Mini 546: House Mafia - Game Over

[Albert B. Rampage]

New guy, you got 24 hours to post before you're replaced.

[TrustGossip]

did I say that was my only reason?

Did you give any indication that it wasn't?

[curiouskarmadog]

did I say that was my only reason?

Did you give any indication that it wasn't?

when do yo plan to read the thread?

[Erg0]

@ Erg0: I seriously fail to see why armix and I are now best buddies. My unfos was because I believed his opinion. He wasn't really on my radar because I was much more focused on the other team and Erg0 and Dean Harper inspired more suspicion in my heart than armix did. I am being honest.
If your whole case is based on my incorrect value judgment of armix, then I suggest you find a different angle. Then again, I I still don't really mind the attention all that much. As soon as people find the target of "bilateral action against the common enemy" (in Pooky's words) we can move onto diagnostic. I have stated repeatedly that I do not mind being this person. Instead of needlessly analyzing me in a period where votes don't weigh as much as in the latter stage, just vote me already.

You're still missing the point. It's not the unFoS that's suspicious, it's the fact that you switched in your later post and said that you were ok with armlx being lynched. I'm not suspicious of you because you were wrong, I'm suspicious of you because you suddenly switched to supporting the lynch of someone who turned out to be scum. This suggests that you knew his alignment and wanted to make yourself look good (or less bad) when he was lynched.

[shaft.ed]

So pooky given our recent exchange, has pretty much everything you've posted then been to watch for reactions and none of it "genuine" outside of you vollkan case?

[vollkan]

Erg0 to armlx

9: Casts a vote for armlx over the hamster contradiction.
40: Points out, in contrast to what armlx said, that Beep was aware of the mechanics about team voting.
~~~~~~~~~~~
That's it for Erg0 mentioning armlx. This total lack of mention prompted me to do a rough meta of Erg0's scum play to see whether he is a "distancer" or an "avoider". In Open 33, where Erg0 was scum with SSF, he only mentioned SSF in one game post and cast a random vote for SSF as well. In Mini 493 he engaged in distancing. He didn't mention his buddy in Open 51, but that was a short Texas Justice game. So, basically, I don't think that Erg0's total non-mention of armlx is necesarily a link-tell, but I also don't think it detracts from that possibility.

TrustGossip to armlx

2: Weak FoS attack on armlx for "his vacillation of whether or not he wanted to bandwagon me" (the hamster affair I assume). He also throws FoSes on Dean (for junk posts) and Adel (team-based BWing). Given that TG does the same for Dean and Adel, I am not going to say the treatment of armlx looks like distancing, but I don't rule it out either.
6: TG FoSes TJM, shaft.ed, vollkan and IGMEOYs armlx. His reasons for armlx are the weakest (he wants armlx to clarify his findings)
12: Neutral with no "good read"
18: "Doesn't understand" why armlx is accusing Adel of following him. This sentence confuses me: "I still don't really understand why you're even making these arguments though, Adel isn't exactly your direct competition of a lynch candidate." @TG: What did you mean by "direct competition of a lynch candidate"?
29: Thinks that armlx is "barnacle-y" and places a "Heavy FoS" on armlx, contigent on lurkers not being "horrendously suspicious".
33: Questions Armlx and Adel in conjunction
35: UnFoSes after armlx posts content and actually agrees with armlx on CKD. It's interesting that the "Heavy FoS" dissipates just because of a content posting. - when the basis for the FoS was armix being barnacle-y
43: Now he flips around, without explanation, and "wouldn't mind Armix going".
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Right, we've had TG making kidglove attacks on armlx and others early on. Then he goes neutral. Then he beefs it up to a "Heavy fos" for barnacle-y play, which he then drops once armlx posts content and, in fact, agrees with in pursuit of CKD. Then he flips round again and says he wouldn't mind armlx going. I agree with Erg0 that "This rings alarm bells for me."

curiouskarmadog to armlx

9: Says he understands arm's vote for him, but doesn't like Adel's following
10: Questions arm abotu Adel's following
11: Notes "armix and Adel voting partnership "
12: Notes that the partnership happens again.
14: "vote armix on an ongoing hunch."
19: His hunch on arm is getting stronger, particularly given arm's last vote (no further explanation given)
22: "vote armix"
36: Calls on armlx to explain the over-reaction charge
37: Pushes back hard against arm for using the"over-reaction" attack
38 : ditto
41: Again. Very strong - demands armlx point to evidence
49: Again, calls on armlx to supply evidence rather than basic assertion
50: Says armlx must be scum for voting ckd without commenting on the posts by Beep
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This really does look genuine. Armlx was pushing against CKD for atrocious reasons, and CKD bit back with some pretty harsh attacks against arm's reasoning. It "could" be high-level bussing - but there's nothing to suggest that is the case so for now, I'm going to call it a genuine retaliation by a townie against crap attacks from a scumbag.

Dean Harper, Thanatos to armlx

*crickets*

PookyTheMagicalBear to armlx

33: "Armlx=total scum. "
~~~~~~~~~~~
Given that this is Pooky, a single mention like this is basically impossible to glean anything from.

