Mini 546: House Mafia - Game Over


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Post Post #725 (ISO) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:01 am

Post by Erg0 »

Generally as cop I would investigate the person that I'm
least
certain of. It tends to make things easier in the long term, because those are often the people that are still alive later in the game when you have little to no margin for error. Confirmation on TG would be useful, but we're going to find out about him soon enough anyway.

Speaking of which, I largely agree with what vollkan has written above about TG. His QFT post right after the lynch, plus the stuff relating to armlx from day 1, are enough for a me to do this:

Unvote, Vote: TrustGossip


Note that this is lynch-1. Don't hammer if you don't mean it.

I'm keeping an eye on shaft.ed, but his overall play gives me a better feeling than his armlx interactions in isolation. TG scores poorly on both counts.
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Post Post #726 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:35 am

Post by Near »

Taking vollkan's post (post 718) at face value, it seems that TG has made many posts that are inconsistent. Content wise, I can see why people are suspicious of TG. But is being "inconsistent" and "fluctuating" strictly a mafia tell?

In my opinion, TG's posts are way too fluctuating. For example, one post he says vollkan always looks protown, then next he points out that vollkan is definitely acting differently this game. Content wise, yes, this is contradictory. But, if TG was a scum, what's there for him to gain by making this post? Is he trying to LOOK like he's trying hard to figure out who the scums are? He doesn't seem to be concerned at all about how other people will analyze his post and suspect his a scum (at least in the beginning of the game).

Volkan's post was insightful, but it didn't provide enough evidence for me to think TG is a scum. I also feel like I am risking my future credibility by posting this (whether or not TG turns out to be town or scum): but my hunch + fact that TG is inconsistent and almost reckless on who he's accusing makes me think he's a townie.
Show
Guys!! If RBD isn't scum, I'll video-record me eating my shoe and post it here!

Like, for REAL

Actually, I will hammer my cock.
That should be more fun.
I'll HAMMER my COCK and POST IT HERE.

RBD IS SCUM.
Lynch him and uncover the truth about RachMarie.

I'LL HAMMER MY COCK, MY BALLS, MY EVERYTHING.
RBD SCUM. ALL IN!!!!!!
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Post Post #727 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 10:52 am

Post by shaft.ed »

What's your hunch again? That CKD is scum that's blowing his cover in order to get TG lynched?
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Post Post #728 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:08 am

Post by Near »

shaft.ed wrote:What's your hunch again? That CKD is scum that's blowing his cover in order to get TG lynched?
You. I gave it some more thoughts and I agree with vollkan that the fact that armlx was the first person to vote for shaft.ed did not discredit my theory at post #669 significantly. I think it's still very likely that armlx WAS trying to extreme bus via shaft.ed AND at the same time lynch the other guy (I forget his name) armlx was claiming as shaft.ed's partner.

Two birds in one. Possible, no?

My second hunch is CKD. In the back of my mind, I just know it's him. But then again, I am somewhat reserved in expressing this suspicion, because I am slightly concerned that this is because I think my theory on CKD is kind of cool and I am almost "hoping" CKD is a scum so I can look smart.
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Post Post #729 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:15 am

Post by Erg0 »

Inconsistency can be a sign of recklessness
or
opportunism. It's particularly suspicious when a player supports a popular wagon despite havign spoken positively about the lynchee prior to that.

You're assuming that TG is doing it consciously, whereas I'm not (and I don't think vollkan is either).
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Post Post #730 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:21 am

Post by Near »

shaft.ed wrote:What's your hunch again? That CKD is scum that's blowing his cover in order to get TG lynched?
Hey shaft.ed I just realized you are in seattle. Me too!
Erg0 wrote:

Inconsistency can be a sign of recklessness or opportunism. It's particularly suspicious when a player supports a popular wagon despite havign spoken positively about the lynchee prior to that.
Your first sentence sounds cool. Although I haven't though of it this way before, I agree with you. But IIRC, most of TG's inconsistencies are NOT FROM supporting a popular wagon.
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Post Post #731 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:28 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Near wrote:Hey shaft.ed I just realized you are in seattle. Me too!
So you're very Near then. *rimshot*
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Post Post #732 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 11:40 am

Post by Erg0 »

[quote="Near
Erg0 wrote:

Inconsistency can be a sign of recklessness or opportunism. It's particularly suspicious when a player supports a popular wagon despite havign spoken positively about the lynchee prior to that.
Your first sentence sounds cool. Although I haven't though of it this way before, I agree with you. But IIRC, most of TG's inconsistencies are NOT FROM supporting a popular wagon.[/quote]

The one that I'm primarily interested in is his inconsistency on armlx, who was a popular wagon. It appears to me that he was defending his buddy for a while but changed tack when he realised that a lynch was inevetable.
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Post Post #733 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 1:40 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

Near, I am confused...do you think TG is scum and I am bussing again (wasnt that your theory before, I could be wrong?) or that TG is town and I am just trying to get a townie lynched? Your hunch (and that is what it is because I have them frequently) is that my attack on armix was all a ruse?

