Open 57 - Quack Mafia (Game Over) before 545

[Crub]

Vote Count:

Mastermind of Sin (3):

shaft.ed, Lulubelle, Oman

Phate (2):

Tarhalindur, Kuribo

Not Voting : Mastermind of Sin, TylerJ, Phate, LutenitPowwel

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: my second paragraph failed to state that Phate got two quick votes for his question

[kuribo]

Maybe we differ in opinion, I feel that Phate's idea of randomly using Quacks as townie murdering cops is far more damaging.

Anyway, I should point out that I don't know if I'm a Doc or a Quack. The guy I replaced wasn't around, so he didn't perform any night action.

It's hard, too, because if I'm not the remaining quack, then that means that a Quack protected Mafia last night and thinks they're a doc.

[Phate]

Kuribo, "Phate's idea" implies falsely that I suggested it, when I merely inquired about it.

[shaft.ed]

Maybe we differ in opinion, I feel that Phate's idea of randomly using Quacks as townie murdering cops is far more damaging.

This is simply false. Under almost any circumstance MoS's strategy equates to instant town loss. Phate's suggestion is risky but doesn't neccessarily mean a town loss and could out a scum. I still don't think he should do it, but it's at least a slightly viable play.

Anyway, I should point out that I don't know if I'm a Doc or a Quack. The guy I replaced wasn't around, so he didn't perform any night action.

It's hard, too, because if I'm not the remaining quack, then that means that a Quack protected Mafia last night and thinks they're a doc.

Really wish you had come out with this earlier in the day when we were discussing it. Why bring it up now btw?

[kuribo]

Really wish you had come out with this earlier in the day when we were discussing it. Why bring it up now btw?

Never occurred to me to mention it.

[shaft.ed]

OK everyone a little posting action would be appreciated.

Also I think it'd be best if Kuribo doesn't target anyone tonight as there's a decent chance he's a Quack and one of the other three "Quack's" is thus mafia. Since the extra NK could end the game it seems like the safe thing to do. Any thoughts on this?

[kuribo]

OK everyone a little posting action would be appreciated.

Also I think it'd be best if Kuribo doesn't target anyone tonight as there's a decent chance he's a Quack and one of the other three "Quack's" is thus mafia. Since the extra NK could end the game it seems like the safe thing to do. Any thoughts on this?

I agree. I won't target anyone.

We still run the danger that the last Quack targetted Mafia last night and thus thinks they're a doc.

[shaft.ed]

We still run the danger that the last Quack targetted Mafia last night and thus thinks they're a doc.

Yeah I'm not sure what to do about that one. We could play the night as vanilla, but that'd make it very easy for the mafia. Getting a Doc protect on the upcoming NK could be very helpful.

Maybe we could go with this: If we mislynch play as vanilla, if we lynch scum people that think they are Docs put in a protection.

This would mean:
If we mislynch we open the day tommorow at 4:3 LyLo, a Doc protect would get us 5:3 still LyLo or a Quack hit would get us end gamed at 3:3.

But if we lynch mafia we open the day tommorow at 5:2 with a NK, a Doc protect would put us at 6:2 an effective extra lynch, but a quack hit and a NK would be 4:2 LyLo. The small risk seems worth the possible reward here.

[TylerJ]

It was a good strateegy till you looked at the numbers. Then it just fell apart.

I'm finding a good place for my vote...

[shaft.ed]

Tyler could you please be a little more vague in your posts. There are multiple plans being talked about right now.

And this is the second straight time you have posted just to say you're not sure who to vote for. That's lurking in plain sight in my eyes.

[Lulubelle]

Also I think it'd be best if Kuribo doesn't target anyone tonight as there's a decent chance he's a Quack and one of the other three "Quack's" is thus mafia. Since the extra NK could end the game it seems like the safe thing to do. Any thoughts on this?

I'm not entirely sure that I agree. If we have indeed only identified two quacks, then it seems to me that are ways of minimizing the risk.

I was thinking about the best course of action for night two. What I came up with was the identified quacks not targetting (obviously) and the not-quacks all targeting another not-quack that they believe probably isn't scum. It is a bit of a gamble, and I haven't had the time nor inclination to run the numbers, but there seems to me to be a pretty decent chance to block both the possible unidentified quack kill as well as the mafia night kill so long as the doc protects hit docs. If Phate, Oman, and Tarhalindur indeed are the three quacks, then we have nothing to lose.