Adel to armlx

14: Follows armlx onto CKD
25: And onto shaft.ed
34: Votes armlx. no explanation
44: Is certain that armlx is not a "logically-challenged" player of the type she believes TJM to be
49: Revotes armlx since Albert missed the last one
51: Calls to lynch armlx
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Scant on reasoning, but she was following CKD's suspicion of armlx. Doesn't give me a whiff of distancing, so my assumption is that it was genuine. Still, she's conceivable as scum, but nothing here actually positively makes this likely.

shaft.ed to armlx

12: Includes armlx in a "not liking so far" list along with Adel and TJM
26: Attacks armlx's play as being "much like Pooky". Also asks armlx to compare his own play to TJM's (armlx was moving them closer suspicion-wise) and shaft.ed says TJM has been the more erratic. This looks like trying to attack Pooky and armlx together,
29: Isn't a fan of "Pooky or armlx" but thinks this might be due to bias as recipient of their attacks.
33: Says armlx is looking scummy "pretending to mimic Adel's strategy when he really didn't" (I don't understand this) and that scum getting L-1 and L-2 confused tend to act less rationally (evidence?).
34: Has Pooky and armlx tied in top place. Suspicion of armlx stems from only a few minor things: the not wanting to join a 3 BW, making firm alignment decs early without clear explanation to my questioning and his "joining in with Pooky". It's actually interesting that the attacks against pooky seem much stronger (given Pooky's total lack of content at that point and fanning of flames) - but he keeps them tied. It's like he wanted to be seen to be suspecting the two at an equal level when, in fact, he was pushing more firmly against Pooky.
38: Would like to lynch Pooky or armlx
~~~~~~~~~~
The main problem here for me is that suspicion of armlx is pretty much tethered to suspicion of Pooky. Largely, shaft.ed pushed much more against Pooky than armlx, though his reasons for attacking Pooky were good. I think that there is certainly more potential for distancing here than, say, CKD or Adel, but is less than for TG.

[Claus]

A replacement for Thanatos should be arriving in the thread shortly.


...


I guess his chair is cursed or something.

[curiouskarmadog]

thanks claus

[shaft.ed]

TG, you've mentioned that you don't mind being the guy that is sent to L-1 in order to get to the twist phase. You aren't the least bit afraid you might get hammered by someone before a mod checks in to send the game into the twist?


And thanks Claus

[Near]

catching scum, obviously.

But if you're too busy killing me, that's a wasted lynch. Since it's in the best interests of the town for the townies to be alive, self preservation/damage control has to be somewhere on my priority list, right?

Oh, really?

Anyways, I didn't initially vote for pooky because it would look like votehopping, which it basically was.

Now, if

catching scum

is "obviously" a higher priority, as you have just declared it to be, it really begs the question as to why you didn't vote Pooky initially.

If you genuinely believed Pooky to be scum, then (by your own admission) you should have voted Pooky rather than worrying about your own welfare. In reality, you only voted Pooky

after

some pressure was brought to bear on you for not voting, proving that your main concern was actually your own survival.

In other words,

Unvote (if I am...), Vote: TheJiveMachine

Hey guys. I am a new doctor replacing Thantos. I am trying to catch up the conversation, pretty much skimmed through first 9 pages or so, but this post I felt like I wanted to respond to.

Basically I disagree with volkan. Many times, you should balance self-perservation vs. voting for a guy you think is a scum. Especially in the beginning of the game, you might have some clues as to who you think is a scum, and maybe your guess is better than random, but often times you are wrong. We lynch on the first night, not always because we are "pretty sure" but because we have to - and we make the best guess. So, I don't think Jive's posts are in conflict with each other.

It's true that hindsight is 20/20, but looking back Jive's candidness on the reason why he didn't vote for pooky (which was less than "honorable") would have lead me to think that he's not a scum.

Anyway. Nice to meet you!

[TrustGossip]

TG, you've mentioned that you don't mind being the guy that is sent to L-1 in order to get to the twist phase. You aren't the least bit afraid you might get hammered by someone before a mod checks in to send the game into the twist?


And thanks Claus

I would be lying to say I wouldn't mind being hammered, because this is the most enjoyable game I'm in by far. However, at the time being I'm the most "pro-armix" player it seems. I agreed with this opinion, and extended a certain level of trust. If my lynch would improve the chances of town deducing the correct person on Day Three, of course I wouldn't mind.

