Mini 546: House Mafia - Game Over

[Near]

Can we bring up Mod's posts in order to make a point on a player(s) alignment in this game?

[Erg0]

Anything in the thread is fair game.

[Albert B. Rampage]

mod

: can I ask Near how old he is in real life now that we moved on to another phase?

Yes.

Can we bring up Mod's posts in order to make a point on a player(s) alignment in this game?

Yes.

[vollkan]

I come home and all of a sudden we have a 48 hour deadline!

First up, I only recently reviewed shaft.ed. I was not persuaded enough that he is scum to justify his lynch then, and I am not persuaded to that extent now.

I've read over shaft.ed's N analysis (following N's actual posts at the same time) and, while I began typing one of my own, I ended up abandoning it since I found myself just repeating shaft.ed's views.

If I was to use my % scale to roughly characterise how I feel about these two at this point. Shaft.ed gets 55%. N gets 65%. I'm not sold on N being scum, which is why this 48 thing is a real concern for me, but I would prefer N to die compared to shaft.ed

I am in the process of re-reading Erg0. He is someone I don't have a clear idea on and I want to determine his viability.

[vollkan]

Speed PBPA of Erg0

1: Joins Pooky
8: Asks armlx why the third vote is so bad
9: Votes armlx for vacillating on the hamster
15: Explains that in 14 he was not saying he thinks TG is town, just that poor lurking excuses D1 have been used by him as town.
16: Asks Dean why he voted to pressure shaft.ed who had posted content in #85.
20: Votes Dean for failing to explain the pressure vote
27: Says he is just hard to lynch generally
29: Thinks Jive's play here is out of character
30: Thinks we are choosing between shafted, jive and CKD (If erg0 is scum, this probably means one of shaft.ed and ckd is also -

probably

). Raises weak arguments against shaft.ed - that he seems to be trying to appear active, but has some "good stuff". Says TJM has done "some scummy things (e.g. twice FoSing and then switching to a vote after pressure was applied)" - raises as potential newbie, but expresses willingness to lynch (which he didn't do for shaft.ed)
31: Some of shaft.ed's posts have been "somewhat weak"

Pot. Kettle. Black

32: Denies over-reaction as a tell for CKD
40: Expresses suspicion about Beep's hammer
41: Votes Beep. The reasons are very "broad":

He seems like a pretty good option for a day 1 lynch, I'd say. Even if the hammer truly was an accident, the vote was wagonny, and his predecessor was fairly scummy. Also, I don't want to spend five pages arguing about him tomorrow.

Effectively, the only reason he gives is a reference to the play of TJM and that he doesn't want Beep remaining come D2.
44-54: On TG's alleged distancing from Beep's lynch. Erg0 is in the right here.
61: Thinks CKD is very likely town given interaction with armlx. Iffy on Adel since she had her vote on armlx, but also attacked the TJM wagon despite having been on it. Suspects myself and shaft.ed more since we weren't on the wagon
62-64: Summarises armlx interactions. Concludes shaft.ed is likely scumbuddy and votes accordingly.
71: Suspects TG for his sudden turn on armlx
80: Votes TG for the megaFoS and armlx interactions
87: Votes Adel. Why?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Erg0's been hanging in the background for most of this game, and that worries me. I don't find too much which is suspect in what he has said, but the way he has been making many posts whilst hanging back somewhat is concerning. I put him at

55%

. Again, I prefer N

[shaft.ed]

shafted your thoughts on Near unvoting you because you were at -1?...was it a ploy to save his ass, or does he really want information in the next 48 hours?

I'm not entirely sure what to make of it. If I were a in his situation I would prefer anyone's lynch over mine since I know my alignment as town but cannot know anyone else's. Therefore lynching anyone but yourself would be in the town's best interest. Add on the fact that I'm his leading suspect for scum and his wanting to be careful just doesn't compute. However, we've seen how wishy washy he has been throughout the game. Also I agree that I found Adel and Erg0's quick votes on the troubling side. Adel's moreso as, has been pointed out, Erg0 has recently called for my lynch.

I'm also curious who he was worried would come in and drop a frivolous hammer. Pooky hardly ever posts or votes, and CKD & vollkan are two very deliberate players. I seriously can't imagine any of them wandering into the thread voting and screaming HAMMAH!!!@!11 without any thought.

