Mini 546: House Mafia - Game Over

[shaft.ed]

Adel, with your last second Ergo vote, it looks like you had just logged in as you have one other post in a newbie game at 5:39 and that one is at 5:41. Could you tell me what your intent was with that vote?

[Adel]

Adel, with your last second Ergo vote, it looks like you had just logged in as you have one other post in a newbie game at 5:39 and that one is at 5:41. Could you tell me what your intent was with that vote?

are you talking about my second daykill attempt?

[shaft.ed]

No I was referring to when Near's clock ran out.

[shaft.ed]

Why did this game die? It was moving along so well the entire time. I'm a sad puppy.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I suggest we all take a time during the weekend to reread some key portions of the thread and then all of us post a fairly detailed post on which 2 players we believe are the likeliest to be the last 2 scum based on both behaviour and interaction.

and do it at the same time.

Yea.

[vollkan]

curiouskarmadog to N

{No interaction with Dean}
{Near}
94: Justifying his investigation choice. Says he gets a "townie vibe" of N and shaft.ed
97: Okay,in post 716 N says the following:

Isn't it possible that CDK is a scum himself? His reasoning of picking vollkan is understandable, but

I am still of the belief that TG is scum (so it would have been a wase of an investigation).

For me, CDK not investigating TG when he thought TG was a scum is difficult to believe. If CDK is a scum, tho it might be desirable to say this in order to try to get TG killed. Of course you couldn't have said "I checked out TG and he's a scum" because then TG would accuse you of being a scum. Isn't this too convenient of a way to try lynch TG? I mean, I am basing most of this on my belief that if you thought TG had highest chance of being a scum, you should have checked him out.

On the side note, despite the possibility of CDK being a scum, I think most likely vollkan is a good doctor. If CDK was a scum, he must have been concerned about other people being suspicious of himself or vollkan sometime down the road. Down the road, if one of the gets lynched or get checked out because of another twist, it would basically prove that the other is a scum also (actually, it would prove cdk is a scum if vollkan was scum, but not vice versa).

This is really speculative and weak. Moreover, note the effort by N to tie CKD being scum to me being scum. He says it would "basically prove" that I am scum.

Anyway, CKD responds with this:

interesting theory, what happens if TG turns out scum? Did I bus both my partners from the beginning both days? Where does the scum paranoina stop? Given your theory, who do you think we should lynch? TG to test me? Me to test...what?..Vollkan..top test what? NOw that you have put it out there..what now? If my investigation was understandable, why are we having this conversation?

Again, I wasnt sure that vollkan was town. I felt that he has been playing differently this game than others I have been in with him. It is documented in the thread that I have felt that way before we knew the "twist" investigation. This vollkan investigatio has provided us much more information than you are giving it credit

CKD avoids attacking N's craplogic (cf. shaft.ed). However, I don't think that is necessary scummy, and CKD's explanation is reasonable.

And then:

My second hunch is CKD. In the back of my mind, I just know it's him. But then again, I am somewhat reserved in expressing this suspicion, because I am slightly concerned that this is because I think my theory on CKD is kind of cool and I am almost "hoping" CKD is a scum so I can look smart.

Again, N is just waving his arms and declaring suspicion of CKD.

98: In response to N

Near, I am confused...do you think TG is scum and I am bussing again (wasnt that your theory before, I could be wrong?) or that TG is town and I am just trying to get a townie lynched? Your hunch (and that is what it is because I have them frequently) is that my attack on armix was all a ruse?

I think you just think I am scum, and you was basing all theories around that. What are your thoughts on Adel then? She seems to be agreeing with most everything I say. From anyone else I would be flattered, but from Adel is just freaks me out..your thoughts?

Near, I notice you have a lot of theories but no votes (not even an FoS atm) ...seems like you are playing it safe..if you think I am scum, place a vote on me...ask me some questions, pick my brain...but this eluding is silly (and slightly scummy).

Near...please provide three reasons why you think I MIGHT be scum.

Potentially HUGE slip

- Near NEVER suggested that CKD bussed armlx. Guilty conscience?

Then we have the weird turn of CKD's questioning on to Adel.

Also, CKD is kidgloving N here in that he never directly calls N out for his bullshit attacks. In fact, he encourages N.

