Mini 508- Trouble in New Catania-Game Over

[Thesp]

Does anyone see a compelling reason to lynch anyone but Thok?

[Ythill]

Does anyone see a compelling reason to lynch anyone but Thok?

Not offhand, but compelling is a strong word. You infer that you

do

have compelling reason(s) to lynch Thok. Will you state/consolidate/reiterate your case?

I am starting my reread of RW. Analysis to follow. I will vote when I post it.

[Thesp]

Does anyone see a compelling reason to lynch anyone but Thok?

Not offhand, but compelling is a strong word. You infer that you

do

have compelling reason(s) to lynch Thok. Will you state/consolidate/reiterate your case?

I am starting my reread of RW. Analysis to follow. I will vote when I post it.

Yeah, RossWilliams basically did squat.

[Claus]

Hello!

Right now, I would agree with a thok lynch.

But I'd like to re-read the game again a little first.

[Ythill]

Sorry this took so long. Taking care of my son takes priority.

Isolated Re-read of D_O and RW

(all post #s refer to isolation with oldest first)

This role has some peculiar habits. Five players are attacked: Beastly/Seta, Lowell, kurbio (town), S2, and HS/Vaugn (town). Only Lowell was defended, only rite/thesp was cheerleaded. Lowell is heavily coached; S2 is included in that coaching on one occasion. Other than these, the only players mentioned are Claus/CTD, stree/me, and Rishi (town). That leaves LML/Thok, BMQ/Ibby (town) who were never referred to.

Neither D_O nor RW was high-content and there’s not much of a paper trail. No scum-list gambit post. There are some patterns though.

D_O defends Lowell early (#2 & 3), pushes his wagon at L-1 (#5), teeters (#6), and then works toward a defense of Lowell (#7, 8, 14), pushing the S2 wagon instead (#9, 10, 12, 13). His S2 “suspicions” are more permanent (#15). He coaches Lowell twice (#4 & 11), the most telling instance (#4) has been quoted below.

From RW’s entrance, I’d assume the mod didn’t let him PM his buddies during replacement. He comes out with immediate coaching for Lowell (#1, quoted below). He spends most of his posts attacking now-confirmed townies and defending himself, which tells us nothing. But he does coach Lowell again (#7), seems very interested in my opinion of S2 (#15), and in a rare twist of character, sets up an appeal to authority by requesting that thesp post suspicions (#8).

Some Coaching Quotes

I would actually agree with you if you actually posted more reason against them then "I think", but your post looked from another angle also strikes me as a bit of a scum tell with just a name list and no reasons.

If you can actually answer why Streeflo and Kuribo are scum in your view people would actually consider your views but atm it just looks like a distant statement with close to no meaning behind it.

So atm Im thinking you maybe scum Lowell.

Here D_O explains to his buddy how to build better cases against a townie and an unknown (though I know I’m town) and says that he’ll help push a more convincing case. He also warns his buddy, who is dropping too many scumtells. D_O coaches Lowell on one other occasion.

I feel like Lowell is a big blustery bag of wind, and maybe the same goes to someone2. It takes a silly scum to get as big a target as both of them have. But then again, maybe they are silly scum.

Using faulty logic, RW dismisses the idea that Lowell is scum while subtly warning him that a bus is coming if he doesn’t clean up his act. He slips S2 into the equation, perhaps to dilute the statement. He coaches Lowell on one other occasion.

Conclusions

D_O was a think-on-your-feet kind of guy, taking advantage of opportunities and dealing with problem situations when they came up. He went to great lengths to derail the Lowell wagon. His suspicions of Lowell were transitory, applied only when they suited him. His attacks against S2 were more prolonged.

RW was a more calculating player. This is evidenced by what I believe was a willful frame-up of thesp. I think RW noticed D_O’s trail of evidence and tried to clean it up by continuing to coach Lowell but from a more aggressive stance and by slipping S2 in as another red herring. His concern about my opinion of S2 served the dual purpose of increasing that smokescreen and distracting from parts of the wagon analysis that found him scummy.

Remember, I think Lowell is scummy based on his own actions, but a reread of D-O/RW makes this possibility even more viable. I

do

think that Thok is scum but I believe that Lowell is the better play for today for two reasons. (1) Several players have found Lowell hard to read. We should lynch him now, when LYLO isn’t a possibility, both to remove the LYLO/VI argument from his defenses and because I think there is a slightly higher chance of mislynch here. (2) If Lowell does come up scum, it provides even more evidence against Thok, but I don’t know that the inverse is true.

vote: Lowell

[Lowell]

Sorry didn't realize day was back. No, lynching Lowell is the wrong move.

