Cultafia: Game over


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Post Post #50 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 1:34 pm

Post by Guardian »

Vote Count 2


mnowax [2] (curiouskarmadog, springlullaby)
the silent speaker [2] (vikingfan, Blazerunner)
Blazerunner [2] (the silent speaker, Yosarian2)
curiouskarmadog [1] (armlx)
Greggo [1] (ZaneWasHere)
mypenguinkat [1] (Greggo)
armlx [1] (malthusis)

Not Voting [5]: mnowax, mypenguinkat, Occult, Ration, stark
Last edited by Guardian on Sun Mar 09, 2008 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Do not lynch me.
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Post Post #51 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 2:32 pm

Post by armlx »

Unvote, Vote Yos2


I thought OMGUS was one of the scum tells you believed was overly relied on and not actually a scum tell.
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Post Post #52 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 2:41 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

armlx wrote:
Unvote, Vote Yos2


I thought OMGUS was one of the scum tells you believed was overly relied on and not actually a scum tell.
Um, no, that's not at all true. There was a mafia discussion thread about the subject a month or so ago, and that's not at all what I said. Let me see if I can find it...
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #53 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 2:50 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

Yeah, here it is.

viewtopic.php?t=7506&start=0&postdays=0 ... highlight=

As you can see, I voted yes, and then went on to explain that I did think OMGUS voting is a scumtell; a weak one, but a valid one nonetheles.
Yosarian2 wrote:I tend to think it's usually a weak scumtell, so I voted yes.

It's not a scumtell to OMGUS vote someone day 1 when you've got nothing else to go on.

It's clearly not a scumtell to vote for someone with good reasons, no matter if they're voting you or not.

It's not even a scumtell to suspect someone slightly more because they're attacking someone you know to be pro-town (you, in this case), although considering how many votes people make over the course of a game this probably shouldn't be that significant most of the time.

However, most real OMGUS voting is voting in order to punish someone for voting you or deter them from voting for you, and/or to try and lynch off someone in order to prevent them lynching you off first, and/or an attack designed simply to discredit someone who's attacking you, and that's all solid scum-tell material. It's a scumtell because town are mostly concerned with using their votes first and formost to find and kill scum, and secondarally sometimes using their votes to deter anti-town activity. Town should not use their votes to defend themselves in this manner. However, scum care mostly about staying alive and destroying the town, in that order, and they tend to view their votes as another tool in their arsenal to do both of those things; so if someone is voting OMGUSly, or if someone is attacking for OMGUS reason, then it is a scum tell.

The complicating factor is that for pretty clear psyscological reasons, everyone tends to be more suspicious of people who are suspicious of them; the game leads to a very natural paranoia, and that can lead to votes that look OMGUSy. So, you've got to use a lot judgement here, and that's why I say it's a "weak" scum tell.

Still, scum will tactically OMGUS vote and tactically launch OMGUS attacks, both in order to defend themselves and weaken the position of their attacker, and good guys shouldn't (at least, not outside of some lynch or lose situations), so yeah, OMGUS voting is generally a scum tell (scum tell meaning "something scum do more then town").
By the way, before someone tries to nitpick me, when I mentioned "it's not OMGUS to vote someone on day 1 before you have anything to go on", I was speaking of stuff where someone random votes you on page one and you OMGUS vote them right back instead of a random vote yourself. This is different; a case was presented, it's clearly a non-random, serious vote, and he responded with a weak counter-attack and a OMGUS vote. That's scummy.

So, armlx, where did you get the idea that I thought OMGUS isn't a scumtell, exactally? Did you have me confused with someone else or something?
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Post Post #54 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 3:09 pm

Post by Blazerunner »

armlx wrote: However, while TSS's case is baseless, Runner has acted fairly scummy since the case was presented.
Thinking time.
Explain it. If you mean my strategy post is scummy, or when I said the chances of we lynching the recruiter after making someone claim is scummy, though I dont agree, I respect that.

