Mini 551- Mod Abandoned
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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I went back and looked at SensFan's last "speaking" vote, and it was an S. I guess the mod's taking that as a Vote: SensFan. I think I would have laughed my a** off if he lynched himself trying to do that.
All these votes for a really far-fetched and annoying PR, which is probably faked. Not to mention dangerous. If I'm right about the Vote: S being a vote for himself, he voted ting and elias twice during that last mess. Least he's probably not going to accidentally dump a vote on Xyl.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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Really? That seems absolutely baffling. Why would a townie ever do that. The only times I've ever seen someone fake a PR were on the other site I play at, MTG Salvation, and both times it was scum (one of the guys pretended that he could only post in smilies and votes/FoS's, which was absolutely hilarious, but fake in the end, the other guy talked pirate talk, which was almost as annoying as this).CES wrote:Perhaps, but, unfortunately, townies fake PR's too all the time. Iunno why.
Anywho, a PR doesn't necessarily imply anything about alignment, but it does excuse a general lack of participation due to difficulty posting as well as making it more difficult to inquire into that individual due to the limited responses. It's not like we can expect a longer, analytical post out of SF.
Question: Can you talk in simply generic third person without "talking"? Like:Jerubbaal thinks SensFan's post restriction is really annoying and probably fake.
If not, what is the restriction on what you can say in third person and what you can't?<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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I haven't been at MTGS very long, the examples I cited are the ones which people seem to talk about the most. I read a little bit of one of the later Matrix Mafias, but I don't think it was the one in question. The others I haven't read.
Faking a PR=lying. LAL. This seems like a really solid line of reasoning to me, I don't know why we would compromise it simply because some townies are dumb and fake PRs. As CES has already pointed out, he's a liability, in that he cannot contribute to the same degree as the rest of the town is able. It honestly seems like win/win to me here. Get rid of a scum who's faking a PR, or get rid of a townie who's either dumb for faking a PR or significantly impaired in his ability to contribute toward discussion. Losing any townie is obviously a step in the wrong direction, but this whole thing seems like a very low risk/high value lynch.
All this being said, we should at least get a claim before we really push for the lynch.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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We're going to let the donk with the idiotic PR and really suspect claim off the hook? I absolutely do not approve. If he's scum, there's no way to test his results without lynching at least one townie, and that's assuming he gives us a guilty verdict. Merely assuming three scum, with no other killing/neutral roles, if we mislynch today and follow SensFan to a mislynch tomorrow, we're already in lylo. The strongest case today, by far, is on him, and I see absolutely no reason to pass it by.
There are a lot of people in this game who really need to step it up and actually post something or simply get out. Only about half of the players in this game are actually contributing.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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I am confused as hell about this spurt of attacks against CES. The likelihood of SF being scum isextremely[/e] high considering what's gone on so far. Ridiculous PR, almost certainly fabricated, transitions into a cop claim when the pressure really starts coming. A counterclaim right now only benefits scum, as they gain a huge advantage if they can lock down our cop early with a roleblocker, if one exists. We gain the virtue of being to protect him at the cost of there being a high probability that he's entirely useless. Bad trade.
CES isn't doing anything inappropriate, and at any rate, all the arguments against him hinge on SF being townie, which is incredibly unlikely. Honestly, they don't hold any water even if SF is townie, but you're all going to look really stupid tomorrow when we lynch SF and he comes up scum.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Pretty sure I'm already voting him. I'm happy lynching him whenever. The reasons you deride as such crappy reasons are pretty strong for a day 1 lynch. I'm extremely happy.
I've cleared up my connection issues here in Thailand, so I should be able to post on a more regular basis. I'll probably have less time for reading, but I'll try to keep up. We don't actually appear to be going anywhere new at the moment.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Yuck. I'm quite inclined to view this as a red herring, but I'm going to go back and read through Khel's other headings on vote counts (I'll admit I don't usually pay much attention to them) and see if there's any underlying pattern here.Khelvaster wrote:And more intrigue...Jesters and Saboteurs abound! Will SensFan emerge alive? Only time will tell...<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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I didn't find anything more interesting, although I might go back and try to figure out anything I can from Khel's errors. Not sure. It is very strange that Khel should be doing out speculation for us. I don't terribly appreciate the gesture. Everyone knows that jesters are absolutely terrible, and I don't know what a saboteur is as far as a mafia role, but he could be suggesting that SensFan's just a douche trying to tank the town.
