Mafia 75: Return of the Mafia! TOWN WINS (really late)

[Lloyd]

armlx, I disagree with your assessment of "which is exactly the same as most people".

Looking at the vote count archive, Van Damien vote-hopped throughout the first 175 posts, more than anyone else.

If someone else vote-hopped with the same frequency, then I missed it.

When I filter the game by his posts ("Display posts ... by ..." at bottom of this web page), Van Damien seems to be jumping from one player to the next.

Even though he's currently voting for Charity, he's made two recent posts wanting to vote for thenextepsiode next.

You currently have your top 4 suspects, and I have my top suspect, and they aren't the same people. We probably won't agree / be on the same bandwagon until a deadline appears and one of us change our minds.

[Nemesis]

jesus christ...can we please quit talking about who we think are town?!? It paints a target and really helps no one but scum!

I disagree with this completely.

other than getting a stance Day one where people are to use later in a reread...how does the telling who we think are most likely town helping anyone but mafia? A concenus of a town player, lets the mafia know who to eliminate, keeping the scummiest players around to confuse the town.

Other than the reason you've mentioned, it can can generate discussion, it asks people for reasoning so it can make someone seem scummy or pro-town, the scum doing it would be interesing, it helps us generate a well reasoned bandwagon, etc.

The only reason it is bad is the one you've listed, and I'd be surprised if there arn't claims before the end of the day, so factor those in, factor

people

the scum want to kill in, factor in all the other things and the lists and the lists don't look that bad.

The scum are the informed minority, they really wouldn't benefit from the lists as much as we would. Besides, if they really cared then they could probably read through the thread and find the people most people think are pro-town anyway.

Then,

if

the scum want to target someone on the list, they then have to worry about whether a doc would protect the obvious choices and have those kind of thoughts.

So what happens if, say, the Mafia doesn't eliminate that player... does he or she become a suspect by default, and thus loses their 'townie' status?

No, nothing happens to the person's status. All that this line of thought will do is result in WIFOM and other non-helpful things. Chances are that the most pro-town people will do things themselves that change people's opinions of them.

I don't think outing as a townie is that bad, not like everyone will believe you.

If you are saying that as town, making a list of townies and thus giving a townie a status of appearing to be pro-town isn't bad because people won't believe you, you have missed the point.

It's not about whether scum believe you, they already know who the scum are. It's about them killing one of the most trusted townies.

Your word choice is a little odd. Surely the only town role that knows whether someone is town or not is a mason that has had their partner mod-confirmed. (A cop wouldn't be sure of their sanity yet, and we're already down a cop.)

So why did you use the word "believe"? Surely you don't actually know alignments yourself...

People are questioning Battle Mage, he's answered all of the questions adequately, and he's still under suspicion.

I don't like that.

Well he's a miller, despite fielding questions pretty well, there's always going to be suspicion on him. I expect him to be vigged fairly soon anyway, so I'm not that bothered about his lynch at present.

I suggested Jester because its a dangerous role, however we can't worry about a Jester until we have some sort of proof of that. As Townies, our only power as a group is the lynch, so having a role that reverses that into a negative causes me to hold my tongue. However, I find it unlikely that Jester's are played often (I wouldn't really know, just guessing based on other comments). Therefore I disregarded my statement. I think, while the chance is there, the odds of having a Jester in this game are minimal and therefore we can vote, not so much safely, but more securely.

There shouldn't be a Jester in this game. The only time I'd worry about one is if a role cop or simular tells me there 100% is a Jester in the game. Until then I'm not going to worry about one.

Because you can never disregard a role completely, thats just a bad move in general. So I'm saying we should realize that there is the possibility, however unlikely, of a Jester, but that we can't let that stop us from trying to find the real killers here.

Even if you think there is a possibility of a Jester being in the game, what are you going to do differently?

-----

Sorry, I missed a few days and had quite a lot to respond to. Also, I may be around slightly less as I'm getting a new laptop set up in the next couple of days. (You probably won't notice it, but if you do, that's why.)