In any case, we really have no reason to believe that kuribo or anyone else that didn't get in a night action is the third quack over those of us that did. And speaking of that:

Unvote
Vote: TylerJ

Shaft.ed is on the money. I want to hear something concrete as well.

[Oman]

All quacks (you know who you are) DO NOT KILL!

Everyone else, protect anyone (quack or not) that you think is town.

[shaft.ed]

I agree with Oman. The problem with not protecting the Quacks LuLu is that the mafia then know who is unprotected and thus can certaintly garner a NK. If there is protection tonight it has to be totally unchoreographed and the people who know they are Quacks obviously shouldn't target.

[Lulubelle]

The problem with not protecting the Quacks LuLu is that the mafia then know who is unprotected and thus can certaintly garner a NK.

Hmm. Would the scum rather target an unprotected quack over a possibly protected doc? If we lynch town today then undoubtably so, but if we hit scum everything would change.

I suppose thinking too much more about this is pointless because an "ideal" protection scheme would at this point be both complex and random, and we didn't even quite pull off night one's "protect the person above you" scheme, no offense intended to anyone. Back to scumhunting then.

[Oman]

Would the scum rather target an unprotected quack over a possibly protected doc?

YES!

They only really need two town kills overnight, plus 1 mislynch in between them (this is if quacks don't target).

If you don't protect the quacks, thats three kills for free.

but if we hit scum everything would change.

I doubt it, they'll still go for a confirmed kill over a maybe.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoS that's a horribly idea.

If all of our Quacks are Quacks and they circle protect the game is over at 3:3 going into tommorow (this is ignoring a lynch today).

Even if one of the Quacks is scum and your plan "works" the Doc circle protect is entirely broken because the mafia can easily kill one of the Docs. This means BCS for your plan = 3 NK's if this follows a No Lynch it's game over, if it follows a mislynch it's game over, and if it follows a scum lynch it will be 3:2 LyLo where we know one scum for sure based on surviving Quacks, so in effect it will equal 3:1 going into N3 and thus I think a town win. Doesn't look like good odds to me.

Agreed. That's why I asked someone to look over the plan. Better to have suggested it and be shown wrong than not suggest it at all.

Vote MoS

We've just discussed that any 2 town deaths tonight is game over.

I'm going to pretend that you didn't read my post and therefore didn't see the part where I said I wasn't sure if we'd be endgaming ourselves by following the plan, because I hadn't had time to work out the numbers. Then I'm going to wait for you to actually read my post and unvote. Then I'm going to pretend you never did something that stupid.

Yeah discussion would be helpful. Have to say I'm not liking MoS's "plans" thus far. The second one was just blatantly not going to work. Not sure if scum would realistically try to get that to pass, but maybe he's just trying to demonstrate how bad his plans are in general.

I guess I'm still happy with my vote. But I must say I find it curious gets two quick votes for his question and MoS gets one a totally separate player for his much more damaging suggestion.

I typed it up on the fly, I admitted when I posted it that I had no idea whether it would work or not, but at least I made a suggestion. Apparently, unlike everyone else, I think plans should actually be discussed before they are put into action.

OK everyone a little posting action would be appreciated.

Also I think it'd be best if Kuribo doesn't target anyone tonight as there's a decent chance he's a Quack and one of the other three "Quack's" is thus mafia. Since the extra NK could end the game it seems like the safe thing to do. Any thoughts on this?

No, this is a horrible conclusion. Kuribo isn't much more likely to be a quack than anyone else. It's nearly as likely that the third quack targeted mafia, or that a dead person was a quack. We have no evidence on them, either, why are you not accounting for them? We should not reduce the number of protects that we have available to use. Since everyone is going to be protecting people they believe are protown, there should be an overlap in protects that will give us a good chance of keeping Kuribo (or anyone else) from killing on accident.

We still run the danger that the last Quack targetted Mafia last night and thus thinks they're a doc.

Yeah I'm not sure what to do about that one. We could play the night as vanilla, but that'd make it very easy for the mafia. Getting a Doc protect on the upcoming NK could be very helpful.

Maybe we could go with this: If we mislynch play as vanilla, if we lynch scum people that think they are Docs put in a protection.

This would mean:
If we mislynch we open the day tommorow at 4:3 LyLo, a Doc protect would get us 5:3 still LyLo or a Quack hit would get us end gamed at 3:3.

But if we lynch mafia we open the day tommorow at 5:2 with a NK, a Doc protect would put us at 6:2 an effective extra lynch, but a quack hit and a NK would be 4:2 LyLo. The small risk seems worth the possible reward here.

