Newbie 549: (Game Over)

[Sir Tornado]

/confirm

[Sir Tornado]

bump

[Sir Tornado]

vote Russo

claim on page 1? tut tut :p

[Sir Tornado]

unvote

Sir Tornado, as the other IC, what do you think of the early votes?

Well, my vote on Russo wasn't a serious vote in anyway, as you can guess from the ":p" at the end of it. I am not liking PWIRL's vote on Russo, mainly because it was a third vote.

Casting second votes out of nowhere isn't bad at all, especially if it is on page one. It gets discussion started. I can't see the reason for a third vote, without much reasoning behind it, unless it is some kind of trap/tactic someone wants to try out, which doesn't seem to be the case with PWIRL.

so THAT is why putting a 2nd vote on is fine. I wasnt being serious asking for a claim, as i wouldnt ask for a claim either way, not in an open setup like this. But having a 2nd vote is no problem.

I know that. My reason for voting you was as serious as you asking for the claim.

In fact, if wizard somehow wasnt scum, then the scum lost their best opportunity in not quicklynching me.

You were on L-1 for a grand total of less than an hour.

Also, I do not really understand why you casted the third vote on Wizard.

[Sir Tornado]

Calm down Rosso.

[Sir Tornado]

I'm busy till Wednesday courtesy a robotics event. A few things to go by though:

1) Quick lynches do not help town by any means. A page 1 lynch is crazy.
2) I can't see how putting someone on L-1 is a definite proof for scuminess. I simply don't follow Rosso's logic here.
3) Even if we manage to establish that putting someone on -1 is pure scum behaviour, Rosso's argument that quick lynches do not allow scum to distance themselves is preposterous. You rely on scum behaving differently than town to catch scum in mafia. Not allowing the scumbuddy to react even if you are sure someone is scum is not really wise.
4) Sadly, this does not give us any indication to Rosso's own alignment. IIRC, Rosso plays like this generally.

Rosso, in newbie games, there are many people who get put on -1 early on. I don't think all of them come out to be scum. What makes you so sure that PWIRL is scum?

[Sir Tornado]

theres no townly reason to put someone at L-1

ever.

period.

90% or better are scum, as no newbie town would ever {as can be seen from the amount of "youre aggressive, you must be scum" being thrown around

Nonsense.

I can show you several newbie games where a townie has put people on -1 on day one/two. here is one example. I also remember reading this game with a page 1 lynch with townies casting the third and fourth vote.

Also, do you have any statistical data to back your 90% claim?

[Sir Tornado]

EBWOP:

I can show you several newbie games where a townie has put people on -1 on day one/two.

I mean

page

one/two

[Sir Tornado]

You ignored my post rather elegantly Rosso.

[Sir Tornado]

Can we have a vote count? I am a bit confused by exactly who is voting you. Alvinz seems to have 4 votes on him.

[Sir Tornado]

Ok. We need a cop claim. Here is how we should take this game further.

1) Cop claims, and he claims his investigation result. This gives us 2 confirmed townies (out of 5).

2) We proceed to lynch any one of the 3 other people. We lynch that person.

If the person we are lynching is the doctor, then he should claim at that point

.

2.1) We don't bandwagon the doctor before his claim and lynch a non doctor. We have thus 2 unconfirmed townies left in 4. On night 2, the doctor should protect the cop and the cop should investigate one of the two unconfirmed townies.

2.2) We bandwagon the doctor before his claim. He claims. We unvote and lynch someone else. At the same time, as long as the claim goes unopposed, we have 3 confirmed townies (out of 5). After lynching someone, we get 3 confirmed townies out of 4; which is a victory (the cop should, just to be sure investigate the unconfirmed townie and the doc should protect the cop at night)

2.3) We bandwagon the doctor and he claims. However, some twit decides to not believe the doctor claim and hammers the doctor. The doctor comes up doctor. We lynch the person who hammered the claimed doctor.

3) At any point, if we have 2 claims for the same role, one of them HAS to be scum.

[Sir Tornado]

attosai, of course the cop relies on the doc for his protection. How is that a major drawback?

You would expect the doc to atleast send his night choice, don't you?

[Sir Tornado]

He couldn't have investigated alvin because Alvin was already dead. If cop investigated blckknight, then he should still claim. It will make sure he gets at least one investigation tonight and gets the doc protect.

The doc, on the other hand shouldn't give any indication as to his role.

[Sir Tornado]

attosai, of course the cop relies on the doc for his protection. How is that a major drawback?

