Mini 546: House Mafia - Game Over

[vollkan]

I know the investigation doesn't actually stand for too much at all.

Stay tuned for a review of TG and shaft.ed, the two who fared worst after my armix-centred read of things.

[curiouskarmadog]

the choice was really down to vollkan and Adel.

well, if I wasnt voting for TG, part of me wanted to vote for vollkan. I thought about picking one of the vote leaders (TG or Pooky), but I dont see a case against Pooky and I am still of the belief that TG is scum (so it would have been a wase of an investigation). I felt like vollkan's play as been really hard to read this game and the fact he is not voting is troubling. I hope there is no role like GF of the bad doctors, but I doubt it given the scum's win condition (just need one bad doctor in the final three).

for the others, Near and shafted getting a townie vibe. Adel is worrying me because a.) in the 2-3 games we have played together she has never agreed with me this much and b.) her completely different playstyle.

however, I can not imagine scum voting the way both armix and Adel did early in the game and I think Adel's might switch up her playstyle each game regardless of alignment.

[shaft.ed]

Holiday today, so this will probably be my only post.

I'm pretty sure I understand what pooky was doing. I still don't like players that play primarily for reaction, but after our "conversation" I'm finding pooky more townie than before. And no I'm not dense, I just have a very limited play experience. I know I post on site all the time but my game history consists of a newbie lurkfest, two normal mini's where I was NK'd N2, and one Open game that I played to end game. I haven't been exposed to many non-straightforward playstyles, so I have no experience reading them. Also having a conversation with pooky has felt like trying to nail Jello to a wall for me.

Anyway

unote: pooky

[Adel]

I think vollkan was a good choice.. since we do not have nks, I thin it is best to clear the person who would best benifit our chances of success, and vollkan is active and rational. good job ckd.

[TrustGossip]

I am still of the belief that TG is scum (so it would have been a wase of an investigation).

How would this be a waste of an investigation? It would have been irrefutable proof that I was scum. I thought a cop was supposed to be searching for the guilty party, not adding to a "happy fun club" of confirmed town.

@ Adel, are you completely done patting CDK's back now?

[curiouskarmadog]

Adel, you understand all this "patting" is making me uncomfortable, and I am not sure where it is coming from.

TG, I was trying to find another scum, I already think i found one in you.

[Adel]

volkan - good doc
pooky - good doc
ckd - good doc
adel - obvious good doc

TG, Shaft.ed, Erg0, Near each have 50% chance of being an accurate lynch target.

qft

[shaft.ed]

I may be incorrect, but it also seems mathematically to be in our interest to have a confirmed innocent. Before the game was for scum to have at lesat one of three players standing, that is now effectively one of two. And having a confirmed innocent with the scum hunting ability of vollkan will be quite useful to the town. All this assumes the results are genuine. I see no reason to believe otherwise.

[curiouskarmadog]

well I think we need to decide what to do next...the conversation has grown stale.

[TrustGossip]

Adel, you understand all this "patting" is making me uncomfortable, and I am not sure where it is coming from.

TG, I was trying to find another scum, I already think i found one in you.

That's great. You're wrong though.

So...

I don't really know what to say to that.

If my posts indicating my opinions/states of mind/thoughts during Day One don't change your opinion in the slightest, then I guess I was doing the "wrong" thing?

I really wish you would have just investigated me though. I still don't see why you would worry about "wasting" the investigation. If you used it on me we could avoid the inevitable crusade for my lynch...



I'm sorry for whatever I did that made you want to forsake me so.

That wasn't supposed to be an appeal to emotion, I just think things would be a lot different if you hadn't completely convinced yourself of my culpability.

[TrustGossip]

well I think we need to decide what to do next...the conversation has grown stale.

The begin the inquisitorial process.

I know

you

have already made up your mind, but others have not. For a lack of a better thing to do, why not begin the measures for a lynch of who you strongly suspect is scum.

I don't need an innocent result on me to prove my alignment. I'm just saying it would have made things a heck of a lot easier.

If you really feel things are getting stale, then stir the pot, you are our leader correct? Perhaps we all may learn valuable things on the journey.

[Adel]

I say we lynch TG and quick. His posts are full of noise and he has a very good chance of being scum.

Near is a newbie so I would feel bad about quickly lynching him.
I like reading shaft.ed's posts, so I want him to be in the game longer.
Erg0 is supposed to be a very strong player according to other players I respect, so I'm interested in seeing what else he will add to this game.