Simply as my own opinion, the mod inserting such suggestions into the game, even though all my money is on them being a red herring, does not add much to the game and takes the game out of the hands of the players. End soapbox.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Sorry for the lack of posting, things in Thailand have been going well, but I have been quite busy.
I can't believe we're pushing away from SensFan. If everyone's so sure that he's going to get lynched tomorrow, why would you ever want to not lynch him today. If you want to test his results, you're going to have to follow them tomorrow (that's assuming he's not roleblocked, or doesn't claim that he's roleblocked, which he would be if the mafia knows he's town and has a roleblocker) to a very likely townie lynch, and then finally go back and lynch him.
The possibility of a roleblocker actually makes this a very safe claim. If he really is cop, he's going to get roleblocked every day from here on out. He doesn't need to provide any more information than a vanilla townie. If he's mafia, he's going to claim the same. I see no reliable test of his claim unless we get lucky and mafia doesn't have a roleblocker, especially no test of his claim which does not involve a lynch. This is not a long game, people. Assuming three scum and one kill a night, we only get three mislynches, and that optimistic. Passing on a very likely scum in favor of a confirmation plan which relies both on the mafia not having an rb and that will take at least two days is completely ludicrous.
There is no one else at this point I would be happy with lynching besides SF. The case on him is so much stronger than anyone else, doing otherwise would be simply silly.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Because this has come up a couple times, it's idiotic to suggest that the real cop (assuming SF is scum, which is quite likely) should spend an investigation on SF. The real cop is the only person in the thread who knows for certain whether SF is lying or not, that's a wasted investigation in every way. Dumb suggestion.
I am in no way trying to squelch discussion, but the fact that people are, in general, starting to acknowledge that SF is not the lynch for today is ridiculous. You don't get beautiful stuff like this day 1 very often (a cop with a [ridiculous] pr in a mini-normal [you honestly think that role shows up in this format?]). For a day 1 lynch, I think the odds are extremely high.
I don't think any of the cases on anyone else hold a significant amount of water at the moment. I haven't been doing a ton of reading lately, as I've been in Thailand, but I'll try to give everything a decent readover when I get back and see if there's actually anything reasonably solid in all this fluff.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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In order to determine the usefulness of SF's information, we will have to spend multiple days verifying it, not to mention the chance that he might just claim he was roleblocked (which he would be if the scum had an rb and he was actually the cop). If he claims roleblocked, we're having this same conversation again, exactly. If he claims a guilty, we have to follow him to a probable townie lynch to verify, and if he claims innocent, it could take 3 to 4 days to get anything useful.
Just to make sure I am understanding your last statement completely, SF, you are saying that you talked with Khel before the game and determined that voting in words was too "easy"?<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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Lovo, you have expressed desire to lynch SF and get on with things, is there a reason that your desire was not accompanied by a vote?
And seriously this is completely idiotic. SF's stupid PR (which is beyond unlikely in a mini-normal, seriously, go find me another mini-normal with a post restriction half as ornate as this, or even just a post restriction) is more than enough reason to lynch him on its own, without all the crap about his "convenient" cop claim or complete lack of participation so far. There is absolutely no freaking reason not to lynch him.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Oops, you're right, I read that you wanted to lynch sooner than later, but you didn't list SF as your desired target. My bad.
I'm not particularly interested in other sites, I'm interested in the way mini-normals are done on this site. I've read quite a few, and never seen a pr, much less one this ornate.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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Oho, this is kinda neato. I'm a roleblocker too. I'm beginning to see what Khel's got going here. There might be a way to break this setup, so I think we should mass-claim and I bet that we can set things up in a way that will help us narrow down who scum is. I'm betting good money that you can block the mafia NK. I have to go look over Khel's rules and all, but I'm working on a grand scheme of epic proportions. This might be the first setup I ever get a chance to completely break. Details to follow.
