Mini 508- Trouble in New Catania-Game Over

[Ythill]

Hmmmm... I have returned surprised to be alive, next in line for a claim, and Stranger's #1 suspect. It's going to be an interesting day.

I'm vanilla town.

TheStranger is up next.

FOS: Seta

for finally getting over her tunnel vision to lynch town. I'm going to reread our confirmed scum again now that the noise is out of the thread.

Is there such a thing as a non-killing mafia role?

[TheStranger]

Bulletproof townie.

Go Claus.

[Ythill]

As promised, a new analysis of our confirmed scum. This is the result of a name-search of each living player (and their predecessors) in the isolated posts of all five confirmed scum players. Please feel free to point out anything I missed.

Me

D_O never mentions Stree/me. RW mentions me once, asking me for a stance on S2. LML fingers Stree as Rishi’s scumbuddy quite early. He later fingers Stree as Lowell’s buddy. Neither of these accusations contain evidence against Stree. DGB never mentions Stree. Thok lists him as neutral without explanation; he never mentions me.

I’m not going to provide opinions here since I’m obviously biased.

Seta

D_O only mentions Beastly/Seta once: an FoS on Beastly for an overdue post. RW doesn’t mention Beastly/Seta. LML doesn’t mention Beastly/Seta. She is one of only two players mentioned by DGB: he agrees with her suspicion of S2. Thok lists Beastly as a lurker and points out that Seta has posted more than him, but never mentions them again.

I find it very telling that Thok raised accusations of tunneling against rite but didn’t ever mention Seta’s tunneling on S2, or agree with me when I mentioned it. Also, see below for two points.

Claus

D_O answers a direct question from Claus and explicitly agrees with CTD’s opinion that kurbio is scummy. RW agrees to try and post a player analysis at Claus’ request; he never mentions CTD.

LML starts with very mild suspicion on Claus and slowly changes it to suspicion worthy of his vote. The case isn’t very strong and was initiated by LML without prompting, so it doesn’t look like distancing to me. His only mention of CTD is a question about suspecting the Lowell wagon. DGB doesn’t mention Claus/CTD. Thok starts with a town read on Claus/CTD.

The light treatment and general agreement doesn’t bode well for Claus, but the LML attack seems like scum vs. town to me. It helps that, if Claus is scum, he has bussed two days in a row.

S2

D_O focuses a good deal of his time and effort suspecting S2 but never votes for him. These efforts at suspicion are not initiated by D_O and could be distancing. RW makes one post suggesting that S2 might be “silly scum” along with Lowell, but doesn’t otherwise mention him.

LML initiates the early attacks on S2 and pushes the S2 “slip” case a bit. DGB’s one post is a vote for S2 without a case. Thok reads S2 as scummy, posting a lot of evidence suggesting kuribo and S2 as buddies. He votes and revotes S2. Thok suggests S2 is Thesp’s buddy while voting for Thesp and, in the very next post, he suggests that S2 was RW’s buddy. He goes on to attribute Ibby’s death to her suspicions of S2 which is a stretch and might have been the reason Thok killed Ibby, noting that two of her three suspicions are now confirmed town.

The interactions here are puzzling. D_O/RW’s light treatment of S2 seems like safe mention of a suspicious buddy without pushing the cases too much. It would later play as suspicion if S2 were to be busted. LML acts the same way but makes a guess as to S2’s buddy. Thok seems to have picked up on this strategy: he attacks S2 vehemently and suggests a slew of possible buddies. This reads as bussing. Also, see below for another point.

Thesp

D_O random-votes rite (now Thesp), argues with him about whether or not to hammer Lowell. RW discusses Thesp’s supposed ability to confirm kuribo’s claim, claims when Thesp requests it, and asks Thesp for a player analysis.

LML random-votes rite and jokingly accuses him of OMGUS but never mentions him again. DGB is silent on this topic. Thok enters with rite on the scumlist for tunneling vs. Lowell. He wants to hear what Thesp has to say about kuribo’s claim and points out that the lack of a night action is a null-tell (not a town tell) on rite/Thesp. Thok answers a few light-content posts from Thesp, votes him for “bussing RW,” and defends against a mild attack from Thesp.