If you said I am acting scummy because my defense, I dont see how that is scummy. Is defending firmly against an accusation scumtell? In the other game I played (the only other one, this is my second), there was a discussion about "is overdefensiveness scumtel"?
armlx wrote: This is the quote that worries me the most, as Blazes subsequent posts, especially the one regarding TSS's allegations, seem much more informed about basic mafia strategy.
In fact, as I said, this is my second game. All the experience I have is from it. But Ill tell you what happened day 1.

Someone suggested the same as me (lynch claimed townie so he doesnt get recruited), people said "no that sucks" and at the end, people voted and lynched a player that most of the voting people knew to be innocent, one of the reasons being to avoid him being recruited.

I didnt want to play "the noob" to justify my strategy errors (As happened the other game), but if you check the game, you will see that most of what I posted actually comes from the other game, and I dont think is that scummy anyway.
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Post Post #55 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 3:13 pm

Post by Blazerunner »

Yosarian2 wrote:
vote:Blazerunner
. OMGUSing is bad.
I didnt OMGUS. I really think when TSS said "conviction that Blazerunner is someone who needs to die. " it is weird. And I would have voted him for that if you exchanged "Blazerunner" for "armlx", "The Silent Speaker", "Osama Bin Laden" oh whatever.

I would be OMGUSing if I voted YOU for that, not for my vote on TSS, IMO
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Post Post #56 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 6:31 pm

Post by vikingfan »

Yosarian2 wrote:
armlx wrote:EBWODP: A bit is probably exaggerated. Lynching a recruit is good, but lynching recruits for days on end is not going to win the game.
Actually, I'd go with your initial statement. Even with just one cult recruiter, lynching a recruit puts the town one step closer to losing. (Cult loses one member at day; that night, cult gains one member and town loses one member due to recruitement; net result, town falls farther behind.) Vigging cult recruits isn't bad, but lynching a cult recruit is not a good thing until after any and all recruiters are dead.

And lynching someone just because they're "likely to be recruited" is even worse, since then the cult would just recruit someone else instead. In fact,
fos:Blazerunner
for that logic.

Claims are to be avoided whenever possible, but if you do have a town power role, it is a little better to claim then to be lynched, because then at least we have a chance to lynch the cult recruiter that day instead.

Cult games are always hard to balance, and while we don't know much about the setup yet, I tend to think the odds are against us here. If we mislynch today, and if we are dealing with 2 recruiters and a SK, we might theoretically be in a situation where the town is no longer in the majority on day 2. It seems like we've got basically no margin of error this game.
First off, what does EBWODP mean?

Second, lynching (or in the case of a nightkill) a recruit is not necessarily bad. Your case would only be true if everyone could be recruited. But given the fact that Norinel is an experienced mod leads me to believe that not as many town players will be recruitable as expected (otherwise the town would be essentially dead with a mislynch or two). Theoretically, your case is true, but in reality, I don't think our situation is QUITE as dire as you're portraying.
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Post Post #57 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 7:41 pm

Post by armlx »

Vikingfan: Edit By Way of Double Post.

BTW, we aren't saying lynching recruits is bad, its just that lynching recruit after recruit gets you nowhere fast.

Yos:

Unvote


Sorry, actually mixed up the overreacting thread with the OMGUS thread.

Blaze:

You pick up on things like TSS saying you need to die, yet suggest bad lynch plans. Thats the contradiction that gets me the most.
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Post Post #58 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:39 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

vikingfan wrote: Second, lynching (or in the case of a nightkill) a recruit is not necessarily bad. Your case would only be true if everyone could be recruited. But given the fact that Norinel is an experienced mod leads me to believe that not as many town players will be recruitable as expected (otherwise the town would be essentially dead with a mislynch or two). Theoretically, your case is true, but in reality, I don't think our situation is QUITE as dire as you're portraying.
Oh, hopefully you're right about unrecruitable townies, but on the other hand, the setup also strongly implies the existance of more then one cult recruiter. If the cults average one recruitment a night between then, then lynching cult recruits is still pretty bad. Besides which, even if everyone who's recruitable is dead or recruited, if the cult leader is still alive then the cult is still a mafia-like group that can kill; without him, they're much less dangerous. So cult recruits are still pretty much cannon fodder, and lynching them still wouldn't be a good thing.
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Post Post #59 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 12:10 am