No one else should claim who they blocked. I think that's the key to figuring out this whole mess.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Circling should work alright, but reading Khel's description of how RBing works with the stack is going to make this rather difficult. Apparently RBers do block other RBers, but only in relation to roles with relevant night actions (like the SK used in the example, presumably, also mafia NKers). The fact that we have to calculate out from relevant action roles makes it nigh impossible to disentangle where those action roles actually are, since they are probably not going to claim (at least the one we're interested in, the mafia NKer, and I suppose the SK, if there is one in this setup. Could easily be, since we could have roleblocked them, as many of us as there are).
Khel, in defining how your RBs work, you reference "distance from the SK." Could you be a little clearer on how "distance" works in this case.
Also, to anyone who was blocked (or Khel, if he can tell us), do you recieve flavor indicating that you were blocked? If so, that helps us quite a bit.
Regardless, we should simply be able to look and see where the system falls apart, or the claims that people are making simply don't hold together.
Anyhow, I would support a massclaim at this point, from anyone who hasn't yet claimed. If we do have power roles out there beyond roleblockers, the field has already been sufficiently narrowed that the scum wouldn't have any trouble finding you as is.
As far as my blocks last night, I blocked Joubert. With his action yesterday, I thought the chances of him being scum were pretty high.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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That's kinda the point. If we can find the pattern in the roleblocks, then we can potentially figure out who is scum. I just want Khel to clarify on exactly how his whole confusing roleblock stack thingy works. It seems kinda arbitrary in the order it executes.ting =) wrote:I don't think that we should have posted our targets. At this point, scum could just fake-claim roleblocker and say that they blocked that person too.
Circular blocking won't work. By khel's rules in post 1, every other person at the end of a line ending with a non-roleblocker(fakeblocker or scum or vanilla) will not block.
Cavebear, I ended up deciding that we just need to get all the information out there and try to put it together into a composite picture. I do really think that a mass-claim is the absolute best thing for us at this moment.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Pairs should break this, as long as we don't end up pairing scum with scum or leaving the scum as the last man out. Simply based on this, I don't see how we can SF live. If I'm reading correctly, I don't think SF has even claimed his results from last night. If he was roleblocked (which he would be if the scum have RB's too and SF is the real cop), we won't have any current information from him. If we mislynch today, tomorrow is lylo, and the perfect position for SF to be in if he's a falseclaiming cop. We can't "test" his results - if we do, we lose the game, flat out, if SF is scum (which I think is extremely likely). Basically, no, I'm not willing to gamble our entire game on the extremely small chance that SF is a cop with a PR in a mini-normal. It seems ridiculous and useless in this scenario.
And anyway, if we decide that we can't take the chance to confirm his results, then he's actually more of a liability than a help. If he can't RB, there is a hole in the system. If he's going to stay around, he has to be the unpaired one. So yes, he's definitely the lynch today.
Vote: SF
I am slightly confused how you are 100% sure that Korts is not scum, CES. Looking through our blocking patterns from night 1, I don't think we really learn anything useful.
Also, we need a claim from Shanba, just to fill things in. If there is a missing link here, we need to figure out what to do with it.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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No, we're at 10 now, will be a 9 after lynch. If we lynch, we have an outlier, not if we no lynch. And of course scum could only kill if they were paired, unless of course SF were scum. And if we're planning on keeping SF around, then we can't pair him. It completely defeats the point, which leaves yet another person unpaired. We need to lynch someone, and it needs to be SF. You are basically setting up the equation SF=cop, we win v. SF=scum, we lose. I think the odds on that favor the scum heavily.Cavebear with a toothache wrote:If there's one person we could leave, it's probably SensFan, assuming we're going to use him to find scum, and assuming he can't block and investigate at the same time. That would imply that the prudent course of action is to lynch no one, as that leaves us with even pairs plus one (which would be SensFan), meaning scum would have to be paired up with each other to pull off a night kill. As a matter of fact, SensFan of all people should realize that.
SensFan, I do believe you should reveal your results from last night now.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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I actually like CES's pairings. I'm reading him as most likely to be town right now, mainly because of his comment about not being so sure about lovo coming up scum. At that point, the roleblocker thing wasn't out of the bag yet, and the comment reads exactly like, "I'm a roleblocker too, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's lying." Almost exactly the same thing with Korts.Cogito Ergo Scum wrote:I'm not condemning Joubert until we see lovo's dead body. He might very well be scum.