@ Erg0: I don't really see how "not minding" an armix lynch is really that much of an issue. Like I said, I really wasn't focused on armix at all, because he was on my own team. During Day One I suspected everyone on my own team far more than the other team, and CDK was simply the most aberrant out of the five at the time I began my arguments against him. My comments towards armix were appropriately cursory, I jabbed at a lot of people yesterday.

@ cdk: It's difficult to do a complete re-read when I'm verbally sparring with 3+ people. My last exam is on Thursday, perhaps it will come then. I'm trying to post as much "content" without the egregious time requirement of a full re-read. I know this won't satisfy you, but perhaps it will placate you for a few days.

[curiouskarmadog]

Well then, dont ask stupid questions until you have.

[TrustGossip]

TrustGossip to armlx

2: Weak FoS attack on armlx for "his vacillation of whether or not he wanted to bandwagon me" (the hamster affair I assume). He also throws FoSes on Dean (for junk posts) and Adel (team-based BWing). Given that TG does the same for Dean and Adel, I am not going to say the treatment of armlx looks like distancing, but I don't rule it out either.
6: TG FoSes TJM, shaft.ed, vollkan and IGMEOYs armlx. His reasons for armlx are the weakest (he wants armlx to clarify his findings)
12: Neutral with no "good read"
18: "Doesn't understand" why armlx is accusing Adel of following him. This sentence confuses me: "I still don't really understand why you're even making these arguments though, Adel isn't exactly your direct competition of a lynch candidate." @TG: What did you mean by "direct competition of a lynch candidate"?
29: Thinks that armlx is "barnacle-y" and places a "Heavy FoS" on armlx, contigent on lurkers not being "horrendously suspicious".
33: Questions Armlx and Adel in conjunction
35: UnFoSes after armlx posts content and actually agrees with armlx on CKD. It's interesting that the "Heavy FoS" dissipates just because of a content posting. - when the basis for the FoS was armix being barnacle-y
43: Now he flips around, without explanation, and "wouldn't mind Armix going".
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Right, we've had TG making kidglove attacks on armlx and others early on. Then he goes neutral. Then he beefs it up to a "Heavy fos" for barnacle-y play, which he then drops once armlx posts content and, in fact, agrees with in pursuit of CKD. Then he flips round again and says he wouldn't mind armlx going. I agree with Erg0 that "This rings alarm bells for me."

The reason for much of your confusion regarding my interactions with armix is due to my own confusion. I had a very difficult time determining if armix was sticking onto Adel or if Adel was sticking onto armix. After Adel revealed that she was gambitting, this perplexity did not disappear. It stretched throughout most of Day One. As an attempt to rid myself of this distraction I tried to put Adel and armix on the backburner in my mind.

When armix pulled out his gambit excuse at L-1, this flooded my brain with memories of the early game connections with Adel and prompted my HeavyFOS simply because it filled me with a sense of "WTF". When he stickied onto my initial attack on CDK, I should have sensed this was a trend, but I was so relieved that someone actually saw what I saw that I didn't. I suppose I did an extreme disservice to the town by being so easy, but at this point I'm trying to put down in words exactly what I was thinking/feeling/believing during Day One as a response to your inquiries.

I would like to say that it's difficult for me to want to do an independent investigation on what everyone said on Day One with this heavy scrutiny. Of course I understand that this is natural given my poor assumptions of armix yesterday.

[TrustGossip]

Well then, dont ask stupid questions until you have.

Could you be less helpful? Also is my analysis of Day One the only way I can contribute? Or do you think that my recent posts are an exceedingly contrived defense / full of crap?

Oh wait, I guess I just asked a stupid question.

@ everyone: I also suppose antagonism towards CDK was also a major factor in my play yesterday.

[shaft.ed]

33: Says armlx is looking scummy "pretending to mimic Adel's strategy when he really didn't" (I don't understand this)

This is after Adel revealed her random bandwagoning was an attempt to look scummy to pull out people voting her as an easy target. Then armlx later posted this:

Early game I acted moderately scummy to draw responses, responded with a fairly detailed analysis based on my observations and some gut feelings on intangible things I had observed. Basically, I did everything you said you did, except when you did it the actions were legitimately scummy (able to start harmful wagons past the early/random phase) and you didn't follow them up with any sort of logical analysis.

which to me was just utter garbage.

and that scum getting L-1 and L-2 confused tend to act less rationally (evidence?).