All scum seem interested in Thesp’s response to kurbio’s investigation. This feels like honest role-fishing which is a huge town-tell in Thesp’s favor. Thok’s attack on Thesp also seems like a genuine gambit. It helps that, if Thesp is scum, he has bussed two days in a row.

Global Points

DGB made only one post in which he agreed with Seta’s case and voted for S2. I believe one of them to be our remaining scum and I believe it is a close race.

Do any of you have experience playing with DGB as scum? Which do you think he is more likely to have done: agree with his buddy or vote him?

Of course I understand that this is purely WIFOM but I’d like to discuss it anyway, because our answer may be here.

Thok’s entrance analysis included two odd parenthetical comments. One of those, “(simply for a total lack of presence in the game),” referred to his confirmed buddy, D_O. The other, “(death_omen and rite are also nonentities to some extent.),” was in reference to Seta. This was from his gambit post, so we should be careful, but it could indicate that Seta is our remaining scum.

Current Events

I’ve already mentioned my distrust of Seta’s hop onto Lowell. She gave squat for reasoning.

I am also disliking The Stranger’s timing at sundown yesterday. The mod posted to tell us when he prodded but Stranger still didn’t check in until after the lynch.

((P.S. Not sure how I feel about that bulletproof claim, which I just noticed. Will consider it.))

I have no problem with the votes of Thesp and Claus. Both seemed natural considering their stated reasons and ongoing beliefs.

Conclusion

It’s pretty obvious to me that Thesp and Claus are town. I know I am. That leaves two people who look almost equally scummy and at least two lynches before there is the possibility of a scum win. From my point of view, I think this game is still in the bag.

However, I do understand that you don’t know me to be town so this may not be everyone else’s conclusion.

I think we should hang Seta or the Stranger. I also think that a detailed reread of their interactions will tell us which one is most likely to be our remaining bad guy. I’ll be voting for one of them after doing that reread, which may not be immediately.

[Setael]

TheStranger, if you're bulletproof that means there's a (albeit slim) chance there's no doc and in that case we don't want the cop (if any) to claim. When did you read the roleblocker claims from yesterday? Did you finish reading that before the day ended? I find it odd that you didn't mention it as soon as we started talking about role claiming - at least first thing today if you weren't finished reading the thread yesterday. What if a cop were to claim and then no doc claims? Now that we know you're bulletproof, it wouldn't necessarily mean the mafia was no killing, it could mean they targeted you twice.

[Ythill]

@ Seta: There cannot be both a cop and a doc unless one of the vanillas is lying as town. Everyone but Claus has claimed.

[Thesp]

TheStranger, if you're bulletproof that means there's a (albeit slim) chance there's no doc and in that case we don't want the cop (if any) to claim.

This is incorrect - the cop would have at least two results, and should claim if he exists. I'm not saying further until Claus claims.

[Claus]

Bang. I'm town.

I find TS' claim is a little hard to believe. I don't see Seta-scum, Ythill-scum, or even Thesp-scum (which I don't believe) targeting an unkillable twice.

On the other hand, I had TS pegged as town from my last re-read. I have to re-read this carefully.

[Claus]

Oh, I also don't believe in two scum no-kills. So something is strange here.

[Setael]

This is incorrect - the cop would have at least two results, and should claim if he exists. I'm not saying further until Claus claims.

That's true - I was thinking more along the lines of if there's no doc, we wouldn't want to make the cop a target for tonight. You're right though, if there's a cop (who claimed vanilla waiting for a possible doc claim) I agree that the innocent results would narrow it down enough that scum could not win at this point and they should claim anyway.

[Ythill]

I’ve put some thought into our odd situation. One of three possibilities has to be true (1) Stranger is lying and therefore scum, (2) we have a doc who is still pretending to be a townie (could be true regardless of whether or not Stranger is telling the truth) or (3) scum targeted S2/Stranger two nights in a row.

(1)
For stranger to be lying, we have to believe that the first no-kill was the result of S2’s absence, in spite of this…

Which gives us an anomoly. Since the day is starting up on the 21st, this means that the mafia no-kill was by design, not caused by inactivity.

…which is

possible

(but maybe not probable) considering that S2 hadn’t posted in almost three weeks and, as the mod said…

Mod: Could we get a prod on someone2 and, if appropriate, a replacement?

He hasn't responded to the last one. Currently replacement hunting.