I'm going to look back through the end of yesterday. I don't like how lynching Ross was like pulling teeth.

[Thok]

Does anyone see a compelling reason to lynch anyone but Thok?

The fact that RW did absolutely nothing to defend himself, even though he theoretically had a role to claim. That screams that RW was letting himself get bussed to make his partners look better.

Looking over how the RW wagon happened, I'm going with a

vote Thesp

. He didn't jump on RW immediately day 2, despite having suspicions of him coming from the Vaughn mislynch; he only voted on RW after a someone2 wagon started forming.

Thesp/someone2 actually make a good scum pair to my mind, give how the bandwagons happened yesterday.

[Claus]

Lowell, you are such a persuasive player. I don't feel like lynching you just because of that.

Ythill, thanks for taking the time to do all that analysis. I'm finding myself not really inspired by this game, but that might actually be influence of RL right now. So I'll put my current thoughts on the table.

These thoughts are not backed up by a new re-read.

S2 - after my last re-read, I've pretty much given up my S2-scum theory.

Lowell - a "lynch Lowell while we're not at lylo" is not a bad idea, but the fact that Ythill suggested it, and the way that he suggested it has ringed my bells a little.

Thok - I agree that thok feels scummy. I think thok feels scummier than lowell, and I would be less nervous about a thok lynch than a lowell lynch right now.

Thesp - For some reason, my first impression when I replaced back into the game is that thesp was slightly scum. But after two re-reads since then, I cannot see where I got that impression from. I need to keep better notes. :-/

Ythill - I was set on a S2 lynch, but Ythill's comments yesterday made me re-read the game, and re-evaluate that position. Sorry if it sounds scummy to you, Ythill, but I just realized I was wrong.

One thing bothers me though, is that Ythill is so set that Thok and Lowell are scum - even though I agree with him. I played one other game with Ythill, and he was more open to other possibilities. Then again, I know I get paranoid when things start looking too good to be true.

Ythill, suppose you are wrong about Lowell - who would you be looking at to be Thok's partner? Or would that reduce the possibility of Thokscum to you?

Setael - Come back here Set! I could use your second opinion


This game needs more care and loving.

[Claus]

Whops, Almost forgot. I don't like to sit around without a vote:

vote: Thok

[Thesp]

Does anyone see a compelling reason to lynch anyone but Thok?

The fact that RW did absolutely nothing to defend himself, even though he theoretically had a role to claim. That screams that RW was letting himself get bussed to make his partners look better.

Looking over how the RW wagon happened, I'm going with a vote Thesp. He didn't jump on RW immediately day 2, despite having suspicions of him coming from the Vaughn mislynch; he only voted on RW after a someone2 wagon started forming.

Thesp/someone2 actually make a good scum pair to my mind, give how the bandwagons happened yesterday.

Actually, I was thinking that you made sense as a RossWilliam scumpartner, seeing that you claimed passing acceptance of the wagon on him, but actively pushed someone2 as RossWilliam was taking heat. You were uncharacteristically quiet during the whole RossWilliam bandwagon. I also am uncertain as to how RossWilliam's poor play "screams that [he] was letting himself get bussed to make his partners look better", rather than RW was making a poor tactical play, which seems far more likely.

Super happy with my vote.

[Claus]

Super happy with my vote.

What vote?

[Thesp]

Super happy with my vote.

What vote?

Oops.

Vote: Thok.

[Thok]

You were uncharacteristically quiet during the whole RossWilliam bandwagon. I also am uncertain as to how RossWilliam's poor play "screams that [he] was letting himself get bussed to make his partners look better", rather than RW was making a poor tactical play, which seems far more likely.

Super happy with my vote.

If by uncharacteristically quiet you mean not posting at all, because I wasn't paying that much attention to this game, then yes I wasn't. However, I think anybody who actually bothers to meta me would notice that I very rarely pass up a chance to directly bus a person in an obvious bussing situation.

There's also no compelling reason why Someone2 and RW couldn't both be scum together. I've given various things in my post 368 on why I thought someone2 was suspicious.

I'll also note that Ibby's main comments on her suspicions were for Rishi, someone2, and kuribo, which someone2 being the primary target of her votes and that ibaesha had to be killed night 1 for some reason.

[Ythill]

a "lynch Lowell while we're not at lylo" is not a bad idea, but the fact that Ythill suggested it, and the way that he suggested it has ringed my bells a little.

What about the way I suggested it was suspicious?

