Mini 546: House Mafia - Game Over

[vollkan]

thoughts?

1) I don't like Pooky's disappearance

@Mod:

When does replacement become viable? I don't feel comfortable with him as a lynch, but he's really causing me concern.
2) I largely don't get much of a strong read either way on Adel - she isn't lynchable at this stage for me.
3) The three viable lynchees for me are Near, Erg0 and shaft.ed.
4) The thing interesting me about this game generally is how difficult I am finding it to pick up on scumtells. N, having the highest ranking, is only at 65% for me. That worries me A LOT.

I see there is opposition to a N lynch from CKD, and I am having second guesses myself. Ultimately, the kicker here is whether N is being scummy, or just town freaking out in the most ridiculous manner.

What am I missing about Erg0? I am finding him "concerning", but nothing leaps out at me. I believe this stems mostly from him playing in the background, despite being an active poster.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I prodded Pooky again.

[curiouskarmadog]

vollkan, something about the way he (ergo) joined the TG wagon stuck out to me, I havent had the time to dig it back up....sort of a hunch...will see if I can get it today since we are under a time limit.

no promises though..end of the months are busy times for me (sitting at home typing reports of investigations)

[shaft.ed]

Well I believe I have made a pretty good case against Near. I don't see too many people responding to it, however, so maybe I'm falling into the newb-tell trap. I didn't get time yesterday and I don't think I will today to reread Adel or Erg0 completely. I would much prefer to let Near die, though I would consider an Adel or Erg0 lynch acceptable but I do not think I would vote towards it. Pooky is also really bothering me with his absence at this critical time. I've seen him posting on site but he is avoiding this thread. But, as I've stated before, I don't think this is the right time to pressure a lurker. However, he probably knows that.

Sorry for the tortured reading I think each sentence had a minimum of one but/however/though. To busy to make it more readable, but I hope the information is clear.

[Near]

Reminder: deadline is 7:40 PM tonight. Unfortunately, I am in the process of moving so I don't think I can check this game regularly. I will try to sign on by 7:00 PM ish and see if changing my vote can lynch someone.

Can you guys try to find a best lynch candidate before then.

Possibly my last post;

Adel: I am 26
Vollkan, please do a re-read. At this point, I have confidence in you.
Please for my sake get some discussions going and try to find the best lynch.

[curiouskarmadog]

well it is about 7:15....would like to hear thoughts, I dont think that Near is scum..but I am not certian about shafted, I would rather Pooky or Ergo go than shafted or Near..

thoughts? votes?

[curiouskarmadog]

shafted, have you reread Ergo yet?

[vollkan]

Vote: Erg0

I don't like Near, but his dodgy logic is looking more and more like newbiness than scumminess. I will keep him in my sights, but I don't want him gone just yet.

Erg0 is most concerning me at this stage. His play has been to hang back in a manner that suggests he is keeping his cards too close to his chest, and his Beep vote seems particularly "forced" (to use CKD's description).

[shaft.ed]

shafted, have you reread Ergo yet?

Very busy day in the lab. Had a brief skimming, and while his TG vote seemed a bit out of place it wasn't that far off. He had me and TG 1 and 2 following his own analysis. Also didn't like his vote on me that was crossed with Adel, but again he had cast his suspicion on me well in advance. From my opinion of Near, Erg0 is not as scummy, and no really coherent case has been offered.

I must admit I am second guessing myself a bit in regards to Near. I feel if he were scum, his buddy would at least by posting something to move discussion away from him. If someone can get a more thorough analysis on Erg0 or Adel I might bite, but with the evidence in front of me I prefer Near TBH. I will say I'd lean Erg0 over Adel. If Adel is scum she bus'd her partner and hasn't tried to cash in on it. Usually scum will at least try to tie people to their bus'd partner to make it some sort of trade off. I haven't seen Adel doing that.

In regards to pooky, I obviously didn't like him early game. And he conveniently disappeared once my suspicion of him abetted. Really really don't like the fact that he's lurked through the last lynch and this mod imposed deadline.

CKD, no comments on Near's alignment or on my problems with his play?

vollkan why no interogations thus far?

Adel why no pretty voting montages?

[shaft.ed]

for reference I crossed with vollkan above

[vollkan]

vollkan why no interogations thus far?

I've put N's logic to scrutiny a few tunes now but, as I have said, little is leaping out at me as "interrogable". That's the reason I am finding this so difficult. I've done my usual analyses, but they aren't getting me anywhere interrogation-wise.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Less than an hour left.

[Erg0]

Crap.

[shaft.ed]

Crap.

Crap-There's less than an hour left, or Crap-People are starting to scrutinize my play and there's less than an hour left?

[shaft.ed]

vollkan why no interogations thus far?

I've put N's logic to scrutiny a few tunes now but, as I have said, little is leaping out at me as "interrogable". That's the reason I am finding this so difficult. I've done my usual analyses, but they aren't getting me anywhere interrogation-wise.

You really found this exchange more newbie than scummy?

says he didn't actually count his + scoring system.

What the hell was it for then, just to look like you're scum hunting

?

Do you really have to ask this question? What do you think my answer would be. I think it's obvious. Shaft.ed ++

It's not obvious. What is the point of a scoring system if not to look back over it to see what your feelings were in summation?

The point was exactly that. I just failed to execute it the way I planned.

[Erg0]

Crap, there's less than an hour left and it seems unlikely you're going to be lynched.

[vollkan]

You really found this exchange more newbie than scummy?

It is scummy, N is scummy - but he is raising doubts in me because of his inexperience. This is the sort of situation I hate. At this stage, it is clear that Erg0 doesn't have enough momentum behind him. I do think N is viable scum, but it still makes me uneasy given the doubts I have.

[curiouskarmadog]

shafted I really think you need to vote Ergo

[shaft.ed]

vollkan you had Erg0 at 55 and Near at 65 what changed your mind?

[curiouskarmadog]

shafted are you stalling?

[curiouskarmadog]

ergo feels that you should go, why dont you feel the same about him?

[shaft.ed]

God this sucks. The confirmed townie and the person I find most likely to be townie are both disagreeing with my choice and there's ten minutes left.

[shaft.ed]

I'm not stalling I think Near is the scum. Do you think Erg0 is his partner?

[curiouskarmadog]

I dont know at this point, I think Ergo is scum...

[vollkan]

vollkan you had Erg0 at 55 and Near at 65 what changed your mind?

Unease about his inexperience. I found N scummier, but that pulls me into mental conflict over his inexperience.

I'm not stalling I think Near is the scum. Do you think Erg0 is his partner?

I can't state with surety. But I don't think we've seen anything that rules it out.