In this case, what had to have happened was that the mod decided it would be too revealing to wait until the night-action deadline so, knowing that S2 was being replaced, adjudicated the no-kill a day early. Stranger entered and saw what had happened, he came up with the claim-bulletproof-townie gambit and purposely refrained from killing on the next night to make it seem more believable.

I feel like this option makes a lot of assumptions and stands in the face of the evidence rather than in line with it, but

it is possible

.

(2)
The still-hidden doc option is also possible but I don’t understand why one wouldn’t have counter-claimed Stranger, possibly ending the game.

(3)
Scum targeting S2/Stranger twice in a row is the most likely scenario though I’m still not ready to entirely dismiss the other options.

The point here is that, unless we believe (1) or (2) to be true, we now have a new clue. The motive for the second kill attempt could have been as simple as trying to second guess a doc and not considering the possibility of a bulletproof townie but we can ask ourselves why the remaining scum targeted S2 the first time.

Framing Seta doesn’t make sense, silencing S2 was pointless. The only theories that really make sense to me are Seta wanting to dispose of her pawn before he was replaced or Thesp wanting his defense of S2 to pay off (would apply to me too, except I know my alignment).

Comments?

[Setael]

The still-hidden doc option is also possible but I don’t understand why one wouldn’t have counter-claimed Stranger, possibly ending the game.

I didn't understand this statement. How would a doc be counterclaiming The Stranger?

[Ythill]

I guess I should have said "sort of " counter-claimed. The doc would be another good reason for those no-kills and honestly, if I was a doc, I'd seriously suspect Stranger of lying about his claim.

So no, not a full counter-claim but similar, do you understand what I mean?

[TheStranger]

TheStranger, if you're bulletproof that means there's a (albeit slim) chance there's no doc and in that case we don't want the cop (if any) to claim. When did you read the roleblocker claims from yesterday? Did you finish reading that before the day ended? I find it odd that you didn't mention it as soon as we started talking about role claiming - at least first thing today if you weren't finished reading the thread yesterday. What if a cop were to claim and then no doc claims? Now that we know you're bulletproof, it wouldn't necessarily mean the mafia was no killing, it could mean they targeted you twice.

1. "duh" on the mafia not no killing.
2. Why are you so sure there is a doc?
3. What did you expect me to mention earlier? The possibility of a bulletproof? After I'd likely just been targeted? I think scum might've noticed.

It seems like your having trouble adjusting to this realization. I'm sure scum were trying to out-think the "doc" by going after me twice in succesion.

[Ythill]

Something has occured to me... What's optimal bulletproof strategy?

I've never played bulletproof but I think I'd have a hair trigger on claiming. I might even claim unbidden in the random phase, call investigations to myself, and advise town not to hang me until later in the game. I'd certainly claim if a wagon of any kind formed on me because the strength of a bulletproof townie lies in becoming confirmed before the endgame.

Yet, through two separate players and much suspicion, our BPT holds off until mass-claim?

I'd like to hear

everyone's opinion on this

. How would you play a bulletproof town early-to-mid game? How would you play if you replaced in when The Stranger did? How does your view of S2/Stranger's play jibe with that strategy?

[Setael]

if you're bulletproof that means there's a (albeit slim) chance there's no doc

2. Why are you so sure there is a doc?

Can you reconcile these 2 statements for me, please? Yesterday (in case you didn't read the thread) everyone stated that they're not a roleblocker. I find it unlikely scum would no kill. That makes it likely there's a doc. Please correct my logic if you find it lacking rather than trying to fling suspicion at me.

In response to Ythill's post, I was here when Someone2 was VERY nearly lynched. I have been criticized for asking him to claim when I didn't realize how close the deadline was. I do find it quite odd that Someone2 never bothered to claim if he was bulletproof. When he was under fire and close to being lynched, he disappeared. If I was bulletproof in that situation, I think I'd have claimed it.

[TheStranger]

if you're bulletproof that means there's a (albeit slim) chance there's no doc

2. Why are you so sure there is a doc?

Can you reconcile these 2 statements for me, please?

Doesn't suggesting there's a "slim" chance of there NOT being a doc, also suggest that you're fairly confident there IS a doc? Your right, a doctor was likely, but to say that there still probably is one

after

my claim seems strange.