Hmm, putting it this way seems better. Despite guaranteeing that the scum can kill someone for free, we give ourselves another day. I think the chances that the third quack will get a kill off tonight is minimal, but is it worth the risk?

Oman, I think you should amend that statement.

Everyone who is not a quack, protect who you think the mafia will kill tonight

By telling them to protect who they think is protown, you allow the mafia to kill someone who looks scummy and get a guaranteed kill. By having everyone protect who they think will kill, that should spread out the protection so that mafia don't know who to kill, and they'll get caught in a WIFOM trap.

[Oman]

Okay MoS, I'll take that WIFOM trap.

GO GO DOCS!

[Tarhalindur]

Unvote

Quack, in this situation, reads; "You are a Cop. Each night, you may investigate one person. If they are town, they die." A power with a drawback, but still a power. I don't see how asking whether it's ever worth it to use is scummy.

It's not scummy to ask (though protecting as Quack *is* stupid - I protected as known Quack in the original Quack Mafia in a "protect correctly or lose" situation, and would have lost the game for the town singlehandedly if not for the successful Mafia kill the same night).

Then again, that's not why I voted for you (and if I had been voting you for the question, I would have tossed in commentary). Rather, I voted you for two unstated reasons:

1) You are, from my perspective, the most likely of the claimed Quacks to be Mafia (at this point, I have a town read on Oman, and I know that I am town, so...).
2) I was checking to see if anyone stepped out of their way to either further my seemingly poorly-reasoned attack (scum attacking an apparently vulnerable townie) or defend you (scumbuddy defense).

Shaft.ed's reaction to my vote is the most notable - he talks about theory instead of game events, then attacks kuribo and myself almost as an afterthoughts. That looks like a scum reaction to me - I need to take a second look at shaft.ed's other posts again and confirm my new scum read on him.

Vote: Shaft.ed, FoS: Phate

[shaft.ed]

Tarhalindur, I've got to disagree with you, my reaction was not scummy. I first reacted to Phate's suggestion becuase it is critical that we not have an extra NK this evening as combined with a mis-lynch that will endgame us. I then posted a correction to my earlier points. I had been thinking about this while off thread for quite some time and wanted to get it up in thread. Finally I pointed out that your and Kuribo's votes were suspicious,

Also I didn't state this above, but I didn't think Phate's post was considerably scummy and I think the votes could be seen as opprotunistic.

this is very far from attacking you as you state your vote was made to bait attacks.

2) I was checking to see if anyone stepped out of their way to either further my seemingly poorly-reasoned attack

Finally, it's strange to me that your "trap" also nabbed an opprotunistic voter in Kuribo, yet you failed to even mention this possibility.

FoS Tarlahindur

[Phate]

2) I was checking to see if anyone stepped out of their way to either further my seemingly poorly-reasoned attack (scum attacking an apparently vulnerable townie) or defend you (scumbuddy defense).

So if someone furthered your attack, they're scum, and if someone defended me, they're scum? It looks like the only way here to not be branded scum is to ignore the issue altogether - of course, then one would be called out for lurking.

[shaft.ed]

2) I was checking to see if anyone stepped out of their way to either further my seemingly poorly-reasoned attack (scum attacking an apparently vulnerable townie) or defend you (scumbuddy defense).

So if someone furthered your attack, they're scum, and if someone defended me, they're scum? It looks like the only way here to not be branded scum is to ignore the issue altogether - of course, then one would be called out for lurking.

And as noted Kuribo furthered the attack without any mention from Tar. Possible association noted.

[TylerJ]

Frogive my lack of posting. I am not lurking at all, I have just been gone. Play practice, school and work, plus helping roof a house the other day....

It isn't that I am wishy-washy either. sometimes you will find that I can be rash on my votes or hesitant, I have yet to find the balance.

Also forgive the lack of scumhunting as well, I will attempt to do so tommorow, I'm too exshausted today and just wanted to drop by before I was replaced.

[shaft.ed]

So...that game of mafia we were playing? Anyone?

Just to recap my thoughts. My number 1 suspect is MoS for his two failed strategies and his "OMG Why did you listen to me, FoS everyone" to start the day.

Not liking Tarlahindur's gambit just now, as Phate points out it basically would "catch scum" regardless of the response.

And Tyler, I guess I can belive your busy-ness, but has it been going on for the whole game? You've been heavily lurking, and only have to contributing posts in this game.

Crub any luck with the replacement?

[kuribo]

This game is going nowhere because people have dragged it into endless mafia theory.

Can we just hunt scum?