The Someone2 Wagon (D1)
A sneak preview of suspicion against S2 begins in 59. LML says S2’s case against Lowell is flawed, while also pointing out that it is too strong for an FoS. S2 enters an OMGUS defense, Stree quotes LML and votes. BMQ erroneously declares that S2 is the lynch for the day, to which Claus (the “actual” lynch) replies with a heavy case against S2. The defense against this is promted by D_O, posted adequately by S2, and assisted by HS who rebuts the original LML accusations. Stree unvotes. S2 announces a vacation and the votes drop off.
S2 stumbles back into the spotlight during the peak of the Lowell wagon, posting his infamous #162, in which he makes the bulk of scumtells still held against him today. These include The Slip (one scum left), exaggerating the information potential of a lynch, unvoting Lowell while declaring suspicion against him, and attributing that unvote to an opinion of “town readiness” apparently at odds with his earlier take on the subject (provided tacitly by his L-1 vote). Each of these "tells" has a reasonable explanation that allows S2's alignment to be town. I treat this post separately because it is the crux of much to come.
CTD points out The Slip, S2 corrects himself, CTD morphs the attack and they spar. Meanwhile, LML and Lowell cite The Slip, jumping on the wagon. D_O and Rite do the same but with a F/HoS. The CTD vs. S2 discussion has dismissed The Slip by #174 and the attack has morphed into a bevy of accusations coming from a few directions, but The Slip is still cited heavily. S2 defends himself well, assisted by Rite, Rishi, and Kurbio. Lowell says we need a better wagon and hops off. Ibby mentions The Slip as a tell but later votes for unrelated reasons. Through it all, the wagon hovers around 2-4 votes until the second deadline is posted.
Ibby recruits Seta and pushes the wagon with Kurbio’s help. S2 has posted another defense but he’s getting hit from many directions and becomes more of a topic than a participant. Seta plays devil’s advocate to the wagon and Rishi openly argues against it. CTD doesn’t get involved. A vote count reveals the Core of the wagon (CTD, Ibby, Seta). Lowell, Rishi, and Rite jump on, referencing the deadline; CTD pushes the wagon; Seta asks for a claim at the appropriate time. D1 ends with S2 @ L-1 and no lynch.
The Someone2 Wagon (D2)
Ibby is dead, but the rest of the Core starts right in on S2. They gain few votes at first but support gathers from DGB (the new LML), D_O, and Vaugn. S2 makes some strong defenses himself. His allies include kurbio and Rishi. The latter incites Seta, who leaves her wagon momentarily to jab at him. Vaugn hopped off momentarily for a joke, but has been pushing the wagon pretty hard.
Thok finds S2 scummy out of the gate and RW joins him. Seta jumps back on. She asks S2 for suspicions and he delivers them; notable that two of his Core attackers are listed as town. Thok turns his suspicion to a vote and Vaugn shouts “S2 is scum” all the way to the gallows. The day ends with a pointless twilight vote change from Thok, which struck me as odd.
The Someone2 Wagon (D3)
One of S2’s defenders has been killed by the mafia. Yes, he was a claimed power role but a claimed tracker is arguably more useful to the mafia than he is to town, at least for a couple of days.
Thok starts the wagon right back up. Seta cheerleads him before jumping back on with bulldozer attacks. Rishi has stopped speaking in S2’s defense but Thesp has taken his place, albeit less aggressively. Claus became a strong supporter of S2 for awhile (vote with a case, two confirms on vote) and Lowell slipped in a jab.
I announce S2 as MotR and accuse Seta of tunneling, becoming enmeshed in the Thesp vs. Seta debate. The game lags. Claus withdraws his support based on a reread, shifting to the RW wagon with an extensive case.
Conclusions
It intrigues me when I see continuity in the actions of a role across replacements. Claus attacks S2 heavily in the preview (in a way that could be a defensive move vs. BMQ); CTD is the most vocal and stubborn D1 supporter of an S2 lynch; Claus re-replaces to attack S2 heavily on D3. A similar tangent occurs with LML/DGB/Thok, though the attacks are less aggressive. I would understand these patterns if S2 had dropped a smoking gun but he hasn’t.
Most of the tells on S2 are questionable or have been extensively explained. This has required the attacks of long-time supporters to morph. His wagon has been controversial since its inception, meaning that people have been arguing reasonably against it. Two of his defenders were confirmed town, the rest have been varied enough that calling them all scumbuddies isn’t plausible.
Other than the deadline votes it garnered on D1, S2’s lynch has been called for loudly by a stubborn few. Of them, Ibby and Vaugn were confirmed town and I think at least one other must be town because scum are unlikely to push so hard by themselves.
Claus eleventh-hour drop-off has made his actions here seem even more suspect and, since my read on him has been town, I’m going to have to rethink my global perceptions to grok this.
The responses to S2’s #162 should be examined carefully. What nobody explained about The Slip was that making assumptions about the number of mafia (even without the language debacle) is usually a non-tell that can draw opportunism from the scum and cause overreaction from townies. Here, the language explanation makes the tell even less reliable, yet the large majority of the D1 attacks against S2 take a position regarding The Slip and either cite it directly or are based on other tells from #162.
In brief: The Slip drew attention to S2 and, in the paranoid state of mafia play, attention quickly turned into suspicion. Differentiating between those who fell victim to this dynamic and those who based manipulations on it should give us a pretty accurate picture of whom to lynch.