It's kinda funny, we actually got some hints because Khel gave us twilight for like a week that we might not have gotten if he was actually paying attention.Korts wrote:Actually, lovo, I'm a little surprised by your claim. I mean, you must be telling the truth, no need to lie anymore, so I'm not saying I doubt you, just, you know, surprised.
So anywho, I'd be completely fine with either CES or Korts as the odd man out.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Eh, and paint a big target on him for day 1 attention when he's effectively the only power role, that seems cruel and unusual. I don't find that it increases the likelihood of the PR at all. At this point, we basically have to decide whether to entrust the game to SF or not. If we entrust it to him and we're wrong, we lose, period. If we trust him and find a configuration which prevents NKs, we win. If we don't trust him, we still have a very strong chance of winning this game if we can lock down scum NKs. I am very simply not willing to trust SF with the entire game, so he goes.Imat wrote:I think you missed something very important here jerubbaal: This isn't a normal setup. With so many roleblockers, I actually find it likely that a Power Role of some other sort would have some distinguishing mark of some sort. So, in the end, probability in a normal game=close to none, probability in this setup=much, much higher.
And to Cavebear: We should probably lynch if we want this to work well.
And yes, we must lynch today. Not doing so only makes more holes for scum to squeeze through.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Agreed, SF needs to reveal, but I'm not entirely sure that it matters. No matter what he says, I still think he's the lynch for today. The decision revolving around him is whether or not we're willing to put the game in his hands, and I'm definitely not.
If everyone's so leery about CES making himself unpaired, we can put Korts as unpaired. I'd be fine with either of them being out.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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How in a million years is this the best plan? Seriously. He even claimed guilty on Joubert, got some disbelieving responses and changed it to me. How blind are you? He is literally the most blatant scum I have seen in a game of mafiaCogito Ergo Scum wrote:
Hmm.. That's much more likely to me, at least.SensFan wrote:Vote: O
Vote: O
Vote: P
Vote: S
Vote: J
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: U
Vote: G
Vote: U
Vote: I
Vote: L
Vote: T
Vote: Y
K, so we lynch Jerub. That'd leave 9 of us. 4 pair, with SF being the odd man out. Even though I still don't believe him, I guess this is the best course of action.
We also need a backup plan, for if Jerubbaal comes up town.EVER. There are not PRs in mini-normals. I have looked for one and never found one. This is a game full of roleblockers, so, of course, the mod's going to paint a big fat target to draw a claim from the actual cop day 1. Think!!
Plus, did you see how fast the train jumped off him when he was inches away from being lynched day 1 right on to lovo, who was obviously townie? You don't find anything suspicious about that? Even when he goes a fingers Joubert first and then realizes "Oh, I shouldn't bus my scumbuddy here, what sounds like Joubert.... oh, let's finger Jeru." You are all being so blind about this it's absolutely infuriating.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Yes, I'm pissed, because several of you idiots just jumped onboard immediately after SF claimed guilty on me. I think we've already proved that this town is prone to quicklynches. Stop being stupid and actually consider the situation here. You have absolutely no halfway decent reason to trust SF here. He's a scum, trying to get one townie lynch out of his crappy day 1 claim, which he somehow avoided getting lynched for despite the stupid, impossible PR IN A MINI-NORMAL. If you follow him to my lynch today, and the scum manage to get a kill in tonight, you go to lylo, and even though you get SF, you still have to hit scum twice in a row. Even if you manage to lock the NK down, your chances of winning this game are extremely slim, especially with the analytical "prowess" of this town. I don't trust you guys to win this when I'm gone, and this should be a game that we have no trouble winning. Yes, I'm pissed because you are all so willing to punt this. You punted day 1, now you're busily working at punting day 2.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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I really don't know what else to say. You weren't smart enough to lynch the false-claiming scum day 1, I don't know why I should assume that you would be now. Why should I be frustrated at all? Oh, maybe because Khel made this variant broken for the town, but you're going to give the scum about the only chance they have with a freebie lynch. With three of them, the odds of them getting an NK tonight is not insignificant, and then you're in lylo the rest of the way, all because you were willing to buy the stupid false claim that he's a POST RESTRICTED COP IN A MINI-NORMAL!