I think you just think I am scum, and you was basing all theories around that. What are your thoughts on Adel then? She seems to be agreeing with most everything I say. From anyone else I would be flattered, but from Adel is just freaks me out..your thoughts?

Near, I notice you have a lot of theories but no votes (not even an FoS atm) ...seems like you are playing it safe..if you think I am scum, place a vote on me...ask me some questions, pick my brain...but this eluding is silly (and slightly scummy).

Near...please provide three reasons why you think I MIGHT be scum.
NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE
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Post Post #734 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:03 pm

Post by Near »

curiouskarmadog wrote:Near, I am confused...do you think TG is scum and I am bussing again (wasnt that your theory before, I could be wrong?) or that TG is town and I am just trying to get a townie lynched? Your hunch (and that is what it is because I have them frequently) is that my attack on armix was all a ruse?
Nope. that was not my theory. It was more like I think you are trying to lynch TG, who is a town. As for your attack on armlx, I haven't actually read the posts (I will, eventually), but what makes your attacks different from typical bussing?
curiouskarmadog wrote:I think you just think I am scum, and you was basing all theories around that. What are your thoughts on Adel then? She seems to be agreeing with most everything I say. From anyone else I would be flattered, but from Adel is just freaks me out..your thoughts?
To be honest, I don't remember anything Adel said except for the fact that she called me a newbie. and I didn't even know that she was agreeing with you. I will catch up with these posts.
curiouskarmadog wrote: Near, I notice you have a lot of theories but no votes (not even an FoS atm) ...seems like you are playing it safe..if you think I am scum, place a vote on me...ask me some questions, pick my brain...but this eluding is silly (and slightly scummy).
Shrug. if you really want it...
Vote: CKD

curiouskarmadog wrote:Near...please provide three reasons why you think I MIGHT be scum.
I don't have 3 reasons. I have hard time trying to come up with one. I was going to bring up the fact that you didn't investigate TG even though you thought TG was the most likely candidate, but I learned from Erg0 and vollkan (from a diff game) that most people investigate NOT who they think is most likely mafia, but who they think is least readable.

I didn't think about this before, but I think the reason why I didn't vote for anyone is because I am humbled. I started my first game here about a week ago, and at the time I thought I was a very good mafia player. But in the newbie game, I keep making mistakes. Here, I FOS vollkan only to get schooled. I come up with a theory that CKD could be mafia, but everyone seemed to have dismissed it and no one seems to care except you.
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Post Post #735 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:04 pm

Post by Near »

Unvote
Show
Guys!! If RBD isn't scum, I'll video-record me eating my shoe and post it here!

Like, for REAL

Actually, I will hammer my cock.
That should be more fun.
I'll HAMMER my COCK and POST IT HERE.

RBD IS SCUM.
Lynch him and uncover the truth about RachMarie.

I'LL HAMMER MY COCK, MY BALLS, MY EVERYTHING.
RBD SCUM. ALL IN!!!!!!
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Post Post #736 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:05 pm

Post by Adel »

near, why don't you hammer TG so we can call it a day?
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Post Post #737 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:14 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Adel, can you
please
answer my question about armlx's hammer? The "ongoing game" excuse doesn't make any sense to me in this context.
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Post Post #738 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:18 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

to sum up my "attack" on Armix, didnt like his voting habits then he tried to push that I was scum because I over reacted and that in his book was a classic scum tactic....which is/was bullshit. because a.) it wasnt an over reaction and b.) doesnt give any indication of alignment.

but you really should be reading the game thoroughly before submitting ideas and theories. My attack on armix and reference to Adel are both quite obvious and is not hiding in this thread...

I might have decent insight if you actually inform yourself first.

that being said and even though I think that TG is scum....dont hammer until you have read the thread
NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE
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Post Post #739 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:23 pm

Post by Adel »

Erg0 wrote:
Adel wrote:I think armix hesitated to vote for Jive Machine because he was afraid that his vote placement (hammer) would make his partner look more scummy. Who was the second person to vote for Jive Machine?
What makes you think that he hesitated? His hammer came pretty quickly after I put the second vote on (in terms of the number of posts in between).
bah, I didn't want to answer that question because it exposes my folly: I thought it was a long time like a couple of days. I typed that theory out of memory instead of taking the 60 seconds to check my facts.
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Post Post #740 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:24 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

curiouskarmadog wrote: I might have decent insight if you actually inform yourself first.
supposed to read "
you
might have decent..."
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Post Post #741 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:33 pm

Post by Near »

curiouskarmadog wrote:to sum up my "attack" on Armix, didnt like his voting habits then he tried to push that I was scum because I over reacted and that in his book was a classic scum tactic....which is/was bullshit. because a.) it wasnt an over reaction and b.) doesnt give any indication of alignment.

but you really should be reading the game thoroughly before submitting ideas and theories. My attack on armix and reference to Adel are both quite obvious and is not hiding in this thread...