So let us lynch TG, and quick!

[Erg0]

Why "quick"?

I'm seriously considering switching to TG based on my armlx analysis (and the lack of agreement on shaft.ed), but I'm going to re-read him fully first.

[Erg0]

I think armix hesitated to vote for Jive Machine because he was afraid that his vote placement (hammer) would make his partner look more scummy. Who was the second person to vote for Jive Machine?

What makes you think that he hesitated? His hammer came pretty quickly after I put the second vote on (in terms of the number of posts in between).

Adel: can you answer this please?

[Adel]

I can't answer it, actually, because those games have not finished yet.

[Erg0]

I don't see how another game could possibly impact on whether armlx hammering 18 minutes after the lynch-1 vote can be considered hesitation.

[Near]

Isn't it possible that CDK is a scum himself? His reasoning of picking vollkan is understandable, but

I am still of the belief that TG is scum (so it would have been a wase of an investigation).

For me, CDK not investigating TG when he thought TG was a scum is difficult to believe. If CDK is a scum, tho it might be desirable to say this in order to try to get TG killed. Of course you couldn't have said "I checked out TG and he's a scum" because then TG would accuse you of being a scum. Isn't this too convenient of a way to try lynch TG? I mean, I am basing most of this on my belief that if you thought TG had highest chance of being a scum, you should have checked him out.

On the side note, despite the possibility of CDK being a scum, I think most likely vollkan is a good doctor. If CDK was a scum, he must have been concerned about other people being suspicious of himself or vollkan sometime down the road. Down the road, if one of the gets lynched or get checked out because of another twist, it would basically prove that the other is a scum also (actually, it would prove cdk is a scum if vollkan was scum, but not vice versa).

[curiouskarmadog]

interesting theory, what happens if TG turns out scum? Did I bus both my partners from the beginning both days? Where does the scum paranoina stop? Given your theory, who do you think we should lynch? TG to test me? Me to test...what?..Vollkan..top test what? NOw that you have put it out there..what now? If my investigation was understandable, why are we having this conversation?

Again, I wasnt sure that vollkan was town. I felt that he has been playing differently this game than others I have been in with him. It is documented in the thread that I have felt that way before we knew the "twist" investigation. This vollkan investigatio has provided us much more information than you are giving it credit

[vollkan]

PBPA of TG

{Since he has 100 posts, I will omit those that I see nothing relevant in}
2: Unvotes. Doesn't like the idea of suspicion being based on teams. Thinks that Pooky and myself stepped up to lead by virtue of our respective personalities. Says he doesn't like arml's vacillation about voting him - but admits it could just be him. Doesn't like Dean's spam (though he says it would be hypocritical for himself to criticise it), or Adel's team-based wagoning, but thinks his personal views may play a part. He FoSes all three.

Multiple FoSes strike me as akin to potential FriendofScumming. Aside from this, I find it interesting that TG equivocates on every person he FoSes. For armlx, it might just be "him". For Dean, it's hypocritical of TG to attack him. For Adel, he highlights it being based on his own personal views. Trying to make an attack, without having to poke his head to far out of his shell.

6: Doesn't like TJM's lack of Just Communication; TJM gets FoSed. FoSes shafted in agreement with Pooky. IGMEOYs me for keeping my random vote on him, and asks about my discussion with Dean. Finds Pooky unreadable. Doesn't understand Dean and Erg0's fighting. Thinks CKD's notion of Armlx being linked to Adel is valid. Doesn't understand armlx's stats, and FoSes this.

Again, we have a spatter-gunning of FoSes and IGMEOYs. His reasons for armlx are by far the most irrelevant and pointless. None of his points were excellent, but for armlx he basically just asks for a clarification of suspicion. And yet, somehow, armlx gets a strike out on his Fosometer whilst pooky, erg0 CKD and myself do not. He's declaring suspicion of armlx, whilst giving very weak (non)reasons.

12: Another scumdar. TG thinks Adel has dropped significantly due to lots of protown play. Neutral on Armlx - he only justifies this drop by reference to the fact that Adel also dropped.

This is very interesting because he found the link between them scummy (the following). I totally fail to see how this can then be turned around into thinking they are both pro-town.

He increases CKD because he doesn't understand the "hunches". Says I always seem town. Shaft.ed is a "sinusoidal wave" that is currently moderately town.