This may just be my lack of games played but in mini-495 dybeck played pretty terribly once the threat of lynch became imminent. Korlash also played very ... irationally when pressure was applied to him. I felt armlx was getting flustered and grasping at straws that's what I meant with that comment.

I also notice the main reason I'm coming under suspicion is that I didn't make much of a case against armlx, pressed harder against pooky but maintained them at the same level of suspicion. This is for two main reasons. The first is that I was the only person that I felt was really paying attention to pooky and I wanted to point out what I thought were scummy plays by him that others were missing. Conversely CKD and Adel were pretty much pointing out everything that I saw with armlx being scummy. His attacks on CKD were just ludicrous. Also I was very limited for time during that part of the game. My wife and I are starting up a business and we were at a 4-5 day training session during that period, my access was quite sporadic and I had trouble getting caught up after returning. I know real life excuses can be annoying for the game but I can pimp out our new website if anyones interested www.dahlimarketing.com [/shameless self promotion]

[curiouskarmadog]

did I say that was my only reason?

Did you give any indication that it wasn't?

this was a stupid question. I asked have you been readind the thread, where I have been attacking you for your faulty reasoning all game. For you to say that was my only reaason for voting you was again..silly or yes, full of crap...but I guess that is like a warm blanket for you now.

[curiouskarmadog]

@ everyone: I also suppose antagonism towards CDK was also a major factor in my play yesterday.

there is a huge difference between being antagonizing and backing a contrived case (armix’s).

[Adel]

Can people start voting allready? I don't like how almost everyone is sitting back and waiting.

Please vote.

[shaft.ed]

pooky could you please address my recent inquiry.

[Near]

One scum wont vote for the other even when he's digging his own grave, but tries to look suspicious of him to distance himself. How cute.

It's such a fricking rough dilemma to decided which one we should hang up first. There's more room for JiveMachine to build on and maybe be (very lurky, very scummy) town, but the way shaft.ed is squirming is so funny I almost want to watch more of it.

Nah

Unvote, Vote shaft.ed

This strikes me as a very interesting post. Armlx, who was a scum, didn't have to make this post to defend himself. He was not the prime suspect at the time he made this post - the prime suspect was shaft.ed. I am not sure about the exact vote count, but something like 3 votes in a row were being casted on shaft.ed, including one from JiveMachine.

Either:
1) Armlx was trying to go with the bandwagon to kill shaft.ed, who he knows is innocent.

OR

2) Armlx thought that shaft.ed, his partner, is going to die anyway, and by making this post, he can almost guarantee that the next person who will die is JiveMachine (which means, he's a probably good doctor) and prepare to make future arguments for his innocence by citing his decisive post and vote against shaft.ed.

In case of 1), Armlx, I would think, would be concerned about the after-effect of lynching shaft.ed when the mod reveals that shaft.ed was a good doctor. Therefore, I wouldn't expect Armlx to use such "definitive" wording in his post.


I just joined this morning, so I haven't been able to read many posts in detail, which I plan to do in next week or so. So please excuse me if my argument is flawed because of later posts I might have missed.

[/b]

[Near]

In addition to 669, I just realized that Jive was fired and was actually good doctor, which could indirectly strengthen the likelihood of 2) above, because:

A: If 2) is true, then JiveMachine is innocent.
B: JiveMachine is innocent
C: Since B, which is true, does not disprove A, it's more likely A is true?

something like that?

[Claus]

As you can see, Near replaces Thanatos. Here is a votecount for the new guy:

Pooky 2 - TG, Shaft.ed
TrustGossip 2 - Adel, CKD
Shaft.ed - Erg0

Not voting: Near, Vollkan, Pooky

with 8 doctors in the team, it is 5 to get rid of somebody!

[shaft.ed]

Can people start voting allready?

I don't like how almost everyone is sitting back and waiting.

Please vote.

Said the queen of sitting back and waiting.

[vollkan]

Welcome, Near. I shall forgive the avatar plagiarism

Basically I disagree with volkan. Many times, you should balance self-perservation vs. voting for a guy you think is a scum. Especially in the beginning of the game, you might have some clues as to who you think is a scum, and maybe your guess is better than random, but often times you are wrong. We lynch on the first night, not always because we are "pretty sure" but because we have to - and we make the best guess. So, I don't think Jive's posts are in conflict with each other.