All you are doing is playing so that, if SF is cop, we win, if SF is scum, we lose. All this is ignoring the convenient little point that, if SF were cop, he would be dead right now. The scum have absolutely no reason not to kill him.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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I do have a page on the wiki with all my games linked, for the curious minded. I think it's been updated semi-recently.
If there were equal chances of both SF or myself being scum, then the position you're advocating actually makes some sense. I'm just completely floored that you actually consider that to be the case. Have any of you ever found another PR in a mini-normal, much less one which would paint a giant target on effectively the only power role in a game? Or the quick jump from SF's wagon to lovo's? SF is quite literally the most blatant scum that I have ever seen in a day 1 ever, period, end of story. Read the thread, and stop being idiots.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Ick, two very lousy suggestions from Xyl. No lynch is not an option. If SF goes unpaired, there will be an NK, and we will simply be back tomorrow with more useless information which gets us nowhere and one more dead townie. SF needs to die today, there is no other plan I will approve of.
As far as pairings go, we need to use what we know to make the best pairings we can. I feel very strongly about CES and Korts being town, so I would nominate either of them to set the pairings for the night. I want one of them to be unpaired (which is the highest risk position) and the other to be paired with one of the more suspicious characters. I'll be pretty much cleared after we lynch SF, so same here. We'll just have to work the other pairings out as best we can.
Despite feeling very strongly that Korts is town, I think CES is better at this, so I think he should set out the pairings. If it would still your beating hearts, set out another set of pairings in the case that I'm lying, but you won't need them.
@Shanba - I am not being egotistical or short-sighted at all. Day 1, this town proved to me how unable they were to see what is right in front of their eyes. There is a decent chance that my lynch today will put us in lylo, and even once you lynch SF, all it takes is one mislynch or mispair to lose the game, and you have essentially no information.
We need information to win this game, and by lynching SF today instead of giving him a free lynch, we get the space we need to acquire such information. Even if the other 2 scum get miraculously paired up tonight, we still have 6 townies to 2 scum, instead of 4 townies to 2 scum. That's an extremely significant margin when we have the potential to stop NKs. The chances that we lose this game if I get lynched are quite high.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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QFTCogito Ergo Scum wrote:No-lynch: Bad idea, we're not at lylo, and I don't want two unpaired people for tonight.
Randomly pair: Again, bad idea. As Shanba and I already pointed out, there's information to go off before we pair.
Korts: You're paranoid.
As far as pairings, I see us as having three nearly confirmed townies once we lynch SF - CES, Korts, and myself. Of these three, one should be the odd man out, and the other two should be paired with the most suspicious remaining players. The top two players on my list are Joubert, for the errant hammer day 1, and Xyl, for the suggestion about no-lynch as well as the late bandwagon switch day 1. No-lynch only benefits scum at this point. Shanba's pretty close for agreeing with the no-lynch, but Xyl and Joubert are my top two. The rest are similarly iffy, no very strong reads.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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I agree that, if the odds of me being scum were the same as SF being scum, that you have more to lose by lynching the claimed cop, but in the situation we're in, it's simply preposterous not to lynch him today. Do actually read the thread and deal with the information we have at our disposal. The odds are far from equal. Do I have to say it again - PR IN A MINI-NORMAL DOES NOT HAPPEN. Period. Honestly, I'm going to spend some time looking through the rules and see if it's even permitted.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Um, I'm pretty sure we're all roleblockers, except the mafia (presumably). Just for the record, you're all assuming that you can completely lock out the mafia NK for good. Unless you plan on stopping lynching, the scenario is going to change every day when someone dies. Hopefully, we can keep things so that the scum don't NK, but there won't be a stasis. We don't have a cop, so keeping everything in stasis is not a desirable outcome.ting =) wrote:I'm willing to believe it actually. As it is, more than HALF the players are town roleblockers. That alone makes the town powerful, especially since we ended up finding out right after day 1. At the moment, we as the town already have the power to permanently whack the mafia nk ability.