He says nothing about why shaft.ed is now less suspect

On Erg0, he is ambiguous, since he acknowledges it would be hypocritical to pursue Erg0 for being inactive. On Pooky, there is an increase for Pooky's pushing of a shaft.ed lynch. Says TJM is worse than before

Again, vague

Doesn't like Dean's non-content. He gives the following reasons for voting TJM:
1) Not giving opinions
2) Constantly being on the defensive

At that point, he was constantly under attack. What did you expect?

3) Giving up

This is a scumtell how?

1) alone might be a good reason for pressure, but not for suspicion (at least that early on and where a player is being under attack).

22: Says he "can see [Pooky's] reasonings" about me, and that he has "noticed" a "significant departure" from my usual play.

No prior mention was made of this by him. In fact, he said I always look pro-town, which at least implies he thought everything was consistent about me. He doesn't just say "pooky makes a good point", he has to make it sound like it was something he himself found.

Votes CKD and asks questions about his behaviour re Jive. Also asks armlx about his L-1 vote on Jive (why no vote on armlx?)
25: Makes decent attack against CKD's hunch-based voting
26: Lovely sentence here: "Instead of attacking my argument and OMGUSing my credibility, you could perhaps give your opinions on everyone else in the game? Does that seem unreasonable?"

Maybe I am missing something about this, but it seems like: "Don't criticise me, but do give me your opinions on everyone else"

29: This is interesting. He Heavy FoS-es Armlx for being barnacle-y to Adel.

Now, I remind our listeners that back in 12, the link to Adel was a reason for TG to think that armlx was pro-town. In 26, he said he was 'swooning' over Adel and Pookuy. 12 and 29 are incompatible and this contradiction revolves around armlx

32: Votes TJM for no content
33: Here, TG seems to hold my attacks on TJM against me, conveniently ignoring that he himself was vocal against TJM. Armlx (and Adel): He does these two together, and says armlx's play was quite decent before his L-1. Encourages pressure votes on Erg0 and Dean
35: Agrees with Armlx about CKD and unFoSes
43: Now, he "wouldn't mind Armix going".

Yet another flip-flop on armlx, totally unexplained. TG really does just seem to be bending with the wind here, and it looks immensely scummy to me

49: Confirms his vote for Road Runner.
52: QFTs Pooky's megaFoS on Erg0. (See: Erg0's ideas about this being an effort to shift culpability)
53: Says he currently suspects Erg0 and CKD. The Erg0 suspicion seems to come in from way out of left field. His lack of explanation for both is also troubling.
--Something I notice here, is that TG never answers this crucial question:
Post 69 looks dreadfully evasive also:

I was emphasising the point that you completely ignored the fact that you'd contributed to a townie's lynch, and focused instead on going after me, apparently for the same thing.

I don't think I was going after anyone. What I wanted was for everyone to weigh in on the aftermath before we decided on a leader. I didn't want the game to degrade into a "he said, she said" but that's apparently what happened.

Then I get you and Adel smacking me in the face. I am currently more confused than trying to string you up or something. Also I think you're confusing me defending against you as attacking.

He doesn't explain the FoS. At all.

Then he never answers this direct, blunt question

So why did you QFT Pooky's post?

73: Puts CKD and Erg0 in Closet of Temporary Confidence" after reread. Doesn't explain why.
83: Explains his Beep vote. He says the Erg0 megaFoS was due to him thinking it was a scum-quickhammer.
89: Doesn't understand why the not minding an armlx lynch is intereting
90: Responds to my earlier analysis. Says he was confused about Adel and armlx and had them on the backburner. Says Armlx's gambit excuse gave him a "WTF" moment.
92: Completely put Adel/Shafted and me on the backburner yesterday because Adel and I backed off shaft.ed desipte Adel being the initial targeter and me being "the most damaging possible opponent"

I'm not sure how this merits no suspicion of shaft.ed. Gives an inexhaustive analysis of armlx's links to people.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I won't rehash everything down here. Needless to say, where I write a lot of opinion in the above, that means I have thoughts (some bits I have italicised to make my thoughts stand out more clearly from general observations)

[shaft.ed]

I say we lynch TG and quick. His posts are full of noise and he has a very good chance of being scum.

Near is a newbie so I would feel bad about quickly lynching him.
I like reading shaft.ed's posts, so I want him to be in the game longer.
Erg0 is supposed to be a very strong player according to other players I respect, so I'm interested in seeing what else he will add to this game.

So let us lynch TG, and quick!