I might have decent insight if you actually inform yourself first.

that being said and even though I think that TG is scum....dont hammer until you have read the thread
Could you give me the post numbers?
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Post Post #742 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:35 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

do your own work..it will make you stronger.
NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE
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Post Post #743 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:35 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

that is if you are trying to find scum
NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE
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Post Post #744 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 4:30 pm

Post by vollkan »

PBPA of shaft.ed

0: joins NLU
4-5: Says he "doesn't trustgossip" (pun?). Asks who else is unteamed, and selects TJM instead because TJM has a "cool name".
I'm trying to work out whether or not this is potentially meaningful. @Shaft.ed: Could you explain why you rejected trustgossip?

11: Describes Adel following me with "O Captain! My Captain" as a 'convenient method of BWing'
12: Thoughts so far:
Adel - Doesn't like her team-based BWing
(Begs the question as to why)

Armlx for his attention to BW size
TJM for saying one vote can amount to pressure
15: Votes Adel because "I'm not liking some of your choices and reasoning thus far"
Very vague
. Doesn't like Dean saying he doesn't know where to place his vote since he has seen it as scum trying to look active
Where?

18: After I said that Adel just seems to be stirring the pot as usual, shafted says he meta'd her and found she plays like this before.
19: Explains that he meant unorthodox, not 'unbridled BWing"
20: References Adel self L-1 voting.
22: Admits he was wrong to say Adel often plays like this
24: Explains he was trying to determine why Adel was BWing.
25: Notes Pooky's inflammatory play
26: More (justified) strikes at Pooky's behaviour. Asks armlx to elaborate on his case against shaft and to compare shaft.ed to TJM.
33: Thinks armlx is scummy for pretending to mimic Adel and notes that he misread his vc and that scum tend to act less rationally when they confuse the two
Really?
Doesn't understand why TG unvoted to make TJM talk.
34: Scumdar, only of team LU.
1) Armlx: Attacks for his reluctance to be third, his firm declarations of alignments, and fanning with Pooky
Decent enough attack of armlx thus far, though he does tie it to Pooky

2) Pooky: Flaming fans and very little content
True

3) Erg0: Lurker who posted a lot then slunk off
4) Dean: Total lukrer
5) TG: Doing a good job of scumhunting

38: Doesn't like the attacks against me because my play is same as usual. Makes a critique of Pooky's arguments against me. Says he isn't liking armlx's recent posting. Doesn't like Adel accusing me for being scummier than Pooky when Adel originated the attacks on TJM. Thinks TG is an ass-kisser.
39: Notes a significant contradiciton in TG criticising me for pushing against TJM when he had done it himself.
41: Disputes armlx's CKD case.
42: TG is the only LU he thinks is town. He thinks CKD and I am playing same as usual. THinks armlx is not used to CKD's style. Adel as wild card. Thinks TJM is avoiding having to play.
49: Thinks Adel's interrogating has the potential to result in people slipping under pressure, that he doesn't like what appeared to be my effective ignoring of the lynch results, and that he TG's MegaFoS is just poor play.
50: Further criticism of Pooky
55: Case against Pooky. Suspicion initially provoked by Pooky's pot-stirring. Doesn't think Pooky's argument against evidence was pro-town. Says it was odd Pooky kept his vote on TJM whilst attacking shaft.ed. Then notes that Pooky also had his vote on TJM while the pressure mounted. Then he criticises the "frankly speaking" string again.
56: Thinks Pooky is consistently scummy and TG has a few slips.
67: Explains that he thought armlx's "intentionally acting scummy" was garbage. Says he was not going hard at armlx because Pooky was scummier
70: "having a conversation with pooky has felt like trying to nail Jello to a wall for me." unvotes pooky
74: Votes TG
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I'm MUCH more persuaded by the TG case than this. shaft.ed's play has been fairly consistent and has reasonably explained the problems I previously raised.
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Post Post #745 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:48 am

Post by curiouskarmadog »

where is pooky? been 6 days since we have heard from him.

Mod Prod Pooky
NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE
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Post Post #746 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:22 am

Post by shaft.ed »

vollkan wrote:I'm trying to work out whether or not this is potentially meaningful. @Shaft.ed: Could you explain why you rejected trustgossip?
Yeah the TrustGossip line was a pun. I like TJM's avatar much better. Love Radiohead. Never played with either before so I have no reason to prefer one over the other.
vollkan wrote:Doesn't like Dean saying he doesn't know where to place his vote since he has seen it as scum trying to look active Where?
Open 57, aoiqwe.
vollkan wrote:TG is the only LU he thinks is town.
This is a bit of an exaggeration. I couldn't read Erg0 or Dean due to lurking. I don't like lurkers and putting them at a more scummy level was also a form of pressure to get some posting out of them. I felt pooky and armlx to be scum D1.
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Post Post #747 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:24 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Near what was with the rapid vote unvote?

Adel why did you try to push that off to an ongoing game? Seems rather trivial to lie about.
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Post Post #748 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:45 am

Post by curiouskarmadog »

think he was just voting because I sparred him to...wasnt surprised at that or the unvote.
NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE
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Post Post #749 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:25 am

Post by Adel »

shaft.ed wrote:Adel why did you try to push that off to an ongoing game? Seems rather trivial to lie about.
I knew he was active from other games we are in.

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