Post by Greggo »

I think that if you lynch a recruit in the day, the cult can recruit someone else at night.
IMO, that's pretty pointless. We should be aiming for the recruiter, not the possible recruits.
OMGUS voting when you're this far in the game seems pretty scummy to me.
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Post Post #60 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:52 am

Post by mnowax »

armlx wrote:Vikingfan: Edit By Way of Double Post.

BTW, we aren't saying lynching recruits is bad, its just that lynching recruit after recruit gets you nowhere fast.

Yos:

Unvote


Sorry, actually mixed up the overreacting thread with the OMGUS thread.

Blaze:

You pick up on things like TSS saying you need to die, yet suggest bad lynch plans. Thats the contradiction that gets me the most.
Who said Lynching possible recruits is GOOD???? It is one of the possibly worst things we could be doing! Not only we are intentionally killing a member of the town, but we allow the Cults to pick up another member!!! are you guys thinking straight? We should be looking for the SK and the recruiters.

You know the funniest thing? If you are a Vanilla townie, Lurking is the best in this game. either you win with the town, or one of the cult will recruit you and you could win with the cult. I think only the SK would really try to kill a townie power role.
Sure one more time for fun.
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Post Post #61 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:00 am

Post by vikingfan »

Yosarian2 wrote:
vikingfan wrote: Second, lynching (or in the case of a nightkill) a recruit is not necessarily bad. Your case would only be true if everyone could be recruited. But given the fact that Norinel is an experienced mod leads me to believe that not as many town players will be recruitable as expected (otherwise the town would be essentially dead with a mislynch or two). Theoretically, your case is true, but in reality, I don't think our situation is QUITE as dire as you're portraying.
Oh, hopefully you're right about unrecruitable townies, but on the other hand, the setup also strongly implies the existance of more then one cult recruiter. If the cults average one recruitment a night between then, then lynching cult recruits is still pretty bad. Besides which, even if everyone who's recruitable is dead or recruited, if the cult leader is still alive then the cult is still a mafia-like group that can kill; without him, they're much less dangerous. So cult recruits are still pretty much cannon fodder, and lynching them still wouldn't be a good thing.
I think you've misunderstood the nature of the cult here. The cult group can only kill if the cult leader is dead- without him, they can kill. All I'm trying to say is that killing a recruit is still better than killing a member of the town. Cult recruits have their power in numbers, after all, so cutting that down is always a good thing. Is it as good as killing the cult leader? of course not. but still a good thing.
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Post Post #62 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:18 am

Post by armlx »

Vikingfan: Read the roles again. Cult can choose to kill or recruit each night, but only if the Leader is still alive. If the Leader is dead, they can't do anything.

Mnowax: My definition of good there is +EV compared to lynching a town role.

FOS Mnowax
for suggesting the best strategy is to lurk. It's a prisoners dilemma, and you just suggested the best strategy is for one party to turn on the other (Cult presumably wins with townie who back stabbed), where the actual highest expected value for everyone is if everyone works (whole town wins).
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Post Post #63 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 7:40 am

Post by vikingfan »

armlx wrote:Vikingfan: Read the roles again. Cult can choose to kill or recruit each night, but only if the Leader is still alive. If the Leader is dead, they can't do anything.
Yep, you're right, just went back and reread. My bad.
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Post Post #64 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:05 am

Post by Blazerunner »

armlx wrote:Blaze:

You pick up on things like TSS saying you need to die, yet suggest bad lynch plans. Thats the contradiction that gets me the most.
One thing is not really related to another.