It only makes sense that if we have any other role, like a cop, he'd have to be at some sort of disadvantage. The town would be way over powered otherwise.Heck, even cop-less we're already more powerful than town in other games.
Also, just to bring up an old argument, SF as scum would have no reason to fake a PR. As it is, it pushed him to the spotlight and made him the easy day 1 lynch. Not a very good job as scum if he really is scum.
Also, just some speculation on the setup, but a cop would be completely broken in this scenario. Ting's bolded quote above is completely true. Khel already made this scenario more breakable than it probably should be, giving the town the ability to completely turn off the scum NK, but a living cop in stasis is auto-win for the town (and no, a PR would not negate this advantage). Khel didn't do this. I haven't been hugely impressed with his modding job here, but he's not stupid.
I sent an email to MeMe asking if PRs are permitted in mini-normal games. After combing the wiki, the definition of a mini-normal is "Games of twelve players or less, without special themes or game mechanics." Looking over the list for roles approved in normals, nothing is every mentioned about PRs. The way you define normals is that anything outside these guidelines of approved roles makes it a theme game. A PR is definitely outside the usual guidelines. I'll give the official answer when I get it back from MeMe.
You all need to actually think about this more deeply than "OMG, we're lynching a claimed cop!!!" This is why I advocated lynching him day 1 - testing him requires lynching someone else day 1 (who was a townie) and then testing his (of course) guilty results day 2 by lynching a townie. So yay, we finally get him day 3 when he should have been so completely dead day 1.
Do you really think that SF would do a good job as scum? Seriously, look at his posting so far. He's not the brightest bulb in the box.
I actually have an interesting question for Khel - What will happen in the event that we refuse to lynch and the scum NK is turned off? Will that actually be a draw?<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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A PR is a game-mechanic, however you want to color it. It influences an individual's ability to post, and potentially carries with it the danger of being modkilled. So yes, I would say that it qualifies as a non-standard mechanic. I'm still waiting on the response from MeMe.
I would tend to agree with you, Xyl. This seems more experimental than normals are supposed to be. Regardless, I'd like to get a solid ruling on the PR thing.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Ok, apparently they are permitted, but I still don't see how such a PR actually functions in this game. The intricacy of the claimed PR certainly doesn't keep the "fanciness to a minimum." Regardless, the odds of a cop being in this game are precisely zero. It's already broken enough, Khel wouldn't completely break it.MeMe wrote:
Yes -- a couple of more "interesting" roles are permitted, just keep the fanciness to a minimum and make sure you don't write in a theme to go with your restriction.jerubbaal wrote:Are post restrictions permitted in mini-normal games?<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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I'm getting really, really sick of posting the same thing over and over again. Do any of you actually read the thread? The PR SF has claimed is an entirely useless one in this setup. Khel is trying something rather experimental here, he's not going to screw around bastard-modding us as well. Adding a cop does completely break the scenario, and if the scum had a counter to the cop, it would have been used night 1. There is absolutely no reasonable scenario in which SF could be cop and this still be even a remotely balanced game.
Actually, I had not thought of it before, but if we lynch SF, we've basically won. There are two remaining scum, and three fairly confirmed townies (Korts, CES, and myself). From there we can just lynch the unconfirmeds and get all the scum, if we can successfully lock down the kill. Plus, if a kill does occur, it won't be difficult at all to deduce where it came from and, as long as we keep a confirmed townie in the loose spot, we'll be fine.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Korts, both you and CES made comments which alluded to a counter-claim after lovo's lynch, it makes me very confident that you are both town.
And once we lynch SF, I'd like to think that I'd be on the list of confirmed-ish townies. It should be easy to see why bussing a scumbuddy is auto-lose for SF as scum. If I were scum and got lynched, even though it would "confirm" SF for the meantime, as soon as one of his "guilty" verdicts led to a townie lynch, he would go too. It's the absolute surest way to lose this game as scum. So yes, I'm pretty sure I'm confirmed after this, as long as you guys aren't idiots and actually follow SF's verdict.
And a PR would have absolutely no function in this scenario whatsoever. It doesn't add to the quality of the game at all, so yes, it would just be in here to screw with us.