This is a theory point, but I don't mind occasional theory interjections, so I will respond.

Yes, there is a balancing act

to an extent

. However, catching scum needs to be the highest priority. Ultimately, town doesn't win by holding back - town wins by catching scum. If an argument is legitimate proof of someone being scum, there is no reason (in all normal circumstances) why I would refrain from raising that argument.

I'm not too sure what your point about "lynch on the first night (sic)" has to do with this.

The reason for much of your confusion regarding my interactions with armix is due to my own confusion. I had a very difficult time determining if armix was sticking onto Adel or if Adel was sticking onto armix. After Adel revealed that she was gambitting, this perplexity did not disappear. It stretched throughout most of Day One. As an attempt to rid myself of this distraction I tried to put Adel and armix on the backburner in my mind.

When armix pulled out his gambit excuse at L-1, this flooded my brain with memories of the early game connections with Adel and prompted my HeavyFOS simply because it filled me with a sense of "WTF". When he stickied onto my initial attack on CDK, I should have sensed this was a trend, but I was so relieved that someone actually saw what I saw that I didn't. I suppose I did an extreme disservice to the town by being so easy, but at this point I'm trying to put down in words exactly what I was thinking/feeling/believing during Day One as a response to your inquiries.

And what about the turnabout to you not minding armlx going?

and that scum getting L-1 and L-2 confused tend to act less rationally (evidence?).

This may just be my lack of games played but in mini-495 dybeck played pretty terribly once the threat of lynch became imminent. Korlash also played very ... irationally when pressure was applied to him. I felt armlx was getting flustered and grasping at straws that's what I meant with that comment.

Korlash played very irrationally throughout the entire game

I do understand this now, though.

This strikes me as a very interesting post. Armlx, who was a scum, didn't have to make this post to defend himself. He was not the prime suspect at the time he made this post - the prime suspect was shaft.ed. I am not sure about the exact vote count, but something like 3 votes in a row were being casted on shaft.ed, including one from JiveMachine.

I believe armlx cast the first vote against shaft.ed. He had been FoSed by TG and TJM, and called "so scum" by Pooky. In actual fact, prior to his vote, there was a wagon of three on TJM: Adel, Pooky, armlx. Then armlx swaps over to shaft.ed who has no votes, but a wave of mounting suspicion.

Either:
1) Armlx was trying to go with the bandwagon to kill shaft.ed, who he knows is innocent.

OR

2) Armlx thought that shaft.ed, his partner, is going to die anyway, and by making this post, he can almost guarantee that the next person who will die is JiveMachine (which means, he's a probably good doctor) and prepare to make future arguments for his innocence by citing his decisive post and vote against shaft.ed.

In case of 1), Armlx, I would think, would be concerned about the after-effect of lynching shaft.ed when the mod reveals that shaft.ed was a good doctor. Therefore, I wouldn't expect Armlx to use such "definitive" wording in his post.

Whilst it is true that armlx may have been concerned about lynching townshaft.ed, I am not sure that such a concern really might have prevented him from being so "definitive". Remember that we also had Pooky being even blunter, and the comments by TG and Adel were hardly of phenomenal length either. Given that armlx was first to vote, he might have felt safer given that he wasn't immediately pushing a wagon into danger zone.

Certainly, I think the winds were changing towards shaft.ed when armlx voted. It could be armlx wanting to be first on the wagon of his buddy, so he doesn't need to tag on a late vote and look dodgy; or it could just be armlx pushing against a seemingly doomed townie.

In addition to 669, I just realized that Jive was fired and was actually good doctor, which could indirectly strengthen the likelihood of 2) above, because:

A: If 2) is true, then JiveMachine is innocent.
B: JiveMachine is innocent
C: Since B, which is true, does not disprove A, it's more likely A is true?

something like that?

I don't think this logic is valid.

I think it should be:
A: 2) can only be true if TJM is innocent
B: TJM is innocent
C: Since B, which is true, is necessary for A to be true, A

can

be true.

The best way to think about this is that: TJM not being innocent would render 2) false. TJM being innocent does not substantiate 2) in any way.

That said, 2) seems like the most obvious course of action for armlx if shaft.ed is his buddy. Armlx pulls town credit for lynching shaft.ed scum and can then take down TJM.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

OF course I have posted "geniune" things other than attacking vollkan.

Don't act dense Shafted.