I said "claimed townies should die so they arent recruited". There were no claimed townies at the moment, it is something that would only happen later in the day, had time to be discussed and so. I was not trying to convince anyone to lynch an innocent, and it is not such an absurd suggestion that only a cultist would do. I keep hitting this point, it just happened in my last game. And at the moment I made the suggestion, I didnt remember the alarmist. But I see now it is wrong, it really doesnt help the town. It is a mistake. It is an error about "whether a lynched townie is better than a recruited one"

TSS says "he should die for giving a bad suggestion and being the second in a wagon". When you vote someone, you are not saying the person needs to die. YOu might just be investigating, putting pressure, etc. When you say "he needs to die" its like "its over, you cant possibly get out of this, EVERYBODY VOTE HIM". Seems to me like someone rushing to lynch someone right away, over little evidence.

I hope this is my last about OMGUS, cause I really have nothing better to say than this: believe it or not, I would have voted (with a "sounded weird" meaning, and not a "lynch him right away" meaning as he did) TSS for that way of speaking whoever he was accusing. I dont think TSS is definetly guilty, but, again, believe it or not, if I live long enough in the game, my bad feeling over this wont go away if/when he unvotes me. Not saying he will never be able to say anything to convince me he is town. Just that this phrase will always seem, at least, misplaced to me.
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Post Post #65 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:09 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

mnowax wrote: You know the funniest thing? If you are a Vanilla townie, Lurking is the best in this game. either you win with the town, or one of the cult will recruit you and you could win with the cult. I think only the SK would really try to kill a townie power role.
fos:mnowax
for suggesting that.

And no, if you lurk, you're likely to get lynched or vigged. If you get lynched or vigged as town, then you lose if the town loses, and getting lynched as town also makes the town more likely to lose. Besides, what cult would want to recruit a worthless townie? Even if you don't die, if you lurk you'd just sit there useless, and remember that if you're still town when the cult gets a majority you still lose. So no, lurking as town would be a horrible stratagy.

On the other hand, I kind of expect cult recruiters to lurk or semi-lurk, to try to stay in the background and let their expendable recruits do the dirty work. So lynching lurkers and quiet background semi-lurkers seems like a good idea this game.
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Post Post #66 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:22 am

Post by Blazerunner »

Well, I have nothing else to talk about the accusations made over me. But feel free to keep them going for as long as you want, and I will keep responding to them for as long as I have arguments. I hope no one says "scum, youre deviating from your accusation" for what Im going to ask right now.

I was wondering about 2 things:

First, there was only one body tonight, and we have the SK and the vigilante. There are 3 and only 3 things that may have happened:

1)The vigilante didnt try to kill, and SK killed DrippingGoofbal
2)Both of them took a shot, but one of them was blocked, and the other killed Dripping
3)Both of them took a shot, but one of them hit a "tough" target (SK or a recruiter), and the other killed Dripping

I really dont know: Should the vig have tried to kill? I would like to hear everybody's opinion here. It is a guesswork, but can eventually get us anywhere.

The other thing: can TSS explain what is the "perfectly good reason for focusing on the armlx bandwagon rather than the mnowax one"? This is no accusation whatsoever, I already said he didnt NEED one, and depending what the reason is, he shouldnt even tell them. I can think of 3, but Id like to hear from him, since he mentioned it. But I wont take it as a scumtell if he doesnt explain, I can imagine town reasons for that too
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Post Post #67 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:23 am

Post by armlx »

Blaze:

"Claimed townie should die" is bad as you are lynching A) a townie or B) a recruit. Both are not good ways to win.

The point about TSS saying you need to die is valid.

About my statement: The two things I pointed out show contradictory levels of pro-town thought. Catching the "must die" is good town play, the bad lynch plans are bad. This suggests you know what you are doing and are purposefully trying to lead us into bad plans.

Edit mid-train of thought: I'm an idiot.

Unvote, Vote Blazerunner
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Post Post #68 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:30 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

First of all, no one should claim vanillia townie, at all, under ANY circumstances. If you're vanillia townie, then no matter what, DO NOT CLAIM ANYTHING. We were talking abotu what to do if power roles claim, which is a very different thing.