Yes, there are ways to make the cop less, like the whole GF thing, but you still fail to acknowledge that SF would be dead if he were actually the cop. Also, this is clearly an experimental game. Khel is trying out the all-roleblockers thing. As has been said before, the ability to lock down the scum kill is already a huge advantage for the town, very much on par with the normal balance for 12 people, perhaps even skewed slightly to the town's side with just RBs. Adding a cop breaks it in half.
Just look at the numbers for nightless. That's probably the nearest analogy to this scenario. There are always more scum to account for the loss of the NK (consider 12 man mountainous as the base-line, 2 scum and 10 townies, balancing works outward from there).<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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It is so not WIFOM that you're not dead or blocked SF. You claimed cop, you're completely unconfirmed, scum would kill you if they had a chance. ESPECIALLY if they had any inkling what this scenario was about (as Khel has alluded that they might, as the unimpressive mod-job continues), you would be dead quicker than you could think. Claiming WIFOM is the quickest way to turn off accusations that actually hold water.
Oh, and take a gander at who's on the "lynch Jeru" train, a bunch of newbies who I spent most of the last day trashing. Oh, I wonder if there's some OMGUS going on here. Oh, wow, the only player with his head not up his *** (CES) actually supports lynching SF. Did this same train of people quicklynch lovo day 1 for absolutely no reason? No, they wouldn't. Scum never quicklynch anyone, especially newbscum.
Seriously, does anyone actually have a reason for wanting to lynch me other than "SF claimed cop!!!!1111oneoneone"?<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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The last one does not occur, I'm not scum. If you lynch me, you get 1 town for 1 scum, which would be a great deal in a normal game. However, all you're doing is letting him get a free lynch from his crappy claim and moving the scum one step more towards winning a normally unwinnable scenario for them. If we lynch SF, we have 3 confirmed townies and 2 scum, it shouldn't be too difficult to shut down the NK with that information, and we can just lynch all the unconfirmeds and win from there. We don't need a cop to break this scenario, it's broken already. Khel would not double-break it.Imat wrote:SF claiming Cop is the only reason. If SF is Cop, and we lynch him, than it'll be awhile before we end this game, blocked NK and all. Somewhere over 5 Days, I'd think, because it'd take us that long to overcome our fear of ruining a good Role blocking setup. So no, nobody has any reason besides SF claiming Cop.
But you're missing the point. If we lynch you and you turn Town, we'll lynch SF. If we lynch you and you turn Scum, we've still got a Cop. The beauty comes in the relative safety of night. With a good blocking pairs setup, we can, hopefully, prevent the NK. With that in mind, lynching a Townie to reveal Scum or lynching Scum and keeping Cop beats your plan, lynching potential Cop for Investigated Scum. Trade-offs: 1 Town for 1 Scum, 1 Scum for 0 Cop, 1 Cop for 1 Scum. The last one is unacceptable, yet you keep pushing for it. Its a relatively sound plan, more so than yours by far.
You are right, insofar as the potential rewards of lynching the claimed guilty would usually be greater than the potential rewards of lynching the claimed cop. However, this assumes entirely that the odds of me being scum and SF being scum are the same, and I can't believe you're all so blind that you can look at the thread and honestly tell me that that's the case. Yes, I have been very abrasive today, but this game is frustrating the heck out of me and I can't believe this town is playing so badly. This scenario should be a town win, absolutely no question, but it's not going to be so if you keep playing this way and refusing to actually read people accurately. SF is scum, you're going to go down to 6-2, if all goes well, and you will have no more assistance in finding scum from any source but actually reading the comments posted. I do not think you can win in that scenario, especially if CES gets killed at any point. In the best scenario, you're playing 6-2 nightless, kind of a crapshoot. In the worst scenario, you're playing 6-2 mountainous, which means we lose.
Read the thread, and tell me honestly if you think SF has as much of a chance to be cop as I have to be town.
Tell me honestly if you think he has a 20% chance to be town. Even 10% is being darn gracious with the way he's posted so far.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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Wow, Korts, you're taking this confirmed townie thing a little too far. Just because you're confirmed(ish) doesn't mean you're smart. If you can't read CES's posting after lovo's lynch and see the same thing that other people are claiming in yours, you're simply blind. The point that CES may have figured out what was going earlier than everyone else is a valid point, while I'm not sure Korts is quite bright enough to figure it out that quickly. I would consider Korts more confirmed, but that doesn't mean that placing the game in his hands is a smart move.