You still did not answer my third question of what you expected from me yesterday?



Ythill, I suspect you because of how you pushed the Lowell wagon over the Thok wagon. I also think it is uncharacteristic of a calculating player such as yourself to grow impatient enough to hammer lowell, especially with the roleblocker/doctor possibilities. I don't like the fact that Thok self-hammered after your vote. I don't like how you were the last on the RW wagon as well.

Streeflo undeniably lurked, his absence caused the no lynch. Ythill on the other hand posts extensively. That might normally be a towntell, but he does it in every game. So it's a nulltell.

[Setael]

You still did not answer my third question of what you expected from me yesterday?

That depends on how much of the thread you finished before day ended yesterday, which I asked you and you did not clarify. If you finished reading where we all stated whether we were a roleblocker or not, it would've been clear to you that we were trying to verify we had a doc in order to make it safe for a cop to claim. If you really have a role that would have effectively broken our assumptions and made it unnecessary (or at least less informative) for each player to make the roleblocker statement, I think you should've claimed.

Here's a hypothetical scenario that we're just lucky didn't happen: because none of us are a roleblocker, we're assuming there's a doc so the cop claims and calls for the unclaimed but assumed to be existing doc to protect them. There's a lynch and we go to night. We all wake up and our cop has been NK'd. We say "What? Is there no doc?" and you say "Oh, by the way.... I can't be night killed so maybe I was targeted when there was no kill and we have no doc after all."

You see why you not claiming your role was not real protown under the roleblocker claiming circumstances? But you can also see, I think, where timing is everything, though we just have to trust your word on what you did/didn't read and when.

[Claus]

Stranger, explain to me why the scum would try to target you twice, again?

[Claus]

I would also appreciate everyone's theories on why scum would target S2/Stranger twice over me or thesp, two people who have largely been considered townies for a larger part of the game.

[Ythill]

Ythill on the other hand posts extensively. That might normally be a towntell, but he does it in every game. So it's a nulltell.

Is this the product of a meta read or you simply taking my #489 at face value? I ask because a meta read of me will also reveal that I am comfortable dropping the hammer in just about any scenario. I say this in response to your apparent tendency to suspect hammer votes.

I don't like how you were the last on the RW wagon as well.

This is an extreme oversimplification. I entered the game and said hello (#485) when there were already three votes on RW. I finished my reread quickly and made two back-to-back posts, the first of which was a direct response to Thesp (#489). The second (#490) was my entrance analysis, in which my top three suspects were RW, Lowell, and Thok (in that order). In that analysis I also voted for RW (putting him at L-1). Then he went out of town and, as a precaution, I switched my vote to Lowell, my second suspect (#499).

After RW returned (#510) and before I got a chance to post, Claus voted RW back to L-1 (#513). This left me the hammer which, though I am comfortable placing, is a bit more of an important decision than a lesser vote. I finished the analysis I’d been working on (#515), answered a question about it (#517) and then considered whether or not I should hammer (#518). A milsynch would have put us at LYLO so I was being careful and taking my time but I did hammer RW (#521) and he was scum.

Saying that I was “the last on the RW wagon” is technically true but very misleading. Had he not gone to that color guard competition, Claus would have been the hammer vote and there’s no way I could have voted RW sooner than fourth because he had three votes on him when I replaced in.

Ythill, I suspect you because of how you pushed the Lowell wagon over the Thok wagon.

Other than for a moment while considering the RW wagon (#521), I’d suspected Lowell over Thok all along. My reread of confirmed scum (RW) suggested Lowell over Thok as well, reversing the momentary mind change of #521.

Additionally, I was playing devil’s advocate to Thesp to keep the conversation going, which should be evident from what I said to Thesp (#526) and what I said when I voted for Thok (#556). Remember that D4 was only 34 posts long.

I also think it is uncharacteristic of a calculating player such as yourself to grow impatient enough to hammer Lowell…

Impatience is a macrocosmic human trait. Even professional poker players, who only make a living through incredible patience, go on tilt under the right circumstances.

At the time I was absolutely convinced that I’d been correct all along about our scum, and the only thing standing between me and the victory was being polite to a replacement that was taking a long time to catch up. You’d been prodded and hadn’t even checked in. Note that waiting for you not only caused us to refrain from lynching Lowell for awhile, it effectively stopped the game. In spite of all this, I still gave you almost eight hours to check in before hammering Lowell (#612 & 614).

