog’s recent teaming up with him. His one accusation is a sly defense of himself, as he is only referring to charter’s attack on him; he twists the words of that attack, making it seem as if charter posted a scummy read regarding SSK, when, in reality, charter never referenced SSK’s alignment; and he accuses charter of making an “inaccurate statement” that IMO (and others’) was accurate. Incog is setting up a way to distance himself from others who are voting Apyadg.
  
  
• In #137, Incognito finally addresses current events. At this point there are two dynamic exchanges that have taken place, both involving me (sorry). About the Justin/Ythill exchange, Incog openly takes a seat on the fence, saying the arguments are over his head. Then he argues both sides of the North/Ythill debate, another solid seat on the fence.
  
  
• Now we have #191, in which Incognito echoes my latest defense and moves slightly to one side of the Shteven/Ythill debate, as if to soften my attack. He preemptively justifies his vote on Apyadg and, in doing so, points out that Ho1den and I have also accused Apyadg. So now we are meant to see that he is on a wagon charter started and other players (including the one about to PBPA him) failed to derail. Again, it’s everyone’s fault but his.
  
  He ends the post by casting suspicion on DS. I agree with a bit of what Incog says here. Who wouldn’t? But what makes me suspicious is that he links it all back to the Apyadg thing. Not only are we meant to believe that the Apyadg case is not Incog’s doing, we are shown that ~should we find the wagon scummy~ it is DS who is to be held in highest suspicion.

Summary

I’m seeing a very scummy pattern here. Every dynamic action by Incognito is conveniently dual-edged. Not only is he making the initial fence-sitting posts but he is without exception leaning whichever way best suits him personally, rather than following the evidence. In one case he even played both sides of the fence, switching quickly when it would have best suited scum to do so.

Incog’s scumhunting consists of a few jabs here and there, from which he jumps on weakness and follows other players, rather than proceeding logically. After failed attacks he distances himself from them. He has asked a few questions but has yet to tie one of the answers logically to a read on anyone; considering the questions in some cases, one must wonder how he

could

. From the beginning, Incog has pursued a very suspicious case against Apyadg. When he reads that there is a PBPA coming, his vote on Apyadg is the only thing he preemptively justifies.

Many of these factors are perfectly explainable alone but... together? Incog seems to be consistantly playing strategy rather than hunt. You know, I wasn’t expecting this when I started writing this post, but I have convinced myself. Incog is not in my #2 slot, Shteven is.

Unvote, vote Incognito

and, just for the record... I'm still firmly

FoS: Shteven

.

[Ythill]

I noticed this during my reread. On the topic of my defense vs. Shteven, I believe the quotes speak for themselves (bold mine).

In fact, I take issue with Ythill's post here:

IMO, Incog’s interjection was less excusable than Xtoxm’s but me pointing it out

aggressively

would have seemed OMGUS, reducing the validity of the accusation. I figured I’d leave it for someone who wasn’t on the wagon to bring up, but I guess it’s too late for that now.

You can't attack someone if you're involved? They get a free pass? Well great, I guess you'd better unvote me now, because you wouldn't want to appear to be making an invalid accusation. I think this is a serious red flag.

He's overlooking Incognito's behavior

selectively.

YTHill mildly chides xtoxm for answering a question directed at MafiaSSK. Yet when Incognito does something similar...

Ythill chides him less mildly. Did you really not see that? IMO, Incog’s interjection was less excusable than Xtoxm’s but

me

pointing it out

aggressively

would have seemed OMGUS...

With regard to MafiaSSK's actions and vote, I think a bit too much weight is being placed on the random voting phase.

QFT.

But now

you’re

volunteering the easy answer.

What, you hear the train coming? I hope you guys are this nice to me when I’m under the microscope.

[Nanosauromo]

Kuribo replaces Natude.

Votecount first thing in the morning.

[kuribo]

I like replacing. Give me a bit to do a short read of the eight pages and I'll jump in at full force!

[Shteven]

Full responses time! Yay!

Accusing Ythill of tunnel vision seems odd.

I've come to realize that it's not quite tunnel vision. It's a different kind of play style. What he'll do is he'll pick someone and focus on them for a day or two (or three or four). He'll carry out an argument with them fully, and not argue with other players. But after the argument concludes, he'll latch on to another person. He's not really tunneling on one player for the entire in-game day; but rather going one by one through the player list. It's unusual, so when it first settled on me I thought he was tunneling, now, it seems more of a misunderstanding.

I’m curious about this, because nothing Ythill did regarding MafiaSSK makes me believe he ever had even the least intention of pursuing MafiaSSK in any serious fashion.

I think this may be related to the above. MafiaSSK was the first suspicious player, and so he was the natural one to talk about for a while. Ironically, it's probably the same mistake Ythill made by assuming I wanted to lynch him when he came up frequently in notes. I think I need to take a step back and look for some of the less obvious things said in this game; I seem to only be picking up on the easier to spot items.

I’m always curious about morphing attacks, so could you explain in more detail why you think what Ythill did equals what Incognito did?

This one I'm standing by it could use some clarification. This is also the explanation for Incognito's quote.

ChronX accused Incognito of:

Incognito seems to be setting himself up as the town's voice of authority, by answering game setup questions and making lengthy statements about game theory and such. This is often a scum tactic adopted by experienced players in a game with apparent newbs; you establish yourself as the wise man and can direct votes and thought processes later. Fortunately, this will come back to bite him when the inevitable rash of replacements occur and more vets filter into the blend.

The last sentence there still seems a bit creepy to me no matter how often I read it...Anyways, the part of this I'm citing is setting yourself up as the town's voice of authority. Ythill seems to avoid game theory pretty strongly. For the record, I don't think -minor- game theory is a scumtell if it's balanced with game content; it's only if your main contributions to the thread are game theory that you're being evasive/scummy. In a related, yet separate tell, Ythill also posts various I'm-a-saint phrases, which is what was quoted by incognito. I should have separated the two a bit more, I need to work on the flow of my posts. They're a bit more like a bulleted list than a conversation. I don't like him being so grandiose; it feels like a gambit. Trying to build up the you-can-trust-me vibe. I've done it once or twice just from it being a natural tendency in conversations for me, and been called on it. This could also be the case for Ythill, but the sheer number of times he's doing it sets up a very clear pattern that one or two slips wouldn't produce.

Honestly with the updated view on his tunneling (Hopping player by player as a play style, instead of actual tunneling), the above is the main thrust of my case now, and as such, it's significantly weaker. The switch to Incognito is very interesting in particular, because of the previous avoidance. This could be seen as an over reaction, but I think it's again more of a play style thing. Ythill realized there was something wrong there, and as a bit of a perfectionist, he's zealously correcting the error.

In short...I'm really going to have to update my suspicions now. I'll do this soon, but for now: Welcome Kuribo!

[Shteven]

EBWOP: I screwed up the last quote block above. It was said by ChronX.

[Xtoxm]

@ Xtoxm: If you are town, watch your back on this. Your intentions may be entirely innocent but I do not believe Shteven’s are. Either way, you could tarnish your reputation here if you’re not careful.

Why did you say that? what does it mean?

That sounds just very manipulative to me...doesn't show good for you I don't think?

And what's my reputation anyway? I haven't even completed a game on this site yet

[Xtoxm]

Ok Ythill I promised to go back and find the stuff that made u look suspicious to me.

Anyone else want to take a stab at me before we move on to other matters?

This. And I also remember you saying somehting about having your go in the hotseat, but I couln't find the post.

I think those kind of statements sound like something mafia would would say.