[VanDamien]

Let's see - my 4 voes so far:

Matt_S - random
andersonw - for trying to excuse future scummy actions on being new.
Matt_S - for his reaction to my vote on andersonw
Charity - for flat out refusing to participate.

And yes, I was leaning towards a thenextepsiode vote, and might still find myself there, but I'm happy with my Charity vote for now, since I voted her for this:

I guess I should wait like everyone else.

and she follows that gem up with this:

I really don't know who to vote for. It's kinda hard to decide.

But Lloyd, if you want to vote for me for voting for who I find scummy or where I feel the need to apply a little pressure then by all means, do. But please then explain to us why you feel doing so is scummy.

[oEJo]

I agree.

Vote: Charity

[armlx]

armlx, I disagree with your assessment of "which is exactly the same as most people".

Looking at the vote count archive, Van Damien vote-hopped throughout the first 175 posts, more than anyone else.

If someone else vote-hopped with the same frequency, then I missed it.

When I filter the game by his posts ("Display posts ... by ..." at bottom of this web page), Van Damien seems to be jumping from one player to the next.

Even though he's currently voting for Charity, he's made two recent posts wanting to vote for thenextepsiode next.

You currently have your top 4 suspects, and I have my top suspect, and they aren't the same people. We probably won't agree / be on the same bandwagon until a deadline appears and one of us change our minds.

I didn't realize he replaced in just looking at his posts. His first vote was towards the end of the random process, and his second looked random at first glance. I can see where you are coming from now that I realized that, but I still tink my top 4 are scummier.

[Khelvaster]

I agree.

Vote: Charity

Vote: oEJo

Not only did you vote without contributing, you voted based on a totally worthless premise. If you come up scum, you've linked yourself completely with VanDamien. I expect we have two scum in the bag here.

[armlx]

oEJo now moves on par with Incognito on my scum list. I can excuse the first attempt at poor logic voting as him trying to progress the game, but this too just looks like him trying to push dumb wagons.

[Khelvaster]

The fact that oEJo associated himself with VanDamien puts him even higher on the list, IMO. This is an extremely common scum tactic for getting two votes on someone: One scum makes a crap argument, the other says, "I agree...vote:XXX"

[RossWilliam]

i think the Charity votes are kinda silly. I don't think she's scum, she's probably just lazy. oEJo, if you aren't scum, you should have known better than to support a foolish notion like that without providing your own feedback. It's like showing your work on a math test, you don't do it, the teacher thinks you cheated.

vote: oEJo

[armlx]

Waiting for oEJo's response before possibly changing my vote.

[Battle Mage]

so basically either

BM is lying scum and is claiming miller to avoid investigations

or

BM is telling the truth, he's basically vanilla, but there's always going to be that uncertainty about him, and scum will try to play on that to get him lynched at a crucial moment


Am I missing something or is this the situation? If this is the case I may switch my vote to BM, because I don't see much of a down side.

Thats actually about 66% correct. There's an option C that he had some kind of role on top of miller thats exactly the same as option B otherwise.

This is a surprisingly perceptive post. It isnt especially a town-tell, but it shows me that you are thinking objectively at least. Of course, it also raises the question of, Why the hell are you voting for me, if you think this is a possibility?
Im seeing hypocrisy here....

BM

I am voting you because I believe you fall under option A, rather than B or C. The 66% wasn't referring to your case, but instead the fact WhoMe? had found 2/3 of the realistic possibilities.

Im not getting this. Why exactly are you sure i dont have an additional role of some sort?

First, I believe that the estimated gain from lynching you is higher than the estimated loss. The gain from lynching you as lying scum is far greater than the loss from lynching you as town miller and visa versa, less gain for you living as town miller compared to loss of you living as mafia with claim.

That greatly depends on your answer to the above question.

Second, given your behavior I'm leaning that you are more likely scum safe claiming based on a metagame.