On another matter, SF hasn't posted in almost a week. I think a prod is in order.
On yet another matter, why don't I make the pairings for the situation in which I come up town. You all can futz around all you want about the other set, but I don't think I'm being overly arrogant to call myself somewhat more experienced and perceptive than Korts, and if you're dumb enough to go through with my lynch, I'll be 100% confirmed going into night, so you can trust my pairings.
Korts unpaired
CES - SF
Shanba-Xyl
Joubert-Ting
Imat-Cavebear
Imat-Cavebear is the one which makes the most nervous, because we have essentially nothing leaning either way for either of them, but I think these are probably the strongest pairings going into night. Frankly, it's going to be somewhat of a relief to be out of this game.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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It's only the correct play if you still refuse to see how the odds of SF being town are absolutely nil. I'm glad someone is actually still reading the thread, though, instead of just blindly following this "oh gosh, we can't lynch a claimed cop" line of thinking.
Korts, just because I think you're extremely misguided doesn't have anything to do with me thinking that you're town or scum. You are the most confirmed townie. I'd prefer that you were a bit more responsible with that power though.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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I for one am somewhat glad of the inactivity as well. If you guys all clear your heads from this emotional mess with SF, you should be able to realize how terrible his claim, play, and PR are and how much we should simply lynch him and move on. Once we lynch him, we're down to two scum, keep a confirmed-ish townie in the clear spot, and then we wont' have any trouble at all isolating the last couple scum. We have three confirmed townies, if we use them well, we really can't lose. Just lynch all the unconfirmeds.
Please, be willing to admit that inexperience with the game is a very significant factor in this town and let clearer heads prevail. If I'm dead, even once SF gets lynched, I am not confident that you can win this scenario, especially if CES gets killed somewhere along the way. I do not want to lose this game, as we absolutely should not lose, by any measure.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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jerubbaal Goon
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I object, obviously. I do think you should be spending this downtime reviewing the thread, doing some meta, and deciding if your opinions actually hold any water, which, ATM, I don't see. You are all being extremely lazy/biased just because I've been a jerk today, I suggest you grow up and play the game.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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If you ignore behavior and "just" act on result without considering how reasonable that action is, you're giving scum the optimal play for their position. We lynch me, then tomorrow you lynch SF, and we're down to just two confirmed townies and we're essentially in nightless mountainous from there on out. Our chances are good from there, but it's not auto-win. If I'm still alive, we have 3 confirmed townies and it is auto-win.
Think about it, it's auto win either way, if you lynch the right man. We gain nothing by a cop (another reason for his role simply to not be here). Which do you honestly think is more likely, that SF is scum or that I'm scum? Be smart about it, because it's not such a biased decision as you all want to think it is. You just have to be right and we win.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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But the cop part is useless. It's really all about choosing who's not the scum here, not the cop claim (despite the fact that everyone else is ignoring this). Our only task today is to figure out who's scum, me or you (the answer's certainly easy for me). I think it's pretty blatant, and most other people have even conceded that point, but they're scared because of the whole cop claim thing. I am not letting you manage two townie lynches out of your terrible fake PR and claim, it's absolutely ridiculous.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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It's not logical, you're not looking at the facts. Fact is we win if we lynch scum (SF). Fact is we don't auto win if you lynch me first and then SF. Fact is there is no chance of a PR being in a mini-normal. Think, if we have 3 confirmed townies, a supressed nightkill, and 2 scum, town wins, period. The value of a cop role in this situation is precisely nothing. Zilch. It's just another reason why Khel wouldn't include it.
You're honestly expecting me to focus on someone other than SF? He is scum, period, I am not lynching anyone else, period.
In case people are having trouble reading: COP DOES NOT HELP A TOWN WIN HERE!!!
I'm not saying that the odds are he isn't a cop, I'm saying he's not. The thought of a scenario with a PR restricted cop, all roleblockers, one of which happens to be a secret miller, is absolutely and certifiably absurd.<><-
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jerubbaal Goon
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