Hmm. Never had anyone tell me they like reading my posts. What is it the surprise endings? The lymmerics? The swaths of poor spelling?

above was meant to be

unvote:pooky

not trying to do anything Adelish with my voting.

[shaft.ed]

Isn't it possible that CDK is a scum himself? His reasoning of picking vollkan is understandable, but

Near this is a pretty garbage argument. What you need to think of is what benefit do you get from having either outcome (ie scum/town)? If vollkan is scum you get a large benefit because he plays very pro-town as scum and he would be very difficult to weed out. If he comes up pro-town he is a very good scum hunter who is now almost certain to survive the game since it's nightless. If TG is scum we get to a lynch a player that likely would be lynched eventually anyway. TG-scum would have to be one of three surviving players to have an impact on the outcome of the game. I don't see him surviving that long with the cast in this game. TG town saves us a mislynch. But this is offset by the fact that the town now has a confirmed innocent in vollkan so it's not really costing that much.

Also does anyone think the option of what the team leader gets to do could be different if he were town or scum? It seems odd to "reward" a scum who tricks the town into electing him team leader by allowing him to confirm an innocent, point out his scum partner, or falsely label a townie guilty so that they can be lynched following. I know this is meta'ing the mod but it seems worth considering.

[shaft.ed]

vollkan, very thorough analysis of TG. This combined with my suspicions following his reaction to the Beep mislynch makes me confident enough to cast a vote.

vote: TrustGossip

[Near]

interesting theory, what happens if TG turns out scum? Did I bus both my partners from the beginning both days? Where does the scum paranoina stop? Given your theory, who do you think we should lynch? TG to test me? Me to test...what?..Vollkan..top test what? NOw that you have put it out there..what now? If my investigation was understandable, why are we having this conversation?

Again, I wasnt sure that vollkan was town. I felt that he has been playing differently this game than others I have been in with him. It is documented in the thread that I have felt that way before we knew the "twist" investigation. This vollkan investigatio has provided us much more information than you are giving it credit

First, if we lynch TG and he turns out scum, then it's still possible that you are a scum. This would be a case of extreme bussing. In fact, because it's so extreme, you might do it. Especially in this game where there is no cop and in the future rounds we don't know what the twists are. If TG turns out to be a scum, maybe you thought there is no way we ever doubt your pro-town.

However, I would say TG and CDK are probably not scums together because: if TG and CDK were indeed two scums left, then I think CDK would have said that he checked out TG and he turned out to be a scum. This would almost put icing on the cake for you, CDK. We will believe you and lynch TG, and we will never doubt you again. And this even checks out with your prior post history because you always doubted TG.

I never said I didn't give you credit for your vollkan investigation. It was the fact that you didn't investigate TG, who you thought was most suspicious.

[Claus]

A vote!

TrustGossip 3 - Adel, CKD, Shaft.ed
Pooky 1 - TG
Shaft.ed 1 - Erg0

Not voting: Near, Vollkan, Pooky

with 8 doctors in the team, 5 are needed to get rid of somebody!

[Near]

Isn't it possible that CDK is a scum himself? His reasoning of picking vollkan is understandable, but

Near this is a pretty garbage argument. What you need to think of is what benefit do you get from having either outcome (ie scum/town)? If vollkan is scum you get a large benefit because he plays very pro-town as scum and he would be very difficult to weed out. If he comes up pro-town he is a very good scum hunter who is now almost certain to survive the game since it's nightless. If TG is scum we get to a lynch a player that likely would be lynched eventually anyway. TG-scum would have to be one of three surviving players to have an impact on the outcome of the game. I don't see him surviving that long with the cast in this game. TG town saves us a mislynch. But this is offset by the fact that the town now has a confirmed innocent in vollkan so it's not really costing that much.

Also does anyone think the option of what the team leader gets to do could be different if he were town or scum? It seems odd to "reward" a scum who tricks the town into electing him team leader by allowing him to confirm an innocent, point out his scum partner, or falsely label a townie guilty so that they can be lynched following. I know this is meta'ing the mod but it seems worth considering.

shaft.ed. again, my point was not that his investigating vollkan was not useful. please read post 722.

as for the team leader getting a different role if he were town or scum, i doubt it. because the twists are revealed to everyone. it would make it obvious that the leader is a scum if mod revealed that "vollkan was shot during the day by the unknown" or something like that.

I think it's very possible that CDK is a scum. I am starting to really think this is likely but I would like to hear what other people think, since i am a newb :p