I'd also like to point out that lynching Lowell was my intent all day. I didn't lynch him out of impatience. I only stopped waiting for you out of impatience. During the eight hour lapse between saying I intended to drop the hammer and actually dropping it, any player who wasn't ready to lynch Lowell could have unvoted him.

…especially with the roleblocker/doctor possibilities.

Lowell had already claimed townie (#585).

I don't like the fact that Thok self-hammered after your vote.

Nothing I can do about this except point out the obvious: this is purely WIFOM. There are any number of reasons Thok might have self-voted. One example might be that the three people suspecting him had been explicitly finding S2 less and less suspicious (meaning that you are scum). Not saying that I believe this, just pointing out that we can assume Thok’s motivation to fit just about any theory.

The most realistic, methinks, identifies Claus as the remaining scum but, as is evident from my reads on Claus, I don’t have any faith in WIFOM as evidence in this regard.

[Ythill]

I would also appreciate everyone's theories on why scum would target S2/Stranger twice over me or thesp.

I already addressed this, quoted below out of respect for your LA status.

The motive for the second kill attempt could have been as simple as trying to second guess a doc and not considering the possibility of a bulletproof townie but we can ask ourselves why the remaining scum targeted S2 the first time.

Framing Seta doesn’t make sense, silencing S2 was pointless. The only theories that really make sense to me are Seta wanting to dispose of her pawn before he was replaced or Thesp wanting his defense of S2 to pay off (would apply to me too, except I know my alignment).

Another possibility might be to tarnish Claus' reputation. S2 was unlikely to ever be lynched because, in spite of a somewhat scummy play-style, those of us who were actively hanging mafia didn’t buy the cases against him. Claus had attacked S2 pretty seriously and then switched to hang RW at an opportune moment. Revealing S2 as town could embroil Claus a bit.

Honestly, I think this thread of discussion is kind of pointless. The two most important questions in determining whether Stranger is really a BPT are: Did the mod fudge the NK deadline by a day so as not to post game breaking evidence against S2? And why didn’t S2 claim when he was under heavy suspicion?

Finally, I apologize for being so wordy lately. Here are some questions I’ve previously posted. I would still like everyone to answer all of them. Thanks to those of you who have.

What is optimal BPT strategy? How would you play BPT early-to-mid game? How would you play it if you replaced in when Stranger did? Have any of you played extensively with DGB? Is there such a thing as a non-killing mafia role?

[Thesp]

I must admit I'm having a little trouble wrapping my head around this game. I must say there's a lot that doesn't make sense - I almost feel like I should ignore the no-kills and go back to basics. I'll try to get a good post in by the weekend.

Also, re: Ythill's questions, I'm not sure how helpful they are. I'm not sure I'd play any differently, I've played some with DGB, and there are non-killing mafia roles. I think how I'd play a BPT role is largely irrelevant to how I think

someone else

is likely to play a BPT (if any different at all).

[Ythill]

I think how I'd play a BPT role is largely irrelevant to how I think someone else is likely to play a BPT (if any different at all).

I agree but I believe that the similarities in the way four people would play it might be telling. Thanks for your answer.

What are the non-killing mafia roles? This possibility seems very important as it would explain a lot of our inconsistencies.

[Claus]

Ok, let's stop with this charade. I don't think I'm smart enough (or experienced enough) to use it by myself all that well. I hope Thesp and/or Ythill (if not scum) can use the reactions that happened so far.

I'm the doc. I roleclaimed only "town", not "vanilla townie" back there.

N1 CTD protected rite
N2 CTD missed the night order, then he was replaced D3.
N3 I protected Ythill
N4 and N5 I protected Thesp.

Then either we have scum that targetted Thesp twice, or some scum targetted thesp once and then S2/The Stranger. I don't see S2/The Stranger being targetted twice.

You may now also start wondering if a
Vig/Tracker/Doc/BLT vs Mafia Doc is more or less likely/balanced than
Vig/Tracker/Doc vs Mafia Doc.

I'm midway through a re-read right now. I hope to post it (and an analysis of my "lie") later today.

[Claus]

Relevant posts from my re-read.