On another note:
First, there was only one body tonight, and we have the SK and the vigilante. There are 3 and only 3 things that may have happened:
We don't actually know that; the mod specifically said that the following roles might or might not exist. There might be a vig, there might be a SK, there might be both, there might be neither. There might even be multiple vigs or SK's.
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Post Post #69 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:39 am

Post by Blazerunner »

armlx wrote:Blaze:

"Claimed townie should die" is bad as you are lynching A) a townie or B) a recruit. Both are not good ways to win.

The point about TSS saying you need to die is valid.

About my statement: The two things I pointed out show contradictory levels of pro-town thought. Catching the "must die" is good town play, the bad lynch plans are bad. This suggests you know what you are doing and are purposefully trying to lead us into bad plans.

Edit mid-train of thought: I'm an idiot.

Unvote, Vote Blazerunner
.
I know "claimed townie should die" is bad. I already agreed. What I have to say in my defense, I already said. I thought it might have been good. This might make me a noob, but not a recruiter. I dont want to enter WIFOM, but I wouldnt suggest this as a recruiter.

Just imagine: If I freaked out right now (OMG, I have 4 votes) and decided to claim, and it maked sense. Would
none
of you
consider
keeping your vote, even thinking there is a good chance I am tonwie after the claim (a good chance because you cant know for sure)?

In the other game I played, the guy was still lynched (he didnt openly claim though, but many of the people voting him agreed he was probably innocent, its basically the same as an accepted claim). Perhaps people there are stupid, or the setup differences make this far worse here, and I didnt notice that.

And please, PLEASE, dont anyone say "omg he said claimed people should be lynched and now wants to claim to get out of this". I DONT want to claim.
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Post Post #70 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:45 am

Post by vikingfan »

Yosarian2 wrote:First of all, no one should claim vanillia townie, at all, under ANY circumstances. If you're vanillia townie, then no matter what, DO NOT CLAIM ANYTHING. We were talking abotu what to do if power roles claim, which is a very different thing.
I agree with you- however, we may have the alarmist around to protect against recruits. So the cults will have to decide whether or not to go after the claimed person. Also, if they both go after the claimed person, the person will die and they lose a night of killing/recruiting.

Things are a LITTLE better than what's being portrayed. The real problem is if it's discovered either that we don't have an alarmist or the alarmist(s) dies. But the fact that one has to be accounted for helps the town, I think.
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Post Post #71 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:48 am

Post by Blazerunner »

armlx wrote:About my statement: The two things I pointed out show contradictory levels of pro-town thought. Catching the "must die" is good town play, the bad lynch plans are bad. This suggests you know what you are doing and are purposefully trying to lead us into bad plans.
One last thing (I hope) before I leave the forum for now:

Bad town play doesnt definetely mean scum, but its a valid point. You cant just assume people acting anti-town are noob, not guilty, or you dont go anywhere, so this isnt really a defense, but why exactly do you mean by "This suggests you know what you are doing and are purposefully trying to lead us into bad plans."?
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Post Post #72 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:50 am

Post by armlx »

My point is you are trying to deliberately add faulty strategies into our discussion in the hope we use them, giving you as scum more a chance of winning.
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Post Post #73 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:56 am

Post by Blazerunner »

armlx wrote:My point is you are trying to deliberately add faulty strategies into our discussion in the hope we use them, giving you as scum more a chance of winning.
This is your conclusion, and this I had already understood. What Im curious is about the thinking that got you to that conclusion and not that I didnt know what I was doing when I suggested that.

I mean, you dont need a reason for that, as I said, but as you specifically said it, I think you might have a reason.

I didnt want to enter WIFOM, but I really think recruiters wouldnt suggest strategies hoping people wont notice they are not pro-town. If they know what they are doing. Specially such a stupid strategy as you all say this one is.
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Post Post #74 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 9:03 am

Post by armlx »

Your posts show a knowledge of the game greater than your plans. For example, you cite WIFOM and know its bad. That is my reason.

BTW, nice WIFOM. "Scum wouldn't do that, its too scummy". Very happy with my vote.
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