You would expect the doc to atleast send his night choice, don't you?

That's my point, the drawback is that the doc could become inactive over the night.

This is crap logic.

I am fairly certain that battousai is the second scum now. But I would still like a cop claim.

[Sir Tornado]

Ting, if cop investigated a living townie then the doc should claim as well, leaving only 2 unconfirmed people, one of whom we can lynch, and the other of whom we can lynch the next day if first one is town.

If the cop investigated blck then he should claim, followed by a doc claim. We thus get 3 unconfirmed. Lynch one, investigate another at night. Doc protects cop. We win.

There is zero chances of failure as long as:

1) All claims happen today (and thus we can catch a scum false claim)
2) Doc claims after the cop

[Sir Tornado]

This is precisely the weakness of PiE7 setup. Batt, if you think a cop claim is bad, I'd like to show you that I am not the only one who thinks this course of action is bad.

Check out this post in Open 20: Pie E7 from Patrick.

He states:

I will point out as I did in that game, that if we lynch the mafia roleblocker day 1, then scum fail to kill a powerole on night 1, we have a forced win via poweroles claiming and elimination. Such plans don't always work if the goon is lynched day 1 because the roleblocker can break up cop/doc combos. I don't think there's really much else to add, as "lynch mafia roleblocker on day 1" is a goal but hardly a strategy as such. Most of it is just common sense anyway.

[Sir Tornado]

What the hell? Cop, claim please.

[Sir Tornado]

Ok, Rosso, Bat, is either of you the cop?

[Sir Tornado]

Ok then. Doc claim please. (if someone wants to counterclaim Battousai, then now is the time to do so). Lack of counterclaim

on day 2

would be taken as confirmation of Battousai's claim. Don't even try to come up on D3 saying "Hey, I am the cop", because no one is going to believe the cop claim in Lynch of Lose situation.

[Sir Tornado]

Ok, does anyone have any counter claims?

[Sir Tornado]

That leaves just Rosso.

[Sir Tornado]

Rosso seems town and ting and battousai are both confirmed.

vote joan

ting make sure you protect battousai tonight if joan is town. Battousai, investigate me or Rosso if joan is town.

[Sir Tornado]

Someone hammer please.

[Sir Tornado]

Bah. The Day 2 was awful. It reminded me of watching a boring soccer match between 2 ultra defensive teams. It was more like an excercise in logic than a mafia game.

Still, as the head coaches of the above mentioned teams would say, it's result that matters.

[Sir Tornado]

Even if we lynch the goon and the roleblocker lives, the cop claiming in day 2 gives 2, or at the very least, one confirmed town. If he doesn't claim, we mislynch, and he gets nk'd night 2, that's no confirmed town, and day 3 lylo. He's guaranteed to die night 2 if he claims with the roleblocker alive, but he atleast narrows down the list.

If he has an innocent result, then he should totally claim. If doc is not dead, and the doc subsequently claims, you still get 3 confirmed roles (with luck, cop would not have investigated the doc) and thus bringing it down to 2 unconfirmed, one of whom is mafia RB (which is, btw, assured win for town). But this isn't fool proof, yet it is better than no claim scenario.

If a mislynch happens on day 1 and we have day 2 lylo, and assuming random numbers, we have a 1/5 chance of getting a scum. If the cop claims, and again assuming random numbers, that's a 1/4 chance of getting scum, 1/3 if he investigated a townie who didn't die in the night, and 1/1 if he investigated a scum. Assuming he investigated a scum, we have 1/2 chance of it being the roleblocker. The best case scenario of him investigating a scum and it being the roleblocker is 1/12. The worse case scenario of him dying in night 1 is 1/6. The scenario of him living through day 1, and dying in night 2 if he doesn't claim is 5/30, greater than 1/12.

If mislynch occurs, I would, as scum have mafia goon claim cop at some point before the real cop claims (if I am mafia). For some reason, people tend to believe claims more than counter claims (especially a claim with innocent result would be great here). Still, claiming cop at LyLo without a guilty is a bit risky. The town, being on LyLo can be panicky and can disbelieve your claim. I suppose, in the end, it depends on how well the cop has played on D1 (whether he is looking pro-town or not, etc). I think that plays a pretty important role in town believing or disbelieving a cop claim in LyLo. Had Battousai, for instance, claimed cop (legitimately in this game) at LyLo, I would probably have not believed him and could have perhaps gone on to mislynch him causing the town to lose the game.