I would write this up a scum trying to look townie by playing the caution card. But Adel's vote does give me pause. I'm looking at this the way vollkan is. Is there anyone that who is more scummy than Near? I obviously don't think there is given my previous posting, but I am a bit worried about Adel's recent play. I should have time to get in a read of her before deadline.

Also, I'm getting uncomfortable with Pooky skating through this game without posting. While I don't think this is the situation for pressuring a lurker, I would seriously like to see him post.

[shaft.ed]

Near there were a couple things in my PBP of you I would like addressed:

says he didn't actually count his + scoring system.

What the hell was it for then, just to look like you're scum hunting

?

And yes, almost immediately after I submitted vote, I wasn't sure anymore.

I kept hitting refresh wanting to hear Adel's or CKD's approval

.

What the hell is that last line about. Before you didn't even know Adel existed. And why are you seeking approval from anyone? And why specifically Adel and CKD, didn't you just suspect CKD as scum trying to mislynch TG?

[curiouskarmadog]

Pooky been pulling that in every game I am in with him. Adel has made me confused most of the game...this is a radical playstyle change for her. The only reason that she has stayed off my scumdar (lately) is because of her voting habits with armix earlier in the game. I cant imagine the Adelscum, would be that closely linked to armixscum that early in the game..of course, it could be a ploy, but I dont know.

I dont think that Near is scum...or maybe he is new scum...I would rather see a Ergo lynch than a Near lynch...but I would rather see a Near lynch than anyone else lynched (at this point).

the only person really in this game I trust is vollkan.

[Near]

I'm not entirely sure what to make of it. If I were a in his situation I would prefer anyone's lynch over mine since I know my alignment as town but cannot know anyone else's. Therefore lynching anyone but yourself would be in the town's best interest.

That is obvious. I'd rather anyone else other than vollkan get fired than myself . I unvoted you because we were given a 48 hour window in which we get to discuss who else to lynch. But in retrospect, I do wish that I didn't unvote and someone else just hammered you.

Add on the fact that I'm his leading suspect for scum and his wanting to be careful just doesn't compute. However, we've seen how wishy washy he has been throughout the game. Also I agree that I found Adel and Erg0's quick votes on the troubling side. Adel's moreso as, has been pointed out, Erg0 has recently called for my lynch.

Because, while I thought and still think you are our best scum suspect, it doesn't hurt to be careful.

I'm also curious who he was worried would come in and drop a frivolous hammer. Pooky hardly ever posts or votes, and CKD & vollkan are two very deliberate players. I seriously can't imagine any of them wandering into the thread voting and screaming HAMMAH!!!@!11 without any thought.

For argument's sake alone, it's a good point.

I would write this up a scum trying to look townie by playing the caution card. But Adel's vote does give me pause. I'm looking at this the way vollkan is. Is there anyone that who is more scummy than Near? I obviously don't think there is given my previous posting, but I am a bit worried about Adel's recent play. I should have time to get in a read of her before deadline.

Also, I'm getting uncomfortable with Pooky skating through this game without posting. While I don't think this is the situation for pressuring a lurker, I would seriously like to see him post.

If you are a scum, this is a good post.

[Near]

says he didn't actually count his + scoring system.

What the hell was it for then, just to look like you're scum hunting

?

Do you really have to ask this question? What do you think my answer would be. I think it's obvious. Shaft.ed ++

And yes, almost immediately after I submitted vote, I wasn't sure anymore.

I kept hitting refresh wanting to hear Adel's or CKD's approval

.

What the hell is that last line about. Before you didn't even know Adel existed. And why are you seeking approval from anyone? And why specifically Adel and CKD, didn't you just suspect CKD as scum trying to mislynch TG?

[/quote]

Specifically Adel, because she wanted me to vote against TG and call it a day. So maybe I thought she'd approve. I am not sure why I wanted CKD's approval... oh that's right, he wanted me to spend more time thoroughly reading past posts to do scum hunting.

[shaft.ed]

If you are a scum, this is a good post.

And if I'm town?

[shaft.ed]

says he didn't actually count his + scoring system.

What the hell was it for then, just to look like you're scum hunting

?

Do you really have to ask this question? What do you think my answer would be. I think it's obvious. Shaft.ed ++

It's not obvious. What is the point of a scoring system if not to look back over it to see what your feelings were in summation?