Day 1:

Beastly/Seta -

32 - def. Thok/att rite thesp
92 - D_O Fos Beastly for not posting. Not sure what to make of this.
93 - Speaks a lot, but don't say much.
131 - Scumdar pinging. There is a new scummy player around: kuribo, so Beastly, who is not in the lowell bandwagon, decided to offer this alternate route, and to blame the L-1 bandwagon at the same time (without actually going that far to defend the bandwagon.) Kuribo is pleading to lynch Lowell? What about S2 and D_O?
183 - Didn't you promise us a re-read a while ago? Another scummy post from someone who was supposed to be "away". Anyway, votes S2.
217 - Rish (and others) think that beastly is under the radar, but beastly was active and wagon jumping.

232 - Seta's first post. mentions 58, 61, and 150 as scummy posts from S2. In retrospect, knowing the identity of LML and S_O, the above mentioned posts are not so scummy (see S2 comments below). Accuses LML of distancing from S2... wait, why? you didn't accuse LML of anything yet. Puts S_O and Rishi together in the same scum basket. Seems to cherry pick scummy quotes from kuribo as an alternative.

While this whole post is rational, scum can also be rational, and given the known roles, all the opinions expressed here benefit scum.

249 - "Death omen acts so scummy when he is town!"
275 - I don't like the last paragraph of this post, specially because earlier Seta cheers rite into voting S2. Then again, my analysis of this post may be coloured by the fact that I'm finding Seta scummy right now.

289 - Some people say that Seta requesting a role claim before deadline is scummy, but I just don't see the logic in that. I wouldn't mention this post, but since it seem important to some people, here is what I think of it.

Someone2 -

35 - fanning fires (see my post 42)
58/59 - Thok interaction -> Thoks votes S2, but agrees that Lowell is scummy.
61 - maybe going a bit too far for distancing? 63, coming to the rescue?
113 - Doesn't sit right to me. He makes a tunell visioned push towards lowell lynch.
122 - Accuses D_O for cheering Lowell lynch (currently at L-1) I don't think S2 scum would do this to a partner while staying on the wagon.
150 - is... strange. The fact that he refers to D_O defending lowell to attack lowell indicates to me that they are not linked, but the attack on lowell with the focus on Rishi's defense is not good either.
162 - Ignore the "slip". The reasoning is somewhat in line with the ammount of insight that S2 has been displaying so far. This is a hard one, but I think this post smells of town in general.

169 - LML offers S2 as an alternative to lowell.
171 - D_O also points his guns at S2.
194 - D_O says S2 slip is pretty bad, and wants an explanation (it already came!) he doesn't vote, but if beastly is scum, there is already scum voting S2.
So, right after the slip and strange post (pointed out by CTD), we have Lowell and D_O, who are scum, and lowell (who everyone suspects), accusing S2. With suspicion mounting on Kuribo, and Lowell still in the lynch range, I would expect scum not to be SO fast bussing their partner like this, so the reaction of LML and D_O points to a possible S2 town.

175 - Like the response.

Streeflo/Ythill

64 - I don't see scum doing this.
78 - don't know what to make out of this.
94 - accused by Thok/LML
101 - again accused by LML to be Lowell's partner when Lowell is in danger of being lynched.
123 - townie like post. I also don't understand what Lowell saw on streeflo.

Day 1 summary:

Beastly seems lurkish, and then comes back with some scummy posts pushing the popular wagons. Seta replaces and resumes this policy, albeit with a more rational tone. Also, S_O and LML seemed to ignore beastly (and each other) most of the day.

Someone 2 did some incongruent posts, but my re-read netted the same result, this seems like his best effort game. The attacks from S_O and LML on his wagon seemed to strong to be bussing.

Streeflo was largely absent during most of D1. While there is nothing there to accuse him, he also doesn't "have an alibi", specially because LML seems to lightly fos him a few times.

My result from my D1 re-read is that Setael is most likely our scum, followed by Ythill, and S2 as a distant third (heh, not that different from my last re-read).

It helps that I can see Seta trying to target Thesp, who led two wagons on her scumbuddies, but not me, who had a "good feeling about her", and then S2, who was getting low in the charts in regards to scummyness.

I will go out for lunch, then resume with re-reads of the following days. Thanks for reading