Mini 546: House Mafia - Game Over

[Adel]

unvote, vote:pooky

[shaft.ed]

Wow, an eventful weekend. Still LA, but I find Pooky's actions quite odd. I really don't see how anyone would possibly believe that vollkan would daykill in such a position, however Adel seems to also have found it genuine. On the other hand I was finding Adel more scummy previously.

I think we should get a couple interrogations in ASAP as deadline is approaching.

[vollkan]

I'll get a thorough review of Adel and Pooky up tomorrow.

[shaft.ed]

pooky why didn't you at least try asking vollkan if his kill was real? Time stamps seemed to be close enough that you could expect an answer.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I didn't think he'd make a fake daykill.

Being complete illogical and all.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Deadline march 22 at 19:00 EST

[Adel]

if shaft.ed was scum i figure he would've killed by now. pooky lurked through the game and then tried to nail ckd for the win. how much of a reread is really necessary?

[shaft.ed]

Adel, unfortunatley from my perspective this is game is 50/50 right now. I'd also like to point out that the last two hasty decisions didn't exactly work out so well for us.

[vollkan]

I had the delusion that my dayvig gambit would either:
a) Cause an outpoouring of confession from Adel; or
b) Cause Pooky or CKD to shoot me, thereby outing Pooky/CKD as scum

I didn't anticipate Pooky killing CKD and throwing up a 50:50.

[Adel]

how was pooky shooting CKD less of an out that if he killed you, vollkan? By any normal read, as I've been saying for days now, CKD was confirmed.

[vollkan]

Because I had been clear that CKD was still a suspect, whereas my innocence has been long-established.

Thus,
Pooky kills CKD = Is it Pooky or Adel?
Pooky kills Vollkan = Pooky is obvscum.

[shaft.ed]

I didn't anticipate Pooky killing CKD and throwing up a 50:50.

You didn't plan that one out too well. No way he's going to shoot the confirmed town. That's a pure unadultered scumtell.

Adel vollkan was investigation confirmed. There's a huge difference there and you know that. Why do you seem so hurried?

[Adel]

between the day 1 lynch and the investigation of vollkan i felt that ckd was solid.

Why do you seem so hurried?

because I'm sure that I'm going to lose this game because I was an idiot for killing Erg0. Frustration. Pooky did the same damn thing in Lost Boys mafia, and I consider lurking into the scum win to both be a powerful way to achieve victory as well as a cheap way to do it.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I shot CkD because I thought I could believe Vollkan(the investigated innocent) was telling the truth in thread when he shot you. Because if I wait, CkDScum might come online and shoot me.

Since I believe Vollk/Shafted are town, I am obligated to shoot CkD after a Vollkan shot on you because if I were to not shoot and you were to show up town, then CkD could show up and shoot me.

Not only that if CkDscum signs on, he could shoot me based on the same logic I've used to shoot him and be in the same position as me.

As I know my own protown status, it makes shooting him much better as an option then waiting for him to shoot me.

You used your vig because supposedly you thought it was possible for the scum to have multiple daykills and to be able to use them to end the game in a victoryfor them.(because honestly if they used multiple day vigs and it didnt end the game, how the hell would they survive the backlash)

I'm fairly sure that the circumstances surrounding your dayvig are MUCH MUCH worse than those surrounding mine.

Tying this to Lost Boys is silly because I have been lurking across the board over this time period due to reasons entirely unrelated to alignment.

It's just silly sensationalism at its worst.

[Adel]

I totally messed up by living until endgame. The playstyle I used in this game is optimized for drawing the NK and the attention of overeager scum that will out themselves by lynching me. I feel like I've lost this game for the town and the more I type at this point the more damage I do.
I'll take the blame for this loss.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

nice drama there.

surely you could've forseen that a different playstyle would be necesarry for a game where the opening post says that the scum do not nightkill?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

you posted this on Feb Eighteenth

Quote:
volkan - good doc
pooky - good doc
ckd - good doc
adel - obvious good doc

TG, Shaft.ed, Erg0, Near each have 50% chance of being an accurate lynch target.

Guide me through the logic you used to make that post.

[Adel]

I felt that pooky would catch enough static for lurking that I didn't have to press the matter, and since I didn't have a tell against pooky I pressed the case against those I was the most suspicious of.