A scum safe-claim of Miller? WTF is SAFE about that?
But yeh, i agree i could potentially be using the meta on me, to confirm my innocence, as i dont do ballsy moves as scum, and i could be trying something different. Thats WIFOM, and a null-tell, but if u use ur common sense, its more likely a town tell.

The auto-clear thing is in regards to miller being unclearable by cop. B/c you claimed miller should not mean we accept you as town, as there's no realistic way to assure you are.

Equally, it doesnt mean you should accept me as scum automatically. its a two way street, and again, this is not a reason for a vote.

If someone who legitimately is a lot scummier than you are shows up, I'm willing to lynch them over you. However, at this point in time you are definitely the best lynch, and thus my vote stands until it is needed elsewhere.

Now, heres the thing. I can just about understand a townie keeping his vote on me for now. A misguided townie, but nonetheless well meaning. But what i dont get is why, on page 12, you are willing to declare that you are prepared to lynch someone solely because they claimed a non-power-role, even though you cant point out one scummy action on their part...

Dont think i havent got my eye on you. If you are town, read this carefully.

BM

[armlx]

I'm not convinced you don't have an additional role. I'm just more convinced its more probably that you don't or (specifically) are scum. The scum thing mainly comes from your first interaction with Nemesis, which I felt was absurd yet phrase well enough to garner support from less logical people and mainly following the oEJo started wagon, which is what the top 3 scummy people on my list did (You, oEJo, Incognito). Also the circumstances of your claim seem odd to me, but I'm going to have to think how to exactly qualify what I mean by this.

Scum safe claim of miller: How many people doubted you besides me? One, two? You see my point? (By safe claim I don't mean a mod granted one, but a role people believe to be confirmed as pro-town ie. scum claiming doctor + people not dying one night and no counterclaim). As for WIFOM being a null-tell.... I'm not so sure on that, though your claim is only a WIFOM on the metagame level.

I'm not auto accepting you as scum. I unvoted you after real discussion started and actually scummy people started to appear and revoted after you pinged my scumdar on top of my early suspicions. Just based on this, I'ld probably have you top 3 on my scuminess list with Incognito and oEJo, but combined with the miller claim I'm willing to put you ahead of them.

I'm fairly sure I enumerated my reasons why you were scummy in the post I voted you BTW. If they weren't clear enough, I'm sorry to cause confusion which prevented you from responding in a more apt manner to my points.

[skitzer]

I find Nanosuromo's lynch setup scummy only because there are other people suspicious of BM, so singling one out is not effective.

FoS: Nanosauromo

[Matt_S]

My opinion on Lloyd: He has an odd standard for what's considered vote hopping. I haven't seen anything that I'd consider vote hopping by VanDamien, but of course everyone has different perceptions.

My opinion on oEJo: I think votes require a little more than an "I agree" to go with them at this point in the game. Some are saying that was scum association, but I'm not suspicious of VanDamien at the moment, so it seems like a stretch.

My opinion on scum lists and townie lists: I don't see how it does much more than what votes and FoSes do. Plus people brought up the WIFOM for scum killing the good townies. I don't see it as being helpful, but I don't see suggesting it as being scummy.

My opinion on the continued Battle Mage thing: WIFOM. There's nothing more to it than that, but I don't see a miller claim as being more pro-scum than pro-town, which is me drinking that wine. There's more WIFOM around every corner.

My opinion on the Jester talk: I'd prefer we avoid discussing the possibility until someone appears to be one.

My opinion on people saying I'm useful: I work better under pressure, and not much has been going on lately so I'm not doing anything groundbreaking.

In summary, I want to hear more from some of the people under suspicion before I change my vote.

[Incognito]

Okay, I think I'm just about caught up.

armlx, I've got a few questions for you related to your stance on Battle Mage. Your stance seems to be that because Battle Mage has claimed the role of Miller and we have no verifiable, fool-proof way of determining whether or not he's telling the truth, he should be lynched at some point in the game. Let's suppose Battle Mage does an exceptionally good job at what he has listed as one of his interests in his profile: scum hunting. Do you think he still would be a good candidate for the lynch?