133: Pushes Erg0 lynch over N
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The exchange between these two is odd, but I want others to comment on it as well. N was so self-assured around CKD, but his attacks were so dreadful.

PookyTheMagicalBear to N

No interaction.

Adel

45: Asks me to meta-check Dean.
84: Wouldn't feel bad about quicklynching N
86: Asks N to hammer TG
100: Votes N
112: Votes shaft.ed as deadline looms
114: Apparently mistook shaft,ed and Erg0 (What do you mean?) Votes erg0
~~~~~~~~
Adel, why did you lose the desire you had for a N lynch (evidenced by your vote for him)?

shaft.ed

15: Accuses Dean of being scum trying to look active
34: Ranks Dean as a lurker on scumdar (armlx at top)
41: Asks for Dean replacement
43: Ditto as 41
73: Trashes N's anti-CKD argument.
80: Notes the errancy in N's ++ing. Notes N seems to have dropped CKD as scum.
81: Calls out N for the stupid lynching collapse N had
82: Suggests N is trying to give himself an out
85: Swipes at N for deflection
87: Wants N to list first
95: Votes N over actions at the end of the previous day
99: Again blasts N over the emotion. Promises a larger case
105: Suggests N is milking his inexperience
107: Scathing analysis of N
And..of course, he held off saving N
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Unless shaft.ed has engaged in hyper-bussing (which is quite unlikely imo) he isn't scum. Of all the players reviewed thus far, shaft.ed is the most protown for me. In fact, my recollection of the fact that my previous analysis of him turned up very little, combined with the fact that his behaviour seems to genuinely pursue N, earns shaft.ed the exceedingly rare status of receiving a

30%

. (*gasp* I drop below 50%)

It will take a LOT of convincing to make me perceive shaft.ed as viable scum. For that reason, I am henceforth focussing on CKD, Pooky and Adel.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I agree with you entirely on shafted.

So he is basically not going to get lynched.

[curiouskarmadog]

Potentially HUGE slip

- Near NEVER suggested that CKD bussed armlx. Guilty conscience?

the problem with reading people in a vaccum is you miss the context in which somethings are said.

interesting theory, what happens if TG turns out scum? Did I bus both my partners from the beginning both days? Where does the scum paranoina stop? Given your theory, who do you think we should lynch? TG to test me? Me to test...what?..Vollkan..top test what? NOw that you have put it out there..what now? If my investigation was understandable, why are we having this conversation?

Again, I wasnt sure that vollkan was town. I felt that he has been playing differently this game than others I have been in with him. It is documented in the thread that I have felt that way before we knew the "twist" investigation. This vollkan investigatio has provided us much more information than you are giving it credit

First, if we lynch TG and he turns out scum, then it's still possible that you are a scum. This would be a case of extreme bussing

. In fact, because it's so extreme, you might do it. Especially in this game where there is no cop and in the future rounds we don't know what the twists are. If TG turns out to be a scum, maybe you thought there is no way we ever doubt your pro-town.

he did imply that I was bussing TG and that it was extreme (I took that to mean that bussing TG and armix was extreme, because what was exactly extreme about my bussing TG alone? ALso, on several times I attacked Near's attacks of others, so I dont really understand your "kid glove" comment either..Ultimately, the only real strike against me was Near's death, and my push for Ergo's death over Near's....I just thought he was scummy..and if you remember, Ergo was acting quite differently at the end of the day yesterday and YOUR vote was there too vollkan, meaning that you felt he was just as scummy as I.

at any rate, I will not be around this weekend, so I will get on this as soon as possible, I need to finish my reread of armix.

[Adel]

@ckd if you are scum you rock.

[shaft.ed]

I'm scheduled for overnight experiments again today. If these go through I'll have time to get some thorough late-night analysis in. But I'm glad to see the game picking up again.

My opinion of the CKD to Near interaction was basically what vollkan said here:

N was so self-assured around CKD, but his attacks were so dreadful.

Near was also filp-flopping his suspicion of CKD. I hadn't really noticed anything majorly wrong in CKD's responses to Near, though I was surprised that he didn't find Near scummy.

[Claus]

Santa Claus is back to town, children!

Why did this game die?

The game is not going to die. There IS a two week deadline (I believe that Albert posted it on the 10th of march or something.) AND all players have posted today (even pooky, wow!).

I'm kinda liking to watch you squirm. But if you stop squirming, me and
