Mini 546: House Mafia - Game Over

[Adel]

no objection from me.

Dice roll.....

Original Roll String: 2d2-2

2 2-Sided Dice: (2, 2)-2 = 2

-Albert

[Albert B. Rampage]

Voting begins.

[Adel]

vote: shaft.ed

I'm also willing to vote Erg0
I can probably be talked into voting for Pooky.

ckd and vollkan are as good as confirmed townie to me.

[shaft.ed]

Vollkan is confirmed. I was liking CKD a bit more before his pressuring me to save Near yesterday, but still thinking him more townie than the others. I'm up for an Adel, Erg0 or Pooky lynch today.

Good news is if there are three scum, and vollkan is truly confirmed (don't see any reason to believe otherwise) then all we have to do is identify one other townie.

[Adel]

ckd is that townie for me.

[curiouskarmadog]

need to do a solid reread, I was really wrong about my final read on Near.

Adel, what is your read on shafted? If it wasnt for shafted, Near would not have been hung.

also Mod, are you going to be telling us what these dice roles mean at the end of the game?

[Adel]

damn, I got Ergo and Shaft.ed mixed up. I incorrectly recalled the lynch choice at deadline as being between shaft.ed and Near...

unvote, vote: Erg0

suggested lynch order:
1. erg0
2. pooky
3. shafted
4. adel
5. ckd
6. vollkan

[shaft.ed]

I find it interesting that you would rank yourself below someone you don't know the alignment of.

[Adel]

well, i think i'm a little more scummy than ckd, from an objective point of view.

[Erg0]

Was there a diceroll for day 3? I can't find it.

[Erg0]

Inidentally, I suspect that the timing of yesterday's twist was related to a number of pages - witness Albert's filler posts to push us over to the top of the page.

Adel, based on your lynch order you seem to be suggesting that we lynch you in a 3 player end game, which is obviously suicidal if you're town. I'd recommend a rethink.

[Adel]

whatever, it isn't going to come to that, so it doesn't really matter.

[Erg0]

It only matters in the sense that you chose for some reason to put yourself above ckd in the lynch order. You're right in saying that the situation is unlikely to arise, because you won't live that long.

My preferred lynch order is Adel, Pooky, shaft.ed. Yesterday's result has bought shaft.ed some good faith, but I'd still lynch him before ckd unless something changes.

[Adel]

It only matters in the sense that you chose for some reason to put yourself above ckd in the lynch order.

i suspect that trying to post from an "objective" p.o.v. has soemthing to do with it.

[Albert B. Rampage]

also Mod, are you going to be telling us what these dice roles mean at the end of the game?

Yea just ask me again.

[vollkan]

Okay, our current ratio is 5:1. That gives us 3 more mislynches at maximum before we are at lylo, and this is assuming that a setup twist does not occur to somehow trigger more deaths (eg. the double lynch on Case 1).

Adel, I want to know why you are prepared to assume CKD is town? I don't suspect him, but

if he is scum

then the plan you posit is suicidal for the town. I guess this is an issue for later on, if we get into a LYLO situation, but I am interested to know your thoughts.

I agree with the list as it stands, however.

Now, the other point I wish to make is that I think we should not wait for the twist. We have already seen a twist which gave us a cop power, probably the most useful thing possible in this game. Assuming that we don't get the same twist again, I don't think our potential gain from any twist will be significant. Moreover, my paranoid side imagines many scenarios where a twist could be dreadful.

I don't know if we can avert a twist (probably not), but we may as well try.

Vote: Erg0

[Albert B. Rampage]

If a single bad doctor is part of the final group of three doctors I hire, the good doctors lose.

[Erg0]

I don't like the attempt to rush. None of the twists so far have been crippling for the town, there's no reason to assume that would be the case today. I also think that Adel is a much better lynch than me.

Vote: Adel

[shaft.ed]

I agree with Erg0 on this one. Rushing yesterday almost let Near off the hook. And the twist may have been critical in getting him lynched.

Pooky please post your thoughts on this game. Here's some motivation if you think it will help.

vote:Pooky

[vollkan]

The fact that none of them have been harmful does not justify waiting around. The first twist was effectively anti-town because it divided the lynching field and forced a second lynch without results. The second twist was, obviously, immensely helpful. The third twist (despite it's good result) put us in a dreadful situation.

Imagine if, eg, the last remaining scum were to receive PM dayvig powers (this, I admit, is the biggest fear I have).

I'll reiterate: I don't think we stand to gain from waiting for the twist, and we certainly can suffer serious loss.

And my numbers were wrong (thanks Albert )

It's 5:1. (6 total)
Mislynch = 4:1 (5 total)
Mislynch = 3:1 (4 total)
~~~~~~~~~~~
We only get two mislynches before LYLO.

[Erg0]

I'm not saying we should stand around twiddling our thumbs, but I also don't think that we should rush a lynch just for the sake of avoiding it. Now is not the time to abandon discussion in favour of oddsmaking.

[Adel]

I love it when scum mistake me for an easy target! It is probably the most rewarding aspect of my current playstyle. I'm sold on Erg0 being an accurate lynch.

[shaft.ed]

At the rate pooky is posting he's not going to get a post in before lynch if we try to actively avoid the twists. Something to keep in mind.

[Adel]

eh, I have pooky in the same category as Anix: damned annoying lurkers who intentionally avoid anything that might somehow indicate their alignment. I consider their lynch to be equivalent to throwing the dice for a lynch.

[Erg0]

Done some re-reading on Near, and I'm going to drop shaft.ed altogether as a suspect for now. I don't see Near as the kind of guy that would replace into a game and immediately try to bus his sole partner by associating him with lynched scum, especially when there were already a couple of cases on him (shaft.ed) for similar reasons. Coupled with the way that yesterday ended, shaft.ed is looking at about as townish as ckd in terms of relationships with lynched scum.

This leaves me with Adel and Pooky, both of whom Near was pretty quiet on. I note that in one post he defends both of them (along with TG) for their lack of transparency, which strikes me as a "safe" situation in which to defend his buddy. Going back to the original teams, Pookyscum would mean that all three scum joined L-Unit on the first day, which I consider less than 50% likely (though by no means impossible). This, coupled with my previous problems with Adel, makes me increasingly confident that Adel is our last scum.