My playstyle choice was one of habit, not analysis.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

what? how does this lead you to the conclusion that those people are innocent?

[vollkan]

*headdesk* I had a PBPA of Pooky done up to post 55, then I accidentally closed the ta b I was writing in. My biggest criticisms of him to that point were:
1) That his attacks on my play were thinly-disguised policy arguments - boiling down to him not liking that my play could potentially be scummy
2) His hypocrisy over CKD's hunch vote (pooky suggested a hunch was insufficient, despite having been clear in his rejection of the value of reasons)

I liked his explanation in 52 of his play wrt shaft.ed

55: Says he was trying to lead armlx around to see how he behaved.
56: Says he has posted "other" genuine things, aside from his attacks on me
57-62: Palaver. N is lynched in the meanwhile.
63: Thinks scum is on the attempted shaft.ed wagon

Which wagon page-wise?

64: Usual inflammatory remarks
65: Thinks that Erg0scum would try to save his buddy

Except that I also tried to lynch other than N...

66: Asks why Adel would have swapped if she were scum

Pooky, I can't see any reason for this regardless of alignment. Could you explain this to me - since you clearly see something that I don't.

67: Ditto
68: Ditto.
69: Wonders why N would choose not to be online

Your point?

70: Unvotes.
71: Has a daykill. Suggests daykilling everyone bar me.
72: Apparently forgot the rules...
73: Makes the good suggestion to lynch and not daykill
74: Quotes ABR about the daykill
75: EBWOP
76: "why do you want to kill me?"

who was this addressed to?

77: Asks me if I suspect him
78: Suggests his inactivity is not a scumtell

How do I reconcile this with your earlier remark that Dean lurking globally should not be treated as making his lurking a nulltell?

79-83: Discussion (not argument ) with me
84: Asks how Adel's game theory stuff makes sense
85: Mafia =/= RTS
86: "I don't believe that's an accurate assessment shafted. "

You may not believe it is accurate, but you don't explain how

87: "Would you choose to lynch yourself if it would gurantee I would be lynched next? " (that's @ Adel) Her response: "uh, no. I'm not too confident in shaft.ed being a good doctor." (

Mental note

: Come back to this from Adel, given her current confidence in shaft.ed)
88: "I wanted to see the degree of her certainty as to my scumminess as well as some other things."

Other things?

89: "I'd rather lynch adel that shafted. "
90: Asks whether scum can daykill
91: Questions validity of Adel's meta-ref
92: Suggests we all do reading
93: Agrees with me on shafted.
94: "if i was scum i would've daykilled someone already "
95: "I realize i need to daykill in case Adel is townie. DIE curiouskarmadog DIE!"

*sigh* This is one of those infuriating cases where scum and town would act the same, isn't it?

96: Town would behave same way
97: Explains why
98: Elaborates
99: Didn't think I would fake a daykill, since it was totally illogical
100: Again explains it
101: Notes the drama (I did too, fwiw) in Adel's playstyle remarks
102: Questions Adel for reasoning.
103: Ditto.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I identify the main points in the above. Largely, I am not at all convinced that Pooky is scum. His play is not significantly helpful, but it isn't exactly really scummy either. I would peg him at about

60%

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

1)I do argue against policies i believe to be pro-scum. I don't see what problem you have with that. I made it clear what I thought was scummy and why I thought it was scummy. I'm not sure how you expect me to play that.

2) This isn't hypocrisy, I wanted you to tell me why reasons are important day one when most of it is generally crap during day one. I certainly didn't think you'd take me seriously in my stance that reasons were unimportant. It was just one of those things were discussion lets me get an idea of where people are leaning on giving reasons/not giving reasons and the quality of the reasons necesarry for a bandwagon/lynch.

As to my CKD hunch vote thing, I'm always going to want more than just "a hunch" because a hunch is something fairly intangible. Anyone could just say "I had a hunch" or whatever. I want to know what hat hunch is based on, where did you first develop this hunch? was it in a bathroom stall? was it when you read up to line X? do you have anything beyond this hunch? When given the option, I am going to push for more, that's just basic play.

3. I thought she was trying to trick scum into moving a vote in a last ditch effort to move the wagon when Near had already bit the dust.

4. my point was that N has no incentive to not be online to stop his own lynch.