One thing bothers me though, is that Ythill is so set that Thok and Lowell are scum - even though I agree with him. I played one other game with Ythill, and he was more open to other possibilities.

In that other game my suspicions changed organically over the course of many posts. Here, I've been doing deeper rereads on, for the most part, the same static information that I replaced into. As I see new evidence or counter-evidence to what I've found, my opinions may very well change.

Ythill, suppose you are wrong about Lowell - who would you be looking at to be Thok's partner? Or would that reduce the possibility of Thokscum to you?

Lowell being town would cancel one scumtell Thok's dropped but, considering who is left alive, it wouldn't clear him altogether. As for other scumpartners, I haven't carefully considered interactions or whatnot, but I'd look deeper at Seta, S2, and Claus (in that order) if Lowell came up town.

BTW: Thok's recent posts are a little dodgy, eh? When accused of using suspicion of S2 to distract from a RW lynch, he uses suspicion of S2 to distract from his own. I'm not

against

lynching Thok but there's no need to hurry. I'll keep my vote parked on Lowell as another option for now. I wonder how long it will be before Lowell votes Thok...

[The Fonz]

Votecount brought to you by Drugs- the official snackfood of the music industry!

Lowell 1 (Ythill)
Thesp 1 (Thok)
Thok 2 (Claus, Thesp)

Not voting: Someone2, Setael, Thesp

With seven alive, it is four to lynch.

[Setael]

I need to reread.

I've only played with Thok as town and his play was nothing like this - he was very active and was scum hunter champ. Has anyone played with him as scum before?

[Lowell]

I need to reread.

I've only played with Thok as town and his play was nothing like this - he was very active and was scum hunter champ. Has anyone played with him as scum before?

This is a stupid question. If you want to meta him, do it yourself.

FOS Satael

. So you know, there is literally nothing else to my case against her. But this post feels wrong.

I forget, what was everyone's thought on a massclaim?

[Ythill]

I forget, what was everyone's thought on a massclaim?

My thought on this matter is:

confirm vote: Lowell.

[Lowell]

Yes. Very articulate.

No, but really, can someone rational answer the question, please?

[Thok]

I forget, what was everyone's thought on a massclaim?

It's sort of pointless right now. We've already had two dead power roles (one investigative), and there's clear evidence that we don't have a doc.

[Setael]

Lowell, I'm trying to find time to reread THIS game, which means I'm definitely lacking time to read Thok's OTHER games. Is it really so awful to ask if anyone's played with him as scum? That attempt to throw suspicion at me was quite a stretch.

[Claus]

I can't see the benefit of a mass claim now.

[Claus]

a "lynch Lowell while we're not at lylo" is not a bad idea, but the fact that Ythill suggested it, and the way that he suggested it has ringed my bells a little.

What about the way I suggested it was suspicious?

The fact that you so certain that they are the two scum remaining, and don't seem to be worried about other possibilities.

Ythill, suppose you are wrong about Lowell

Lowell being town would cancel one scumtell Thok's dropped but, considering who is left alive, it wouldn't clear him altogether. As for other scumpartners, I haven't carefully considered interactions or whatnot, but I'd look deeper at Seta, S2, and Claus (in that order) if Lowell came up town.

Why do you put me as less scummy than S2? I thought you were pretty sure of him as town?

That said,

BTW: Thok's recent posts are a little dodgy, eh?

Agreed.

[Ythill]

Why do you put me as less scummy than S2? I thought you were pretty sure of him as town?

Initially, I had S2 @ MotR and you as certain town. Examining the S2 wagon made me doubt some of the cases against him but didn't really improve him far from MotR. Meanwhile, you've only made one questionable action since my read and I'm not sure it changes my mind about you; under the right circumstances, your action might change my view of S2.

Also, realize that we are talking about a prioritized list of who I think is Thok's scumbuddy if the people above are town. If not Lowell, then probably Seta because she has been teaming up with him on the S2 wagon. If not her (because she is town) then it has to be S2 or you. Given Lowell and Seta as town and Thok as scum, I would suspect S2 over you.

I'm becoming more convinced that Thesp is town and I know that I am, which is why we weren't included. And yes, I'm aware that somebody's probably going to say Thesp and I are scumbuddies now. Whatever.

But this whole hypothetical list is silly. Thok and Lowell are our scum. That is my theory.

[Thesp]

I forget, what was everyone's thought on a massclaim?

My thought on this matter is: confirm vote: Lowell.

I think scum are less likely to suggest a massclaim at this point, personally. If you think Thok and Lowell are our scums, why not lynch Thok first?

I'm against massclaim right now.