[Near]

says he didn't actually count his + scoring system.

What the hell was it for then, just to look like you're scum hunting

?

Do you really have to ask this question? What do you think my answer would be. I think it's obvious. Shaft.ed ++

It's not obvious. What is the point of a scoring system if not to look back over it to see what your feelings were in summation?

The point was exactly that. I just failed to execute it the way I planned.

[Near]

Anyway, here is something that I found interesting. This dosent' really defend my case actually it seems to incriminate me, but in case I die and people miss it: I want to a reference to our Mod's post #806

I advise you to take the FTAs instructions literally instead of acting in accordance to what you think the twist will be. This is in your own interest, trust me.

This was pretty much in response to my theory that youngest person or the oldest person may get a special power. We know the twists are pre-determined, so mod knew that it is in our best interest to keep the people we thought was a townie out of the youngest spot. Also, at the time ARB made this post, there was only one age distribution suggested (which was by me).

The list was this:

CDK 15
Adel 20
Shafted 25
Ergo 35
Near 40
Vollkan 45

My thinking is that, if ARB's post was a direct response to this list, then CDK is safe. If it was my thinking in general (that we should put people we do not suspect at youngest and oldest), then it leads to a conclusion that people we thought were suspicious (at least one) at the time are indeed scums.

[curiouskarmadog]

I dont follow that last post at all.

[Erg0]

Adel has made me confused most of the game...this is a radical playstyle change for her. The only reason that she has stayed off my scumdar (lately) is because of her voting habits with armix earlier in the game. I cant imagine the Adelscum, would be that closely linked to armixscum that early in the game..of course, it could be a ploy, but I dont know.

I don't really agree with the second part of this post - Adel has been known to pull some pretty brazen stunts as scum (e.g. trying to persuade everyone to post encrypted roleclaims in Doctor Who 2) so I wouldn't put this past her at all, especially given that it happened so early in the game.

I'm glad I'm not the only one seeing Adel's playstyle issues, though.

[Adel]

*sigh* I was pretty dissapointed with Dr. Who..

There is nothing consistant in my playstyle. I be eccenteric and erratic.

[Near]

I dont follow that last post at all.

Basically:

1) I suggested that we should assign people we trust highest and lowest ages
2) ARB hinted that is not in our best interest.
3) If ARB is on townie side, this means that people we trust are not scums.
4) Specifically, there was only one age list at the time (submitted by me) which had CDK at the lowest age. This makes me think that CDK is a townie.

[Near]

Regarding what ARB said about strategies for deciding on people's ages: I know it doesn't help my case, but it's a information I feel could be useful later.

Back to the important topic. Saving me.

Vote=shaft.ed

[Near]

To be honest, i'm not as sure as I was before. But Shaft.ed is still my best suspect. At this point tho, I am willing to vote for anyone other than vollkan (even CKD) if my vote can hammer them.

[Erg0]

If ARB is on townie side, this means that people we trust are not scums.

I don't think that it's reasonable to assume that the mod is on

anyone's

side. When I'm modding I can't even remember who the scum are most of the time, so I don't think we can infer much on alignments based on this.

Other than that, I admire your honesty.

[curiouskarmadog]

Mods anyway we can get a vote count?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Vote count

Shafted 2 - (Near, Erg0)
Near 2 - (Shafted, Adel)
Erg0 1 - (CKD)

7 alive, 4 to fire

[Adel]

Near: how old are you?

unvote

[curiouskarmadog]

I dont think that Near is scum (in this game). I also think that ABR (or Rampy if you dont like ABR) is a crazy ass bastard, but I dont think he would pick sides.

Now, it takes 4 to vote..here is my personal scum order of suspicion.

Ergo
Pooky
shafted/Adel
Near
vollkan

I actually had trouble putting Pooky in that list for he is the captian of all things lurker in this game. We have 48 hours to decide who to lynch or Near is dead. I obviously would perfer to lynch anyone higher on that list than Near. We have two more "bad" doctors in this game...we are getting to the point that we will

have

to lynch correctly. I would rather us keep our lynch ability, versus having the mod do it for us (as is our current situation). I think everyone needs to ask themselves do you really think that Near is mafia..if not, who do you think it could be....because choosing not to vote or sharing your opinion is the same as voting Near..

thoughts?