*Bonus point* Why or why not?

Nemesis and Antithesis, I've liked your contributions to the game so far but I've noticed that neither of you are currently voting. Where do your suspicions lie at this point in the game?

EJ, I'd like to lend my voice to others and ask you to explain your vote on Charity.

thenextepisode, while I've appreciated your increase in contribution since votes were placed on you, is there any reason you've chosen to FoS skitzer as opposed to vote for him?

[thenextepisode]

because that's just my style, i don't vote early.

[Imat]

My opinion on the Jester talk: I'd prefer we avoid discussing the possibility until someone appears to be one.

Exactly what I was trying to get at, I was just hounded for moving to slowly in that direction. Anyways, Lloyd has somewhat redeemed himself in my eyes, so I believe I'll need much more concrete evidence before voting again...As long as we're out of this random voting stage, that is.

[armlx]

armlx, I've got a few questions for you related to your stance on Battle Mage. Your stance seems to be that because Battle Mage has claimed the role of Miller and we have no verifiable, fool-proof way of determining whether or not he's telling the truth, he should be lynched at some point in the game. Let's suppose Battle Mage does an exceptionally good job at what he has listed as one of his interests in his profile: scum hunting. Do you think he still would be a good candidate for the lynch?

*Bonus point* Why or why not?

Yes, he is still a good choice for the lynch. He is still acting scummy on top of the claim. Other people could become better choices however, and definitely had he not acted just as scummy as those people have so far I would be 100% in favor of putting off his lynch for a later day under the understanding it has to happen eventually. However, like I said, it's pretty much to the point where I'ld be voting him regardless of calling his WIFOM.

[Khelvaster]

FoS: Armlix

Battle Mage is scummy in all his games. He tends to be a lightning rod for scum to start BWs on.

[Imat]

Just a question, which may or may not be better put in another part of the forum, what does FoS stand for? The S is probably Scum, but I can't figure out the rest...

[Incognito]

armlx, I've got a few questions for you related to your stance on Battle Mage. Your stance seems to be that because Battle Mage has claimed the role of Miller and we have no verifiable, fool-proof way of determining whether or not he's telling the truth, he should be lynched at some point in the game. Let's suppose Battle Mage does an exceptionally good job at what he has listed as one of his interests in his profile: scum hunting. Do you think he still would be a good candidate for the lynch?

*Bonus point* Why or why not?

Yes, he is still a good choice for the lynch. He is still acting scummy on top of the claim. Other people could become better choices however, and definitely had he not acted just as scummy as those people have so far I would be 100% in favor of putting off his lynch for a later day under the understanding it has to happen eventually. However, like I said, it's pretty much to the point where I'ld be voting him regardless of calling his WIFOM.

armlx, you say that you're in favor of putting off his lynch for a later day as though you have some additional knowledge or something. Let's suppose that Battle Mage's miller claim is truthful. What makes you think he will last long enough that his lynch will likely be inevitable? Don't you think the scum would most likely take out someone who has confirmed himself/herself to be a townie?

[armlx]

FoS: Armlix

Battle Mage is scummy in all his games. He tends to be a lightning rod for scum to start BWs on.

He is? From what I had heard about him second hand he seemed like a far too well respected player for me to assume he would get repeatedly wagoned for being scummy.

[Incognito]

Just a question, which may or may not be better put in another part of the forum, what does FoS stand for? The S is probably Scum, but I can't figure out the rest...

FoS stands for "finger of suspicion". It doesn't

really

count for anything but it's used by a person to imply that he/she finds the person he/she is FoS-ing suspicious. In this case, Khelvaster finds armlx suspicious but he's not ready to vote for him yet (if at all) so he's giving him the FoS instead.

[Imat]

Ah, I see. Well, thats something I haven't picked up from the other forums...

[RossWilliam]

the wikipedia contains all this information