5. it was addressed to the only person voting me at the time, Adel

6. That was more of an attempt to get him to post more. A subtle hint that we would not tolerate lurking. My own conditions have more to do with my real life situation.

7. I don't think it's an accurate assessment because I don't see myself doing something like that.

8. Which is why I couldn't understand why you would fake a daykill in the first place. I didn't understand what type of information you could be fishing for, so I assumed you weren't fishing.

[vollkan]

1)I do argue against policies i believe to be pro-scum. I don't see what problem you have with that. I made it clear what I thought was scummy and why I thought it was scummy. I'm not sure how you expect me to play that.

The main policy arguments you made against me were that my tight playstyle and use of numbers would suit "volkscum". That doesn't demonstrate in any way that vollkan is scum - only that vollkan has a global playstyle which suits him as scum (and town).

2) This isn't hypocrisy, I wanted you to tell me why reasons are important day one when most of it is generally crap during day one. I certainly didn't think you'd take me seriously in my stance that reasons were unimportant. It was just one of those things were discussion lets me get an idea of where people are leaning on giving reasons/not giving reasons and the quality of the reasons necesarry for a bandwagon/lynch.

As to my CKD hunch vote thing, I'm always going to want more than just "a hunch" because a hunch is something fairly intangible. Anyone could just say "I had a hunch" or whatever. I want to know what hat hunch is based on, where did you first develop this hunch? was it in a bathroom stall? was it when you read up to line X? do you have anything beyond this hunch? When given the option, I am going to push for more, that's just basic play.

I was aware you were not being serious. My point is that you explicitly declined to give reasons BUT when it came to CKD you insisted on more than "just a hunch".

I am also an outspoken hunch-hater - but only for the very reason that a hunch gives no objective reasons. I can't see how you can maintain that you asking for something more than a hunch from CKD (ie. reasons) is consistent with your refusal to give reasons. Yes, you may not have been serious and were just trying to get reaction and so forth, but it sets up a double-standard.

8. Which is why I couldn't understand why you would fake a daykill in the first place. I didn't understand what type of information you could be fishing for, so I assumed you weren't fishing.

I was desperate for a circuit-breaker and, as I've said, I concocted this nice fantasy of the scum killing me and the town going on to glory. I was wrong, obviously (but, at least this will give me a really good meta rebuttal for any other time I make a mistake ).

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

One) I was not familiar with your playstyle/meta at the time I made the post.

I continued because I wanted to move you off the meta and get you to commit to something more more solid in terms of who you thought were town.

2) Double standards? Well what did you expect me to do, just say that I was tossing suspicion onto Shafted to try to see what Armlx would do? Would seem fairly poor for getting a geniune reaction out of Armlx... If CkD chooses to deflect like I did, then he should have a reason for the deflection that could be shown at some point inthe future. Obviously I have reasons for wanting more than just a hunch. I also have reasons for not fully disclosing my reasoning at the time. Both of these can exist without being in contradiction.

3) So you are human. Who woulda known.

[vollkan]

0-5: Mostly opening palaver. She BW hop, following other people

but I don’t get anything from that fact.

6: Thinks scum are more likely on the first team
7: Wrong game
8: Notes wrong game. Votes TG – another BW hop
9: Decent rejection of Erg0’s one-game meta. First suggests that scum will want to concentrate themselves.

This really isn’t convincing. I don’t buy the game theory argument she makes (this isn’t a RTS) and it seems to just be a shaky means of arguing that scum are elsewhere – making it a perfect deflective tactic for Adelscum

10: nothing
11: nothing
12: Seems to shrug off the fact that my team was, in fact, the first to fill
13: Is just “chilling” on TG’s wagon
14: Follows armlx onto CKD
15: Apparently this is all part of her new “random bandwagon stage”
16: Swipes at armlx’s bullshit stats
17: Erg0 is trying to hard

Huh?

18: Votes Erg0, jocular reasons

--Will pick this up later. I have some study to do right now.

[shaft.ed]

First suggests that scum will want to concentrate themselves. This really isn’t convincing. I don’t buy the game theory argument she makes (this isn’t a RTS) and it seems to just be a shaky means of arguing that scum are elsewhere – making it a perfect deflective tactic for Adelscum

I didn't realize she set that argument up so far in advance. Interesting.