Albert may take some drastic measures, like tightening the deadline. I see no reason to do that right now, though.

Oh, and the rule for deadlines, with 5 players, is the same as it was before:
0 or 1 votes, random kill between the 0 or 1 votees.
2 votes, lynch.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Nice avvy Claus!

[shaft.ed]

Adel, with your last second Ergo vote, it looks like you had just logged in as you have one other post in a newbie game at 5:39 and that one is at 5:41. Could you tell me what your intent was with that vote?

[Adel]

I don't know.

[vollkan]

I've reread the game, focussing on Adel, Pooky and CKD.

Pooky

- He's been inactive and generally unhelpful - but he hasn't actually done anything truly scummy. I don't like his fan-flaming or lurking, but it does seem to just be the way he plays. He gets a

60%

CKD

- The fact he investigated me is, imho, a huge towntell. In declaring me protown, he ensured that I would not come under suspicion. He could have chosen someone less likely to post lots of content, and instead he chose me - despite the fact that I was coming under some heat for my TJM interaction. Largely, also, there is nothing that stands out as overly-scummy in his play either. Moreover, his interaction with armlx really does look genuine.

50%

Adel

- Adel is always difficult for me to get a read on - and I now believe that is the reason why I have been finding this game so tough. After I reread, she stands out heads and shoulders in scumminess. There was her weird tag-team voting with armlx. Her scumhunting for him doesn't look genuine - she makes no argument against him. It reeks of a bussing gambit. Then we have her hypocritical attacks on me about TJM. The icing on the cake is her hasty use of the dayvig ability - Adel is smart and she ought to have known the danger in using the ability without consulting me. The situation she put us in with that prevented anyone else from using that power, at the risk of losing the game.

75%

I am sure shaft.ed is town. I don't think Pooky is scum. And CKD looks town.

Process of elimination, and her being the scummiest by far, makes me comfortable in doing this:

Daykill: Adel

[Adel]

I'm town, so you had better lynch someone quick, and be correct in it.

vote: pooky

just in case it helps

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if i was scum i would've daykilled someone already

[Adel]

'k

unvote, vote:shaft.ed

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I realize i need to daykill in case Adel is townie.

DIE curiouskarmadog DIE!

[Albert B. Rampage]

We interrupt this broadcast to bring you breaking news. Everyone in New Jersey is now watching in horror as this Hospital Shooting shatters our trust in the American Healthcare System. More shots were just fired, and it is unknown who has died at this point. It looks like it might be...Adel. No wait, we have confirmation! Curiouskarmadog's corpse has just been thrown outside a window! It appears that the killer just appeared out of nowhere and shot two bullets in his temple before breaking an office window and throwing him out of the hospital. From what we can see, karma was nothing more than a good doctor intent on saving people's lives. How ironic it is that the life he couldn't save was his own. More on these tragic events after the break.

[vollkan]

HA!

My vigging of Adel was fake. A gambit. I still have my ability to daykill.

Now,

That leaves 4 of us:
vollkan - Vig power
PookyTheMagicalBear - No power
Adel - No power
shaft.ed - Hasn't declared..but I think he is town.

Now, our choice comes down to Adel or Pooky.

Let me declare that the %s and comments I made in my previous post were all bullshit. I just ran through and tried to spin things in such a way that could justify apparently killing Adel.

SO - what have we learnt?

1) Adel reacted by declaring she is town and voting. The voting bit is odd.
2) Pooky daykilled - precisely what I would expect from scum trying to quick-end the game. I don't see how Pooky could justifiably kill CKD so rapidly as town.

HoS: Pooky

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

look at it from the town point of view.

Townie would react the same way.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

because if I believe you daykilled Adel.

Then I have no choice but to daykill someone. IF she is not scum and the game is not over then the scum with daykill can daykill to end the game.

So obviously I have to daykill before the scum daykills asap.

[vollkan]

Pooky, you had 2 daykill targets:
CKD or Shaft.ed

I can't fathom you actually just choosing CKD as quickly as you did as town. Justify your actions.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I already posted that I thought shafted was town.

Because I have to make a decision instantly. IF I wait and KarmadogScum logs on sees your daykill, and then shoots for the win, I don't have a chance to shoot then.